Looming European Gas Crisis in Winter and North African Factor - a must read by Cyril Widdershoven

[Starschy + 211]

On 11/12/2021 at 1:55 AM, footeab@yahoo.com said:

 

It ain't solar as Europe has no sun for at least half the year. 

You haven't visited Europe lately. Finland may have a half year Winter. But not Switzerland, France not to mention Greece, Malta, Spain, Turkey which are colorful Tourist destination in Winter. Check Antalya or Kreta.

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,129]

3 hours ago, Starschy said:

You haven't visited Europe lately. Finland may have a half year Winter. But not Switzerland, France not to mention Greece, Malta, Spain, Turkey which are colorful Tourist destination in Winter. Check Antalya or Kreta.

I suggest looking at a solar map next time bud. https://globalsolaratlas.info/map

Turkey, is not Europe.  Malta... are you for real... 🙄

Got any more dumb comments?  I am sure you have plenty. 

Roll on

[Starschy + 211]

11 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

I suggest looking at a solar map next time bud. https://globalsolaratlas.info/map

Turkey, is not Europe.  Malta... are you for real... 🙄

Got any more dumb comments?  I am sure you have plenty. 

Roll on

Turkey is for sure Europe otherwise I would donate a Swiss Atlas for US Schools.

[specinho + 439]

On 11/12/2021 at 8:55 AM, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Ah, the nutter response... Dear genius and WHERE exactly will said vehicles get their power from?  Hrmm?  Where will all the HOMES get their HEAT from hrmm?  WHERE will all the industrial process plants get their HEAT value from?  Hrmm? 

It ain't Uranium/Thorium as they refuse to build modern nuclear plants. 

It ain't solar as Europe has no sun for at least half the year. 

It ain't pumped hydro as they are not opening gargantuan concrete industrial sites to produce the portland cement for all the gargantuan dams required nor are they displacing millions of people out of Switzerland to build said lakes from

There is no viable battery technology unless you play pretend that one can pay $1 or higher for a kWh and still have a modern society. 

Europe does not have the biomass to do so, they are maxed and already importing trees from other nations...

Leaves Wind, which in summer time does not blow and in the dead of winter also does not BLOW.... Great all they have to do is build 6X capacity factor of wind turbines which will cover ~ 9 months of the year...

probably this......... one of the old time favourite energy sources and winter fun time........?

4 hours ago, Starschy said:

Turkey is for sure Europe otherwise I would donate a Swiss Atlas for US Schools.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_state_of_the_European_Union

there are totally 28 countries in the EU, including Croatia.

[Boat + 1,315]

On 11/8/2021 at 2:01 AM, dukeNukem said:

Surprisingly, but even most of US LNG sold under long-term contrats... Only small fraction going to sales on spot market

So your saying all this hype about a gas shortage is wrong because there is plenty of gas because of long term contracts. Doesn’t Europe have other things to do besides waste time on non issues.? If Europe needs gas, just outbid the Asians. This hype smells of a Putin propaganda scheme. Lol He is creative though. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 11/9/2021 at 8:07 PM, Tomasz said:

Well to be objective apart from share in algierian national gas producer I would also add that Algeria has been one of the world's largest buyers of Russian weapons for many years. And because Algieria has been pursuing such a policy for years, she has a very large amount of post-Soviet or Russian weapons in stock, which she must after all service.

I recommend the case of my Poland and our as always very clever Polish strategists who thought that the entire NATO post-Soviet Mig-29 would be renovated without a license from Russia in Poland.

The result is that polish 40 MIG-29 are slowly dying from the lack of parts for undertaking such activities without the manufacturer's license.

So I know that it was supposed to be satirical on the basis of arguments such as "ad Putinum" (new version of ad Hitlerum) or "Russia did it" but sorry for our Russian colleague Russia is not a most powerful country in Africa  but in Algeria, Russia has a powerful influence,

Check it out https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algerian_People's_National_Army

If you dont know about 90 % of military equipment mentioned above are postsoviet or russian origin.

