Looming European Gas Crisis in Winter and North African Factor - a must read by Cyril Widdershoven

[hemanthaa@mail.com + 64]

Cyril Widdershoven analyses the impact on the beleagured gas importers in Europe due to the brewing political crisis involving Algera, Morocco and Spain, something that the media has overlooked recently. A must read, indeed.

Please read it here:

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

Obviously Putin's work!

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,129]

3 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Obviously Putin's work!

Nah, must be those wiley Polish, Ukranians, and Norwegians.....

Can't be lack of planning and forethought!  Heavens no!

[Boat + 1,315]

44 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Nah, must be those wiley Polish, Ukranians, and Norwegians.....

Can't be lack of planning and forethought!  Heavens no!

So did Putin two years ago mention it would become Russian policy not to sell gas on the spot market so load up on your contracts now? Putin is a gangster, that’s not what gangsters do. 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

9 minutes ago, Boat said:

So did Putin two years ago mention it would become Russian policy not to sell gas on the spot market so load up on your contracts now? Putin is a gangster, that’s not what gangsters do. 

The Russian policy has always been in favor of long-term contracts, and so was everybody else's who is selling actual gas, as opposed to speculating on gas futures, err "investing in commodities"

[dukeNukem + 80]

8 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

The Russian policy has always been in favor of long-term contracts, and so was everybody else's who is selling actual gas, as opposed to speculating on gas futures, err "investing in commodities"

Surprisingly, but even most of US LNG sold under long-term contrats... Only small fraction going to sales on spot market

[dukeNukem + 80]

Simply put it this way - if you don't have long term contact signed, you could not get credit from bank to finance your LNG facility. 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

1 hour ago, dukeNukem said:

Surprisingly, but even most of US LNG sold under long-term contrats... Only small fraction going to sales on spot market

Also, with novel liquefy-or-pay clauses, where you have to pay for a time slot on liquefaction train whether you use it or not  

[Starschy + 211]

On 11/7/2021 at 1:20 PM, hemanthaa@mail.com said:

 

Cyril Widdershoven analyses the impact on the beleagured gas importers in Europe due to the brewing political crisis involving Algera, Morocco and Spain, something that the media has overlooked recently. A must read, indeed.

Please read it here:

The European impact is not big. About 10 Bio m3 go to Spain from Algeria and 8 Bio m3 go direct to Spain. Another 10 Bio go to Italy. At the moment only those 10 Bio m3 accros Morocco is the issue. There are enough Alternatives for Spain. In The midterm Spain should expand their Pipelines in size up to 25 Bio m3. Gazprom average  level. Gazprom by the way belongs 49% of the Algeria National Gas Companie.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

50 minutes ago, Starschy said:

The European impact is not big. About 10 Bio m3 go to Spain from Algeria and 8 Bio m3 go direct to Spain. Another 10 Bio go to Italy. At the moment only those 10 Bio m3 accros Morocco is the issue. There are enough Alternatives for Spain. In The midterm Spain should expand their Pipelines in size up to 25 Bio m3. Gazprom average  level. Gazprom by the way belongs 49% of the Algeria National Gas Companie.

I don't believe this

https://www.gazprom.com/projects/algeria/

need to buy more of their stock! It is not a stock ownership though, but a PSA on a particular gas field. Do they have other fields?

Edited November 8, 2021 by Andrei Moutchkine

[Tomasz + 1,608]

On 11/7/2021 at 7:57 PM, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Obviously Putin's work!

Well to be objective apart from share in algierian national gas producer I would also add that Algeria has been one of the world's largest buyers of Russian weapons for many years. And because Algieria has been pursuing such a policy for years, she has a very large amount of post-Soviet or Russian weapons in stock, which she must after all service.

I recommend the case of my Poland and our as always very clever Polish strategists who thought that the entire NATO post-Soviet Mig-29 would be renovated without a license from Russia in Poland.

The result is that polish 40 MIG-29 are slowly dying from the lack of parts for undertaking such activities without the manufacturer's license.

So I know that it was supposed to be satirical on the basis of arguments such as "ad Putinum" (new version of ad Hitlerum) or "Russia did it" but sorry for our Russian colleague Russia is not a most powerful country in Africa  but in Algeria, Russia has a powerful influence,

Check it out https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algerian_People's_National_Army

Quote

 

The armed forces comprise:

Algerian Land Forces (270,000 in 2012), operating T-90S tanks, and other vehicles, as well as Iskander-E ballistic missiles. Their standard issue rifle is a Chinese variant of the AK-47/AKM.

Algerian National Navy (MRA) (est. 30,000 in 2012), operating MEKO A200 frigates, Kilo-class submarines, heavy C-28A stealth corvettes and other vessels.

Algerian Air Force (AAF) (14,000 in 2012, this figure included AD numbers), operating Su-30MKAs, MiG-25, MiG-29 and other aircraft.

Territorial Air Defence Forces (Defense aerienne du territoire) (8,000 in 2012) (3 brigades, 3 regiments with SA-2/3/6/20, 725 AA guns) 8 system S-300 (missile), 4 system S-400 (missile), 24 batteries tor M2, 108 Pantsir-S1/SM and 48 Buk M2. 40 SA-6 were reported in service in 2012.[21][22][23]

 

If you dont know about 90 % of military equipment mentioned above are postsoviet or russian origin.

