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US intel warns China could dominate advanced technologies By NOMAAN MERCHANT October 22, 2021

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https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-joe-biden-technology-business-china-52acbd35f77084771ddeabbb2bfd0789

US intel warns China could dominate advanced technologies

By NOMAAN MERCHANTOctober 22, 2021
Associated Press
One of the main reasons we should not give up advanced technology to China. Another is their treatment of their people. Another is their military aggression in the South Sea. RCW
 
 

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there might be something in urgent need of awareness i.e. quality of products produced.

Japan and the west have dominated quality products of the world for decades. An old product could be used for ages e.g. older version of cars with genuine car parts and hard body; older version of TV/ washing machine/ water pump.

The change in business model that emphasizes turn over rate for profit might have compromised quality of products produced. A car mechanic lamented that new models of car rarely last 3 to 5 years. The body of cars can be dented with single finger press...... Water kettle/ TV/ phone might need to be changed every year or two etc. Imagine the amount of raw material needed, waste produced,  etc.

If we could re-educate the public about the importance of old method, i.e. produce quality products that last, to protect the environment, benefit the users while earning good profit based on number of consumers (compared to unsold products due to low quality) etc, how fast do you think the basic  quality of life could be returned?

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(edited)

2 hours ago, specinho said:

there might be something in urgent need of awareness i.e. quality of products produced.

 

Japan and the west have dominated quality products of the world for decades. An old product could be used for ages e.g. older version of cars with genuine car parts and hard body; older version of TV/ washing machine/ water pump.

The change in business model that emphasizes turn over rate for profit might have compromised quality of products produced. A car mechanic lamented that new models of car rarely last 3 to 5 years. The body of cars can be dented with single finger press...... Water kettle/ TV/ phone might need to be changed every year or two etc. Imagine the amount of raw material needed, waste produced,  etc.

If we could re-educate the public about the importance of old method, i.e. produce quality products that last, to protect the environment, benefit the users while earning good profit based on number of consumers (compared to unsold products due to low quality) etc, how fast do you think the basic  quality of life could be returned?

You really do not want to return to the "quality" of automobiles build in the 1950-1980's.

Engineers back then well knew about the effects of dissimilar metals used in car bodies and fasteners, but management ignored the few dollars of extra costs to avoid "rust buckets".  Heck, if a engineer saved an inch of wire, he was a hero.  Replacing a metal dash with a soft dash also was somewhat less damaging to the occupants.

Have you ever owned a TV that used vacuum tubes instead of semiconductors?  You could heat a room with those.  And spend hours at your local drug store testing tubes to find out which one caused the uncorrectable vertical roll.They actually had "fine-tuning" dials. You even had to leave your seat just to change the volume. But they came in great wooden cabinets!

Old dial phones where another matter.  They would indeed last "forever".  Not very portable, though.

Edited by turbguy
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12 hours ago, specinho said:

there might be something in urgent need of awareness i.e. quality of products produced.

 

Japan and the west have dominated quality products of the world for decades. An old product could be used for ages e.g. older version of cars with genuine car parts and hard body; older version of TV/ washing machine/ water pump.

The change in business model that emphasizes turn over rate for profit might have compromised quality of products produced. A car mechanic lamented that new models of car rarely last 3 to 5 years. The body of cars can be dented with single finger press...... Water kettle/ TV/ phone might need to be changed every year or two etc. Imagine the amount of raw material needed, waste produced,  etc.

If we could re-educate the public about the importance of old method, i.e. produce quality products that last, to protect the environment, benefit the users while earning good profit based on number of consumers (compared to unsold products due to low quality) etc, how fast do you think the basic  quality of life could be returned?

You definitely have most of that wrong. Cars today last forever compared to a 1950's model as do TVs. 

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Countries with 'morally decadent' cultures where 'everything goes' tend to build disruptive businesses because 'no one cares what they do'. How far would Sam Walton, Bill Gates, or Mark Zuckerberg have gotten in post-revolutionary Iran?

