Texas Power Outage Danger Until June 18th. Texans told to conserve energy!

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

3 hours ago, turbguy said:

What are the social costs you are considering when storing energy?

Social costs involve not only the private costs to the energy supplier but all subsidies and government policies which exclude competitive suppliers.

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

20 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Battery costs are dropping fast. They are already beating Natural Gas peakers. 

"According to a recent analysis of global battery-storage projects by Bloomberg NEF, lithium ion batteries are now undercutting gas peaking plants in much of the world. At an all-in cost of $132/MWh, a four-hour utility scale battery is now priced below the global gas-peaker plant average at $173/MWh."

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/electric-power/060821-natural-gas-in-transition-batteries-target-grid-balancing-lithium-ion-costs-tumble

 

Pretty vague stuff again, Jay, as usual from you.

Read the fine print..."tax credits and other government policies" explain the cost figures used here, which are not even identified as to specific location.

That means that the private cost is below the social cost, and my point stands.

This is another loser for your side.

Edited June 23, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

42 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Pretty vague stuff again, Jay, as usual from you.

Read the fine print..."tax credits and other government policies" explain the cost figures used here, which are not even identified as to specific location.

That means that the private cost is below the social cost, and my point stands.

This is another loser for your side.

Ah yes you present no numbers at all and you call my numbers vague. When are we going to see your non vague numbers???

Not identified to specific location he says when it clearly says it is the global average. HaHa

Losers are the ones with no numbers.

Edited June 23, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

43 minutes ago, turbguy said:

Gee!

Where can I buy one of those batteries?

5 MWh would do me just fine at home!  Maybe even 1 MWh!

 It's an LCOE number or LCOS as Lazard calls it. 

see page 22 https://www.lazard.com/media/451566/lazards-levelized-cost-of-storage-version-60-vf2.pdf

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

Report from Australia

https://assets.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/documents/resources/reports/battery-storage-the-new-clean-peaker.pdf

Edited June 23, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[turbguy + 1,391]

3 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Social costs involve not only the private costs to the energy supplier but all subsidies and government policies which exclude competitive suppliers.

You are going to have to explain that in terms that are more clear to my dense head.

For instance, In my consideration, social costs could include:

• Employment
• Public Health
• Public Safety

As far as I know, electric storage systems are not supported by subsidies (perhaps some R&D funding, but I could be in error). 

There seems to be a wealth of competitive storage systems, as well.

Can you give an example or two??

[Eric Gagen + 713]

10 hours ago, turbguy said:

Gee!

Where can I buy one of those batteries?

5 MWh would do me just fine at home!  Maybe even 1 MWh!

Just google '5 MwH lithium battery and you will get a variety of options pop up.  Here are a few of them that I found with a quick search:

https://www.ecodirect.com/Enphase-Encharge-3-Battery-Storage-System-p/enphase-encharge-3.htm?gclid=CjwKCAjwt8uGBhBAEiwAayu_9cB_Km51yj5ZEFIHq5Nikr58kjvnOysNEToztNyDDiPlLmGFOPTGixoCJ2kQAvD_BwE

https://www.renogy.com/48v-50ah-smart-lithium-iron-phosphate-battery/?gclid=CjwKCAjwt8uGBhBAEiwAayu_9YWDtOkHE2ify_bDN-L0vWxfJUyUGJzIlp3PdyfW6DAL3nqD5ktjPRoChUwQAvD_BwE

https://www.solarsportinggoods.com/products/humless-5-kwh-lifepo4-solar-energy-storage-solution?currency=USD&variant=31963813871756&utm_medium=cpc&utm_source=google&utm_campaign=Google Shopping&src=google&kw=&utm_campaign=gs-2018-10-26&utm_source=google&utm_medium=smart_campaign&gclid=CjwKCAjwt8uGBhBAEiwAayu_9eVSw01E0EZvCbITPic4PSrjbiqcwPH6NO-_Ei4y55fwopQKd4jnNxoCoaQQAvD_BwE

Be aware that if you 'just' buy a battery system like this, the lower priced ones tend to have a low voltage DC output, because they assume that  you are installing them as part of a system with a separate AC inverter.  Some of the high dollar ones are self contained with the inverter and everything all in one piece, but that might make them oddball or problematic if you decide to expand with more batteries and/or a home solar array later.  It's an individual decision to make as to which way you might want to go about setting up.  

