Tomasz

Europe gas market -how it started how its going

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Tomasz: As a result, in the fourth quarter of 2021, natural gas exports accounted for 14% of Russia's export earnings ($148.7 billion). According to the results of all 2021, the price of exported gas increased by 2.1 times compared to 2020 ($54.2 billion against $25.7). Aggregate exports grew by 47% ($489.8 billion against $333.4 billion), exports of crude oil - by 52%, oil products - by 51%.

It seems that even if Russia gives up its entire NG export, it still has trade surplus, and if it gives up NG export only to countries that would join putative "super sanctions" that USA is developing for the eventuality of a was termed "invasion on Ukraine", Russia would still have current account surplus.  Adding sanctions on the trade in Russian bonds is hilarious in this context.

In the meantime, Western societies seem to have low tolerance for inflation driven by world commodities.  Because I know only few languages, I can only witness the loss of popularity of governments in USA and UK, and the strange maneuvers aim to preserve the popularity of the current government.  The latest styles itself as the "United Right Wing" and "Defender of poor people", so it devised a plan to fight inflation with "inflation shield", basically reduction of sales taxes, while simultaneously raising taxes to preserve programs to "defend poor people".  So far, the crash in popularity seems delayed with those maneuvers, but it is hard to tell (like in Turkey, polling companies are divided into those that consistently predict a loss of the government in the next elections, and those that consistently predict a victory.

UK enjoys the highest electricity prices in Europe, which may divert attention of the population from hilarious revelries in the office of Prime Minister.  Because PM is resourceful, especially in PR terms, I suspect that he will regain the popularity with.a show of shared sacrifice, from now on, his staff will buy cheep booze only, and refrain from overconsumption when Her Majesty happens to be sad (e.g. funeral of her husband, humiliating conviction of her son, death of favorite dogs etc.).  And they will never damage garden furniture again.

USA is NG exporter, but the improvements in export have few winners, and a lot of people who pay more to heat their dwellings, and to drive, and electricity increases too, and the chain reaction drives inflation and makes folks grumpy, and another spectacular failure abroad can kill all hopes of the current government to be reelected.  In a current exchange of threats (a.k.a. dialog) between USA and Russia, USA can "inflict a price" and Russia can inflict a serious humiliation.  Inflicting a price never won an election.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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In long time, the situation will calm down and prices will drop significantly.

The difference will be in the interpretation of new price environment.

Before 2019 $ 500 per 1,000 m3 was an unacceptable price for natural gas in Europe.

In the era of the green madness of the next decade, European countries will be satisfied by paying only $ 500 for 1,000 m3.

Gazprom will open 100% of both pipelines to China and will send 88 billion with two pipes and a further tens of billion as LNG via Novatek.

Gas for Europe will be only not for everyone interested.

Gazprom due to limited spare capacity IMHO will resign from some contracts - it will forgive new contracts with Poland, the Baltic states and Ukraine.

The profit from these contracts was small, and the constant screams from this countries were terrible.

It will simply not conclude new contracts and let these countries buy themselves on the free global market for natural gas

After all, they do not have to buy from Gazprom and Gazprom is not obliged to sell them.

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Do you even believe that drivel you post?  Give you a BIG hint, USA exports more gas than it imports and has done so for going on 5 years now and before that the imports of gas were less than 10% for a whopping 10 years and another 10 years of 5% of demand all of which came from Canada as it was closer to the demand point not because the USA did not have the NG... 

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