Europeans and Americans are beginning to see the results of depending on renewables.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

On 9/14/2021 at 11:13 PM, ronwagn said:

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Protests-Break-Out-in-Europe-As-Electricity-Prices-Soar.html Europe is having problems with energy supply due to depending on Russian natural gas, and coal of their own to meet much of their need. Russia is going to ask a hefty price to come up with the money to pay for their new pipeline Nordstream 2. 

Many people are wondering how to cope with inflation and energy prices in America. Taxes are also going up in America and the corporate taxes always filter down to the average consumer. The left has many ideas on spending money, that we cannot afford, on building charging stations for EV's that will be built in the future, and will be sold with $7,500 rebates for those who might want them. EV's will require more electricity from whatever source and more power lines to deliver it. It will be the Greatest Show on Earth and have a HUGE price tag. 

Why would Russia "ask a hefty price" for a pipeline which has already been paid for? All that needs to be done is certifying it ASAP and letting it do its thing, preferably without the moronic 50% capacity cap which is already in effect on NorthStream1 (as a measure of "solidarity" with Poland, apparently)

It was the crazy Stockholm arbitrage cases brought by Poland and Ukraine which made Gazprom pay fines to the tune of several billion for alleged overcharges and tie all new long-term contracts to the spot price for LNG instead of oil. The EU got what they asked for - Gazprom is reporting a price of some $270/m^3 on its long-term contracts that it is serving now, instead of nearly $1.5K spot now. The way it looks now, it is actually more profitable for Gazprom to NOT open the NS2. Couple of years of such spot prices and the investment of some $10 bln is fully amortized.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

On 9/30/2021 at 7:45 PM, Starschy said:

There is no problem with Europe energy supply. UK does not count as Europe. There is a price hike at Rotterdam. But European companies have large contracts with Gazprom as example they run from 5 to 20 years. Pricing is at least 30to 50% below the actual Spot Price.

Gazprom is delivering around 200 Billion m3 this year. No serious Gas supplier is using Spot price for their long term Gas deliveries. UK infrastructure is a disgrace and can not be compared to Central Europe.

Not quite. The Stockholm arbitrage charged Gazprom some $2 bln on behalf of Poland for allegedly overcharging and forced them to redo their long-term contracts to take spot price into account (instead of oil-based reference they used before) So, the spot prices will progressively be affecting newer Gazprom long term contract prices, only with a 6-9 month delay. Be careful what you wish for, you might actually get it?

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

On 9/30/2021 at 9:23 PM, ronwagn said:

Their shortage is due to not being energy independent. They have coal, oil and hydro. Their nuclear power is only 4.9% of their total. Their coal is largely imported as is their oil. They have boycotted Australian coal (informally) and are suffering the consequences. China has antagonized the entire world due to its COVID spreading and associated lies.

...

Japan, South Korea, India, and Australia now form the QUAD which are actively opposing the threat of China. The rest of the world has good reason to reduce dealings with China which support them.

...

China "COVID spreading" antagonized the world about as much as US "COVID financing" (and associated lies).

Quad o'five? Actually, I see only three. Neither India nor South Korea are going to do anything beyond token verbal support at most.

There is a threat of China? Says who, the US? Most of the world didn't notice.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

On 9/30/2021 at 11:48 PM, Starschy said:

Have you ever heard Redundancy. There is one small Gas Pipeline from Holland to UK with 16 Bio. m3  a year. No secondary line from France. No large volumes Contract with Gazprom of course not.

Total Gas consumption UK around 80 Bio m3 means more as Germany.

End of October large Climate conference in Glasgow. Most Delegates probably take two Kanister (Jerrycanes) Gasoline from Home for their Taxi ride.

A Power cable from Europe to Kent no secondary Transformer and that main Transformer is now out for weeks.

Ever used British Rail London Glasgow most Trains are late there 1-2 hours. Russias Rail Company does not even for a two times longer ride Moscow - Jekaterinenburg so many additional hours.

To compare British Rail with Switzerlands Rail Company or Japanese Shinkansen would make UK a third World Country.

Central Heating? Never heard, they heat a few Rooms over there not to compare with Europe.

I heard Lizbekistan

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

On 10/1/2021 at 3:31 AM, Boat said:

The US under Trump did little to support Australia in their economic battle with China. Like I have said, China is dependent on the nations that buy their goods. If we stand as one China will be forced to change their behavior or go back to the Stone Age. Kill the individual greed and force behavior change. Instead of war machines simply reject cargo ships and tie them to bad behavior.

What is that exactly that the Chinese do to you, all of a sudden? I mean, everything was A-OK before Trump. Besides, your dependency on China is as much as theirs on you, if not more. Because you wouldn't bear to pay 10x more for your widgets and other junk.You'd have to, if you were to make them yourself though.

[JoMack + 547]

So, we have a real beauty that will soon be installed as head of the Bureau of Land Management.  An eco-terrorist leaning radical will be approving leasing and permitting for oil, gas, and coal on federal lands.  25% of U.S. energy.  There goes the ballgame!