Although, frankly speaking, looking at what a disgrace ultimately turned out to be the entire Russiagate and Russia's alleged great support for Trump's election, it's just a final laugh for our Russian colleague. And score points all the time because this was a total bulshit.

Well, I would like to remind you that Trump was allegly a Russian agent to make Russia great again.

And common knowledge was that everyone in the Kremlin was allegedly afraid of the terrible Biden, which will not be a Russian agent and will impose such sanctions that the world has not seen yet, that it is a piece of cake in a case against Iran.

Perhaps it would be so if, by a miraculous twist of fate for America, the People's Republic of China suddenly disappeared from the map.

But since China is getting stronger and the US can see that time is not working in their favor, the CIA chief is coming to Moscow and no sanctions are planned for the time being.

If yu are sensible man please dont watch Rachel Maddow but read some open letters from last year. I such 2 of them and especially list of supporters to know whats really going on.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/05/open-letter-russia-policy-391434

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/09/25/russia-open-letters-rebuttal-421546

I would say that a lot of people signed these lists, people who are not the least significant in the USA. Well, but if someone expected the terrible Biden who would finally bring Russia to its knees, then, in general, there are people who are often affiliated with the Democratic Party in total.

One of the points of contention is Ukraine. At the moment, there is no gas and coal, and President Zelenskiy is fighting against Akhmetov in Ukraine (richest oligarch in Ukraine).

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5064948 - current relations between Biden and Putin. Because it was not argumentum ad Putinum but Trump was main problem for establishment in USA not Putin.

 

 

"They consider that engagement with what they view as an irredeemably hostile, aggressive and immoral Russia under President Vladimir Putin is a fool’s errand at best. They propose instead focusing on ever mounting punishment of Russia’s malign behavior through sanctions, in the conviction that Russia will eventually capitulate and repent of its past conduct, accept all responsibility for the deterioration in relations, and take the first steps to repair the damage. They minimize Russia’s power to resist these punishments and continue to inflict damage on the United States and its allies and partners."

I think they have a very good grasp of what Russia is and what they intend. I believe that the Russian Bear is still a bear and will knock over any door that it is allowed to. Its actions continue to show that habituation. Only a fool would trust any agreement made with Russia. They have broken every one they ever made. Ukraine, Georgia, and Byelorussia are only the most recent reminders. Belarus is a dictatorship and is acting like a pawn of Russia, just as North Korea is a pawn of China. 

Putin only understands strength. The European Union is bordering on pacifist and Germany is the main country guiding it. It has counted on Putin to supply its natural gas and is getting what it deserves. It needs to toughen up and pay its own military to deal with Russia. We should only backup through NATO and cooperation. We have our own would be dictator in Biden and the Demoncrats. RCW

[ronwagn + 6,290]

2 hours ago, Boat said:

So your saying all this hype about a gas shortage is wrong because there is plenty of gas because of long term contracts. Doesn’t Europe have other things to do besides waste time on non issues.? If Europe needs gas, just outbid the Asians. This hype smells of a Putin propaganda scheme. Lol He is creative though. 

They want cheap natural gas piped to them, they prefer not to pay LNG prices when they are at their peak, yet they refuse to develop their own natural gas because they are so GREEN. 

[Starschy + 211]

On 11/14/2021 at 5:56 PM, specinho said:

probably this......... one of the old time favourite energy sources and winter fun time........?

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_state_of_the_European_Union

there are totally 28 countries in the EU, including Croatia.

EU does not cover full Europe. As example Switzerland, Russia are in Europe but not in the EU. The same with Island, Norway, Serbia, Andora, Monaco and I think I would find a few others.

Edited November 16, 2021 by Starschy
added information, Typo

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,129]

On 11/14/2021 at 4:17 AM, Starschy said:

Turkey is for sure Europe otherwise I would donate a Swiss Atlas for US Schools.

Find a SINGLE map with Turkey in Europe instead of Asia... Go for it bud...

Suggest starting with continental plate outlines....

[Starschy + 211]

2 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Find a SINGLE map with Turkey in Europe instead of Asia... Go for it bud...

