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Anyone who thinks Russia should read about the Holodomor slaughter of Ukrainians.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor 

The Belarus Revolt is currently being enforced with the threat of Russian troups coming in. 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/belarus-alexander-lukashenko-how-music-became-a-weapon-in-a-revolution/

Putin is a ruthless despot for life. Lukashenko is also ruthless.

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On 8/15/2021 at 11:09 AM, dukeNukem said:

Try to avoid yellow journalism...

I should have avoided doing a reserve study of the Yamburg field, watching the Chinese take over Turkmenistan in Ashgabat and out in the Davletabad field, and taking a 5 hour helicopter ride from Nadim to the tip of the Yamal Peninsula and instead pay attention to really informed people. 

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5 hours ago, ronwagn said:

So, we must demand somewhat close parity on imports and exports. Most Americans want a fair deal. Only the WOKE Corporations want to deal with China. Unfortunately the average American has little choice because the fascist corporations want to keep dealing with China despite it being against America's best interests. We must support India and other Asian countries as well as Mexico and Canada, South America, and Eastern European nations whenever possible. Not finacially but with trade taken from China who is our foe.

The cost of that is USD would play less role in the reserve currencies, a long side with USD for oil, it will be very painful for US people to adjust. I cannot imagine how they can get rid of the Eurodollar debt bubble. US was constantly Quantity Easing since the last recession and Japan has been doing it for 30 years yet similar to Japan, USD was not much inflated comparing to other currencies (not consumer price).

Since Bretton Woods officially failed in 1970s, they prepared an SDR basket system https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_drawing_rightsThe cons in that if the SDR replace the USD and somehow convert the whole  is any country who increased their share in the basket will have to bear the trade explicit pressure the US have, in exchange for hegemony power. However IMF and Fed or Central Bank since 2008 are a bunch of politicians or should I say Bankers joined politics, Crony capitalism with Chameleon effects around central banks/FED.

Eastern Europe has some limitations:

1 They got jobs outsource from Western Europe much easier than US, because they don't have their own currencies why jobs outsourcing costs depend on exchange rates. Politicians from EU will not happy with this as it undermines the EU tariff system and compete to Western Europe products on their backyard. They can politely do it via Euro Central Bank to make the exchange rates unfavorable or increase taxes.

2 Russian is next door. US wouldn't want another hotspot like Taiwan.

Diversify jobs out of China is surely a trend, especially Xi wants to get back to Mao era he wouldn't want to open China for long. But for the US it is not that easy as not many countries have the stable political system when they open up like China did.

South America has some limitations:

Contrary to many people think, South Africa is not US backyard. Most of them are in the left, even Chile is now moving left, it is hard to tell because of disappointing in capitalism or because of too much gangs . This is the consequence of limitations from history like African countries (cold war, colonials era) and they are struggling with an efficient political system (nether eastern or western models). This will be a barrier for outsourcing jobs.  Many US tried to move manufacturing jobs to Mexico but later on get back to the US because need more labor skills. 

India has limitations: too many social classes and it takes around 3 years to open a company in India and by the time you open the factories, your opponents are well prepared. This is bad for outsource jobs which require competition to stay efficient. Kind of anti bubble country but the good side is they can handle recession well. India is not that opened for global capitalist either. 

South East Asia face similar problem to the Eastern Europe  when China is more and more hostile but they are not yet China backyard and has their own currencies. They are currently benefiting by staying neutral to both China and US.

Vietnam gov is kind of closer to China and have China gov problem:  They cannot be friendly with Democracy countries except for jobs.  But the people are vigilant to China as the burden of history and less level of brainwashing because it got both tastes in Communism and Capitalism, kind of the first of modern global immigrants in both Eastern Europe and the US during the cold war and with internet, it is hard to stop the bad mouth about Gov without affecting the remittances.  Because there is no vote in the system so it would be like that for a while. 

 

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8 hours ago, notsonice said:

You must of loved the fact that Trump released 5000 Taliban prisoners last year to go back on the battle field to  fuck over our US troops?  Trump , Brain dead coward . Worst deal ever negotiated. Trump the master of bad deals that screws the US and screws our allies.

That happened this week stupid!

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(edited)

On 8/20/2021 at 8:44 AM, RichieRich216 said:

That happened this week stupid!

The release happened in 2020 .....Try again stupid. PLEASE NOTE THE DATE OF THE RELEASES August 2020. Please note the last 400.... murderers and rapists...were released in 2020 ...... and Trump today praises the Taliban murderers and rapists. What a fucking Moron.

