ronwagn

China Producing Half of the Worlds Electrical Vehicle Batteries is Experiencing Explosive Pollution

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Electricity generation only and that is and will be subsidized, and consumer prices are already fairly high. Your figures are from the Minister for Energy and Emissions Reduction. 

Overall energy used in Australia 

 https://www.energy.gov.au/sites/default/files/Australian Energy Statistics 2020 Energy Update Report_0.pdf

Fossil fuel use is 93.6 %  Renewables 6.4%

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Electricity generation only and that is and will be subsidized, and consumer prices are already fairly high. Your figures are from the Minister for Energy and Emissions Reduction. 

Overall energy used in Australia 

 https://www.energy.gov.au/sites/default/files/Australian Energy Statistics 2020 Energy Update Report_0.pdf

Fossil fuel use is 93.6 %  Renewables 6.4%

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Electricity generation only and that is and will be subsidized, and consumer prices are already fairly high. Your figures are from the Minister for Energy and Emissions Reduction. 

Overall energy used in Australia 

 https://www.energy.gov.au/sites/default/files/Australian Energy Statistics 2020 Energy Update Report_0.pdf

Fossil fuel use is 93.6 %  Renewables 6.4%

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Electricity generation only and that is and will be subsidized, and consumer prices are already fairly high. Your figures are from the Minister for Energy and Emissions Reduction. 

Overall energy used in Australia 

https://www.energy.gov.au/sites/default/files/Australian Energy Statistics 2020 Energy Update Report_0.pdf

Fossil fuel use is 93.6 %  Renewables 6.4%

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4 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Electricity generation only and that is and will be subsidized, and consumer prices are already fairly high. Your figures are from the Minister for Energy and Emissions Reduction. 

Overall energy used in Australia 

 https://www.energy.gov.au/sites/default/files/Australian Energy Statistics 2020 Energy Update Report_0.pdf

Fossil fuel use is 93.6 %  Renewables 6.4%

The Minster for Energy was reporting the numbers from the same agency as you are getting your numbers from. He was citing newer numbers. 

Here, let me hold your hand, I know this can be difficult.

If you go to https://www.energy.gov.au/government-priorities/energy-data/australian-energy-statistics you will land at the statistics page for:image.png.d461e1749e2f97cb2cbe9894aa3c4c52.png

On that page you will see a section that looks like this:

image.png.4eac9d1c45ceac48a44a517e442f9974.png

 

Now here is the real tricky part. If you click on the first link you will get your report from last year. If you click on the second link you will get the report from last month, which is the one that the Minister of Energy was citing.

 

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2 hours ago, ronwagn said:

 

I invite anyone to read your report and then mine to get the real picture of energy use in Australia. The taxpayers will definitely foot the bill with excess taxes first and then with higher rates. 

The real picture of energy in Australia:

Surging gas prices raise alarm, threaten PM’s gas-fired recovery hopes

Energy and manufacturing businesses say the runaway prices, which are up to 10 times higher than average levels, will leave some factories exposed to the wholesale market unable to cope and raises the danger of plants being forced to close. https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/surging-gas-prices-raise-alarm-threaten-pm-s-gas-fired-recovery-hopes-20210709-p588ad.html

 

Coal the loser as power prices smashed

Mushrooming rooftop solar and mild summer weather have driven demand for power from the grid to the lowest for 19 years for the peak summer quarter, cutting wholesale prices by up to 68 per cent and pushing major coal and gas power generators such as AGL Energy to the brink.

--------

“Household electricity bills have been falling for over two years, with ABS CPI data showing household costs are currently 11.2 per cent lower than they were this time last year.

“Since the introduction of the Big Stick legislation to March this year, there have been 19 straight months of wholesale price reductions on the previous year.https://www.miragenews.com/wholesale-electricity-prices-at-nine-year-low-561044/

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9 hours ago, turbguy said:

You are speaking to the extraction of fuel for generation, not materials used in generation itself.

Where does the nickle, chromium, moly, copper, vanadium, tungsten, etc, come from for construction of fossil plants??

Conventional power plants don't use that stuff, except maybe copper, and, in any case, have life spans of up to eighty years as opposed to the 20-25 max for wind and PV panels which output far less power. Demand for the materials you mention have gone through the roof since the EV-green power boom..  

