Putin Wants Farmland in the East, Let Ports and sole control of Azov Sea. . . . . Biden "minor incursion alright"

[bobo88 + 58]

UPDATE FEB 14TH -  Putin Game Plan ?

 

Simple: Putin just takes oblast directly on the border from Luhansk to Kherson . . . . 

1. They then own the Azov Sea 

2. They control the Port of Mariupol (BIG )

3. They control City of Kherson in oblast Kherson on the Dnieper River. A choke point.  

They control the 70% of Ukraine economy by controlling ports.  

4. Russia has control of any new natural gas or oil resources in Azov Sea or off coast of the Southern oblasts.

Could go for Odessa, but would be costly.

End Result : Russia controls Ukraine. Eventually , gets a Russian friendly govt and Ukraine is in Russian sphere of influence and talk of joining NATO is dead.

Of courß all those corporations that wanted to do business in Ukraine, oil companies and defense contractors that contributed to the Biden campaign lose.  Not the U.S. problem. 

Ukraine can put all their troops a defense on the Eastern front then Russia will walk into Ukraine from Belarus, Russia Kursk oblast and Odessa.

Separatist in Donetsk start to increase fight. Russia feels it "has to" help. Ukraine responses and finds itself in a three front war.

It is really quite simple.

 

 

 

Ukraine produced nearly 30% of the former Soviet Union's agriculture.  Putin wants it back.  China wants to buy the wheat, corn and barley from Putin. Eastern Ukraine is where  all the productive farmland is located ! 

(Plus Russia would control all the territory surrounding Azov Sea. No direct sea access for Ukraine)

Go long wheat futures.

Unfortunately Biden let it slip out that a minor incursion was acceptable. The knucklehead screwed the plan up again. Can't tell him anything. 

Now Biden has to act like he cares.

First, Putin's tanks cross the Ukraine eastern farmland uninhibited. Minimal casualties.

Biden threatens Putin (pre-planned) and negotiates end of attack. Putin takes 4 , maybe 5 oblasts right along Ukraine Eastern and Southeastern border.

Putin doesn't want Kiev.  He would like all of Ukraine but really wants eastern farmland now along with access control to Azov Sea .

This a very manageable plan for minimal effort.

 

The NY Times headline will declare Biden averted WW III and then he receives the Nobel Peace Prize. Biden will boast of uniting U.S and Europe after Bad Trump destroyed the relationship. Hunter and Jim Biden get lucrative German consulting contracts.

Now Putin will control both Europe's Breadbasket and Energy.

What else does Russia have to sell ?  There is just Oil/Gas , Wheat/Corn and Vodka.  Oh , also military equipment/missile defense systems. 

All these recent machinations are just the usual Kabuki dance. 

Remember Biden said a minor incursion is acceptable.  Putin will determine what is "minor" , not Biden.

Biden didn't make this up.  He was told this.  This must have been a compromise between U.S. (Antony Blinken) and Germany. 

Biden said, “It’s one thing if it’s a minor incursion, and then we end up having a fight about what to do and not do, et cetera"

Biden put the administration in an awkward position. 

Edited February 14, 2022 by bobo88

[bobo88 + 58]

On 2/6/2022 at 8:35 PM, bobo88 said:

Ukraine produced nearly 30% of the former Soviet Union's agriculture.  Putin wants it back.  China wants to buy it from Putin. Eastern Ukraine is where  all the productive farmland is located ! 

Go long wheat futures. It's not too late.

Unfortunately Biden let it slip out that a small incursion was acceptable. The knucklehead screwed the plan up again. Can't tell him anything. 

Now Biden has to act like he cares.

First, Putin's tanks cross the Ukraine eastern farmland uninhibited. Minimal casualties.

When Putin's tanks reach Kyev Biden threatens Putin (pre-planned) and negotiates end of attack. 

Putin doesn't want Kyev.  He would like all of Ukraine but really wants eastern farmland now.

The NY Times headline will declare Biden averted WW III and then he receives the Nobel Peace Prize. Biden boasts of uniting U.S and Europe after Bad Trump destroyed the relationship. Hunter and Jim Biden get lucrative German consulting contracts.

