GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

Maybe the UK?

Do any trends jump out at you?

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

In 5 years those charts are going to look like this:

[Rob Plant + 2,605]

13 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Jay, here is the reality in Europe, gasoline demand is zooming upward in Europe. With sustained high ICE sales, this will only continue.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Europes-Soaring-Gasoline-Consumption-Triggers-Rise-In-Oil-Demand.html

"As a result of stronger European road fuel demand, independently held gasoline stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub fell to the lowest since 2016 in the middle of August, according to data from petroleum industry consultancy Insights Global.   “The fall in gasoline, combined with a larger fall in fuel oil stocks, prompted total products inventories to fall — the lowest total volume since March 2020,” Insights Global said. The higher fuel demand has led to increased interest in light sweet crude grades among refiners in Europe, traders tell Bloomberg."

However way you look at it the reality is that new ICE vehicle sales will plummet particularly starting in Europe. The second hand market for ICE will flourish for many years until these cars become too old and are scrapped.

New ICE vehicle sales are to be banned in many countries, the UK is banning them by 2030 and even banning hybrids by 2035.

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry-news-environment-and-energy/analysis-uk’s-ice-ban-have-global-impact

This will have a profound effect on ICE vehicle sales and also their supply chain. The supply chain will need to diversify or they go bust. This is similar to large parts of the supply chain for oil + gas in Europe where many have already diversified into offshore wind power.

Edited September 7, 2021 by Rob Plant

[Rob Plant + 2,605]

12 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

In 5 years those charts are going to look like this:

In 13 years in the UK it will just be 100% green

[Rob Plant + 2,605]

13 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

 

12 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

In 5 years those charts are going to look like this:

@Jay McKinsey You've done cars, trains, ships, now on Oil Price they are talking electric space travel!

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/A-150-Year-Old-Idea-Could-Lead-To-A-Breakthrough-In-Space-Travel.html

It would be a watershed moment for mankind if this tech actually did work!

Edited September 7, 2021 by Rob Plant

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

13 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

It is just recovery from the pandemic. People were in quarantine last year and this year they are not. Any real economist can understand this.

Of course a real economist would also understand that ICE sales are plummeting. I'll help you out with some colorful charts:

Can you see a difference?

 

I see petrol going up for SALES, and dominating the rolling stock...is that what you wanted to say?

That is good for gasoline demand. 

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

58 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

However way you look at it the reality is that new ICE vehicle sales will plummet particularly starting in Europe. The second hand market for ICE will flourish for many years until these cars become too old and are scrapped.

New ICE vehicle sales are to be banned in many countries, the UK is banning them by 2030 and even banning hybrids by 2035.

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry-news-environment-and-energy/analysis-uk’s-ice-ban-have-global-impact

This will have a profound effect on ICE vehicle sales and also their supply chain. The supply chain will need to diversify or they go bust. This is similar to large parts of the supply chain for oil + gas in Europe where many have already diversified into offshore wind power.

Yes, a free market would use ICE, not EV. It is necessary for the government to ban sales of ICE. 

This is not a technological transition, but an intervention against the market.

EV use is still a small part of European vehicle stock, and fossil fuels demand is still predominant.

Edited September 7, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

Demand for fossil fuels in Europe is robust and growing.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Europes-High-Energy-Prices-Are-Just-The-Beginning.html

"Germany is battling the highest inflation since 2008, thanks to higher energy prices. Typically, demand for natural gas this time of year is still low. Today’s high prices, at a time when demand is typically low, are worrisome for Europe, which is now looking at a difficult winter, with natural gas inventories at painfully low levels. The situation isn’t helped any by wind power, either, because low wind speeds and high temps are tamping down renewable power production, and in the process, paving the way for higher coal consumption."

Edited September 7, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Rob Plant + 2,605]

5 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

EV use is still a small part of European vehicle stock, and fossil fuels demand is still predominant.

Yes but that's only for another 10-15 years at most.

