Electric vehicle market growth is a blessing for some metals — and not a big worry for oil

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

Electric vehicle market growth is a blessing for some metals — and not a big worry for oil

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/electric-vehicle-market-growth-is-a-blessing-for-some-metals-and-not-a-big-worry-for-oil-11620322546

 

[turbguy + 1,397]

Yes.

If I were in the petroleum business, I wouldn't be very concerned for the next decade, maybe two.

There is WAY too much installed base, and it's still being "installed".

Petroleum products are utilized in many, many other product streams.

The electric grid will have to change to support any significant growth.  That will take time and experience.

Edited May 10, 2021 by turbguy

[Kenneth g. Price 0]

Easy for you to say

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

9 hours ago, turbguy said:

Yes.

If I were in the petroleum business, I wouldn't be very concerned for the next decade, maybe two.

There is WAY too much installed base, and it's still being "installed".

Petroleum products are utilized in many, many other product streams.

The electric grid will have to change to support any significant growth.  That will take time and experience.

But you are making the common mistake of overlooking the most important half of the market. The investment market. What has CEO worried is that oil and gas investment is drying up fast. Unlike the simplistic myopia that afflicts most on this forum, investors can draw curves into the future and make their investments accordingly.

You guys always like to make a big deal about petroleum products being utilized in many other product streams but I can't find where that adds up to more than 10 or maybe 15% of the market. A rump rind of the industry will satisfy that and seems unlikely any of the expensive N. America production will be able to compete,

Edited May 11, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[turbguy + 1,397]

1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

But you are making the common mistake of overlooking the most important half of the market. The investment market. What has CEO worried is that oil and gas investment is drying up fast. Unlike the simplistic myopia that afflicts most on this forum, investors can draw curves into the future and make their investments accordingly.

You guys always like to make a big deal about petroleum products being utilized in many other product streams but I can't find where that adds up to more than 10 or maybe 15% of the market. A rump rind of the industry will satisfy that and seems unlikely any of the expensive N. America production will be able to compete,

True, I'm overlooking an important market.

And if these petroleum companies are now looking to use profits to buy back stock, why do they even NEED the investment market??

Besides, it's just a matter of raising their bond rate slightly to attract investment.

Edited May 11, 2021 by turbguy

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

1 hour ago, turbguy said:

True, I'm overlooking an important market.

And if these petroleum companies are now looking to use profits to buy back stock, why do they even NEED the investment market??

Besides, it's just a matter of raising their bond rate slightly to attract investment.

Lipstick on a pig. The oil companies are desperate and freaked out. Selling off assets, paying down debt, buying back stock, promising big dividends, investing in renewables, pleading that they are needed and should not be abandoned, bragging about cutting emissions, etc.. All to try and keep their investors from abandoning them. You will note the one thing they are not doing is looking for more oil. 

BlackRock Is Turning Up The Heat On Oil Companies https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/BlackRock-Is-Turning-Up-The-Heat-On-Oil-Companies.html

 

Edited May 11, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[turbguy + 1,397]

1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Lipstick on a pig. The oil companies are desperate and freaked out. Selling off assets, paying down debt, buying back stock, promising big dividends, investing in renewables, pleading that they are needed and should not be abandoned, bragging about cutting emissions, etc.. All to try and keep their investors from abandoning them. You will note the one thing they are not doing is looking for more oil. 

BlackRock Is Turning Up The Heat On Oil Companies https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/BlackRock-Is-Turning-Up-The-Heat-On-Oil-Companies.html

 

Then why is that sector doing so well in the open market and actually increasing dividends?

Lipstick doesn't pay increasing dividends.

There are plenty of other investors out there.  Some are actually just individuals, instead of firms who invest the money of others.

Certainly it's natural to scrutinize capital expenditures in worrying times.  If you can supply the market, why look for more until more is demanded?  I think they have a good handle on what's already available, but not yet developed.

Kinda like the Frito's commercial:  

"Use all you want, we'll make more"!

Yeah, I know, not supportive of the environment.   The market needs to address this with a much larger view. 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

26 minutes ago, turbguy said:

Then why is that sector doing so well in the open market and actually increasing dividends?

Lipstick doesn't pay increasing dividends.

There are plenty of other investors out there.  Some are actually just individuals, instead of firms who invest the money of others.

Certainly it's natural to scrutinize capital expenditures in worrying times.  If you can supply the market, why look for more until more is demanded?  I think they have a good handle on what's already available, but not yet developed.

Kinda like the Frito's commercial:  

"Use all you want, we'll make more"!

Yeah, I know, not supportive of the environment.   The market needs to address this with a much larger view. 

They are having a sudden rush of cash that looks really good after it looking so bad but they are still in the red. They are using that cash along with selling off huge amounts of assets to buyback shares which drives the stock price up (good for investors) and increasing dividends in the further attempt to keep their investors from fleeing.

If you are spending your money enticing shareholders instead of expanding oil operations then financing is drying up. If investment is free flowing then you are out growing the company, they aren't.

