Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN September 13, 2021 In case you haven't noticed, on Monday September 13th, Natural Gas prices shot up AGAIN! Up about 6% depending upon the timestamp. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas High Natural Gas Prices Today Will Send U.S. Production Soaring Next Year By Irina Slav - Sep 13, 2021, 11:00 AM CDT https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/High-Natural-Gas-Prices-Today-Will-Send-US-Production-Soaring-Next-Year.html Natural gas production is set for a significant increase over the next year thanks to the current imbalance between demand and supply, which has pushed prices to record highs, Reuters’ John Kemp reports, citing energy traders. Meanwhile, however, gas supply for this winter season will be tight, Kemp also said, adding that as a result and in anticipation of next year’s supply recovery, Henry Hub futures had swung into a backwardation, with contracts for delivery in January 2023 round $1.15 per mmBtu lower than contracts for delivery next January. Current Henry Hub prices are around $5 per mmBtu, which is double the price from a year ago, according to the Wall Street Journal. Natural Gas Prices At Record Highs The Journal’s Jinjoo Lee noted in a recent report that natural gas could “really use an OPEC-style, coordinated production ramp-up right now.” While U.S. natural gas prices were double those a year ago, the increase in Asia and Europe was even larger, at four times for Asia and five times for Europe, which is already suffering the consequences of gas shortages, with electricity prices spiking, prompting protests in parts of the EU. It is this tightness of supply that will be one of the biggest motivators for higher U.S. gas production next year, although, per Kemp, the ramp-up in production has already started, with the active rig count topping 100 as of early September and average daily output at 79 billion cu m. Over the last year, gas producers have boosted production by 1.4 billion cu ft, Canary LLC CEO Dan Eberhart reported for Forbes, and the EIA expects the average daily production for the second half of the year will be 92.9 billion cu ft, up from 91.4 billion cu ft during the first half. Exports are also set to rise next year, from 14 billion cu ft this year to 19 billion cu ft in 2022, including pipeline and LNG exports. By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com Irina Slav Irina is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing on the oil and gas industry. 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turbguy + 1,398 September 13, 2021 Yup. Nat gas ain't going away soon. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN September 14, 2021 Natural Gas Prices Can Still Double From Here By Alex Kimani - Sep 13, 2021, 4:00 PM CDT https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Natural-Gas-Prices-Can-Still-Double-From-Here.html Natural gas prices have hit their highest levels since 2014, outpacing oil and many other commodities. On Monday, natural gas futures were trading up 2.6% to $5.09 per million British thermal units (BTUs), their highest settlement price since February 2014. Natural gas prices are up 117.6% in the year-to-date, while the biggest nat. gas benchmark, the United States Natural Gas ETF, LP (NYSEARCA:UNG) is up 88.6% over the timeframe. The sticker shock is even greater in other key natural gas markets around the globe, with East Asian benchmark futures and European natural gas spot prices have climbed 4-5 times year-ago levels to $18 per MMBtu. Yet, some experts are now saying that this rally is far from over. Stan Brownell, an analyst at Argus Media, and Luke Jackson, an analyst at S&P Global Platts, figure that Henry Hub prices would have to jump to $10 or more to provide an incentive to fulfill domestic natural gas demand. That would mean a doubling of natural gas prices from current levels to levels last seen in 2008 when the U.S. produced about 40% less natural gas Natural Gas (Henry Hub) USD/MMBtu Source: Business Insider International natural gas demand is booming An unusually cold winter in Europe as well as a global rebound from Covid-19 have triggered strong demand and depleted natural gas inventories. Meanwhile, Hurricane Ida has knocked out a considerable amount of gas production, with 77% of oil and gas production still offline in the Gulf of Mexico. According to U.S. government statistics, natural gas inventories are currently 17% lower compared to a year ago and 7.4% below the five-year average. Related: Two Ways To Play The 107% Rally In Natural Gas To catch up to the five-year average storage level by early winter, U.S. natural gas producers need to inject roughly 90.4 billion cubic feet each week from now, about 40% higher than the five-year average weekly buildup clip. The latest data by the Energy Information Administration shows that nat. Gas inventories climbed 52 bcf last week, way below what is required to build enough stockpiles for the winter. Interestingly, the analysts note that U.S. consumption isn't really the driving force behind the strong price action. Indeed, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, domestic natural-gas consumption through June was in line with 2020 levels. The real culprit here is robust international demand for natural gas as well as a fast-growing U.S. LNG sector. In the first half of the year, the U.S. exported roughly 10% of its natural gas, or 41% more than a year ago. Normally, excess natural gas produced during the summer would go into underground storage. But that domestic stockpiling has been lower than normal, with producers exporting much of it as LNG. