Tesla is the Most American Made Car!

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Tesla should pass BMW and Mercedes in 3 to 4 years. Volkswagen and Toyota in 10 years.

Indeed. I was being very conservative. "Doubling every 2 years" is a combined annual growth rate (CAGR) of 41%  (a factor of 1.41) But Elon thinks he can hit a CAGR of about 50%. That makes a huge difference over ten years, a factor of 57 instead of 32, for 11,400,000/qtr or 45,600,000/yr:  about half the total global vehicle market.  But he realistically has also said he intends to be at about 20 million/yr by 2030 and capturing about half the EV market then as other manufacturers finally get their acts together.

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

2 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Imagine how much water an 18 wheeler EV fire would require. Plus possible crater in the freeway. 

To a first approximation, the batteries on an EV semi carry the same amount of energy as the fuel tanks on an ICE semi, and will therefore do about the same worst-case damage.   Still a lot less than the damage of a gasoline tanker truck fire, and the more EVs on the road, the fewer gasoline tanker trucks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QlvjUsPlWOo

 

Edited July 6, 2021 by Dan Clemmensen
add video

[RichieRich216 + 454]

2 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Imagine how much water an 18 wheeler EV fire would require. Plus possible crater in the freeway. 

Imagine having to wear a hazmat suit to a car fire!

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

36 minutes ago, RichieRich216 said:

Imagine having to wear a hazmat suit to a car fire!

hazmat not required. Just their standard gear and self contained breathing apparatus. Which is the same recommendation for any car fire.

Here is a crew putting out a gasoline car fire who would have been in big trouble without their SCBA and hood.

https://youtu.be/CmiWOC2pib4?t=250

https://www.firerescue1.com/fire-products/personal-protective-equipment-ppe/articles/firefighter-safety-reminder-car-fires-are-class-b-fires-aHIOlyst4ZAmA2Z6/

Here is a firefighter training video for EV fires. They are wearing the same as above:

https://youtu.be/8n5Wf7TlGrU?t=273

Edited July 6, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[Boat + 1,315]

23 hours ago, markslawson said:

Jay - in passing you do realise that 200,000 deliveries in a quarter is precisely nothing.. that's less than 7 per cent of the Australian new car sales market. Would the stats guys even bother to note the market share in the US? Anyway. I shook myself out of usual lethargy regarding Tesla to look at the March quarter accounts (download from here).. does anyone know why Tesla has  $US17.14 billion in cash and cash equivalents (at call deposits and so on) hanging around? This seems like a colossal amount of money to keep in petty cash.. Admittedly current liabilities (debt at call) is $14.8, including more than $6 billion owed to suppliers, but still all that should be handled as part of normal operations. Is it usual for US corporations to keep so much cash on hand?     

Yes Mark, the woke know how to read charts. Solar is small, wind is small, electric cars have a small imprint on the market. So does energy storage. But they are the future. This was the same argument the non woke told us 10 years ago when many of us saw the potential. The energy market is huge and as some of have explained for the last decade just track the trends. While small,  renewables passed coal. Eventually they will pass nat gas. Electric batteries storage is minuscule but in a couple of decades will be big in their own right. FF will keep going up and new tech will bring prices down. That’s the trend that keeps advancing. 
I still think maybe small nuclear will be possible thanks to tech. We’ll see probably in a few years. 
Maybe mushroom fungus will get a chunk of the plastics market. Us tech fans will see big gains, not because of ideology but because of competitive pricing in the markets.

Edited July 6, 2021 by Boat

[Boat + 1,315]

You do know 2 more Tesla plants will be online in less than a year and with expected battery battery production. Longer range at a cheaper price. This is the 3-5 year advantage over competitors the market is excited about. Once they are streamlined expect continued rapid expansion. Then we have the amazing Gigi press adaptation still in the works with the new plants. Like Space X, this new tech is expected to keep gaining market share far into the future.

[markslawson + 1,042]

38 minutes ago, Boat said:

This was the same argument the non woke told us 10 years ago when many of us saw the potential.

