ronwagn

China Producing Half of the Worlds Electrical Vehicle Batteries is Experiencing Explosive Pollution

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On 7/17/2021 at 12:22 PM, Ecocharger said:

Most warranty documents require regular servicing with the manufacturer, no third party, which would void the warranty. After warranty period is expired, you can use third party.

That's because most cars are ICE cars that need regular servicing, and dealerships make make a great deal of money on servicing. Tesla does not have dealerships and Teslas do not require regular servicing, so Tesla does not have such a requirement.

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20 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

Only wind turbines potentially need any rare earth elements.  Solar panels never have, so they aren't really a part of the conversation.  Modern high power density batteries also require a bunch of materials in odd quantities that rarely were required before, but they also don't require rare earth elements.  Different issues require different solutions.  

Okay, finally got around to looking it up - rare earths are more about electronics.. flat screen TVs and mobile phone displays.. point taken on rare earths . pity about all the other stuff but time to move on.. 

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14 hours ago, markslawson said:

Okay, finally got around to looking it up - rare earths are more about electronics.. flat screen TVs and mobile phone displays.. point taken on rare earths . pity about all the other stuff but time to move on.. 

REEs (rare earth elements) are also used in high-performance electric motors, like the ones in most of today's EVs. Eventually most typical EVs will shift to lower-performance cheaper motors that do not use REEs, but the supercars and hypercars will continue to use them. There are other used in industry for high-performance electric motors.

About "all the other stuff":  Copper will probably end up as the most important scarce resource inside motors and generators. You can substitute aluminum in many applications, but not in those places. I don't know how the copper per MW compares between wind generators and NG turbine generators or hydro generators. You cannot substitute aluminum for copper inside li-ion cells, but you can use aluminum outside the cells (battery busses), and you can use it instead of copper inside other types of cells such as NiG.

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2 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

REEs (rare earth elements) are also used in high-performance electric motors, like the ones in most of today's EVs. Eventually most typical EVs will shift to lower-performance cheaper motors that do not use REEs, but the supercars and hypercars will continue to use them. There are other used in industry for high-performance electric motors.

About "all the other stuff":  Copper will probably end up as the most important scarce resource inside motors and generators. You can substitute aluminum in many applications, but not in those places. I don't know how the copper per MW compares between wind generators and NG turbine generators or hydro generators. You cannot substitute aluminum for copper inside li-ion cells, but you can use aluminum outside the cells (battery busses), and you can use it instead of copper inside other types of cells such as NiG.

Remember though that substituting ‘normal’ motors and aluminum conductors for copper carries with it a weight penalty.  There is a premium on the REE motors in particular as a result.  The smaller form factor also allows a wider range of vehicle design choices. 

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39 minutes ago, Eric Gagen said:

Remember though that substituting ‘normal’ motors and aluminum conductors for copper carries with it a weight penalty.  There is a premium on the REE motors in particular as a result.  The smaller form factor also allows a wider range of vehicle design choices. 

Aluminum is lighter per Amp than copper. It does occupy more volume.

https://www.anixter.com/en_us/resources/literature/wire-wisdom/copper-vs-aluminum-conductors.html

In my opinion, copper is preferred, but not if cost rises too high.

Yes, if you want high performance, you want those physically smaller and lighter motors, and performance freaks will pay for it, but the availability of non-permag motors will put an upper bound of the cost of motors for more modest cars.

Basically, all of this means that you cannot simply extrapolate the current resource usage from 2021. The average EV in 2030 will be less capable than a 2021 Model 3 or Model Y, and will be a whole lot cheaper. Basically, nobody needs the performance of today's Teslas except on a race track.

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4 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

Aluminum is lighter per Amp than copper. It does occupy more volume.

https://www.anixter.com/en_us/resources/literature/wire-wisdom/copper-vs-aluminum-conductors.html

In my opinion, copper is preferred, but not if cost rises too high.

Yes, if you want high performance, you want those physically smaller and lighter motors, and performance freaks will pay for it, but the availability of non-permag motors will put an upper bound of the cost of motors for more modest cars.

Basically, all of this means that you cannot simply extrapolate the current resource usage from 2021. The average EV in 2030 will be less capable than a 2021 Model 3 or Model Y, and will be a whole lot cheaper. Basically, nobody needs the performance of today's Teslas except on a race track.