[turbguy + 1,391]

1 hour ago, Eric Gagen said:

Just google '5 MwH lithium battery and you will get a variety of options pop up.  Here are a few of them that I found with a quick search:

https://www.ecodirect.com/Enphase-Encharge-3-Battery-Storage-System-p/enphase-encharge-3.htm?gclid=CjwKCAjwt8uGBhBAEiwAayu_9cB_Km51yj5ZEFIHq5Nikr58kjvnOysNEToztNyDDiPlLmGFOPTGixoCJ2kQAvD_BwE

https://www.renogy.com/48v-50ah-smart-lithium-iron-phosphate-battery/?gclid=CjwKCAjwt8uGBhBAEiwAayu_9YWDtOkHE2ify_bDN-L0vWxfJUyUGJzIlp3PdyfW6DAL3nqD5ktjPRoChUwQAvD_BwE

https://www.solarsportinggoods.com/products/humless-5-kwh-lifepo4-solar-energy-storage-solution?currency=USD&variant=31963813871756&utm_medium=cpc&utm_source=google&utm_campaign=Google Shopping&src=google&kw=&utm_campaign=gs-2018-10-26&utm_source=google&utm_medium=smart_campaign&gclid=CjwKCAjwt8uGBhBAEiwAayu_9eVSw01E0EZvCbITPic4PSrjbiqcwPH6NO-_Ei4y55fwopQKd4jnNxoCoaQQAvD_BwE

Be aware that if you 'just' buy a battery system like this, the lower priced ones tend to have a low voltage DC output, because they assume that  you are installing them as part of a system with a separate AC inverter.  Some of the high dollar ones are self contained with the inverter and everything all in one piece, but that might make them oddball or problematic if you decide to expand with more batteries and/or a home solar array later.  It's an individual decision to make as to which way you might want to go about setting up.  

Thanx for the links.

I was being tongue-in-cheek.   I want to store a MWh for less than $200 out of pocket.

Ain't gonna happen.

[Eric Gagen + 713]

45 minutes ago, turbguy said:

Thanx for the links.

I was being tongue-in-cheek.   I want to store a MWh for less than $200 out of pocket.

Ain't gonna happen.

I didn't think you were being sarcastic, and some of these options actually ARE quite close to $200/MWh in cost (at least before sales taxes) so even by your own admission this is in the range you would consider.

  My own personal plan for the house my wife and I will build in 3-4 years is to spend a solid $20,000 or sopurchasing and installing a battery array sufficient for 24 hour coverage with solar panels sufficient to maintain it (on average).  This should pay out within 10 years with no subsidies or reverse power sales at current electric rates, and pays out even faster if rates rise, or if you add in the value of protection from blackouts. These systems generally work for ~ 20 years before needing replacement, so they are clear economic winners. The last house we built in 2008, a home electric system like this was going to be $50,000 to install, and the cost of electric power was about 20% less than it is now, so we didn't do it - the system would never pay for itself before needing replacement.  Now the economics are flipped around thanks to the greatly reduced CAPEX, with the increased electricity cost thrown in as lagniappe. 

 Added to our plan to get an electric pickup truck, and I can add a vehicle that is very nearly free to operate (after considerable up front cost I'll admit) and it looks like a massive financial win to me.  I need a new pickup anyway, and the costs for that are a wash compared to an ICE vehicle.  

Edited June 23, 2021 by Eric Gagen

[turbguy + 1,391]

1 hour ago, Eric Gagen said:

I didn't think you were being sarcastic, and some of these options actually ARE quite close to $200/MWh in cost (at least before sales taxes) so even by your own admission this is in the range you would consider.