Although, frankly speaking, looking at what a disgrace ultimately turned out to be the entire Russiagate and Russia's alleged great support for Trump's election, it's just a final laugh for our Russian colleague. And score points all the time because this was a total bulshit.

Well, I would like to remind you that Trump was allegly a Russian agent to make Russia great again.

And common knowledge was that everyone in the Kremlin was allegedly afraid of the terrible Biden, which will not be a Russian agent and will impose such sanctions that the world has not seen yet, that it is a piece of cake in a case against Iran.

Perhaps it would be so if, by a miraculous twist of fate for America, the People's Republic of China suddenly disappeared from the map.

But since China is getting stronger and the US can see that time is not working in their favor, the CIA chief is coming to Moscow and no sanctions are planned for the time being.

If yu are sensible man please dont watch Rachel Maddow but read some open letters from last year. I such 2 of them and especially list of supporters to know whats really going on.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/05/open-letter-russia-policy-391434

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/09/25/russia-open-letters-rebuttal-421546

I would say that a lot of people signed these lists, people who are not the least significant in the USA. Well, but if someone expected the terrible Biden who would finally bring Russia to its knees, then, in general, there are people who are often affiliated with the Democratic Party in total.

One of the points of contention is Ukraine. At the moment, there is no gas and coal, and President Zelenskiy is fighting against Akhmetov in Ukraine (richest oligarch in Ukraine).

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5064948 - current relations between Biden and Putin. Because it was not argumentum ad Putinum but Trump was main problem for establishment in USA not Putin.

 

 

Edited November 10, 2021 by Tomasz

[Tomasz + 1,608]

How Russiagate looks like after 20 January 2021. How it started. How its going.
Standing ovation for liberal press (because Russia Today could published something similiar today)

https://nypost.com/2021/11/04/the-real-collusion-was-the-creation-of-russiagate-out-of-absolutely-nothing/

 

[Tomasz + 1,608]

China will partially finance the Power of Syberia II. They  did not finance first line after 2014, but now, after the global energy crisi especially acute in China, they are more determined that this gas from Russia should flow to them.

Simple alternative for Chinese goverment - addition 50 bilion cubic meters by pipeline from Russia or LNG by sea (dominated by US NAVY and supplied in part by US)?

Thats gonna be a gamechanger in late 20s early 30s.

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5064914

 

[nsdp + 449]

1 hour ago, Tomasz said:

Well to be objective apart from share in algierian national gas producer I would also add that Algeria has been one of the world's largest buyers of Russian weapons for many years. And because Algieria has been pursuing such a policy for years, she has a very large amount of post-Soviet or Russian weapons in stock, which she must after all service.

I recommend the case of my Poland and our as always very clever Polish strategists who thought that the entire NATO post-Soviet Mig-29 would be renovated without a license from Russia in Poland.

The result is that polish 40 MIG-29 are slowly dying from the lack of parts for undertaking such activities without the manufacturer's license.

So I know that it was supposed to be satirical on the basis of arguments such as "ad Putinum" (new version of ad Hitlerum) or "Russia did it" but sorry for our Russian colleague Russia is not a most powerful country in Africa  but in Algeria, Russia has a powerful influence,

Check it out https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algerian_People's_National_Army

If you dont know about 90 % of military equipment mentioned above are postsoviet or russian origin.

Although, frankly speaking, looking at what a disgrace ultimately turned out to be the entire Russiagate and Russia's alleged great support for Trump's election, it's just a final laugh for our Russian colleague. And score points all the time because this was a total bulshit.

Well, I would like to remind you that Trump was allegly a Russian agent to make Russia great again.

And common knowledge was that everyone in the Kremlin was allegedly afraid of the terrible Biden, which will not be a Russian agent and will impose such sanctions that the world has not seen yet, that it is a piece of cake in a case against Iran.

Perhaps it would be so if, by a miraculous twist of fate for America, the People's Republic of China suddenly disappeared from the map.

But since China is getting stronger and the US can see that time is not working in their favor, the CIA chief is coming to Moscow and no sanctions are planned for the time being.

If yu are sensible man please dont watch Rachel Maddow but read some open letters from last year. I such 2 of them and especially list of supporters to know whats really going on.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/05/open-letter-russia-policy-391434

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/09/25/russia-open-letters-rebuttal-421546

I would say that a lot of people signed these lists, people who are not the least significant in the USA. Well, but if someone expected the terrible Biden who would finally bring Russia to its knees, then, in general, there are people who are often affiliated with the Democratic Party in total.

One of the points of conten tinvolved n. he full faacts are knowtion is Ukraine. At the moment, there is no gas and coal, and President Zelenskiy is fighting against Akhmetov in Ukraine (richest oligarch in Ukraine).

https://www.kommersas hisnt.ru/doc/5064948 - current relations between Biden and Putin. Because it was not argumentum ad Putinum but Trump was main problem for establishment in USA not Putin.

 

 

I am not sure that all is known in Russia gate yet.  A Russian intelligence officer made the mistake of entering Poland and was extradicted over the weekend.  He's now awaiting transportion  to the US.

