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(edited)

 Russia  probably also only now not in 2014 finally put some serious, although only indirect sanctions on all European agriculture.

Because apparently, even about of 70% of the total costs in agriculture are the price of energy used in this process, including, for example cost for natural gas fertilizers.

Gas on the spot is almost $ 2,000 per 1,000 m3 and in long-term contracts at 450 and getting more expensive, not cheaper now.

And in Russia its  about $ 60-80 per 1,000 m3 for a Russian farmer.

Means the Russian backward postsoviet  farmer is only now probably finally ready to compete on equal term with the Polish or French one even in the production of apples.

I can also give some golden idea to start a new bussines if you are not afraid of some Western sanctions and forrmer USRR bussines climate- you should talk directly with Lukashenka and invest some serious money in belarusian traditional huge fertilizers industry.

Good postsoviet factories and stable price of 128 $ per full next year. What you need more to run sucessfull bussiness?

 

Edited by Tomasz

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In the classic Godfather of Mafia Puzo, the veteran gangster explains patiently  to the freshman in this kind of stuff to remember that you can shave your sheeps every year, but you kill them for meat only once.

If the German industry collapses, Russia will lose its biggest customer not only in Europe but also in the world.

It is not an art to finish off even the greatest enemy, the trick is to exist wit it in symbiosis in order to gain tangible benefits.

And it is not only money, but also technologies for the population and industry.

Money itself does not create anything.

People create things with their work and ideas.

And for example Putin posterchild The Aurus car was developed in close collaboration with Porsche.

Germany also creates navigation systems for submarines in Russia.

And there are plenty of such less-known examples.

Gazprom will earn some additional $ 30 billion in Europe this year

Not that Gazprom is some kind of mafia.

Gazprom simply want to inform The collective west day after day that it has invested in NS II huge amound of money and its pipe is empty, so it is losing big money.

And also about that spot TTF prices are extremely stupid idea and let the west take this lesson and abandon this cazy idea in worlds gas indutrstry.

However I must admit that the cost of the lesson is quite high because the tutor is one of best world specialist.

Specifically, it TTF raised today to about 2,100 for 1,000 m3 and the headlines are reporting it in red.

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(edited)

I would that as a leader of rather poor country Putin finally finds him in a place he always dreams to be. Some kind of world energy price fixer or rather swing producer just like Saudi Arabia.

Can you put harsh sanctions on Saudi Arabia like disconecting it from SWIFT?

 Yes you can try of course but results might be unprodictable.

Because it is at least one level up from  gas station masquerading as a country

Edited by Tomasz

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(edited)

Gas prices on world markets in 2022-2024 may begin to gradually decline from the current records, but it is possible that they will remain higher compared to the pre-covid levels, said the deputy chairman of the board of Gazprom Famil Sadygow said.

The vice-president of Gazprom, Famil Sadygow, said that the gas prices on global markets, which are currently breaking records, should start to fall as early as next year.

We currently have an agreed forecast created by many analysts: in the years 2022-2024, gas prices in the world markets will gradually decline from the current record levels, but will remain much higher compared to the levels before the coronavirus pandemic - said Famil Sadygow in an interview for the Gazprom corporate newsletter .

At the same time, in Sadygov's opinion, the financial results of the Gazprom Group should remain "at an appropriate, very high level" even with very moderate export prices of gas according to today's standards.

 

Forecast if you want to buy - another article

Net profit 2021 2,380 bln rubles

2022 above 2,5 bln

1 $ should be about 70 rubles or below in a world of high oil and environment

100 $ oil 1 $ 55- 60 roubles

Ending of sanctions and high oil prices maybe 50

But you should remember that in 2000-2014 it  was one of strongest world currencies in real times.

Former Russian MF highly respected Alexei Kudrin say many times in 2000-2014 it strenghend about 90 % in real terms and it become a serious problem for russian economy

Its well known problem as dutch disease https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_disease

Even before 2014 Russia wanted rouble to weaken a little  maybe not about 100 % but nevertheless.

Edited by Tomasz

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(edited)

ESG movement during the pandemic and after the "oil war" last year is both stupid and crazy.

EU people should wake up and stop trusting their governments or mainstream. Europe politicians are famous for their bureaucracy and blame other countries for their failure, which leaded to WW1, WW2 to reset the economy. After the cold war, The EU bureaucracies worse:

1 From the EU block, with a common currency and therefor , common ECB. This undermines the effectiveness of individual member's fiscal policies.

