Europe gas market -how it started how its going

[Tomasz + 1,608]

A long time ago in Europe it started like this:
- We do not want NG and coald because this are fuels of the past, everyone will be using REVENABLES in a moment.
- Do not sign long-term NG contracts with Russia because you support the Russian regime.
- Turn off coal and nuclear power plants.
- REVENABLES is great idea and the rest of the electricity will be temporarily produced with NG
- everyone needs to have EV and heat pumps.
-world is awash of LNG and you can buy it very cheaply from the USA and Qatar
- Spot TTF prices and Free Market is the right solution for the future .
-Western companies should limit investment in something that can be banned at any time in the EU.

So now we are in 2020:
We will not open NS2 because it supports the invasion and will not allow Ukraine to earn 3 bilion
-we have covid price drop so Gazprom and Saudi Arabia or OPEC will fall hehe :-)
- we are even more sure that now noone should not invest in mining because prices are scrubbing at the bottom (LOWER FOR LONGER etc)

So we are now in 2021 environment - how its currrently going
So Russia response:
-we will ship gas in accordance strictly with signed long term contracts.
- we will not sell additional volumes on the spot because we will earn much better on the increase in contract prices.
-we keep little gas in our inventories in Europe.

World (especially Asia):
We need more LNG because it was cold winter and hot summer, and we are switching to REVENABLES, like the EU.
-

USA and Qatar:  we see better prices in Asia and Latn America so we send our LNG there because they pay better than in Europe.

-Iran, the world's third largest NG producer, US and EU export bans so sorry no NG for Europe

EU reaction:
-Its Russia who manipulates prices because it does not send it in full volumes and cheaply and of ourse above the long term contract  as we now in 2021 want.
-Russia is obliged to send us full volume of cheap gas immediately  at our own request until we develop renewable energy, all through Ukraine so that it would arm itself against Russia for the transit money.
- the European market should be a priority, increasing exports outside the EU market is manipulating the supply.

Russia:
¯ \ _ (ツ) _ / ¯
- we deliver according to contracts.
-We have just finished shipping gas in accordance with the Ukrainian contract on December 1 and we do not have to send anything via Ukraine until January 1.
- we  are building infrastructure for LNG export to become independent from the EU.
-talks about building Power of Siberia 2 from Yamal to China.
- enters the Indian market with LNG.

EU plan:
- more REVENABLES XD.
- prohibition of signing long-term  contracts after 2050.
-We will negotiate as a group, but only those who want to be in this group.

If anyone thinks that problems with gas prices are a one-time event, they will be surprised.  The EU is about to have to compete with the whole world for the same gas.
It was rather cheap already.

[Eric Gagen + 713]

Or in short:

For decades, Western Europe benefitted from the fact that Russia had no serious alternative markets for its excess natural gas production.  Now, thanks to a variety of factors, the Russians have some choices in their sales alternatives, and the Europeans are no longer receiving cut rate natural gas - they have to pay the market price, which is set by LNG demand in Asia .

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

2 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

Or in short:

For decades, Western Europe benefited from the fact that Russia had no serious alternative markets for its excess natural gas production.  Now, thanks to a variety of factors, the Russians have some choices in their sales alternatives, and the Europeans are no longer receiving cut rate natural gas - they have to pay the market price, which is set by LNG demand in Asia .

That would be the rational expectation. However, what EU is doing now does not appear to be rational anymore.

[Starschy + 211]

2 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

Or in short:

For decades, Western Europe benefitted from the fact that Russia had no serious alternative markets for its excess natural gas production.  Now, thanks to a variety of factors, the Russians have some choices in their sales alternatives, and the Europeans are no longer receiving cut rate natural gas - they have to pay the market price, which is set by LNG demand in Asia .

In general all Commodity from Russia will be much  more competitive.

Gas is one thing. Titan is another one, 50% for Boeing and Airbus without Western Airlines would have big issues. The Russian and Chinese Airline producers will compete.

There is a long list of metals available by Nornickel which not automatically go to the West in the future. (next 10 years)

Edited December 29, 2021 by Starschy

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,537]

39 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

That would be the rational expectation. However, what EU is doing now does not appear to be rational anymore.

Rational? Well dumping hundreds of billions into green energy solutions and not even being able to heat their homes?

I am quite sure Putin is smiling somewhere thinking life does not get any better.

Shooting fish in a barrel does come to mind. 

Yet they do have a plethora of shiny new EV'S...

 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

14 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Rational? Well dumping hundreds of billions into green energy solutions and not even being able to heat their homes?

I am quite sure Putin is smiling somewhere thinking life does not get any better.

Shooting fish in a barrel does come to mind. 

Yet they do have a plethora of shiny new EV'S...

 

Did you see the episode of Mythbusters where they totally fail at actually shooting fish in a barrel? Even with a Gatling gun.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,537]

1 hour ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Did you see the episode of Mythbusters where they totally fail at actually shooting fish in a barrel? Even with a Gatling gun.