 

Taliban prisoner release: Afghan government begins setting free last 400

Published
 

14 August 2020

Afghanistan's government has started releasing the last 400 Taliban prisoners, paving the way for long-delayed peace talks.

Eighty prisoners were set free on Thursday, officials said, some whose crimes include attacks on Afghans and foreigners.

The release was a condition to begin negotiations to end 19 years of conflict in the country.

Peace talks are expected to start in Qatar within days of the full release.

The release was "to speed up efforts for direct talks and a lasting, nationwide ceasefire", Afghanistan's Office of the National Security Council said in a Tweet.

On the weekend, an Afghan grand assembly of elders approved the release of the 400 Taliban prisoners accused of "major" crimes after authorities initially refused to free the militants.

The prisoners include some 44 insurgents who are of particular concern to the United States and other countries for their roles in high-profile attacks.

 
The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites.View original tweet on Twitter

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani warned on Thursday that their release was a "danger" to the world, reported AFP.

"Until this issue, there was a consensus on the desirability of peace but not on the cost of it," Mr Ghani said.

The Taliban were removed from power in Afghanistan by a US-led invasion in 2001.

The group has gradually regained its strength to control more territory than at any point since that time.

Earlier this year, the US and the Taliban agreed on a peace deal to end the 19-year-long conflict in Afghanistan.

 

The deal was meant to pave the way for talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban, which had previously only agreed to talk to the US.

Negotiations for the US and Taliban had agreed that 5,000 Taliban prisoners would be released before they entered talks with the Afghan government.

Thousands were freed - however, 400 remained in prison. About 150 of them are on death row, according to AFP.

The move comes as the US announced its troop level in the country would drop below 5,000 by November.

 

 

once again

Trump released 5000 Taliban prisoners last year to go back on the battle field to  fuck over our US troops.  Trump , Brain dead coward . Worst deal ever negotiated. Trump the master of bad deals that screws the US and screws our allies.

Edited by notsonice
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So you are basically basing current news segment on a 18 month old article to hide your stupidity, you living in your parents basement? Going through old newspapers because to cheap to have current information? STFU and own your stupidity….

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That news was not big story  by the Media. This is the danger of a wing it Trump on the loose. All these presidents need to be kept on a shorter leash. It’s obvious that the military and politicians combined equal poor decisions and outcomes. They hide their games/moves with intent. We need to try an Asian woman president. The white boys are failures. 

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On 8/20/2021 at 5:27 PM, Billyjack said:

I should have avoided doing a reserve study of the Yamburg field, watching the Chinese take over Turkmenistan in Ashgabat and out in the Davletabad field, and taking a 5 hour helicopter ride from Nadim to the tip of the Yamal Peninsula and instead pay attention to really informed people. 

You have great experience. However, why are U talking such a nonsense? About " Gazprom is out of gas in Western Siberia and their only other source to supply Europe was Turkmenistan". I doubt that you have any data to support your statement. It sounds like "Earth is flat". If I am wrong, and you can prove your words, I will apologise and take my words back :)

The problem is experience and your position does not matter, if someone called "Professor" talking hogwash you should not trust his words just because he is "Professor"...Just my own example - I had few conversations with Shell managers, with Halliburton country and regional managers, and found these people have biased and limited knowledge about some oilfield aspects. But their words would be taken by someone at a face value, because "they doing top jobs in OilGas companies". This psychological effect called "Argument from authority"   

 

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(edited)

Obviously, I should have avoided working 5 years in Russia and the FSU and should have called an incredible intellect instead of doing engineering  and math.

Edited by Billyjack
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On 8/24/2021 at 2:01 PM, Billyjack said:

Obviously, I should have avoided working 5 years in Russia and the FSU and should have called an incredible intellect instead of doing engineering  and math.

Obviously you have nothing to say to support your statement :) Not necessary math and enginnering gives you ability of rational and critical thinking...

 

 

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Chancellor Angela Merkel has said natural gas should never be used as a geopolitical weapon and backed extending an energy partnership deal with Ukraine once it expires in 2024.

Merkel made the remarks in Kyiv on August 22 at a press conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Merkel is making her last visit to Ukraine before she is due to step down after elections in Germany next month. Her visit to the Ukrainian capital comes two days after meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.

Merkel has been criticized for backing the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline, which Kyiv, Washington, and others warn will not only strengthen Moscow’s energy hold on Europe but cut Ukraine out of lucrative gas transit fees.