China - line everyone up on the square in uniforms waving flags and singing patriotic songs.

US - make videos of all the demonstrators chanting anti-establishment slogans in front of city hall, the stock exchange, or the courthouse steps.

China - Don't question anything. Do what you're told, even if it doesn't make any sense, can't help you economically, and wrecks the country.

US - Argue endlessly. Keep thinking up new reasons to hammer on some ignoramus. Post it on Facebook, tweet it on Twitter. Question everything. If your boss is an idiot, quit. If you can make a living selling t-shirts, great. If you can make a living selling pot in a store, great. If you can publish some stupid bird-fighting game app, great. If your country is going to the dogs, spend hours a day bellyaching. Either that, or run for office.

China - Build a new 'fab' in order to be the 'dominant player in chip production'. Hire instruction followers out of the 'top universities' to design chips. Borrow money to buy acres of fancy equipment.

US - Figure out how to make CPUs on plastic substrates with inkjet printers. Cut cost to 1/10th of a cent apiece. Government help: 0. Government second-guessing: 0. Government knowledge of what you're doing: 0. Punishment if you fail: 0. Rewards if you succeed: 100%.

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(edited)

On 10/25/2021 at 5:35 AM, turbguy said:

You really do not want to return to the "quality" of automobiles build in the 1950-1980's.

Have you ever owned a TV that used vacuum tubes instead of semiconductors? 

Old dial phones where another matter.  They would indeed last "forever".  Not very portable, though.

 

On 10/25/2021 at 3:26 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

You definitely have most of that wrong. Cars today last forever compared to a 1950's model as do TVs. 

products starting 80s might be outstanding. Most of those inventions might still be functioning well today, a 40 years or more of time period e.g. unspoilable or robustic nokia phones, national cars, machines.

 

old satellite TV broadcasting method began back in the 60s?? It has been rather steady especially after the 80s. Recent change into digital format, a more advanced technology, is annoying more than enjoyable. The transmission is truncated now and then. Imagine a drama is reaching its epic and then the show stuck.......... >.<

Edited by specinho

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(edited)

On 10/25/2021 at 11:19 PM, Meredith Poor said:

Countries with 'morally decadent' cultures where 'everything goes' tend to build disruptive businesses because 'no one cares what they do'. How far would Sam Walton, Bill Gates, or Mark Zuckerberg have gotten in post-revolutionary Iran?

China - line everyone up on the square in uniforms waving flags and singing patriotic songs.

US - make videos of all the demonstrators chanting anti-establishment slogans in front of city hall, the stock exchange, or the courthouse steps.

China - Don't question anything. Do what you're told, even if it doesn't make any sense, can't help you economically, and wrecks the country.

US - Argue endlessly. Keep thinking up new reasons to hammer on some ignoramus. Post it on Facebook, tweet it on Twitter. Question everything. If your boss is an idiot, quit. If you can make a living selling t-shirts, great. If you can make a living selling pot in a store, great. If you can publish some stupid bird-fighting game app, great. If your country is going to the dogs, spend hours a day bellyaching. Either that, or run for office.

China - Build a new 'fab' in order to be the 'dominant player in chip production'. Hire instruction followers out of the 'top universities' to design chips. Borrow money to buy acres of fancy equipment.

US - Figure out how to make CPUs on plastic substrates with inkjet printers. Cut cost to 1/10th of a cent apiece. Government help: 0. Government second-guessing: 0. Government knowledge of what you're doing: 0. Punishment if you fail: 0. Rewards if you succeed: 100%.

You shouldn't think that endless arguments are an advantage.  Bill Maher described it as holding America back in its competition with China:

https://youtu.be/2DH4v6FnbvM

You have omitted to mention the undesirable effects of American moral decadence, many of which are obvious to observers outside the USA.