Putin controls Europe's breadbasket , plus it's energy.  

What else does Russia have to sell ?  There is just Oil/Gas , Wheat/Corn and Vodka.  Oh , also military equipment/missile defense systems. 

All these recent machinations are just the usual Kabuki dance. 

Let's get to what's important now . . . . Who do you like in next week's Superbowl ?

 

This "conflict" will be over before it even starts. Eastern and maybe some part of Southern Ukraine will be a cake walk. 

Putin wins.

Ukraine loses (eastern provences along their eastern border, agriculture land and access to the Azov Sea. 

Likely only 4 or 5 provences.

Edited February 10, 2022 by bobo88

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

1 hour ago, bobo88 said:

Ukraine produced nearly 30% of the former Soviet Union's agriculture.  Putin wants it back.  China wants to buy it from Putin. Eastern Ukraine is where  all the productive farmland is located ! 

Go long wheat futures. It's not too late.

Unfortunately Biden let it slip out that a small incursion was acceptable. The knucklehead screwed the plan up again. Can't tell him anything. 

Now Biden has to act like he cares.

First, Putin's tanks cross the Ukraine eastern farmland uninhibited. Minimal casualties.

When Putin's tanks reach Kyev then Biden threatens Putin (pre-planned) and negotiates end of attack. 

Putin doesn't want Kyev.  He would like all of Ukraine but really wants eastern farmland now.

The NY Times headline will declare Biden averted WW III and then he receives the Nobel Peace Prize. Biden will boast of uniting U.S and Europe after Bad Trump destroyed the relationship. Hunter and Jim Biden get lucrative German consulting contracts.

Now Putin will control both Europe's Breadbasket and Energy.

What else does Russia have to sell ?  There is just Oil/Gas , Wheat/Corn and Vodka.  Oh , also military equipment/missile defense systems. 

All these recent machinations are just the usual Kabuki dance. 

Let's get to what's important now . . . . Who do you like in next week's Superbowl ?

 

Russia is already the world's largest producer of wheat and growing every year, with no help from Ukraine,

[bobo88 + 58]

18 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Russia is already the world's largest producer of wheat and growing every year, with no help from Ukraine,

 

Yea right . 

Why would Putin want to increase the Russian wheat , barley and corn production by 30% ? 

Why would Putin want to increase sale of wheat , barley and corn to China by 30% ?

Why would Putin like to have control of "Europe's Breadbasket" in addition to their Energy Supply ?

 

I'm sorry.  So silly of me.

 

Edited February 7, 2022 by bobo88

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

Just now, bobo88 said:

Yea right .  Why would Putin want to increase their wheat and corn production by 30% ? 

Why would Putin want to increase sale of wheat to China by 30% ?

Why would Putin like to have control of "Europe's Breadbasket" in addition to Europe's Energy supply.

 

I'm sorry.  So silly of me.

 

 

 

You don't get it. The "breadbasket of Europe" is now Russia, not Ukraine. Except that the EU ain't buying, they got plenty of their own. So, make it the world. Russia supplies about a quarter of global grain exports

https://rujec.org/article/50308/

In terms of money, it's a pittance. Agriculture is just 3.7% of GDP, apparently

https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Russia/share_of_agriculture/

It keeps growing on its own

https://www.agroberichtenbuitenland.nl/actueel/nieuws/2021/10/22/export-of-agricultural-products-has-increased

The reasons for this should be obvious. Not only affordable labor, but also fertilizers and fuel.

If Russia were to annex Ukraine, it would have to subsidize them to get them on par. Why don't the sponsors of Maidan do that, instead? The place is broken.

[bobo88 + 58]

On 2/6/2022 at 10:39 PM, Andrei Moutchkine said:

You don't get it. The "breadbasket of Europe" is now Russia, not Ukraine. Except that the EU ain't buying, they got plenty of their own. So, make it the world. Russia supplies about a quarter of global grain exports

https://rujec.org/article/50308/

In terms of money, it's a pittance. Agriculture is just 3.7% of GDP, apparently

https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Russia/share_of_agriculture/

It keeps growing on its own

https://www.agroberichtenbuitenland.nl/actueel/nieuws/2021/10/22/export-of-agricultural-products-has-increased

The reasons for this should be obvious. Not only affordable labor, but also fertilizers and fuel.