At the press conference, Zelenskiy said talks on extending the gas transit agreement with Russia have been vague. He said he wanted to understand what Ukraine can get after the agreement expires in 2024.

Merkel has been a key supporter of Kyiv since Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimea region and began actively supporting separatist formations in parts of eastern Ukraine in 2014. That conflict has claimed more than 13,000 lives.
 

Merkel said in a news conference following her meeting with Putin that she would continue "to work for the territorial integrity of Ukraine" until she steps down following elections in Germany in September.

However, Merkel has been criticized for her stance on Nord Stream 2, which will soon double Russian natural gas supplies to Germany.

Berlin has raised the possibility of creating a mechanism to compensate Ukraine for lost revenue.

"You can call it a pragmatic approach," Zelenskiy said in an interview this week with several media outlets.

He called the German chancellor’s diplomacy a "very delicate balancing act," but he added that "in my opinion, this is too soft."

Ukraine on August 24 will celebrate the 30th anniversary of its declaration of independence from the Soviet Union.

The country will also host several European leaders on August 23 for a summit on Crimea and to discuss ways of having the peninsula returned to Ukraine, but Merkel is not planning to participate in the conference.

At the press conference in Kyiv on August 22, Merkel said Berlin considers Russia’s March 2014 annexation of Crimea as illegal.

WOW, It’s near 100 percent finished and now the BITCH has buyers remorse, SIMPLY CANNOT MAKE THIS SHIT UP……….

 

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Well if we talk about engeeniring please check facts - maybe International Mathematical Olympiad results in last 60 years

If we talk about NS and current Gazprom’s summer sales strategy and capacity bookings via Ukraine well I could write a really long post

But Im a little bit lazy so instead as always I suggest to spend 20 minutes on listening to new Oxford Institute for Energy Studies podcast

https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/oxford-energy-podcast-gazproms-summer-sales-strategy-and-capacity-bookings-via-ukraine/

listen also to this about NS II outlook

https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/oxford-energy-podcast-the-outlook-for-nord-stream-2/

 

I dont really have a lot of free time so to avoid such crap information that you can find everywhere every day I check only 2 websites for new articles about oil&gas

oilprice.com

oxfordenergy.org

I suggest everybody to do the same and to start reading only valuable websites if you have only few hours of free time after work.

 

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(edited)

As we know whole western world fights with Gazprom in order to save 3 bilions of Ukraine transit revenuse

My conlusion

1) First I hope that those poor countries in Europe would not go bankrupt during this fight against Gazprom/

For example Ukraine. Let them keep buying in the famous Rotterdam + formula. Its actually Russian gas and everyone in gas industry know that very well. Famous Rotterdam+ formula actually means that you need to buy SPOT TTF NG but with some significant additional margin for western traders engaged. Well I have really no idea what it truely means I only once read this is significant addional margin.

So well I am really very curious how much it cost for example  as today, on the spot market when at some point today the TTF NG price index exceed even $ 600 per 1,000 m3 or short period of time.

It seems that soon these poor Ukrainians because with have also Brent oil  over $ 70 and as the poor are always unlucky so of course even this unfashionable bad dirty COAL that noone really likes today is also relatively very expensive so probably because of the great war between Ukraine and Russia, the average  Ukrainian  will probably work nearly all month to pay  only for gas, petrol and electricity, and it would probably be appropriate to eat something from time to time. Today I do not know for sure but apparently the TTF has broken an all-time record as I read on some twitter account. 

2) At least on the propaganda level, they are all fighting for the welfare of the Ukrainians. This migh be actually a very interesting prosperity in the context of the fact that they had a profit of max. 2 billion from the transmission even in these best years (yes 3 billion but 1 billion is the actual cost of the system's operation according to the Kommersant's calculations - it absolutely must not be forgotten if someone without reflection writes about 3 billion, it is probably 2 billion really) Especially taking under consideration how all those fighting for the welfare of Ukrainians have been funding them record TTH NG price for lat several months actually.

3) And ultimately they made an agreement  for their prosperity as detailed in the Washington Declaration between Merkel and Biden.

It is worth explaining how Ukraine will come out on this deal

- the transit of 40 billion m3 will be maintained until 2024 - later all transit through Ukraine and Poland will be written with a finger on the water and will depend on actual real  volume of gas transmission

- these will be routes with the lowest priority for Gazprom because Ukrainian is about $ 40 more expensive than Nord Stream - so there have to be high demand for Gazprom ot the transit will simply expire

- it is estimated that $ 5-10 billion will have to be invested in the general renovation in Ukraine transit system -as of today I see really no willingness.