I do agree that it is a political decision with significant tax penalties if you still buy/Lease ICE vehicles, but it is what it is.

Edited September 7, 2021 by Rob Plant

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

2 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

Yes but that's only for another 10-15 years at most.

10-15 years is long enough to change course in public policy. I expect a change of course by then. The article above looks for higher European coal consumption going forward.

Edited September 7, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

12 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

I see petrol going up for SALES, and dominating the rolling stock...is that what you wanted to say?

That is good for gasoline demand. 

Petrol vehicle sales in Germany dropped from 117K units in Aug. 2020 to 68K units in Aug. 2021. Your reading skills continue to be pathetic, and I thought the big color coded charts would help you out.

Edited September 7, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[Rob Plant + 2,605]

3 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

10-15 years is long enough to change course in public policy. I expect a change of course by then. The article above looks for higher European coal consumption going forward.

Political will isnt going to change, why I hear you ask, because it is a guaranteed vote loser and therefore political suicide.

Can you even imagine a political party promoting the use of fossil fuels (especially coal) in its manifesto for re-election??? Its crazy at best.

Coal is dead apart from coking coal for steel production. In my country we will have zero coal power stations in 3 years time.

In 2010, the UK generated over 75 per cent of its electricity from coal and natural gas, with both being the most prevalent sources for energy for decades before. Now, in 2020, fossil fuel generation has reached a record low at 35.4 per cent. Further, the UK operated over 3,300 hours without coal, which amounts to over 60 per cent of the year. On the 16^th June 2020, the UK saw a period of over two months without using any coal-fired power for the first time since before the Industrial Revolution, now being over 138 years ago.

https://clearconsultinggroup.co.uk/how-much-has-the-uks-energy-market-changed-over-the-past-decade/

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

34 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Petrol vehicle sales in Germany dropped from 117K units in Aug. 2020 to 68K units in Aug. 2021. Your reading skills continue to be pathetic, and I thought the big color coded charts would help you out.

SALES is not the point, Jay. Total vehicle STOCK is what counts at the pump...I thought that by now that point would get through to you.

Unless sales of EVs exceed 50% of sales, total ICE stock keeps increasing at a greater volume than EVs. Your side just gets further behind.

Edited September 7, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

23 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

Political will isnt going to change, why I hear you ask, because it is a guaranteed vote loser and therefore political suicide.

Can you even imagine a political party promoting the use of fossil fuels (especially coal) in its manifesto for re-election??? Its crazy at best.

Coal is dead apart from coking coal for steel production. In my country we will have zero coal power stations in 3 years time.

In 2010, the UK generated over 75 per cent of its electricity from coal and natural gas, with both being the most prevalent sources for energy for decades before. Now, in 2020, fossil fuel generation has reached a record low at 35.4 per cent. Further, the UK operated over 3,300 hours without coal, which amounts to over 60 per cent of the year. On the 16^th June 2020, the UK saw a period of over two months without using any coal-fired power for the first time since before the Industrial Revolution, now being over 138 years ago.

https://clearconsultinggroup.co.uk/how-much-has-the-uks-energy-market-changed-over-the-past-decade/

The trend in that article I quoted above is to ramp up coal use for European energy needs.

Demand for fossil fuels in Europe is robust and growing.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Europes-High-Energy-Prices-Are-Just-The-Beginning.html

"Germany is battling the highest inflation since 2008, thanks to higher energy prices. Typically, demand for natural gas this time of year is still low. Today’s high prices, at a time when demand is typically low, are worrisome for Europe, which is now looking at a difficult winter, with natural gas inventories at painfully low levels. The situation isn’t helped any by wind power, either, because low wind speeds and high temps are tamping down renewable power production, and in the process, paving the way for higher coal consumption."

Edited September 7, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

7 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

SALES is not the point, Jay. Total vehicle STOCK is what counts at the pump...I thought that by now that point would get through to you.

