Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN December 13, 2021 EU natural gas prices soared to €115 per megawatt-hour, the highest since a record €116.02 reached on October 5th amid growing tensions between the US and Russia over the troop buildup near Ukraine’s border, fueling concerns about harsh sanctions being slapped on Russian gas exports. Additionally, output from one of the largest oil and gas fields in Europe, the Troll field off the coast of Norway, was halted upon suffering an unplanned outage, which was expected to cause a 13% drop in gas shipments from Norway. Also, Germany’s new chancellor Olaf Scholz said his country felt responsible for ensuring Ukraine’s gas transit operations remained successful, at a time when the Nord Stream 2 pipeline awaits approval from German authorities https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN December 13, 2021 US natural gas futures extended gains to $4 per million British thermal units in the third week of December, underpinned by expectations of higher demand towards the end of the year, as the weather cools. Additionally, domestic stockpiles shrank more than expected in the first week of the month, as government readings showed a 59 bcf draw compared with market forecasts of 54 bcf. Since peaking at a 12-year high of $6.3 on October 5th, US natural gas futures have plunged more than 40% and diverged from the UK and the Dutch contracts, which continued to trade close to record highs. Any concerns about tightness in the US gas market have virtually disappeared following a so-far warm winter heating season, which has dampened domestic demand, while inventories had enough natural gas for the coming winter months. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN December 13, 2021 REUTERS https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-natural-gas-futures-nearly-133449617.html U.S. natural gas futures up nearly 4% on soaring European prices Dec 13 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose almost 4% to a fresh one-week high on Monday on forecasts for colder weather and higher demand next week than previously expected and an 11% jump in European gas prices that should keep U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports near record highs. Gas prices in Europe soared to their highest since hitting a record in early October on rising demand expectations and renewed concerns that Russia will hold back gas exports to Europe over delays to the startup of Gazprom PAO's Nord Stream 2 gas pipe from Russia to Germany. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Sunday that gas is unlikely to flow through Nord Stream 2 if Russia renews its aggression against Ukraine. Front-month gas futures was up 14.8 cents, or 3.8%, to $4.073 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 8:14 a.m. EST (1314 GMT), putting the contract on track for its highest close since Dec. 3 for a second day in a row. Before the latest price increase, speculators had cut their net long positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges for a second week in a row last week to their lowest since June 2020 on expectations the United States will have more than enough gas for the winter heating season. In recent months, global gas prices hit record highs as utilities around the world scrambled for LNG cargoes from the United States and elsewhere to replenish low stockpiles in Europe and meet surging demand in Asia, where energy shortfalls have caused power blackouts in China. U.S. futures jumped to a 12-year high in early October but have since pulled back because the United States has plenty of gas in storage and ample production for winter. Overseas prices were currently trading about 10 times higher than U.S. futures. Analysts have said European inventories were about 20% below normal for this time of year, compared with just 3% below normal in the United States. Looking ahead, many analysts said milder-than-normal weather expected in the coming weeks will allow U.S. utilities to leave enough gas in storage to cause stockpiles to reach above-normal levels by mid-December. That would be the first time storage would be at above-normal levels since April. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has averaged 96.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December, putting it on track to top the monthly record of 96.5 bcfd in November. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would jump from 110.3 bcfd this week to 123.7 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally colder. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has averaged 12.0 bcfd so far in December now that the sixth train at Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana is producing LNG. That compares to 11.4 bcfd in November and a monthly record of 11.5 bcfd in April. With gas prices around $38 per mmBtu in Europe and $35 in Asia, compared with about $4 in the United States, traders said buyers around the world would keep purchasing all the LNG the United States can produce. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Dec 10 Dec 3 Dec 10 average (Forecast) (Actual) Dec 10 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): -72 -59 -118 -114 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,433 3,505 3,743 3,481 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average -1.4% -2.5% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2020 (2016-2020) Henry Hub 3.97 3.93 2.58 2.13 2.66 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 37.67 34.92 5.82 3.24 5.19 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 35.22 35.19 9.46 4.22 6.49 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 376 346 409 414 411 U.S. GFS CDDs 10 9 2 5 4 U.S. GFS TDDs 386 355 411 419 415 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 96.6 96.8 97.0 91.3 84.7 U.S. Imports from Canada 8.7 8.5 9.1 9.5 8.9 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.3 Total U.S. Supply 105.3 105.3 106.1 101.2 93.9 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 3.6 3.7 3.6 2.8 3.0 U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.6 4.6 U.S. LNG Exports 12.1 12.3 12.3 11.0 5.0 U.S. Commercial 13.8 12.7 15.9 16.7 15.0 U.S. Residential 21.9 20.6 26.8 28.2 25.4 U.S. Power Plant 28.4 25.1 27.3 30.1 25.8 U.S. Industrial 23.8 23.2 24.7 25.6 24.6 U.S. Plant Fuel 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.4 2.4 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 95.3 88.9 102.3 107.9 98.1 Total U.S. Demand 116.6 110.3 123.7 127.3 110.7 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Dec 17 Dec 10 Dec 3 Nov 26 Nov 19 Wind 16 13 11 13 14 Solar 2 2 2 2 2 Hydro 7 7 6 6 6 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 1 1 1 1 1 Natural Gas 33 36 37 34 35 Coal 17 19 19 20 19 Nuclear 22 21 22 22 21 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 3.66 3.67 Transco Z6 New York 2.95 3.21 PG&E Citygate 5.09 5.25 Dominion South 3.04 2.92 Chicago Citygate 3.50 3.43 Algonquin Citygate 3.83 3.67 SoCal Citygate 7.70 7.37 Waha Hub 3.27 3.28 AECO 3.08 3.02 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day Prior Day New England 39.25 56.50 PJM West 18.50 24.25 Ercot North 33.50 31.50 Mid C 59.50 38.00 Palo Verde 37.75 38.00 SP-15 49.25 55.25 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino Editing by Paul Simao) 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN December 13, 2021 https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/european-gas-and-power-prices-jump-supply-shortage-fears-erupt European Gas And Power Prices Jump As Supply Shortage Fears Erupt by Tyler Durden Monday, Dec 13, 2021 - 10:59 AM A combination of Russia's inactive Nord Stream 2 pipeline and cooler weather forecast through the end of December sparked a rally in European natural gas futures. German power prices surged to a record high while French power prices jumped to a decade high. Concerns that Nord Stream 2 pipeline won't operate this winter season comes as the new German chancellor Olof Scholz said his government would "do everything" possible to make sure natgas flows continue through Ukraine and not the latest Russian to German undersea pipeline. Last month, German energy regulators suspended Nord Stream 2's certification process. The US has also sanctioned companies affiliated with the pipeline's construction. On top of the geopolitical uncertainties, mixed with tight natgas supplies across Europe, some of the lowest in a decade, a new 14-day weather forecast shows cooler than average weather, which will boost natgas demand. Benchmark Dutch front-month gas futures jumped as high as 10% to 116.39 euros a megawatt-hour on Monday, the highest since Oct. 6. UK gas futures also soared 10% to 294.07 pounds. Cooler weather on the continent has increased the power demand. German power contracts added 9.7% to a record 205 euros per megawatt-hour. French power contracts rose to 329 euros per megawatt-hour, the highest ever. ... 