- lack of transit actually also means problems with gas distribution all over Ukraine due to too low gas pressure in the gas pipeline

- in return, Ukraine will get 1 billion dollars for the time being, of which Germany will contribute only 150 million dollars for which the energy transformation of Ukraine is to take place, while Germany, managing the entire project, considers nuclear energy from which Ukraine obtains about 50% of electricity as bad  non-environmental energy

- in return, this $ 1 billion will go to renewable energy sources, which to be honest, considering that today it is rather still not  competitive yet with traditional energy sources, Ukraine needs incense like a dead man.

- the money will be taken by the Germans who will again scrape the 150 million dollars themselves as the owners of the necessary technologies

- if everything goes well, the Germans will become the largest gas hub in Europe with even 110 billion m3. They will distribute this gas around Europe at the some margin LETS called it TAX for German hegemon or not, but  it simply strengthens its position in the EU and will probably additionally cash the entire region on some margin 

- for the entire 110 billion 3 Germany will pay Russia themselves as a direct importer, which means they will probably pay some 30 billion dollars a year

- Russia for all this money will do the same as always done it for many years even during Cold War which means they will buy products in Europe - happily  by far the largest percentage of Russian imports are industrial equipment in these proverbial machine tools, which for many years the Russians have been importing in very large quantities - FROM GERMANY mainy please dont make any ilusions 

-So Generally this a  golden deal for the Germans base like the main Trump slogan "Germany first"  Yes German actually  takes an example from partners.

4) It also happens that about an hour ago it turned out how this great western pressure on all fronts anno domini 2021 looks from Gazprom side. Pure profit for the first half of 2021, only a slight 986 billion rubles- for US citizens its 13,5 bilion $ .  Additionaly Russian natural gas giant Gazprom's GAZP.MM second-quarter net income jumped more than threefold from the year-earlier period to 521.2 billion roubles ($7 billion), the company said on Monday, amid recovery in energy markets.Gazprom also said its April to June revenue rose to 2.07 trillion roubles from 1.16 trillion roubles in the same period of 2020. It said it sees 2021 investment at 1.8 trillion roubles.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/russias-gazprom-says-q2-net-income-up-more-than-threefold-to-%247-bln-2021-08-30

Of course, I know that this is not all its much more complicated, but probably on September 1, 2021, Europe is definitely rather short of NG rather  than Gazprom short of money.

Edited by Tomasz
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On 8/17/2021 at 11:06 PM, ronwagn said:

Will Deutschland follow through on the promise to Biden that they will fully develop LNG import facilities to help themselves and Europe to not be fully dependent on Russia?

Tell me who wins in Sept. The SD's will build additional LNG. CDP held power during GAZPROM I and II.

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I'll say it again as I have said since the begining of NSII.  Anyone playing make believe NSII will not go through and be used is a delusional fool as the Western Europeans are hell bent on going all wind/solar as they have no oil/gas/uranium of their own.  NG is the bridge to their goal of maintaining civilization instead of going dark while they hope and pray for a battery technology to form.  They do NOT give a Shit about geopolitics. 

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Good to see such a lively discussion. Hope I can add to it in some meaningful way, as uninformed as I might be :)

 

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13 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

I'll say it again as I have said since the begining of NSII.  Anyone playing make believe NSII will not go through and be used is a delusional fool as the Western Europeans are hell bent on going all wind/solar as they have no oil/gas/uranium of their own.  NG is the bridge to their goal of maintaining civilization instead of going dark while they hope and pray for a battery technology to form.  They do NOT give a Shit about geopolitics. 

That is true Footeab, Western Europe does not care much for geo-politics these days, too busy trying to figure out how to keep the EU together. The fact that the EU has 27 members, each with a veto right, means that they are incapable of generating ANY sort of common foreign policy. They have modelled themselves on the UN, and are just as useless in world affairs. 

On the specific topic of NS2, it should be remembered that Europe is in the process of closing down it's 2 largest gas fields. The one off the coast of Holland, and the one off the coast off Norway. I have forgotten the names of the fields and am unsure as to the exact timing of their closures but if anyone here can elaborate, feel free? Point is, Euro gas imports are set to increase dramatically, and have to come from somewhere. IMHO, the focus on NS2 is silly. That is only "one leg" of many. There is also LNG from USA, Mediteranean, Africa, Qatar, even Australia. Piped gas may be the cheapest, but LNG is becoming more competitive each year and is much more flexible and reliable. NS2 has received much more attention than it deserves.