2 Economics booming after WW2, Western Europe  started matching Socialism welfare policy and exporting liberalism. Yes, cheap healthcare, education and dependance on governments for retirement seems great, but should a normal healthy people have the right to choose to work and contribute or  sharing the welfare system with the retirees and disabled people. It may work in good time but when the economy is in recession, or in aging population or both, the politicians will have no choice but play a Ponzi scheme for their future elections and blame other countries to secure their jobs (and power) . Western Europe's economy were booming until 2008 without any adjustment and their citizens think their political system are the best comparing to other systems (*).

3 Banned Shale oil on Europe lead to  energy dependence on Russia.

4 Green energy's political wills  which lead to mal investments and dependence on China for the dirty works of extracting minerals with the cost of the environment our side of Europe. 

Geopolitically Europe is in very bad position where is not much natural resources. To distract the systematical mistakes above, EU politicians blame others (especially the US or Russia, but leaving China out until very recently). Back in 2016 I thought Brexit was a big mistake but after the pandemic, I start to think maybe it is short term pain for long term gain. At least they try something new. 

(*)Traditionally US people don't trust their gov, even the ones they voted for (maybe with the exception of war time), simply choosing the lesser of two evils. After the Soviet collapse, virtually US has no threat and started outsourcing general jobs. Since 2008 more and more US youngsters imported liberalism from the Europe and the work ethics is in the decline and entitlement is in the rise. However normal working US people needs to worry about their student loans, mortgage and depends on company's healthcare insurance so they tend to more commit to work. They should appreciate their  country more and keep a cautious eye to  the government. Democracy and freedom shouldn't be taken for granted.

Luckily in the US, states compete each other for development and the US people can choose which state that suit their views. But will be very tough time ahead. I don't expect everything would be normal as before covid19, the economics landscape changed. I am expecting stagnation in EU and North America like Japan in the last 30 years and have no idea how the world economy would reset while every country is on FIAT and a world war is not likely.  

Edited by SUZNV

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For those reverse Flows Germany will real Cash in

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On 12/13/2021 at 12:12 AM, dukeNukem said:

Thats is interesting. I actually thought the opposite - Americans lost their competence and France is far ahead in terms of building nuclear....

The French are building a nuclear power station in Finland with epic delays and cost overruns.  Seems like their competence went down.  If a company resumes construction of nuclear plant after a long gap, many experts are no longer employed or going senile.  Moreover, conditions change, you recruit polyglot crews for work (in Finland, Poles, Portuguese etc., not all of them fluent in French), it is harder to maintain quality.

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On 12/21/2021 at 1:34 AM, Tomasz said:

What you need more to run successful business?

 

 

An old-fashioned peasant uprising at competitor's?

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(edited)

It was a big mistake from Finland not use the simple and very reliable Rosatom Power Stations.

For the restructuring of the French nuclear power Companies was not Finlands mistake. But for accepting all changes to the Original Plans it is.

The french maintain 380 reactors there should be enough competence to maintain a new build.

Edited by Starschy
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On 12/10/2021 at 8:46 AM, Piotr Berman said:

This is VERY convoluted.  Huge part of German trade goes through Dutch ports, Rotterdam is perhaps the largest port in the world, and surely larger than any of German ports.  The Dutch surely can import EVERYTHING, including LNG.  Germans can import LNG for sure, some through facilities in Germany, some through Holland.  But what if the shippers of LNG do not want to send ships too Holland?

This is what happened this year.  In summer, the LNG prices in Asia shoot up, and LNG sailed there. Not only that, "Asians" (details are murky, but China, Japan and India were surely involved) signed long term contracts.  EU, in its wisdom, discourages such contracts.  Later NG spot prices doubled again on spot markets because most of the supply was locked in Asian contacts, and EU customers were left mostly with Algerian and Russian gas.

On the pipeline side of the supplies, Ukraine quarrels with Russia and escalates, Belarus quarrels with Poland and both escalate,  Algeria quarrels with Morocco, wouldn't you like a pipeline without any interesting news like that, just a simple, boring pipeline?

 

 

 

https://www.fluxys.com/en/products-services/activities/lng

This be closer to non-Russian sources of gas

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On 12/13/2021 at 6:12 AM, dukeNukem said:

Thats is interesting. I actually thought the opposite - Americans lost their competence and France is far ahead in terms of building nuclear....

Both Westinghouse and Areva went belly up trying to meet post-Fukushima safety regs. Only Rosatom delivers right now, with only competition coming from new guys out of China and Korea.