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5 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

The problems you have been raising are damming critiques on modern capitalism but they are not specific to EVs and renewables, they apply equally to ICE and fossil fuel.

 

I LOVE Capitalism! Renewables are a bullshit scam dating back to the 70’s and in over 50 years of listening to greenies bitch they have accomplished very little and Lovingly because of the fraud based at every level of Climate Change have made many billions for personal wealth, for the stupid out there just look at SOLYNDRA INC $535 million pissed away!

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(edited)

Your complaints were about capitalism, no doubt about it. It sure isn't the greens who are making them throw stuff out. We are quite angered by  it.

Edited by Jay McKinsey

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1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Household electricity bills have been falling for over two years, with ABS CPI data showing household costs are currently 11.2 per cent lower than they were this time last year.

Jay - again with more misleading nonsense.. in fact the 21 per cent figure refers to power generation and the 6.4 per cent to total energy consumption.. the 21 per cent power generation figure includes hydro, incidentally, although the real surprise is when you look at the breakdown for the renewables figure in the same document. Nearly half (45 per cent of the renewables total) is biomass of one sort of another. What? When did that happen? Biomass is dispatchable so it doesn't have anything like the problems of wind and solar, but I had no idea they were so common. I must look more closely.

As for your comments on price.. a likely suspect, now that I think about it, is that the network costs are working their way through the system where those costs had to do with changes in regulations some years back - and they are coming off a peak. Any decrease would be in spite of the use of wind and solar which are nearly useless, as we can all agree..  

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(edited)

12 hours ago, markslawson said:

Jay - again with more misleading nonsense.. in fact the 21 per cent figure refers to power generation and the 6.4 per cent to total energy consumption.. the 21 per cent power generation figure includes hydro, incidentally, although the real surprise is when you look at the breakdown for the renewables figure in the same document. Nearly half (45 per cent of the renewables total) is biomass of one sort of another. What? When did that happen? Biomass is dispatchable so it doesn't have anything like the problems of wind and solar, but I had no idea they were so common. I must look more closely.

As for your comments on price.. a likely suspect, now that I think about it, is that the network costs are working their way through the system where those costs had to do with changes in regulations some years back - and they are coming off a peak. Any decrease would be in spite of the use of wind and solar which are nearly useless, as we can all agree..  

Mark - again with more misleading nonsense...

In 2018-19 Bioenergy made up 1.3% of electricity generation, wind 6.7, solar 5.6:

image.png.019abddae6aabaf99ffe438c38817aac.png

Renewable generation increased 17 per cent in 2018–19, contributing 20 per cent of total generation. This was driven by a 50 per cent increase in solar generation and 17 per cent increase in wind generation. 

Renewable generation grew further in calendar year 2019, to 21 per cent of total generation. Australia last saw a renewables share of total generation this high in the mid-1970s, when the Snowy Mountains hydroelectric scheme was completed.

--------

2020

"Renewable sources contributed an estimated 64,667 GWh, making up 24% of Australia’s total electricity generation.

The largest source of renewable generation was solar (9% of total generation) followed by wind (9%) and hydro (6%)."

Looks like bioenergy has gone to zero.

https://www.energy.gov.au/publications/australian-energy-statistics-table-o-electricity-generation-fuel-type-2019-20-and-2020

This is cool and the reason that solar & wind are now dispatchable.

image.png.b747e1bc427fd877055201582e9d0c16.png

Mark could you do me a favor? Could you explain to Ron what your Minister of Energy Angus Taylor thinks of renewables? Ron thinks he's a greenie. Thanks.

Edited by Jay McKinsey

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2 hours ago, markslawson said:

Conventional power plants don't use that stuff, except maybe copper, and, in any case, have life spans of up to eighty years as opposed to the 20-25 max for wind and PV panels which output far less power. Demand for the materials you mention have gone through the roof since the EV-green power boom..  