  My own personal plan for the house my wife and I will build in 3-4 years is to spend a solid $20,000 or sopurchasing and installing a battery array sufficient for 24 hour coverage with solar panels sufficient to maintain it (on average).  This should pay out within 10 years with no subsidies or reverse power sales at current electric rates, and pays out even faster if rates rise, or if you add in the value of protection from blackouts. These systems generally work for ~ 20 years before needing replacement, so they are clear economic winners. The last house we built in 2008, a home electric system like this was going to be $50,000 to install, and the cost of electric power was about 20% less than it is now, so we didn't do it - the system would never pay for itself before needing replacement.  Now the economics are flipped around thanks to the greatly reduced CAPEX, with the increased electricity cost thrown in as lagniappe. 

 Added to our plan to get an electric pickup truck, and I can add a vehicle that is very nearly free to operate (after considerable up front cost I'll admit) and it looks like a massive financial win to me.  I need a new pickup anyway, and the costs for that are a wash compared to an ICE vehicle.  

Actually, those links show systems that only store 5 KWh (+/-) for about $1500 (+/-). 

I would need 200 (+/-) of them to store 1 MWh.

You plan is admirable, but I would still consider a backup generator for extended periods of low solar generation.

I also would never consider placing a large battery array in a residence (yet).  The potential for hazards are still too great (IMO).  In an outbuilding?  Yes!

An electric vehicle will be less expensive to "fuel", but not free.  There are these things called tires and insurance, for instance.

Edited June 23, 2021 by turbguy

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

1 hour ago, turbguy said:

Actually, those links show systems that only store 5 KWh (+/-) for about $1500 (+/-). 

I would need 200 (+/-) of them to store 1 MWh.

You plan is admirable, but I would still consider a backup generator for extended periods of low solar generation.

I also would never consider placing a large battery array in a residence (yet).  The potential for hazards are still too great (IMO).  In an outbuilding?  Yes!

An electric vehicle will be less expensive to "fuel", but not free.  There are these things called tires and insurance, for instance.

The difference is between the MWh (of battery capacity) and the MWh (stored and then delivered over the life of the battery).  That 5 KWh needs to charge and discharge 200 times to provide 1 MWh of energy.

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

17 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Ah yes you present no numbers at all and you call my numbers vague. When are we going to see your non vague numbers???

Not identified to specific location he says when it clearly says it is the global average. HaHa

Losers are the ones with no numbers.

Your point is a loser, Jay, the government policies are making the difference here, not the actual economics of the market. That is the point we were discussing.

Private profit does not always equal lowest cost production. That is a non-starter.

There is more to social cost than the expensive government policies, there is also a social cost to misallocation of productive resources. Total national income declines as a result of allocation inefficiencies.

But you have to study economics to know that.

Edited June 23, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

13 hours ago, turbguy said:

You are going to have to explain that in terms that are more clear to my dense head.

For instance, In my consideration, social costs could include:

• Employment
• Public Health
• Public Safety

As far as I know, electric storage systems are not supported by subsidies (perhaps some R&D funding, but I could be in error). 

There seems to be a wealth of competitive storage systems, as well.

Can you give an example or two??

The article cited by Jay pointed out that the only advantage was provided by government taxation policies and "other" government policies, presumably anti-carbon policies. Those are not market related forces, but political interference into the market.

Political interference with the market always carries a social cost in terms of the expense of the policies themselves, plus allocative inefficiencies which reduce the value of national income. That's a negative for everyone.

[Eric Gagen + 713]

2 hours ago, turbguy said:

Actually, those links show systems that only store 5 KWh (+/-) for about $1500 (+/-). 

I would need 200 (+/-) of them to store 1 MWh.

You plan is admirable, but I would still consider a backup generator for extended periods of low solar generation.

I also would never consider placing a large battery array in a residence (yet).  The potential for hazards are still too great (IMO).  In an outbuilding?  Yes!

An electric vehicle will be less expensive to "fuel", but not free.  There are these things called tires and insurance, for instance.

Doh - missed the Mega - Kilo difference - that's entirely my fault.   