The non-woke were right back then, as I'm sure you now appreciate.. after a full decade of screaming and billions in assistance of one sort of another the contribution of solar and wind is still tiny.. even the talk about batteries is due to the renewables lobby finally realising they have to do something about the intermittency of renewable power, after years of denying the problem.. anyway, leave it with you.. 

[markslawson + 1,042]

17 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Tesla only has two factories and is about a third of BMW or Daimler production. How long have they been building cars? Tesla didn't even have a production car 10 years ago. It's about the growth curve, you won't be able to easily dismiss them in a few years.

Are you getting ready for the Chinese EV onslaught in Australia? BYD is coming in a big way starting in 6 months.

Jay - a classic mistake in forecasting is to look at existing growth trends and assume that they will continue. As we've discussed before EV sales depend strongly on the level of government incentives. No incentives, no sales, or few sales. How long can governments continue to offer incentives? That's the question you should be asking.

As for BYD coming to Australia, as you may know EV sales in Australia have been dismal - about 0.6 per cent of the market. You would have expected maybe a couple of percent without incentives, as there are plenty of greenies and the country is wealthy. However, part of the reason is that no cheap models are available here. The BYD models are cheap but then Chinese has its own set of loony EV policies and there are battery supply constraints so it remains to be seen just how many get delivered down under.. hope that helps your thoughts on the issue.. leave it with you.  

 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

1 minute ago, markslawson said:

Jay - a classic mistake in forecasting is to look at existing growth trends and assume that they will continue. As we've discussed before EV sales depend strongly on the level of government incentives. No incentives, no sales, or few sales. How long can governments continue to offer incentives? That's the question you should be asking.

As for BYD coming to Australia, as you may know EV sales in Australia have been dismal - about 0.6 per cent of the market. You would have expected maybe a couple of percent without incentives, as there are plenty of greenies and the country is wealthy. However, part of the reason is that no cheap models are available here. The BYD models are cheap but then Chinese has its own set of loony EV policies and there are battery supply constraints so it remains to be seen just how many get delivered down under.. hope that helps your thoughts on the issue.. leave it with you.  

 

Mark - An even bigger classic mistake is to not extrapolate forward exponential growth trends. 

Governments can easily keep up the incentives long enough for EV's to become the predominate vehicle in the market. Because until there are a lot of sales, it doesn't cost them much.

Remember that if people are buying the product with an incentive then they aren't outright rejecting it, they just need it to meet a certain price point. A huge cost involved with EV's is lack of familiarity. More than anything the incentives encourage people to explore the unknown.

As to Australia let me note that you are making the same classic mistake you called me out for - looking at existing trends and assuming they will continue. EV's are now getting to that magic price point / production point that you are going to see growth in Australia even though it has no regulatory credits or buying incentives. However I am heartened to read that you acknowledge the problem with EV sales growth is supply constraint, not customer demand. Which is of course the real reason EV sales have been low in Australia. Companies have been selling their limited number of EVs in the most profitable markets. These markets have both regulatory credits and buying incentives. 

With years of battery production investment the supply constraints are beginning to slip away.

"TrueGreen Mobility hopes to be firmly embedded in Australia’s transition to large-scale EV sales. The company’s Nexport offshoot recently announced an order of 3000 vehicles to Australian technology firm Splend, which will supply vehicles to Uber and delivery drivers nationally.

Todd explained volume capacity wouldn’t stop there, either.

“The deal with Splend – taking 3000 units next year from us – is Australia’s largest EV deal to date,” he said.

“We have capabilities 10-fold that. We could import more than 30,000 vehicles into Australia annually – we have as much production capability as demand requires.”

According to Todd, BYD’s sub-$35,000 price point in Australia is a direct result of its online sales platform, which totally cuts dealers out of the sales process.

He said the online model saved as much as 30 per cent on a vehicle’s retail price, and took away many unnecessary touch points in the transition from factory to driveway.

https://www.motoring.com.au/byd-to-launch-three-sub-35k-evs-in-australia-soon-130231/

Enjoy the transition down under!