Suggest starting with continental plate outlines....

https://www.countries-ofthe-world.com/countries-of-europe.html

Its true that Turkey has a part in Asia but the Main part is in Europe with Istanbul.

a simple rule for that All Countries around the Black Sea belong to Europe all around the Caspian Sea belong to Asia. (In cases of Sport Federations that rule may have some minor changes)

[nsdp + 449]

7 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Find a SINGLE map with Turkey in Europe instead of Asia... Go for it bud...

Suggest starting with continental plate outlines....

You are worse than a US ARMY second lieutenant or a Navy Ensign with a map.  Thrace is part of Turkey and is in Europe. I have been to Constantinople and it is in Europe just like Bulgaria and Greece next door.

Above on the Mig -29, USAF maintains  8 aircraft acquired from Germany as part of its OPFOR wing. German Mig 29's used to fly as OPFOR in Red Flag and the Mig 29 in the hands of German  pilots was better than frontline F-15A, F-16A, and F-18A. There is an old (20 years ago) video on History channel where a film crew accompanied a Navy F-18A squadron to Germany for exercises.  The Navy held its own in scripted exercises but lost its butt when the Luftwaffe was allowed free style on the last day. usually same result for Zooomies.

[nsdp + 449]

For the benefit of those discussing European gas supplies. Let me dispel some ignorance:

Last week, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approved Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass to introduce feedgas to the commissioning Train 6 liquefaction unit. Venture Global’s greenfield Calcasieu Pass LNG terminal, which has also started commissioning, is likely not far behind. This step of the projects’ start-up process marks the beginning of a level-shift up in baseline demand for feedgas. There is currently about 75 MMtpa (~9.9 Bcf/d) of LNG export capacity operating in the U.S., 67.3 MMtpa (8.9 Bcf/d) of that on the Gulf Coast. At full utilization, that amounts to about 11 Bcf/d of feedgas demand. The completion of Train 6 and the entirety of the Calcasieu Pass project will increase total liquefaction capacity to 89.65 MMtpa (nearly 12 Bcf/d) and bring total feedgas deliveries up by about 2.25 Bcf/d to more than 13 Bcf/d by the end of 2022. And a chunk of that will be in final commissioning stages and possibly start service during the coming winter." https://rbnenergy.com/hear-my-train-a-comin-part2-rising-lng-exports-hitch-us-gas-to-soaring-ttf-jkm-prices

Start up has already affected Henry Hub prices by $2/mmbtu compared to last year. Tankers will load Jan2. This will be more than Algeria 's total exports by pipeline. By the time projects at Brownsville , Freeport andLake Charles finish  there will be 20 BCF/d or nearly double today's capacity on the Gulf coast. That is by July 2023.

[Boat + 1,315]

16 hours ago, nsdp said:

For the benefit of those discussing European gas supplies. Let me dispel some ignorance:

Last week, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approved Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass to introduce feedgas to the commissioning Train 6 liquefaction unit. Venture Global’s greenfield Calcasieu Pass LNG terminal, which has also started commissioning, is likely not far behind. This step of the projects’ start-up process marks the beginning of a level-shift up in baseline demand for feedgas. There is currently about 75 MMtpa (~9.9 Bcf/d) of LNG export capacity operating in the U.S., 67.3 MMtpa (8.9 Bcf/d) of that on the Gulf Coast. At full utilization, that amounts to about 11 Bcf/d of feedgas demand. The completion of Train 6 and the entirety of the Calcasieu Pass project will increase total liquefaction capacity to 89.65 MMtpa (nearly 12 Bcf/d) and bring total feedgas deliveries up by about 2.25 Bcf/d to more than 13 Bcf/d by the end of 2022. And a chunk of that will be in final commissioning stages and possibly start service during the coming winter." https://rbnenergy.com/hear-my-train-a-comin-part2-rising-lng-exports-hitch-us-gas-to-soaring-ttf-jkm-prices

Start up has already affected Henry Hub prices by $2/mmbtu compared to last year. Tankers will load Jan2. This will be more than Algeria 's total exports by pipeline. By the time projects at Brownsville , Freeport andLake Charles finish  there will be 20 BCF/d or nearly double today's capacity on the Gulf coast. That is by July 2023.