Senate confirms Bureau of Land Management pick Tracy Stone-Manning on party-line vote

Republicans decry nominee involved in 1989 tree-spiking plot

 

 

 

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

4 hours ago, JoMack said:

So, we have a real beauty that will soon be installed as head of the Bureau of Land Management.  An eco-terrorist leaning radical will be approving leasing and permitting for oil, gas, and coal on federal lands.  25% of U.S. energy.  There goes the ballgame!

Senate confirms Bureau of Land Management pick Tracy Stone-Manning on party-line vote

Republicans decry nominee involved in 1989 tree-spiking plot

 

 

 

This will send the price of oil even higher on world markets....and yet Biden & Co. are begging the Saudis to lower oil prices....looks like the government is exhaling and inhaling at the same time. A true split personality management style.

Edited October 4, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Starschy + 211]

• Quote

  German Coal Plant Runs Completely Out Of Coal

  That Bloomberg Story was very faulty

Berkamen (City and Powerstation have the same name) does of course have a Railway station. But not Powerstation which is only 50 meter from the River. Coal was historic delivered there  by Boat.

Second that Power station will be closed issued 4th May 2021 by News of the Steag Group

Meaning there is no shortage of Coal when the Power station will be shut down anyway.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

9 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

China "COVID spreading" antagonized the world about as much as US "COVID financing" (and associated lies).

Quad o'five? Actually, I see only three. Neither India nor South Korea are going to do anything beyond token verbal support at most.

There is a threat of China? Says who, the US? Most of the world didn't notice.

IMHO you are turning a blind eye to the friend of Russia. Check out the news from Australia, India, South Korea, Philipines, and Japan. I will not venture to fill you in. 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

2 hours ago, ronwagn said:

IMHO you are turning a blind eye to the friend of Russia. Check out the news from Australia, India, South Korea, Philipines, and Japan. I will not venture to fill you in. 

Ah, you see, but all of these but Japan and Australia are also very good friends of Russia's. Possibly bigger friends than they are of US'.

You've got to be nuts to plan any kind of actual military action simultaneously involving the Koreans and the Japanese. About as practical as NATO military action simultaneously featuring the Greeks and the Turks, for all the same reasons. That is, they are going to raise to the occasion to go after each other's throat behind your back. The plan is pretty much official for all the parties involved. Having a hard time to think of a Far Eastern nation which does not hate the Japanese more than anybody else. The Chinese could only hope to make their #2 most hated spot. If I were you, I'd throw the Japanese under the bus and pick up Vietnam instead. So far, have they been able to kick the Chinese ass on their own. The Malay and Indonesians are spent on anti-Chinese activities since Nixon (really Kissinger). The Chinese are a lot more likely to sign them up, especially if you've got Japan on board.

[JoMack + 547]

LET'S FIND OUT THE COST OF RENEWABLES FROM "TEXAS"!  

Being one of the unfortunate saps living in Texas during the FREEZE, the idea that renewables played no role in the 3.5 days of "freezing my ass in the dark", let's see what happened in Texas and argue with it or not, having 25% of your power generated using prayers to Mother Nature to "please, please have the wind blow today" and "please, please, please, give us a break and get the sun out to get us above 4 degrees", isn't anyway to run your electric grid, no matter what the cost.

A recent study from Synapse Energy Economics (commissioned by the Sierra Club) claims that replacing the J.K. Spruce coal-fired power plant units owned by CPS Energy — San Antonio’s municipal utility — with wind and solar power “could benefit rate payers an average of $85 million each year from 2026-2040.”

Unfortunately, the Sierra Club and the press coverage surrounding the report fail to acknowledge a critical gap in the assumptions underlying the flawed narrative that wind and solar are rapidly becoming cheaper than fossil fuels for electricity generation.

When the report says that the levelized cost of wind is $17 per megawatt-hour and solar is $25 per MWh, it is only counting the cost to build the wind turbines and solar panels and hook them up to the grid. In reality, when we add wind and solar to our grid, we are paying for two systems: the renewable resources themselves, and the cost to firm them up — to provide backup power when the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine, and to cut production when there is too much wind or sun.

Until recently, the costs of this “second system” have been hidden because wind and solar have comprised less than 20 percent of Texas’ electricity production and the state has had ample reserves. But these costs will rise dramatically as we add more wind and solar to the Texas grid.

In other words, the more renewables we have, the less value they add because we are having to pay more for the second system behind them.

We already have evidence of this problem up Interstate 35 in Georgetown, which decided about five years ago to purchase enough wind and solar energy to classify itself as “100 percent renewable.” The city claimed it was going to save money by doing so but is losing millions of dollars and has raised electricity rates twice in the past five months. What happened?

What Georgetown failed to consider was the cost of the second system. First, because of the variability of wind and solar resources, the city has been forced to maintain a natural gas contract to provide energy during expensive peak load hours, when solar and wind output cannot cover its electricity demand.