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Asia and Europe still need to stock up more to prepare for the winter, and much of their supplies will have to come from the U.S. because non-U.S. LNG exporters have mostly been down with maintenance-related snags. For instance, Russia, Europe's most important natural-gas provider, has been slowing its deliveries. Natural gas inventories in Europe are currently a whopping 16% below the five-year average and at a record low for September. Meanwhile, continuous unplanned outages at LNG export facilities in several countries, including Australia, Malaysia, Nigeria, Algeria, Norway, and Trinidad and Tobago, have contributed to increased demand for U.S. LNG. Europe's natural gas spot prices have historically been lower than prices in Asia; however, this year, Europe's natural gas prices are tracking Asia's spot LNG prices more closely to attract flexible LNG supplies from around the world to refill storage inventories. A severe winter in the U.S. could lead to domestic markets having to compete with hungry Asian and European buyers, thus driving prices even higher. The U.S. Henry Hub natural gas benchmark and U.S. LNG spot market prices have been lower than prices for international natural gas and spot LNG this year. This price difference has supported record volumes of U.S. LNG exports. U.S. LNG exports also increased because of new export capacity added in 2020. The final liquefaction units were commissioned at Freeport, Cameron, and Corpus Christi LNG, and the remaining small-scale units were placed in service at Elba Island LNG. The new units increased total U.S. LNG export capacity by a combined 2.7 Bcf/d for a total peak capacity of 10.8 Bcf/d. Similar to 2020, Asia remains the top destination for U.S. LNG exports, accounting for 46% of the total exports during the first half of the year. Asia was followed by Europe, which had a six-month average share of 37%. Exports to Latin America also increased, particularly to Brazil, which is experiencing its worst drought in more than 90 years. A severe winter in the U.S. could easily lead to an even crazier surge in natural gas prices. By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nsdp + 449 eh September 15, 2021 10 hours ago, Tom Nolan said: Natural Gas Prices Can Still Double From Here By Alex Kimani - Sep 13, 2021, 4:00 PM CDT https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Natural-Gas-Prices-Can-Still-Double-From-Here.html Natural gas prices have hit their highest levels since 2014, outpacing oil and many other commodities. On Monday, natural gas futures were trading up 2.6% to $5.09 per million British thermal units (BTUs), their highest settlement price since February 2014. Natural gas prices are up 117.6% in the year-to-date, while the biggest nat. gas benchmark, the United States Natural Gas ETF, LP (NYSEARCA:UNG) is up 88.6% over the timeframe. The sticker shock is even greater in other key natural gas markets around the globe, with East Asian benchmark futures and European natural gas spot prices have climbed 4-5 times year-ago levels to $18 per MMBtu. Yet, some experts are now saying that this rally is far from over. Stan Brownell, an analyst at Argus Media, and Luke Jackson, an analyst at S&P Global Platts, figure that Henry Hub prices would have to jump to $10 or more to provide an incentive to fulfill domestic natural gas demand. That would mean a doubling of natural gas prices from current levels to levels last seen in 2008 when the U.S. produced about 40% less natural gas Natural Gas (Henry Hub) USD/MMBtu Source: Business Insider International natural gas demand is booming An unusually cold winter in Europe as well as a global rebound from Covid-19 have triggered strong demand and depleted natural gas inventories. Meanwhile, Hurricane Ida has knocked out a considerable amount of gas production, with 77% of oil and gas production still offline in the Gulf of Mexico. According to U.S. government statistics, natural gas inventories are currently 17% lower compared to a year ago and 7.4% below the five-year average. Related: Two Ways To Play The 107% Rally In Natural Gas To catch up to the five-year average storage level by early winter, U.S. natural gas producers need to inject roughly 90.4 billion cubic feet each week from now, about 40% higher than the five-year average weekly buildup clip. The latest data by the Energy Information Administration shows that nat. Gas inventories climbed 52 bcf last week, way below what is required to build enough stockpiles for the winter. Interestingly, the analysts note that U.S. consumption isn't really the driving force behind the strong price action. Indeed, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, domestic natural-gas consumption through June was in line with 2020 levels. The real culprit here is robust international demand for natural gas as well as a fast-growing U.S. LNG sector. In the first half of the year, the U.S. exported roughly 10% of its natural gas, or 41% more than a year ago. Normally, excess natural gas produced during the summer would go into underground storage. But that domestic stockpiling has been lower than normal, with producers exporting much of it as LNG. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Asia and Europe still need to stock up more to prepare for the winter, and much of their supplies will have to come from the U.S. because non-U.S. LNG exporters have mostly been down with maintenance-related snags. For instance, Russia, Europe's most important natural-gas provider, has been slowing its deliveries. Natural gas inventories in Europe are currently a whopping 16% below the five-year average and at a record low for September. Meanwhile, continuous unplanned outages at LNG export facilities in several countries, including Australia, Malaysia, Nigeria, Algeria, Norway, and Trinidad and Tobago, have contributed to increased demand for U.S. LNG. Europe's natural gas spot prices have historically been lower than prices in Asia; however, this year, Europe's natural gas prices are tracking Asia's spot LNG prices more closely to attract flexible LNG supplies from around the world to refill storage inventories. A severe winter in the U.S. could lead to domestic markets having to compete with hungry Asian and European buyers, thus driving prices even higher. The U.S. Henry Hub natural gas benchmark and U.S. LNG spot market prices have been lower than prices for international natural gas and spot LNG this year. This price difference has supported record volumes of U.S. LNG exports. U.S. LNG exports also increased because of new export capacity added in 2020. The final liquefaction units were commissioned at Freeport, Cameron, and Corpus Christi LNG, and the remaining small-scale units were placed in service at Elba Island LNG. The new units increased total U.S. LNG export capacity by a combined 2.7 Bcf/d for a total peak capacity of 10.8 Bcf/d. Similar to 2020, Asia remains the top destination for U.S. LNG exports, accounting for 46% of the total exports during the first half of the year. Asia was followed by Europe, which had a six-month average share of 37%. Exports to Latin America also increased, particularly to Brazil, which is experiencing its worst drought in more than 90 years. A severe winter in the U.S. could easily lead to an even crazier surge in natural gas prices. By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com took gs " Lest you forget, as long as you have