This expansion and these exports are exactly why Dems and Biden are not nearly as green as rednecks report. Let’s not forget that flaring for profit at the expense of the planet and American lungs is still going on. I seem to be the only one on the planet woke enough to figure it out.  Kinda like allowing employers to hire illegals without fear of penalty is why America is an attractive destination for illegals. There seems to be a general disconnect and declining skill level at connecting those dots. Have no fear, you boys got me to remind you. Lol

[Boat + 1,315]

You guys heard of the rat pack? Dean Martin, Sammy Davis Jr and Frank Sinatra. That show was fill with racism and off colored jokes. You can see them on YouTube if your not familiar. They also championed drinking, smoking, hanging out at clubs, and gambling. I believe in candid conversation and all topics being fair game. I don’t have to dislike you to think perhaps on a topic or issue that your full of shyt. That’s freedom of speech. That’s America. We should be big enough and strong enough to handle insults. Use your creative minds to return the favor. That’s being woke in my view. Not your woke definition but my own.
No, I am not joining the redneck ranks and dreaming of new ways to damage air and water to make a buck. I am willing to pollute to make a buck if the product is less polluting in comparison. That’s woke think. Not against FF and thankful for its usefulness but it’s our job always to become more efficient and cleaner. 

[NickW + 2,714]

On 11/14/2021 at 12:53 AM, footeab@yahoo.com said:

I suggest looking at a solar map next time bud. https://globalsolaratlas.info/map

Turkey, is not Europe.  Malta... are you for real... 🙄

Got any more dumb comments?  I am sure you have plenty. 

Roll on

Spain is the big winter time solar resource for Europe and has a lot of land area. 

Solar output in winter is about 60% of peak summer. In Northern Europe is about 15%.

As for Turkey, Like Morocco its interconnected with the European grid. 

JRC Photovoltaic Geographical Information System (PVGIS) - European Commission (europa.eu)

[NickW + 2,714]

On 11/15/2021 at 7:09 PM, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Find a SINGLE map with Turkey in Europe instead of Asia... Go for it bud...

Suggest starting with continental plate outlines....

Eastern Thracia is in Europe and is Turkish.

 Thracia - Wikipedia

Anyway puerile argument - Turkey is heavily interconnected into the European grid. 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,129]

1 hour ago, NickW said:

Spain is the big winter time solar resource for Europe and has a lot of land area. 

Solar output in winter is about 60% of peak summer. In Northern Europe is about 15%.

As for Turkey, Like Morocco its interconnected with the European grid. 

JRC Photovoltaic Geographical Information System (PVGIS) - European Commission (europa.eu)

?  Never used your own link did you?  Or did you select the Canary islands?  It shows,~ 1/3-->40% Direct Normal Irradiation at Madrid which is the standard used by pretty much everyone on said subject.  Likewise I clicked on best possible --> tracking, not fixed for direct normal.

Then there is the fact that 2 out of 10 years one has a graph like year of 2013 where for 4 months it was less than 1/3.  Or ~100 hours a month where many of those hours are too low of irradiation to even turn the panels on.  There are ~720 hours/month.... Or supplies 15% -->10% of summer.

Total average for 6 months October --> April is about ~40% of summer.  Where one of those 6 months will on average be over ~50% of summer be it either in spring/fall. 

Last I checked, there is no 1000GW interconnect....

So, on the daily average one needs, by the time you get inefficiencies for battery storage, and minimums of winter, one needs 10X-->13X Grid requirements.  This can be dropped if we finally come up with a true battery that can store power for more than a couple months.  This will drop total requirements of grid power demand(assuming batteries) of 7X or so.  No, we will not be moving industrial capacity around away from Winter as economics forbids it and most processes do not like to be idled.  Not to mention, Everyone goes on Holiday during summer and that societal aspect most certainly will not change. 