 I used to be horrified at people practicing open defecation in China and India because of their poverty.  China has cleaned up its act, but it is practised in America these days.  

https://youtu.be/AP6WQXvaXBo

https://youtu.be/Ex1IFzTS1FI

Towards the end of Bill Maher's clip, he mentioned university courses in Surviving the Zombie Apocalypse - who knows, it might come in handy.

 You can try searching for homeless people in China. 😉 

https://youtu.be/Su4jtzJYtBE 

https://youtu.be/dWryo4_IctU

Edited by Hotone

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Consumers think of tiers of quality. Mostly we have choices. There are different ideas of “bang for the buck”. 
I have yet to see or hear of a good system. It’s just to difficult. The across the board brain power doesn’t allow for cooperation mixed with critical thinking. 

 

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(edited)

On 10/25/2021 at 5:19 PM, Meredith Poor said:

Countries with 'morally decadent' cultures where 'everything goes' tend to build disruptive businesses because 'no one cares what they do'. How far would Sam Walton, Bill Gates, or Mark Zuckerberg have gotten in post-revolutionary Iran?

China - line everyone up on the square in uniforms waving flags and singing patriotic songs.

US - make videos of all the demonstrators chanting anti-establishment slogans in front of city hall, the stock exchange, or the courthouse steps.

China - Don't question anything. Do what you're told, even if it doesn't make any sense, can't help you economically, and wrecks the country.

US - Argue endlessly. Keep thinking up new reasons to hammer on some ignoramus. Post it on Facebook, tweet it on Twitter. Question everything. If your boss is an idiot, quit. If you can make a living selling t-shirts, great. If you can make a living selling pot in a store, great. If you can publish some stupid bird-fighting game app, great. If your country is going to the dogs, spend hours a day bellyaching. Either that, or run for office.

China - Build a new 'fab' in order to be the 'dominant player in chip production'. Hire instruction followers out of the 'top universities' to design chips. Borrow money to buy acres of fancy equipment.

US - Figure out how to make CPUs on plastic substrates with inkjet printers. Cut cost to 1/10th of a cent apiece. Government help: 0. Government second-guessing: 0. Government knowledge of what you're doing: 0. Punishment if you fail: 0. Rewards if you succeed: 100%.

Does the Capitol count as a city hall? Because we all know how far chanting anti-establishment slogans in front of it got some.

Zuckerberg was interested in stalking girls and very nearly got in trouble for it in US, too.

The CPUs printed on plastic substrates are not the same CPUs made by "acres of fancy equipment" and never will be. The only area where the two technologies may compete is in solar panels, where traditional silicon-based ones won over fancy thin-film designs driven by US startups like Nanosolar. If you are looking for a better example of ghetto-style semiconductor manufacturing technique, try bath immersion.

Edited by Andrei Moutchkine

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3 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

The CPUs printed on plastic substrates are not the same CPUs made by "acres of fancy equipment" and never will be. The only area where the two technologies may compete is in solar panels, where traditional silicon-based ones won over fancy thin-film designs driven by US startups like Nanosolar. If you are looking for a better example of ghetto-style semiconductor manufacturing technique, try bath immersion.

The point of this is that Western (including American) entrepreneurs work with exactly what they need to accomplish something, rather than wait for the central government to issue a mandate, push money onto local officials, who then go through the motions of making it look like they're doing what the central government told them to do. A lot of advanced technologies involve doing things that upset incumbents, which in the case of China would be state owned enterprises. Since the Western 'mandate' originates in the market and seeks minimum cost, people get rewarded for outcomes. In some cases in China, the rewards come from 'looking busy working on a high-priority government project'.

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14 minutes ago, Meredith Poor said:

The point of this is that Western (including American) entrepreneurs work with exactly what they need to accomplish something, rather than wait for the central government to issue a mandate, push money onto local officials, who then go through the motions of making it look like they're doing what the central government told them to do. A lot of advanced technologies involve doing things that upset incumbents, which in the case of China would be state owned enterprises. Since the Western 'mandate' originates in the market and seeks minimum cost, people get rewarded for outcomes. In some cases in China, the rewards come from 'looking busy working on a high-priority government project'.

