Europe risks freezing in the dark this winter

[QuarterCenturyVet + 312]

Thanks to "progressive" energy policies that are more lip service than public service, a massive opportunity was missed to help Europe become less dependent on Russian energy.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Europe-Could-Face-A-Natural-Gas-Crisis-This-Winter.html

 

[turbguy + 1,401]

On 8/13/2021 at 9:00 AM, QuarterCenturyVet said:

Thanks to "progressive" energy policies that are more lip service than public service, a massive opportunity was missed to help Europe become less dependent on Russian energy.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Europe-Could-Face-A-Natural-Gas-Crisis-This-Winter.html

 

If Europe has a winter this year...

[QuarterCenturyVet + 312]

7 hours ago, turbguy said:

If Europe has a winter this year...

Dumb comment^^^

They have winter every year. Even if it doesn't drop below 5°C, it's enough to kill people that don't have heat. 

 

[Rob Plant + 2,616]

On 8/15/2021 at 6:33 AM, turbguy said:

If Europe has a winter this year...

Yep Europe still have winters

https://www.currentresults.com/Weather/Europe/Cities/temperature-january.php

[QuarterCenturyVet + 312]

7 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Yep Europe still have winters

https://www.currentresults.com/Weather/Europe/Cities/temperature-january.php

Winter? How about summer in Nakiska Alberta? 

Nakiska Ski Area cheers brief summer snowfall months ahead of hill opening

https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/mobile/nakiska-ski-area-cheers-brief-summer-snowfall-months-ahead-of-hill-opening-1.5550561

[markslawson + 1,042]

On 8/14/2021 at 1:00 AM, QuarterCenturyVet said:

Thanks to "progressive" energy policies that are more lip service than public service, a massive opportunity was missed to help Europe become less dependent on Russian energy.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Europe-Could-Face-A-Natural-Gas-Crisis-This-Winter.html

My understanding of LNG trading is that to import LNG BY SHIP you need special dock facilities which the Europeans may not have. Asian countries have them and Australia is getting at least one - although we export masses of LNG the population centres are thousands of kilometres away from the main production areas. Okay so a few shiploads may not do all that much but it'll help. As for the winters, its also my understanding that several winters in Europe and North America in the past decade or so have been arctic, where those arctic conditions have been blamed on global warming. Gas still needed. 

[RichieRich216 + 454]

The EU has bought into the Paris Accords and did so in their own peril! If you freeze, Oh well…..

[Rob Plant + 2,616]

7 hours ago, markslawson said:

My understanding of LNG trading is that to import LNG BY SHIP you need special dock facilities which the Europeans may not have.

Mark there a number of LNG docks in Europe and many proposed ones.

https://www.kslaw.com/attachments/000/006/010/original/LNG_in_Europe_2018_-_An_Overview_of_LNG_Import_Terminals_in_Europe.pdf?1530031152#:~:text=There are currently 28 large,Germany%2C Norway and Gibraltar).

@ronwagn is correct when he states the future is LNG

[markslawson + 1,042]

16 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Mark there a number of LNG docks in Europe and many proposed ones.

https://www.kslaw.com/attachments/000/006/010/original/LNG_in_Europe_2018_-_An_Overview_of_LNG_Import_Terminals_in_Europe.pdf?1530031152#:~:text=There are currently 28 large,Germany%2C Norway and Gibraltar).

Okay - I stand corrected. Thanks for that. And we're all agreed on LNG. Hopefully teh international market for the fuel will continue to develop.

[RichieRich216 + 454]

🥶

[Chuko + 4]

17 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Mark there a number of LNG docks in Europe and many proposed ones.

https://www.kslaw.com/attachments/000/006/010/original/LNG_in_Europe_2018_-_An_Overview_of_LNG_Import_Terminals_in_Europe.pdf?1530031152#:~:text=There are currently 28 large,Germany%2C Norway and Gibraltar).

@ronwagn is correct when he states the future is LNG

The problem isn't the lack of LNG import terminals, it's the huge excess in them. Billions of euros were invested into a capacity of over 220bln cubic meters per year and the actual deliveries have never reached even half of that. Most of the time terminals are utilised at 10-30% of their potential making pure losses for the owners for the rest of the time. If that isn't very bad business, then I don't know what is.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Well, I see a prince like from a fairy tale appearing in the last act of the play and saving the princess - Nord Stream II.

For some time the prince just wants to make sure that the princess dreams about him really so much - so now we have record high NG prices in Europa,

For now, she was brave and decisive and convinced her father, who lives overseas, to allow her to get married, and looking at what the gas reserves throughout Europe look like, she starts to look around more and more nervously when the prince finally comes to save her from trouble.