Igor Danchenko is his name.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

4 hours ago, Tomasz said:

How Russiagate looks like after 20 January 2021. How it started. How its going.
Standing ovation for liberal press (because Russia Today could published something similiar today)

https://nypost.com/2021/11/04/the-real-collusion-was-the-creation-of-russiagate-out-of-absolutely-nothing/

 

Some officially designated fact checkers consider NY Post to be a fringe publication which is wrong 100% of the time

https://www.politifact.com/personalities/new-york-post/

As if it was the Onion or Babylon Bee, but without being funny

A fairer one

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/new-york-post/

which I interpret as a penchant for sensationalism

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

On 11/10/2021 at 5:03 AM, nsdp said:

I am not sure that all is known in Russia gate yet.  A Russian intelligence officer made the mistake of entering Poland and was extradicted over the weekend.  He's now awaiting transportion  to the US.

Igor Danchenko is his name.

Very well and since forever. It is about time. This guy was never a Russian intelligence analyst, but the fellow who was supposed to be the one Steele let ghost-write his "dossier" for him

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/04/us/politics/igor-danchenko-arrested-steele-dossier.html

I know what will happen next. Turns out, Danchenko outsourced the job further downstream to some girl from Perm who was his high-school mate. Who simply made everything up. For example.

Cohen has never actually been to Prague. Russia never had a consulate in Miami. Trump, being the troll he is, constantly professed his love for Russia and Putin because that happens to be one country he never had a business relation with. Unlike the Clintons, who didn't hesitate to preemptively accuse Trump of everything they were themselves guilty of. You can see the preemptive framing scheme actually being discussed in the leaked DNRC emails (officially, extracted by Russian hackers, a whole separate pile of steaming BS)

So, if there never was an interference into 2016 election, when can Russia expect excuses, hugs and compensation for economic damage due to sanctions? Rhetorical question, of course.

Edited November 22, 2021 by Andrei Moutchkine

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,129]

6 hours ago, Tomasz said:

Well to be objective

I recommend the case of my Poland and our as always very clever Polish strategists who thought that the entire NATO post-Soviet Mig-29 would be renovated without a license from Russia in Poland.

The result is that polish 40 MIG-29 are slowly dying from the lack of parts for undertaking such activities without the manufacturer's license.

 

Either I read opposite, or the simple fact that EVERYONE's Mig-29's are all dying around the world in very short number of hours and being ditched left and right for F16's.  Has nothing to do with the Polish.  When many are actually buying up old Mig 21's while ditching MIG29's says all you need to know about that crap aircraft. 

Looks really sweet though.  Best looking 70's/80's aircraft around IMO. 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

5 hours ago, Tomasz said:

Well to be objective apart from share in algierian national gas producer I would also add that Algeria has been one of the world's largest buyers of Russian weapons for many years. And because Algieria has been pursuing such a policy for years, she has a very large amount of post-Soviet or Russian weapons in stock, which she must after all service.

I recommend the case of my Poland and our as always very clever Polish strategists who thought that the entire NATO post-Soviet Mig-29 would be renovated without a license from Russia in Poland.

The result is that polish 40 MIG-29 are slowly dying from the lack of parts for undertaking such activities without the manufacturer's license.

So I know that it was supposed to be satirical on the basis of arguments such as "ad Putinum" (new version of ad Hitlerum) or "Russia did it" but sorry for our Russian colleague Russia is not a most powerful country in Africa  but in Algeria, Russia has a powerful influence,

Check it out https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algerian_People's_National_Army

If you dont know about 90 % of military equipment mentioned above are postsoviet or russian origin.

Although, frankly speaking, looking at what a disgrace ultimately turned out to be the entire Russiagate and Russia's alleged great support for Trump's election, it's just a final laugh for our Russian colleague. And score points all the time because this was a total bulshit.

Well, I would like to remind you that Trump was allegly a Russian agent to make Russia great again.

And common knowledge was that everyone in the Kremlin was allegedly afraid of the terrible Biden, which will not be a Russian agent and will impose such sanctions that the world has not seen yet, that it is a piece of cake in a case against Iran.

Perhaps it would be so if, by a miraculous twist of fate for America, the People's Republic of China suddenly disappeared from the map.

But since China is getting stronger and the US can see that time is not working in their favor, the CIA chief is coming to Moscow and no sanctions are planned for the time being.

If yu are sensible man please dont watch Rachel Maddow but read some open letters from last year. I such 2 of them and especially list of supporters to know whats really going on.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/05/open-letter-russia-policy-391434

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/09/25/russia-open-letters-rebuttal-421546

I would say that a lot of people signed these lists, people who are not the least significant in the USA. Well, but if someone expected the terrible Biden who would finally bring Russia to its knees, then, in general, there are people who are often affiliated with the Democratic Party in total.

One of the points of contention is Ukraine. At the moment, there is no gas and coal, and President Zelenskiy is fighting against Akhmetov in Ukraine (richest oligarch in Ukraine).

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5064948 - current relations between Biden and Putin. Because it was not argumentum ad Putinum but Trump was main problem for establishment in USA not Putin.

 

 

Well, I didn't know about the Algerians being in bed with Gazprom when I wrote what I wrote.