speculators in the market , it can go down as fast as it goes up. The guys with propellers on their beanies took gas prices from $2.07 to -$4.78 at Waha in 24 hours https://www.ft.com/content/a5292644-958d-4065-92e8-ace55d766654 in April 2020. As George Mitchel said there is no cure for high NG prices as efficient as high prices," Pipeline capacity constraints, weather(Lower temps took off more thermal load in Texas plus LNG terminals for 3 weeks fro Freeport to Lake Charles), Tennessee reversed flow on line 200 to North to South and shut in receipts from the Trans Texas parallel 36" line from Waha to Carthage."Currently, 44% of U.S. Gulf crude production is offline, while 52% of the region's gas output is down. This has put a bid under natgas and crude prices. " They forget that the cloud cover has cut average daily temps by 8-12 degrees cutting 15,000 mw of NG fired generation and higher than normal wind speeds across the wind belt (high pressure brings up wind power as it flows from high pressure to low pressure) cuts an additional +/- 3,000 mw. That leaves AC loads 18,000 mw short normal(20 BCF and that doesn't count markets out side Texas). Add about 3000 extra mw for wind and ERCOT is 30% below normal powerplant usage. PURPA says you have to turn off gas, oil and coal plants before curtailing wind and solar. My thermostat shows no AC use since 9:45 pm yesterday. Bad news for electric. Pipelines can only handle so much increase in line pack. Once Nicholas is gone it will take about 20 days to restart the LNG trains for exports. The down swing on the pendulum will be a lot tougher than the up tick we see today, 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN September 15, 2021 1 hour ago, nsdp said: Once Nicholas is gone it will take about 20 days to restart the LNG trains for exports. The down swing on the pendulum will be a lot tougher than the up tick we see today, I agree. I am now short NatGas. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN September 15, 2021 Wednesday morning September 15th NatGas has climbed 6% to 5.65 https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN September 15, 2021 Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Supported by Specs Betting on Less Adquate Storage Levels Bespoke is pointing out strong gains in Henry Hub futures which coincide with rallying prices overseas and storage adequacy concerns. James Hyerczyk https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-price-fundamental-daily-forecast-supported-by-specs-betting-on-less-adquate-storage-levels-776891 Natural gas futures are trading sharply higher for a third straight session this week as supply worries continue to drive strong demand in anticipation of inadequate inventory levels as we get closer to the start of the winter heating season. At 13:46 GMT, December natural gas futures are trading $5.620, up $0.222 or +4.11%. Bespoke Weather Sees Significant Running Room for Liquefied Natural Gas Bespoke Weather Services is pointing out strong gains in Henry Hub futures which coincide with rallying prices overseas and storage adequacy concerns both at home and abroad, Natural Gas Intelligence reported. “Natural gas prices are (surprise, surprise) up sharply this morning seemingly piggybacking off European prices, which have been up more than 10% so far today,” Bespoke told clients in a note early Wednesday. “…It is all fear in the market, owning to storage levels that are viewed as less than sufficient in the event of a cold winter, not just here in the U.S., but even more so over in Europe. “It makes it very difficult to say when this rally could end, or how high we can go, as we have tons more upside potential if the market begins to worry more about the possibility of having to price out LNG this winter.” Wood Mackenzie Sees Some Tropical Storm Nicholas Impact on LNG Export Operations Natural Gas Intelligence reported that according to Wood Mackenzie, Tropical Storm Nicholas appears to have had at least some impact on LNG export operations. On Tuesday, the firm notified clients when it observed evidence that all three trains at the Freeport LNG facility had turned off. “Power outages are the most likely culprit,” Wood Mackenzie analyst Kara Ozgen said, noting that the local power outage rate near the Freeport terminal “reached 75% yesterday morning. Also supporting this idea was Centerpoint Energy’s outage map, which showed that there were power outages in the same area where Freeport LNG is situated.” Short-Term Outlook Thursday’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly storage report “will begin the string of more robust shoulder season injections,” Energy Aspects said in a note to clients. However, this is not likely to stop the rally because speculators are focused on an even longer-term picture that carries into at least the start of the winter heating system. Ahead of the EIA report, Energy Aspects are estimating a 74 Bcf build for the week-ended September 10. For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Early Look at This Week’s US Energy Information Administration Weekly Storage Report Total stocks now stand at 2.923 trillion cubic feet (TCF), down 592 Bcf from a year ago and 235 Bcf below the five-year average, the government said. For the EIA’s next print, scheduled for release Thursday, analysts are looking for a larger build. NGI estimated a 72 Bcf increase for the week ended September 10. Bespoke preliminarily estimated an injection of 79 Bcf. The five-year average for this time of year is an increase of 79 Bcf, and for the comparable week a year earlier, EIA reported a build of 86 Bcf. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN September 15, 2021 September 14th Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Continue Parabolic Run The natural gas markets have rallied again during the trading session on Tuesday as we continue the overall parabolic run. Christopher Lewis https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-price-forecast-natural-gas-markets-continue-parabolic-run-776434 Natural gas markets have rallied again during the trading session on Tuesday as we continue this massive parabolic run. That being said, it is difficult to chase a train like this, because quite frankly this has been over the top. Now that we are well above the $5.25 level, where we go next as far as the upside is concerned it is more or less a gas, with $5.50 being the most likely of candidates. That being said, we have gone so parabolic that sooner or later we are going to get a nasty selloff that could be very dangerous for your account. Unless you are already long at this point, it is going to be difficult to get involved. If you are already long of this market, then you have to look at the area just below the $5.00 level as potential massive support. If we were to break down below the $4.85 level, then I think we probably have something more nefarious at hand. Nonetheless, buying on the dips is about the only thing you can do if you want to be involved. I certainly would not be a seller of this market, because we continue to see one reason after another for the market to go higher. The most recent reason for natural gas prices going higher has been the tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico which could shut down refining capacity temporarily in a market that is already struggling for some type of normalcy. The market will continue to see a lot of bullish pressure in the short term, but when this ends, it could be rather negative. At this point though, we are showing no signs of that. VIDEO - One minute - Graph Technicals https://youtu.be/6gXbPqzp6pU <iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/6gXbPqzp6pU" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe> Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KeyboardWarrior + 527 September 15, 2021 Shorting time. I don't usually mess with futures but I can't imagine NatGas climbing higher than $7.00. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nsdp + 449 eh September 16, 2021 (edited) Wood Mackenzie Sees Some Tropical Storm Nicholas Impact on LNG Export Operations Natural Gas Intelligence reported that according to Wood Mackenzie, Tropical Storm Nicholas appears to have had at least some impact on LNG export operations. On Tuesday, the firm notified clients when it observed evidence that all three trains at the Freeport LNG facility had turned off. “Power outages are the most likely culprit,” Wood Mackenzie analyst Kara Ozgen said, noting that the local power outage rate near the Freeport terminal “reached 75% yesterday morning. Also supporting this idea was Centerpoint Energy’s outage map, which showed that there were power outages in the same area where Freeport LNG is situated.” f This is an excellent example of how many commentators are not qualified to talk about what they discuss, INFORMATION ON TRANSMISSION LINES HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM PUBLIC ACCESS SINCE 1/2010. Information on line is only available through OATI for general public use https://www.nerc.oati.com/NERC/sys-login.wml Kara Ozgen can see DISTRIBUTION line outages only through Centerpoint. She is not listed as an authorized OATI user so she cannot see what is happening on the transmission grid; she has no access to realtime power flows at the Freeport .LNG substation. One transmission 345kv line(A line) from STNP to Oyster Creek is out. But all three other lines: STNP Oyster Creek B-line and both A and B lines from Manvel to Oyster Creek are operational. The only 138 Kv line out is one side of the 138 kv feeders to Danbury and the motorized switch is open so Danbury has single line feed from Alvin. That leaves 6 138 kv lines to feed OysterCreek, Dow, Badische, Freeport LNG and Seaway Pipeline and the distribution substations for Clute, Freeport, Jones Creek, Lake Jackson and TNP at Angleton and Brazoria. Edited September 16, 2021 by nsdp forgot one substation. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN September 16, 2021 How Long Can U.S. Shale Producers Resist The Oil Price Rally? By Irina Slav - Sep 15, 2021, 7:00 PM CDT https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-Long-Can-US-Shale-Producers-Resist-The-Oil-Price-Rally.html It would have been unthinkable a few months ago: ramping up production was the last thing U.S. shale drillers would do amid a hesitant price recovery and heavy uncertainty around demand recovery. In these few months, however, a lot has changed. Now, U.S. shale drillers may be ready to get back to drilling. The current situation in U.S. oil is one that shale companies must have dreamed about during the worst of the crisis. Inventories are down considerably, thanks to recovering demand. But they are also down due to the recent shut-ins of offshore production thanks to Hurricane Ida. On top of that, the shale industry's own inventory of drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) is also down considerably, Reuters has reported, citing analysts and industry insiders. This means that soon, we could see a more sizeable increase in the U.S. rig count as shale producers seek to avert a decline in production. It also means that shale companies might see some renewed investor criticism because drilling more would require higher spending, and investors have been extra-sensitive towards spending recently. They could hardly be blamed for this sensitivity. Investors in the shale oil industry have endured years of low returns while the companies they invested in poured everything into pumping as much oil as they possibly could. This all came to an end not once but twice, the second time in a more painful way as the pandemic turned what would have otherwise been a regular oversupply crisis into the mother of all oversupply crises, plunging the U.S. oil benchmark below zero for the first time ever. After the worst was over, oil companies began redirecting what cash they had towards dividends to keep investors happy. They also became a lot more disciplined with their money in the face of an uncertain future. However, shale oil production is an intensive process: wells are quick to start producing but also quick to deplete, which means drilling is more frequent than it is in conventional oil production, hence the new development. For months, shale oil companies drew on their DUC inventory, which was high enough to keep spending within strict limits, Reuters notes in its report. But now, this inventory is down to below 6,000 as of July, from some 8,900 in 2019, and drilling needs to start again. Putting DUCs into operation costs about 60 percent of what it costs to drill a whole new well. Fortunately, oil is trading high enough to soften the blow to investors who are likely to be suspicious about any news regarding higher spending. Another thing that could soften this potential blow is the fact that U.S. shale drillers are actually generating quite a lot of cash, according to industry veteran David Messler. In a recent article for Oilprice, Messler wrote that many shale companies are enjoying cash generation that significantly exceeds their dividend needs. This would put these companies