If Russia were to annex Ukraine, it would have to subsidize them to get them on par. Why don't the sponsors of Maidan do that, instead? The place is broken.

Listen they are not going to annex ALL of Ukraine ..  ..  .. just the low populated farmland in the east and coastal Azov Sea. (Maybe some Black Sea territory in the south.)

No total Ukraine.

No Keiv Capital.

Just farmland and surrounding Azov Sea and maybe some of Ukraine's Black Sea.

Russia will control all the prime farmland and all the territory from Dombas province in Northeast Ukraine down to Crimea along the coast of the Black Sea.  They will claim and control access to the Azov Sea as Russian territory. 

Eastern Ukraine has large population of Russian sympathisers.  They are getting the welcome reception ready. 

Russia to increase grain sales to China.  Read the whole article.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/big-win-for-russian-wheat-as-china-further-opens-its-market 

Edited February 8, 2022 by bobo88

[bobo88 + 58]

Taking Eastern Ukraine will be easy.  It will take days not months.

* Cultural differences between Eastern/Southern Ukraine and Western Ukraine 

* East has large percentage of population that sympathize with Russia.

* Majority of Eastern Ukraine speak Russian (approx 30% population) with Western Ukraine speaks Ukraine Language a mixture of Slavic languages. (approx 70% of the population)

* A large percentage of Eastern and Southern Ukraine vote with the Ukraine Communist Party and support their pro Russia platform.

* Additionally, Ukraine has enacted a new law that states all Ukraine media will be presented in the Ukraine Language beginning in May.  Putin will have control of the east well before that.

The east (and most of the south if Putin goes for it) will show little resistance and many will actually welcome the Russians.

 

Edited February 7, 2022 by bobo88

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

3 minutes ago, bobo88 said:

Listen they are not going to annex ALL of Ukraine ..  ..  .. just the low populated farmland in the east.

From the looks of it you live on this chat board .  You need to get out more. The fresh air will do you good Mr. Iamalwaysright.

Russia to increase grain sales to China.  

https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/big-win-for-russian-wheat-as-china-further-opens-its-market 

Ukraine's population density appears to be pretty uniform(This actually is a surprise to me) I expected the population density to be higher in the East, where not only farmland, but all the Ukrainian heavy industries used to be. You can see a bit of that in a highly urbanized cluster between Dnipro(petrovsk) and Donetsk)

Anyhow, this would've been a much more useful addition than farmland, but way back in 2014. Now, the Ukrainian strategic industries are no more, and Russia had to live for a few years without any helicopter and ship's turbines, for example. All has been replaced by domestic production by now, though.

Your own article tells you how it works. The Chinese simply removed phytosanitary and regional restrictions on Russian grain. Which Russia already had.

 

[bobo88 + 58]

On 2/6/2022 at 10:39 PM, Andrei Moutchkine said:

You don't get it. The "breadbasket of Europe" is now Russia, not Ukraine. Except that the EU ain't buying, they got plenty of their own. So, make it the world. Russia supplies about a quarter of global grain exports

https://rujec.org/article/50308/

In terms of money, it's a pittance. Agriculture is just 3.7% of GDP, apparently

https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Russia/share_of_agriculture/

It keeps growing on its own

https://www.agroberichtenbuitenland.nl/actueel/nieuws/2021/10/22/export-of-agricultural-products-has-increased

The reasons for this should be obvious. Not only affordable labor, but also fertilizers and fuel.

If Russia were to annex Ukraine, it would have to subsidize them to get them on par. Why don't the sponsors of Maidan do that, instead? The place is broken.

Understand of the almost 1.4 billion Chinese population only about 300 million are living as middle class or higher. ( "only about 300 million". Sounds funny) 

That leaves over a billion Chinese peasants living on next to nothing.  That's going to be a whole lot of grain needed for for bread and pig/chicken feed.  

Then add Africa to that demand. 