I am well aware of the fact of Algerian's equipment being brand spanking new. The way I saw it the actual product was making sure they aren't gonna unleash it on Moroccan ass.The current conflict was actually precipitated by ever mischievous Donald, who got the US to recognize the Maroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. This is a big deal. The strange fellows populating the trenches at the beachfront there happen to have a right to self-determination officially recognized by UN and are card carrying members of the Socialist International, i.e. residual incorrigible Commies who actually believed in that stuff. As such, they can pull some strings.

Case in point is the incident of the

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_3

A German research aircraft on its way to Antarctica so it could measure some important magnetic and gravitational field, which the Polisario downed. Upon which, did Polisario successfully argue that shooting a very similarly equipped Dornier 228 planes is routine, because Marocco (and Belgium) mods them for ELINT. Which is very similar to a scientific craft measuring important German fields. This caused Germany to eventually blame the incident on Marocco and halting sales of Dornier 228s to them, so they won't mod them for ELINT, even though they did not recognize Polisario's claim to Western Sahara.

You can't blame your ability or inability to build and mountain your equipment on anybody but yourself. The service manuals were available. Here an example of role reversal

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ropucha-class_landing_ship

Those were build in Poland, not USSR. How come Russia can maintain theirs (and supposedly build more) and Poland cannot (you've got only one left and it gets beached all the time)

Dunno what is up with Mig-29. You should be able to get much better engines for them, if you don't want vectored trust which you haven't had before.

Did you know that Poland inherited the entire global market for T-72 upgrades post 2014. (which means to any T-90 spec and beyond) So far, an excellent job for Malaysia (actually, not really based on your PT-91, whatever it is, but on standard Renk parts) Before 2014 the plan was to accept the Russians into the global cartel of arms manufacturers at 1/3 share. There will be teams of 3 vendors "competitively bidding" on old tanks upgrade project in the 3rd world. The "winning team" will always have 2 Western vendors, one of whom will be the lead and one Russian. One of vendors on the team will provide a crap part rendering the tank effectively inoperable, especially in combat against 1st and 2nd world powers. All the good parts are to be sourced from Ukrainian T-84 or somewhere in US (with some caveats) leading to two kinds of tanks being perpetually available for upgrade. Old Leos and imitations thereof/ And "T-72" So, perversely, you are now shipping better, more serviceable tanks to Malaysia than you make for yourself. Because you are getting into old Leo business (those are workable, but only if you  intend to be as anal-retentive about various obnoxiously square ideas as the Leo themselves) and M1 (imitation Leo, which I reckon disable by strategically placed small magnet) By now, should every Slavic peasant understand the limitations of obnoxiously square Nazi engineering. Did I run my test by you already? How many Polish potatoes does it take to disable a King Tiger?

You already showed me the "open letters" I see neither novelty nor significance in them. The only potential observation of use is just how little they intend to give in what some of them consider a suitable rapprochement plan and other consider appeasement. Meanwhile, in Russia, nobody cares anymore what either fraction thinks. What made you think I was watching Rachel Maddow? She's got no new content. If she ever does, I'll be alerted through Jimmy Dore making fun of it.

I don't share your excitement about the Kommersant article. It is business as usual. Looks like business as usual. The shop talk between serious disbarment and cyber crime experts never stopped. They all know each and got Twitter account. There are hardly any secrets involved. Typical of upbeat flak close to the MFA. Full of young, upwardly mobile individuals elaborated with the West and begging for reprieve. Traditionally, they would offer the Yankees various gestures of goodwill which they don't really need. Fortunately for us, not this time. Read the interview with this guy

https://valdaiclub.com/about/experts/4504/

https://russiancouncil.ru/en/evgeniy-buzhinskiy/

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/interview-retired-russian-general-evgeny-buzhinsky-25213

So, the Russian military now has an embedded diplomatic corps, making sure the Americans don't get something for nothing ever again. I actually met this guy briefly when he was still a colonel who was part of the team negotiating START. He reckoned he'll never make a general, because he never held a filed command. Look at him now, a lieutenant general. So this activity now counts as acceptable form of warfare, I take it?

Ukrainians are obviously being provoked into attacking LDNR or something equally stupid. At the same time, another faction seems to be trying fairly hard to avert this. The prevalent opinion inside Russia is that Brandon is really not in a state of sound mind and various covert fractions in US Deep State are fighting for the dibs to the remote control. Alternate opinion of my own is that the hawkish fraction might actually be based in UK. In any event, I don't seem much of a difference between the current administration and Trumps, but rhetoric. They seem to be continuing with all the BS Tramp started, for example treating China as if it was the enemy of the free world #1. The same sort of role reversal with respect to USSR (from saviors of Europe to its alleged bane) took 40 years. Somebody ought to explain to the good burghers of Luxenburg how they can meaningfully contribute to "containing the Chinese aggression" in the South China Sea. I think Lithuania is actually trying, so we've got a guinea pig. The other one is obviously Australia.

Now, the rationale for the hawkish fraction to demand war is sitting pretty on all chairs. Should Kiev beat up LDNR, they can take credit for superior Western training and advice as high quality Wunderwaffel only the West has for sale. Should Kiev lose, it was a disposable item anyway. Possible a good probable cause to demand more total sanctions on Russia. The downside is that there are no obvious sanctions left that they did not already prescribe. The Western Wunderwaffel might turn out to be a dud, as it was in Georgia. Tons of useful trinkets out of that campaign, like NATO-spec encrypted military radios mounted on Humvees. Also looks stupid if nobody ends up hurt, as was the case in Poroshenko's run for the Kerch Strait.