Unless sales of EVs exceed 50% of sales, total ICE stock keeps increasing at a greater volume than EVs. Your side just gets further behind.

That is incorrect. The vehicle stock does not grow infinitely, it turns over about every 20 years. This means that about 5% are scrapped every year. If 20% of new car sales are EV then the stock of ICE drops by 1%.

[Rob Plant + 2,605]

10 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

The trend in that article I quoted above is to ramp up coal use for European energy needs.

Demand for fossil fuels in Europe is robust and growing.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Europes-High-Energy-Prices-Are-Just-The-Beginning.html

"Germany is battling the highest inflation since 2008, thanks to higher energy prices. Typically, demand for natural gas this time of year is still low. Today’s high prices, at a time when demand is typically low, are worrisome for Europe, which is now looking at a difficult winter, with natural gas inventories at painfully low levels. The situation isn’t helped any by wind power, either, because low wind speeds and high temps are tamping down renewable power production, and in the process, paving the way for higher coal consumption."

Coal consumption is definitely declining in the western world, Germany may be the exception in the short term as they stupidly scrapped all of their nuclear program.

Germany's high energy prices is not just down to renewables but also because they now rely heavily on Putin for their gas whether that is via Ukraine or Nordstream 2. I wouldnt want to be an energy consumer in Germany going forward, would you trust Putin??

Gas however is the transitional energy source between historical FF and renewables and will continue to play a key role in energy needs for many decades to come.

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

7 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

That is incorrect. The vehicle stock does not grow infinitely, it turns over about every 20 years. This means that about 5% are scrapped every year. If 20% of new car sales are EV then the stock of ICE drops by 1%.

Then stop the procrastination, give us the stock numbers, that is what counts for gasoline demand.

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

1 minute ago, Rob Plant said:

Coal consumption is definitely declining in the western world, Germany may be the exception in the short term as they stupidly scrapped all of their nuclear program.

Germany's high energy prices is not just down to renewables but also because they now rely heavily on Putin for their gas whether that is via Ukraine or Nordstream 2. I wouldnt want to be an energy consumer in Germany going forward, would you trust Putin??

Gas however is the transitional energy source between historical FF and renewables and will continue to play a key role in energy needs for many decades to come.

Coal has a very healthy future, supported by India and China.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Coal/India-Is-Running-Out-Of-Coal.html

"According to data from India’s Central Electricity Authority, more than half of  the 135 coal-fired plants were facing less than a week’s supply of coal before running out, and 50 plants had fewer than three days’ worth of fuel left. Six plants had already run out of coal entirely. 

“India is the second largest importer of coal despite having the world's fourth largest reserves, and coal powers over 70% of the country's electricity demand,” Reuters reported this week. What’s more, “overall electricity generation rose 16.1% in August, while coal-fired power output rose 23.7% from a year earlier.” 

While the Indian government has been trying to cut down on coal imports, that aim has proven impossible as the economy -- the third-largest in Asia -- continues to expand. India primarily imports coal from Indonesia, Australia, and South Africa. Indian electricity markets benefited greatly earlier this year from the trade spat and unofficial coal boycott between Australia and China, buying up huge volumes of the discounted Australian coal initially intended for Chinese markets. But even those stockpiles are not enough to keep up with demand. "

Edited September 7, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

1 minute ago, Ecocharger said:

Then stop the procrastination, give us the stock numbers, that is what counts for gasoline demand.

Why can't you figure it out yourself? I thought you said you were a brilliant economist? I'm tired of doing your homework for you.

[Rob Plant + 2,605]

12 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Coal has a very healthy future, supported by India and China.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Coal/India-Is-Running-Out-Of-Coal.html

"According to data from India’s Central Electricity Authority, more than half of  the 135 coal-fired plants were facing less than a week’s supply of coal before running out, and 50 plants had fewer than three days’ worth of fuel left. Six plants had already run out of coal entirely. 

