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On 7/4/2022 at 12:24 AM, Old-Ruffneck said:

For you battery freaks

Mining Industry Warns Energy Transition Isn’t Sustainable

By Irina Slav - Jul 03, 2022, 4:00 PM CDT

  • There is a glaring problem in the energy transition that not many people are acknowledging. 
  • It is being built on the back of finite resources, and the mining industry is already warning that there aren’t enough metals for all the batteries the transition will require.
  • Because of the short supply, prices are on the rise, as are prices across commodity sectors.

The energy transition has been set by politicians as the only way forward for human civilization. Not every country on the planet is on board with it, but those that are have the loudest voices. And even amid the fossil fuel crunch that is beginning to cripple economies, the transition remains a goal. It is no secret that the transition—at the scale its architects and most fervent proponents envisage it—would require massive amounts of metals and minerals. What does not get talked about so much is that most of these metals and minerals are already in short supply. And this is only the start of the transition problems.

Mining industry executives have been warning that there is not enough copper, lithium, cobalt, or nickel for all the EV batteries that the transition would require. And they have not been the only ones, either. Even so, the European Union just this month went ahead and effectively banned the sales of cars with internal combustion engines from 2035. 

“Rare earth materials are fundamental building blocks and their applications are very wide across modern life,” a senior VP at MP Minerals, a rare-earth miner, told Fortune this month. He added that “one third of the demand in 2035 is not projected to be satisfied based on investments that are happening now.”

Because of the short supply, prices are on the rise, as are prices across commodity sectors. According to a calculation by Barron’s, the price of a basket of EV battery metals that the service tracks has jumped by 50 percent over the past year as a result of various factors, including Western sanctions against Russia, which is a major supplier of such metals to Europe.

The combination of short supply and rising prices is, of course, making the energy transition even costlier than it has been projected to be. It has also reminded us all that because of these metals and minerals, which are exactly as finite as crude oil and natural gas, the transition is not towards a renewable-energy future. It is towards a lower-carbon future. And this future may perpetuate some of the worst models of the past we want so much to leave behind.

A lot of the battery metals that the energy transition needs are sourced from Africa, a continent fraught with poverty, corruption, and political uncertainty. It is also a continent that is currently threatened by a new sort of colonialism because of the energy transition.

In a recent analysis for Foreign Policy, Cobus van Staden, a China-Africa researcher from the South African Institute of International Affairs, wrote that the dirty secret of the green revolution is its insatiable hunger for resources from Africa and elsewhere that are produced using some of the world’s dirtiest technologies.

More importantly, van Staden added, “What’s more, the accelerated shift to batteries now threatens to replicate one of the most destructive dynamics in global economic history: the systematic extraction of raw commodities from the global south in a way that made developed countries unimaginably rich while leaving a trail of environmental degradation, human rights violations, and semipermanent underdevelopment all across the developing world.”

It is difficult to argue with this forecast if you know the history of resource exploitation in Africa. Sometimes called “the resource curse” and commonly used for oil, it has been in fact, a notable feature of the colonial and post-colonial period. Van Staden notes human rights violations, corruption, and the perpetuation of low labor and environmental standards, and he also notes that pretty much all foreign businesses in Africa’s mining sector are doing all this.

Related: Nickel Prices Surge As UK Sanctions Major Russian Miner

Based on this evidence, it appears that besides non-renewable, the energy transition appears to not be very socially conscious. In other words, the ESG investment movement, which focuses on transition companies, might, in fact, be a movement that rewards companies that are neither very environmentally nor socially friendly. At least not in Africa. And there are no white hats because, as Van Staden says, “The entire logic of the battery metals race is to secure national prosperity at home—not in Africa.”

It could perhaps be argued that unlike the last time—the Industrial Revolution—this time, we have a lot more mechanisms to protect human rights. As true as that may be, there hasn’t been a lot of progress on that in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, for example, a huge country that is key for the transition because of its cobalt wealth.

Even with these mechanisms, there is no way to eliminate corruption unless all involved don’t want to eliminate it, which appears not to be the case with mining companies and resource-rich African governments. That’s the problem with corruption; it is hard to uproot. Corruption, in turn, affects environmental standards and fair compensation for workers, and the resource curse keeps its stranglehold on the continent.