in a comfortable position concerning the need for a production boost. As long as new well drilling does not require taking money away from investors, everyone should be happy. There have been more efficiency gains, too, and this is another plus for shale companies looking to both ramp up production and keep their investors satisfied. As Argus reported at the end of August, citing the CFO of Diamondback Energy, some shale companies now need fewer rigs and smaller crews to drill the same number of wells. The report also cited gains in well productivity, citing EIA data that showed new well production exceeded the rate of depletion in legacy wells. Related: Exxon Makes 20th Significant Crude Discovery Off Guyana U.S. crude oil production over the past four weeks has averaged a little over 11 million bpd, according to the latest weekly petroleum report of the Energy Information Administration. This compares with 10.3 million bpd a year ago. Output is growing and, according to the International Energy Agency, is set for stronger growth next year, too, with U.S. shale accounting for some 60 percent of total non-OPEC production growth next year. Now, this could have an undesirable—for the industry—impact on prices and likely will. According to the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, "As we enter 2022, the US shale response becomes a major source of uncertainty amid an uneven recovery across shale plays and players alike. As in previous cycles, US shale will remain a key factor shaping market outcomes." On the other hand, U.S. shale has proved it can be flexible, and in case of further resurgences of the coronavirus or other demand-hurting events, it could respond pretty quickly. Shale companies also appear to be quite comfortable with the current price levels, and with investors still sensitive, they are unlikely to jeopardize their new cash-generating abilities by boosting production excessively. It seems the times of pumping as much as possible because you can could be over for good. By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN September 16, 2021 Two More UK Energy Firms Go Bust Amid Record Power Prices https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Two-More-UK-Energy-Firms-Go-Bust-Amid-Record-Power-Prices.html Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN September 16, 2021 Major UK Fertilizer Plants Shuttered Due To Skyrocketing Natural Gas Prices https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/major-uk-fertilizer-plants-shuttered-due-skyrocketing-natural-gas-prices Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
taamvan + 19 JB September 16, 2021 As much as I'd like to see NG at some higher, stable price, no one in the industry predicted anything much over $3-3.5 until 2023 and that's more likely the realized price for most of the gas anyways. This spike is a confluence of factors: Ida shutting production temporarily Gasprom reducing output in anticipation of Nordstream 2 coming online to ensure it opens without further fuss Continuing strong US demand from traditional sources of demand like industrial and switching and places like CA that are only building NG capacity. And new demand coming on line like LNG, picking up the rest of the slack. In theory this should also provide upward pressure on coal and oil as it becomes more economical vs gas. I don't really buy the shale discipline argument--they are pumping tons of gas, depletion is not as big an issue as its being made out to be--we are at peak supply and there is plenty more where that came from, just not @ $3. I think the main reason they arent pumping all out is political and sentimental--they have finally realized their behavior is provoking KSA into irrational behavior and need to signal that they have "discipline". So I'm on the fence about selling the COG rally and missing the merger dividend, will probably do in my non-tax accounts. COG is case in point because they are continuing to ramp up production in the face of generally low prices. Right now, they dont have any excess revenues to pay out anyway, and their merger is unpopular, which is why it went below $15. KMI has performed miserably on the basis of its very poor revenue outlook vis contract rolloff so its not participating in this either. That just highlights that any given gas company isn't going to be the short term beneficiary of this, and won't perform well if prices renormalize. All of these factors have to combine to spike prices. I'm also pretty sure this winter we are going to have further debacles in various midwestern state markets where prices skyrocket briefly but that is more about the retail price and short term availability of gas, not the wholesale price and the beneficiaries are the utilities, not the streamers or producers. That may indeed conspire to spike prices again in Nov-Jan, but once spring comes, what's the catalyst? There is plenty of gas, so once the Russians get their point across, and cool autumn comes and the windows open up, unfortunately I see gas back at $3.50, Oil $60. Any random event could cause it to spike--but with both oil and gas there is simply so much available supply and more on the table that until all the factors combine together (russian power plays plus high consumption and demand PLUS LNG exports en mass) its not going to stay high. And those factors are predicted to be present in 2030, not 2022. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN September 17, 2021 Europe’s Energy Crisis Is Driving Up Natural Gas Prices Worldwide By Tsvetana Paraskova - Sep 16, 2021, 7:00 PM CDT Natural gas prices all over the world are surging amid a perfect storm of tight regional gas markets and soaring power prices in Europe. The natural gas rally isn’t over yet—and it has further room to hit fresh record highs, especially if the coming winter turns out to be colder than typical in the northern hemisphere. The natural gas crunch and the sky-is-the-limit rally in electricity prices are most evident in Europe. But the increased interdependence among regional gas markets in the U.S., Asia, and Europe in recent years now means that natural gas price spikes in one region cannot be ignored by the markets in the other regions. As the northern hemisphere prepares for the coming winter, analysts say that weather will be the most important factor for natural gas prices and markets in the next few months. And if it’s colder than usual, Europe will not be the only one to feel a hot rally in energy prices. The gas supply crunch in Europe is “going to put the focus on this commodity