“India is the second largest importer of coal despite having the world's fourth largest reserves, and coal powers over 70% of the country's electricity demand,” Reuters reported this week. What’s more, “overall electricity generation rose 16.1% in August, while coal-fired power output rose 23.7% from a year earlier.” 

While the Indian government has been trying to cut down on coal imports, that aim has proven impossible as the economy -- the third-largest in Asia -- continues to expand. India primarily imports coal from Indonesia, Australia, and South Africa. Indian electricity markets benefited greatly earlier this year from the trade spat and unofficial coal boycott between Australia and China, buying up huge volumes of the discounted Australian coal initially intended for Chinese markets. But even those stockpiles are not enough to keep up with demand. "

Like I said in the western world!

China and India have their own agenda but give it 5 years and the lack of investment currently being made in coal particularly in india will mean coal will decline here too. mainly because renewables will be cheaper.

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

7 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Why can't you figure it out yourself? I thought you said you were a brilliant economist? I'm tired of doing your homework for you.

You are supposedly the expert on EV market penetration, but you are silent about stock figures....hmmm

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

7 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Like I said in the western world!

China and India have their own agenda but give it 5 years and the lack of investment currently being made in coal particularly in india will mean coal will decline here too. mainly because renewables will be cheaper.

There is major investment in coal production capacity in China, so, no, I don't give anybody five years. By that time the politics will probably all have changed on the CO2 issue.

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

Russia plans to influence OPEC to stabilize oil markets going forward.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Lukoil-OPEC-Aims-To-Keep-Oil-Price-In-The-65-75-Range.html

"The OPEC+ alliance looks to keep oil prices in the range between $65 and $75 per barrel, and this is a comfortable price for consumers, Vagit Alekperov, president and CEO at Russia’s second-largest producer, Lukoil, told Russian newspaper Kommersant. Brent Crude prices have not fallen below $65 a barrel since April. The price of Brent briefly exceeded the $75 per barrel mark in early July, before pulling back in August amid concerns about the pace of global oil demand growth with surging COVID cases in many major economies. Early on Tuesday, Brent was trading slightly down at $72 per barrel. “I think that the OPEC+ alliance was created to last forever, not for just some period of time,” Alekperov said in an interview with the Russian business outlet published on Tuesday."

 

Edited September 7, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

European demand for coal and natural gas is pushing prices of carbon-based energy sky high,

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-06/europe-faces-energy-price-shock-with-gas-and-power-at-records

"Europe is facing a gas crunch after a bitter winter left storage sites depleted. Boosting inventories -- already at the lowest in more than a decade -- hasn’t been easy, with top supplier Russia limiting flows at a time when Asia is scooping up cargoes of liquefied natural gas that might otherwise head to Europe.

Europe can’t count on its own production either, with several outages disrupting flows from the North Sea. Domestic output is also in decline, with the giant Groningen gas field in the Netherlands possibly closing three years ahead of schedule. Gas prices are so high that they are trading at a rare premium to crude oil. "

Edited September 7, 2021 by Ecocharger

[specinho + 439]

On 9/6/2021 at 10:29 AM, Jay McKinsey said:

16 countries are now over 10% new car market share for plugin electric vehicles:

interesting. pardon my ignorance........ thought those top few countries have lower population density, hence, won't need to worry about running out of batteries in a road congestion common in other cities? And the speed limit is likely appropriate to make EV popular for the demographic common in this region..............?

But what would happen shall one impose these two characteristics on other cities or countries where traffic is generally heavy, all the time? Similar speed limit is going to make it worse?

Driving range and speed limit are still in the improvisation stage. In addition to chaos created to charge the cars in busy cities........ The right technology will take place when it is matured enough. Hasty act will create more issues that need to be handled, with astronomical costs later..............?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iceland#Transport

On 9/1/2021 at 3:48 AM, turbguy said:

Oh?

You have another planet up your sleeve?

I'm ALL ears!!

this planet is called "Refreshing" to the elders; "Why I did not think of it" for the young and not so young........