Did not know that tidbit about aluminum, but I was only familiar with the use cases for flexible wiring, not terminals and other use cases.  REE motors aren’t just for ‘performance freaks’.  They are also critical if you want to make small lightweight cars which have plenty of internal space by powering them with compact motors.  Physically large motors may be fine for large sedans or pickup trucks but for smaller passenger vehicles the size of the operating equipment is an important parameter.

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NO, This can’t be right, It’s the Green Revolution, Greenies are in there hay day, The Paris Accords and such, Must be mistaken and not written correctly! EV’s and renewables are supposed to save us all…….Oh the humanity of it all, Please, Please someone print the truth that this article is a far right wing hit job! Oh Uncle Joe, Say it ain’t so, Call a Rose Garden press conference and set the writer of this article straight, Do it for us all so we may know the real facts……….😂😅😂😅🤣😅🤣🤣😂

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On 7/20/2021 at 9:19 PM, RichieRich216 said:

But one of the biggest problems with Tesla – leaving aside the electric or self-driving car debates – is that they’re remarkably anti-consumer when it comes to letting customers repair their own vehicles… And are pretty cavalier when it comes to their servicing charges.

Rich Rebuilds, a.k.a. Rich Benoit, is a Massachusetts-based car enthusiast who’s made waves in recent years for his outspoken advocacy of customer’s ‘Right To Repair’, shared a worrying story about a Tesla repair that demonstrates Tesla’s cartel-like (well, almost…) behaviour

The car’s owner relates how after driving over some debris in his brand new Model 3, he damaged a small part of the car’s cooling system, which prevented the car from running entirely. After taking his vehicle to a Tesla service centre, he was quoted $16,000 after being told that the entire battery would need replacing. To add insult to injury, his insurance refused to cover the cost, too.

Instead, he reached out to Benoit, who was able to fix the small part “using a brass fitting like you’d find at any home improvement store” for only $700 – 23 times less than Tesla’s estimate and a price based almost entirely on labour and diagnostic costs. Watch Benoit’s full video on the dilemma below

While this example is a rather out-there one, it demonstrates how much money you can save if you choose to work on a car yourself (or choose third-party mechanics instead of getting your car serviced at a dealership). More to the point, it highlights a growing concern as more and more auto makers are electrifying their model ranges.

Because EVs are so heavily reliant on software updates – and because EV technology is so nascent, few mechanics have the expertise to repair them – car brands really have consumers at their mercy. Of course, even modern internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles are heavily reliant on proprietary software updates and specialised servicing, but the problem is multiplied when it comes to EVs.

The concern is that cars will become like iPhones, where it’s possible for a company to just stop offering software updates or servicing for them after a few years, making your five-figure-plus investment useless. People already call Tesla the Apple of the car world but there’s more than just a little truth to that comparison.

Last year, Apple was forced to pay out over US$113 million to settle consumer fraud lawsuits over allegations that it secretly slowed down old iPhones with clandestine software updates, a controversy that became known as ‘Batterygate’, NPR reported.

It’s not just cars where this behaviour from brands is a concern. Farm machinery brand John Deere has long been accused of monopolistic behaviour for the strict and expensive control it exercises over software updates for its tractors and the like, Bloomberg relates.

As more and more car brands join the EV revolution, the hope is that Tesla will be forced to become more competitive and consumer-friendly in order to maintain their status as the market’s leading EV maker.

Of course, the worst-case scenario is that this sort of thing just becomes the new normal… Ultimately, it’s up to us as consumers to demand more from tech and vehicle manufacturers.

DO YOUR HOMEWORK FORREST- FORREST GUMP😂

$700.00 Brass fitting at a home improvement store? This store have the name NASA on the front?

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(edited)

21 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

Aluminum is lighter per Amp than copper. It does occupy more volume.

https://www.anixter.com/en_us/resources/literature/wire-wisdom/copper-vs-aluminum-conductors.html

In my opinion, copper is preferred, but not if cost rises too high.

Yes, if you want high performance, you want those physically smaller and lighter motors, and performance freaks will pay for it, but the availability of non-permag motors will put an upper bound of the cost of motors for more modest cars.

Basically, all of this means that you cannot simply extrapolate the current resource usage from 2021. The average EV in 2030 will be less capable than a 2021 Model 3 or Model Y, and will be a whole lot cheaper. Basically, nobody needs the performance of today's Teslas except on a race track.