The majors are taking different paths but check out this on BP https://www.wsj.com/articles/bp-to-buy-back-shares-as-oil-price-recovery-boosts-profit-11619516485

Massive impairment charges saw Big Oil's proven reserves drop by 13 billion boe, good for ~15% of its stock levels in the ground, last year. Rystad now says that the remaining reserves are set to run out in less than 15 years, unless Big Oil makes more commercial discoveries quickly.

The main culprit: Rapidly shrinking exploration investments.

Meanwhile, the world's biggest asset manager BlackRock, has been doubling down on oil and gas divestitures.

Back in 2019, BlackRock declared its intention to increase its ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) investments more than tenfold from $90 billion to a trillion dollars in the space of a decade.

But now the firm is pushing out the goalposts on climate action and wants companies that he invests in to disclose how they plan to achieve a net-zero economy, which he has defined as eliminating net greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. BlackRock plans to put oil and gas companies under the clamps by creating a "temperature alignment metric" for both its public equity and bond funds with explicit temperature alignment goals, including products aligned to a net-zero pathway.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Big-Oil-Is-In-Desperate-Need-Of-New-Discoveries.html

Edited May 11, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[Rob Plant + 2,608]

4 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Lipstick on a pig. The oil companies are desperate and freaked out. Selling off assets, paying down debt, buying back stock, promising big dividends, investing in renewables, pleading that they are needed and should not be abandoned, bragging about cutting emissions, etc.. All to try and keep their investors from abandoning them. You will note the one thing they are not doing is looking for more oil. 

Hey Jay isnt oil used to make lipsticks 😅😅

[RichieRich216 + 454]

With less than 3% of Americans owning EV’s and most are liberal Assclown’s there only hope to get America to change is through Government intervention and make the U.S. taxpayers fund this bull shit! 

[KeyboardWarrior + 527]

14 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Lipstick on a pig. The oil companies are desperate and freaked out. Selling off assets, paying down debt, buying back stock, promising big dividends, investing in renewables, pleading that they are needed and should not be abandoned, bragging about cutting emissions, etc.. All to try and keep their investors from abandoning them. You will note the one thing they are not doing is looking for more oil. 

BlackRock Is Turning Up The Heat On Oil Companies https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/BlackRock-Is-Turning-Up-The-Heat-On-Oil-Companies.html

 

Why so much anger and jealousy with the oil companies? I don't feel this way for industries involved in renewables. 

[-trance + 114]

13 hours ago, turbguy said:

Then why is that sector doing so well in the open market and actually increasing dividends?

Lipstick doesn't pay increasing dividends.

 

Some apparently are borrowing money to keep paying high dividends. The company is losing money but the share price will drop if they cut dividends (as divided driven investors leave).

Add in that the executives essentially always receive some equity-based compensation it is in their best interest to keep share prices and dividends high even when balance sheets are suffering.

 

[Rob Kramer + 696]

Hey y'all I haven't posted for a long time. Got tired of renewable vs oil crowd. Just gonna drop a truth and then be going no time to argue. 

Truth: 

EV uses much more copper than ICE about 3-4 times more. And so does all green stuff vs fossil fuel stuff. Copper prices are booming . Copper producers need more sulfur to ramp up production... sulfur as a supply comes from heavy oil refineries. And a by product of copper is a host of other metals. Remember chips for coin mining and power consumption and the commodity run up for EV thats subsidized by ice sales. Green ain't happening without oil . Period. 

[Rob Kramer + 696]

15 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Lipstick on a pig. The oil companies are desperate and freaked out. Selling off assets, paying down debt, buying back stock, promising big dividends, investing in renewables, pleading that they are needed and should not be abandoned, bragging about cutting emissions, etc.. All to try and keep their investors from abandoning them. You will note the one thing they are not doing is looking for more oil. 

BlackRock Is Turning Up The Heat On Oil Companies https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/BlackRock-Is-Turning-Up-The-Heat-On-Oil-Companies.html

 

Lol 😆.  Your still as brainwashed as ever. Please try and remember before commodities ran up Tesla sold every car at a loss. Their "profit" call it lipstic was from ice credits and fossil fuel coin sales. No fossil fuel sales no profits. Aka a true pig. Please tell me PXT.to is "scared" and EV maker tesla is not. (No FSD, china hate is on, no semi, no new battery, no 25k car *an easy ice feet*, no cyber truck, no giga blah blah blah lie) but does have crypto pumps ... Elon just asked if tesla should accept doge coin ya the JOKE one! Bullish!!!. 

Have a great day Jay... hope you didn't go all in tesla the last time I asked . Yes I went all in oil and did wonderfully and moving into copper while holding core oil positions. (If curious) 

[-trance + 114]

4 hours ago, Rob Kramer said:

. sulfur as a supply comes from heavy oil refineries.

 

True, and there are already huge pyramids of the crap building up in Alberta. It is essentially a waste product at this point and there is no shortage of it.

Edited May 12, 2021 by -trance

[Rob Kramer + 696]

2 minutes ago, -trance said:

 

True, and there are already huge pyramids of the crap building up in Alberta. It's is essentially a waste product at this point and there is no shortage of it.

Chilies running short of it constraining copper supply.  