This is not so. China awards very high degree of economic freedom to its citizens. There never has been a clear connection of economic freedoms to individual / political variety, on which the USA actually also scores quite low (despite much pep talk to the contrary)

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2 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

China awards very high degree of economic freedom to its citizens.

Up to a point. There is some kind of 'crackdown' on the tech companies, perhaps deservedly so. Education companies can no longer be profit-making and can no longer teach core curricula - in other words, no more 'cram schools'.

Chinese citizens can do whatever they want with whatever money they have. They can't float financing from western stock markets or Chinese 'shadow banks'. This limits the ability of entrepreneurs to concentrate capital, which keeps projects small - and unthreatening to CCP power.

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On 10/24/2021 at 2:58 PM, specinho said:

there might be something in urgent need of awareness i.e. quality of products produced.

 

Japan and the west have dominated quality products of the world for decades. An old product could be used for ages e.g. older version of cars with genuine car parts and hard body; older version of TV/ washing machine/ water pump.

The change in business model that emphasizes turn over rate for profit might have compromised quality of products produced. A car mechanic lamented that new models of car rarely last 3 to 5 years. The body of cars can be dented with single finger press...... Water kettle/ TV/ phone might need to be changed every year or two etc. Imagine the amount of raw material needed, waste produced,  etc.

If we could re-educate the public about the importance of old method, i.e. produce quality products that last, to protect the environment, benefit the users while earning good profit based on number of consumers (compared to unsold products due to low quality) etc, how fast do you think the basic  quality of life could be returned?

Well HELL YES, China is stealing anything and everything in sight. You have these liberal professors that have life time posts handing over and lying about connections with China Military.

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4 hours ago, RichieRich216 said:

Well HELL YES, China is stealing anything and everything in sight. You have these liberal professors that have life time posts handing over and lying about connections with China Military.

No longer. Or not only. Take Huawei, a really innovative company. Which is a lot more dangerous to US position than if they were really stealing.

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(edited)

They no longer only steal. But in crucial areas their tech takes 16x the space and power to do the same job.

Edited by nsdp
6 in wrong place.

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(edited)

On 10/29/2021 at 5:43 AM, nsdp said:

They no longer only steal. But in crucial areas their tech takes 16x the space and power to do the same job.

It's the other way round in terms of tech.  Listen at 4:08 into this video, where a major telecom operator describes Huawei products:

https://youtu.be/lv2ksommY0Y

Edited by Hotone
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Here is a good channel for comparing US vs China for most of the important things. This guy lived in China for 10 years and have a Chinese wife. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C9bAk_mhPIo

For chip industry China is lagging behind US, Taiwan and Korea and start lagging Japan and Europe since Trump banned some key parts of chip to China and Biden yet reversed the most important parts. And it is the infrastructure for everything in Industry 4.0  especially AI because it increases the capacity and scalability to handle and process big data cheaply to train for AI. And AI is everything for boosting productivity in any area in the next decade: blockchain, bio, military, space, ESG etc... 

All Xi care is about winning the election next year to be Chairman for life and if he succeeds, he will have to stop the China property bubble right now and start restructuring the economy less depend on increase GDP number depends on building empty house as a  speculating  tokens. China innovations was based on private sector yet Xi is try to squeeze it because the bubble is in the private sector and Xi will need poor people to support him. That is the reason for  common prosperity theme nowadays which forces the private corporations to donate to the poor while the private sectors only around 35% of the economy (the housing bubble is not considered private sectors and it is need land from local government to develop), unlike in other developed countries with "tax the rich" theme because private sectors is about 60% of the economy.

Xi's double loop boosting export and domestic consumption goals conflict with each other. Export needs cheap labors to stay productivity per cost while Boosting domestic consumption depend on the household incomes increases in the middle class and the young middle class in China is locked with debt, just like the young middle class in Korea or US. Even top talents engineers in middle class are working in a 9 9 6 culture.