you are kidding right?  I'm no 'green cheerleader' but to claim that conventional plants last 80 years and don't use chrome, tungsten, vanadium nickel, vanadium etc. is definitely wrong.  The typical coal or natural gas fueled power plant is designed with a useful life ranging from 20 to 40 years (usually about 35 years) There are a few out there in this world that are 80 years old, and they are invariably grossly inefficient highly polluting dinosaurs.   Chrome, and nickel are critical elements in the high temperature high RPM turbine sections which are necessary for high efficiency plants. NIckel is critical for many green technologies but chromium is not.  Tungsten isn't used to a significant degree in the electrical energy business directly, but all facets 'old and new' use a lot indirectly via machine tool eqiupment that manufactures parts.  Vanadium is a preferential alloying element used in high temperature steel applications such as high pressure steam systems which are a critical part of fossil fuel electric plants.  Vanadium is not currently a critical element in green technologies, although it could be in some future battery applications.  Molybdenum isn't critical for any electric power generation systems - molybdenum is important where steels have to be lightweight, but electric power generation equipment is non-mobile, so saving weight is not a priority.    

 

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5 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

The real picture of energy in Australia:

Surging gas prices raise alarm, threaten PM’s gas-fired recovery hopes

Energy and manufacturing businesses say the runaway prices, which are up to 10 times higher than average levels, will leave some factories exposed to the wholesale market unable to cope and raises the danger of plants being forced to close. https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/surging-gas-prices-raise-alarm-threaten-pm-s-gas-fired-recovery-hopes-20210709-p588ad.html

 

Coal the loser as power prices smashed

Mushrooming rooftop solar and mild summer weather have driven demand for power from the grid to the lowest for 19 years for the peak summer quarter, cutting wholesale prices by up to 68 per cent and pushing major coal and gas power generators such as AGL Energy to the brink.

--------

“Household electricity bills have been falling for over two years, with ABS CPI data showing household costs are currently 11.2 per cent lower than they were this time last year.

“Since the introduction of the Big Stick legislation to March this year, there have been 19 straight months of wholesale price reductions on the previous year.https://www.miragenews.com/wholesale-electricity-prices-at-nine-year-low-561044/

Good luck with that. I hope it works out, we will see. 

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21 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

The typical coal or natural gas fueled power plant is designed with a useful life ranging from 20 to 40 years (usually about 35 years) There are a few out there in this world that are 80 years old, and they are invariably grossly inefficient highly polluting dinosaurs.   Chrome, and nickel are critical elements in the high temperature high RPM turbine sections which are necessary for high efficiency plants. NIckel is critical for many green technologies but chromium is not.  Tungsten isn't used to a significant degree in the electrical energy business directly, but all facets 'old and new' use a lot indirectly via machine tool eqiupment that manufactures parts. 

Okay, fair enough - 40 years is fine by me.. sure the various material mentioned are used in the components you mentioned but in nothing like the quantities required by wind, solar and batteries and so on, hence the huge expansion in capacity and increases in price.. I stand corrected but it doesn't affect the point that I was making. Conventional power requires a lot of fuel but much less of the materials mentioned.. 

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(edited)

23 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Mark - again with more misleading nonsense...

In 2018-19 Bioenergy made up 1.3% of electricity generation, wind 6.7, solar 5.6:

 

No, Jay, now you've switched back to power generation figures, but I'm glad to see that you've conceded on the point that wind and solar together are about 11 per cent or so of power production, and not the 26 per cent or so you were trying to claim before - about what you'd expect. The biogas figures I was referring to was for total power consumption. You referenced the figures before here.  As you found the figures you cannot claim that you were unaware of them. But now I'm puzzled even more.. so what are these plants doing if not producing power.. I will have to investigate.. There you are, your threshing around and grabbing statistics has had done some good, but I would urge you to be aware of which statistics you are quoting. Anyway, leave it with you..  

Ahhhh! A good part of it is sugar cane waste chucked into boilers up North (lots of sugar cane production in Australia's north) but they're also counting fires in fire places it seems.. Here is the wording in the figures you cited. Note its for TOTAL energy consumption, not just electricity.. 

Renewable energy sources accounted for the remaining 6 per cent of
Australian energy consumption in 2018–19, comprising mainly of biomass,
hydro, wind and solar energy. This includes renewable energy use for
electricity generation, as well as direct use of renewables such as firewood for
residential heating, bagasse use in manufacturing, and solar hot water.
In 2018–19, renewable energy consumption rose by 5 per cent, due to strong
growth in solar and wind (Table 2.3). Consumption of bagasse, the remnant
sugar cane pulp left after crushing, declined by 9 per cent. Despite the decline,
it remained the largest source of renewable energy in Australia, at 23 per cent 
Australian Energy Update 2020 10
of total renewable energy use in 2018–19.