But it is really getting hammered by the low or even negative nighttime prices caused by excess amounts of wind energy in the regions where its wind farms are located. The city bought fixed-price contracts — betting on stable or rising prices — and are now having to sell excess wind at night for huge losses.

Aside from using backup power to handle this variability, another way San Antonio could solve these second-system needs is to use energy storage, which is strongly supported by renewable energy advocates. However, the cost of storage could be billions.

Georgetown is, in a sense, fortunate that it can pay the market to supply extra electricity or absorb excess electricity and doesn’t have to rely on energy storage. CPS Energy, which provides almost 50 times the amount of electricity as Georgetown, cannot lean on the market to this extent and will have to procure an enormous amount of energy storage to make 100 percent renewable a reality.

Scale this problem up to the entire state, and you can see why 100 percent renewable is not doable, or at the very least would be unimaginably expensive.

Local leaders in San Antonio are considering a plan, known as the Climate Action and Adaptation Plan, or CAAP, which in part would retire the city’s coal- and natural gas-fired power plants and force residents to become more dependent on renewables. But the experiment in Georgetown did not work out well for ratepayers there, and San Antonio has more than 20 times the people who need access to reliable, affordable energy.

San Antonio officials and residents need to recognize the extreme cost of turning renewable energy into reliable energy and see through the false narrative being peddled by the Sierra Club.

RELATED CONTENT

 

 

[turbguy + 1,391]

37 minutes ago, JoMack said:

LET'S FIND OUT THE COST OF RENEWABLES FROM "TEXAS"!  

Being one of the unfortunate saps living in Texas during the FREEZE, the idea that renewables played no role in the 3.5 days of "freezing my ass in the dark", let's see what happened in Texas and argue with it or not, having 25% of your power generated using prayers to Mother Nature to "please, please have the wind blow today" and "please, please, please, give us a break and get the sun out to get us above 4 degrees", isn't anyway to run your electric grid, no matter what the cost.

A recent study from Synapse Energy Economics (commissioned by the Sierra Club) claims that replacing the J.K. Spruce coal-fired power plant units owned by CPS Energy — San Antonio’s municipal utility — with wind and solar power “could benefit rate payers an average of $85 million each year from 2026-2040.”

Unfortunately, the Sierra Club and the press coverage surrounding the report fail to acknowledge a critical gap in the assumptions underlying the flawed narrative that wind and solar are rapidly becoming cheaper than fossil fuels for electricity generation.

When the report says that the levelized cost of wind is $17 per megawatt-hour and solar is $25 per MWh, it is only counting the cost to build the wind turbines and solar panels and hook them up to the grid. In reality, when we add wind and solar to our grid, we are paying for two systems: the renewable resources themselves, and the cost to firm them up — to provide backup power when the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine, and to cut production when there is too much wind or sun.

Until recently, the costs of this “second system” have been hidden because wind and solar have comprised less than 20 percent of Texas’ electricity production and the state has had ample reserves. But these costs will rise dramatically as we add more wind and solar to the Texas grid.

In other words, the more renewables we have, the less value they add because we are having to pay more for the second system behind them.

We already have evidence of this problem up Interstate 35 in Georgetown, which decided about five years ago to purchase enough wind and solar energy to classify itself as “100 percent renewable.” The city claimed it was going to save money by doing so but is losing millions of dollars and has raised electricity rates twice in the past five months. What happened?

What Georgetown failed to consider was the cost of the second system. First, because of the variability of wind and solar resources, the city has been forced to maintain a natural gas contract to provide energy during expensive peak load hours, when solar and wind output cannot cover its electricity demand.

But it is really getting hammered by the low or even negative nighttime prices caused by excess amounts of wind energy in the regions where its wind farms are located. The city bought fixed-price contracts — betting on stable or rising prices — and are now having to sell excess wind at night for huge losses.

Aside from using backup power to handle this variability, another way San Antonio could solve these second-system needs is to use energy storage, which is strongly supported by renewable energy advocates. However, the cost of storage could be billions.

Georgetown is, in a sense, fortunate that it can pay the market to supply extra electricity or absorb excess electricity and doesn’t have to rely on energy storage. CPS Energy, which provides almost 50 times the amount of electricity as Georgetown, cannot lean on the market to this extent and will have to procure an enormous amount of energy storage to make 100 percent renewable a reality.

Scale this problem up to the entire state, and you can see why 100 percent renewable is not doable, or at the very least would be unimaginably expensive.

Local leaders in San Antonio are considering a plan, known as the Climate Action and Adaptation Plan, or CAAP, which in part would retire the city’s coal- and natural gas-fired power plants and force residents to become more dependent on renewables. But the experiment in Georgetown did not work out well for ratepayers there, and San Antonio has more than 20 times the people who need access to reliable, affordable energy.

San Antonio officials and residents need to recognize the extreme cost of turning renewable energy into reliable energy and see through the false narrative being peddled by the Sierra Club.

RELATED CONTENT

 

Put the storage at the plant site.