My understanding of the dove fraction is much worse. Under normal circumstances is US willing to negotiate only when they seriously think they are gonna lose. Which they usually don't, even when they should. I don't think like Russia is winning anything of late. Both sides dug in for what looks like a long fight. So, what is new? The visit of the CIA chief Burns is different. How so? First of all, this

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/08/politics/bill-burns-cia-putin-moscow/index.html

a serious breach of protocol. Usually, only a head of state calls another head of state. Yet, the Russians confirmed it. While meeting in Moscow, Burns and Patrushev obviously ran out of scope of security / intelligence issues and had to call Pu. What could it be? Note that Burns was previously an ambassador to Moscow and is generally received favorably there. Like an inverse Pompeo. Also note that the original Russian release originally contained one non-informative paragraph and claimed the meeting took place in New Delhi. This suggests (as noted by theDuran) that both tidbits were likely minor leaks exchanged tit-for-tat. As in neither the existence of the meeting, nor the direct participation of the Pu were supposed to be public knowledge. So, the Russian intelligence people worrying so much about appearances is new to me. Because, in the olden days, whenever USA and USSR had a tussle in the ensuing aftermath did USA always go after the perceptual benefits of looking good, whereas USSR preferred tangible results in exchange for keeping their mouth shut. The best known example of this is the so-called "Cuban missile crisis" where beautiful JFK got to bask in the glory of having prevailed over the brutish Khrushov. On the other hand, there was never really such a thing as a Cuban missile crisis. On the other hand, there was arguably never such a thing as a Cuban missile crisis, but a Turkish one, so Khrushov got something for nothing.

As far as Yankees are concerned, they are still angling for a publicity boost. Even though they are intelligence spooks. Did you know that the procession of various ranking intelligence agents was supposed to come to Moscow headed by Kerry, with the topic to discuss being climate change? Russia put everybody not related to climate policy on its sanctioned entities list, which left Kerry pretty much alone. Presumably, the second try was to send Vicky Nuland for cover, presumable on the account of  her having impeccable credentials as an enemy of Russia. Dunno how many spooks she brought.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

1 hour ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Either I read opposite, or the simple fact that EVERYONE's Mig-29's are all dying around the world in very short number of hours and being ditched left and right for F16's.  Has nothing to do with the Polish.  When many are actually buying up old Mig 21's while ditching MIG29's says all you need to know about that crap aircraft. 

Looks really sweet though.  Best looking 70's/80's aircraft around IMO. 

Not convinced. Speaking of the Mig 21. How come so many countries build upgrades for them? Some locally produced, some licensed, some cloned. The Chinese are working the upgrade market and so are the Israelis. What is up with that?

I'd venture to say that on the high end, did Mig-29 lose to the Su-27. It is only insignificantly cheaper, but cannot compete with on range and payload. Heavy fighters won. This should be even more apparent when comparing the F-16 and F-15, if the first wasn't so oversold. In many people opinions, is having only one engine a bad, bad idea. With the engine being the most expensive and fragile part, pretty cheap.

Mig-29 started off where Mig-21, at some 4t max payload. As the time went by, it has more than doubled, but only because there is only as much upgrades as you can do to a single engine aircraft.

I would guess that the F-16s are available to morons of the bunch? Switzerland claims they got F-35s offered for less. Not really a replacement for F-22, but some kind of progress maybe?

Now, on the lower end, the Mig's are being squeezed out by those older aircraft. Now, why exactly are those crap? You can safely expect better Gen 2+ aircraft to perform up to modern standards in terms of the air frame. The problem is upgrading the weapons suite and avionics to the latest spec, while OEMs try to nudge in direction of buying a whole new aircraft. Here is an archival document linked off here

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mikoyan-Gurevich_MiG-21#Egyptian–Syrian–Israeli_conflicts

It is a novelty for me that English language Wiki describes the incidents as anything but total Israeli domination. We'll look at the latest engagement between Migs and Israelis, who already did have some Gen 4 US aircraft, like F-16 and F-15 during 1982 Lebanon war.

It is in Russian. You are welcome to feed it to translation engine of your choice, if you seriously intend to read the whole thing. Here

https://web.archive.org/web/20160415191548/http://www.waronline.org/IDF/Articles/lebanon-losses.htm

Or I give you the summary. The bulk of the document goes on to demonstrate how all the sources lie, which I don't agree with. Nobody lies like Semites, regardless which ones

Syrian claim: 7 lost, 47 killed

Israeli claim: 0 lost, 86 killed

Soviet internal reports: Syrians lost  66 to Israeli aircraft, Israeli lost 42, including 6 F-16s and 5 F-15s.

American propaganda simply picked up the Israeli claims and rebroadcasted it as a total ownage by Israel, which ignores the rest of the local lore. In which, the Israeli do not generally dispute fetching a few missiles. Only then, as by a miracle of Adenai, were Israeli boys capable to limp back home, while having one engine, one wing and burning. Oh, and the plane does not count as a write-off in this case.

Now, lets look into some of the more interesting details.