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

Germany, Europe’s largest auto market, saw plugin electric vehicles take 23.6% share in June 2021, up almost 3x from 8.6% share in June 2020. The bestselling EV in June was the Tesla Model 3, at over 4,400 units

[RichieRich216 + 454]

21 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

hazmat not required. Just their standard gear and self contained breathing apparatus. Which is the same recommendation for any car fire.

Here is a crew putting out a gasoline car fire who would have been in big trouble without their SCBA and hood.

https://youtu.be/CmiWOC2pib4?t=250

https://www.firerescue1.com/fire-products/personal-protective-equipment-ppe/articles/firefighter-safety-reminder-car-fires-are-class-b-fires-aHIOlyst4ZAmA2Z6/

Here is a firefighter training video for EV fires. They are wearing the same as above:

https://youtu.be/8n5Wf7TlGrU?t=273

Analysis: When do electric vehicles become cleaner than gasoline cars?

Paul Lienert

5 minute read

This video will resume in 9 seconds

 

DETROIT, June 29 (Reuters) - You glide silently out of the Tesla (TSLA.O) showroom in your sleek new electric Model 3, satisfied you're looking great and doing your bit for the planet.

But keep going - you'll have to drive another 13,500 miles (21,725 km) before you're doing less harm to the environment than a gas-guzzling saloon.

That's the result of a Reuters analysis of data from a model that calculates the lifetime emissions of vehicles, a hotly debated issue that's taking center stage as governments around the world push for greener transport to meet climate targets.

The model was developed by the Argonne National Laboratory in Chicago and includes thousands of parameters from the type metals in an electric vehicle (EV) battery to the amount of aluminium or plastic in a car.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

1 hour ago, RichieRich216 said:

Analysis: When do electric vehicles become cleaner than gasoline cars?

Paul Lienert

5 minute read

This video will resume in 9 seconds

 

DETROIT, June 29 (Reuters) - You glide silently out of the Tesla (TSLA.O) showroom in your sleek new electric Model 3, satisfied you're looking great and doing your bit for the planet.

But keep going - you'll have to drive another 13,500 miles (21,725 km) before you're doing less harm to the environment than a gas-guzzling saloon.

That's the result of a Reuters analysis of data from a model that calculates the lifetime emissions of vehicles, a hotly debated issue that's taking center stage as governments around the world push for greener transport to meet climate targets.

The model was developed by the Argonne National Laboratory in Chicago and includes thousands of parameters from the type metals in an electric vehicle (EV) battery to the amount of aluminium or plastic in a car.

So? EVs last for a lot longer than 13,500 miles. That number is also highly dependent on how green the grid and supply chain are. As renewables grow that number will go down.

Edited July 7, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[RichieRich216 + 454]

1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

So? EVs last for a lot longer than 13,500 miles. That number is also highly dependent on how green the grid and supply chain are. As renewables grow that number will go down.

We have had WIND Commericial since the late 80’s, Keep dreaming!

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

8 minutes ago, RichieRich216 said:

We have had WIND Commericial since the late 80’s, Keep dreaming!

Can you draw a line?

Edited July 7, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[RichieRich216 + 454]

47 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Can you draw a line?

Where is your line from 1988 to 2002 LOL, It’s easy to pick an choose your data! OH😮 data doesn’t fit the greenies narrative.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

11 minutes ago, RichieRich216 said:

Where is your line from 1988 to 2002 LOL, It’s easy to pick an choose your data! OH😮 data doesn’t fit the greenies narrative.

I know this is going to blow your mind...it's all one line.

Edited July 8, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[RichieRich216 + 454]

So show the line from 1988 to the start of your graph 2002…. I’m betting your for a global corporate business tax also?

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

4 hours ago, RichieRich216 said:

Analysis: When do electric vehicles become cleaner than gasoline cars?

Paul Lienert

5 minute read

This video will resume in 9 seconds

 

DETROIT, June 29 (Reuters) - You glide silently out of the Tesla (TSLA.O) showroom in your sleek new electric Model 3, satisfied you're looking great and doing your bit for the planet.

