"A Very Predictable Global Energy Crisis" by Irina Slav --- MUST READ

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

I don't understand your analogy about cardboard trust and PCBs for widgets. Please explain for me Andrei. 

Sorry, possibly it was the "All-Union Central plywood trust" not cardboard, responsible for all the plywood and veneer cuts in USSR. Look for something like that and the name Kantorovich. I find only very academic sources online, which disallow easy introduction. There is a whole academic discipline one can major in now, called IEOR (Industrial Engineering and Operations Research) studying such optimizations problems.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

50 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Sorry, possibly it was the "All-Union Central plywood trust" not cardboard, responsible for all the plywood and veneer cuts in USSR. Look for something like that and the name Kantorovich. I find only very academic sources online, which disallow easy introduction. There is a whole academic discipline one can major in now, called IEOR (Industrial Engineering and Operations Research) studying such optimizations problems.

If it works great. We have something called Continuous Quality Improvement which could possibly include engineering depending on the interpretation. It is a valuable study. 

I think that plywood, chipboard, and veneers are a very valuable way to extend the use of wood products, especially by using smaller trees that are thinned out from larger specimens. You mentioned smaller trees in Siberia. 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

2 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

If it works great. We have something called Continuous Quality Improvement which could possibly include engineering depending on the interpretation. It is a valuable study. 

I think that plywood, chipboard, and veneers are a very valuable way to extend the use of wood products, especially by using smaller trees that are thinned out from larger specimens. You mentioned smaller trees in Siberia. 

I was talking about optimization problem of placing all the cutouts (for things like boxes and cupboards) a national economy needs on a very large sheet of plywood such that the leftovers are minimized. This translates to any optimization problem in two dimensions.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

1 hour ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Planned economy and Communism are coincidental bedfellows. Works just as well with state capitalism. All the successful Far Eastern economies like Japan, South Korea and Taiwan implement significant parts of Soviet system, including Gosplan and Five Year Plan. Needless to say, China too. What is wrong with them? Seem to be developing just fine. You now also have an element of planned economy. It's called Amazon. One company replacing the bulk of entire Western retail? So, you could argue that fully planned economy was way ahead of its time, before the computers were ready for it.

USSR under Stalin was the fastest growing economy ever. Nobody is sure how fast that was, but it was sure in the triple digits! From complete devastation of the war to beating USA to space in under 20 years? The only attempt to actually copy US system verbatim produced Liberia, quite likely the most terrifying shithole of all Africa.

I am sure as heck not interested in opinion of any traitors to our people. Who would say whatever. I lived under Soviet socialism and find it was quite all right. You only have as many personal liberties as you know how to exercise. You have pretty much none, because everything that you know comes from mainstream media which is very tightly controlled. The Soviet people knew better than to trust the government media, thus were more free than you are now, IMHO.

We can agree to disagree. You are certainly entitled to your opinion, at least in free countries. We are presently fighting those who are trying to shut Americans up  so we will have to see what happens. Our university system is full of socialist professors. I would fire anyone who is against freedom of thought and expression. 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

1 minute ago, ronwagn said:

We can agree to disagree. You are certainly entitled to your opinion, at least in free countries. We are presently fighting those who are trying to shut Americans up  so we will have to see what happens. Our university system is full of socialist professors. I would fire anyone who is against freedom of thought and expression. 

1. Yes, but it is not the same "socialism"

2. So, you want to be just like your opponents, but with an opposite sign? I would make it illegal to fire people for ideology they support.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

1 hour ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

The "self-defense" logic hardly applies to Golans. Anyhow, Israel was actually losing all those wars it supposedly won. What really happened is due to micromanagement by Mr. Kissinger and Soviet Politburo. Summarized, something like this

Kissinger said, "What do you guys fear most?"

"One side winning for good", said the Politbiro

"Me too", said Kissinger

There is plenty of their direct communications dumped on National Security Archives.

Kissinger is a genius , I just haven't decided if it is for the good or the bad. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

2 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

1. Yes, but it is not the same "socialism"

2. So, you want to be just like your opponents, but with an opposite sign? I would make it illegal to fire people for ideology they support.