 

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On 8/2/2021 at 10:28 PM, Tomasz said:

Let me explain it straight to you.

Germany will receive 110 billion 3 billion of the cheapest Russian gas directly without intermediaries.

They will use up some of this NG and with their Energewendie policy of abandoning coal and nuclear power over the next several years  gas consumption will increase.

What they do not consume, they will distribute to Central and Eastern Europe  with additional  excess margin of an intermediary and also as the largest gas hub in Europe.

They will consolidate without war with economic means what they were striving for and triggered for World War I and World War II  - the plan of the so-called Mitteleuropa, i.e. Central European economies and vasal-countries cooperating with Germany as sub-suppliers of rich Germany.

They will cash the entire Central Europe on margin, so. they will earn easy money even without having a material product.

In the end, they will  be the only customer that pays Russia the entire fee for 110 billion m3 so lets  say some USD 30 billion $.

What will Russia do with this money - the same thing like always so in exchange for the commodities sold to germany , they will buy industrial machinery, cars, trucks, or everything that the German industry has in excess and is looking for a market.

With all due respect, anyone who thinks that it is not in the German core national interest is really very stupid, so let everyone cry on Twitter with chicks because everyone would try to make such a golden deal as if they only had the opportunity to do so.

The USA finally decided that Germany was their main partner in Europe and needed Germany on its side and also at least a little more neutral Russia in the conflict with China, so the end of the whole battle was obvious.

If only it were that simple Tomasz. At the end of the day, what you say is true FOR NOW. However, the US knows it will be in hot conflict with China within 24 months, and that Russia will be either fighting for China in Asia, or invading Poland and the Ukraine whilst the US, UK, and France are tied up in the Indo-Pacific. So the US is planning for both contingencies. That is why there is now the QUAD as well as NATO. Both China AND Russia will be decimated during the next major war. The USA is simply waiting until they have finished development of their next-generation anti-missile missile sytem. They plan on shooting down hypersonic missiles. I think history will show that this is the calm before the storm. As a matter of fact, we are not far from calling check mate. China and Russia were stupid enough to force the West into a corner, now our only option is to fight, which we will. Time to teach the communists and dictatorships of the world a lesson they will never forget. And we will. Xi and Putin would have to be the most stupid leaders of the 21st century. History will not treat them kindly.

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the geo politics of energy  has only just gotten itself  deepr in the hole.

there aint enogh  plants to make electricty.

with the oncoming boom  in mobil internet devices  and the constant need    for an electical current to maintian

     the  security of the world currency known as  the bit coin   the  resolution  will be found of fof scotland with there technoogy in havesting  theo ocean   power  of  the changing of the ebb tide and wave power.

all other imputs to   generate electicty  are not going anywhere for the   forseable futirue,  10 -30 years  min.    oil  has to many petro dollars attached  after the sale of oil  in the refinmnets of oil,   coal power plants  elctricity is sorely needed     hydroelectric  are going to have issues with  the readjustmentr of eaths water cycle   as the galciers  calving   will increase   the carring capacity of many rivers , whil e concurrently   rebirthing    rivers in  the arabia penisula   and various  places   in africa.   a rebalancing,    the planets  transformation  in supporting all life has begun  its irrevesable,  no matter how many   chemtrails are sparyed  no matter what  happens  the  hole over  antartica  will  be sealup

  and   the   so called apndemic  microbe will adjust   and learn to breath.  if you look at ts molecular strucure  is like   a horn insrumnet    that reminds  itself  an dothers    thou sahall not  kill.     no matter what sect  what religion  what story of creation you look at   thou shall not kill  is prevelant in all.  lions do not kill lions,   nature  does not kill.  nature has a food  chain, a food supply  based upon the   myto plankton  zooplankton and krill up to the  largets  mamils  and retils     as well as winged animaals.