The Soviet experts observe the highest scoring Syrian jet being the Mig-23, a generation 3 aircraft best described as Soviet take on F-111. They reckon that the only thing that preventing it from being best overall for campaign is an inferiority of Soviet long range missile to US Sparrow. It only had 1/3 a range and cornered less hard. USA never neglected the opportunity to drum up a total superiority of its weapons that are totally BVOL and no-escape. You know how much that was? 33 km, 8g. Bwahaha? So, a pilot could actually manually outcrank it (because a trained human would black out at around 9g) This weapon would do nothing much today, because the autopilot will engage and crank harder than 9g in this case, letting the pilot pass out for while.

OK, now the potential exceptional case was the new R-60 missile which could only be launched by the Mig-21bis variant, 2nd highest scoring plane. On paper, it was about the same as its US equivalent (early version of the Sidewinder) but actually scored more. Which the Soviet experts attributed to the availability of preliminary target selection for the missile, which no Israeli aircraft had. What what? A field upgraded 1959 aircraft featured superior targeting firmware to the latest US aircraft of 1982? Not exceptionally impossible you could do something like this today, too.

The Soviets experts also noted, that the R-60 missile turned out to be too wimpy of warhead (at 3.5kg) to take out an F-15 from the back. All it would do is take out one engine. So, there is some truth to stories of miraculous survivals of Israeli boys. But only if they flew an F-15. The Soviets experts said no way in hell an F-16 would survive anything like that. Moreover 

As Mr. Tupolev once said, only beautiful machines fly (and proceeded to produce some of the ugliest ones around) So, let me redefine this. What you perceive as beauty is danger. Grace of an efficient predator. Most people find tigers and lions and bears as very cuddly and cute and feel like hugging them. How come?

At a deeper level, you are seeing mathematics manifest in motion, as a closed form solution of Zhukovsky integral (really, integral of integrals of those things)

https://complex-analysis.com/content/joukowsky_airfoil.html

(it is an interactive applet you can play with) Backgrounder

https://sites.math.washington.edu/~morrow/336_13/papers/thomas.pdf

Simplified, you are seeing a nifty calculus proof. It flies because it is proven to. As a downside, it is not always possible (some things don't fly) As an upside, you might actually be able to do it using paper and pencil. With the Soviet people being backward and not having access to PC computers, a must.

When you are looking at a US airplane, you don't really see an aircraft that flies (whether it does or not remains unknown) Rather, it engages in computational fluid dynamics. After all, it was made by the tour-de-force of American scientific computational hardware - Intel 8087 compressor (which is built-in these days) If you take a closer look at various go-fast GPU-derived vector hardware, they are might fast. But are not too good with numbers. They may produce Teraflops of computational benchmarks like specfp32 (32-bit single precision float) or specfp (64-bit double precision float) There is unlikely to be support for 128 quad. Because that would cut the Teraflops by another 1/2! So, for the time being, the king of scientific computation remains Intel, with its proprietary IEEE 754 float implementation that is 80-bit long. An obvious win for capitalism, giving American peoples choices we never had. They can have their computational simulations more fast or more correct.

Don't get me wrong. This is eventually a winning concept. If you fling something hard enough, it will outrun the retribution for aerodynamic wrongs. In US, that be the F-22. The only post-stall supermaneuvrable aircraft in US arsenal which can do all the Russian tricks. It's likely got a shorter takeoff than Navy F-35C (so does the Su-57) If you want it to replace the VTOL one (was it the F-35B) you simply launch it vertically upward, like a missile. The Space Shuttle developed trust:weight of 1.5 at takeoff. The most advanced jets are almost there yet. Why would you go back to the underpowered F-35 after that? One engine bad, two good.

Now, check out the latest Russian trick, tentatively named flat stall

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=61eJ7hoZhKY

The Russian word for airframe is the same as paper airplane. If you cut out the engines and electronics, it is suppose to gracefully glide (will possibly spiral around its axis though) This is next level beets, a discarded autumn leaf. Now, do you reckon you'll get much success hanging on this guy's tail?

Now you can believe me that tailgating somebody and shooting cannons still does stuff based on the analogy of 1982 campaign. USA was already claiming that dogfighting doesn't do anything anymore. Yet, they did and some aircraft were taken out by autocannons.

Alternatively, I can try my chops at traditional Yankee art of used car salesmanship and try to convince you that what I've got is exactly what you were looking for. According to Lockheed Martin, does their aircraft exemplify the way to the future, exemplified by its totally superior constant RCS equatable to a golf ball. Which is order of magnitude better than anybody else (like pumpkin-sized? That doesn't sound too bad) Now, lets suppose that Lockheed was truthful with us and told us exactly the RCS we need to filter for. Great, we are looking for golf ball sized objects flying at close to speed of sound or slightly above. Those tend to be few and far between. Sheesh, even the traffic police have Doppler radar these days.

Now, now why don't the Russians see the light at reposition the Su-57 as an aircraft built to present the potential opponent on your back with the spot where your RCS looks best. Which happens to be the frontal projection, same altitude. This  way, you don't have to worry about your RCS sampled from above or below, where there is simply a larger surface of bigger RCS? Thus, there is still, an advantage to meeting your opponent head-on, even if it is not for dogfighting, but impressing them with superior RCS, right? I believe the technical term for all of those things is "nose authority"

As far as when somebody is already on aircraft's tail, would somebody care to explain what is stealth about it. Are contrails good for RCS? I mean somebody may be able to use those to tell what kind of aircraft went by and when for hours afterwards.

