Oil Decline Theory and Peak Oil

[ronwagn + 6,290]

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1GSbXheVVG2a5K6no8KtdPwmvYHU37HTdBlo0F-6lFmM/edit

[Meredith Poor + 883]

Tells me I need to request access.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

2 hours ago, Meredith Poor said:

Tells me I need to request access.

Sorry! I corrected that. It is open to all. 

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,177]

If link has google in it, must mean it's an accurate story?? Sorry Ron, I don't buy what they are selling. True the easiest oil to extract is getting more difficult to acquire but look across the Gulf and you will see next Generation platforms. Hell, for that fact if Maduro played right the amount of oil alone in Venezuela last i looked is still No.1 in recoverable.....   More than half the world hasn't been examined for Petro liquids and gases. I am gonna call the article B.S, just my opinion. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 12/16/2021 at 6:18 PM, Old-Ruffneck said:

If link has google in it, must mean it's an accurate story?? Sorry Ron, I don't buy what they are selling. True the easiest oil to extract is getting more difficult to acquire but look across the Gulf and you will see next Generation platforms. Hell, for that fact if Maduro played right the amount of oil alone in Venezuela last i looked is still No.1 in recoverable.....   More than half the world hasn't been examined for Petro liquids and gases. I am gonna call the article B.S, just my opinion. 

I tend to agree, but there is the issue of American oil finds which may be mainly offshore eventually, and the Pacific and Atlantic coasts are not open, nor is The Alaskan Park area that hardly anyone visits anyway. 

[Meredith Poor + 883]

https://www.fz-juelich.de/SharedDocs/Pressemitteilungen/UK/EN/2021/2021-12-17-perowskit-pz.html

Quote

In the current issue of the renowned journal Nature Energy, researchers from the Helmholtz Institute Erlangen-Nuremberg of the Forschungszentrum Jülich have presented a variant that stands out for its special stability. In tests at elevated temperature and illumination over 1450 hours of operation, the perovskite-based cell retained 99 percent of its initial efficiency.

Current silicon based PVs are running about 20 cents per watt from Chinese vendors. Prices in the US tend to run from 35 cents to 50 cents per watt.

If perovskites drop the price by 90%, solar in the US would cost around 5 cents per watt. These would likely take the form of solar panels that just fit on a 53' tractor trailer (53' x 8.5'). At 20% efficiency, one of these would produce about 8Kw, or 40Kwh per day. 8000 x .05 = $400 per panel at the factory gate.

If 20 cent per watt solar panels produce power at a price of 2 cents per Kwh ($20 per Mwh), then the perovskites would produce power at .2 cents per Kwh (presuming they last 25 years). If they only last 10 years, this cost might rise to .5 cents per Kwh.

At that price, carbon capture, water hydrolysis, and fuel synthesis would most likely be competitive with mineral extraction. At that point any discussion of 'peak oil' becomes meaningless, since hydrocarbon supply becomes essentially unlimited, and carbon neutral.

 

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Rystad Energy analysts say the number of oil and gas fields discovered in the world in 2021 may be the lowest in 75 years.
"The discovery of oil and gas deposits in the world in 2021 may be the lowest in 75 years, if no significant discoveries are made by the end of December," analysts write.
As of the end of November, the volume of discovered deposits was 4.7 billion barrels of oil equivalent, and if large deposits are not discovered by the end of the year, this may prove to be the worst value since 1946. It is noted that this number will be 12.5 billion barrels lower than in 2020.
Liquid hydrocarbons are still dominant, accounting for 66% of the discoveries, while seven large fields were discovered in November with a volume of about 219 million barrels of oil equivalent, the report said. This year, an average of 424 million barrels of deposit was discovered per month.
According to analysts, the largest in November this year. there was an oil field discovered by Lukoil on the Mexican shelf. In addition, Norway still maintains infrastructure for the development of small deposits.
"Despite the fact that there are promising projects planned by the end of the year, even a significant opening will not be able to translate into the volumes from 2021, because they cannot be completed by the end of the calendar year" - the experts emphasize.