 

eventually    the human race will learn  not to kill   for econmic   conquest   the  aim and goal of evry past and future military adventure.

the bankers  will rule with the state  enacting the legislation needed  to govrn1.)   th epaying of revenues to the state   taxes

     the  division of who gets what wehere when and   how, the basis of all economic activity,  and  a retrn of   the trade  based upon ratios   a   for profit  know as arbitrage will begin to dominate      trading floors.

the onset of the bit coin    numerated  numeraired shecked     in    every crrencys   value  but never     relative to gold,   as it will never have  itself attached to gold,   but  who gets to be the bitcoins reserve  currency,   currently its the usa   however they will have to   quote the bitcoin in all crrnecys      becuse   the bit coin will buy a  merceds bens  in   the nited arab  emirates one day in united arab emerates    denominated money .   has to  its planetary  becaus eof the internet and  mobil   bit coin wallets.

  its long and   not to easy to explain the progression that will tak eplace.

   the bankers will take exception to paypal   reaping rather large profits from  bit coin       not  trades   but   bit coin purchases   thru paypal will do there work  to attract  transactions,  pay pal and others   can not  pay interset  as a bank can.    

  again  the elecricity  needed for the   miners of bit coins to ensure proper  allocation of the spent  bit coin,  (  this 1/50th  of this bit coin)   has been spent at  store  w{   the  .07   cent  of the  1/50th of the   spent bit coin  sales tax   will automaticlly be  withdrawn from the propriters   account  withthe state}{as  the propriter is a   willing/ non willing   tax collector   fo rthe states  all 50  with in the  republic of the unite dstates)}}    the amount  of computations need will be met by super computers humming   24/7   figuring out each transaction and  tracking the  pools of spne  bit coin so that each and every bit coin holders individual account will acuratly reflect the true amount of bit coin they have    the term bit coin refers to all  crypto currency,   the computer   availablity  in    meg  bite      is yet to  happen    tetra bites and gigabites aint enough.

  so   the  inputs  to    having enough electrical power available to  kepp the grid humming for   now   bit coin actiivty is allready stressed.

and  the computations needed are going to become more complex,    the amount of lectricty need for   increaes is at a breaking point. 

 oil aint going away neithe ris coal.

   the gren energy push is in its infancy  and     now  and for the next 20-50  a piple dream.

  lets go find a elctrical   gas station 140  mile range   what a joke  that is.

the rgion conflicts over the inputs needed for electricty and economic superiority  will boil down to   who can generate    more tax money  via there currency/   to support the state. without an  never ending   reocurring  tax   revenue stream your state is doomed to  non prosperity.

   sincerly    the one share junkey!

 

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17 hours ago, Wombat1 said:

That is true Footeab, Western Europe does not care much for geo-politics these days, too busy trying to figure out how to keep the EU together. The fact that the EU has 27 members, each with a veto right, means that they are incapable of generating ANY sort of common foreign policy. They have modelled themselves on the UN, and are just as useless in world affairs. 

On the specific topic of NS2, it should be remembered that Europe is in the process of closing down it's 2 largest gas fields. The one off the coast of Holland, and the one off the coast off Norway. I have forgotten the names of the fields and am unsure as to the exact timing of their closures but if anyone here can elaborate, feel free? Point is, Euro gas imports are set to increase dramatically, and have to come from somewhere. IMHO, the focus on NS2 is silly. That is only "one leg" of many. There is also LNG from USA, Mediteranean, Africa, Qatar, even Australia. Piped gas may be the cheapest, but LNG is becoming more competitive each year and is much more flexible and reliable. NS2 has received much more attention than it deserves.

 

You are right about gas field - it called Groningen. Expected closure in the mid 2022.... It is about 8-10 bcm3 gone. Moreover, Germany closing nuclear power plants (not sure how to estimate it in terms of bcm3 of natural gas, but it should be reasonable amount) + gradually closing coal generation power plants.

 

Regarding LNG - it is relatively flexible and relatively reliable. Because most of LNG contract are signed for the long-term and not many extra LNG available on the market, which can be sold instantly on spot prices. We can see extremely high spot prices in Europe and Asia, so what? extra "free" LNG could not satisfy this demand...Plus there are problems with transportation, not many LNG cargos available immediately, when you need it and day-rates can vary a lot. 

 

P.S. regarding your nickname I can guess that you are from Australia? I am not sure how things going there at the moment, but while ago Santos had big problems - they simply did not have enough gas to fulfill their obligations for Asian clients.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, dukeNukem said:

You are right about gas field - it called Groningen. Expected closure in the mid 2022.... It is about 8-10 bcm3 gone. Moreover, Germany closing nuclear power plants (not sure how to estimate it in terms of bcm3 of natural gas, but it should be reasonable amount) + gradually closing coal generation power plants.

 

Regarding LNG - it is relatively flexible and relatively reliable. Because most of LNG contract are signed for the long-term and not many extra LNG available on the market, which can be sold instantly on spot prices. We can see extremely high spot prices in Europe and Asia, so what? extra "free" LNG could not satisfy this demand...Plus there are problems with transportation, not many LNG cargos available immediately, when you need it and day-rates can vary a lot. 

