"Gold Set To Soar As Inflation Fears Mount" by Alex Kimani

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

Thanks, I was thinking about copper. Aluminum also looks promising. If I were younger, I would possibly open a small foundry to melt down aluminum cans etc. Maybe I could corner the local market! https://worldscholarshipforum.com/wealth/how-much-are-aluminum-cans-worth/

They are not just aluminum, but got a ton of plastic laminate. You will get a crap product. Most of the cans collected go for processing to somewhere in Sweden, where they cornered a market on various forms of silumine. Which is a relatively heavy alloy of AlSi you usually encounter as fake brass

https://kayabaparts.ru/en/sozdaem-metallicheskie-predmety-v-domashnih-usloviyah-silumin-chto/

as well as various motor casings, etc. Which means the cans end up as bulky cast parts, not something that you likely expect aluminum to be. Also

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silumin

Edited November 22, 2021 by Andrei Moutchkine

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

On 11/18/2021 at 6:19 PM, Tom Nolan said:

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/gold-breakout-imminent

Gold Breakout Imminent!

by Tyler Durden

Thursday, Nov 18, 2021 - 06:30 AM

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

This is getting ridiculous. And that’s a good thing.

By “this,” I mean the price of gold, and by “ridiculous,” I mean repetitive to the point of absurdity. That’s OK. The prospects for gold from here are highly positive.

 

By now, readers are tired of my description of gold trading as range-bound between $1,700 per ounce on the low side and $1,900 per ounce on the high side, with $1,800 per ounce as the central tendency. That’s completely accurate but also highly repetitive, since it has held true with only brief and minor exceptions for the past year.

This pattern emerged in November 2020 after gold fell from its all-time high of $2,069 per ounce on Aug. 6, 2020. The predictable question from investors is: “Fine, we get it. But, when does the pattern break either to the upside or downside? What’s next for gold?”

That’s where the good news begins. Yes, gold has been range-bound, but the range is getting smaller. While swings of 5% in a matter of days were common as recently as last summer, that volatility has cooled off. Gold still moves up and down in price, but the swings are much more compact.

The central tendency is still $1,800 per ounce, but the swings are more tightly bunched between $1,750 and $1,850 (again, with a few exceptions). That’s a 5.5% band to replace the prior 11.0% band.

We’re also seeing a pattern of lower highs and higher lows as compression continues. That’s a technical pattern called a pennant because it looks like a sports pennant if you draw converging lines through the highs and lows.

A pennant is a setup for a breakout. The breakout can occur in either direction, but it’s more common for the breakout to continue the trend that existed before the consolidation.

Whether we take the $1,685 price on March 30, 2021, the $1,725 price on Aug. 9, 2021, or the $1,722 price on Sept. 29, 2021, it’s clear that this pennant formed in the wake of an uptrend. This suggests that the breakout will be to the upside and it will occur soon.

There’s a run of fundamental data that supports this technical view.

The first piece of evidence is that the real price of physical bullion today is not $1,864 per ounce (according to the COMEX gold futures contract price), but closer to $2,000 per ounce according to my gold bullion dealer sources.

The difference between the two prices is about 8%.

The problem with this pricing method is that a normal dealer commission is around 2.5%. Any commission higher than that is not really a commission. It’s a reflection of scarcity, delivery delays and other logistical issues in getting actual physical bullion instead of paper gold contracts.

In other words, $1,925 per ounce is the real price of real physical bullion. Everything else is just paper.

The second fundamental factor is that Russia is back in the game. As readers know, Russia has increased its gold reserves by 1,700 metric tonnes since 2009. Gold reserves were 600 metric tonnes in 2009 and are 2,298.5 metric tonnes today, a 283% increase in the past twelve years.

The Central Bank of Russia has pursued this acquisition plan in a steady and incremental way under President Putin and Central Bank Chief Elvira Nabiullina. Acquisitions of gold were regular in amounts of about 5 to 30 metric tonnes per month like clockwork to avoid disrupting the market.

In April of last year, the clock stopped. Russia reduced its holdings slightly in April, July, August, September and October 2020 and January and April 2021. Holdings were unchanged in November and December 2020 and February, March, May and June of 2021.

Now, Russia is back on the buy side. It purchased 3.1 metric tonnes in July 2021 and another 3.1 metric tonnes in September 2021 (August was unchanged). Analysts should not mistake this renewed purchasing as a buying binge by Russia. It’s something more subtle.