[Rob Plant + 2,601]

On 9/30/2021 at 8:23 PM, ronwagn said:

Their shortage is due to not being energy independent. They have coal, oil and hydro. Their nuclear power is only 4.9% of their total. Their coal is largely imported as is their oil. They have boycotted Australian coal (informally) and are suffering the consequences. China has antagonized the entire world due to its COVID spreading and associated lies. 

Japan, South Korea, India, and Australia now form the QUAD which are actively opposing the threat of China. The rest of the world has good reason to reduce dealings with China which support them. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_China

America is helping China with its urgent coal needs and gaining market share. I have not heard (unsurprisingly) any complaints from the green extremists. 

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3139209/china-australia-relations-us-coal-continues-fill-void-left#:~:text=Australia's%20coal%20exports%20to%20China,import%20restrictions%20on%20Australian%20coal

 

Ron you seem to propose an argument to reduce dealings with China and literally in the next sentence tell us that the USA is supporting China in its coal needs.

Which is it that Americans want, increasing their coal exports to China or helping other countries combat China like the ones you name??

I believe you are a republican and Trump advocate, did you disagree with Trump's stance on China and the trade wars?

[Rob Plant + 2,601]

On 9/30/2021 at 10:48 PM, Starschy said:

Have you ever heard Redundancy. There is one small Gas Pipeline from Holland to UK with 16 Bio. m3  a year. No secondary line from France. No large volumes Contract with Gazprom of course not.

Total Gas consumption UK around 80 Bio m3 means more as Germany.

End of October large Climate conference in Glasgow. Most Delegates probably take two Kanister (Jerrycanes) Gasoline from Home for their Taxi ride.

A Power cable from Europe to Kent no secondary Transformer and that main Transformer is now out for weeks.

Ever used British Rail London Glasgow most Trains are late there 1-2 hours. Russias Rail Company does not even for a two times longer ride Moscow - Jekaterinenburg so many additional hours.

To compare British Rail with Switzerlands Rail Company or Japanese Shinkansen would make UK a third World Country.

Central Heating? Never heard, they heat a few Rooms over there not to compare with Europe.

what a pile of utter shite!

https://www.energy-uk.org.uk/our-work/generation/gas-generation/gas-supplies.html

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/energy-policy-and-regulation/policy-and-regulatory-programmes/interconnectors

There has been MSM scaremongering about fuel shortages so every dickhead in the UK has been buying fuel and creating short term shortages which have lasted for about 1 week.

Power interconnectors 

https://grid.iamkate.com/

"no secondary transformer" I presume you mean interconnector, see above link that makes you an ill informed liar.

There is no such thing as British Rail so you must be an imbecile, it was privatised in 1997 so you're just the 24 years out of date!

No central heating??? where did you stop in a bloody cave???

All homes have central heating, in fact every house has an energy performance rating and how it can be improved. This directly affects the house price and you MUST have an EPC  (energy performance certificate).

If you dont like the UK then piss off back to your crappy little country and do some fact checking first and you might learn something instead of spouting unfounded bullshit

[Starschy + 211]

British Rail I don't care if that Service comes from one or 5 Companies. The service is mediocre compared to Switzerland.

I was in London, Scotland the Orkneys and nothing can be compared with Central heating in Western Europe.

When your Pipelines to Europe would work why are the UK in such trouble ?

Langeled pipeline a lot of Gas went to Europe to Emden and Zeerbruegge. Gassco is the operator. Therefore its not counted as a British Pipeline and can't be compared to Nordstream2 as those deliver 100% to Germany.

Usually UK has different formats and therefore Interconnector needs a transformer to get the correct output. If the backup would be in place not even a small discussion would have started.

Edited October 5, 2021 by Starschy

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

1 hour ago, Rob Plant said:

"no secondary transformer" I presume you mean interconnector, see above link that makes you an ill informed liar.

HVDC interconnector's equivalent to AC transformer is called the "static inverter" There is normally only one per interconnector side, but it's got some amount of internal redundancy, being built out of units the size of thyristors used in rail traction control.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

On 10/4/2021 at 12:50 PM, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Not quite. The Stockholm arbitrage charged Gazprom some $2 bln on behalf of Poland for allegedly overcharging and forced them to redo their long-term contracts to take spot price into account (instead of oil-based reference they used before) So, the spot prices will progressively be affecting newer Gazprom long term contract prices, only with a 6-9 month delay. Be careful what you wish for, you might actually get it?

Well as Pole I can assure you that we have now for sure the  most uncompetent goverment in all of Europe. Poland is also one of these most rusophobic countries in the world.

As transit country between Western Europe and Russia we tried to block additional russian gas from  flowing for about 20 years and failed miserably because we are to short for such policy against nearly whole Europe.

Also for at least 20 years ( I was born in 1985) I tried to convince people in my country that we cant fight with Russia and Germany at the some time and bet strategically on USA. Im not really blaming USA because this is global hegemon and we are rather small country so Germany and Russia are simply much more important for USA in their global foreign policy.  Now main enemy is China so it seems to be a change in US policy

If you are interested I suggest reading this 2 open letters from 2020

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/05/open-letter-russia-policy-391434

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/09/25/russia-open-letters-rebuttal-421546

So unfortunately  it seems to be high time to finally  pay for such stupid suicidal policy.