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On 12/13/2021 at 5:42 AM, Piotr Berman said:

I am not sure if "district heating" share is that big, but it can be.  When I lived in Warsaw, only old houses had its own heating, the rest were supplied with hot water from two co-generation power stations, and once one of them went down because of cold.  More precisely, coal supply was interrupted because of blizzards, and the coal heap in one of the power station became too small, so coal powder froze and became hard like a rock.  So in our apartment we had 3 C, no bad! still with running water, so we could survive with extra blankets and sweaters.

However, even in big cities, the co-generation power stations are smallish, the bulk of the power comes from huge power stations, and gradually they can be replaced with nuclear.  Perhaps the best place to start would be Turow where there is a huge open pit mine, and that site is surrounded by Czechia and Germany.  In Europe, annoying neighbors is the most reliable way of reducing internal controversy about the location.  Swedes build one plant as close to Denmark as they could, Czechs next to Austria, Slovaks next to Hungary, and France lined the border with Germany with nuclear plants.  This way it becomes a matter of national pride: e.g. former overlord countries, Austria for Czechs, Hungary for Slovaks, get thank-you gifts for the years of overlordship.  BTW, Belarus located its nuclear power on Lithuanian border.

But in Poland there was a stupid idea to locate nuclear power on the sea cost, favorite for vacations and far from any neighbors.  So it was "very controversial" and abandoned.   Next government tried to balance the budget without increases taxes too much, good idea but investments in energy were pushed to the future.  The current government is populist and "contrarian", so invested in coal power, including a project that was abandoned.  Only very recently they figured that nuclear power cannot be avoided -- EU has a system of CO2 permits that makes coal increasingly expensive.  But which supplier should they choose?

For reasons that elude me, the French lost the expertise to build nuclear power, so the choice was roughly American and Russian.  Hungary and Slovakia went for Russian which is modern and twice cheaper than American.  They even build it on time.  So Poland has to order from Westinghouse.  Combined with military orders and budget constraints, I think that Poland should order something from Russia, perhaps nukes?  Tanks could delayed...  NATO standards make European armies small in my opinion, perhaps beneficial...  Anyway, the current Polish government started with decent ideas, like expanding military with territorial defense (a cheap option), cancelling order for French helicopters, ordering 100 expensive limousines -- look spiffy at a NATO meeting, and compared with tanks and helicopters, saving a lot of money.  But recently they are getting a lot of expensive ideas, quarrel with EU and loosing subsidies, getting wacked because of winning a lawsuit against Gazprom, so investments in nuclear power will be hard.

If there was an intelligent government on the horizon, an affordable solution exists.  Contract Russians or Belarus to buy nuclear power, the power stations would be build across the border, and paid through a contract of fix purchases through 10-15 years.   They actually proposed that, and the conditions could be copied from Russian contracts with Hungary and Turkey.  Because Poland needs more than 10 GW, i.e. at least 10 big reactors, I guess at least 6 should be located within the country, perhaps where the gigantic coal power stations are now -- transmission capacity already exists, and 4 contracted for the faster start,

But if we go for American nukes, the faster start is not possible, the cost doubles, and construction time probably increases too.  

 

 

 

 

Abrams tank misses rush hour in Krasnoyarsk

https://twitter.com/ValLisitsa/status/1466190120575541249

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This year, Gazprom will increase gas production by 62.2 billion cubic meters. - up to 515 billion cubic meters, this will be the best result in 13 years - said the head of the company Alexei Mille

The prices of gas futures in Europe have already fallen below $ 1,600

“This year we will produce 62.2 billion cubic meters. more gas than last year and we will achieve the level of annual production of 515 billion cubic meters. New Year's conference call. Earlier in December, the company informed that its production increased to 490.4 billion cubic meters from the beginning of the year to mid-December. gas.

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(edited)

On 12/11/2021 at 3:53 AM, Piotr Berman said:

 

While there are negative aspects of blocking NS II, it remains a great idea.  In setting policies, it is important to avoid the worst possible outcomes.  And there exists a wide consensus, at least in USA, Poland and Ukraine (I cannot easily trace opinion in other countries) that the worst possible outcome is making Putin happy.  For example, in Poland, the ultimate argument in a political discussion is that "you make Putin happy", regardless which side is arguing (with small exception that count as political fringe).  And as Russia insists that blocking NS II is bad, not blocking would make Putin happy.