that’s been overlooked for the last several years,” John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital, told CNBC this week. A Perfect Storm In Europe Even Before Winter Europe’s tight gas market, low wind speeds, abnormally low gas inventories, and record carbon prices have combined in recent weeks to send benchmark gas prices on the continent and power prices in the largest economies to record highs. Almost daily, gas and power prices in Europe surge to fresh records, putting pressure on governments as consumers protest against soaring power bills ahead of the winter heating season. With just two weeks to go until the end of the injection season, natural gas inventories in Europe are at their lowest level for September in recent memory. This makes the market anxious about a dramatic supply crunch if this winter is anything like last winter, when temperatures were below norms for extended periods of time and a cold snap in the spring depleted stockpiles. Those inventories couldn’t be adequately replenished as demand in Asia has also been strong, while supply in Europe has dropped due to lower deliveries from Russia. During the summer, even with the strong rebound in European natural gas demand and surging prices, Russian giant Gazprom did not book additional entry capacity to Europe via Ukraine. Analysts say that this could have been an opportunistic move from the Russian giant to drive up Europe’s gas prices further and take advantage of the high prices. Other analysts think that Gazprom’s effective reduction in supplies would force Europe to recognize that gas customers on the continent need the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany, which bypasses Ukraine. Kremlin Says Nord Stream 2 Could Come To The Rescue Now that Russia has completed the construction of Nord Stream 2 and awaits a German regulatory nod to start gas flows, the Kremlin says that a quick approval and launch of the pipeline would help tame Europe’s soaring prices. “Obviously, the commissioning of Nord Stream 2 as soon as possible will substantially balance natural gas price parameters in Europe, including on the spot market,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Wednesday. Regardless of whether Gazprom’s lower summer gas deliveries were a power play or the result of unexpected outages, the fact is that they contributed to the current gas shortage in Europe. Europe’s Gas Crunch Drives Up U.S. Prices and LNG Exports In today’s interconnected regional gas markets, record-high prices in Europe drive U.S. benchmark prices up, too. “The U.S. is supposed to be an island, but in the last three or four years, there’s an increasing link between the U.S. and global market,” Francisco Blanch, head of commodities and derivatives strategy at Bank of America, told CNBC. “We’ve gone from 50% correlation to 95% correlation. The U.S. market is being dragged around by this,” said Blanch. In the United States, the Henry Hub price hit on Wednesday its highest in seven and a half years, “seemingly piggybacking off European prices,” Bespoke Weather Services said in a note carried by Natural Gas Intelligence. Related: Chevron CEO: Shareholder Returns Are More Important Than Solar, Wind Investment High demand for gas in Europe and Asia and the high Asian spot LNG prices even in the off-peak season are driving record exports of American LNG. High LNG exports, in turn, tighten domestic U.S. gas supply amid relatively flattish production in recent months and the still shut-in 39 percent of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico gas production as of September 15, more than two weeks after Hurricane Ida forced platform evacuations in the area. U.S. natural gas prices may cool with pleasantly warm early fall weather, analysts say. Yet, the natural gas/LNG supply squeeze globally is setting the stage for record winter prices, Lindsay Schneider at RBN Energy wrote last week. “The incredible bull run for global gas prices has been underpinned by high demand for LNG and the cascading effect of a supply squeeze in Europe, brought on by the triple threat of low domestic production, decreased imports from Russia, and a scarcity of incremental LNG cargoes,” Schneider says. “Not only is this driving record-high gas prices and increased volatility now, but the low inventory means sustained high prices for the heating season ahead,” the energy analyst noted. By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN September 17, 2021 Latest articles from Tsvetana Europe’s Energy Crisis Is Driving Up Natural Gas Prices Worldwide Published 16 September 2021 | viewed 22,668 times Natural gas prices all over the world are surging amid a perfect storm of tight regional gas markets and soaring power prices in Europe. The… China Back To Stockpiling Crude As Refinery Runs Hit 15-Month Low Published 16 September 2021 | viewed 2,467 times China is estimated to have sent around 760,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil to its strategic and commercial reserves in August, as refinery… Saudi Arabia Hikes July Crude Oil Exports To Six-Month High Published 16 September 2021 | viewed 1,775 times Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports rose to above 6 million barrels per day (bpd) in July, to the highest volume in six months, as the… Libya Oil Exports Return To Normal Following Major Protests Published 16 September 2021 | viewed 791 times Crude export operations have returned to normal at two major Libyan oil ports after days of protests and sit-ins that had disrupted loadings, the National… Argentina Attempts To Revive Its Oil Boom Published 16 September 2021 | viewed 1,012 times Argentina’s government has unveiled a bill to promote investment in oil and gas in the country with the ultimate goal to boost hydrocarbon production from… Europe Could Turn To More Coal If Gas Crunch Persists Published 16 September 2021 | viewed 1,650 times Despite its ambitious green energy targets, Europe could be forced to burn more coal this winter if natural gas stockpiles are not adequately replenished amid… Africa’s Largest Bank Stops Funding New Coal Plants Published 15 September 2021 | viewed 2,242 times The largest bank in Africa by market capitalization, FirstRand Limited, will no longer finance new coal-fired power plants, the lender said on Wednesday in its… Russian Oil Exports Under Fire As Iraq Slashes Prices Published 15 September 2021 | viewed 9,832 times The price of Russia’s flagship Urals grade slumped this week as Russian supply and exports are set to grow and as Iraq cuts the price… Nord Stream 