Instead of a backup generator, my plan is two fold:

Be hooked up to the grid - the idea isn't 'independence' it's low cost of operation and flexibility

Have an electric vehicle with a giant battery, that can run the house for another 3 days or so.  This gives you a LOT more flexibility when you really need it (odds that you will be driving around a lot immediately after a hurricane or a flood or other massive event that knocks power out for more than a few hours are pretty slim) 

Possibly a diesel tractor with a PTO generator (probably not though generators are expensive and very low utility in a situation like this) 

Of course you still need tires and insurance, and a host of other things.  But I'll wind up paying for them anyway, with whatever vehicle I have.

Hazards of battery storage too great?  Maybe, but I really don't see it.  properly set up, the risks are pretty minimal.  We probably will put the batteries in an outbuilding of some sort though as a matter of convenience - they benefit from partial environmental control (like a window HVAC unit) but don't need the sort of perfect climate control you want for a house, so you really don't want stuff like that taking up expensive living grade space.  Ideally you would stick them in a shed with the well pump, gasoline, fertilizer, paint storage, etc - all the other things you want close at hand but not IN the house. Also having oversized shed/barn doors and a less than perfectly finished interior to a space like that makes it a lot easier to fool with installation, removal, service, etc.  No wrestling heavy batteries through doorways, or around furniture - just hook it up to the tractor front end loader with a strap and be done with it. Plus no weight issues on flooring - just steel reinforced concrete.  

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

14 hours ago, turbguy said:

You are going to have to explain that in terms that are more clear to my dense head.

For instance, In my consideration, social costs could include:

• Employment
• Public Health
• Public Safety

As far as I know, electric storage systems are not supported by subsidies (perhaps some R&D funding, but I could be in error). 

There seems to be a wealth of competitive storage systems, as well.

Can you give an example or two??

Here is the basic point, taken from the same article cited by Jay.

"Even within the US, where gas prices are significantly lower than elsewhere, batteries are now cost competitive with gas-fired generation – thanks in part to state-level clean energy policies and federal tax credits. Both have boosted the competitiveness of renewables in recent years and now threaten to undermine the economic viability of new gas-fired power investments, says Morris Greenberg, S&P Global Platts Analytics senior manager"

So it is government "clean energy policies" and "federal tax credits" that make battery options competitive with natural gas, not the realities of the market.

[turbguy + 1,391]

1 hour ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

The difference is between the MWh (of battery capacity) and the MWh (stored and then delivered over the life of the battery).  That 5 KWh needs to charge and discharge 200 times to provide 1 MWh of energy.

That may be most obscure "rating" of a battery's capacity I have heard of.

The capacity of a battery is properly rated in ampere-hours at rated terminal voltage.

Edited June 23, 2021 by turbguy

[turbguy + 1,391]

41 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

The article cited by Jay pointed out that the only advantage was provided by government taxation policies and "other" government policies, presumably anti-carbon policies. Those are not market related forces, but political interference into the market.

Political interference with the market always carries a social cost in terms of the expense of the policies themselves, plus allocative inefficiencies which reduce the value of national income. That's a negative for everyone.

So, the EPA's regulation on the market's wastes/emissions carry a social cost?

If we every live in a totally free market, Rockefeller, J.P. Morgan, and other monopolies would still exist.  Did breaking them up carry a social cost?

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

9 minutes ago, turbguy said:

So, the EPA's regulation on the market's wastes/emissions carry a social cost?

If we every live in a totally free market, Rockefeller, J.P. Morgan, and other monopolies would still exist.  Did breaking them up carry a social cost?

The article cited by Jay claims that state clean energy policies and federal tax credits allow batteries to be competitive with natural gas, not the economic realities of the market. I quoted the relevant passage above. 

Whenever government intervenes into the market to distort actual costs and prices, there emerges an allocative inefficiency, which reduces the value of national income. That is a standard economic truism, accepted by all economists. That carries a heavy social cost to the country as a whole.

Anti-trust policy is not related to the issue at hand. The argument for anti-trust is to restore free market mechanisms, not to override them, as the "clean energy policies" and "federal tax credits" are designed to do.

Again, this is Economics for undergraduates.

Edited June 23, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

20 minutes ago, turbguy said:

That may be most obscure "rating" of a battery's capacity I have heard of.