We did exacly  the some in 1939 -tried  to be against Germany and USSR and bet on Great Britain to defend their global hegemony as first country.  The result was 6 milion people dead in Second Worl War.

There was illegal recording of our Foreign Minister in 2014 Radosław Sikorski (he was FM at the time). He probably drunk to much and said something like that

 

Quote

 

We fragmencie rozmowy, który "Wprost" udostępnił w niedzielę mediom, minister spraw zagranicznych nie ma wątpliwości, że polityka prowadzona przez premiera i szefa MON jest błędem. Nie znamy kontekstu tej rozmowy. Agnieszka Burzyńska z "Wprost" poinformowała w programie "Loża prasowa" w TVN24, że doszło do niej na przełomie stycznia i lutego. Za posiłek zapłacić miał MSZ.

- Wiesz, że polsko-amerykański sojusz to jest nic niewarty. Jest wręcz szkodliwy, bo stwarza Polsce fałszywe poczucie bezpieczeństwa - stwierdza Sikorski.

Jacek Rostowski, z którym rozmawia, dopytuje, dlaczego.

- Bullshit kompletny. Skonfliktujemy się z Niemcami, z Rosją, i będziemy uważali, że wszystko jest super, bo zrobiliśmy laskę Amerykanom. Frajerzy. Kompletni frajerzy - mówi Sikorski.

Potem w rozmowie poruszony jest wątek mentalności Polaków.

Sikorski: Problem w Polsce jest, że mamy bardzo płytką dumę i niską samoocenę.

Rostkowski: Taki sentymentalizm.

Sikorski: Taką murzyńskość

Rostowski: Jak, jak?

Sikorski: Murzyńskość.

 

In the fragment of the conversation that "Wprost" made available to the media on Sunday, the minister of foreign affairs has no doubt that the policy pursued by the prime minister and the head of the Ministry of National Defense is a mistake. We do not know the context of this conversation. Agnieszka Burzyńska from "Wprost" informed in the TVN24 program "Press box" that it happened at the turn of January and February. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs was to pay for the meal.

- You know that the Polish-American alliance is worthless. It is even harmful because it creates a false sense of security in Poland, says Sikorski.

Jacek Rostowski, with whom he talks, asks why.

- Bullshit complete. We will come into conflict with Germany, with Russia, and we will think that everything is great, because we have done a favor to the Americans. Suckers. Complete losers - says Sikorski.

Later, the topic of Poles' mentality is raised in the conversation.

Sikorski: The problem in Poland is that we have very shallow pride and low self-esteem.

Rostkowski: Such sentimentality.

Sikorski: Such a blackness

Rostowski: How, how?

Sikorski: Negroness

Edited October 5, 2021 by Tomasz

[Tomasz + 1,608]

And for Russian behaviour. As far as I know collective West is really not a  friend of Russia at all after 1991.

You simply impose so many sanctions starting from Magnitsky Law in 2012 that I find it really strange to expect that Gazprom will now behave as some kind of charity organization and save Europe from cold.

So maybe I have an advice - to encourage Russia to send more NG this winter  that it is currently  obliged by contracts maybe you should really think to ease at least some sanctions as olive branch?

 Because if not it might be really a cold winter.

Maybe its biased to some kind of russian point of view but you cant eat cake  and still have it. In the same manner impose sanctions all the time  and expect  cooperation.

Encourage Maidan in 2014 and expect antichinese policy from Russia.

You should also f8nally decide whether there is too much Russian gas in Europe or rather to little.  

Edited October 5, 2021 by Tomasz

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

4 minutes ago, Tomasz said:

...

We did exacly  the some in 1939 - fight with Germany and USSR and bet on Great Britain.  The result was 6 milion people dead in Second Worl War.

...

So unfortunately  it seems to be high time to finally  pay for such stupid suicidal policy.

,,,and in 1812, when you bet on Napolean, and  each and every time before that, something similar.

There is a silver lining - this time, you are not getting partitioned just yet.

Actually, for more than 20 years. I heard that Poland was a major roadblock to East-West integration under Comecon already. Take a closer look at the port of Murkan on the Island of Sassnitz where NS2 project staged. USSR and DDR once built it as a Poland-bypass. So, when your military say that Russian tanks will be in Warsaw in 3 days, they are being coy. The Russian tanks will be in Murkan in under a day, leaving all of Poland behind. In 3 days, Warsaw will be Chinese

[ronwagn + 6,290]

5 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Ron you seem to propose an argument to reduce dealings with China and literally in the next sentence tell us that the USA is supporting China in its coal needs.

Which is it that Americans want, increasing their coal exports to China or helping other countries combat China like the ones you name??

I believe you are a republican and Trump advocate, did you disagree with Trump's stance on China and the trade wars?

Please tell me specifically what you would do. I am in favor of the same thing Trump was. We need Fair Trade with our trading partners. If we cannot have that we should minimize trade with those who do not deal fairly with us and our other trade partners. That is exactly what I have said all along.  

