When will oil demand start declining due to EVs?

[SKSharma + 1]

When do you think will EV population be able to cause a decline in annual consumption of oil? 2022 or 2023? 

[Rodent + 1,424]

Rodent's crystal ball: oil demand will increase well into 2040.

[James + 30]

The IMO 2020 fuel oil standard for ships will more than offset any decline in oil demand by EVs, not to mention the huge wave of new commercial aircraft coming in the next few years, which ALL run on kerosene-type jet fuel! 

 

My personal crystal ball says oil demand plateaus around 2038-2043 then slowly declines. 

[Guillaume Albasini + 851]

EV's will be cheaper than ICE cars when batteries will cost less than 100 $ /Kwh. In 2017 we were at 209 $/Kwh and the price is expected to fall under the 100 $ before 2025. When this will happen the demand will be very high and if the supply of battery and car manufacturers can follow the demand, the decline of oil demand could start between 2025 and 2030.

[PeterfromCalgary + 60]

At gasoline tank costs about $900 at an auto-parts store.  The cost for car manufactures is probably only a few hundred.  Furthermore, it is likely that you will never have to replace your gasoline tank because they usually last as long as you car. 

Lets compare the difference in price for a Chevy Cruise and a Chevy Bolt. A Chevy bolt with the government rebate cost about $30000 compared to a Chevy Cruze cost of about $18000  

That means you are paying about $12000 more for an electric car.  Assuming depreciation of 20% and financing cost of 5% that Bolt will cost you $3000 more in depreciation and financing costs in the first year.  A Chevy Cruze cost $1350 in fuel if you drive it 15000 miles according to fueleconomy.gov.  A Chevy Bolt costs $550 in electricity.  So in the first year due to interest and depreciation the Bolt will cost an additional $3000 - $800 (fuel savings) = $2200 for the privilege of driving something that gives you range anxiety and few mechanics are qualified to work on.

Another way to look at it is that if you drive 15000 miles per year you will save $800 per year in fuel with a Bolt compared to a Cruze.  That means it will take 15 years to save back the additional $12000 in cost to buy the Bolt.  Hopefully, your Bolt lasts that long or else you will never recover your higher purchase cost.

 

Edited June 6, 2018 by PeterfromCalgary

[sudhir + 9]

7 hours ago, SKSharma said:

When do you think will EV population be able to cause a decline in annual consumption of oil? 2022 or 2023? 

2022 is too early. It may happen around 2040 (again thats an assumption). 

[Refman + 207]

Might be achievable by 2030

 

[Billyjack + 58]

EVs will only become competitive when some sort of hot rail is installed on major thoroughfares to allow charging while driving. Once this is installed probably take 10 years for EVs to out number conventional cars. Then the only problem comes from finding about 3.5 times the energy to go the same distance using electricity as gasoline or diesel.

[Guillaume Albasini + 851]

46 minutes ago, Billyjack said:

EVs will only become competitive when some sort of hot rail is installed on major thoroughfares to allow charging while driving. Once this is installed probably take 10 years for EVs to out number conventional cars. Then the only problem comes from finding about 3.5 times the energy to go the same distance using electricity as gasoline or diesel.

Sweden is already testing this technology on a 2km electrified road

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/12/worlds-first-electrified-road-for-charging-vehicles-opens-in-sweden

 

And why did you say it takes 3.5 more energy with an EV ? In fact it's the opposite.  As it stands the combustible engine is less efficient than the electric engine. Only a part of the gasoline used in a car is used to move the car, the rest is lost as heat.  It's for that reason that it's easier to heat an ICE than an EV.

EV's are more efficient than ICE's :  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_energy_efficiency

 

[CMOP + 227]

Oil isn't going anywhere. We can see oil demand increasing for another 30-40 years. Ev's are great don't get me wrong - but they are damn expensive for everyone to quickly jump on board. 

[JunoTen + 118]

GM will launch its autonomous electric service in 2019 and scale it up in the two following years with hundreds of thousands of vehicles. Waymo bought 20 000 all electric Jaguars and 80 000 hybrid Chrysler vans for its autonomous service, which is supposed to launch in late 2018 and will scale up in the two years after.

If the services are successful (their goal is to be cheaper than owning a car) then oil demand should peak in 2020 or 2021 as forecasted by Tony Seba.

[CMOP + 227]

Interesting - thanks for sharing @JunoTen. Of course this is assuming all goes as planned. I still however don't see Oil demand peaking anytime soon. 

[JunoTen + 118]

Just now, CMOP said:

Interesting - thanks for sharing @JunoTen. Of course this is assuming all goes as planned. I still however don't see Oil demand peaking anytime soon. 

Sure, it still needs regulatory approval. But the Cruise AV plant that GM built can produce hundreds of thousands of vehicles per year. Considering that an autonomous car can displace about 10 regular cars, it won't be long before oil demand peaks IF the services are successful.

You're welcome.

[CMOP + 227]

There will be many hurdles along the way - there is no question about that. 

[Bharath + 12]

people ignoring electric trucks and buses which uses 30% of fuel. China producing 1 lak electric buses every year and this year india ordered for 3k electric buses . if this trend continues till 2022 almost 6-7 million barrels of oil dont have buyers.

1 diesel truck uses - 250 litres of fuel thats equivalent to 5 barrels of oil per day - 500k electric trucks by 2022 thats equal to 2.5 million barrels of oil will be un-used

1 diesel bus uses - 100 litres of fuel thats equivalet to 2 barrels of oil per day  - 2 million electric buses by 2022 thats equal to 4 million barrels of oil will be not required.

above are just assumptions. But even not taking EV cars into account easily 5-6 million barrels of oil demand can be offset by 2022.