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Starschy + 211 PM December 13, 2021 You may consider to shop direct by Gazprom. This may result in a 30% price reduction. http://www.gazpromexport.ru/en/esp/ 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN December 14, 2021 Tuesday December 14th (U.S.) European Gas Prices Soar to Highest Level Since Early Octoberhttps://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-price-fundamental-daily-forecast-short-term-outlook-bearish-as-winter-delay-continues-837807 …On Monday, gas prices in Europe soared to their highest level since hitting a record in early October on rising demand expectations and renewed concerns that Russia will hold back gas exports to Europe over delays to the startup of Gasprom PAO’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipe from Russia to Germany. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Sunday that gas is unlikely to flow through Nord Stream 2 if Russia renews its aggression against Ukraine… …Meanwhile, expensive prices in Europe and Asia continue to drive demand for U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). Gas prices in Europe are around $38 per mmBtu. In Asia, they come in at $35. This compares with about $4 in the United States….[This really highlights the value of distribution. A product in the U.S. can be sold for 10X in Europe.] EU natural gas prices soared to a fresh record high of €119 per megawatt-hour underpinned by a double-whammy of cold weather forecasts in late December and fears of supply disruptions. Germany’s new government took a stronger stance against the Nord Stream 2 pipeline this week, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz saying it wouldn’t allow the new pipeline to undermine gas transit operations in Ukraine and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock warning that the pipeline couldn’t operate until it was in accordance with EU law. At the same time, the EU, the UK, and the US were reportedly mulling further economic sanctions against Moscow, including the energy sector, to deter an invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Belarusian President reiterated threats about cutting gas flows through the key Yamal-Europe pipeline in a response to new sanctions, at a time when natural gas storage levels in Europe stand more than 10% below seasonal norms.https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN December 14, 2021 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/eu-gas-extends-rally-crunch-073222828.html Bloomberg EU Gas Extends Rally as Crunch Risks Spilling Into Next Winter European natural gas surged again after closing at a record high on Monday as uncertainty over Russian supplies threatened to extend the energy crunch into next winter. A geopolitical crisis is brewing as Russia builds troops at the border with Ukraine. A potential invasion would come at the height of the European winter, according to U.S. and Ukrainian intelligence. That could not just delay the start of the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, but also risk other supplies at a time inventories are running dangerously low. Why Russia-Ukraine Tensions Are So Hard to Defuse: QuickTake European Union leaders will on Thursday hold a summit to address the situation. They will discuss ways to respond to the energy crisis, the resurgence of the pandemic and Russia-Ukraine position. In what could be another flashpoint, the bloc wants to set a deadline to end long-term gas supply deals that are favored by Russia. Europe was facing a dire energy situation even before the geopolitical tensions flared up. As economies reopen, demand is roaring back and supply just can’t keep up, with the continent’s large network of renewable power unable to plug the gap most of the year due to low wind speeds. The weather is turning cold this weekend, and gas inventories are the lowest on record for the time of the year. Power prices have also surged in recent days. German electricity for delivery next year traded near record highs, while futures for first quarter on 2022 in the Nordics climbed to a all-time high. “Spot gas and power prices have quadrupled, reflecting market fears of gas shortages over the winter to come,” Antonella Bianchessi, an analyst at Citigroup Inc., said in a report. Benchmark European gas traded in the Netherlands jumped as much as 5.9% and was 2.5% higher at 119 euros a megawatt-hour as of 12:40 p.m. local time. The U.K. equivalent gained 2.4% to 301.46 pence a therm. Omicron Spread The spread of the omicron variant could, however, bring some relief from surging prices as nations impose more restrictions, hitting economic growth and energy demand. Global oil markets have returned to surplus and face an even bigger oversupply early next year as the new strain impedes international travel, the International Energy Agency said. “Natural gas markets are vulnerable to price shocks if we experience the below-average temperatures we experienced last winter,” S&P Global Platts said in its energy outlook for next year. “Currently, Russia is the primary source of the world’s spare capacity and delivering that supply to markets eager to meet demand and rebuild storage will dominate balances and prices in 2022.” The key Nord Stream 2 pipeline that will bring Russian gas into Germany could take six to eight months to start while it undergoes a certification process before the German government signs off on it. “The delayed Nord Stream 2 pipeline is essential to boosting Russian gas supply into Europe as Russia is shifting away from” sending supplies through Ukraine and via its e-auctions, S&P Global Platts said. It expects the link to start operations in June, but “further delays would cause European buyers to scramble for alternative gas supply, boosting not only European gas prices, but global LNG prices.” EUROPE GAS OUTAGES: Elgin Frankin Set to Restart Supply Tuesday 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Piotr Berman + 82 December 15, 2021 " In what could be another flashpoint, the bloc wants to set a deadline to end long-term gas supply deals that are favored by Russia." This raises some questions. 1. Why LNG sails to Asia, when European prices are so attractive? One answer is that Asians bid higher. But we know nothing about the prices there, so they are hidden in bilateral contracts. And there were some news about long term contract in which Americans and Qatar participated. So Asians "out-contracted" Europe rather than "outpaid". Now there is too little LNG not locked in contracts or in Gazprom strategies to bring European prices down. 2. Why Americans and Qatar show such preference for long contracts, if they have lower prices, just like Gazprom? Huge investments require predictability over longer time horizon. Small producers need bank loans, and banks need solid assurances about profits in the years ahead. Large producers need predictability as well to allocate resources. 3. Aha. So Europe suffers by eliminating contracts "favored by Russia", because other producers have similar preferences. Are they masochists? While I filled the blanks above with speculations based on anecdotes (rather than statistics that I could not find), here I can offer "pure" speculations. The issues are complicated, so the public may complain but with no clear targets. People who concoct the European energy packets have "solid economic theories" that make weird assumptions, namely, that all stages of the natural gas market can be regulated by EU to achieve free market ideal that is not favored by Russia and other major producers. The latter tend to be outside the continent... Secondly, some "free market oriented" directives target Russia alone, and that seemed "pleasurable". 4. Why USA produces so little LNG even if the production of NG is huge and prices are lower than elsewhere? A Russian YouTube bragged about a new LNG project in Russia that will save 1/3 of the liquification cost by using a technology obtained from Total, reducing the cost from 27 billion dollars to mere 20. That suggests that those projects are to big to pop up like mushroom In response to temporarily good profitability prospects. But it could be that American regulators are less "free market" minded than Eurocrats and maintain American price advantage in NG in some ways. 