I learned something.. but that's the end of this discussion.. 

 

Edited by markslawson
addition/clarification
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(edited)

22 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

Molybdenum isn't critical for any electric power generation systems - molybdenum is important where steels have to be lightweight, but electric power generation equipment is non-mobile, so saving weight is not a priority.    

 

Moly is used in many high-temp fossil alloying.

Do some research on "refractalloy" turbine bolting.  Some alloys (not 26) are high in Tungsten.  Iron is almost considered a tramp element in that metallurgy.

Edited by turbguy
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(edited)

On 7/18/2021 at 5:48 PM, markslawson said:

Conventional power plants don't use that stuff, except maybe copper...

Wrong.

Just SO wrong.

Do you research before making such comments.

At least 3% of the weight of the high temperature parts are those elements.  And those parts are HEAVY!

Most modern land based wind machines use DFIG's, which do not require exotic magnets.

Edited by turbguy

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(edited)

34 minutes ago, turbguy said:

Wrong.

Just SO wrong.

Do you research before making such comments.

At least 3% of the weight of the high temperature parts are those elements.  And those parts are HEAVY!

Most modern land based wind machines use DFIG's, which do not require exotic magnets.

Of course he doesn't research before making comments, he's a "Journalist".

Edited by Jay McKinsey

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(edited)

1 hour ago, markslawson said:

No, Jay, now you've switched back to power generation figures, but I'm glad to see that you've conceded on the point that wind and solar together are about 11 per cent or so of power production, and not the 26 per cent or so you were trying to claim before - about what you'd expect. The biogas figures I was referring to was for total power consumption. You referenced the figures before here.  As you found the figures you cannot claim that you were unaware of them. But now I'm puzzled even more.. so what are these plants doing if not producing power.. I will have to investigate.. There you are, your threshing around and grabbing statistics has had done some good, but I would urge you to be aware of which statistics you are quoting. Anyway, leave it with you..  

Ahhhh! A good part of it is sugar cane waste chucked into boilers up North (lots of sugar cane production in Australia's north) but they're also counting fires in fire places it seems.. Here is the wording in the figures you cited. Note its for TOTAL energy consumption, not just electricity.. 

Renewable energy sources accounted for the remaining 6 per cent of
Australian energy consumption in 2018–19, comprising mainly of biomass,
hydro, wind and solar energy. This includes renewable energy use for
electricity generation, as well as direct use of renewables such as firewood for
residential heating, bagasse use in manufacturing, and solar hot water.
In 2018–19, renewable energy consumption rose by 5 per cent, due to strong
growth in solar and wind (Table 2.3). Consumption of bagasse, the remnant
sugar cane pulp left after crushing, declined by 9 per cent. Despite the decline,
it remained the largest source of renewable energy in Australia, at 23 per cent 
Australian Energy Update 2020 10
of total renewable energy use in 2018–19.

I learned something.. but that's the end of this discussion.. 

 

No Mark, you failed again. I've been posting the electricity numbers all along. That was Ron who was posting the other numbers from the old report. 

Since you are such a high caliber "Journalist" I will once more post the current numbers as reported by the Australian Gov't. Perhaps they are above your reading comprehension level? But then if you didn't lie about the numbers you wouldn't have anything to write about, would you?

image.png.399a15e649c82148f73c0211f861fd9a.png

image.png.89642bdf1feb0c6d3eedd0530f5b07ce.png

image.png.5685563b3aa9d927ba23639d8e609d56.png

Solar + Wind = 18%

solar (9% of total generation) followed by wind (9%) and hydro (6%)

You can find the percentage of solar and wind as shown, here:https://www.energy.gov.au/publications/australian-energy-statistics-table-o-electricity-generation-fuel-type-2019-20-and-2020

2020

"Renewable sources contributed an estimated 64,667 GWh, making up 24% of Australia’s total electricity generation.

The largest source of renewable generation was solar (9% of total generation) followed by wind (9%) and hydro (6%)."