It is more likely China takes back Taiwan to make an excuse for the bubble collapse and consolidate Xi's power for life, betting on US too chaos with politics to help Taiwan, face a few years sanction and then bribing its way out of the sanction, promising cheap labor and big investment gain from "the dip" than China conquers the world with technology from catching up behind. The current theme of China will catch up with us around US and EU mainstream media is just for the stock price and bigger share in the  infrastructure stimulus after covid19, footed by middle class in the future. 

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(edited)

6 hours ago, SUZNV said:

Here is a good channel for comparing US vs China for most of the important things. This guy lived in China for 10 years and have a Chinese wife. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C9bAk_mhPIo

For chip industry China is lagging behind US, Taiwan and Korea and start lagging Japan and Europe since Trump banned some key parts of chip to China and Biden yet reversed the most important parts. And it is the infrastructure for everything in Industry 4.0  especially AI because it increases the capacity and scalability to handle and process big data cheaply to train for AI. And AI is everything for boosting productivity in any area in the next decade: blockchain, bio, military, space, ESG etc... 

All Xi care is about winning the election next year to be Chairman for life and if he succeeds, he will have to stop the China property bubble right now and start restructuring the economy less depend on increase GDP number depends on building empty house as a  speculating  tokens. China innovations was based on private sector yet Xi is try to squeeze it because the bubble is in the private sector and Xi will need poor people to support him. That is the reason for  common prosperity theme nowadays which forces the private corporations to donate to the poor while the private sectors only around 35% of the economy (the housing bubble is not considered private sectors and it is need land from local government to develop), unlike in other developed countries with "tax the rich" theme because private sectors is about 60% of the economy.

Xi's double loop boosting export and domestic consumption goals conflict with each other. Export needs cheap labors to stay productivity per cost while Boosting domestic consumption depend on the household incomes increases in the middle class and the young middle class in China is locked with debt, just like the young middle class in Korea or US. Even top talents engineers in middle class are working in a 9 9 6 culture.

It is more likely China takes back Taiwan to make an excuse for the bubble collapse and consolidate Xi's power for life, betting on US too chaos with politics to help Taiwan, face a few years sanction and then bribing its way out of the sanction, promising cheap labor and big investment gain from "the dip" than China conquers the world with technology from catching up behind. The current theme of China will catch up with us around US and EU mainstream media is just for the stock price and bigger share in the  infrastructure stimulus after covid19, footed by middle class in the future. 

"This guy" was kicked out of China and is on a crusade. Ditto for his buddy Vincent.

The "parts" Trump stopped were the ARM chips. Nothing to do with AI and arguably more detrimental to the ARM architecture (which is the primary one for smartphones) than China in the long run (because there are fully Open Sources alternatives like RISC V) Ditto for stopping Android sales to Huawei. Huaweil handset business seems to have already recovered and Android got a new competitor.

Edited by Andrei Moutchkine
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On 10/28/2021 at 11:43 PM, nsdp said:

They no longer only steal. But in crucial areas their tech takes 16x the space and power to do the same job.

What "same job?" There is no real alternative for a lot of Huawei equipment. Cisco is pretty much fully immersed into their parts bin.

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(edited)

52 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

"This guy" was kicked out of China and is on a crusade. Ditto for his buddy Vincent.

The "parts" Trump stopped were the ARM chips. Nothing to do with AI and arguably more detrimental to the ARM architecture (which is the primary one for smartphones) than China in the long run (because there are fully Open Sources alternatives like RISC V) Ditto for stopping Android sales to Huawei. Huaweil seems to have already required and Android got a new competitor.

No,  the part Trump stopped is not the ARM chip but the euv-lithography which for 5nm-7nm chip, which can improve productivity of chip and smaller can condense more chip in less space. China is try to use the old version to shrink the semi conductor but not boost the productivity or future improvement would be harder and harder. 

