JM

GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES

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6 hours ago, turbguy said:

You do know that as price rises...

...demand drops?

 

You do know that as demand increases, price increases?

 

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3 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

You do know that as demand increases, price increases?

 

Depends on the elasticity of demand.  coal is not elastic as there are many substitutes.

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7 hours ago, nsdp said:

Depends on the elasticity of demand.  coal is not elastic as there are many substitutes.

So increases in the demand driven oil and coal prices are merely an illusion...that is your idea of economics?

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(edited)

Oil markets are now on an upward trend,

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/China-Is-Hoarding-Crude-Again-And-Thats-Great-News-For-Oil-Prices.html

"After recording the worst monthly loss this year in August, the oil markets have kicked off trading in September on a much brighter note on a trifecta of positive developments. Crude oil prices have been inching up after OPEC+ agreed to keep its current production agreement in place, in effect maintaining the 400K bbl/day hike scheduled for October, thus signaling that the markets are healthier than earlier feared. Reuters has also reported that OPEC+ will raise its 2022 oil demand growth forecast to 4.2M bbl/day from its previous outlook of 3.28M bbl/day.

Meanwhile, the latest data by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that U.S. crude oil inventories fell much more than expected"

Edited by Ecocharger

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The IEA has given an overview of future growth in oil demand.

"By contrast, the petrochemical industry that accounts for the majority of ethane, LPG and naphtha demand suffered relatively little from the Covid crisis and will continue to post healthy growth. Together, these products will be responsible for 70% of the growth in oil product demand through 2026 compared with the 2019 level. Globally, after a recovery period lasting until 2023, actions taken to implement the energy transition will slow demand growth. Strong demand growth in developing economies, however, will more than offset a contraction in high-income ones."

Growth will continue.

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17 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

So increases in the demand driven oil and coal prices are merely an illusion...that is your idea of economics?

No that is Adam Smith's model for market clearing prices. 

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On 8/31/2021 at 10:12 AM, Ecocharger said:

Just trying to inject some reality into the discussion, Boat...like the new climate science, some idea of the outrageous cost of the Green Dream, the ongoing demand for oil and coal.

Reality is exciting, you should try some of it.

Climate models 1980: Heat rises and we should see rising temperatures most significantly in the Tropical Troposhere pushing heat north/south. Ah, good times.  Science being used.

2007... The tropical troposphere had temperatures at the lowest edge of ALL climate models.  Good times. Way below predicted in 2007, so they changed it from a temperature gradient in the Troposphere to a correlative factor to ground temperatures....

2018: Now in 2018(haven't read the 2020 IPCC ~4000page absurdity yet) the correlative factor is NEGATIVE... IE ground temps are rising faster than the Troposphere when heat supposedly rises if you can believe that weird science.  Who knew, less dense air rises.... Who knew...

So naturally in 2018, the IPCC said the data from satellites was wrong, weather balloons were wrong, and their computer models were right... Pure genius. 

Climate religion, our models are right and the data is wrong.  That is how "science" is supposed to work right?

  • Haha 3

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Germany to reach 50% plugin electric vehicle new car market share by end of next year!

Germany, the world’s 4th largest auto market, saw plugin electric vehicle share jump to a record 27.6% in August, over 2x growth in share year-on-year. Non-electrified combustion vehicle share fell to a record low 53.2% with diesel at 17.7%.

August-2021-Germany-Passenger-Auto-Registrations-SQ.png

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(edited)

4 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Germany to reach 50% plugin electric vehicle new car market share by end of next year!

Germany, the world’s 4th largest auto market, saw plugin electric vehicle share jump to a record 27.6% in August, over 2x growth in share year-on-year. Non-electrified combustion vehicle share fell to a record low 53.2% with diesel at 17.7%.

August-2021-Germany-Passenger-Auto-Registrations-SQ.png

"Share" of what? You have a superb talent for leaving out the best part. Your regular habit, forget about context...Jay, context counts.

Numbers without context are meaningless.

Edited by Ecocharger

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2 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

"Share" of what? You have a superb talent for leaving out the best part. Your regular habit, forget about context...Jay, context counts.