The capacity of a battery is properly rated in ampere-hours.

"Ampere-hour" is meaningless unless you specify voltage. When you specify a voltage, you get Watt-hours. As far as I know, capacity in home battery products like Powerwall is usually specified in kWh.

[turbguy + 1,391]

30 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

The article cited by Jay claims that state clean energy policies and federal tax credits allow batteries to be competitive with natural gas, not the economic realities of the market. I quoted the relevant passage above. 

Whenever government intervenes into the market to distort actual costs and prices, there emerges an allocative inefficiency, which reduces the value of national income. That is a standard economic truism, accepted by all economists. That carries a heavy social cost to the country as a whole.

Anti-trust policy is not related to the issue at hand. The argument for anti-trust is to restore free market mechanisms, not to override them, as the "clean energy policies" and "federal tax credits" are designed to do.

Again, this is Economics 100 for undergraduates.

The costs of regulation is balanced by benefits to society.

At time, those benefits are difficult to quantify, as we have yet to put a agreeable price on public health and safety.

For instance, any nat gas produced and consumed has wastes along the entire system, from extraction, processing, transport, and combustion.  The allocation of costs for those wastes is "tricky".   This is not to ignore the similar "waste" or even "damage" issues that arise with sourcing solar, wind, or hydro generation.  

As for a "free market mechanism", in a totally free market, one mechanism would be to murder your competition.  There are regulations against that action. That does not seem to deter those that market "recreational chemistry".

Edited June 23, 2021 by turbguy

[turbguy + 1,391]

11 minutes ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

"Ampere-hour" is meaningless unless you specify voltage. When you specify a voltage, you get Watt-hours. As far as I know, capacity in home battery products like Powerwall is usually specified in kWh.

Sorry, you must not have caught my edit adding terminal voltage.

Edited June 23, 2021 by turbguy

[KeyboardWarrior + 527]

On 6/20/2021 at 12:12 AM, turbguy said:

If the full extent of externalities of fossil fuels were properly recognized, capex would mean sh*t.

Remember that "some things are not for sale".

I can name PLENTY!

That said, fossil fuels ain't going away for quite a while.

Not sure what you mean by externalities. I looked into installing a large solar system of 500 kW. Had all the information I needed from contractors I knew personally, as well as from several meetings with the local utility. All in all I'd barely make enough to cover the interest payment.

 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,129]

7 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

I didn't think you were being sarcastic, and some of these options actually ARE quite close to $200/MWh in cost (at least before sales taxes) so even by your own admission this is in the range you would consider.

Only off by a factor of 1000...

But, battery required is actually far bigger. 

Need to only charge them to a maximum of about ~80% and only discharge them to around ~60% if you want your batteries to last a long time(10,000+ cycles).  Otherwise the $$$ proposition does not pencil out.  All early adopters have found this out the hard way over the last decade and are now replacing their batteries(ouch).  360 cycles/year ~10,000 cycles ~ 3 decades, or covers standard mortgage which banks giving out loans will start demanding as their asset they own must last. 

So, if overnight load is ~10kWh(AC, lights, TV, and assume have a giant hot water tank to heat during the day and run laundry during day and not at night--> so further expense etc), then your battery bank needs to be at minimum 50kWh, unless you have a large insulated cold water tank to store solar energy in the form of cold water.  Since I guarantee with 99% accuracy you don't, either you do not use AC and sweat, live where the temperatures are mild, or you are sucking off the grid and have a monthly power bill which frankly completely invalidates the whole purpose of having battery bank to begin with and actually costs you more money than you save. 

Lets take the Renogy 2kWh battery you linked for $1500(which is horrifically bad price by the way)... in reality that 2kWh battery is only good for ~400Wh of useable capacity unless you just love buying batteries on the regular.  Also banks won't lend you money on that stuff in the upcoming decades, it is only a matter of time till they start demanding Depth of Discharge statistics to loan money.