China has alienated most of the world with its COVID strategy and its trade practices. It has created a warlike situation in the South Sea by claiming to own most of it. It has broken agreements over Hong Kong. It has misused all of its minorities and religious groups. It is threatening to invade Taiwan. 

Biden's weakness does not bode well for us defending them. He needs to set a firm stance on protecting them and making them strong. I believe that our military is in favor of that. Biden is suspect because of his families dealings with China. 

I do not think that making the Chinese people freeze all winter is a way to gain hearts and minds. It is the Chinese that are boycotting Australian coal. Not the reverse. 

It is very important to show love for the Chinese people and try to divide the Chinese Communist Party hardliners in attempt to diminish their power in China. The Military may not be too happy with how Xi has angered the rest of the world. Xi wants to be a new Mao and total Dictator. Things are not going well for him however IMHO.

Australia, Japan, South Korea, and India have taken a strong stance for Taiwan and we should also.  

Edited October 5, 2021 by ronwagn

[Tomasz + 1,608]

39 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

,,,and in 1812, when you bet on Napolean, and  each and every time before that, something similar.

There is a silver lining - this time, you are not getting partitioned just yet.

Actually, for more than 20 years. I heard that Poland was a major roadblock to East-West integration under Comecon already. Take a closer look at the port of Murkan on the Island of Sassnitz where NS2 project staged. USSR and DDR once built it as a Poland-bypass. So, when your military say that Russian tanks will be in Warsaw in 3 days, they are being coy. The Russian tanks will be in Murkan in under a day, leaving all of Poland behind. In 3 days, Warsaw will be Chinese

Generally, let's start with the fact that no normal sane country buys spot gas according to the stock exchange quotes because with today's market full of fucked up speculators, we simply ask for big trouble at our own request. 

In Europe, except from Poland and Ukraine, nobody has been so fucked up so far.

As far as I know Gazprom announces that the price was to be 210 in January, then  in June about 270 and now supposedly 300 for the whole year.

I admit it becomes rather quite  expensive, but its really still not 1200.

 

Two let us distinguish objectively anti-Russian activities from mad ones.

IMHO it was very rational for us  to go against Russia with the powerful Napoleon, when were under partitions and we had nothing to loose. One may even seriously wonder whether it would  be more rational, after all, to invade the USSR with Hitler like Hungary or Romania than our policy in 1939. I dont agree with such point of view but you can think about it.

But I would like to point out right away that although I am not really superstitious, but what should I think if it has been now scientifically proven that winter 1812/1813 and 1941/1942 were simply the coldest winters in Russia in the 19th century and in the 20th century, respectively.

I read about such a thick brick from 1500 pages monography  about the war of 1812.

Apart from the anomaly in July which made it impossible to crash the Russian army in Belarus and win the war in one month so it was probably tuning point. In general, it seems that Napoleon would have defeated the Russian army with the same maneuver as, for example, the Prussian army in 1806. But there have been 3 decisive days in Belarus. From the historical descriptions of the sunny weather, there were 3 days with a temperatures of about 5 degrees during the day in the middle of summer and torrential weather. Part of the Napoleonic army could not do this classic maneuver too much because their horses simply  refused to cooperate in such cold weather and a lot of these horses from France Spain and Italy jus died in great numbers, which made the life of the Napoleonic army difficult. Three days later the weather returned to summer normal but the armies of Bagration and de Tolly left the critical region and Napoleon's classic maneuver backfired.

On November 5 1812 , normally rather no harsh winter yet. Lithuania around Vilnius, not some kind of Siberia there.

So on that day, a Napoleonic young officer found the temperature for the remnants of Napoleonic troops around minus 65 degrees Celsius early in the morning. I would like to mention near Vilnius and on November 5.

Field Marshal Montgomery did the trick and give some advice for brittish parliament in 1945 or 1946 - First of all, don't march east and I would stick to it.

Edited October 5, 2021 by Tomasz

[ronwagn + 6,290]

22 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Ah, you see, but all of these but Japan and Australia are also very good friends of Russia's. Possibly bigger friends than they are of US'.

You've got to be nuts to plan any kind of actual military action simultaneously involving the Koreans and the Japanese. About as practical as NATO military action simultaneously featuring the Greeks and the Turks, for all the same reasons. That is, they are going to raise to the occasion to go after each other's throat behind your back. The plan is pretty much official for all the parties involved. Having a hard time to think of a Far Eastern nation which does not hate the Japanese more than anybody else. The Chinese could only hope to make their #2 most hated spot. If I were you, I'd throw the Japanese under the bus and pick up Vietnam instead. So far, have they been able to kick the Chinese ass on their own. The Malay and Indonesians are spent on anti-Chinese activities since Nixon (really Kissinger). The Chinese are a lot more likely to sign them up, especially if you've got Japan on board.