Note: Ukraine's biggest markets for grain are China and Middle East.  Directly competes with Russia. 

It's common sense.  ?

Russia can send volume grain shipments to China by train in 5-6 days.  How long to ship  U.S. , Canadian or Argentina grains to China (especially the interior) .  The cost is not even close.

Same as Natural Gas/ Oil or gas pipeline from Russia to Europe/China vs tanker ship LNG /Oil to Europe from U.S 0r oil/gas to China .

The cost is not close.

* trains beat cargo ships 

* Pipelines beat tanker ships

 

It might become cheaper to train grain to all Asia / Pacific by train thru China to short range ships.

PUTIN WILL HAVE DEMAND FOR ALL RUSSIAN GRAIN AND ENERGY TO CHINA FOR IT'S 1.4 BILLION POPULATION (GROWING TO 2 BILLION).  THE TIME TO TAKE EASTERN UKRAINE FARMLAND IS NOW BEFORE WEAK JOE HAS TO RESIGN FOR MEDICAL REASONS.

(Who knows what dirt Putin has on the Biden Family)

Plus Russia wants to take care of now so as not to disrupt the Spring planting season on their new agriculture land.  Tanks are hard on this fields. 

 

Edited February 8, 2022 by bobo88

[bobo88 + 58]

Must Read: Article Written in 2014 , "Why Putin wants Crimea ?"

If you didn't know better you would have thought it was written last month andcould be titled "Why Putin Still Wants Eastern Ukraine"

THE MAP OF COASTAL UKRAINE SAYS IT ALL.

https://euobserver.com/opinion/123496   

 

 

 

Edited February 8, 2022 by bobo88

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,539]

52 minutes ago, bobo88 said:

Understand of the almost 1.4 billion Chinese population only about 300 million are living middle or higher.

That leaves over a billion Chinese are peasants living on next to nothing.  That's going to be a whole lot of grain needed for for bread and pig/chicken feed.  

Then add Africa to that demand. 

Ukraine's biggest markets for grain are China and Middle East.  Competes with Russia. 

It's common sense.  ?

 

Bingo! We have a winner.

[Starschy + 211]

18 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Ukraine's population density appears to be pretty uniform(This actually is a surprise to me) I expected the population density to be higher in the East, where not only farmland, but all the Ukrainian heavy industries used to be. You can see a bit of that in a highly urbanized cluster between Dnipro(petrovsk) and Donetsk.

 

I don‘t trust those Ukraine numbers. When we go back to 2015 those eastern parts rank with numbers close to 3 Mio. per Region. (Oblast) The distribution is not very valid as Ukraine is a large Country.Its about 30% bigger as California

There is enough Farmland in the East close to China  ans Southern parts from Altai to Dagestan.

Edited February 7, 2022 by Starschy

[Tomasz + 1,608]

People are massively overcomplicating the Nato thing.

Its very simple. Russia doesnt want any Nato weapons in Ukraine on its border where bulk of pop live in same way US didnt want missiles in Cuba so is demanding talks to deal with this issue. That's all

 

[bobo88 + 58]

20 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

You don't get it. The "breadbasket of Europe" is now Russia, not Ukraine. Except that the EU ain't buying, they got plenty of their own. So, make it the world. Russia supplies about a quarter of global grain exports

https://rujec.org/article/50308/

In terms of money, it's a pittance. Agriculture is just 3.7% of GDP, apparently

https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Russia/share_of_agriculture/

It keeps growing on its own

https://www.agroberichtenbuitenland.nl/actueel/nieuws/2021/10/22/export-of-agricultural-products-has-increased

The reasons for this should be obvious. Not only affordable labor, but also fertilizers and fuel.

If Russia were to annex Ukraine, it would have to subsidize them to get them on par. Why don't the sponsors of Maidan do that, instead? The place is broken.

"Breadbasket of Europe" is a phrase describing the resource.  France, Germany and Poland export a lot of wheat.

Russia exports about 20% of global demand.  Ukraine exports just under 10% of global demand. Thus 20% + 10% = 30% .  That would make Russian export of wheat greater than Europe or North America. 