But keep going - you'll have to drive another 13,500 miles (21,725 km) before you're doing less harm to the environment than a gas-guzzling saloon.

That's the result of a Reuters analysis of data from a model that calculates the lifetime emissions of vehicles, a hotly debated issue that's taking center stage as governments around the world push for greener transport to meet climate targets.

The model was developed by the Argonne National Laboratory in Chicago and includes thousands of parameters from the type metals in an electric vehicle (EV) battery to the amount of aluminium or plastic in a car.

The average miles driven for a car in the US is about 13,000 mi/yr. This means you break even in about a year. Not bad, considering the average age of a car on the road is 11 years.

The other big deal is that these are today's numbers. But a large percentage of the carbon input is the energy used to mine and refine the lithium from hard rock (Spodumite) mined using ICE equipment in Australia, then transported to China to be refined using energy from coal, and then transported to the US. But all of this is rapidly changing, so the carbon cost of lithium is rapidly declining.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

22 minutes ago, RichieRich216 said:

So show the line from 1988 to the start of your graph 2002…. I’m betting your for a global corporate business tax also?

Are you really that clueless? What exactly do you think that line is going to show you other than starting at about zero and ending up at the 2002 number? 

You can search the EIA and find something to refute me. But of course you can't. However to help you out, here is the link for the 2001 to present data that I presented above:

https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser/#/topic/0?agg=2,0,1&fuel=vtvv&geo=g&sec=g&linechart=ELEC.GEN.HYC-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.NG-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.WND-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.TSN-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.NUC-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.COW-US-99.A~&columnchart=ELEC.GEN.ALL-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.COW-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.NG-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.NUC-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.HYC-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.WND-US-99.A&map=ELEC.GEN.ALL-US-99.A&freq=A&ctype=linechart&ltype=pin&rtype=s&pin=&rse=0&maptype=0

 

[RichieRich216 + 454]

I don’t see BC, You a anti-religious person? 😂 , Really Dude lighten up before you have a stroke.

[RichieRich216 + 454]

https://images.app.goo.gl/rCcYpRWHwF5eao7j7

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,132]

On 7/6/2021 at 5:20 PM, markslawson said:

Jay - a classic mistake in forecasting is to look at existing growth trends and assume that they will continue. As we've discussed before EV sales depend strongly on the level of government incentives. No incentives, no sales, or few sales. How long can governments continue to offer incentives? That's the question you should be asking.

As for BYD coming to Australia, as you may know EV sales in Australia have been dismal - about 0.6 per cent of the market. You would have expected maybe a couple of percent without incentives, as there are plenty of greenies and the country is wealthy. However, part of the reason is that no cheap models are available here. The BYD models are cheap but then Chinese has its own set of loony EV policies and there are battery supply constraints so it remains to be seen just how many get delivered down under.. hope that helps your thoughts on the issue.. leave it with you.  

 

Oz is still allowing Chinese main products into their country after what China has been doing to them? 

Have the Aussies all gone metrosexual soft?(multiple puns intended) 

[markslawson + 1,042]

2 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Oz is still allowing Chinese main products into their country after what China has been doing to them? 

Have the Aussies all gone metrosexual soft?(multiple puns intended) 

Now that you mention it, it is a bit weird but basically the Chinese trade bans haven't hurt Australia very much at all, and may even have helped by forcing exporters to diversifying their customer base. A tit for tat may makes things worse and, in any case, is beneath us.. Look at us, China, we don't care.. yah boo lickspoon to you (a Monty Python expression)..   

[QuarterCenturyVet + 312]

PresentedA Tesla ‘death cross’ has appeared for the first time in more than 2 years. 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-tesla-death-cross-is-coming-the-first-in-more-than-2-years-11625771674

[Mutiny 0]

Sorry, back to earlier points made.  ICE cars are much more likely as a percentage of autos on the road to catch fire, than EV's.  And if you complain about the short term subsidies that Tesla received, could you please also complain about fossil fuel subsidies?