 

P.S. regarding your nickname I can guess that you are from Australia? I am not sure how things going there at the moment, but while ago Santos had big problems - they simply did not have enough gas to fulfill their obligations for Asian clients.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah, am from Queensland, where we are free of covid. Same for Western Australia. So Australia has been lucky again in the sense that our resource exports have boomed despite the pandemic. Santos, Origin, and Woodside are just starting to recover from the "double crashes" in the oil price. Were almost wiped out by the collapse in the oil price in 2016, were just getting over it when covid crashed the price again, but iron ore prices spiked over the last 18 months and kept the dollars flowing in so our govt was able to borrow massive amounts to bail out New South Wales and Victoria without sparking a balance of payments problem. Now that iron ore prices are falling, LNG prices are rising and as you know, Australia is the world leader in LNG exports. As I say, very lucky to have a diversity of resource exports. The Chinese banned our coal, but India was more than happy to take it and now wants as much as we can possibly give them :) We are also the worlds 4th largest producer of gold, a very large exporter of agricultural products, but having said all that, still facing enormous challenges.

The govt debt is ginormous (as is household debt), the tourism and retail industries are on their knees thanks to the severe lockdowns in NSW and Victoria, and manufacturing is virtually non-existent now. Also, we are spending vast quantities on defence acquisitions due to the threat of invasion by China. So there is a lot of tension in the national psyche. The Olympics provided some relief but we are heading into election season and the mood is a bit tense. When we look at the USA and Europe, we scratch our heads and think "holy f***! Is the next global financial crises gonna be even worse than the last one"? So between the positive outlook for our export industries, is the constant worry of the next war and the chance of house prices crashing and bringing down the banking system. A lot of uncertainty and the covid pandemic is adding to it. Everyone just wants to get back to "normal" but knows we will be on a war footing for quite some time and we are getting tired of our state and fed governments taking advantage of the situation. They are becoming very draconian. Our vaccine passports will not be used just for international travel, but domestic travel as well. Even just to visit the local cafe, you will need to show that you have been vaccinated and the govt will know all of your movements all of the time if you are silly enough to download their covid app on your smart phone. Becoming very Orwellian and the protests are just beginning.

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Piped gas beats the economics of liquefaction hands down. All the political B.S. isn't going to change that. 

The only down side I see is combustion energy changes the trajectory of our planet's chemistry. That's a pretty big down side. 

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(edited)

So when NS II is finally finished lets make some trolling against European Union energy policy. Maybe yes from poor relation but someone who is actually making bilions on this current policy.

The European Union is like a child.  It banned Gazprom from using 50% of Nord Stream. II. There has to be another independent gas supplier than Gazprom. Well, the Russians took note of it and will probably allow Rosneft to eventually export gas to Europe from the beginning of 2022. It is worth emphasizing that BP (British Petroleum) has almost 20% of shares in Rosneft. The CEO of Rosneft is a former high-ranking KGB officer and Putin's advisor, Igor Siechin. Close confidant and very powerful former security officer- for sure indepent CEO as hell. ISuch people are called stoligarchs in Russia - not a oligarch because he is not a owner of Rosneft but stoligarch - very powerful CEO of actually second biggest oil producer in the world (Rosneft oil production is about 4-5 milion barrels per day dependent we have OPEC+ production cut or not)

Something about stoligarchs from bussiness english press - good one https://www.intellinews.com/meet-the-stoligarchs-putin-s-pals-who-control-a-fifth-of-the-russian-economy-99918/


The entire collective West wanted it, and it brought traded  spot futures and all this financial engineering to the gas market.

The market is supposed to be determined by global spot LNG prices like HH, TTF or JKM, but not some long-term crude oil-based contracts

The Americans, of course, wanted to fight with Russian gas  just like but 3 notes:
1) Gazprom is sometimes called the Saudi Arabia gas market - the largest and by far the cheapest cost producer when it comes to production costs - a player on the market with such a colossus, even the West cannot play games because Gazprom's market power is huge. You can call him today as swing producer more acurately than probably Saudi Arabia after shale oil revolution.
2) Every sensible hard-hitting person who is a little interested in how this world actually works knows very well that where once speculators and this crazy traders of all types finally get in, it will always be more expensive than it would be if these players / speculators were not there

3) The result disadvantaged gas users are traders and gas producers.

Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) Tweeted: Oil has flat-lined since June, but the rest of the energy complex is on fire: WTI ~$70 a barrel Brent ~$73 a barrel TTT gas ~$18 per mBtu (all time high) LNG: ~$20 per mBtu (seasonal record high) Newcastle coal >$170 a tonne (13-year high) EU power >€110 per MWh (highest ever)

 

So finally some trollling from yesterday as end of NS II saga

E-6e3lfXsAg2oZN.jpeg

 

But if you dont like trolling maybe bloomberg 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-06/the-era-of-cheap-natural-gas-ends-as-prices-surge-by-1-000 

Edited by Tomasz
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On 8/25/2021 at 12:57 PM, dukeNukem said:

Obviously you have nothing to say to support your statement :) Not necessary math and enginnering gives you ability of rational and critical thinking...

 

 

Yes we should only believe what ever the government says, like you 'woke again" flock that worship the government. That's the reason that they try to reduce math education so they can say anything they want regardless of whether it adds up.

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On 9/11/2021 at 10:17 AM, Tomasz said:

So when NS II is finally finished lets make some trolling against European Union energy policy. Maybe yes from poor relation but someone who is actually making bilions on this current policy.

The European Union is like a child.  It banned Gazprom from using 50% of Nord Stream. II. There has to be another independent gas supplier than Gazprom. Well, the Russians took note of it and will probably allow Rosneft to eventually export gas to Europe from the beginning of 2022. It is worth emphasizing that BP (British Petroleum) has almost 20% of shares in Rosneft. The CEO of Rosneft is a former high-ranking KGB officer and Putin's advisor, Igor Siechin. Close confidant and very powerful former security officer- for sure indepent CEO as hell. ISuch people are called stoligarchs in Russia - not a oligarch because he is not a owner of Rosneft but stoligarch - very powerful CEO of actually second biggest oil producer in the world (Rosneft oil production is about 4-5 milion barrels per day dependent we have OPEC+ production cut or not)

Something about stoligarchs from bussiness english press - good one https://www.intellinews.com/meet-the-stoligarchs-putin-s-pals-who-control-a-fifth-of-the-russian-economy-99918/


The entire collective West wanted it, and it brought traded  spot futures and all this financial engineering to the gas market.

The market is supposed to be determined by global spot LNG prices like HH, TTF or JKM, but not some long-term crude oil-based contracts

The Americans, of course, wanted to fight with Russian gas  just like but 3 notes:
1) Gazprom is sometimes called the Saudi Arabia gas market - the largest and by far the cheapest cost producer when it comes to production costs - a player on the market with such a colossus, even the West cannot play games because Gazprom's market power is huge. You can call him today as swing producer more acurately than probably Saudi Arabia after shale oil revolution.
2) Every sensible hard-hitting person who is a little interested in how this world actually works knows very well that where once speculators and this crazy traders of all types finally get in, it will always be more expensive than it would be if these players / speculators were not there

3) The result disadvantaged gas users are traders and gas producers.

Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) Tweeted: Oil has flat-lined since June, but the rest of the energy complex is on fire: WTI ~$70 a barrel Brent ~$73 a barrel TTT gas ~$18 per mBtu (all time high) LNG: ~$20 per mBtu (seasonal record high) Newcastle coal >$170 a tonne (13-year high) EU power >€110 per MWh (highest ever)

 

So finally some trollling from yesterday as end of NS II saga

E-6e3lfXsAg2oZN.jpeg

 

But if you dont like trolling maybe bloomberg 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-06/the-era-of-cheap-natural-gas-ends-as-prices-surge-by-1-000 

Tomasz, the EU prevented BHP from taking over Rio Tinto back in 2006 on the basis of competition policy. The Chinese got 15% of Rio Tinto 2 years later during the GFC. And they demanded spot pricing. The result? They have been paying exuberant prices for iron ore ever since. Then the Americans started bragging about how they were going to crush the Australian LNG industry by introducing spot prices to Asia. The result? Record high prices long before it has now finally occurred in Europe. As you say, the introduction of speculators has made life difficult for energy companies and consumers alike. I have mentioned this on another thread, "Green New Deal = Blizzard of Lies". The thrust of my argument was that market volatility over the last 13 years has made it impossible for energy companies to invest heavily. Especially the Western oil majors, who also face green tape. As a hard-hitter myself, I can say that "every dog has it's day", and so will be the case for Putin and Russia. I expect the Nord Stream 2 will make fantastic profits for 5-6 years, but start to become unviable after that. There is just so much gas in the Mediteranean and Qatar/Iran that consumer countries will gain the upper hand eventually and Hydrogen will be the straw that breaks the camel's back.

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