And seriously, Europe has one of this prospect - either NS II or it will be very expensive gas at least for some time in Europe.

However, the entire collective West wanted a spot gas market based on the global LNG market.

Of these, they did not foresee that a whole lot of stock exchange traders and speculators will appear like on the oil market right now, and two Gazprom has more or less the same position as Saudi Arabia on the oil market.

So it will be probably more expensive gas than it might be based on long-term contracts based on oil price, but the decision is that  gas market should follow the oil market . Good for traders not for consumers and industry.

Edited August 20, 2021 by Tomasz

[notsonice + 1,069]

On 8/13/2021 at 9:00 AM, QuarterCenturyVet said:

Thanks to "progressive" energy policies that are more lip service than public service, a massive opportunity was missed to help Europe become less dependent on Russian energy.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Europe-Could-Face-A-Natural-Gas-Crisis-This-Winter.html

 

Europe risks freezing in the dark this winter????

 

a processing plant has a fire and you start babbling Europe risks freezing in the dark this winter????  What a joke. The education system in Canada must really suck. Go back to school Junior.

[QuarterCenturyVet + 312]

On 8/20/2021 at 2:13 AM, notsonice said:

Europe risks freezing in the dark this winter????

 

a processing plant has a fire and you start babbling Europe risks freezing in the dark this winter????  What a joke. The education system in Canada must really suck. Go back to school Junior.

What's the title of the article, goof boy. 

Yeah. Maybe read a little.

Also, "freezing in the dark" is a reference to a Peter Lougheed quote about Pierre Trudeau's National Energy Policy that sought to nationalize the entire O&G industry in the 80s and damn near bankrupted the western provinces. Our interest rates were almost 30%. 

My education, memory, and IQ would smash your feeble mind. 

[specinho + 440]

 

Or forest fire........

[ronwagn + 6,290]

23 hours ago, Tomasz said:

Well, I see a prince like from a fairy tale appearing in the last act of the play and saving the princess - Nord Stream II.

For some time the prince just wants to make sure that the princess dreams about him really so much - so now we have record high NG prices in Europa,

For now, she was brave and decisive and convinced her father, who lives overseas, to allow her to get married, and looking at what the gas reserves throughout Europe look like, she starts to look around more and more nervously when the prince finally comes to save her from trouble.

And seriously, Europe has one of this prospect - either NS II or it will be very expensive gas at least for some time in Europe.

However, the entire collective West wanted a spot gas market based on the global LNG market.

Of these, they did not foresee that a whole lot of stock exchange traders and speculators will appear like on the oil market right now, and two Gazprom has more or less the same position as Saudi Arabia on the oil market.

So it will be probably more expensive gas than it might be based on long-term contracts based on oil price, but the decision is that  gas market should follow the oil market . Good for traders not for consumers and industry.

Meanwhile Russia is asking higher prices for its natural gas blaming natural gas shortages. Be careful who you trust for your heat and power. Europe must depend on all world suppliers and get the best prices. 

[nsdp + 449]

On 8/17/2021 at 7:09 PM, markslawson said:

My understanding of LNG trading is that to import LNG BY SHIP you need special dock facilities which the Europeans may not have. Asian countries have them and Australia is getting at least one - although we export masses of LNG the population centres are thousands of kilometres away from the main production areas. Okay so a few shiploads may not do all that much but it'll help. As for the winters, its also my understanding that several winters in Europe and North America in the past decade or so have been arctic, where those arctic conditions have been blamed on global warming. Gas still needed. 

 Look at US export capacity. The  need is for  older than  ten years ships to match old terminals . The pandemic has motivated ship owners to scrap  ships 15+ years early.

This clown is a scare monger  that if you followed his seasonal forecast for the last 10 years you would be broke.  Shuffle of four Aframax LNG tankers to the Med to pick up new production off Cypress basin would replace both Nord Stream Lines and never leave the Med. You push Algeria Libya and Angola  to Spain France and Italy  reversing pipeline flows.

Except where there are transport bottlenecks, Russia is netting less this winter than last winter.  With t eh new terminal in Poland and Latvia, Baltic supplies can all come for the US,  Qatar is discounting  which is far more important than Russia asking for more.  Adam Smith's Invisible Hand works.

[nsdp + 449]

On 8/18/2021 at 7:34 PM, markslawson said:

Okay - I stand corrected. Thanks for that. And we're all agreed on LNG. Hopefully the international market for the fuel will continue to develop.