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,129]

9 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Not convinced. Speaking of the Mig 21. How come so many countries build upgrades for them? Some locally produced, some licensed, some cloned. The Chinese are working the upgrade market and so are the Israelis. What is up with that?

I'd venture to say that on the high end, did Mig-29 lose to the Su-27. It is only insignificantly cheaper, but cannot compete with on range and payload. Heavy fighters won. This should be even more apparent when comparing the F-16 and F-15, if the first wasn't so oversold. In many people opinions, is having only one engine a bad, bad idea. With the engine being the most expensive and fragile part, pretty cheap.

Mig-29 started off where Mig-21, at some 4t max payload. As the time went by, it has more than doubled, but only because there is only as much upgrades as you can do to a single engine aircraft.

I would guess that the F-16s are available to morons of the bunch? Switzerland claims they got F-35s offered for less. Not really a replacement for F-22, but some kind of progress maybe?

Now, on the lower end, the Mig's are being squeezed out by those older aircraft. Now, why exactly are those crap? You can safely expect better Gen 2+ aircraft to perform up to modern standards in terms of the air frame. The problem is upgrading the weapons suite and avionics to the latest spec, while OEMs try to nudge in direction of buying a whole new aircraft. Here is an archival document linked off here

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mikoyan-Gurevich_MiG-21#Egyptian–Syrian–Israeli_conflicts

It is a novelty for me that English language Wiki describes the incidents as anything but total Israeli domination. We'll look at the latest engagement between Migs and Israelis, who already did have some Gen 4 US aircraft, like F-16 and F-15 during 1982 Lebanon war.

It is in Russian. You are welcome to feed it to translation engine of your choice, if you seriously intend to read the whole thing. Here

https://web.archive.org/web/20160415191548/http://www.waronline.org/IDF/Articles/lebanon-losses.htm

Or I give you the summary. The bulk of the document goes on to demonstrate how all the sources lie, which I don't agree with. Nobody lies like Semites, regardless which ones

Syrian claim: 7 lost, 47 killed

Israeli claim: 0 lost, 86 killed

Soviet internal reports: Syrians lost  66 to Israeli aircraft, Israeli lost 42, including 6 F-16s and 5 F-15s.

American propaganda simply picked up the Israeli claims and rebroadcasted it as a total ownage by Israel, which ignores the rest of the local lore. In which, the Israeli do not generally dispute fetching a few missiles. Only then, as by a miracle of Adenai, were Israeli boys capable to limp back home, while having one engine, one wing and burning. Oh, and the plane does not count as a write-off in this case.

Now, lets look into some of the more interesting details.

The Soviet experts observe the highest scoring Syrian jet being the Mig-23, a generation 3 aircraft best described as Soviet take on F-111. They reckon that the only thing that preventing it from being best overall for campaign is an inferiority of Soviet long range missile to US Sparrow. It only had 1/3 a range and cornered less hard. USA never neglected the opportunity to drum up a total superiority of its weapons that are totally BVOL and no-escape. You know how much that was? 33 km, 8g. Bwahaha? So, a pilot could actually manually outcrank it (because a trained human would black out at around 9g) This weapon would do nothing much today, because the autopilot will engage and crank harder than 9g in this case, letting the pilot pass out for while.

OK, now the potential exceptional case was the new R-60 missile which could only be launched by the Mig-21bis variant, 2nd highest scoring plane. On paper, it was about the same as its US equivalent (early version of the Sidewinder) but actually scored more. Which the Soviet experts attributed to the availability of preliminary target selection for the missile, which no Israeli aircraft had. What what? A field upgraded 1959 aircraft featured superior targeting firmware to the latest US aircraft of 1982? Not exceptionally impossible you could do something like this today, too.

The Soviets experts also noted, that the R-60 missile turned out to be too wimpy of warhead (at 3.5kg) to take out an F-15 from the back. All it would do is take out one engine. So, there is some truth to stories of miraculous survivals of Israeli boys. But only if they flew an F-15. The Soviets experts said no way in hell an F-16 would survive anything like that. Moreover 

As Mr. Tupolev once said, only beautiful machines fly (and proceeded to produce some of the ugliest ones around) So, let me redefine this. What you perceive as beauty is danger. Grace of an efficient predator. Most people find tigers and lions and bears as very cuddly and cute and feel like hugging them. How come?

At a deeper level, you are seeing mathematics manifest in motion, as a closed form solution of Zhukovsky integral (really, integral of integrals of those things)

https://complex-analysis.com/content/joukowsky_airfoil.html

(it is an interactive applet you can play with) Backgrounder

https://sites.math.washington.edu/~morrow/336_13/papers/thomas.pdf

Simplified, you are seeing a nifty calculus proof. It flies because it is proven to. As a downside, it is not always possible (some things don't fly) As an upside, you might actually be able to do it using paper and pencil. With the Soviet people being backward and not having access to PC computers, a must.