Not to left out of the party..

 

Edited December 30, 2021 by Eyes Wide Open

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

18 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Not to left out of the party..

 

Here, I found it for you https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x80do2m

grand finale https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BOz1vinNXZg

Those guys seemingly completely forgot about refraction - the fish is not where it appears to be from above the surface. Not impressed by their Pathfinder skills at all.

Edited December 30, 2021 by Andrei Moutchkine

[NickW + 2,714]

The biggest error Europe made was its 30 year hiatus in nuclear new build. 

In the case of the UK we should have been commissioning another PWR every 2-3 years. Last biuld and commissioned was Sizewell B in 1995. 

Germany shuts down half its remaining fleet tomorrow🤡

[NickW + 2,714]

On 12/29/2021 at 9:04 PM, Eric Gagen said:

Or in short:

For decades, Western Europe benefitted from the fact that Russia had no serious alternative markets for its excess natural gas production.  Now, thanks to a variety of factors, the Russians have some choices in their sales alternatives, and the Europeans are no longer receiving cut rate natural gas - they have to pay the market price, which is set by LNG demand in Asia .

The irony being this has made wind and solar (by cost per kwh) super competitive even for offshore wind*

The strike price on European offshore wind (either Belg or the Netherlands) was 6.7c /  Kwh

Gas was trading on the dutch hub at 9.5c/kwh today. 

 

[NickW + 2,714]

23 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Rational? Well dumping hundreds of billions into green energy solutions and not even being able to heat their homes?

I am quite sure Putin is smiling somewhere thinking life does not get any better.

Shooting fish in a barrel does come to mind. 

Yet they do have a plethora of shiny new EV'S...

 

Money well spent

Strike prices for offshore wind down to 67 Euros / Mwh

Gas price today on Dutch hub 95 Euro / Mwh

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,537]

32 minutes ago, NickW said:

Gas price today on Dutch hub 95 Euro / 

Due to 30 gas tankers dropping all at once? Unscheduled.

 

Big Winners From Natural-Gas Crunch: Coal Power Plants in Europe

Profit margins are far and away the highest they have been in years. Under Europe’s climate policies, this shouldn’t be happening.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/big-winners-from-natural-gas-crunch-coal-power-plants-in-europe-11637150981

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 31, 2021 by Eyes Wide Open

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

1 hour ago, NickW said:

The biggest error Europe made was its 30 year hiatus in nuclear new build. 

In the case of the UK we should have been commissioning another PWR every 2-3 years. Last biuld and commissioned was Sizewell B in 1995. 

Germany shuts down half its remaining fleet tomorrow🤡

My Russian sources say you might commission something now, because you kicked out the French and hired the Chinese.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

1 hour ago, NickW said:

Money well spent

Strike prices for offshore wind down to 67 Euros / Mwh

Gas price today on Dutch hub 95 Euro / Mwh

The spot price on gas is artificially inflated. You can pay as little as 1/10th of that if you enter a long-term supply contract with Gazprom.

[nsdp + 449]

1 hour ago, NickW said:

Money well spent

Strike prices for offshore wind down to 67 Euros / Mwh

Gas price today on Dutch hub 95 Euro / Mwh

Sounds like chump change compared to Texas prices in Feb.  We had $9000/mwh for 5 days straight because NG field production, gathering, and pipeline compression; coal piles that were frozen shutting down 1/2 of coal generation, and frozen valves on Nukes that wiped out 25% of nukes that took 2 weeks to restart.   Let' see how bad it gets if the Texas PUCT and ERCOT run things.  42,000 mw shut down, wind was 3% or 1250 mw at  wind speed of 6 m/s.

Since Christmas the US has loaded 20 LNG tankers on their way to Rotterdam.  "Over the past weekend, the number of tankers transporting liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States to European countries increased by a third – from 15 to 20 ships. This was reported yesterday by the agency Bloomberg....At the same time, another 14 vessels “followed in the same direction”, but were still awaiting “final orders”.https://www.perild.com/2021/12/28/us-sends-20-gas-tankers-to-europe-bloomberg/

Edited December 31, 2021 by nsdp
spelling

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

1 hour ago, NickW said:

The irony being this has made wind and solar (by cost per kwh) super competitive even for offshore wind*

The strike price on European offshore wind (either Belg or the Netherlands) was 6.7c /  Kwh

Gas was trading on the dutch hub at 9.5c/kwh today. 

 

The requirement for heat tends to be much higher than for electricity.

You also need gas as a chemical feedstock, for example for all the nitro fertilizers.

[nsdp + 449]

1 minute ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

The requirement for heat tends to be much higher than for electricity.

You also need gas as a chemical feedstock, for example for all the nitro fertilizers.