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN December 15, 2021 https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/European-Gas-Prices-Soar-On-Nord-Stream-2-Block-In-Germany.html European Gas Prices Soar On Nord Stream 2 Block In Germany By Irina Slav - Dec 15, 2021, 9:00 AM CST Gas prices in Europe soared following Germany's decision to not approve the Nord Stream 2 pipeline yet This means that the commissioning of the pipeline could be delayed until March next year. Natural gas prices in Europe soared higher after Germany indicated this week it had no intention of approving the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project before requirements under German law were satisfied. However, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock also said that the situation in Ukraine was also a factor in the German government's decision on the matter. "In the event of further escalation, this gas pipeline could not come into service," Annalena Baerbock told German media, as quoted by AFP, earlier this week. The remarks follow a comment from Germany's new Prime Minister, Olaf Scholtz, that "It would be a serious mistake to believe that violating the borders of a European country would remain without consequences." Meanwhile, the certification process for the infrastructure has been suspended by the German authorities because the pipeline must have an operator that is incorporated under German law. This means that the commissioning of the pipeline could be delayed until March next year. It could be delayed even further because after Germany approves it—if it does—the project will have to go to the European Commission, which would be tasked with making sure it complies with EU regulations. As a result, natural gas prices on the continent topped $1,400 per 1,000 cubic meters for the January futures. New threats from Belarus that it would turn the transit gas tap off for Europe if the EU decided to impose more sanctions on Minsk did not help matters, adding to upward price pressure. Meanwhile, the European Union is this week discussing measures to tackle the gas shortage that is fueling the price rally and threatening energy supply this winter. Among the measures are joint gas buying for member states and more disciplined gas storage management to create strategic reserves to protect the countries and consumers. By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com More Top Reads From Oilprice.com: The World’s Top Automakers Are Doubling Down On Electric Vehicles Investors See Peak Demand Happening Much Further In The Future Oil Prices Under Pressure Despite An Optimistic Outlook Latest articles from Irina Slav European Gas Prices Soar On Nord Stream 2 Block In Germany Published 15 December 2021 | viewed 271 times Natural gas prices in Europe soared higher after Germany indicated this week it had no intention of approving the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project… Europe Plans To Ditch Long-Term Natural Gas Deals Published 14 December 2021 | viewed 1,391 times The European Union plans to quit long-term gas supply contracts before 2049. At the same time, it plans to enhance the security of its gas… HSBC Sets A Deadline For Its Asian Clients To Quit Coal Published 14 December 2021 | viewed 1,375 times HSBC will stop providing services to corporate clients that have involvement in coal as it seeks to phase out all financing for the coal industry… Oil Prices Under Pressure Despite An Optimistic Outlook Published 14 December 2021 | viewed 7,186 times After a respectable rally last week, oil prices are set to come under pressure as some European countries begin to tighten coronavirus restrictions amid the… Banks Put Pressure On Oil Companies To Go Green Published 13 December 2021 | viewed 2,363 times Earlier this month, Citi’s chief executive Jane Fraser said the bank might have to drop some clients if they don’t fit in with its climate… Germany Threatens To Shutter Nord Stream In Case of Ukraine “Escalation” Published 13 December 2021 | viewed 5,565 times Germany will freeze the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in case of any “escalation” between Russia and Ukraine, the new German foreign minister said, citing… Saudi Arabia Set To Book Its First Budget Surplus In 10-Years As Oil Rises Published 13 December 2021 | viewed 2,521 times Saudi Arabia expects to book its first budget surplus in close to ten years in the next financial year, coming in at 2.5 percent of… Jittery Oil Market Could Trigger Consolidation In The Permian Published 11 December 2021 | viewed 13,515 times The U.S. shale industry first went on a consolidation spree back in 2015 when prices tanked after Saudi Arabia turned the taps on full in… Pemex Plans Cut In Oil Exports In 2022 Published 10 December 2021 | viewed 4,951 times Mexico’s Pemex plans to reduce the amount of oil it exports next year and use it domestically instead, Bloomberg has reported, as the country seeks… Report: U.S. Oil Export Ban Not On The Table Published 10 December 2021 | viewed 4,987 times The U.S. administration is not considering a ban on crude oil exports as a means of bringing down retail fuel prices, Reuters has reported, citing… Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN December 15, 2021 https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas UK Natural Gas UK natural gas prices traded around 320 pence a therm on Wednesday, close to an all-time high of 323.4 pence reached in the prior session, bolstered by colder-than-usual weather and tight supplies. Traders priced upside risks stemming from possible harsh economic sanctions being slapped on Russia’s energy exports, as the EU, the UK, and the US pressed Putin to cease the escalation of tensions in Ukraine’s border with Russia, which added to concerns about delays in the approval of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Additionally, output from one of the largest oil and gas fields in Europe, the Troll field off the coast of Norway, was halted upon suffering an unplanned outage, which was expected to cause a 13% drop in gas shipments from Norway. Meanwhile, fears that the Belarusian President would cut flows transiting through the key Yamal-Europe pipeline eased, after volumes were seen increasing earlier this morning. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN December 15, 2021 U.S. Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Speculators Betting on Cold Temps to Emerge December 26-30 By:James Hyerczyk U.S. natural gas futures are edging higher on Wednesday after a two-day setback on renewed forecasts calling for the return of colder temperatures over the next two weeks. The news is contributing to this week’s volatile trade that showed the market trade higher on Monday due to cooler forecasts and then lower on Tuesday after updated forecasts reduced some of the cooler expectations. At 13:44 GMT, March natural gas futures are trading $3.730, up $0.111 or +3.07%. Are we entering a weather-driven market? Too early to tell, but we do know traders are supporting the market early Wednesday on weather related changes despite potentially bearish near record U.S. output, a decline in U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) exports this week, a 4% slide in European gas prices and forecasts calling for less U.S. demand next week than previously expected. Short-Term Weather Outlook According to NatGasWeather for December 15-20, “One Pacific storm will track through the Rockies, while a second slams into the West Coast, with both rain, snow and chilly highs of 10s to 40s. However, the rest of the U.S. will be much warmer than normal as strong upper high pressure rules with highs of 40s to 60s from the Midwest to the Northeast and 60s to 80s over the southern U.S. National demand will increase this weekend into the start of next week as a cold system tracks across the northern U.S. with highs of 10s to 40s, although mild to warm over the southern ½ of the U.S. with highs of 40s to 70s. Overall, national demand will be very low through Friday, then moderate this weekend.” Output on the Rise Data provider Refinitiv said output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has averaged 96.53 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December, just shy of November’s monthly record of 96.54 bcfd. Daily March Natural Gas Daily Forecast Technically, the main trend is down. A trade through $3.503 will signal a resumption of the downtrend with potential targets coming in at $3.430 and $3.186. The market is in no position to change the main trend to up. The minor trend is also down. However, a trade through $3.941 will change the minor trend to up. This will shift momentum to the upside. Today’s price action will be determined by trader reaction to a minor pivot at $3.722. On the upside, the major resistance zone is $3.964 to $4.378. The midday forecasts could set the tone today with traders mostly focused on temperatures for December 26 -30. Unless the midday weather data shows colder trends during this time period, we could see further weakness. For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar. https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-price-fundamental-daily-forecast-speculators-betting-on-cold-temps-to-emerge-december-26-30-841402 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN December 15, 2021 https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-price-forecast-natural-gas-markets-continue-to-drift-lower-8-840190 WATCH ONE MINUTE VIDEO in article! Natural Gas Price Forecast By:Christopher Lewis It is worth noting that we have gapped below the 200 day EMA, turned around to fill that gap on Monday, and then have since fallen. I think this is probably what we will be paying the most attention to going forward, at least from a technical analysis standpoint. Based upon the massive triangle that I have on the chart, the projected move is down to the $3.00 level, which is an area that has been a major magnet for price in the past. With that being said, I believe that we get there over the next couple of weeks, especially as mild temperatures in the United States will work against any type of pricing power, and of course the fact that we are already pricing in January gas, meaning that temperatures will start to rise shortly thereafter as well. [Chris Lewis correctly forecast the technical trade to the $6 level way back when NatGas was under $3.] 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