I said fire those that do not support freedom of expression. Not those who are socialist professors. I would defund the system if they continue to suppress dissent however. and seek to see that all points of view were discussed freely. 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

On 10/22/2021 at 9:03 AM, ronwagn said:

Kissinger is a genius , I just haven't decided if it is for the good or the bad. 

Do check out the National Service Archives. Kissinger preemptively taking care of Watergate,

Everybody, this is Ford. He is just like Nixon, but smart.

Edited November 2, 2021 by Andrei Moutchkine

[ronwagn + 6,290]

1 hour ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linear_programming

Understand anything? Me neither. This was the subject of 1975 Nobel Prize in econ. As soon as Americans discover some interesting Soviet science, they suck all life out of it, so it looks appropriately serious.

The original problem Kantorovich posited was that of "All-Union cardboard trust", organization entrusted with optimal arrangement for cut outs for all the cardboard packaging the Soviet Union made. Minimizing the left-overs, that is? It is very funny. I've actually personally met several people working the Chinese PCB trade working on this very problem who claimed to have almost solved it

So, the problem turned out to be solvable, but rather difficult. One thing that precludes a good solution is so called "integer constraint" That is, it does not work for dollars made specifically out of 100 cents, but does for Yuan of Renmibi which remains subdivisible into ever smaller infinidismal fractions.

Don't worry about. Here is another example

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shchelkin_spiral

A device that holds a key to hypersonic rocketry. The Yankees keep classifying it, unclassified it again and making progressively ever more complicated CFD models for it. It is otherwise a free energy device, gradually accelerating burning (deflagnating) fuel to detonation speed (thermal detonation) This seems to violate the laws of conservation, because there is about an order of magnitude more energy in detonation. I looked into the original MePHI papers. You know what this device is, among other things? Part of moonshine apparatus to smuggle onto the Mir space station. Any Russian can bent it on his knee in a pinch.

It gets worse. Some of the Russian doomsday apparatuses are not known, because the serious Western sciences won't believe such BS could conceivably exist

I will have to wait for someone smarter to explain it to me. I just got done learning about hypersonic missiles from someone who explained it very well.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

3 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

I will have to wait for someone smarter to explain it to me. I just got done learning about hypersonic missiles from someone who explained it very well.

Well, think a tailor training to minimize leftovers of valuable silks when planning cutouts for garments? Same problem, known to have a provably optimal solution regardless of input size (number of different garment parts) Hypersonic missiles are actually conceptually simpler than regular ones.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

6 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Well, think a tailor training to minimize leftovers of valuable silks when planning cutouts for garments? Same problem, known to have a provably optimal solution regardless of input size (number of different garment parts) Hypersonic missiles are actually conceptually simpler than regular ones.

Well anyone who wants to save money tries that. The question is what is the solution and how is it achieved. So far I haven't learned anything about it. I imagine that a computer program could easily solve it if the task was properly programmed. 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

Just now, ronwagn said:

Well anyone who wants to save money tries that. The question is what is the solution and how is it achieved. So far I haven't learned anything about it. I imagine that a computer program could easily solve it if the task was properly programmed. 

This is what the "linear programming" discipline is about. It is not really all that simple, but simpler than "integer programming" (when there is an "integer constraint") There is a specialized programming language for solving optimization problems called AMPL

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Quote

OIL MARKET: Last month, 6 out of 13 OPEC countries were either unable to boost production or actually saw output dropping (Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela), according to the monthly Bloomberg News survey

Uh, wow. Capex reductions coming front and center?? Symptom of chronic underinvestment, absolutely.

As you know, the misfortunes come in pairs, therefore, on the natural gas market, there is information about some temporary problems with gas production at the largest deposit in Norway, the so-called Troll deposit.

Edited November 1, 2021 by Tomasz

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

1 hour ago, Tomasz said:

Uh, wow. Capex reductions coming front and center?? Symptom of chronic underinvestment, absolutely.

As you know, the misfortunes come in pairs, therefore, on the natural gas market, there is information about some temporary problems with gas production at the largest deposit in Norway, the so-called Troll deposit.