Looks like bioenergy has gone to zero.

https://www.energy.gov.au/publications/australian-energy-statistics-table-o-electricity-generation-fuel-type-2019-20-and-2020

This is cool and the reason that solar & wind are now dispatchable.

image.png.b747e1bc427fd877055201582e9d0c16.png

image.thumb.png.c09a3adaa91424b33f253a9f54b0385d.png

 

 

Edited by Jay McKinsey
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(edited)

22 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

 Molybdenum isn't critical for any electric power generation systems - molybdenum is important where steels have to be lightweight, but electric power generation equipment is non-mobile, so saving weight is not a priority.   

Also, if you want "lighter" high temp pressure parts, you can switch away from low alloy steels to some stainless alloys.   They can be used with thinner cross sections, while still satisfying  boiler code.  What you spend on more expensive materials, you save on supports and structure (to a degree).

BUT, you now must deal with dissimilar metal welds at some point, which tend to be very troublesome, falling suddenly in service (carbide precipitation).

Edited by turbguy

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1 hour ago, turbguy said:

Also, if you want "lighter" high temp pressure parts, you can switch away from low alloy steels to some stainless alloys.   They can be used with thinner cross sections, while still satisfying  boiler code.  What you spend on more expensive materials, you save on supports and structure (to a degree).

BUT, you now must deal with dissimilar metal welds at some point, which tend to be very troublesome, falling suddenly in service (carbide precipitation).

I'll freely admit that high nickel alloys can have a huge influence on high temperature equipment.  Maybe even be THE critical criteria for specifications.

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1 hour ago, turbguy said:

Moly is used in many high-temp fossil alloying.

Do some research on "refractalloy" turbine bolting.  Some alloys (not 26) are high in Tungsten.  Iron is almost considered a tramp element in that metallurgy.

Yes, but the amounts required are very low.  Sure you need SOME but it's not enough to be a critical factor in the facility or metallurgy as a whole.

 

Iron as a 'tramp' element - that's funny, but kind of true for some of the really exotic stuff.  

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2 hours ago, markslawson said:

Okay, fair enough - 40 years is fine by me.. sure the various material mentioned are used in the components you mentioned but in nothing like the quantities required by wind, solar and batteries and so on, hence the huge expansion in capacity and increases in price.. I stand corrected but it doesn't affect the point that I was making. Conventional power requires a lot of fuel but much less of the materials mentioned.. 

Batteries need a bunch of Cobalt, lithium, copper and Vanadium.  Wind turbines need rare earth elements.  These are massive needs and I'll freely admit that they are very large challenges to the global mining industry that will require a lot of energy to meet.  With the exception of copper, and of course iron the metal and mineral needs of the 'green energy' industry are mostly different from the needs of the 'fossil' fuel industry.

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(edited)

2 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

Batteries need a bunch of Cobalt, lithium, copper and Vanadium.  Wind turbines need rare earth elements.  These are massive needs and I'll freely admit that they are very large challenges to the global mining industry that will require a lot of energy to meet.  With the exception of copper, and of course iron the metal and mineral needs of the 'green energy' industry are mostly different from the needs of the 'fossil' fuel industry.

Neodymium and Dysprosium WERE used in early machine with Permenant Magnet generators. That's OLD SCHOOL!

Now it's just copper and silicon steel ELECTROMAGNETS!  Along with power electronics, which uses silicon, which ain't exactly "rare.

You do know what a Double Feed Induction Generator (DFIG) is, no?   Using power electronics, it allows a variable speed input, with a synchronous power output, requiring NO rare earths at all.  That's what on-shore machines now use.   Offshore may still use permanent magnets, as they have may have a DC output (easier to transmit onto shore).

On top of that, using a DFIG permits greater extraction of stored rotating inertia from a wind turbine.   A conventional synchronous machine will trip once speed (RPM) drops about 2%, leaving the remaining stored rotating inertia unavailable to the grid.  A DFIG can extract inertia down to MUCH lower speeds.

 

Batteries, they require the same stuff (other than lithium, which ain't exactly rare either) fossil plants do.

And I would not consider steel alloys that require 1% moly as low usage.  You got 100 pounds of P22 low alloy pipe? You need 1 pound of moly.   Steam plants use a LOT of high temp pipe.  BIG, THICK stuff, too.

Edited by turbguy
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2 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

I'll freely admit that high nickel alloys can have a huge influence on high temperature equipment.  Maybe even be THE critical criteria for specifications.

A well respected Russian-born metallurgist I had the great pleasure of working with for years always said..

"Metallurgy is NOT a science, it is a Black Art"!

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