Numbers without context are meaningless.

If you could read you might note that the first sentence of my post says "new car market share".

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8 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

If you could read you might note that the first sentence of my post says "new car market share".

Ah, it was your quoted article which failed to supply context....not good.

So I am not really interested in sales shares, but total vehicle stock shares. That tells us what to expect at the gas pump.

 

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(edited)

So the nations are lining up on opposite sides of the CO2 debate, developed and underdeveloped countries taking different sides.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Weaponizing-Carbon-Dioxide-In-The-21st-Century.html

"The power of CO2 was recently displayed by China when it signaled to the U.S. that it would not comply with its climate and decarbonization efforts if the U.S. continued accusing China of genocide. At the same time, China is increasing its reliance on coal, which will impact the global emissions targets set by Net Zero nations and allies. Notably, atmospheric CO2 from emitting countries is not beholden to terrestrial land borders.

It is unlikely that China will be the last nation to utilize its CO2 emissions as a geopolitical weapon. Ultimately, it is at the discretion of sovereign states as to whether or not they uphold their oil consumption, CO2 emissions, and decarbonization goals. "

Edited by Ecocharger

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1 hour ago, Ecocharger said:

Ah, it was your quoted article which failed to supply context....not good.

So I am not really interested in sales shares, but total vehicle stock shares. That tells us what to expect at the gas pump.

 

HaHa, what's not good are your reading skills. I provided the context, my quote didn't need to.

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16 countries are now over 10% new car market share for plugin electric vehicles:

Top-countries-for-plugin-vehicle-share-in-1st-half-of-2021-watermark-logo.png

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18 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

HaHa, what's not good are your reading skills. I provided the context, my quote didn't need to.

I am still waiting for news about total vehicle share on the road, not some temporary sales number.

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(edited)

2 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

16 countries are now over 10% new car market share for plugin electric vehicles:

Top-countries-for-plugin-vehicle-share-in-1st-half-of-2021-watermark-logo.png

This is another number-challenged propaganda piece.

Again, sales figures, I want the numbers for vehicles on the road.

10% electric sales means that 90% of sales are ICE which use gasoline...not impressive.

To close the gap you need over 50% sales to be electric, only Norway and Iceland make the cut.

Edited by Ecocharger

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(edited)

The policies of Biden & Co. will result in the rapid upsurge of oil prices.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/3-Bullish-Catalysts-For-Oil-This-Fall.html

"Bank of America commodities strategist Francisco Blanch has forecast oil prices to hit $100 a barrel oil in 2022 as the world begins facing a major supply crunch:

"First, there is plenty of pent up mobility demand after an 18 month lockdown. Second, mass transit will lag, boosting private car usage for a prolonged period of time. Third, pre-pandemic studies show more remote work could result in more miles driven, as work-from-home turns into work-from-car. On the supply side, we expect government policy pressure in the U.S. and around the world to curb capex over coming quarters to meet Paris goals. Secondly, investors have become more vocal against energy sector spending for both financial and ESG reasons. Third, judicial pressures are rising to limit carbon dioxide emissions. In short, demand is poised to bounce back and supply may not fully keep up, placing OPEC in control of the oil market in 2022," explained Blanch."

Edited by Ecocharger

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(edited)

2 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Again, sales figures, I want the numbers for vehicles on the road.

10% electric sales means that 90% of sales are ICE which use gasoline...not impressive.

To close the gap you need over 50% sales to be electric, only Norway and Iceland make the cut.

He who does not understand disruptive growth speaks. By the end of next year 7 countries will be over 50% and the year after that it will be 20, and so on. Oh and I don't care what you want. You can just enjoy watching one of the greatest disruptions in economic history unfold. 