Russia is running the world’s most sophisticated hedging operation inside its global reserve account of hard currencies and gold. The object is to maintain gold at about 20% of total reserves. This goal was achieved in early 2020, which accounts for the fact that purchases tailed off after that.

Russia’s reserves are now bulging because of the steeply higher price of oil. This increases Russia’s dollar reserves since oil is priced in dollars. If dollar reserves are increasing and Russia wants to maintain gold at 20% of total reserves, it has to buy more gold to maintain the allocation. This is no different than what everyday investors do when they rebalance target portfolios to account for large gains or losses in a particular asset class.

It’s also consistent with Russia’s hedging objectives. If the dollar retains its value, gold may not move much in price. Still, the allocation of gold in the portfolio acts as insurance. If the dollar crashes in value, the dollar price of gold will soar and Russia’s losses on its dollar portfolio will be offset by gains on its gold portfolio.

In its current form, the dollar is losing value, at least in relation to oil. The dollar price of gold has not moved much. So, that’s an opportune time to buy gold to maintain the hedge without paying a premium. The Russians are masters of this kind of dynamic hedging (unlike Americans). They just proved it again through the combination of expensive oil (generating revenue) and steady gold prices (offering an attractive entry point at which to maintain the hedge).

But Russia’s not alone. Other major central banks that have added materially to their gold reserves in recent months are Thailand (90.20 metric tonnes), Brazil (53.75 metric tonnes), Turkey (8.67 metric tonnes), India (8.4 metric tonnes) and Qatar (3.12 metric tonnes). Some central banks were net sellers, but the total sales of the top five were less than 25 metric tonnes, far smaller than the total additions.

And of course, China has acquired massive amounts of gold in recent years, which has been part of a concerted overall strategy. And recently, Chinese gold imports from Hong Kong hit a five-month high, up nearly 60% in September.

These central bank purchases were in anticipation of a declining dollar and higher dollar inflation. The central banks are buying gold to stay ahead of the curve. Shouldn’t you do the same?

There is going to be a breakout, whenever there is a clear separation between the broken "paper gold" (derivative contracts on commodity exchanges) and physical gold. Which is bound to become more expensive, due to minor small print in Basel III central banking regs all the world's central banks largely subscribed too. It makes physical gold reportable as 100% liquid cash equivalent in the currency of their choosing. Used to be 25% till recently. (One is called something like Type or Class I reserve, another Type III? Forgot) This means, that for the purposes of central banking, gold constitutes liquid cash again, which is arguably as good as swiss francs or better. For a private induhvidual it usually means nothing much, unless you can come up with a good way to hoard physical gold?

[notsonice + 1,068]

On 11/13/2021 at 6:53 PM, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Sigh... Gold genius is up 550% in last 20 years... Silver ~500% in last 20 years.  It is almost as if you PURPOSEFULLY lied like a little coward by picking the peak in 2011...   Who knew, when you print money, your currency drops in value... SHOCKER!

You might figure out what a vaccine is and what is not eventually.  Let me guess you are also wearing a moron diaper as you have not passed 1 year old math where a 2nm virus can ... pass through a 95nm diameter hole.... Or the giant voids top bottom sides where it floats in the room as no one actually owns a medical grade mask which are only ~5% effective at slowing spread if they are changed out every hour on the hour...

and today's gold market???? creamed and the dollar strengthened . Guess the gold market/price is headed to a full blown bear market. 1700 Gold by the New Year. Guess people like their  money more than hoarding gold... Remember to spend gold today you have to convert it to money first.

 

PS how old are you? 5? Keep babbling, it is all you have left.

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,131]

A better reserve is bulk aluminum.  Why?  Its cost is directly proportional to the cost of power.  Its value will never decrease until someone creates nuclear fusion or at minimum Thorium breeder reactors.  Also long term it is a superior metal as it requires 1/3--~> 1/2 the power of recycling steel.  Just not as good as steel for many applications, but for buildings etc?  It is. 

Frankly holding gold/silver is stupid.  Better off holding bulk industrial metals as long as said bulk metals are stored near water transportation...

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,131]

8 minutes ago, notsonice said:

and today's gold market???? creamed and the dollar strengthened . Guess the gold market/price is headed to a full blown bear market. 1700 Gold by the New Year. Guess people like their  money more than hoarding gold... Remember to spend gold today you have to convert it to money first.