ARM China robbed all of the patents from ARM and that is the big part in Nvidea acquisition deal with ARM.   But the best they can have the old ARM without any support. How many experienced engineers and capital need to update to an a better version. And the things most talent engineers need is both wealth and freedom, not a 9 9 6  so good luck with recruiting.

And in China, anyone  foreign talks bad about Xi will be kicked out, ditto. The ones who were singing for Xi would stay welcome so by your logic, the ones were not banned should not be given any credit either, along with the foreign investment banks in China, they just need foreign retail investors to hold  the bag.  

Edited by SUZNV

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24 minutes ago, SUZNV said:

No,  the part Trump stopped is not the ARM chip but the euv-lithography which for 5nm-7nm chip, which can improve productivity of chip and smaller can condense more chip in less space. China is try to use the old version to shrink the semi conductor but not boost the productivity or future improvement would be harder and harder. 

ARM China robbed all of the patents from ARM and that is the big part in Nvidea acquisition deal with ARM.   But the best they can have the old ARM without any support. How many experienced engineers and capital need to update to an a better version. And the things most talent engineers need is both wealth and freedom, not a 9 9 6  so good luck with recruiting.

And in China, anyone  foreign talks bad about Xi will be kicked out, ditto. The ones who were singing for Xi would stay welcome so by your logic, the ones were not banned should not be given any credit either, along with the foreign investment banks in China, they just need foreign retail investors to hold  the bag.  

EUV lithography is not really in full production. Only for critical bits. What does Trump got to say over technology that is not even American? (there is one Dutch and one Japanese provider, AFAIK)

ARM patents are beyond stale. All they own is the ISA. You are as confused as any American about there being any freedom in US. There is much advertising to the effect, but it is not really the same as having it.

I don't approve of the Chinese policy of sheltering their citizens. Russian one is better - let the citizens work up the resistance to the toxic Western media. Sheltering their citizenry like that was one of the most significant, if not most significant, contribution to the Soviet demise, IMHO.

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(edited)

China outperformed The US in Supercomputing. Since March 21 two Exascale Computer are working over there. The Chinese did not make a sound and hide that Computers. Not even registered them for No 1 at Supercomputing 500.

The are very quick about 8 times faster as US No 1 Oak Ridge Lab

3 times quicker as the Fugaku actual No 1 in Supercomputing

The fastest European solution is outperformed by  a factor 25

 

Not to mention from 500 Supercomputing solution near 200 are from China and about 120 from the USA.

Edited by Starschy

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6 minutes ago, Starschy said:

China outperformed The US in Supercomputing. Since March 21 two Exascale Computer are working over there. The Chinese did not make a sound and hide that Computers. Not even registered them for No 1 at Supercomputing 500.

The are very quick about 8 times faster as US No 1 Oak Ridge Lab

3 times quicker as the Fugaku actual No 1 in Supercomputing

The fastest European solution is outperformed by  a factor 25

 

Not to mention from 500 Supercomputing solution near 200 are from China and about 120 from the USA.

Top500 is a competition in government pork barrel, good for running supercomputing benchmarks and nothing else. All the practical supercomputers fit into a single box.

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10 hours ago, SUZNV said:

No,  the part Trump stopped is not the ARM chip but the euv-lithography which for 5nm-7nm chip, which can improve productivity of chip and smaller can condense more chip in less space. China is try to use the old version to shrink the semi conductor but not boost the productivity or future improvement would be harder and harder. 

ARM China robbed all of the patents from ARM and that is the big part in Nvidea acquisition deal with ARM.   But the best they can have the old ARM without any support. How many experienced engineers and capital need to update to an a better version. And the things most talent engineers need is both wealth and freedom, not a 9 9 6  so good luck with recruiting.

And in China, anyone  foreign talks bad about Xi will be kicked out, ditto. The ones who were singing for Xi would stay welcome so by your logic, the ones were not banned should not be given any credit either, along with the foreign investment banks in China, they just need foreign retail investors to hold  the bag.  

ARM is Open License just like linux so there were no patents to steal.

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