Edited by Jay McKinsey

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2 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

The policies of Biden & Co. will result in the rapid upsurge of oil prices.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/3-Bullish-Catalysts-For-Oil-This-Fall.html

"Bank of America commodities strategist Francisco Blanch has forecast oil prices to hit $100 a barrel oil in 2022 as the world begins facing a major supply crunch:

"First, there is plenty of pent up mobility demand after an 18 month lockdown. Second, mass transit will lag, boosting private car usage for a prolonged period of time. Third, pre-pandemic studies show more remote work could result in more miles driven, as work-from-home turns into work-from-car. On the supply side, we expect government policy pressure in the U.S. and around the world to curb capex over coming quarters to meet Paris goals. Secondly, investors have become more vocal against energy sector spending for both financial and ESG reasons. Third, judicial pressures are rising to limit carbon dioxide emissions. In short, demand is poised to bounce back and supply may not fully keep up, placing OPEC in control of the oil market in 2022," explained Blanch."

But for the first time oil has a major substitute. EV sales are growing faster than the price of oil.

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Jay I believe you are correct that EV's are an inevitability in the mix of transportation and will be an ever growing percentage of that mix mainly due to political will and the Paris agreement.

Rightly or wrongly Co2 is perceived to be the issue. However I wonder how many tree huggers appreciate that for most people in Europe you will have to drive your EV on average for 4 years before you reach parity with an ICE equivalent vehicle??

https://cardealermagazine.co.uk/publish/electric-cars-need-to-be-driven-50000-miles-to-match-carbon-footprint-of-a-petrol-car-research-claims/209636

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(edited)

9 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Jay I believe you are correct that EV's are an inevitability in the mix of transportation and will be an ever growing percentage of that mix mainly due to political will and the Paris agreement.

Rightly or wrongly Co2 is perceived to be the issue. However I wonder how many tree huggers appreciate that for most people in Europe you will have to drive your EV on average for 4 years before you reach parity with an ICE equivalent vehicle??

https://cardealermagazine.co.uk/publish/electric-cars-need-to-be-driven-50000-miles-to-match-carbon-footprint-of-a-petrol-car-research-claims/209636

EVs drive a lot longer than 4 years so it is a non issue. If the electricity they use is completely renewable then it drops to 2.5 years for parity. If the power to manufacture the car and battery is also 100% renewable then it drops to 0 years.

I think anyone who drives an EV to cut CO2 realizes that the grid needs to be renewable as well to maximize CO2 reduction.

Edited by Jay McKinsey

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(edited)

11 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

But for the first time oil has a major substitute. EV sales are growing faster than the price of oil.

Jay, here is the reality in Europe, gasoline demand is zooming upward in Europe. With sustained high ICE sales, this will only continue.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Europes-Soaring-Gasoline-Consumption-Triggers-Rise-In-Oil-Demand.html

"As a result of stronger European road fuel demand, independently held gasoline stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub fell to the lowest since 2016 in the middle of August, according to data from petroleum industry consultancy Insights Global.   “The fall in gasoline, combined with a larger fall in fuel oil stocks, prompted total products inventories to fall — the lowest total volume since March 2020,” Insights Global said. The higher fuel demand has led to increased interest in light sweet crude grades among refiners in Europe, traders tell Bloomberg."

Edited by Ecocharger

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5 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Jay, here is the reality in Europe, gasoline demand is zooming upward in Europe. With sustained high ICE sales, this will only continue.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Europes-Soaring-Gasoline-Consumption-Triggers-Rise-In-Oil-Demand.html

"As a result of stronger European road fuel demand, independently held gasoline stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub fell to the lowest since 2016 in the middle of August, according to data from petroleum industry consultancy Insights Global.   “The fall in gasoline, combined with a larger fall in fuel oil stocks, prompted total products inventories to fall — the lowest total volume since March 2020,” Insights Global said. The higher fuel demand has led to increased interest in light sweet crude grades among refiners in Europe, traders tell Bloomberg."

It is just recovery from the pandemic. People were in quarantine last year and this year they are not. Any real economist can understand this.

Of course a real economist would also understand that ICE sales are plummeting. I'll help you out with some colorful charts:

August-2020-Germany-Passenger-Auto-Registrations-tidy-crsh.png

August-2021-Germany-Passenger-Auto-Registrations-SQ.png

Can you see a difference?

 

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