My bet is 5 million barrels of oil demand will be offset by 2022. See this comment in 2022

Edited June 6, 2018 by Bharath

[Bharath + 12]

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/world/daimler-fights-tesla-volkswagen-with-new-electric-big-rig-truck-2584737.html

Seems difficult to produce 500k electric trucks by 2022. But may be by 2024.

But Electric bus figures are correct .

So still 3 million barrels per day will be offset by 2022 and the price of oil will be down to $35

 

[Guillaume Albasini + 851]

Already 39 electric bus makers are listed on Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_electric_bus_makers_and_models

The chinese city of Shenzhen has the world's largest e-bus fleet. In just three years the number of e-buses rose from 1277 to 16,359. Now the entire fleet  is 100% electrified generating a 20% reduction in Shenzhen's total vehicle emissions.

http://www.wri.org/blog/2018/04/how-did-shenzhen-china-build-world-s-largest-electric-bus-fleet

[Rodent + 1,424]

On 6/5/2018 at 1:35 PM, JunoTen said:

Sure, it still needs regulatory approval. But the Cruise AV plant that GM built can produce hundreds of thousands of vehicles per year. Considering that an autonomous car can displace about 10 regular cars, it won't be long before oil demand peaks IF the services are successful.

You're welcome.

Regardless of how many EVs are produced, there are only going to be as many EVs on the road as people BUY. I'm still confused about the displacing 10 regular cars thing.

[jimrdon + 1]

Everyone is forgetting one important thing. Our electric grid will not be able to handle any large increase in EV's!!!!

[Refman + 207]

4 hours ago, Rodent said:

 I'm still confused about the displacing 10 regular cars thing.

You're not the only one. It might work in crowded cities, but those folks are mostly using Subways, Buses and Taxis already. I don't see the average Joe living in the suburbs giving up his car.

[JunoTen + 118]

5 hours ago, Rodent said:

Regardless of how many EVs are produced, there are only going to be as many EVs on the road as people BUY. I'm still confused about the displacing 10 regular cars thing.

The Cruise AV will only be used as part of the autonomous service of GM. Once the Cruise AV that you asked for with a dedicated app drops you at work, it doesn't have to stay parked like a normal car but will go pick someone else. That's why it can displace around ten individually owned cars !

I suggest you watch Tony Seba's videos on Youtube for more information.
 

1 hour ago, Refman said:

You're not the only one. It might work in crowded cities, but those folks are mostly using Subways, Buses and Taxis already. I don't see the average Joe living in the suburbs giving up his car.

The autonomous services will have the advantage of providing door-to-door individual transportation (you will also be able to choose a collective van), and will be much cheaper than a taxi.

Edited June 7, 2018 by JunoTen

[Billyjack + 58]

On 6/5/2018 at 9:05 AM, Guillaume Albasini said:

Sweden is already testing this technology on a 2km electrified road

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/12/worlds-first-electrified-road-for-charging-vehicles-opens-in-sweden

 

And why did you say it takes 3.5 more energy with an EV ? In fact it's the opposite.  As it stands the combustible engine is less efficient than the electric engine. Only a part of the gasoline used in a car is used to move the car, the rest is lost as heat.  It's for that reason that it's easier to heat an ICE than an EV.

EV's are more efficient than ICE's :  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_energy_efficiency

 

I calculated the BTU's of coal burned to how much BTU's of energy in electricity is made. Then you lose another 5% warming bird's feet in power lines and another 40% to 60% charging battery with additional losses when the chemical energy is battery is reconverted to amps & volts and then mechanical energy to move the drive train. In short, you end up burning 4 times the BTU's in coal than is in a gallon of gasoline. The old problem that energy used to perform work creates entropy and 40% of the electricity in the US is still produced by coal fired plants.

[Refman + 207]

3 hours ago, JunoTen said:

The Cruise AV will only be used as part of the autonomous service of GM. Once the Cruise AV that you asked for with a dedicated app drops you at work, it doesn't have to stay parked like a normal car but will go pick someone else. That's why it can displace around ten individually owned cars !

I suggest you watch Tony Seba's videos on Youtube for more information.
 

The autonomous services will have the advantage of providing door-to-door individual transportation (you will also be able to choose a collective van), and will be much cheaper than a taxi.

I can maybe see families down scaling to 1 car instead of 2, because their car can drop one person off at work and then go home to be available for the other person during the day and then return to pick the other up from wok. Personally I'm not giving all my vehicles. There are far too many people like me that use a pickup to haul their motorcycle to the track, go camping, hunting, fishing, lumber or mulch from Home Depot etc etc.

So yeah I'm just not buying the fact that 1 vehicle will displace 10 or 15 others anytime soon, maybe by 2030 we might see some of this start to happen. As for Tony Seba, he's almost delusional in his projections for EV and autonomous cars. I'm not saying it will not happen, just that his time frame is horribly optomistic

 

[Rodent + 1,424]

18 minutes ago, Refman said:

I can maybe see families down scaling to 1 car instead of 2, because their car can drop one person off at work and then go home to be available for the other person during the day and then return to pick the other up from wok. 

I can't see that at all. Not to mention that would be twice the distance a car travels in any given day (there and back for 1, there and back for 2, there and back for 1, there and back for 2--versus there and back for 1 and there and back for 2). And it's not practical, unless hubby and wife have jobs that are one hour offset from each other*. What would be the odds?  And what about Jimmy's soccer practice and Suzie's ballet lessons? 

*Average commute time to work is 24.7 minutes nationally. 

[Outlaw Jackie + 78]

EV's will be powered by coal... Where else will the electrons come from? Solar... Windmills? Anyone who questions that is kidding themself.