turbguy + 1,398 December 15, 2021 8 hours ago, Tom Nolan said: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/European-Gas-Prices-Soar-On-Nord-Stream-2-Block-In-Germany.html European Gas Prices Soar On Nord Stream 2 Block In Germany By Irina Slav - Dec 15, 2021, 9:00 AM CST Gas prices in Europe soared following Germany's decision to not approve the Nord Stream 2 pipeline yet This means that the commissioning of the pipeline could be delayed until March next year. Natural gas prices in Europe soared higher after Germany indicated this week it had no intention of approving the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project before requirements under German law were satisfied. However, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock also said that the situation in Ukraine was also a factor in the German government's decision on the matter. "In the event of further escalation, this gas pipeline could not come into service," Annalena Baerbock told German media, as quoted by AFP, earlier this week. The remarks follow a comment from Germany's new Prime Minister, Olaf Scholtz, that "It would be a serious mistake to believe that violating the borders of a European country would remain without consequences." Meanwhile, the certification process for the infrastructure has been suspended by the German authorities because the pipeline must have an operator that is incorporated under German law. This means that the commissioning of the pipeline could be delayed until March next year. It could be delayed even further because after Germany approves it—if it does—the project will have to go to the European Commission, which would be tasked with making sure it complies with EU regulations. As a result, natural gas prices on the continent topped $1,400 per 1,000 cubic meters for the January futures. New threats from Belarus that it would turn the transit gas tap off for Europe if the EU decided to impose more sanctions on Minsk did not help matters, adding to upward price pressure. Meanwhile, the European Union is this week discussing measures to tackle the gas shortage that is fueling the price rally and threatening energy supply this winter. Among the measures are joint gas buying for member states and more disciplined gas storage management to create strategic reserves to protect the countries and consumers. By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com More Top Reads From Oilprice.com: The World’s Top Automakers Are Doubling Down On Electric Vehicles Investors See Peak Demand Happening Much Further In The Future Oil Prices Under Pressure Despite An Optimistic Outlook Latest articles from Irina Slav European Gas Prices Soar On Nord Stream 2 Block In Germany Published 15 December 2021 | viewed 271 times Natural gas prices in Europe soared higher after Germany indicated this week it had no intention of approving the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project… Europe Plans To Ditch Long-Term Natural Gas Deals Published 14 December 2021 | viewed 1,391 times The European Union plans to quit long-term gas supply contracts before 2049. At the same time, it plans to enhance the security of its gas… HSBC Sets A Deadline For Its Asian Clients To Quit Coal Published 14 December 2021 | viewed 1,375 times HSBC will stop providing services to corporate clients that have involvement in coal as it seeks to phase out all financing for the coal industry… Oil Prices Under Pressure Despite An Optimistic Outlook Published 14 December 2021 | viewed 7,186 times After a respectable rally last week, oil prices are set to come under pressure as some European countries begin to tighten coronavirus restrictions amid the… Banks Put Pressure On Oil Companies To Go Green Published 13 December 2021 | viewed 2,363 times Earlier this month, Citi’s chief executive Jane Fraser said the bank might have to drop some clients if they don’t fit in with its climate… Germany Threatens To Shutter Nord Stream In Case of Ukraine “Escalation” Published 13 December 2021 | viewed 5,565 times Germany will freeze the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in case of any “escalation” between Russia and Ukraine, the new German foreign minister said, citing… Saudi Arabia Set To Book Its First Budget Surplus In 10-Years As Oil Rises Published 13 December 2021 | viewed 2,521 times Saudi Arabia expects to book its first budget surplus in close to ten years in the next financial year, coming in at 2.5 percent of… Jittery Oil Market Could Trigger Consolidation In The Permian Published 11 December 2021 | viewed 13,515 times The U.S. shale industry first went on a consolidation spree back in 2015 when prices tanked after Saudi Arabia turned the taps on full in… Pemex Plans Cut In Oil Exports In 2022 Published 10 December 2021 | viewed 4,951 times Mexico’s Pemex plans to reduce the amount of oil it exports next year and use it domestically instead, Bloomberg has reported, as the country seeks… Report: U.S. Oil Export Ban Not On The Table Published 10 December 2021 | viewed 4,987 times The U.S. administration is not considering a ban on crude oil exports as a means of bringing down retail fuel prices, Reuters has reported, citing… I suppose there is a stop valve at each end... 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Starschy + 211 PM December 16, 2021 You may consider to shop direct by Gazprom. This may result in a 30% price reduction. http://www.gazpromexport.ru/en/esp/ Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Starschy + 211 PM December 16, 2021 Gaz prices reaches new height in Rotterdam we have now 1600 USD for 1000 m3. (ICE) It will be cold in the UK for the next 3 month's. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN December 17, 2021 https://oilprice.com/Energy/Gas-Prices/Europes-Gas-Prices-Plunge-As-Russia-Signals-More-Supply-Is-Coming.html Europe’s Gas Prices Plunge As Russia Signals More Supply Is Coming By Tsvetana Paraskova - Dec 17, 2021, 1:00 PM CST The European natural gas benchmark prices tumbled by 15% early on Friday On Thursday, the German regulator reviewing the certification of Nord Stream 2 said it would not make a decision before July 2022 On Friday, prices plunged as Gazprom signaled an increase in supply Join Our Community The European natural gas benchmark prices tumbled by 15% early on Friday after Russia’s gas giant Gazprom booked last-minute capacity on a pipeline to ship extra gas to Germany via Poland in the coming days. The benchmark price for Europe at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) has seen some wild swings this week, most of which as a result of news and reports about current and expected Russian gas supply to Europe. This highlights the sensitivity of European gas prices to Russian gas shipments amid the lowest levels of gas in European storage in a decade. Traders are watching closely every tender in which Gazprom is set to book pipeline capacity via the main pipeline routes to Germany and Poland. Every time Russia doesn’t book too much additional capacity, Europe’s benchmark gas prices jump. The market is also closely following the daily natural gas flows on the Yamal-Europe pipeline. Earlier this week, Europe’s gas prices surged again to near-record highs after Germany indicated it had no intention of approving Nord Stream 2 before requirements under German law were satisfied. However, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock also said that the situation in Ukraine was also a factor in the German government’s decision on the matter. On Thursday, the German regulator reviewing the certification of Nord Stream 2 said it would not make a decision before July 2022. On Friday, however, the market was calmed (for now) by Gazprom booking in the last minute around 30 percent of pipeline capacity to deliver gas to Germany in within-day auctions. As a result, the European gas prices opened down by 10% on Friday, having hit a fresh record closing high yesterday of over $45/MMBtu, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said. The benchmark price at the Dutch hub could slump further if Russia finally decides “to turn up the taps” and start shipping extra gas on top of its contract obligations, Hansen told Bloomberg. By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com More Top Reads From Oilprice.com: Russia Puts The Blame On Europe As Energy Crisis Worsens U.S. Onshore Gas Flaring Falls To Lowest Level Since 2012 The White House Just Put The Oil Export Ban Rumor To Rest Latest articles from Tsvetana Russian Lawmaker: Nord Stream 2 Could Become Operational Next Month Published 17 December 2021 | viewed 104 times The Russia-led Nord Stream 2 pipeline could start shipping natural gas to Germany as early as next month, as Europe would not want to drag… Europe’s Gas Prices Plunge As Russia Signals More Supply Is Coming Published 17 December 2021 | viewed 296 times The European natural gas benchmark