I guess that Tomasz may rise to the challenge and argue that the delay of NS II, started by Trump but currently in hands of European regulators made Putin happy, because it enabled the most epic squeeze play in recent memory, with Gazprom and Putin on the winner side.  In other words, while there should not be a price tag for freedom, paying that price to your opponent may be a bad choice.

By the way, the price of freedom seems pretty steep for UK too.  At long last, they are free from EU slavery, and now their electricity costs 2-3 times more than in continental Europe.  With pretty woeful ripple effect, like shortage of frozen CO2, while transportation of frozen foods depends on frozen CO2, and ordinary diet nowadays depends on frozen products.  And there must be a lot of products that cannot be produced at such prices of electricity and NG.

It would be interesting to know how things got so bad in UK.

 

 

 

 

I will show this epic NG market squeze.

People living in Warsaw (capital city of Poland) Bills per month for heating home with NG in 2021 and newest forecast for 2022 (average wage about 3500-4000. In Warsaw maybe 5.000 after taxes)

 

FHs-sNDXoBEuqt8.jpg

Edited by Tomasz

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The Internet is merciless .

The German answer to the absurdities of media and politics

 "Who turns on the heating supports Putin"

 

FHmnyGaWYAQZrlj.jpg

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(edited)

Today was the day when  Gazprom finally created their German Company.

Gas for Europe GmbH

https://www.g4e.de/en/news/

Now the German judges can proceed with North-stream 2 proceedings.

I have predicted Mid November 21, two weeks till 60 days and now we‘re close to 70 days but in a very good time frame as we have twice Christmas, European and two weaks later Russion one.

Edited by Starschy
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On 1/26/2022 at 8:53 PM, Starschy said:

Today was the day when  Gazprom finally created their German Company.

Gas for Europe GmbH

https://www.g4e.de/en/news/

Now the German judges can proceed with North-stream 2 proceedings.

I have predicted Mid November 21, two weeks till 60 days and now we‘re close to 70 days but in a very good time frame as we have twice Christmas, European and two weaks later Russion one.

Latest from under the carpet

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2298883-nord-stream-2-german-subsidiarys-chairman-resigns

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(edited)

On 8/1/2021 at 9:34 PM, Boat said:

German nat gas consumption has been flat for years. They claim they want to go to renewables. So why would they want Russian infrastructure that will be a legacy mess in a few years? 

German companies own a majority of the pipeline.  

Germans will control gas distribution to parts of Europe. 

Gazprom was forced to open German subsidiary.

If the Balkans at invaded by Russia  do you think Germany will join the rest of NATO to fight Russian forces.  No way. 

Germany is closer to both Russia and  China than U.S. 

NATO is a dinosaur.  Useless waste of U.S taxpayer dollars. 

 

 

Edited by bobo88

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(edited)

„This is VERY convoluted.  Huge part of German trade goes through Dutch ports, Rotterdam is perhaps the largest port in the world, and surely larger than any of German ports.  The Dutch surely can import EVERYTHING, including LNG.  Germans can import LNG.“

For Germany Rotterdam is better suited as Bremerhaven or Hamburg. Why?  its nearer about 200 km vs 360 km and additionally they can send it up by Ship on the Rhine river. This happened for at least 700 years. I took the center City in western Germany Cologne as reference point.

But both Bremerhaven or Hamburg are massive large Ports and only 25% smaller as Rotterdam. Combined they are bigger. 

If someone don‘t like to deliver to Rotterdam. Maybe Antwerp, Genua some French Ports may suit you better.

The best in Europe are those 4 larger Terminals in France.

 

Edited by Starschy

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On 10/1/2021 at 11:54 PM, turbguy said:

Wow!

Moss landing should have left a generator or two in place, and converted them to synchronous condensers, though.  Those provide really useful grid support that inverters struggle with.

More and more  retiring fossil sites will be replaced with batteries, since a big chunk of the grid infrastructure is already there.

Stop and think about it. 6MWH  is less than 3 seconds of power on PJM,  Ercot peaks about 70gwh summer or winter.  So 70000mwh/6mwh is 11160 of these batteries needed for one  hour. . 11600/3600sec/ht and each 6 mwh battery bank will supply ERCOT for about 3 1/2 seconds, PJM for about 2 seconds and CAISO for about 6 seconds.  Batteries won't cut it. Where do you get the lithium for 750,000 of these batteries to cover a 48 hour outage on ERCOT without recharge.  "Amateurs talk strategy. Professionals talk logistics.”  General of the  Army Omar Bradley after bailing George Patton the second time after Patton ran out of supplies.

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