Copper alloys are preferred as it is economical and proven over many decades.  Aluminum can (and has) been used, with considerable "learning curves", particularly at joinings.

A better technical choice would be silver alloys, but that's not economical.

The amount of conductor/core iron used is constrained by cooling techniques.  Pure, pressurized Hydrogen gas atmospheres are used in utility-scale generators (augmented by forced-water stator cooling in VERY large generators).  All done to reduce "pounds/KW".

I am unaware of any exotically-cooled wind machines.  I believe they are all air-cooled.

Edited by turbguy

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On 7/19/2021 at 7:48 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

No Mark, you failed again. I've been posting the electricity numbers all along. That was Ron who was posting the other numbers from the old report. 

Since you are such a high caliber "Journalist" I will once more post the current numbers as reported by the Australian Gov't. Perhaps they are above your reading comprehension level? But then if you didn't lie about the numbers you wouldn't have anything to write about, would you?

image.png.399a15e649c82148f73c0211f861fd9a.png

image.png.89642bdf1feb0c6d3eedd0530f5b07ce.png

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Solar + Wind = 18%

solar (9% of total generation) followed by wind (9%) and hydro (6%)

You can find the percentage of solar and wind as shown, here:https://www.energy.gov.au/publications/australian-energy-statistics-table-o-electricity-generation-fuel-type-2019-20-and-2020

2020

"Renewable sources contributed an estimated 64,667 GWh, making up 24% of Australia’s total electricity generation.

The largest source of renewable generation was solar (9% of total generation) followed by wind (9%) and hydro (6%)."

Looks like bioenergy has gone to zero.

https://www.energy.gov.au/publications/australian-energy-statistics-table-o-electricity-generation-fuel-type-2019-20-and-2020

This is cool and the reason that solar & wind are now dispatchable.

image.png.b747e1bc427fd877055201582e9d0c16.png

image.thumb.png.c09a3adaa91424b33f253a9f54b0385d.png

 

 

To be clear, Jay keeps quoting sources on electricity generation, not total fuel used. My figures are far more important. Fuel is energy whether it is used to produce electricity, transporatation fuel, heating, fuel for machinery, agriculture etc. Jay focuses on electricity because the figures sound larger although they do not provide the big picture of energy use anywhere. I will always call out anyone who pretends otherwise. Jay even goes so far as to call out my facts as if they are untrue even though he knows otherwise. As he said we are using the same source!

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On 7/18/2021 at 5:47 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

The real picture of energy in Australia:

Surging gas prices raise alarm, threaten PM’s gas-fired recovery hopes

Energy and manufacturing businesses say the runaway prices, which are up to 10 times higher than average levels, will leave some factories exposed to the wholesale market unable to cope and raises the danger of plants being forced to close. https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/surging-gas-prices-raise-alarm-threaten-pm-s-gas-fired-recovery-hopes-20210709-p588ad.html

 

Coal the loser as power prices smashed

Mushrooming rooftop solar and mild summer weather have driven demand for power from the grid to the lowest for 19 years for the peak summer quarter, cutting wholesale prices by up to 68 per cent and pushing major coal and gas power generators such as AGL Energy to the brink.

--------

“Household electricity bills have been falling for over two years, with ABS CPI data showing household costs are currently 11.2 per cent lower than they were this time last year.

“Since the introduction of the Big Stick legislation to March this year, there have been 19 straight months of wholesale price reductions on the previous year.https://www.miragenews.com/wholesale-electricity-prices-at-nine-year-low-561044/

Dead link?

Do retail customers pay wholesale prices? They don't and sometimes energy delivery prices are higher than the electricity, then add taxes of several kinds, including one to support wind turbines and solar panels in some areas. 

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On 7/18/2021 at 7:09 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

Your complaints were about capitalism, no doubt about it. It sure isn't the greens who are making them throw stuff out. We are quite angered by  it.

Yet greenies are not very interested in looking forward toward handling all the waste products that will need to be stored in landfills forever. Not a problem if you listen to them. I would like to see them used as structural reinforcements along with rebar in concrete walls. The turbines could be cut into pieces as desired. Possible best use would be in large warehouses or agricultural buildings. 