When you are looking at a US airplane, you don't really see an aircraft that flies (whether it does or not remains unknown) Rather, it engages in computational fluid dynamics. After all, it was made by the tour-de-force of American scientific computational hardware - Intel 8087 compressor (which is built-in these days) If you take a closer look at various go-fast GPU-derived vector hardware, they are might fast. But are not too good with numbers. They may produce Teraflops of computational benchmarks like specfp32 (32-bit single precision float) or specfp (64-bit double precision float) There is unlikely to be support for 128 quad. Because that would cut the Teraflops by another 1/2! So, for the time being, the king of scientific computation remains Intel, with its proprietary IEEE 754 float implementation that is 80-bit long. An obvious win for capitalism, giving American peoples choices we never had. They can have their computational simulations more fast or more correct.

Don't get me wrong. This is eventually a winning concept. If you fling something hard enough, it will outrun the retribution for aerodynamic wrongs. In US, that be the F-22. The only post-stall supermaneuvrable aircraft in US arsenal which can do all the Russian tricks. It's likely got a shorter takeoff than Navy F-35C (so does the Su-57) If you want it to replace the VTOL one (was it the F-35B) you simply launch it vertically upward, like a missile. The Space Shuttle developed trust:weight of 1.5 at takeoff. The most advanced jets are almost there yet. Why would you go back to the underpowered F-35 after that? One engine bad, two good.

Now, check out the latest Russian trick, tentatively named flat stall

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=61eJ7hoZhKY

The Russian word for airframe is the same as paper airplane. If you cut out the engines and electronics, it is suppose to gracefully glide (will possibly spiral around its axis though) This is next level beets, a discarded autumn leaf. Now, do you reckon you'll get much success hanging on this guy's tail?

Now you can believe me that tailgating somebody and shooting cannons still does stuff based on the analogy of 1982 campaign. USA was already claiming that dogfighting doesn't do anything anymore. Yet, they did and some aircraft were taken out by autocannons.

Alternatively, I can try my chops at traditional Yankee art of used car salesmanship and try to convince you that what I've got is exactly what you were looking for. According to Lockheed Martin, does their aircraft exemplify the way to the future, exemplified by its totally superior constant RCS equatable to a golf ball. Which is order of magnitude better than anybody else (like pumpkin-sized? That doesn't sound too bad) Now, lets suppose that Lockheed was truthful with us and told us exactly the RCS we need to filter for. Great, we are looking for golf ball sized objects flying at close to speed of sound or slightly above. Those tend to be few and far between. Sheesh, even the traffic police have Doppler radar these days.

Now, now why don't the Russians see the light at reposition the Su-57 as an aircraft built to present the potential opponent on your back with the spot where your RCS looks best. Which happens to be the frontal projection, same altitude. This  way, you don't have to worry about your RCS sampled from above or below, where there is simply a larger surface of bigger RCS? Thus, there is still, an advantage to meeting your opponent head-on, even if it is not for dogfighting, but impressing them with superior RCS, right? I believe the technical term for all of those things is "nose authority"

As far as when somebody is already on aircraft's tail, would somebody care to explain what is stealth about it. Are contrails good for RCS? I mean somebody may be able to use those to tell what kind of aircraft went by and when for hours afterwards.

English translation issues.  Mig29 number of flight hours before retirement makes it airframe trash, not its technical abilities. 

PS: appears you have zero idea what RADAR return means...

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

16 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

English translation issues.  Mig29 number of flight hours before retirement makes it airframe trash, not its technical abilities. 

PS: appears you have zero idea what RADAR return means...

And you have non-zero idea about number of flight hours? No Russian airframe is really trash. I've seen some making such claims about the engine, but never the air frame.

It means the same as radar, only spelled in all caps?

[Boat + 1,315]

Should Germany allow only spot prices at $3 and under for the new Nordstream2 pipeline? Would this send the right message not to mess with Ukraine and Europe?  Trade policy should be designed to take the teeth out of the bear. Call it an intervention in response for bad bear behavior. 🤣

Edited November 11, 2021 by Boat

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,129]

2 hours ago, Boat said:

Should Germany allow only spot prices at $3 and under for the new Nordstream2 pipeline? Would this send the right message not to mess with Ukraine and Europe?  Trade policy should be designed to take the teeth out of the bear. Call it an intervention in response for bad bear behavior. 🤣

And Why would Russia sell gas to them for that price when they KNOW importing from say USA or Gulf via LNG is 2X or higher?

[Boat + 1,315]

Why should they. This is the driver to go electric. FF just comes with to many expensive issues. 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,129]

2 minutes ago, Boat said:

Why should they. This is the driver to go electric. FF just comes with to many expensive issues. 

Ah, the nutter response... Dear genius and WHERE exactly will said vehicles get their power from?  Hrmm?  Where will all the HOMES get their HEAT from hrmm?  WHERE will all the industrial process plants get their HEAT value from?  Hrmm? 

It ain't Uranium/Thorium as they refuse to build modern nuclear plants. 

It ain't solar as Europe has no sun for at least half the year. 

It ain't pumped hydro as they are not opening gargantuan concrete industrial sites to produce the portland cement for all the gargantuan dams required nor are they displacing millions of people out of Switzerland to build said lakes from

There is no viable battery technology unless you play pretend that one can pay $1 or higher for a kWh and still have a modern society. 

Europe does not have the biomass to do so, they are maxed and already importing trees from other nations...

Leaves Wind, which in summer time does not blow and in the dead of winter also does not BLOW.... Great all they have to do is build 6X capacity factor of wind turbines which will cover ~ 9 months of the year...