The good news is that all these problems with the transition were more or less taboo until recently. Now they are being talked about more and more, and this would hopefully lead to a readjustment of goals or at least timelines to make them more realistic. Maybe, just maybe, the just transition idea will gather speed as well.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

The only problem is that all assets quoted about the sustainablity of battery technology is last decades tech. No one needs cobalt, Lithium is an abundant metal!

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8 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Here is the reality of the coal scene, a rapid ramping up of coal production. Coal is King.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Coal/Coal-Is-Staging-A-Major-Comeback.html

"But it’s not only traditional coal-producing states that are relying on coal, as many European powers seem to be going back on their climate promises by welcoming coal once again in the face of scarcity and rising prices. In a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), published last month, the organisation warned that global coal demand could once again hit an all-time high, with E.U. consumption rising by an estimated 7 percent, adding to a 14 percent increase in 2021. Many European countries are now expecting to continue using high levels of coal until at least 2023, as they face gas shortages and rising energy costs. 

In Germany, the financial officer of energy firm RWE, Michael Muller, said that the company will continue to burn more coal in the short-term to meet the country’s energy demand as it faces severe gas shortages. Germany has already recommissioned some of its coal-fired power plants, and RWE is expected to boost production further. Muller stated, “RWE is actively supporting the German government, or European governments, in managing the energy crisis.” He added, “so we’re also bringing back additional coal capacity to manage that situation.”

Meanwhile, in the U.K., which pledged to close the doors of all its coal plants a year earlier than anticipated by 2024, energy firms are now being asked to ramp up their coal production to help the country avoid blackouts in the winter months. The closure of a coal-fired power station in Nottinghamshire will now be delayed and several other plants will be on standby to provide the National Grid with more power if required. At present, the delays are not threatening the U.K.’s 2024 goal, but if Europe sees energy shortages and high prices continue into the next year this could soon change. "

here is the real reality ........

Coal is not ramping up.....  ??? deadcat bounces will not serve you well. The cat is still dead

with E.U. consumption rising by an estimated 7 percent, adding to a 14 percent increase in 2021..???????

 

and the reality

form the article posted below....................In 2021 compared with 2018 (in Europe) , hard coal and brown coal (mostly lignite) consumption decreased by 27% and 25.5%, respectively.

Anything looks good compared to 2020...remember  2020??? the year your master lead the world into an whopper of a recession (some would call 2020 a depression year)

 

now add up your so called ramping up of  2022 and compare it to 2018 and you still have a decrease in consumption in Europe...Like I said a deadcat bounce........What does 7 percent added onto 57.2 million tonnes get you???? did it make up for the 2020 collapse?????

Pie charts: Production of hard coal in the EU, 1990-2021, in million tonnes

 

Eurostat logo

 

Coal production and consumption see rebound in 2021 

© Vania Zhukevych / Shutterstock.com

In 2021, EU coal production and consumption saw an increase compared with 2020, experiencing a rebound following the low 2020 and 2019 values, which were partially caused by the measures related to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, production and consumption were still lower than the pre-pandemic 2018 figures. This affected both hard coal and brown coal.

Following a consistent decline since 1990, the decrease in the consumption of both types of coal accelerated in 2019 and continued in 2020. In 2021 compared with 2018, hard coal and brown coal (mostly lignite) consumption decreased by 27% and 25.5%, respectively. However, the full extent of the pandemic’s influence on coal production and consumption will become clearer in the following years.


Hard coal: EU production fell by more than three quarters since 1990

In 2021, the EU produced 57 million tonnes of hard coal (-79% compared with 1990). The number of Member States producing hard coal has also decreased since then, from 13 in 1990 to only 2 in 2021: Poland (96% of the total EU production) and Czechia (4%).

 

 

Pie charts: Production of hard coal in the EU, 1990-2021, in million tonnes

Source datasets: nrg_cb_sff and nrg_cb_sffm

 

Similarly, the consumption of hard coal has consistently decreased since 1990, with an accelerated decrease since 2019. In 2021, the EU consumption of hard coal stood at 160 million tonnes (-59% compared with 1990). The reasons behind lower consumption of hard coal are the energy shift towards natural gas and renewables for electricity production, as well as a decrease in the production of coke oven coke, used in various industries such as for the production of iron and steel.