I am not sure about your comments. I do agree that Japan has a lot of public relations problems due to their past agressions. IMHO helping Taiwan remain free would be one way of earning trust. Maybe not. South Korea is very dependent on our backing and everyone is dependent on Taiwan computer chips. The backlog is hurting world economies more than any other single item. 

I agree that South Vietnam is a potential ally of us as we are of them. History makes strange allies sometimes. I never would have guessed that South Vietnam would become friendly with us after the war. I guess they are more concerned with potential Chinese aggression. 

I see a lot of advantages in maximum cooperation among all countries which fear Chinese aggression. Since Indonesians and Malaysians are Muslims I doubt they are interested in being under China's thumb in any way. 

I actually think that Russia has more to fear from China than any other possible enemy. America is certainly not interested in attacking Russia, but we are upset when they creep Westward in Europe. IMHO that is equally a problem for Europe and they want to build their own army and be more independent from NATO. 

Russia has a very small economy comparable to that of Spain. It has great scientists, engineers, education, etc. Unfortunately it has not developed its own country compared to Europe. It has done very well with its oil, gas, and pipelines, but it has not done well for the average citizen. They have not even been able to fight their forest fires in Siberia. A lot of valuable timber has been destroyed. Please tell me if you think I am wrong there.This is typically the result in a socialist country run by a virtual dictatorship and its crony businessmen IMHO. 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

13 minutes ago, Tomasz said:

Generally, let's start with the fact that no normal sane country buys spot gas according to the stock exchange quotes because with today's market full of fucked up speculators, we simply ask for big trouble at our own request. 

In Europe, except from Poland and Ukraine, nobody has been so fucked up so far.

As far as I know Gazprom announces that the price was to be 210 in January, then  in June about 270 and now supposedly 300 for the whole year.

I admit it becomes rather quite  expensive, but its really still not 1200.

 

Two let us distinguish objectively anti-Russian activities from mad ones.

IMHO it was very rational for us  to go against Russia with the powerful Napoleon, when were under partitions and we had nothing to loose. One may even seriously wonder whether it would  be more rational, after all, to invade the USSR with Hitler like Hungary or Romania than our policy in 1939. I dont agree with such point of view but you can think about it.

But I would like to point out right away that although I am not really superstitious, but what should I think if it has been now scientifically proven that winter 1812/1813 and 1941/1942 were simply the coldest winters in Russia in the 19th century and in the 20th century, respectively.

I read about such a thick brick from 1500 pages monography  about the war of 1812.

Apart from the anomaly in July which made it impossible to crash the Russian army in Belarus and win the war in one month so it was probably tuning point  then we have such a considance.

On November 5 1812 , normally rather no harsh winter yet. Lithuania around Vilnius, no some kind of Siberia there.

So on that day, a Napoleonic young officer found the temperature for the remnants of Napoleonic troops around minus 65 degrees Celsius early in the morning. I would like to mention near Vilnius and on November 5.

Field Marshal Montgomery did the trick and give some advice for brittish parliament in 1945 or 1946 - First of all, don't march east and I would stick to it.

Not only countries. The spot market does what it is supposed to do - it is an efficient means of price discovery. In case of commodities, it discovers the price at which everybody interested in the actual commodity is at a break even point at best. I used to dab in biodiesel trade, same is true there. Anybody actually cooking biodiesel makes no money if their only feedstock is the semi-official exchange in Rotterdam port.

Only the 1812 was anomalously cold, 1941 merely colder side of average. However, Le Grande Armee turned to retreat before the cold kicked in in October.  I am pretty sure -65C have never been clocked outside of Yakutia The French reported the temperature using some obscure French scale where water boils at 80 degrees. -65 is till too much even in this case. What was Napoleon doing in Moscow, anyway? I mean, if it was a "capture the flag" kind of mission, the capital was over in St. Pete. Could it be that they all simply followed the Polish cavalry riding ahead of everybody through their favorite Smolensk route to Smolensk? There is evidence that the French followed the usual Polish waypoints in some descriptions related to the

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Berezina

In a way, it was very ingenious of the Nazi to take the same old route. Nobody expected them to do the Polish thing yet again.Nobody was even defending there. Guderian could've driven all the way to Moscow without encountering anyone, but he mistook and odd shot for actual defense he expected and dug in. Here is a classic waypoint for a Polish invasion of Russia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivan_Susanin

in which a few fashionable knights of the Polish szhlachta cavalry try to hire a local guide to lead them through a local swamp. Did they really think the Russian peasant was going to believe they are gonna give him an actual zlotiy made out of gold? Might as well make his life count. Some kind of cultural East-West misunderstanding there. As a Russian, I understand perfectly well how to pick between a very bad proposition and a worse one. Here, the best known Nazi tackle at this same waypoint (there were several)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matvey_Kuzmin

Learning from the best (or most experienced, at least) as far as Russian invasions are concerned

Wasn't Poland just out of the previous partition in 1812? The Congress Poland which had Russia ruling over most of it, was a result of Napoleonic wars and not the cause.