If nitrogen fertilizer were priced so farmers don't waste it feeding algae blooms at river,mouths,   demand  for Nitrogen would be seasonal.  Spring time. How many 1000 hours do you have at the wheel of tractor?  I lost count after 12 summers.  As for

Gas furnace heating, if it is not old and  about to rust out, beats electricity by 5% assuming CCGT generators.  As for hydrogen chlor-akali electrolizers are 65% and you get chlorine NaOH for free.  How much time do you have toward  your plant operator certification? 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

2 minutes ago, nsdp said:

If nitrogen fertilizer were priced so farmers don't waste it feeding algae blooms at river,mouths,   demand  for Nitrogen would be seasonal.  Spring time. How many 1000 hours do you have at the wheel of tractor?  I lost count after 12 summers.  As for

Gas furnace heating, if it is not old and  about to rust out, beats electricity by 5% assuming CCGT generators.  As for hydrogen chlor-akali electrolizers are 65% and you get chlorine NaOH for free.  How much time do you have toward  your plant operator certification? 

None. Nobody would entrust me with a tractor. Can I ride yours?

I understand enough physics to know that electricity cannot be cheaper than gas it is made out of. I've seen enough cases where it is so, but Russian laws of preservation allow for free energy. With a caveat, that every time there is free energy, there is free government money nearby

[nsdp + 449]

14 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

None. Nobody would entrust me with a tractor. Can I ride yours?

I understand enough physics to know that electricity cannot be cheaper than gas it is made out of. I've seen enough cases where it is so, but Russian laws of preservation allow for free energy. With a caveat, that every time there is free energy, there is free government money nearby

I drove  starting at 7 years old and drove (10 hours daily 1/2 day on Sunday) every summer until I graduated from high school.  every day practice in the 1950's. Here is what I started on. 1952 model.   Power steering by ArmStrong. Wish my brother still had it it on the farm.would be worth as much or more than 1964 1/2-66 mustang rag top.   https://tractors.fandom.com/wiki/McCormick-Deering_WD-9

Edited December 31, 2021 by nsdp
forgot link

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

11 minutes ago, nsdp said:

I drove  starting at 7 years old and drove (10 hours daily 1/2 day on Sunday) every summer until I graduated from high school.  every day practice in the 1950's. Here is what I started on. 1952 model.   Power steering by ArmStrong. Wish my brother still had it it on the farm.would be worth as much or more than 1964 1/2-66 mustang rag top.   https://tractors.fandom.com/wiki/McCormick-Deering_WD-9

Exploitation of child labor, eh?

[nsdp + 449]

2 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Due to 30 gas tankers dropping all at once? Unscheduled.

 

Big Winners From Natural-Gas Crunch: Coal Power Plants in Europe

Profit margins are far and away the highest they have been in years. Under Europe’s climate policies, this shouldn’t be happening.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/big-winners-from-natural-gas-crunch-coal-power-plants-in-europe-11637150981

 

 

 

 

 

The Texas February freeze should not  have happened and would not if politicians and MBA's had not put their great ideas to work and screwed up scheduled maintenance.  You are looking in the wrong place for crooks and criminals. Think Enron and the 2002 electricity disaster.  Europe has good dispatchers and plant operators; let them run the system.   Lock up your crooks and thieves.  Putin would be crying in his beer.

[nsdp + 449]

1 minute ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Exploitation of child labor, eh?

Farm kids were exempt. Done in the US since the 1620's (before slaves)Every one worked to put food on the table.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,537]

7 minutes ago, nsdp said:

The Texas February freeze should not  have happened and would not if politicians and MBA's had not put their great ideas to work and screwed up scheduled maintenance.  You are looking in the wrong place for crooks and criminals. Think Enron and the 2002 electricity disaster.  Europe has good dispatchers and plant operators; let them run the system.   Lock up your crooks and thieves.  Putin would be crying in his beer.

Time to update.

Europe's missteps stoke gas price, says Russia, as fuel flows east

Europe's benchmark gas price climbed to a new record on Tuesday, up almost 800% since the start of the year. The price eased on Friday but it was still up more than 400%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/24/europes-missteps-stoke-gas-price-says-russia-as-fuel-flows-east.html

Meanwhile they sure have some nice new Jalopies!

Europe: Plug-In Car Sales Up 42% In September 2021

The market share expanded to 23%, including 15% for all-electric cars.

https://insideevs.com/news/544047/europe-plugin-car-sales-september2021/

 

 

Edited December 31, 2021 by Eyes Wide Open

[nsdp + 449]

1 minute ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Time to update.

Europe's missteps stoke gas price, says Russia, as fuel flows east

Europe's benchmark gas price climbed to a new record on Tuesday, up almost 800% since the start of the year. The price eased on Friday but it was still up more than 400%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/24/europes-missteps-stoke-gas-price-says-russia-as-fuel-flows-east.html

So? look at Henry and Waha prices between Feb. 1-18.  you are only 40% of the way there. That was 1800% not a measly 800%.

[nsdp + 449]

16 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Exploitation of child labor, eh?

Beat being in the dairy barn and milking cows.  Getting S*** all over you.