2 Comes Just As European Gas Prices Reach 13-Year High Published 15 September 2021 | viewed 3,316 times The sooner Nord Stream 2 is commissioned and launched, the better chance the Russia-led gas pipeline to Germany will have to balance surging gas prices… Can Deep-Sea Mining Solve The Battery Metals Supply Crisis? Published 15 September 2021 | viewed 1,918 times The key metals necessary to advance the global energy transition will likely drive the next commodity supercycle. Soaring demand for lithium, copper, nickel, cobalt, and… Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN September 17, 2021 Latest articles from Irina Slav Saudi Forces Thwart Houthi Attack On Oil City Published 17 September 2021 | viewed 634 times Saudi Arabia has prevented yet another attack by the Yemeni Houthis, this time in the city of Jazan, which is home to extensive Aramco oil… The U.S. Is Set To Break Another Solar Record Despite Rising Costs Published 16 September 2021 | viewed 1,923 times New solar power capacity additions in the United States are on track to book a record year despite supply chain disruptions that have seen price… Chevron CEO: Shareholder Returns Are More Important Than Solar, Wind Investment Published 16 September 2021 | viewed 3,234 times Shareholder returns are more important for Chevron than investing in wind and solar energy, chief executive Mike Wirth told CNBC in an interview. "These [wind… Chevron CEO: Oil Prices To Remain Higher For Longer Published 16 September 2021 | viewed 6,615 times Global oil and gas prices will remain higher for longer as companies resist the urge to ramp up production, the chief executive of Chevron, Mike… How Long Can U.S. Shale Producers Resist The Oil Price Rally? Published 15 September 2021 | viewed 10,171 times It would have been unthinkable a few months ago: ramping up production was the last thing U.S. shale drillers would do amid a hesitant price… Oil Prices Rise Further On Large Crude Inventory Draw Published 15 September 2021 | viewed 8,899 times Crude oil prices went up today on bullish news from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, which reported a 6.4-million-barrel draw in crude oil inventories and… China’s Oil Sale Is A Clear Message To OPEC+ Published 14 September 2021 | viewed 40,229 times China made headlines last week with the news that it was going to release some crude oil from its strategic petroleum reserve and sell it… Texas Oil Industry Braces For Impact As Hurricane Nicholas Makes Landfall Published 14 September 2021 | viewed 1,829 times Tropical storm Nicholas, which was upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane yesterday, made landfall in the early hours of Tuesday in the Matagorda Peninsula, threatening… Europe’s Energy Crisis Worsens As Wind Stops Blowing Published 14 September 2021 | viewed 5,235 times Energy prices in Europe have hit records due to a shortage of natural gas and much lower than expected wind power output, the Wall Street… Is Oil Really Doomed? Published 13 September 2021 | viewed 12,800 times Two recent reports warned that oil and gas production needs to be significantly reduced if the world is to meet the Paris Agreement goals and… High Natural Gas Prices Today Will Send U.S. Production Soaring Next Year Published 13 September 2021 | viewed 9,686 times Natural gas production is set for a significant increase over the next year thanks to the current imbalance between demand and supply, which has pushed… European Oil Majors Could Soon Face An Avalanche Of Lawsuits Published 10 September 2021 | viewed 3,102 times It was only a matter of time, really. Ever since a Dutch court ordered Shell to cut its carbon emissions by 45 percent by 2030,… Doomed U.S. Nuclear Power Plants May Get Financial Reprieve Published 10 September 2021 | viewed 1,532 times The Illinois House has passed a bill envisaging some $700 million in incentives for two nuclear power plants operated by Exelon that the company earlier… Gas Prices Are Exploding But North Sea Drillers Struggle To Profit Published 09 September 2021 | viewed 3,333 times Natural gas producers in the North Sea are in a rush to increase production as a supply squeeze lifted gas prices in the UK and… Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN September 17, 2021 Latest articles from Alex Kimani Toyota’s Big Bet On Solid State Batteries Could Boost The Entire Sector Published 15 September 2021 | viewed 12,124 times With the global electrification drive in full swing, electric cars have constantly been improving in terms of mileage, performance, charging time--and costs. And, Wright's law… China’s Electric Vehicle Market Is Growing Too Big Too Fast Published 14 September 2021 | viewed 3,682 times About a month ago, President Joe Biden took a big step toward his goal of slashing greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2030 by issuing… Natural Gas Prices Can Still Double From Here Published 13 September 2021 | viewed 8,997 times Natural gas prices have hit their highest levels since 2014, outpacing oil and many other commodities. On Monday, natural gas futures were trading up 2.6%… Two Ways To Play The 107% Rally In Natural Gas Published 12 September 2021 | viewed 15,068 times The oil sector has lately been hogging the limelight after a spectacular recovery that has set the sector as one of the top performers in… The Top Two Commodities To Watch In The Short Term Published 11 September 2021 | viewed 7,826 times Commodities, and base metal, in particular, closed last week on a strong note, shrugging off China’s weaker-than-expected PMI reading. A softer U.S. Dollar provided support,… 3 Bearish Catalysts For Oil This Fall Published 09 September 2021 | viewed 8,570 times Last week, oil prices enjoyed a nice rally OPEC+ agreed to keep its current production agreement in place, maintaining the 400K bbl/day hike scheduled for… A 150-Year Old Idea Could Lead To A Breakthrough In Space Travel Published 06 September 2021 | viewed 34,771 times The increasing frequency of both natural and man-made catastrophes such as worldwide pandemics and climate catastrophes has re-validated the urgency to establish humanity as a… 3 Bullish Catalysts For Oil This Fall Published 05 September 2021 | viewed 24,059 times After a dreary stretch that saw oil markets record the worst monthly loss this year, the markets have kicked off trading in September on a… China Is Hoarding Crude Again, And That’s Great News For Oil Prices Published 02 September 2021 | viewed 14,233 times After recording the worst monthly loss this year in August, the oil