Yes, it made a lot of sense for Poland to join the Nazis. Because everybody believed that was their plan, anyway. When Poland signed their Non-Aggression Pact with the Nazis back in 1934, they actually renounced the Versailles treaty (which forms the legal base for its entire existence), in effect switching to the German position on the WWI results.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

20 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

I am not sure about your comments. I do agree that Japan has a lot of public relations problems due to their past aggressions. IMHO helping Taiwan remain free would be one way of earning trust. Maybe not. South Korea is very dependent on our backing and everyone is dependent on Taiwan computer chips. The backlog is hurting world economies more than any other single item. 

I agree that South Vietnam is a potential ally of us as we are of them. History makes strange allies sometimes. I never would have guessed that South Vietnam would become friendly with us after the war. I guess they are more concerned with potential Chinese aggression. 

I see a lot of advantages in maximum cooperation among all countries which fear Chinese aggression. Since Indonesians and Malaysians are Muslims I doubt they are interested in being under China's thumb in any way. 

I actually think that Russia has more to fear from China than any other possible enemy. America is certainly not interested in attacking Russia, but we are upset when they creep Westward in Europe. IMHO that is equally a problem for Europe and they want to build their own army and be more independent from NATO. 

Russia has a very small economy comparable to that of Spain. It has great scientists, engineers, education, etc. Unfortunately it has not developed its own country compared to Europe. It has done very well with its oil, gas, and pipelines, but it has not done well for the average citizen. They have not even been able to fight their forest fires in Siberia. A lot of valuable timber has been destroyed. Please tell me if you think I am wrong there.This is typically the result in a socialist country run by a virtual dictatorship and its crony businessmen IMHO.

You have a typically limited roundeye view of Inter-Chinese relationships. Taiwan DOES NOT want to be free. The one thing the Chinese fascists (the KMT now running Taiwan) and the Commies running PRC have no disagreements about is that there is only one, indivisible China. The only issue is who runs it. Just calling Taiwan its own separate country could've been arranged long ago. But, the Republic of China claims to be the government-in-exile of the entire country, including the PRC-occupied aread. Ditto for the PRC, only in reverse.

South Korea is no longer dependent on US. In fact, they would very much prefer that you left. Only the Japanese cannot do without the American forces there, whether they like them or not.

There is no "South Vietnam" The Commie North won the war. Your relations with Vietnam are cordial these days, but you will not be able to have them as a trusty military ally, regardless how much they dislike China. Enemy of your enemy is not always your friend.

Russia has nothing to fear from China. The opposite is not true. America is already attacking Russia with everything its got, short of overt military action. From historical perspective, there never has been such a thing as a Chinese aggression. They are very insular / self-centered people. The few attacks that PRC did in the recent past were done for the benefit of their than-newfound American friends, to demonstrate that Commies, can, in fact, fight other Commies (as Kissinger had a hard time gaining traction with this concept domestically)

PPP-adjusted, is Russia's economy 5th or 6th in the world, competing with Germany. Don't look at the USD nominals, all that tells you is how undervalued the ruble is in relation to the buck. Which makes a lot of sense for a country running a major trade surplus with pretty much everybody else. Your "economic sanctions" have been quite helpful there, too. Thanks a bunch

Forest fires are natural. Away from a major body of water, there is no known way to extinguish them. All they can do is try to contain them by digging trenches and setting counter-fires. Other than this, Russia got some of the most effective firefighters out there. Even US buys our Beriev firefighting jets. Some of the most valuable timbers, like California redwood, can only grow after all the other trees have burned off. In effect, they dwell on forest fires. Most of Russian taiga is regular spruce, not particularly valuable.

Reminds me of the joke, where a young Rothschild says to elder Rothschild, "Dad, how come all the other children got normal countries and I got this ginormous thing that's got nothing interesting but spruce inside?"

-

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

1 hour ago, Tomasz said:

In Europe, except from Poland and Ukraine, nobody has been so fucked up so far.

Ukraine is actually more fucked up than Poland. They claim that they are buying no Russian gas at all, but only "reverse" some gas from European countries further downstream. Hence the great outcry about Hungary. The Ukrainian budget for "reverses" is suddenly ~4 mln m^3 short (need 19 to get over winter, have 15) Because the "reverse gas" does not exist, except on paper where Ukraine pretend-buys some gas through a chain of Western intermediates affiliated with their local oligarchic clans. The actual gas they simply tap from the transit pipe like they always did. Ultimately, can Gazprom close down Ukraine if it actually goes into punitive pump-or-pay clauses forced by Stockholm arbitrage on Ukraine's case. That is, if Gazprom actually buys out the minimally mandated transit allocation of 40 mln m^3 per year, but actually pumps nothing at all. Than, there is nothing to pretend-reverse and Ukraine gets no gas. In reality is the required amount of "negative gas" required to break the scheme somewhat less than 40 mln m^3

Needless to say, Ukraine has done zilch to make any of its pipelines actually reversible. That is, they cannot import the gas from Europe even if they had the funds. Which they don't. Today, the Ukrainian spot price hit 1,440 USD/m^3 to under 1,200 USD @TTF.