prices tumbled by 15% early on Friday after Russia’s gas giant Gazprom booked last-minute capacity on a pipeline to ship… IEA: Coal Set For Record Highs In 2022 Despite Net-Zero Pledges Published 17 December 2021 | viewed 462 times The economic rebound from the pandemic is taking coal power generation to a new record high this year, with global coal demand likely hitting another… Oil Prices Dip As Omicron Cases Surge Published 17 December 2021 | viewed 1,891 times Oil prices fell early on Friday and were on track for a weekly loss as the fast-spreading Omicron COVID variant increased concerns about a potential… Rampant Inflation Drives Investors To Commodity ETFs Published 16 December 2021 | viewed 2,002 times It is not only the Fed that has had to recalibrate its view on inflation in recent weeks. Investors and traders are not certain how… U.S. Gasoline Prices Continue To Fall Ahead Of Christmas Published 16 December 2021 | viewed 1,421 times U.S. gasoline prices have dropped by $0.10 since Thanksgiving and are set to fall further until Christmas, although the holiday prices could be close to… China Draws From Stockpiles Again As Refiners Demand More Crude Published 16 December 2021 | viewed 4,688 times Driven by high refinery throughput, China likely drew crude oil from its commercial and strategic inventories in November, according to estimates from Reuters columnist Clyde… Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN December 17, 2021 https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/russia-puts-blame-europe-energy-crisis-worsens Russia Puts The Blame On Europe As Energy Crisis Worsens by Tyler Durden Friday, Dec 17, 2021 - 02:00 AM Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com, The EU is reconsidering its position on extending long-term natural gas contracts. Russia has maintained that the contracts are beneficial for Europe and moving away from them would be a mistake. Russia even went as far as suggesting that Europe’s current energy crisis is its own fault. The European Union (EU) is reportedly reconsidering its position on extending long-term natural gas contracts beyond 2049 as part of reforms in its natural gas market to meet the net-zero by 2050 goal. Should the European Commission’s proposal be endorsed by EU heads of state and government this week, putting a timeline to the end of long-term gas contracts would open another rift with Russia, which provides one-third of Europe’s gas supply via pipelines under long-term deals. The measure, if approved by the EU, would run against Russia’s position that long-term deals are beneficial for Europe and moving away from them and increasing reliance on liquefied natural gas (LNG) was and will be a mistake. Some EU member states are wary of what they perceive as Moscow using gas as a political tool to influence geopolitics. However, as it stands, especially with the low levels of gas in storage and surging gas and energy prices, supply from Russia and Russia’s willingness to provide additional volumes to Europe on top of its contractual commitments has been and will be a key driver of the gas market and prices at European hubs this winter. Despite the current crisis, the EU’s executive branch, the European Commission, is reportedly drafting plans to quit long-term gas supply contracts by 2049. At the same time, it plans to enhance the security of its gas supply, Bloomberg reported this week, citing a draft document prepared by the Commission. The EU has struggled with insufficient gas supply for months now, and the situation is not about to change as Russia continues to supply precisely what it had committed to deliver under long-term contracts. This has earned it accusations of using gas as a political weapon and increased the EU’s determination to reduce its reliance on Russian gas. Russia, for its part, denies any accusations about using gas for geopolitics and reaffirms it supplies the volumes of gas to its customers in Europe as per long-term contracts. And it says Europe’s decisions to move away from long-term deals are one of the reasons for the current gas crisis. “[T]he practices of our European partners [are to blame]. These practices have reaffirmed that, properly speaking, they have made mistakes. We were talking with the former European Commission; all of its activities were aimed at curtailing the so-called long-term contracts and at transitioning to gas exchange trading,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said in early October during a meeting to discuss Russia’s energy industry. “It turned out – and today this is absolutely obvious – that this policy is erroneous, erroneous for the reason that it fails to take into account the gas market specifics dependent on a large number of uncertainty factors,” Putin said, per the Kremlin’s website, just as Europe’s gas prices hit record highs. Weather and Russian gas flows will be the drivers of Europe’s gas market and prices this winter. Limited supply from Russia—which is sending all the gas volumes per the long-term contracts but is not shipping too much extra supply—and a cold winter could leave European gas storage at very low levels, or even deplete the storage sites, analysts say. With the potential in-service date for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline still in limbo, the EU is scrambling to ensure both its supply and to possibly reduce, in the future, its dependence on Russia. The leaders of the European Union member states are also expected to discuss this week a new system to jointly buy natural gas in order to create strategic reserves to protect the countries and consumers from gas shortages and soaring energy prices. Despite the green agenda of the EU, gas will still play an important role in the energy markets on the continent. At the onset of the gas and electricity crisis in Europe this autumn, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said: “The links between electricity and gas markets are not going to go away anytime soon. Gas remains an important tool for balancing electricity markets in many regions today.” Latest articles from Tsvetana Russian Lawmaker: Nord Stream 2 Could Become Operational Next Month Published 17 December 2021 | viewed 209 times The Russia-led Nord Stream 2 pipeline could start shipping natural gas to Germany as early as next month, as Europe would not want to drag… Europe’s Gas Prices Plunge As Russia Signals More Supply Is Coming Published 17 December 2021 | viewed 384 times The European natural gas benchmark prices tumbled by 15% early on Friday after Russia’s gas giant Gazprom booked last-minute capacity on a pipeline to ship… IEA: Coal Set For Record Highs In 2022 Despite Net-Zero Pledges Published 17 December 2021 | viewed 479 times The economic rebound from the pandemic is taking coal power generation to a new record high this year, with global coal demand likely hitting another… Oil Prices Dip As Omicron Cases Surge Published 17 December 2021 | viewed 2,002 times Oil prices fell early on Friday and were on track for a weekly loss as the fast-spreading Omicron COVID variant increased concerns about a potential… Rampant Inflation Drives Investors To Commodity ETFs Published 16 December 2021 | viewed 2,015 times It is not only the Fed that has had to recalibrate its view on inflation in recent weeks. Investors and traders are not certain how… U.S. Gasoline Prices Continue To Fall Ahead Of Christmas Published 16 December 2021 | viewed 1,431 times U.S. gasoline prices have dropped by $0.10 since Thanksgiving and are set to fall further until Christmas, although the holiday prices could be close to… China Draws From Stockpiles Again As Refiners Demand More Crude Published 16 December 2021 | viewed 4,727 times Driven by high refinery throughput, China likely drew crude oil from its commercial and strategic inventories in November, according to estimates from Reuters columnist Clyde… Europe’s Energy Crisis Just Got Worse Published 16 December 2021 | viewed 5,205 times On top of an ongoing natural gas crunch, Europe faces the winter season with reduced nuclear output in France, exacerbating the energy crisis and leaving… Jet Fuel Continues To Hold Back Crude Demand Recovery Published 16 December 2021 | viewed 2,809 times Global demand for oil products other than jet fuel made a full recovery to pre-crisis levels in the third quarter of this year, thanks to… Germany Pushes Back Nord Stream 2 Decision To July Published 16 December 2021 | viewed 1,339 times The German regulator reviewing the certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline will not make a decision before July 2022, the president of the… Moody's: Higher Costs Could Cap Oil Company Earnings Published 15 December 2021 | viewed 1,261 times Oil prices are likely to stay higher than $60 per barrel over the medium term, Moody’s said on Wednesday, as reported by LiveSquawk. According to… Russia Puts The Blame On Europe As Energy Crisis Worsens Published 15 December 2021 | viewed 4,899 times The European Union (EU) is reportedly reconsidering its position on extending long-term natural gas contracts beyond 2049 as part of reforms in its natural gas… Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