 

PS how old are you? 5? Keep babbling, it is all you have left.

Aww, did your mommy not change your diaper?  Are averages over time too difficult for your dirty diaper baby butt? Aww

Aww do ya need a pacifier to stop your crying because Gold/Silver have out performed everything over the last 20 years not named TSLA, ILMN, AAPL, GOOGL FB. 

Poor baby, did ya get spanked with basic math.  Tsch tsch. 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

1 hour ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Aww, did your mommy not change your diaper?  Are averages over time too difficult for your dirty diaper baby butt? Aww

Aww do ya need a pacifier to stop your crying because Gold/Silver have out performed everything over the last 20 years not named TSLA, ILMN, AAPL, GOOGL FB. 

Poor baby, did ya get spanked with basic math.  Tsch tsch. 

The best performing stock over the period got to be Broadcom

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

1 hour ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

A better reserve is bulk aluminum.  Why?  Its cost is directly proportional to the cost of power.  Its value will never decrease until someone creates nuclear fusion or at minimum Thorium breeder reactors.  Also long term it is a superior metal as it requires 1/3--~> 1/2 the power of recycling steel.  Just not as good as steel for many applications, but for buildings etc?  It is. 

Frankly holding gold/silver is stupid.  Better off holding bulk industrial metals as long as said bulk metals are stored near water transportation...

So, you are basically suggesting hording regular clay (kaolin)? Because this is what aluminum ore is

Recycled aluminum tends to become silumin cast parts, not really architectural grade.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

1 hour ago, notsonice said:

and today's gold market???? creamed and the dollar strengthened . Guess the gold market/price is headed to a full blown bear market. 1700 Gold by the New Year. Guess people like their  money more than hoarding gold... Remember to spend gold today you have to convert it to money first.

 

PS how old are you? 5? Keep babbling, it is all you have left.

Gold IS actually money (according to Basel III) Whereas those contracts they sell for 1700 on NYMEX - not really gold. If somebody were to call them all, you'd notice that there is not enough actual gold to cover them. Leading to a similarly stupid situation we observe on GAME STOP stock right now.

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,131]

1 hour ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

So, you are basically suggesting hording regular clay (kaolin)? Because this is what aluminum ore is

Recycled aluminum tends to become silumin cast parts, not really architectural grade.

Not true at all as vast majority of aluminum comes from industrial production where the exact grade is known.  Likewise all thick castings etc of aluminum are a known or close enough known grade.  What you are talking about is household scrapish junk of which there is a significant amount, but compared to the industrial aluminum, is minuscule and is loaded with steel, paint, and other crap. That stuff is essentially worthless.

You want to hold ore?  That is up to you dude.  Holding ore is stupid.  Aluminum on the other hand is holding mostly energy as its cost.

I have tons of the stuff.  Literally.  Bought at its low point before 2016.  If sold today is worth 130% more than when I bought it. 

Edited November 23, 2021 by footeab@yahoo.com

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

4 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Not true at all as vast majority of aluminum comes from industrial production where the exact grade is known.  Likewise all thick castings etc of aluminum are a known or close enough known grade.  What you are talking about is household scrapish junk of which there is a significant amount, but compared to the industrial aluminum, is minuscule. 

Sure thing. Up to quarter of the stuff is silicon

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silumin

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,131]

3 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Sure thing. Up to quarter of the stuff is silicon

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silumin

So, you are choosing, willingly to buy low grade crap? 

Okay dude, pure genius.  Enjoy

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

7 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

So, you are choosing, willingly to buy low grade crap? 

Okay dude, pure genius.  Enjoy

I have no choice. This stuff is all over the place. Look at various anonymous bulky casing on the things you've got. Having said that, some of it appears to be some kind of improved AlSiFe formula that is actually proudly stamped on some of the more recent ones. As soon as I trip over one of those again, I'll give you the scoop on what is up with that.

[Tom Nolan + 2,441]

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/poland-plans-add-another-100-tons-gold-its-reserves

Poland Plans To Add Another 100 Tons Of Gold To Its Reserves

by Tyler Durden

Tuesday, Nov 23, 2021 - 04:15 AM

During a recent interview, Bank of Poland President Adam Glapiński said the central bank plans to add 100 tons of gold to its reserves in 2022.