 

Edited November 16, 2021 by footeab@yahoo.com

[nsdp + 449]

7 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

?  Never used your own link did you?  Or did you select the Canary islands?  It shows,~ 1/3-->40% Direct Normal Irradiation at Madrid which is the standard used by pretty much everyone on said subject.  Likewise I clicked on best possible --> tracking, not fixed for direct normal.

Then there is the fact that 2 out of 10 years one has a graph like year of 2013 where for 4 months it was less than 1/3.  Or ~100 hours a month where many of those hours are too low of irradiation to even turn the panels on.  There are ~720 hours/month.... Or supplies 15% -->10% of summer.

Total average for 6 months October --> April is about ~40% of summer.  Where one of those 6 months will on average be over ~50% of summer be it either in spring/fall. 

Last I checked, there is no 1000GW interconnect....

So, on the daily average one needs, by the time you get inefficiencies for battery storage, and minimums of winter, one needs 10X-->13X Grid requirements.  This can be dropped if we finally come up with a true battery that can store power for more than a couple months.  This will drop total requirements of grid power demand(assuming batteries) of 7X or so.  No, we will not be moving industrial capacity around away from Winter as economics forbids it and most processes do not like to be idled.  Not to mention, Everyone goes on Holiday during summer and that societal aspect most certainly will not change. 

 

Only idiots like you use batteries.  Salt caverns like we use in Texas to store  more than enough H2 (currently used for refineries) are the model for large scale storage on the scale of 100 GWH to 1TWH.   Salt beds and salt domes are available world wide.  Technology is 50 years old (not sexy like fancy batteries) so that is why it doesn't get lots of press.

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,129]

2 hours ago, nsdp said:

Only idiots like you use batteries.  Salt caverns like we use in Texas to store  more than enough H2 (currently used for refineries) are the model for large scale storage on the scale of 100 GWH to 1TWH.   Salt beds and salt domes are available world wide.  Technology is 50 years old (not sexy like fancy batteries) so that is why it doesn't get lots of press.

Salt domes everywhere eh... Good luck with that fantasy.  They only exist where old oil/gas existed.  Vast majority of the world has zero. 

If wind/solar were dirt cheap and your salt domes for H2 had any viability in terms of efficiency everyone would be building them.  Of course if this were true, idiots in Europe would have built vast stores for NG in said salt domes instead of the paltry number they have built and actually have filled them instead of living on the razors edge of bending over for Russia. 

PS: H2 cycle efficiency sucks ass.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

On 11/15/2021 at 2:58 AM, ronwagn said:

"They consider that engagement with what they view as an irredeemably hostile, aggressive and immoral Russia under President Vladimir Putin is a fool’s errand at best. They propose instead focusing on ever mounting punishment of Russia’s malign behavior through sanctions, in the conviction that Russia will eventually capitulate and repent of its past conduct, accept all responsibility for the deterioration in relations, and take the first steps to repair the damage. They minimize Russia’s power to resist these punishments and continue to inflict damage on the United States and its allies and partners."

I think they have a very good grasp of what Russia is and what they intend. I believe that the Russian Bear is still a bear and will knock over any door that it is allowed to. Its actions continue to show that habituation. Only a fool would trust any agreement made with Russia. They have broken every one they ever made. Ukraine, Georgia, and Byelorussia are only the most recent reminders. Belarus is a dictatorship and is acting like a pawn of Russia, just as North Korea is a pawn of China. 

Putin only understands strength. The European Union is bordering on pacifist and Germany is the main country guiding it. It has counted on Putin to supply its natural gas and is getting what it deserves. It needs to toughen up and pay its own military to deal with Russia. We should only backup through NATO and cooperation. We have our own would be dictator in Biden and the Demoncrats. RCW

When did Russia break an agreement? Give me an example. We are constantly being framed.

[dukeNukem + 80]

On 11/15/2021 at 4:06 AM, Boat said:

So your saying all this hype about a gas shortage is wrong because there is plenty of gas because of long term contracts. Doesn’t Europe have other things to do besides waste time on non issues.? If Europe needs gas, just outbid the Asians. This hype smells of a Putin propaganda scheme. Lol He is creative though. 

Try to read my message again - it stated pretty clear. Don't try to put your words into my message.