El Gato + 251 Bs December 18, 2021 So to sum this up in a nutshell, Western European leaders created this Catastrophe due to their arrogance in relying on green energies, which in itself is nothing but a huge ponzi scheme., And Russia is playing politics, (no matter what they say, its ALL politics), and Germany's pissed because they want to exert influence, but can't because of the gas they need. They created this mess in W Europe, they can stew in it. US is trying to bring more LNG capacity online, it just takes time to build the dang facilities. Plus has anybody ever looked into LNG shipping capacity? That has to be about maxed out too by now. Though I imagine they are trying to build them as fast as they can in China and Korea. US is projected to be the #1 exporter of LNG next year when all the new capacity comes online 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN December 18, 2021 5 hours ago, El Gato said: So to sum this up in a nutshell, Western European leaders created this Catastrophe due to their arrogance in relying on green energies, which in itself is nothing but a huge ponzi scheme., And Russia is playing politics, (no matter what they say, its ALL politics), and Germany's pissed because they want to exert influence, but can't because of the gas they need. They created this mess in W Europe, they can stew in it. US is trying to bring more LNG capacity online, it just takes time to build the dang facilities. Plus has anybody ever looked into LNG shipping capacity? That has to be about maxed out too by now. Though I imagine they are trying to build them as fast as they can in China and Korea. US is projected to be the #1 exporter of LNG next year when all the new capacity comes online This article by Irina Slav highlights what El Gato said Are Carbon Taxes To Blame For Europe’s Energy Crisis? By Irina Slav - Sep 27, 2021, 4:00 PM CDT https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Are-Carbon-Taxes-To-Blame-For-Europes-Energy-Crisis.html Europe’s energy crisis was, in part, caused by the desire of governments to make fossil fuels ‘prohibitively expensive’ The common claim that energy can be clean, reliable, and cheap has fallen flat, teaching policymakers a painful lesson The harsh reality about carbon taxes is that they increase the cost of living and likely reduce quality of life The European energy crisis seems to be the only thing anyone is talking about these days. Analysts opine over why it happened and how likely it is to spread globally (very, is the answer). The focus of most analysis has been overwhelmingly on the supply and demand gap that caused the crisis. In contrast, the underlying reason for the crunch hasn’t received nearly as much attention. The fact is, Europe has been producing a lot less gas of its own in its drive to ‘go green’. It has made sure nobody really wants to produce gas because carbon taxes make fossil fuel production a lot more expensive. And there are more of these taxes coming, taxes which will only exacerbate this problem. “Europe’s decarbonisation agenda requires making fossil energy use more expensive. That was always going to be a tough sell. Now that higher prices are suddenly here, it is going to be harder still.” This is what FT’s European Economics Commentator Martin Sandbu wrote in a recent article. Indeed, the price aspect of the energy transition has been kept out of the public eye by government officials and environmentalist organizations who have all been hard at work hammering home the notion of falling costs for wind turbines and solar panels. As the current energy crunch shows, it’s not all about the falling costs of turbines or panels: even if those costs fall to zero, without sun or wind they cannot generate any electricity. The harsh truth about a global energy transition Only a few voices have dared warn that the energy transition will be anything but cheap. One of the big reasons for this would be the strategy of making fossil fuel production and use prohibitively expensive. The noble idea behind this strategy is to discourage fossil fuel use, which would automatically lower emissions. It’s no wonder that carbon taxes are a popular measure for controlling emissions. They are simple and straightforward, and their effect is immediate. However, there are also side effects; these include higher electricity bills and, eventually, higher prices for everything. “Gone will be that £19 London-Mallorca return flight on Ryanair,” wrote the FT’s Simon Kuper in an article about “real carbon taxes.” “Our clothes, petrol, meat and coffee will all get pricier. We’ll need to send an army of workers around the rich world’s houses ripping out boilers, installing heat pumps and insulating attics.” According to Kuper, the current carbon taxes in Europe are more virtue-signaling than climate action. Carbon, he wrote, needs to become a lot more expensive to make a difference in emissions. But with it, everything else will become expensive. Politicians are aware of this, and it is the reason why they have not pushed for much higher taxes, especially after European businesses started complaining about the current carbon prices on the European emissions market. One could look at this as a classic carriage-before-the-horse situation, in which authorities are pushing for what will effectively be a radical change in people’s way of life before they have ensured this change will be affordable for everyone - instead, European governments followed the Paris Agreement blindly. On the other hand, the situation could be seen as unavoidable, as many critics have argued. The reason it was inevitable is that renewable energy and related technology has simply not been around long enough to become as dirt cheap as coal used to be before demand caused prices to skyrocket despite, one might note, carbon taxes. There is also the uncomfortable fact that renewable energy generation depends on the weather, which adds a substantial cost in terms of alternative backup sources of energy, which is what we are currently seeing in Britain and Europe. Carbon taxes, according to pretty much everyone, are the only way to make sure our species reduces its carbon footprint. The higher these are, the better, proponents say, because high carbon taxes would speed up the transition to low-carbon energy. What they don’t say, including all those asset managers making net-zero commitments and urging governments to act more aggressively on emissions, is that this transition to low-carbon energy also means a transition to a lower standard of life. Politicians like to advertise the energy transition as clean, reliable, and cheap. Yet this, as anyone who has ever worked in manufacturing or services knows, is the equivalent of fast, cheap, and good. You can never have all three at once. You could therefore have clean and reliable, but it wouldn’t be cheap. Or you can have clean and cheap but, as we can see, it’s unreliable. As for reliable and cheap - these would be the detested fossil fuels that some governments are trying so hard to get rid of that they are willing to shoot themselves in the leg with carbon taxes. By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN December 18, 2021 https://oilprice.com/Energy/Gas-Prices/UK-Gas-Prices-Break-Records-As-Europes-Energy-Crisis-Worsens.html UK Gas Prices Break Records As Europe’s Energy Crisis Worsens By City A.M - Dec 18, 2021, 10:00 AM CST UK Gas prices have soared by 520 percent this year. The soaring prices reflect current market conditions across Europe, and follow continued geopolitical uncertainty and rising tensions over the 759-mile Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Russia has been accused of putting pressure on Europe by reducing supplies into the continent, in order to get Nord Stream 2 approved, which could reduce Ukraine’s influence in the region. Join Our Community UK gas prices surged to an all-time high of 350p per therm on Thursday, up 520 percent year-to-date amid soaring demand and continued supply concerns across the continent this winter. While prices dropped to 320p per therm on the UK Natural Gas Futures on Friday morning, the benchmark remains ahead of Asia’s liquefied natural gas. Nathan Piper, head of oil and gas research at Investec anticipated that gas prices would remain high as economies recover from the pandemic. He said: “We believe there is a high likelihood of both prolonged and even higher prices through winter with after-effects that could stretch beyond the next two years.” The soaring prices reflect current market conditions across Europe, and follow continued geopolitical uncertainty and rising tensions over the 759-mile Nord Stream 2 pipeline which would double Russian gas exports into Germany. The Kremlin-backed controversial gas project – which would supply 55 billion cubic metres of gas per year – has been completed but awaits approval from German regulators, who are yet to certify the pipeline due to concerns over its governance. Earlier this week, the regulator announced that no decision on certifying the pipeline is expected in the first half of next year. “There will be no decisions