Assume you have a 10kWh load after sun goes down and before sun rises, then in reality you need 25 linked renogy batteries.. or $36,000+ shipping + tax ~$40,000 + inverter + solar panels + charge controller + permits + battery rack with insulation/heater + labor.... or in effect more cost than your cheap home in the USA for power requirements... Yes, very expensive housing you can do this, or people who are essentially camping can also do this(been there myself and I enjoy it though the wife, does not, kids do).  Average house?  Dream on.

PS: NO the Tesla Powerwalls will not last.  Their average DoD(depth of Discharge) is too damned big for the average house so their capacity will drop much faster than their cars who on average and only driven about ~50 miles a day and then plugged in at night.  And they are using NMC which is worse than LiPo4 for cycle life. 

EDIT: Here are several guys who have Tesla PW degradation issues just as I described: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/powerwall-2-available-energy-after-2-years.228580/

Edited June 23, 2021 by footeab@yahoo.com

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

1 hour ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Only off by a factor of 1000...

But, battery required is actually far bigger. 

Need to only charge them to a maximum of about ~80% and only discharge them to around ~60% if you want your batteries to last a long time(10,000+ cycles).  Otherwise the $$$ proposition does not pencil out.  All early adopters have found this out the hard way over the last decade and are now replacing their batteries(ouch).  360 cycles/year ~10,000 cycles ~ 3 decades, or covers standard mortgage which banks giving out loans will start demanding as their asset they own must last. 

So, if overnight load is ~10kWh(AC, lights, TV, and assume have a giant hot water tank to heat during the day and run laundry during day and not at night--> so further expense etc), then your battery bank needs to be at minimum 50kWh, unless you have a large insulated cold water tank to store solar energy in the form of cold water.  Since I guarantee with 99% accuracy you don't, either you do not use AC and sweat, live where the temperatures are mild, or you are sucking off the grid and have a monthly power bill which frankly completely invalidates the whole purpose of having battery bank to begin with and actually costs you more money than you save. 

Lets take the Renogy 2kWh battery you linked for $1500(which is horrifically bad price by the way)... in reality that 2kWh battery is only good for ~400Wh of useable capacity unless you just love buying batteries on the regular.  Also banks won't lend you money on that stuff in the upcoming decades, it is only a matter of time till they start demanding Depth of Discharge statistics to loan money.

Assume you have a 10kWh load after sun goes down and before sun rises, then in reality you need 25 linked renogy batteries.. or $36,000+ shipping + tax ~$40,000 + inverter + solar panels + charge controller + permits + battery rack with insulation/heater + labor.... or in effect more cost than your cheap home in the USA for power requirements... Yes, very expensive housing you can do this, or people who are essentially camping can also do this(been there myself and I enjoy it though the wife, does not, kids do).  Average house?  Dream on.

PS: NO the Tesla Powerwalls will not last.  Their average DoD(depth of Discharge) is too damned big for the average house so their capacity will drop much faster than their cars who on average and only driven about ~50 miles a day and then plugged in at night.  And they are using NMC which is worse than LiPo4 for cycle life. 

EDIT: Here are several guys who have Tesla PW degradation issues just as I described: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/powerwall-2-available-energy-after-2-years.228580/

In many location, the average household (non-EV) usage is more like 10  kWh/day, not 10kW continuous, which is 240 kWh. running an average EV for an average day's driving is another 10 kWh. Clearly, a typical household will run a LOT more than this 20 kWh on some days, for example when charging up the ol' Tesla for a long trip the next day.

A fanatic greenie with more money than sense can build a hyper-efficient home that uses a lot less (non-EV) electricity than this even in a fairly extreme environment, using double walls, geothermal heat pump, etc,

 

[turbguy + 1,391]

2 hours ago, KeyboardWarrior said:

Not sure what you mean by externalities. I looked into installing a large solar system of 500 kW. Had all the information I needed from contractors I knew personally, as well as from several meetings with the local utility. All in all I'd barely make enough to cover the interest payment.

 

Externalities occur because many activities have effects on third parties that are not part of the transactions.

Examples are: factories emitting smoke and waste,  aircraft waking up people, or loudspeakers generating noise.

These activities are all having a direct effect on the well-being of others that are outside of the market.