30% is good. Very good. 

Russia's biggest buyer Egypt (China increasing every year).  New "Express Trains" will allow Russia to export grains to interior China in three or four days at a very competitive price.

Wheat production is growing as is demand.  Russia (including Ukraine) will be able to competitively compete for all China's grain buys , especially their massive interior markets demand. 

 

 

 

[bobo88 + 58]

15 hours ago, Tomasz said:

People are massively overcomplicating the Nato thing.

Its very simple. Russia doesnt want any Nato weapons in Ukraine on its border where bulk of pop live in same way US didnt want missiles in Cuba so is demanding talks to deal with this issue. That's all

 

So is that why they annexed Crimea ?

Answer: no 

Personally I think NATO no longer serves it's original purpose.  If Russia invaded the Balkans how many of NATO members would actually show up and fight.

Answer: not many 

Biden met with German Chancellor today .  Both spoke to press and said nothing. The usual platitudes. 

Like Crimea I think Russia wants another bite at the apple.  Eastern Ukraine farmland and total control of the Azov Sea. The annexation will be easy.  Like "another day at the beach"

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 8, 2022 by bobo88

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Crimea is strategic naval base of Russian Navy and place sacred by russian blood. 

Once famous director Konchałovski said that he personally doesnt suport Putin. But he cant think about NATO base in Crimea.

[bobo88 + 58]

15 hours ago, Tomasz said:

Crimea is strategic naval base of Russian Navy and place sacred by russian blood. 

Once famous director Konchałovski said that he personally doesnt suport Putin. But he cant think about NATO base in Crimea.

What ?

NATO doesn't have a base in Crimea.

Once famous director is getting a little ahead of himself.

 

My other post that quotes '19 article why Putin wanted Crimea.  Oil and natural gas.

The second article linked from 2014 says Putin wanted Crimea for the oil and gas.  Must look at MAP detailing detailing potential oil and gas reserves off of Ukraine coast, Crimea and off Ukraine in Azov .  Witten in '14 but reads like written a month ago. 

 

Edited February 8, 2022 by bobo88

[surrept33 + 609]

6 hours ago, Tomasz said:

People are massively overcomplicating the Nato thing.

Its very simple. Russia doesnt want any Nato weapons in Ukraine on its border where bulk of pop live in same way US didnt want missiles in Cuba so is demanding talks to deal with this issue. That's all

 

Why the fixation on the Ukraine tho? I mean, the US could just as easily put a lot of weapons in Tallinn and Narva which seem much closer to St. Petersburg or Moscow...

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,131]

1 hour ago, surrept33 said:

Why the fixation on the Ukraine tho? I mean, the US could just as easily put a lot of weapons in Tallinn and Narva which seem much closer to St. Petersburg or Moscow...

Because if Russia can grab all land East of Dnieper, Ukraine as a country is screwed and defenseless.  Dnieper river is the main transport for grain/industry.  Goes into Belarus too. A big ol' river is hard to cross and cuts 1000km of border requiring lots of defense from the Russian perspective and is prime farm land so makes lots of $$$.  Has nothing to do with NATO, or weapons as you pointed out.  All a power play. 

[Tomasz + 1,608]

You still have an diplomatic option on the table. 

You can still agree to finlandize Ukraine voluntarily by enforcing Mińsk agreements or Russia will do it by other means.

Western military forces east of Bug river are  unacceptable as much as USSR missiles on Cuba in the 1960s.

Time to decide.i

Because with full Chinese support and oil price near triple digits Putin will not back down this topic nowadays.

 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

6 hours ago, bobo88 said:

What ?

NATO doesn't have a base in Crimea.

Once famous director is getting a little ahead of himself.

 

My other post that quotes '19 article why Putin wanted Crimea.  Oil and natural gas.

The second article linked from 2014 says Putin wanted Crimea for the oil and gas.  Must look at MAP detailing detailing potential oil and gas reserves off of Ukraine coast, Crimea and off Ukraine in Azov Sea.