[NickW + 2,714]

On 11/16/2021 at 10:21 PM, footeab@yahoo.com said:

?  Never used your own link did you?  Or did you select the Canary islands?  It shows,~ 1/3-->40% Direct Normal Irradiation at Madrid which is the standard used by pretty much everyone on said subject.  Likewise I clicked on best possible --> tracking, not fixed for direct normal.

Then there is the fact that 2 out of 10 years one has a graph like year of 2013 where for 4 months it was less than 1/3.  Or ~100 hours a month where many of those hours are too low of irradiation to even turn the panels on.  There are ~720 hours/month.... Or supplies 15% -->10% of summer.

Total average for 6 months October --> April is about ~40% of summer.  Where one of those 6 months will on average be over ~50% of summer be it either in spring/fall. 

Last I checked, there is no 1000GW interconnect....

So, on the daily average one needs, by the time you get inefficiencies for battery storage, and minimums of winter, one needs 10X-->13X Grid requirements.  This can be dropped if we finally come up with a true battery that can store power for more than a couple months.  This will drop total requirements of grid power demand(assuming batteries) of 7X or so.  No, we will not be moving industrial capacity around away from Winter as economics forbids it and most processes do not like to be idled.  Not to mention, Everyone goes on Holiday during summer and that societal aspect most certainly will not change. 

 

Yes I did - I was referring to Southern interior spain which is mostly semi desert. Obviously that north south differential widens as you travel north. 

That link is  specifically for the area south of Albacete. 

January output per 1kw of PV - 119kwh 

July output per 1 KW of PV - 169kwh

So in that case peak winter output is 70% of peak summer output. No doubt helped by having a dry, cool sunny winter climate, also at altitude. 

 

PVGIS-5_GridConnectedPV_37.845_-2.269_SA_crystSi_1kWp_14_35deg_0deg.pdf

Edited November 18, 2021 by NickW

[NickW + 2,714]

On 11/17/2021 at 9:13 AM, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Salt domes everywhere eh... Good luck with that fantasy.  They only exist where old oil/gas existed.  Vast majority of the world has zero. 

If wind/solar were dirt cheap and your salt domes for H2 had any viability in terms of efficiency everyone would be building them.  Of course if this were true, idiots in Europe would have built vast stores for NG in said salt domes instead of the paltry number they have built and actually have filled them instead of living on the razors edge of bending over for Russia. 

PS: H2 cycle efficiency sucks ass.

You can also use subsurface salt mines. Plenty of those in Europe. 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,129]

8 hours ago, NickW said:

Yes I did - I was referring to Southern interior spain which is mostly semi desert. Obviously that north south differential widens as you travel north. 

That link is  specifically for the area south of Albacete. 

January output per 1kw of PV - 119kwh 

July output per 1 KW of PV - 169kwh

So in that case peak winter output is 70% of peak summer output. No doubt helped by having a dry, cool sunny winter climate, also at altitude. 

 

PVGIS-5_GridConnectedPV_37.845_-2.269_SA_crystSi_1kWp_14_35deg_0deg.pdf 364.14 kB · 0 downloads

... According to your own link, not the pdf, your January number is a blatant lie.  And no one is going to use fixed angle PV on an industrial scale when you get 20% more with single plane tracking.  Let me get this straight... you think you are going to power your civilization on 1700kWh/yr.... right.... 🙄.  Good luck on that one.  And if you install those exact same solar panels in Southern Morocco/Algeria/Liby, you will obtain 30-->50% more power a year and the labor is cheaper.  Guess where they will be built... NOT in SPAIN!  So, instead of begging the Gulf region or Russia, you get to beg the African's for power. 

Albacete IS MADRID only slightly to the east🙄.  Same lattitude, same climate or nearly so.  😆 When in reality you would have to literally cover all of Spain to get the necessary power.  Current electric demand is only a small pittance of  the power required to run a modern civilization. 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,129]

5 hours ago, NickW said:

You can also use subsurface salt mines. Plenty of those in Europe. 

Uh, no.  Well technically you are "correct", if you call low pressure gas in small volumes useful🙄