As SchiffGold.com details below, the National Bank of Poland began aggressively adding gold to its reserves in 2018. Through the first half of 2019, the Polish central bank added more than 100 tons of gold, nearly doubling its reserves.

 

The Bank of Poland currently holds around 230 tons of gold. The country’s gold holding rank as the 23rd largest in the world. Gold makes up about 6.5% of the Bank of Poland’s total assets. That is similar to the percentage of gold held by the US and Germany.

Why does the Bank of Poland hold gold?

In a nutshell, Glapiński said it is a matter of financial security and stability.

Gold will retain its value even when someone cuts off the power to the global financial system, destroying traditional assets based on electronic accounting records. Of course, we do not assume that this will happen. But as the saying goes – forewarned is always insured. And the central bank is required to be prepared for even the most unfavorable circumstances. That is why we see a special place for gold in our foreign exchange management process.”

He went on to discuss some of the benefits of gold as a monetary asset.

After all, gold is free from credit risk and cannot be devalued by any country’s economic policy. Besides, it is extremely durable, virtually indestructible.”

A World Gold Council survey found that there is deteriorating faith in the US dollar and a continuing trend toward de-dollarization.

Respondents continue to foresee long-term structural changes in the international monetary system, continuing a trend indicated in last year’s survey. Views toward the US dollar trended downward, with half of respondents saying the greenback will fall below its current proportion. Central banks continue to think that the Chinese renminbi’s proportion will increase, with 88% saying that it will grow beyond current levels.”

Glapiński hinted this was one of the reasons Poland continues to add gold to its reserves.

Gold is characterized by a relatively low correlation with the main asset classes – especially the US dollar dominating the NBP reserve portfolio – which means that including gold in the reserves reduces the financial risk in the process of investing them.”

Glapiński said the scale and pace of future gold purchases “will depend, inter alia, on the dynamics of changes in official reserve assets and current market conditions.”

Net gold buying by central banks globally reached 393 tons at the end of Q3. Central banks have already bought more gold this year than they did in the entirety of 2020 (255 tons) with one quarter left to go. The World Gold Council says net gold purchases are “poised to reach a significant total in 2021.

[notsonice + 1,068]

On 11/22/2021 at 3:14 PM, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Aww, did your mommy not change your diaper?  Are averages over time too difficult for your dirty diaper baby butt? Aww

Aww do ya need a pacifier to stop your crying because Gold/Silver have out performed everything over the last 20 years not named TSLA, ILMN, AAPL, GOOGL FB. 

Poor baby, did ya get spanked with basic math.  Tsch tsch. 

Foot in your mouth, you are an idiot. Stocks (including reinvesting dividends into stocks) always beat gold. 

 

[notsonice + 1,068]

On 11/16/2021 at 11:24 AM, Tom Nolan said:

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gold

Gold steadied around $1,860 an ounce on Tuesday, after rising toward the $1,900 level earlier in the day as the US dollar index extended gains for the second session to 16-month highs after Fed’s Bullard said the US central bank should tack in a more hawkish direction to manage the inflation risk. On the economic data front, both US retail sales and industrial output rose more than expected in October. Gold has been rising for the past two weeks to 5-month highs as investors bought it to hedge against rising inflation figures. The annual inflation rate in the US accelerated to a three-decade high of 6.2% in October, while the Euro Area consumer prices jumped 4.1%, the most since July 2008 and in Germany inflation hit the highest since 1993 at 4.5%. In China, prices advanced faster than expected to a 13-month high of 1.5%.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/silver

Silver prices rallied to an over 3-month high of $25 per troy ounce, lifted by reignited inflation woes after US consumer prices jumped 6.2% in October, the steepest hike in the CPI since 1990. The precious metal also took advantage of US Fed Chairman Powell’s remarks last week, saying the central bank will be patient on the rate hike program. Earlier, US household inflation expectations accelerated to a record high of 5.7%, as consumers continued to suffer from rising household expenses, a New York Fed Survey showed.

and today Gold is trying to hold the $1775 line......enjoy the price of Oil today????Inflation ......poof Fed will raise rates (my bet 2 times in 2022 and 3 in 2023....gold will drop $50 on each rate increase...Gold end of 2023.......You will be lucky if it does not break under $1500....

Silver???? lucky to be over $20 at the end of 2023