[-trance + 114]

13 minutes ago, Rob Kramer said:

Chilies running short of it constraining copper supply.  

It has uses for sure, notably sulfuric acid; it's just not valuable enough to be worth shipping.

[Boat + 1,315]

18 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

But you are making the common mistake of overlooking the most important half of the market. The investment market. What has CEO worried is that oil and gas investment is drying up fast. Unlike the simplistic myopia that afflicts most on this forum, investors can draw curves into the future and make their investments accordingly.

You guys always like to make a big deal about petroleum products being utilized in many other product streams but I can't find where that adds up to more than 10 or maybe 15% of the market. A rump rind of the industry will satisfy that and seems unlikely any of the expensive N. America production will be able to compete,

California will be the canary for forced EV’s. If batteries and any other types of grid storage don’t get several big boosts in tech dropping the cost to scale up, the economics of electricity might evaporate. Remember the Texas storm. If green costs more over 1/2 the population can’t absorb to much added cost. To me the green electric revolution still relies on many advances in many areas. It will happen for sure but the speed of change is still sketchy. I tend to think decades and hope to be pleasantly surprised.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

1 hour ago, Rob Kramer said:

Chilies running short of it constraining copper supply.  

Do you have evidence for that claim? 

I can only find shortages of sulfuric acid production due to covid.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

2 hours ago, Rob Kramer said:

Lol 😆.  Your still as brainwashed as ever. Please try and remember before commodities ran up Tesla sold every car at a loss. Their "profit" call it lipstic was from ice credits and fossil fuel coin sales. No fossil fuel sales no profits. Aka a true pig. Please tell me PXT.to is "scared" and EV maker tesla is not. (No FSD, china hate is on, no semi, no new battery, no 25k car *an easy ice feet*, no cyber truck, no giga blah blah blah lie) but does have crypto pumps ... Elon just asked if tesla should accept doge coin ya the JOKE one! Bullish!!!. 

Have a great day Jay... hope you didn't go all in tesla the last time I asked . Yes I went all in oil and did wonderfully and moving into copper while holding core oil positions. (If curious) 

TSLA is up 50% since then, PXT is up 60%, congratulations. Yes they spend all their money on growing the company so not much in the way of profits. But then you know that. The oil companies are spending their money trying to hold onto shareholders.

With so many EV's hitting the road from other manufacturers those credits are going to dry up fast. No Tesla isn't scared, they are about to triple production. They are even expanding the Fremont factory. Those products you mention will be on the market soon.

Yes Elon can be dopish and even a jerk at times.

Edited May 11, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

4 hours ago, KeyboardWarrior said:

Why so much anger and jealousy with the oil companies? I don't feel this way for industries involved in renewables. 

Just making a point.

[Rob Kramer + 696]

1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Do you have evidence for that claim? 

I can only find shortages of sulfuric acid production due to covid.

https://www.mining.com/web/an-acid-squeeze-is-the-latest-obstacle-facing-giant-copper-mines/

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

18 minutes ago, Rob Kramer said:

https://www.mining.com/web/an-acid-squeeze-is-the-latest-obstacle-facing-giant-copper-mines/

Well I guess the oil industry has a future...as the sulfur mining industry.

[BenFranklin'sSpectacles + 762]

16 hours ago, Rob Kramer said:

Hey y'all I haven't posted for a long time. Got tired of renewable vs oil crowd. Just gonna drop a truth and then be going no time to argue. 

Truth: 

EV uses much more copper than ICE about 3-4 times more. And so does all green stuff vs fossil fuel stuff. Copper prices are booming . Copper producers need more sulfur to ramp up production... sulfur as a supply comes from heavy oil refineries. And a by product of copper is a host of other metals. Remember chips for coin mining and power consumption and the commodity run up for EV thats subsidized by ice sales. Green ain't happening without oil . Period. 

This is what manufacturers are currently choosing to do. As yet, we have no proof that they *must* do this. Thus, I hesitate to draw economic conclusions without context:
1) How, exactly, is this copper being used?
2) What technological trends are/could affect these uses?
3) At what price do alternatives become competitive?

Just off the top of my head, I can think of several issues affecting copper demand:
- Automotive is moving toward fewer wires/vehicle, reducing copper demand for such wiring.
- Electric motor design is rapidly evolving toward higher power density.
- Aluminum motor winding technology already exists.
- Aerospace is shifting to carbon-based wiring to save weight.
- Aluminum wiring was used in houses once before; it could be used again.
- Copper is infinitely, economically recyclable.
- "Reserves" of anything depend on current prices. Higher prices --> more reserves to mine.

I've noticed that every discussion of raw materials involves at least one argument of the following form:
Predicate: Something in the market is changing.
Predicate: I, personally, was unable to solve this problem with zero effort.
Conclusion: The problem is insurmountable.

I know y'all can do better than that if you apply yourselves.

Edited May 12, 2021 by BenFranklin'sSpectacles
Typo.

[RichieRich216 + 454]

On 5/11/2021 at 4:26 AM, Rob Plant said:

Hey Jay isnt oil used to make lipsticks 😅😅

And many other products used everyday in every sector of our life’s!