This is a 2018 publication so it  is missing completions in the last 2 1/2 years.

Reading the fine print "4 KING & SPALDINGCONTINUED: OVERVIEW* Turkey is not an EU member state and therefore its 4 LNG import terminals are not included in this list." Spain is missing Barcelona.

Edited August 21, 2021 by nsdp
Add Batcelona

[nsdp + 449]

On 8/20/2021 at 1:51 AM, QuarterCenturyVet said:

What's the title of the article, goof boy. 

Yeah. Maybe read a little.

Also, "freezing in the dark" is a reference to a Peter Lougheed quote about Pierre Trudeau's National Energy Policy that sought to nationalize the entire O&G industry in the 80s and damn near bankrupted the western provinces. Our interest rates were almost 30%. 

My education, memory, and IQ would smash your feeble mind.  corporations took place

I believe  that two engineers at Mitchell Energy copyrighted and trademarked  "freez---- dark in January 1977. As for a nation corporation buying spree, you re thinking of Mr. Brian "Brul"roney "His tenure as prime minister was marked by the introduction of major economic reforms, such as the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement and the Goods and Services Tax. Mulroney's government also privatized 23 of 61 Crown corporations including Air Canada and Petro Canada, as well as the storied Connaught Laboratories,  I was working for Amoco when we sold our our Canadian ASSETS not so voluntarily. " His tenure as prime minister was marked by the introduction of major economic reforms, such as the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement and the Goods and Services Tax. Mulroney's government also privatized (flipped) 23 of 61 Crown corporations including Air Canada and Petro Canada, as well as the storied Connaught Laboratories, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Mulroneya

I have couple of tons o f Chocolaty Exlax  that you can use to make it where you can see all of the road through your navel. not just one lane,

You would have a terrible time with the witness  oath in US court whereere you have to"tell the whole truth nothing but the truth"

Edited August 23, 2021 by nsdp
bad grammar

[QuarterCenturyVet + 312]

On 8/23/2021 at 1:54 PM, nsdp said:

I believe  that two engineers at Mitchell Energy copyrighted and trademarked  "freez---- dark in January 1977. As for a nation corporation buying spree, you re thinking of Mr. Brian "Brul"roney "His tenure as prime minister was marked by the introduction of major economic reforms, such as the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement and the Goods and Services Tax. Mulroney's government also privatized 23 of 61 Crown corporations including Air Canada and Petro Canada, as well as the storied Connaught Laboratories,  I was working for Amoco when we sold our our Canadian ASSETS not so voluntarily. " His tenure as prime minister was marked by the introduction of major economic reforms, such as the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement and the Goods and Services Tax. Mulroney's government also privatized (flipped) 23 of 61 Crown corporations including Air Canada and Petro Canada, as well as the storied Connaught Laboratories, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Mulroneya

I have couple of tons o f Chocolaty Exlax  that you can use to make it where you can see all of the road through your navel. not just one lane,

You would have a terrible time with the witness  oath in US court whereere you have to"tell the whole truth nothing but the truth"

Read up. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Energy_Program#:~:text=According to Mary Elizabeth Vicente,a mile than buy gas

I dont care about when you worked for Amoco. Privatization was able to give new life to the O&G industry in Northern BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and NFLD. 

"Let the eastern bastards freeze in the dark" is the same sentiment a lot of us still have. 

I was only 5 in '84 and I knew what jingle mail was. 

[dukeNukem + 80]

On 8/21/2021 at 3:33 AM, ronwagn said:

Meanwhile Russia is asking higher prices for its natural gas blaming natural gas shortages. Be careful who you trust for your heat and power. Europe must depend on all world suppliers and get the best prices. 

What world suppliers and the best prices are you talking about? Where is US LNG and why it could not come to Europe in reasonable amount?

 

There is a problem with simple logic - more capacity (via NS2) is bad, because dependance on Russia + higher gas prices. But less capacity (without NS2) is good, because more world suppliers with best prices will come (According to this logic now Europe see "best" prices)... Can you please explain me how to undestand it?  

 

Personally, I see NS 2 just as an additional option....European customers will decide where to buy, pipeline gas or LNG. Or pipeline+LNG..Is it called Free Market?  If Russia will try to use it as political tool, then Europe can buy LNG. There are plenty re-gas capacity available.

[nsdp + 449]

6 hours ago, dukeNukem said:

What world suppliers and the best prices are you talking about? Where is US LNG and why it could not come to Europe in reasonable amount?

