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Biden Sets Target Of 50% EV Share In U.S. Car Sales In 2030

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U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order setting a target to make 50 percent of all new vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 zero-emission vehicles. It includes battery electric, plug-in hybrid electric, or fuel cell electric vehicles. This move as supported  by Detroit’s Big Three.Although the U.S. automakers are all investing billions in EV production in anticipation of a shift in buyer behavior, challenges remain.Can Tesla, GM, Ford, & others deliver on Biden’s 50% EV by 2030 goal?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/08/05/president-joe-bide-zero-emissions-vehicles-2030-goal/5489643001/ 

Edited by Adam Varga
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First of all, IMHO Biden does not have the power to make this decision and foist it on the car companies that sell cars in the United States. This would have to pass Congress which is not stupid enough to do so. It is just a threat that will be used to intimidate those with a weak heart and brain. The American people will not agree to pay the bill for the gigantic infrastructure that the electric cars would need and they do not want a great percentage of electric cars to begin with. They want their big SUVs, their pickup trucks, and vans. There is a smaller group of people that want electric vehicles that need to be charged over a substantial period of time. 

Sticker shock will be a huge factor for both ICE and EV's. Many people will keep their cars or buy a used one. People will chose to take better care of them and see them as classics. That is what has happened in Cuba since they have a tough time affording new imports. I really think that people will buy the car they want and can afford. 

I just got done driving through the oil country from Tulsa and Oklahoma City and all through the Permian. Odessa Texas is growing like crazy and the new construction is amazing. Oil workers are everywhere and looking for housing (which is not cheap). The oil workers drive pickup trucks and drive them fast. They will not be interested in charging them with electricity. 

Biden is angering a lot of people all around America with his Covid masking and forcing children to wear masks. They are already mad about  high gasoline prices. Now they see a President who wants to take away their ICE cars and pickups. They are mad about liberals letting criminals run free and policemen being made into the bad guys. Criminals are the bad guys. Inflation is running rampant under Biden. I see a major backlash coming in 2022 and another in 2024. 

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Hi Ron.

There is an 11 minute Tony Seba video from 2016 that talks about the cost curve for Electric Vehicles (primarily battery costs). He gets most of the predictions timing pretty close but the Key message is  - it wont make any financial sense to buy an ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) vehicle from 2025 on - due to the 16% rate of improvement/yr in the cost for Batteries. Who can compete a vehicle that has 100X less moving parts and is approx. 10x cheaper to operate. With solar panels on your roof, it is zero marginal cost. Nothing can compete with zero marginal cost.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7Jg1IJ68_g

if that gets removed, just Google "The Electric Vehicle Disruption - End Of Oil by 2030'

Let me know what you think.

 

You also mention infrastructure - the transition from horse to auto in NYC took 13 years and in that time we built the oil infrastructure and the automobile infrastructure so disruption can evolve very quickly. The disruption pace for color TVs, computers. laptops and cell phones was even faster. throughout history, Any 10x improvement in a industry became a disruption in that industry from the Guttenberg press till  today.

Telsas easily travel the country at-will using the supercharger infrastructure that they built. Other makes are following as the infrastructure is continuously improving. I plug mine in  (like a cell phone) and in the morning i have 300 miles of range so that part is easier than gas stations. I have a truck on order that will have 3 motors with 500+ miles of range, 14000+ lbs of towing, all wheel drive and air suspension for less than the price of a Raptor. and 0-60 in 2.9 seconds - its gonna be a hoot.... and a Beast. I could probably tow Rhode Island with that thing. The electric Ford F150 looks to be an excellent truck and that is out next year as well.

This Energy/Transportation disruption cannot be stopped because it is a cheaper and better option. Incumbents have only managed to delay that in the US. in Europe, EVs/PHEV's in Germany are already 26% of the new vehicles from 5-8% just last 2019 - they are in the vertical part of the disruption "S-Curve". China is expecting 20% all new cars to be EVs by 2025.  The US is harming its ability to compete since there is there is not much meaningful American (Battery) manufacturing infrastructure aside from Telsa's Freemont, Giga-Nevada and Giga-Austin plants. Lucky for us that foreign companies in the US are building fast to supply the GM/Ford and other automakers as they scramble to avoid irrelevance and bankruptcy/mergers/bankruptcy.