There also has been an actual flow reversal through the Yamal-Europe pipeline through Poland. Is that a third? The gas prices are creeping back up again.

https://www.reuters.com/article/germany-gas-mallnow/update-1-at-polish-german-border-major-russian-gas-pipeline-flowing-east-idUKL8N2RS3D0

Edited November 1, 2021 by Andrei Moutchkine

[Tomasz + 1,608]

15 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

There also has been an actual flow reversal through the Yamal-Europe pipeline through Poland. Is that a third? The gas prices are creeping back up again.

https://www.reuters.com/article/germany-gas-mallnow/update-1-at-polish-german-border-major-russian-gas-pipeline-flowing-east-idUKL8N2RS3D0

Its actually fourth because also transtit through Ukraine is down 1/3. Embargo on coal and electricity to Ukraine from both Russia and Belarus.

Zelensky now is quite unpopular after Panama Papers and going down.

And not that I consider Putin a master of great intrigue.

That's what happened as a result of green madness and he just goes with the wind.

Someone on FT just wrote that Russia is now a global regulator of energy prices.

Considering Putin's Phd dissertation title was about using energy to rebuild Russia geopolitical position he is now doing well.

I will say the embargo is quite brutal, but no more than the murdering of people in Odessa or cutting off the inhabitants of Crimea from the water.

In the place of the Ukrainians, it would be worth considering some kind of barter for water for Crimea.

Edited November 1, 2021 by Tomasz

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Quote

 

OIL MARKET: The backwardation in Brent and WTI market is mind blowing. Not only time-spreads are saying the market is very, very tight, but it's getting even tighter. WTI F2-G2 has surged > 180¢ per barrel. We have seen that level of backwardation only once in last 25 years

The Brent and WTI time-spreads are so rich that even über bull Goldman Sachs is telling clients that while it's biased "bullish time-spreads", it is "on the sideline for now, however, given the recent large rally in time spreads"

 

This is good how you can change perspective in 18 months what is fair price for NG

Quote

In the crude oil market, prices are falling. However, this is by no means a response to the summit. The PRC authorities announced the sale of fuel from strategic reserves in order to stabilize prices. Incidentally, however, US President Joe Biden called in his statement on Saturday for oil-producing countries to increase production and thus support global economic recovery. In the US alone, drilling activity has been growing for 15 consecutive months. Last week, according to Baker Hughes, the number of active oil rigs in the US rose by 1 unit to 444 units. The energy markets, as well as the equity markets that follow and are pushed by good corporate reports, may begin to adjust against the backdrop of many agreements that have been made to alleviate the severity of the global energy deficit problem.

First, Russia is ready to increase its gas supplies to Europe once its underground gas storage facilities are normally filled, which should be by November 8. And the mere statement that supplies will be increased and the Old World will not freeze has already lowered gas prices. Of course, they will not fall back to their previous levels, but they may fall back to the range of $ 600-800 per thousand cubic meters, which is now quite acceptable for Europeans.

Second, the United States expressed dissatisfaction with the reluctance of Russia and Saudi Arabia to increase oil production, believing that it could raise the cost of "black gold" to $ 100 a barrel and above. And now they are actively negotiating with the OPEC countries, persuading them to increase production in order to eliminate the deficit and stop the rise in fuel prices in the world.

 

I think that if Russia has any plans at all about any talks with the West and not that it doesn't give a shit about them, there is a meme that the president of Gazprom once said that Putin should conduct any negotiations with the West only during severe frosts.

The reference to the current situation seems understandable since Putin was appointed by some as some kind of a fixer of energy prices or at least brand new swing producer ( apart from SA). For middle-income country not such a bad position.

The topic of Putin's doctorate is also interesting - apparently written by a ghost writer but so good for Russia that Putin seems at least to have read it a few times with understanding and took it to heart.

Edited November 1, 2021 by Tomasz

[Boat + 1,315]

On 10/10/2021 at 8:14 PM, Eyes Wide Open said:

Morgan Stanley estimates that the global auto supply chain employs "in the range of 11 million people." Jonas pointed to recent statements by VW Group CEO Herbert Diess, who said it takes 30 percent less labor to produce an electric vehicle than a similarly priced car that has the traditional internal combustion engine. This would result in a headcount cut of more than 3 million workers from the global auto industry.