markets have kicked off trading in September on a much brighter note on… Biden Could Give Rare Earth Miners A Major Boost Published 02 September 2021 | viewed 2,700 times A global shortage in semiconductor chips has been wreaking havoc on diverse sectors, including the tech, automotive, consumer electronics industries, and everything in between. After… 3 Distinct Futures For The Oil Industry Published 31 August 2021 | viewed 9,271 times As the global economy emerges from the pandemic and commodity prices continue on a recovery path, it's becoming increasingly evident that the oil and gas… Carbon Capture Could Dramatically Improve The LNG Outlook Published 28 August 2021 | viewed 6,991 times Climate change is no longer a fiery apocalypse that we expect to happen in the far off future. Rising sea levels, wild-fires, heat waves and… Which U.S. States Are Most Dependent On Fossil Fuels? Published 26 August 2021 | viewed 5,746 times Last week, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change delivered its starkest warning yet about the deepening climate emergency, saying a key temperature limit of 1.5… 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sebastian Meana + 278 September 17, 2021 (edited) Natural gas prices arent high is just that the US currency lost 15% of its value in a year, historically gas is bit under 4U$D/Mbtu in 2010 USD which is around 5U$D today. Edited September 17, 2021 by Sebastian Meana 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN September 17, 2021 Gazprom: Russia Has Gas Reserves For More Than A Century By Tsvetana Paraskova - Sep 17, 2021, 1:00 PM CDT https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Gazprom-Russia-Has-Gas-Reserves-For-More-Than-A-Century.html Russia's natural gas reserves will last for more than a century, Alexey Miller, chairman of the board of gas giant Gazprom, said on Friday. "Gas reserves in Russia, Gazprom's gas reserves are the largest in the world. And we won't have any problems with our reserves for the next 100 years," Miller said at a business conference in Moscow, as carried by Russian news agency TASS. Some of the gas fields that Gazprom is developing in the Yamal region have the potential to produce gas until 2132, Miller noted. "The prospects for pipeline gas supplies are quite great," Gazprom's head said. Last week, Gazprom completed the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, although gas flows on the controversial Russia-led pipeline cannot begin until Germany grants an operating license to the project. Earlier this month, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that Russia's offshore Arctic resources alone could last for decades and even centuries. "The potential of the Arctic zone is huge. Speaking about offshore resources only, those are 15 bln tonnes of oil and around 100 trillion cubic meters of gas. That will suffice for decades, hundreds of years if they are required and it is economically reasonable," Novak said on Thursday, as carried by Russian news agency TASS. These resources, however, are very expensive to develop right now, the Russian official said, but noted that the government plans to encourage offshore Arctic development regardless. Massive offshore Arctic development would take place only if needed and only if other regions in Russia run out of resources, Novak added. Arctic offshore project developments in Russia are under U.S. sanctions which ban the provision of services or technology in support of exploration or production for deepwater, Arctic offshore, or shale projects. Earlier this year, Russian Natural Resources Minister Alexander Kozlov said that Russia's oil reserves would last until 2080 at the current pace of annual production. Russia also has natural gas reserves for another 103 years of annual production at current output levels, the minister said. By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KeyboardWarrior + 527 September 18, 2021 8 hours ago, Sebastian Meana said: Natural gas prices arent high is just that the US currency lost 15% of its value in a year, historically gas is bit under 4U$D/Mbtu in 2010 USD which is around 5U$D today. There I were, sleeping, thinking that there was a supply crunch. Behold inflation... Perhaps a short position isn't wise. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sebastian Meana + 278 September 19, 2021 (edited) 22 hours ago, KeyboardWarrior said: There I were, sleeping, thinking that there was a supply crunch. Behold inflation... Perhaps a short position isn't wise. I mean, if you listen what the FEDs say, and discount the fact that fuel, minerals, groceries, electricity, water, natural gas, is more expensive or that the stock market is going higher and higher, that the Dollar lost 10% its value against the Swiss Franc, or that real estate is becoming more unaforrdable everyday, if you remove all those factors, then inflation isnt that high One could start shorting the dollar, isnt the safest bet for sure, but nowadays isnt completely unthinkable Edited September 19, 2021 by Sebastian Meana 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Eric Gagen + 713 September 19, 2021 10 hours ago, Sebastian Meana said: I mean, if you listen what the FEDs say, and discount the fact that fuel, minerals, groceries, electricity, water, natural gas, is more expensive or that the stock market is going higher and higher, that the Dollar lost 10% its value against the Swiss Franc, or that real estate is becoming more unaforrdable everyday, if you remove all those factors, then inflation isnt that high One could start shorting the dollar, isnt the safest bet for sure, but nowadays isnt completely unthinkable Could be - could be. The US government is definitely doing everything in its power to devalue its currency. The question from an investment perspective is that they may still fail to fall faster than their competitors. It’s like a race to see who can cripple themselves first. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KeyboardWarrior + 527 September 19, 2021 Now is definitely not the time for long positions. That's for AFTER the crash; and I'm confident that a crash is coming. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN September 20, 2021 Two Industries Getting Slammed By Sky High Oil And Natural Gas Prices By Alex Kimani - Sep 19, 2021, 4:00 PM CDT https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Two-Industries-Getting-Slammed-By-Sky-High-Oil-And-Natural-Gas-Prices.html 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
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