Disruption always comes from the outside. Stellantis, Honda, Subaru, Mazda, GM  are obviously dead and BMW, Merc and Audi are in Deep trouble - maybe Toyota can survive but their attitude is one of arrogance and stupidity so even all that money might not be enough. VW is really the only one serious enough to make it and i hope that FORD has a hit with the F150 lightning in '22

Of course, Transportation as a Service (TaaS) or Autonomous EVs will save the average American $6k per year buy not having a car payment, no car insurance and no maintenance. That will add 1Trillion in spending power into the economy. "Why own something expensive like a car that you only use 4% of the time. so car ownership will dwindle by 2030. Uber went from an idea to more bookings than the entire taxi industry in 10 years so disruptions happen fast. 

 

My expectation is that the world is Carbon neutral by 2035 and 2040 at the latest and carbon negative after that.

Mike 

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On 8/10/2021 at 12:23 PM, MMA55 said:

Hi Ron.

There is an 11 minute Tony Seba video from 2016 that talks about the cost curve for Electric Vehicles (primarily battery costs). He gets most of the predictions timing pretty close but the Key message is  - it wont make any financial sense to buy an ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) vehicle from 2025 on - due to the 16% rate of improvement/yr in the cost for Batteries. Who can compete a vehicle that has 100X less moving parts and is approx. 10x cheaper to operate. With solar panels on your roof, it is zero marginal cost. Nothing can compete with zero marginal cost.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7Jg1IJ68_g

if that gets removed, just Google "The Electric Vehicle Disruption - End Of Oil by 2030'

Let me know what you think.

 

You also mention infrastructure - the transition from horse to auto in NYC took 13 years and in that time we built the oil infrastructure and the automobile infrastructure so disruption can evolve very quickly. The disruption pace for color TVs, computers. laptops and cell phones was even faster. throughout history, Any 10x improvement in a industry became a disruption in that industry from the Guttenberg press till  today.

Telsas easily travel the country at-will using the supercharger infrastructure that they built. Other makes are following as the infrastructure is continuously improving. I plug mine in  (like a cell phone) and in the morning i have 300 miles of range so that part is easier than gas stations. I have a truck on order that will have 3 motors with 500+ miles of range, 14000+ lbs of towing, all wheel drive and air suspension for less than the price of a Raptor. and 0-60 in 2.9 seconds - its gonna be a hoot.... and a Beast. I could probably tow Rhode Island with that thing. The electric Ford F150 looks to be an excellent truck and that is out next year as well.

This Energy/Transportation disruption cannot be stopped because it is a cheaper and better option. Incumbents have only managed to delay that in the US. in Europe, EVs/PHEV's in Germany are already 26% of the new vehicles from 5-8% just last 2019 - they are in the vertical part of the disruption "S-Curve". China is expecting 20% all new cars to be EVs by 2025.  The US is harming its ability to compete since there is there is not much meaningful American (Battery) manufacturing infrastructure aside from Telsa's Freemont, Giga-Nevada and Giga-Austin plants. Lucky for us that foreign companies in the US are building fast to supply the GM/Ford and other automakers as they scramble to avoid irrelevance and bankruptcy/mergers/bankruptcy.

Disruption always comes from the outside. Stellantis, Honda, Subaru, Mazda, GM  are obviously dead and BMW, Merc and Audi are in Deep trouble - maybe Toyota can survive but their attitude is one of arrogance and stupidity so even all that money might not be enough. VW is really the only one serious enough to make it and i hope that FORD has a hit with the F150 lightning in '22

Of course, Transportation as a Service (TaaS) or Autonomous EVs will save the average American $6k per year buy not having a car payment, no car insurance and no maintenance. That will add 1Trillion in spending power into the economy. "Why own something expensive like a car that you only use 4% of the time. so car ownership will dwindle by 2030. Uber went from an idea to more bookings than the entire taxi industry in 10 years so disruptions happen fast. 

 

My expectation is that the world is Carbon neutral by 2035 and 2040 at the latest and carbon negative after that.

Mike 

As @MMA55 said, there is strong evidence that the US market will go 50+% EV by 2030 solely because of market forces. Any action taken by the government is both superfluous and impotent.

Why, then, would the government take such action? Because now politicians can claim credit for the free market's accomplishments. There are a variety of reasons why socialist politicians want to claim that credit, not the least of which is avoiding any inconvenient truths about capitalism's efficacy.

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