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On 7/20/2021 at 12:06 AM, turbguy said:

A well respected Russian-born metallurgist I had the great pleasure of working with for years always said..

"Metallurgy is NOT a science, it is a Black Art"!

I had always heard that lawn mower blades could be made into good knives. My neighbor used a magnet to show me they were too magnetic, meaning they had too much iron so would not hold an edge. They cut an awful lot of grass, wet and dry, but at very high speed. Do you have any thoughts to share?

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(edited)

1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

Dead link?

Do retail customers pay wholesale prices? They don't and sometimes energy delivery prices are higher than the electricity, then add taxes of several kinds, including one to support wind turbines and solar panels in some areas. 

All the links work.

The generators pay the high fuel prices and they are losing out to lower cost renewables. Duh. That is why AGL is shutting down a gas generator and replacing it with a battery.

Edited by Jay McKinsey

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32 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Yet greenies are not very interested in looking forward toward handling all the waste products that will need to be stored in landfills forever. Not a problem if you listen to them. I would like to see them used as structural reinforcements along with rebar in concrete walls. The turbines could be cut into pieces as desired. Possible best use would be in large warehouses or agricultural buildings. 

Rubbish as usual. The truth is a google search away but why do that when you can lie? Recycling is being widely developed.

GE announces first US wind turbine blade recycling program with Veolia

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/ge-announces-first-us-wind-turbine-blade-recycling-program-with-veolia/591869/

 

End of wind power waste? Vestas unveils blade recycling technology

https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/end-wind-power-waste-vestas-unveils-blade-recycling-technology-2021-05-17/

Cement giant LafargeHolcim is teaming up with GE’s renewables unit on wind turbine recycling 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/cement-firm-works-with-ges-renewables-unit-on-wind-turbine-recycling-.html

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51 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

To be clear, Jay keeps quoting sources on electricity generation, not total fuel used. My figures are far more important. Fuel is energy whether it is used to produce electricity, transporatation fuel, heating, fuel for machinery, agriculture etc. Jay focuses on electricity because the figures sound larger although they do not provide the big picture of energy use anywhere. I will always call out anyone who pretends otherwise. Jay even goes so far as to call out my facts as if they are untrue even though he knows otherwise. As he said we are using the same source!

Renewables are taking over electricity first. Then oil with EVs. Then the wider fuel uses through deep electrification or green hydrogen. 

I never called out your facts as untrue, show the quote where I did. You are the one who said I was using speculation and not using facts. Just can't resist lying can you?

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Good articles Jay. I hope that they pan out as they should and that such uses be mandated by law. I have not heard of anything being actually used. I am sure a bit is. 

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17 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Renewables are taking over electricity first. Then oil with EVs. Then the wider fuel uses through deep electrification or green hydrogen. 

I never called out your facts as untrue, show the quote where I did. You are the one who said I was using speculation and not using facts. Just can't resist lying can you?

 You just can't resist the temptation to go ad hominem comments. Yet, you know that I am for the best solutions whether they agree with my ideas or not. I prefer to look at what is actually happening and the big picture. 

The speculation was from the Australian government projections. 

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(edited)

5 hours ago, ronwagn said:

 You just can't resist the temptation to go ad hominem comments. Yet, you know that I am for the best solutions whether they agree with my ideas or not. I prefer to look at what is actually happening and the big picture. 

The speculation was from the Australian government projections. 

I certainly never suggested that your numbers were not correct.

If you were for the best solution then you would do some research before making claims like the greenies aren't interested in recycling.

 

Edited by Jay McKinsey

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8 hours ago, turbguy said:

Copper alloys are preferred as it is economical and proven over many decades.  Aluminum can (and has) been used, with considerable "learning curves", particularly at joinings.

A better technical choice would be silver alloys, but that's not economical.

The amount of conductor/core iron used is constrained by cooling techniques.  Pure, pressurized Hydrogen gas atmospheres are used in utility-scale generators (augmented by forced-water stator cooling in VERY large generators).  All done to reduce "pounds/KW".

I am unaware of any exotically-cooled wind machines.  I believe they are all air-cooled.

Yes, copper has been the most cost-effective electrical conductor in almost all applications, basically since the dawn of the electrical age. The only really major exceptions I know of are high-voltage transmission lines and other heavy-gauge fixed wiring. However, if the cost of copper goes way up due to scarcity, it becomes cost-effective to go to the extra trouble needed to use aluminum in more applications, and that will in turn put a cap on the cost of copper.