However, hard coal production experienced a larger decrease than the consumption, leading to an increase in hard coal import dependency, consistently above 50% in the 2010s. Over this last decade, Russia was the largest supplier of hard coal to the EU, and its share in EU hard coal imports increased while the share for other suppliers decreased or stayed stable. In 2020, the latest year with data available, Russia accounted for 56% of hard coal imports, followed by the United States (17%) and Australia (15%).


Brown coal: the decline of lignite in the EU continues

Similarly to hard coal, the continuous decrease of brown coal consumption has accelerated from 2019 onwards. In 2021, the EU consumption of brown coal, mostly lignite, is estimated at 277 million tonnes (-60% compared with 1990). The vast majority of brown coal in the EU is used for electricity production: during the 21st century, more than 90% of brown coal was used for this purpose.

 

 

Stacked area graph: Inland consumption of brown coal by EU Member States, 1990-2021, in million tonnes


 Source datasets: nrg_cb_sff and nrg_cb_sffm

 

97% of the total brown coal consumption in the EU is taken up by 6 countries: Germany (46%), Poland (19%), Czechia (11%), Bulgaria (10%), Romania (6%) and Greece (5%). 

The production and consumption figures for brown coal are very similar, as it is almost always consumed in the production countries. Thus, there is very little trade in brown coal and the EU’s import dependency for it is insignificant.

 

 

Methodological notes: 

  • The 2021 figures are based on cumulated monthly data.

 

 

 

 

Edited by notsonice
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7 hours ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

In Germany, the financial officer of energy firm RWE, Michael Muller, said that the company will continue to burn more coal in the short-term to meet the country’s energy demand as it faces severe gas shortages. Germany has already recommissioned some of its coal-fired power plants, and RWE is expected to boost production further.

Meanwhile, in the U.K., which pledged to close the doors of all its coal plants a year earlier than anticipated by 2024, energy firms are now being asked to ramp up their coal production to help the country avoid blackouts in the winter months. 

Not only have China’s coal imports from Russia risen in recent months but so have the country’s production levels. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China mined 2.19 billion tonnes of coal from January to June, an increase of 11 percent year on year. 

China imports of coal, the world's biggest importer, are estimated falling to  182 million tonnes in 2022 and 176 million tonnes in 2023, from 246 million tonnes in 2021

Do you get excited over a falling in coal consumption in China in 2022 compared to 2021?

 

 

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(edited)

4 hours ago, notsonice said:

China imports of coal, the world's biggest importer, are estimated falling to  182 million tonnes in 2022 and 176 million tonnes in 2023, from 246 million tonnes in 2021

Do you get excited over a falling in coal consumption in China in 2022 compared to 2021?

 

 

Not only have China’s coal imports from Russia risen in recent months but so have the country’s production levels. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China mined 2.19 billion tonnes of coal from January to June, an increase of 11 percent year on year. 

Falling?? Re-read plz.

Edited by Old-Ruffneck
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12 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

How is this new technology on the rise if they aren't building any new coal plants?

Conversion technology...you never heard of that?

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Just now, Ecocharger said:

Conversion technology...you never heard of that?

No conversions are happening.

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12 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Global Coal-Fired Power Generation Falls as Prices Soar and China Slows

Global coal-fired power generation fell by 1.2% during the first half of 2022 from a year earlier, according to an analysis of energy consumption data, as a sharp economic slowdown in China and a surge in global coal prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine crimped demand.

Meanwhile, power generation from renewable sources increased 17% year-over-year in the first half, led by capacity increases in the U.S. and China, according to a report published Thursday by S&P Global Commodity Insights, a market research firm.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-coal-fired-power-generation-falls-as-prices-soar-and-china-slows-11662656704

 

 

Do you bother to read your own stuff, Jay? I guess not.