But that number could increase, Jonas said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/15/morgan-stanley-electric-vehicles-will-cost-millions-of-auto-jobs.html

 

The run up to Germany’s federal election this coming Sunday has been characterised by an unprecedented wave of strikes, protests and demonstrations.

The SGP’s election appeal states: “No social problem can be resolved without expropriating the banks and major corporations and placing them under the democratic control of the working class. Their profits and wealth must be confiscated and the trillions given to them over the past year must be returned. The world economy must be restructured on the basis of a scientific and rational plan.”

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2021/09/24/germ-s24.html

 

 

What you ment to say that is that Musk is forcing automakers to tech up or die. The other problem is you assume others to have a Musk vision and manufacturing prowness. Good luck. Just like government space programs, automaker’s seem to struggle. Battery storage is next in line for Musk domination. PS Is Musk ready to take on Samsung and Apple? 

[Boat + 1,315]

On 10/22/2021 at 1:58 AM, ronwagn said:

We can agree to disagree. You are certainly entitled to your opinion, at least in free countries. We are presently fighting those who are trying to shut Americans up  so we will have to see what happens. Our university system is full of socialist professors. I would fire anyone who is against freedom of thought and expression. 

Exactly, a Trump boy who would take freedoms from others and shut them up. Lol Guys like me who understands systems like Russia and China wouldn’t want me talking either. 
Musk is driving a dagger into old power bases and draconian rule while seemingly staying out of politics. It’s the consumer that gives him his power. He will upend the right wing politics with better more efficient, cleaner products.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

58 minutes ago, Boat said:

Exactly, a Trump boy who would take freedoms from others and shut them up. Lol Guys like me who understands systems like Russia and China wouldn’t want me talking either. 
Musk is driving a dagger into old power bases and draconian rule while seemingly staying out of politics. It’s the consumer that gives him his power. He will upend the right wing politics with better more efficient, cleaner products.

You are a deceiver who makes slanderous charges that are untrue. Trump never took freedoms from anyone the leftist bureaucracy and establishment fought to take away his right to free speech. Truth will always win in the long run. The leftists are full of deceit. 

Musk is will not upend right wing politics and has no interest in doing so. He just wants to promote his own ideas. He is already running into problems with the leftists who envy him. You probably missed the story about his T.I.T.S. University. A harmless joke that they will hang around his neck. 

https://www.rt.com/usa/538888-elon-musk-tits-university/

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

9 hours ago, Tomasz said:

Its actually fourth because also transtit through Ukraine is down 1/3. Embargo on coal and electricity to Ukraine from both Russia and Belarus.

Zelensky now is quite unpopular after Panama Papers and going down.

And not that I consider Putin a master of great intrigue.

That's what happened as a result of green madness and he just goes with the wind.

Someone on FT just wrote that Russia is now a global regulator of energy prices.

Considering Putin's Phd dissertation title was about using energy to rebuild Russia geopolitical position he is now doing well.

I will say the embargo is quite brutal, but no more than the murdering of people in Odessa or cutting off the inhabitants of Crimea from the water.

In the place of the Ukrainians, it would be worth considering some kind of barter for water for Crimea.

The existence of an embargo is disputed. The only thing that happened is cancelling of the Euro-style electricity auctions prescribed by Ukrainian law (which also prohibits imports from Russia altogether, anyway) The auctions were blocked by a lawsuit by Ahmetov's DTEK (who own most of Ukraine's native thermal generation) This still does not preclude Inter RAO from letting the unified Soviet grid do its thing and file the whatever paperwork later. This is how they ship to Kazakhstan and the Baltic states.

All the coal simply went to China. Ukraine is not in the market at the going prices.

Edited November 2, 2021 by Andrei Moutchkine

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

10 hours ago, Tomasz said:

I think that if Russia has any plans at all about any talks with the West and not that it doesn't give a shit about them, there is a meme that the president of Gazprom once said that Putin should conduct any negotiations with the West only during severe frosts.

A bit of a rolling blackout in Vienna's "Transdanube" parts (22nd district) yesterday

An unrelated question. You seem to be the only one who successfully changed the wide header picture for your profile (to the image of Kremlin) Is there a special secret to doing that? I get errors regardless of the browser I try. Need to have this

there