During WWII, copper was in very short supply. All of the US silver supply from Fort Knox was shipped to Oak Ridge, TN. It was used to fabricate buss bars to use in the big "magnetic separators" which were one of the three technologies used to separate Uranium isotopes.

Your comments on cooling reveal another way to reduce copper requirements, but I suspect that the tradeoff is that the generator is losing efficiency due to resistive heating. Probably not applicable to a motor unless it allows you to regain the efficiency elsewhere, e.g. by allowing a lighter rotor that can spin faster.

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(edited)

55 minutes ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

Yes, copper has been the most cost-effective electrical conductor in almost all applications, basically since the dawn of the electrical age. The only really major exceptions I know of are high-voltage transmission lines and other heavy-gauge fixed wiring. However, if the cost of copper goes way up due to scarcity, it becomes cost-effective to go to the extra trouble needed to use aluminum in more applications, and that will in turn put a cap on the cost of copper.

During WWII, copper was in very short supply. All of the US silver supply from Fort Knox was shipped to Oak Ridge, TN. It was used to fabricate buss bars to use in the big "magnetic separators" which were one of the three technologies used to separate Uranium isotopes.

Your comments on cooling reveal another way to reduce copper requirements, but I suspect that the tradeoff is that the generator is losing efficiency due to resistive heating. Probably not applicable to a motor unless it allows you to regain the efficiency elsewhere, e.g. by allowing a lighter rotor that can spin faster.

Ah, yes...steel pennies!

The same heating issues arise, no matter if it is a synchronous motor or a generator.  I gotta think about induction motors...

Superconducting windings would be a further option, and has been attempted.  Not practical or economical (yet).  Generator (and motor) losses are small to begin with. 

There's really not much efficiency left to gain, other than making the generator somewhat smaller (and the cooling system much bigger). 

You still have to design a machine to handle the required torque input (or output) at the required RPM.

Edited by turbguy

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(edited)

6 hours ago, ronwagn said:

I had always heard that lawn mower blades could be made into good knives. My neighbor used a magnet to show me they were too magnetic, meaning they had too much iron so would not hold an edge. They cut an awful lot of grass, wet and dry, but at very high speed. Do you have any thoughts to share?

Sharp blades can be magnetic. I don't know what "too magnetic" means.

Holding an edge is something that depends upon what you do with that edge.

Heat treatment of alloys is part of that black art.

If you want a durable, REALLY SHARP edge, move to obsidian instead of metal.  That is non-magnetic.

Edited by turbguy

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16 hours ago, turbguy said:

Sharp blades can be magnetic. I don't know what "too magnetic" means.

Holding an edge is something that depends upon what you do with that edge.

Heat treatment of alloys is part of that black art.

If you want a durable, REALLY SHARP edge, move to obsidian instead of metal.  That is non-magnetic.

@ronwagn My understanding is that if the steel has enough alloying material in it that it's no longer magnetic, then it's actually BAD for many blade steels.  You need high carbon steel with very few other alloying elements to get a really sharp edge.  If you start adding a bunch of nickel, and chrome and make stainless steel of some sort, the steel is tougher and more flexible, but it's less capable of being sharpened or holding an edge.  It won't rust,  but it won't make good knives either.  it's perfect for butter knives, and cheap steak knives, but not what you want for really good quality knives.

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On 7/24/2021 at 4:05 PM, ronwagn said:

 You just can't resist the temptation to go ad hominem comments. Yet, you know that I am for the best solutions whether they agree with my ideas or not. I prefer to look at what is actually happening and the big picture. 

The speculation was from the Australian government projections. 

Jay must have emerged from a rough environment.

 

On 7/24/2021 at 4:07 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

I certainly never suggested that your numbers were not correct.

If you were for the best solution then you would do some research before making claims like the greenies aren't interested in recycling.

 

 Jay, just out of interest, what is your definition of "lying", a term you are apparently incapable of not using.

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22 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Jay must have emerged from a rough environment.

 

 Jay, just out of interest, what is your definition of "lying", a term you are apparently incapable of not using.

You say I am incapable of not using the term "lying" yet I didn't use the term "lying" in the post you quoted.

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