 

The few offshore rigs off Crimea, they've actually closed. Too small-time. The bottom of the Black Sea is covered in methane hydrates. Potential source of methane when regular methane runs out, but not yet.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

On 2/7/2022 at 5:03 AM, bobo88 said:

Taking Eastern Ukraine will be easy.  It will take days not months.

* Cultural differences between Eastern/Southern Ukraine and Western Ukraine 

* East has large percentage of population that sympathize with Russia.

* Majority of Eastern Ukraine speak Russian (approx 30% population) with Western Ukraine speaks Ukraine Language a mixture of Slavic languages. (approx 70% of the population)

* A large percentage of Eastern and Southern Ukraine vote with the Ukraine Communist Party and support their pro Russia platform.

* Additionally, Ukraine has enacted a new law that states all Ukraine media will be presented in the Ukraine Language beginning in May.  Putin will have control of the east well before that.

The east (and most of the south if Putin goes for it) will show little resistance and many will actually welcome the Russians.

 

Nobody knows, anymore, what they speak and what they think.

The Communist Party was prohibited back in 2014. The designate pro-Russians be these guys

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opposition_Platform_—_For_Life

Most likely, just lip service for a few token issues popular with the core southern and eastern electorate. Many of these guys were already in the government under Yanukovych and before and had every chance to deliver. Did jack, though.

Medvedchuk is an interesting fellow.

[bobo88 + 58]

10 hours ago, Tomasz said:

You still have an diplomatic option on the table. 

You can still agree to finlandize Ukraine voluntarily by enforcing Mińsk agreements or Russia will do it by other means.

Western military forces east of Bug river are  unacceptable as much as USSR missiles on Cuba in the 1960s.

Time to decide.i

Because with full Chinese support and oil price near triple digits Putin will not back down this topic nowadays.

 

The NATO missile narrative is a "Red Herring" .  A decoy. That's my opinion.

As was pointed out previously the Crimea annex was being planned for 6 years before Putin acted.   Phase II is about to begin.

If Putin wants Eastern Ukraine there is no better time than now.  Putin must act before Biden resigns for "medical reasons". 

I don't see Biden lasting beyond this year.

My opinion only.

Edited February 8, 2022 by bobo88

[bobo88 + 58]

To be honest with you I don't have a problem with Putin's annex of Eastern/Southern Ukraine. France and Germany likely agree.  Balkans and Poland not so much. 

Ukraine is the most corrupt nation in the European sphere.

Just ask Hunter.

 

The Eastern and Southern provence are Russian speaking and the majority vote Ukraine Communist Party (UCP) and it's pro Russian platform. Just like Crimea.

The Ukraine bureaucrats, Corrupt leaders, International Oil Corporations, Burisma, Grain  Importers may not like it. That doesn't bother me. 

If one goes back and considers the history of the region Russia may have an argument to debate.  Then again maybe they don't.  If they say they do it gives them an excuse to go for it.

Last night on the news they estimated 25,000 Ukraine casualties.  Not if they only go for the Eastern/Southern oblasts. It will be over in no time.

Putin is smart enough to not take the capital.  Why would he ?

 

 

Edited February 11, 2022 by bobo88

[bobo88 + 58]

On 2/8/2022 at 9:29 AM, bobo88 said:

To be honest with you I don't have a problem with Putin's annex of Eastern/Southern Ukraine. France and Germany likely agree.  Balkans and Poland not so much. 

Ukraine is the most corrupt nation in the European sphere.

Just ask Hunter.

 

The Eastern and Southern provence are Russian speaking and the majority vote Ukraine Communist Party (UCP) and it's pro Russian platform. Just like Crimea.

The Ukraine bureaucrats, Corrupt leaders, International Oil Corporations, Burisma, Grain  Importers may not like it. That doesn't bother me. 

If one goes back and considers the history of the region Russia may have an argument to debate.  Then again maybe they don't.  If they say they do it gives them an excuse to go for it.

Last night on the news they estimated 25,000 Ukraine casualties.  Not if they only go for the Eastern/Southern provences It will be over in 3 or 4 days.

Putin is smart enough to not take the capital.  Why would he ?

 

 

2014 Conflict

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/79/2014_pro-Russian_unrest_in_Ukraine.png