"...the biggest factor in lower coal-fired power generation so far this year was the marked slowdown in economic growth in the world's top consumer of coal, China, which accounts for more than half of global coal consumption. Due to renewed COVID-related lockdowns in the spring of 2022 and the crisis in the real estate sector, Chinese coal-fired power generation dropped in the first half of 2022 by 1.2 percent compared to the same period of 2021, per S&P Global Commodity Insights."

Nothing to do with renewables, that is pure hogwash.

Here is the big picture, for those who have trouble reading large print articles.

"In a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), published last month, the organisation warned that global coal demand could once again hit an all-time high, with E.U. consumption rising by an estimated 7 percent, adding to a 14 percent increase in 2021. "

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8 hours ago, notsonice said:

here is the real reality ........

Coal is not ramping up.....  ??? deadcat bounces will not serve you well. The cat is still dead

with E.U. consumption rising by an estimated 7 percent, adding to a 14 percent increase in 2021..???????

 

and the reality

form the article posted below....................In 2021 compared with 2018 (in Europe) , hard coal and brown coal (mostly lignite) consumption decreased by 27% and 25.5%, respectively.

Anything looks good compared to 2020...remember  2020??? the year your master lead the world into an whopper of a recession (some would call 2020 a depression year)

 

now add up your so called ramping up of  2022 and compare it to 2018 and you still have a decrease in consumption in Europe...Like I said a deadcat bounce........What does 7 percent added onto 57.2 million tonnes get you???? did it make up for the 2020 collapse?????

Pie charts: Production of hard coal in the EU, 1990-2021, in million tonnes

 

Eurostat logo

 

Coal production and consumption see rebound in 2021 

© Vania Zhukevych / Shutterstock.com

In 2021, EU coal production and consumption saw an increase compared with 2020, experiencing a rebound following the low 2020 and 2019 values, which were partially caused by the measures related to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, production and consumption were still lower than the pre-pandemic 2018 figures. This affected both hard coal and brown coal.

Following a consistent decline since 1990, the decrease in the consumption of both types of coal accelerated in 2019 and continued in 2020. In 2021 compared with 2018, hard coal and brown coal (mostly lignite) consumption decreased by 27% and 25.5%, respectively. However, the full extent of the pandemic’s influence on coal production and consumption will become clearer in the following years.


Hard coal: EU production fell by more than three quarters since 1990

In 2021, the EU produced 57 million tonnes of hard coal (-79% compared with 1990). The number of Member States producing hard coal has also decreased since then, from 13 in 1990 to only 2 in 2021: Poland (96% of the total EU production) and Czechia (4%).

 

 

Pie charts: Production of hard coal in the EU, 1990-2021, in million tonnes

Source datasets: nrg_cb_sff and nrg_cb_sffm

 

Similarly, the consumption of hard coal has consistently decreased since 1990, with an accelerated decrease since 2019. In 2021, the EU consumption of hard coal stood at 160 million tonnes (-59% compared with 1990). The reasons behind lower consumption of hard coal are the energy shift towards natural gas and renewables for electricity production, as well as a decrease in the production of coke oven coke, used in various industries such as for the production of iron and steel.

However, hard coal production experienced a larger decrease than the consumption, leading to an increase in hard coal import dependency, consistently above 50% in the 2010s. Over this last decade, Russia was the largest supplier of hard coal to the EU, and its share in EU hard coal imports increased while the share for other suppliers decreased or stayed stable. In 2020, the latest year with data available, Russia accounted for 56% of hard coal imports, followed by the United States (17%) and Australia (15%).


Brown coal: the decline of lignite in the EU continues

Similarly to hard coal, the continuous decrease of brown coal consumption has accelerated from 2019 onwards. In 2021, the EU consumption of brown coal, mostly lignite, is estimated at 277 million tonnes (-60% compared with 1990). The vast majority of brown coal in the EU is used for electricity production: during the 21st century, more than 90% of brown coal was used for this purpose.

 

 

Stacked area graph: Inland consumption of brown coal by EU Member States, 1990-2021, in million tonnes


 Source datasets: nrg_cb_sff and nrg_cb_sffm

 

97% of the total brown coal consumption in the EU is taken up by 6 countries: Germany (46%), Poland (19%), Czechia (11%), Bulgaria (10%), Romania (6%) and Greece (5%). 