in the first half of 2022,” said Bundesnetzagentur (BNetzA) President Jochen Homann. Russia has been accused of putting pressure on Europe by reducing supplies into the continent, in order to get Nord Stream 2 approved, which could reduce Ukraine’s influence in the region. President Vladimir Putin has dismissed these claims as ‘politically motivated blather’. Gazprom’s export growth decreased to less than five percent in recent months – although the energy giant insists it has honored all agreed contracts. However, Germany has warned Russia the pipeline will be rejected if Russia invades Ukraine, with 120,000 troops currently positioned near its eastern border. Investec believed these tensions would inevitably influence prices over winter – while the lack of Nord Stream 2 would continue to limit overall energy supplies. Piper said: “We expect political tensions around the Nord Stream 2 start-up will increase as US and EU consider economic sanctions on Russia with repercussions on EU gas supply, increasing UK and EU gas price volatility.” The analyst also suggested the continued rising costs would make it more difficult for the UK and EU to refill supplies with both countries suffering from decisions to reduce storage capacity as part of the transition to renewable sources. The UK reportedly can only store gas seven days in advance since scrapping its largest rough storage site in Yokrshire. He said: “Continued higher gas prices will make refilling UK/EU gas storage facilities next summer challenging, and EU gas storage is already at multi-year lows. High gas prices this summer meant storage was low going into winter, while LNG continued to be exported to Asia. Next summer, the situation could be more acute.” Soaring wholesale gas prices have already contributed to 25 UK energy firms ceasing trading over the past three months, with over four million customers directly affected. By City AM More Top Reads From Oilprice.com: Russia Puts The Blame On Europe As Energy Crisis Worsens U.S. Onshore Gas Flaring Falls To Lowest Level Since 2012 The White House Just Put The Oil Export Ban Rumor To Rest Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN December 20, 2021 UK natural gas prices rebounded to 357 pence a therm on Monday, close to a record 359 pence hit last week and tracking gains in the Dutch contract, as a drop in flows through the key Yamal-Europe pipeline triggered supply woes. German network operator Gascade measured an hourly volume of 366,735 kWh, compared with more than 1.2 million kWh/h on Saturday and more than 10 million kWh/h on Friday. Prices have rallied to record highs underpinned by cold weather, delays in the highly anticipated approval of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, supply-cut threats from Belarus’ President, and jitters about harsh economic sanctions being slapped on Russia’s energy sector amid growing tensions in eastern Ukraine. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas EU natural gas prices resumed their rally to new all-time highs near €147 per megawatt-hour in the third week of December amid reports that flows through the key Yamal-Europe pipeline have remained thin after falling sharply over the weekend. German network operator Gascade measured an hourly volume of 366,735 kWh, compared with more than 1.2 million kWh/h on Saturday and more than 10 million kWh/h on Friday. The rally in EU natural gas prices has also been fueled by news of delays in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, supply-cut threats from Belarus’ President, and jitters about harsh economic sanctions being slapped on Russia’s energy sector amid growing tensions in eastern Ukraine. Germany’s federal network agency said that gas flows to Europe via the newly built pipeline won’t be made before July 2022. With imports running low and depleting inventories, investors are now fearing that the ongoing natural gas crunch could be extended into next winter. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN December 20, 2021 https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/european-power-prices-set-hit-record-high-monday-amid-cold-spell Europe's Energy Prices Hit New Record Highs As Cold Snap Arrives by Tyler Durden Monday, Dec 20, 2021 - 08:53 AM Update (0853ET): Europe's energy crisis worsened Monday as the Northern Hemisphere winter is about to begin. Colder weather plagued parts of Europe with zero degrees Celsius, straining electricity grids already dealing with unreliable green energy sources (such as low wind power generation) and nuclear power plant outages in France. Let's begin and take a look at soaring day-ahead electricity prices across Europe. Bloomberg's Chief Energy Correspondent Javier Blas pointed out, "electricity prices across much of Europe set fresh and frightening record highs." Blas pointed out that German day-ahead electricity prices are at 431 euros per megawatt-hour, a record high. Investors Have Given Up on a V-Shaped Recovery, BNY's Young Cautions Germany is an economic powerhouse on the continent, and high power prices could force energy-intensive industries to shutter operations and re-sell their power on spot markets. In France, several nuclear power plants have reduced output due to safety woes and a worker strike, straining the grid and sending power prices to decade highs. This year, energy prices have soared, with European natural gas prices surging more than 600%. The region's benchmark gas contract rose by 8.8% early Monday. With more nuclear power plant outages and unreliable green energy, electricity producers will use more gas to produce energy. However, supply constraints persist as the amount of gas entering Germany at the Mallnow compressor station collapsed over the weekend; storage tanks on the continent are only 60% filled, a record low for this time of year. While gas prices in Europe remain at record levels, there's been an entirely different situation in the US with warm weather and abundance of gas have depressed prices. Europe's energy crisis appears far from over as market tightness and colder weather will continue pushing up power prices that will strain households and businesses. * * * Bloomberg's Chief Energy Correspondent Javier Blas tweeted a disturbing map of European day-ahead electricity prices that will hit record highs on Monday. "EUROPEAN ENERGY CRISIS: Wow, wow, wow... I'm running out of words to describe the European short-term electricity market," Blas said. He continued, "Multiple records breached for Monday. With the exception of Poland and Scandinavia, all Europe is above €300 per MWh (France and Switzerland near €400)." The continuation of surging power prices, as Blas explained, is due to "Lots of nuclear reactors are down, demand is high (electricity used for heating), so it's burning gas to bridge the gap." Days ago, we told readers multiple nuclear power plants in France were taken offline due to routine safety inspections that found cracks at one power plant. European daily power demand continues to soar as colder-than-normal temperatures are present across the continent. Benchmark natural gas prices surged to a new high last week, up more than 650% on the year, on concerns of declining gas flows via the Yamal-Europe pipeline that runs across Belarus and Poland to Mallnow, Germany; low storage on the continent, and geopolitical risk. European natural gas prices hit a new record high. The amount of gas entering Germany at the Mallnow compressor station collapsed. The pipeline only booked for 4% of space for Dec. 20. The latest geopolitical flare-up occurred last week when Germany's federal network agency, Bundesnetzagentur, said Russia's Nord Stream 2 pipeline won't be cleared until July. On Sunday, Germany said they could entirely block the Nord Stream 2 if a possible conflict between Russia and Ukraine erupts. Europe's energy crisis worsens and risks sparking discontent among many Europeans. How long until politicians order utilities to implement price caps on power rates? If politicians want to stay in power, they might also have to subsidize people's power bills as energy inflation runs wild. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN December 21, 2021 https://oilprice.com/Energy/Gas-Prices/Gas-Markets-Could-See-Sudden-Bout-Of-Volatility.html Gas Markets Could See Sudden Bout Of Volatility By Michael Kern - Dec 20, 2021, 7:00 PM CST Join Our Community Weather forecasts are among the biggest factors driving natural gas prices, especially during the winter when heating demand is at its peak. At the same time, weather forecasts are notoriously unreliable beyond a certain point. As a result, natural gas prices have seen some sharp movements in the last few days and are likely to see extra volatility in the runup to the holidays. December has turned out warmer than expected, and that has dampened prices somewhat. But uncertainty about January remains as traders exit their positions and go home for the holidays. At the same time, a tight supply situation per the latest EIA gas inventory report is keeping the upside risk substantial, too, adding to volatility. An additional factor that is moving natural gas prices in the United States is the price—and supply—situation in Europe. Since September, the continent has been teetering on the brink of a gas shortage with prices breaking record after record, providing a major boost to U.S. gas exports and prompting Senator Elizabeth Warren to lash out at exporting companies accusing them of profiteering instead of keeping the gas for American consumers. There seems to be enough gas for the domestic market, however, so for the United States, the fundamentals situation is not as dramatic as it is for the EU, where reserves are already at the 5-percent mark when there are still two more months of winter. The outlook is bullish, too. The Energy Information Administration expects U.S. natural gas production to hit a new record next year. By December 2022, the EIA said, it expects dry natural gas production to increase to 97.5 billion cu ft daily. That would be up from 95.1 billion cu ft daily in October this year, the agency said. By the way, the October production figure is already a substantial increase on the low of 87.3 billion cu m from May 2020 when the pandemic began to claim oil and gas production amid demand destruction. The increase in production would come from pure-play gas drillers and from oil drillers as well, as they produce a lot of associated gas during oil extraction. As oil drilling increases, the EIA explained in the latest edition of its Short-Term Energy Outlook, so will gas production when the wells are put into operation. Related: Are Oil Markets Already Oversupplied? Even with this production increase, however, the United States is consuming more natural gas than it produces. According to data from Refinitiv cited by Reuters last week, demand for natural gas in the U.S., including exports, will reach 118.2 billion cu ft this week, up from 109.4 billion cu ft last week as the weather gets colder. At the same time, the report cited analysts who pointed to the currently milder than usual weather that would allow utilities to build their inventories and reach above-average levels in a week or two if the weather remains mild. This would be the first above-average storage level since April this year, Reuters noted. Inventory levels certainly have an effect on prices, and it is a quick effect, just like the one of weather forecasts. Still, U.S. natural gas prices remain radically lower than the average in both Europe and Asia: in Asia, the average price per million British thermal units is about $36, while in Europe, this figure rises to $41. In the United States, natural gas is trading at about $4 per mmBtu. It’s worth noting there that although this state of price affairs is certainly motivating for higher LNG exports, the potential worry that excessive exports could raise prices for American consumers considerably is unfounded, at least on fundamental grounds. The total U.S. LNG exports capacity stands at some 12 billion cu ft daily, and currently, exports are running at 11.8 billion cu ft daily. By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com More Top Reads From Oilprice.com: Oil Prices Crash On Renewed Omicron Panic What’s In Store For The Mining Industry In 2022? The Supreme Court Case That Could Transform Energy Markets Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN December 21, 2021 UK natural gas prices rallied to fresh all-time highs above 390 pence a therm in the third week of December, in line with the Dutch contract, amid reports that natural gas flows through the key Yamal-Europe pipeline reversed and began moving towards Russia at a time when a cold blast sent temperatures to freezing levels in Europe. Additional upside risks stemmed from delays in the approval of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which some analysts expect to be operational no sooner than September 2022, supply cut threats by the Belarusian President, and fears about harsher sanctions slapped on Russia’s energy sector amid heightened tensions in Ukraine. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas EU natural gas prices extended gains to new record highs above €152 per megawatt-hour on Tuesday, amid a reversal in flows in the key Yamal-Europe pipeline, which began moving natural gas eastwards, leaving Germany towards Russia at a time when several European capitals were being hit by a cold blast. Meanwhile, wind power production in Germany fell to a five-week low, which combined with outages in French nuclear plants, delays in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and geopolitical risks in Belarus and Ukraine, added to the risk factors contributing to one of the most severe natural gas crises in Europe’s history. With imports running low and depleting inventories, investors are now fearing that the ongoing natural gas crunch could be extended into next winter. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas US natural gas futures traded around $3.7 per million British thermal units in the third week of December, hovering close to five-month lows, as traders monitored weather forecasts against expectations that inventories will remain widely loose. Temperatures are expected to decline moderately in parts of the US around Christmas, with Refinitiv projecting US natural gas demand to reach 123.7 bcf this week, from 109.7 bcf last week, before easing back to 120.1 bcf next week. Nonetheless, most of the country is expected to see warmer-than-usual weather through late December, which should allow inventories to reach above-normal storage levels soon. Adding to downward pressure, the oil and gas rig count rose to 579 in the seven-days ending December 17th, the highest level since April 2020, signaling more future supplies. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN December 21, 2021 https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Europes-Gas-Prices-Jump-To-Record-As-Key-Pipeline-From-Russia-Halts-Flows.html Europe’s Gas Prices Jump To Record As Key Pipeline From Russia Halts Flows By Tsvetana Paraskova - Dec 21, 2021, 9:00 AM CST European gas prices jumped to an all-time high on Tuesday The Dutch TTF surged by 11 percent to a record 162.78 per MWh Flows of natural gas from Russia on the Yamal-Europe pipeline via Belarus to Poland and Germany have been falling since the start of the weekend Join Our Community European gas prices jumped to an all-time high on Tuesday after natural gas on a key pipeline from Russia to Germany reversed flow eastward and freezing temperatures took hold in many parts of Europe. The benchmark price for Europe at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) surged by 11 percent early on Tuesday to a record 162.78 euros per megawatt-hour. According to data from German operator Gascade, cited by Reuters, flows of natural gas from Russia on the Yamal-Europe pipeline via Belarus to Poland and Germany have been falling since the start of the weekend, stopped completely on Tuesday, and then reversed direction from Germany east to Poland. Gas prices in the UK also surged to a new all-time high after hitting the previous record just a few days ago last week. UK gas prices soared to an all-time high of 350 pence per therm last Thursday, which was a massive 520 percent jump year to date. Today, the UK benchmark price hit 400p per therm—a new record. Freezing temperatures across Europe, low Russian gas supply, and low wind power generation in Germany have all combined to send European and UK gas prices to new records today. Related: Oil Prices Crash On Renewed Omicron Panic “EU gas and power open higher again today with gas flows from Russia on the Yamal-Europe pipeline dropping to near zero. Just as German wind output falls to a five-week low and freezing temperatures spread across Europe,” Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, noted. At the start of this week, natural gas exports from Russia via the Yamal-Europe pipeline remain limited as true winter begins, Russia keeps more gas for domestic consumption, and Gazprom has not booked too much additional day-ahead capacity at auctions. Traders are watching closely every tender in which Gazprom is set to book pipeline capacity via the main pipeline routes to Germany and Poland. Every time Russia doesn’t book too much additional capacity, Europe’s benchmark gas prices jump. Some analysts and EU officials have said that Russia is deliberately keeping extra gas supply – the one on top of its contractual obligations – low amid the row over Ukraine and the delays in the certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Russia denies there is a connection between its limited extra gas supply to Europe and the current events with Ukraine and Nord Stream 2. “This is a purely commercial situation. You have to ask Gazprom about the details,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday, commenting on the halted gas flows to Germany via the Yamal-Europe pipeline. By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com More Top Reads From Oilprice.com: Cities Around The World Are Trying To Cut Out Natural Gas Tight U.S. Oil Inventories Prop Up Oil Prices Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
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