 

There is a problem with simple logic - more capacity (via NS2) is bad, because dependance on Russia + higher gas prices. But less capacity (without NS2) is good, because more world suppliers with best prices will come (According to this logic now Europe see "best" prices)... Can you please explain me how to undestand it?  

 

Personally, I see NS 2 just as an additional option....European customers will decide where to buy, pipeline gas or LNG. Or pipeline+LNG..Is it called Free Market?  If Russia will try to use it as political tool, then Europe can buy LNG. There are plenty re-gas capacity available.

 

6 hours ago, QuarterCenturyVet said:

Read up. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Energy_Program#:~:text=According to Mary Elizabeth Vicente,a mile than buy gas

I dont care about when you worked for Amoco. Privatization was able to give new life to the O&G industry in Northern BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and NFLD. 

"Let the eastern bastards freeze in the dark" is the same sentiment a lot of us still have. 

I was only 5 in '84 and I knew what jingle mail was. 

In other words , you were in short pants  and could only parrot what  the loudmouths around you said. It had to wait for the likes of Shell Exxxon and ConocoPhillips to return to revive Canadian investment.   I think you should read  the statistics  and see how long it took Canadian oil to recover from Mr. Bullroney. 

[nsdp + 449]

6 hours ago, dukeNukem said:

What world suppliers and the best prices are you talking about? Where is US LNG and why it could not come to Europe in reasonable amount?

 

There is a problem with simple logic - more capacity (via NS2) is bad, because dependance on Russia + higher gas prices. But less capacity (without NS2) is good, because more world suppliers with best prices will come (According to this logic now Europe see "best" prices)... Can you please explain me how to undestand it?  

 

Personally, I see NS 2 just as an additional option....European customers will decide where to buy, pipeline gas or LNG. Or pipeline+LNG..Is it called Free Market?  If Russia will try to use it as political tool, then Europe can buy LNG. There are plenty re-gas capacity available.

You obviously never read the NS1 contracts.  They are what we used to call "Take or Pay' That means NS1 customers MUST BUY  from NS whether they need the gas or not.  You would do well to read this  article from the Tulsa Law Journal. "The Take-or-Pay Wars: A Cautionary Analysis for the Future  https://digitalcommons.law.utulsa.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1930&context=tlr 

I tried  two cases (first like that for Valero Transmission so I am more familiar with these clauses and I don't have your rosy willful blindness to the consequences.  There is no freedom to buy third party gas if it is cheaper.  In the meantime you are helping Comrade Putin replace his worn out military equipment and shoot down civilian airliners  I salute you, Neville Chamberlain.   I owe Mr. Chamberlain an apology, the UK and France did cut off the  foreign currency Hitler needed to buy oil for the Wehrmacht.

[dukeNukem + 80]

3 hours ago, nsdp said:

You obviously never read the NS1 contracts.  They are what we used to call "Take or Pay' That means NS1 customers MUST BUY  from NS whether they need the gas or not.  You would do well to read this  article from the Tulsa Law Journal. "The Take-or-Pay Wars: A Cautionary Analysis for the Future  https://digitalcommons.law.utulsa.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1930&context=tlr 

I tried  two cases (first like that for Valero Transmission so I am more familiar with these clauses and I don't have your rosy willful blindness to the consequences.  There is no freedom to buy third party gas if it is cheaper.  In the meantime you are helping Comrade Putin replace his worn out military equipment and shoot down civilian airliners  I salute you, Neville Chamberlain.   I owe Mr. Chamberlain an apology, the UK and France did cut off the  foreign currency Hitler needed to buy oil for the Wehrmacht.

You obviously never heard about European Third Energy Package... I was asking about NS2, not about NS1. Old gas contracts are based on so-called Groningen model (long term contracts). Less than 20% of Gazprom portfolio is long term contracts based on oil indexation. However few years ago it was more than 50%...

I know what Take Or Pay contract means...BTW, most of the LNG contracts worldwide still based on this model with oil indexation 

  

[QuarterCenturyVet + 312]

12 hours ago, nsdp said:

 

In other words , you were in short pants  and could only parrot what  the loudmouths around you said. It had to wait for the likes of Shell Exxxon and ConocoPhillips to return to revive Canadian investment.   I think you should read  the statistics  and see how long it took Canadian oil to recover from Mr. Bullroney. 

Do you even understand the difference between nationalization and privatization? 

No wonder it took another decade for investment to return after the Trudeau Sr. NEP. You can't run investor confidence into the ground and expect serious players to return without assuring stability. I think you lost the plot.