The production and consumption figures for brown coal are very similar, as it is almost always consumed in the production countries. Thus, there is very little trade in brown coal and the EU’s import dependency for it is insignificant.

 

 

Methodological notes: 

  • The 2021 figures are based on cumulated monthly data.

 

 

 

 

Out of date.

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(edited)

Here is where the rubber meets the road, the rare materials needed for EVs is being squeezed at the source.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Who-Pays-The-Price-For-Americas-Aggressive-Climate-Policies.html

"In the Democratic Republic of Congo, hope for a better life dissolves as well-funded Ugandan-led extremist groups force children as young as six into cobalt mines."

Edited by Ecocharger
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16 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

"In the Democratic Republic of Congo, hope for a better life dissolves as well-funded Ugandan-led extremist groups force children as young as six into cobalt mines."

 

What a load of sensationalist BS.

"Electric vehicles make children work in cobalt mines!"

Exploitation long predates EVs.

Edited by TailingsPond

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On 9/9/2022 at 9:10 AM, Jay McKinsey said:

Aww, poor EWO, your tired of my continuously showing how wrong you are. Remember last year when you predicted that EV sales would decrease in 2021? Or how about that prediction that VW was going to take over Giga Berlin?

Ford CEO Farley explains why the brand isn't going all-electric like GM

Ford CEO says the future of the auto industry isn't "monolithic"

Your franchise agreements are collapsing, dealer agreements are about to take center stage.

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7 hours ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

Not only have China’s coal imports from Russia risen in recent months but so have the country’s production levels. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China mined 2.19 billion tonnes of coal from January to June, an increase of 11 percent year on year. 

Falling?? Re-read plz.

yep a rise in domestic production (of crappy coal) Imported coal has a much higher BTU content than Chinas typically unwashed coal.....and a dramatic drop in imports plus a drop of 2 percent in electricity production....

Plus the price of steel is crashing as the world price of steel plummets off a cliff. China steel is taking a dumpChina Steel Production

 Cement production has crashed

China Cement Production

Enjoy the next few months in Coal , the China recession is getting worse

 

China is on a collision course in coal consumption

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3 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Ford CEO Farley explains why the brand isn't going all-electric like GM

Ford CEO says the future of the auto industry isn't "monolithic"

Your franchise agreements are collapsing, dealer agreements are about to take center stage.

You are the one who said this couldn't happen.

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(edited)

4 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

You are the one who said this couldn't happen.

Im the one who stated the dealer body would sue and win...if they attempted such a grandiose departure. The Green movement has already been capped with partial implementation...Ford is about to blunder once again...

Ford gives dealers an ultimatum on EV sales

Ford has given dealers in its 3,000-strong network an ultimatum and a deadline: If they want to sell EVs, they’ll need to invest their own money into the endeavor, meet other selling standards and add fast charging at their locations.

Dealers will have until October 31 to decide to buy in. If they do, they’ll be authorized to get in on Ford’s Model e business starting January 2024. Those who don’t can stick with Ford Blue, the automaker’s internal combustion engine unit.

https://techcrunch.com/2022/09/14/ford-gives-dealers-an-ultimatum-on-ev-sales/

Edited by Eyes Wide Open
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9 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Im the one who stated the dealer body would sue and win...if they attempted such a grandiose departure. The Green movement has already been capped with partial implementation...Ford is about to blunder once again...

Ford gives dealers an ultimatum on EV sales

Ford has given dealers in its 3,000-strong network an ultimatum and a deadline: If they want to sell EVs, they’ll need to invest their own money into the endeavor, meet other selling standards and add fast charging at their locations.

Dealers will have until October 31 to decide to buy in. If they do, they’ll be authorized to get in on Ford’s Model e business starting January 2024. Those who don’t can stick with Ford Blue, the automaker’s internal combustion engine unit.

https://techcrunch.com/2022/09/14/ford-gives-dealers-an-ultimatum-on-ev-sales/

Yes you said the dealers would sue and win and  yet they aren't suing and they aren't winning. All you have done is point out another thing you were wrong about.

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📢   📢   📢  

The greenest vehicle show case.............. animal carts.... e.g. horse, cow, etc.

 

 

image.png.a7ffea009c6d0ecdea393aa25a8f95f9.png

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Oil and coal may recover to previous levels or they may not. One thing for sure if new consumptions levels are reached, don’t expect big gains. It won’t take long for renewables and nat gas to fill the void caused by Putin. The electric car will kill transportation oil consumption along with oil producers influence in politics. Coal will stay on a reduced plateau then return to stranded assets. This transition has been a couple decades in the making but is unstoppable. 

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On 9/16/2022 at 12:30 PM, TailingsPond said:

What a load of sensationalist BS.

"Electric vehicles make children work in cobalt mines!"

Exploitation long predates EVs.

This creates problems for cobalt sources, squeezes EV prices upwards, which means EVs are not the answer for universal personal transportation.

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(edited)

On 9/16/2022 at 3:41 PM, notsonice said:

yep a rise in domestic production (of crappy coal) Imported coal has a much higher BTU content than Chinas typically unwashed coal.....and a dramatic drop in imports plus a drop of 2 percent in electricity production....

Plus the price of steel is crashing as the world price of steel plummets off a cliff. China steel is taking a dumpChina Steel Production

 Cement production has crashed

China Cement Production

Enjoy the next few months in Coal , the China recession is getting worse

 

China is on a collision course in coal consumption

Coal production plans show increase in coal.

Edited by Ecocharger

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4 hours ago, Boat said:

Oil and coal may recover to previous levels or they may not. One thing for sure if new consumptions levels are reached, don’t expect big gains. It won’t take long for renewables and nat gas to fill the void caused by Putin. The electric car will kill transportation oil consumption along with oil producers influence in politics. Coal will stay on a reduced plateau then return to stranded assets. This transition has been a couple decades in the making but is unstoppable. 

No, you are talking Green revolution and government intervention which is related to a weak science. That science weakness is the Achilles heel.

Before long, this whole climate panic will be placed in proper perspective, and the anti-CO2 mania will be reduced to nothing but a bad dream. Reality will prevail.

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On 9/17/2022 at 11:17 AM, specinho said:

📢   📢   📢  

The greenest vehicle show case.............. animal carts.... e.g. horse, cow, etc.

 

 

 

image.png.a7ffea009c6d0ecdea393aa25a8f95f9.png

you still holding onto your horse drawn world? I bet you are doing the same with your coal powered steam engine

image.jpeg.bbb22224a8f8432c28bd69b95e5cdbb8.jpeg

 

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On 9/18/2022 at 10:02 AM, Ecocharger said:

Coal production plans show increase in coal.

Peak coal happened in 2013/2014

yet you babble on without posting real numbers on how coal is ramping up. 

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(edited)

the death of coal one solar panel at a time..........

 

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2022/09/16/solar-power-station-set-becker-minnesota-regulators-approve

Minnesota regulators OK building massive solar power station near Becker

Xcel says it expects the Sherco Solar project to be fully operational by late 2025

September 16, 2022 11:11 AM
 

The Sherco solar project

The Sherco Solar project will be built adjacent to the existing Sherco coal-fired power plant. All three units of the coal plant are scheduled to be retired by 2030.
Kirsti Marohn | MPR News file

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State regulators have signed off on Xcel Energy’s plan to start construction on the largest solar-energy project in the Upper Midwest.

The Minnesota Public Utilities Commission reported that, once completed, the Sherco Solar project near Becker, northwest of the Twin Cities, is expected to cut carbon emissions by nearly 300,000 tons annually as the electricity it produces replaces some of the power generated by the Sherco coal-fired plant that's set to close by 2030.

The cost of the solar project is estimated at $575 million. Regulators say the project will generate approximately $240 million for the local economy over its lifetime. The Public Utilities Commission gave final approval for the plan Thursday.

Xcel says it expects the Sherco Solar project to be fully operational by late 2025. When finished it will produce 460 megawatts of power.

In a statement, Xcel said the project is vital to its plan to transition power generation from coal and have all its electricity production be carbon-free by 2050.

In approving the solar project Thursday, the commission noted broad support for the plan from surrounding communities and deemed it a cost-effective energy investment.

Edited by notsonice

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