Tomasz

 What Russia has reached over three months diplomatic and military pressure on West ?

Recommended Posts

(edited)

Interesting. 
 

Quote

 

Norway has tons and tons of fish farms within the fjords. And Norway is not part of the European Union.

Norway Doubles Import of Russian Fish Feed as Gov't Prioritizes National Economic Interests

 

Quote

#China’s Sinopec Corp has cut its purchases of Russia’s ESPO crude oil in July as other buyers, including from #India, were willing to pay higher prices, trade sources said. #oott #Russia

https://www.reuters.com/article/china-russia-oil-sinopec/chinas-sinopec-outbid-for-russian-espo-crude-in-july-traders-idUSL4N2Z0112

Quote

 

SINGAPORE, July 25 (Reuters) - China’s Sinopec Corp has cut its purchases of Russia’s ESPO crude oil in July as other buyers, including from India, were willing to pay higher prices, trade sources said.

A pull-back in Russian oil purchases by Sinopec, Asia’s biggest refiner, suggests that its earlier buying was driven by economics rather than political considerations.

Chinese and Indian oil companies have increased their Russian oil imports in May and June despite Western sanctions on Russia as a result of the Ukraine conflict that have upended the global oil trade.

China has refrained from condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that started on Feb. 24, which Moscow calls a “special military operation”, and in a meeting on Feb. 4 the leaders of the two countries said their friendship had “no limits”.

Sinopec, through its trading arm Unipec, is expected to lift fewer cargoes in July after submitting lower bids to Russian exporters who then sold the cargos to trading companies and other Chinese clients that bid higher, said four sources who participate in the market and declined to be identified.

Sinopec had been the biggest buyer of ESPO, which loads from the port of Kozmino in Russia’s Far East, in the past two months, snapping up an estimated 20 million barrels, according to traders and data from tanker tracker Vortexa Analytics.

Sinopec bid at discounts of about $20 a barrel below the price of Middle East benchmark Dubai on a free-on-board basis for July shipments, similar to what it paying for cargoes in May and June, while deals were done at $8 to $13 discounts, the sources said.

“Sinopec may only lift a very small amount as their bids were too low for the Russians,” said one of the four sources, a China-based trading executive.

A Sinopec spokesman declined to comment on the company’s purchases.

The companies that beat out Sinopec for the ESPO cargoes in July include Dubai-based trader Coral Energy, state-owned companies CNOOC, PetroChina, and Shandong Port International Trade, which is backed by the local provincial government, according to three trading sources and data from Vortexa.

Russia is expected to raise its ESPO exports from Kozmino to a record of 880,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July, Reuters reported on June 7, from an average of 750,000 bpd in 2022.

TRADERS

Swiss-based trader Paramount Energy, which specializes in marketing the output of small, independent Russian producers, is expected to lift around 7 million barrels of ESPO in July, one of the largest lifters, said two sources with knowledge of shipping fixtures.

A regular marketer of ESPO crude to Chinese independent refiners since 2016, Paramount has expanded its China marketing in recent months by working with Chinese state-run trader Zhenhua Oil.

Paramount Energy declined to comment on its July volumes but it said it has delivered Russian cargoes to customers under long-term commercial contracts established before Feb. 24, when Russia invaded Ukraine.

“The company is working to reduce its trading of Russian crude as these long-term contracts expire, a process that is ongoing,” said a company spokesperson.

Top Russian exporter Rosneft is also likely sending more ESPO shipments to India under its recent supply agreement with state-run Indian Oil Corp.

Before the war, China’s independent refiners purchased nearly all of the ESPO cargoes available and the crude rarely flowed to India because the longer voyage reduced the profitability of purchasing it.

So far in July four shipments totalling close to 3 million barrels were destined for India, up from three in June, according to traders and Vortexa data. (Reporting by Chen Aizhu; Editing by Florence Tan and Christian Schmollinger)

 

 

Edited by Tomasz

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/rickards-needless-death-and-misery

Rickards: Needless Death And Misery

Tyler Durden's Photo
by Tyler Durden
Monday, Jul 25, 2022 - 02:30 AM

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

The war in Ukraine is in its sixth month, and there’s no end in sight.

Here’s what we know…

Almost everything you heard about the war in Ukraine from U.S. media over the course of March, April and May was a lie.

Needless-Death-and-Misery-650x360.jpg?it

You heard that Putin was losing the war.

You heard that Russians had poor training and low morale and were deserting in droves. You heard that Ukrainians were destroying Russian armor in large numbers to blunt the Russian advance.

None of this was true.

In fact, Russian troops have achieved major victories in Mariupol, Kherson, Severodonetsk, Lysychansk and other key targets that control rivers, ports and junctions in Ukraine.

U.S. Willing to Fight Russia to the Last Ukrainian

This article isn’t about strategy and I don’t want to get too deeply into the weeds, but Russia’s next targets are Slovyansk and Bakhmut, which will consolidate Russia’s control over the Luhansk and Donetsk regions.

Russia has also deployed anti-drone laser systems that have neutralized Ukraine’s ability to target Russian positions with drones. The endgame is the takeover of Odessa, which would give Russia control of 100% of Ukraine’s coastlines along the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea.

A negotiated settlement that cedes Russian control over Crimea and the Russian-speaking parts of eastern Ukraine is probably the most realistic solution available to end the war. But the U.S. doesn’t want the war to end. Its plan is to wear Russia down through a protracted conflict, no matter how much the Ukrainian people suffer.

The battlefield situation aside, the story is even worse from the U.S. perspective…

Blowback!

Russia is not just winning the war on the ground. It’s winning the global financial and economic war launched by Biden and our European allies.

Russia’s revenues from oil and natural gas exports are at all-time highs. The Russian ruble is much stronger today than it was when the war began. China and India are buying all the Russian oil that Europe is refusing to buy.

Meanwhile, the economies of the U.S. and the EU are in or very near to recession. Inflation is out of control in the West. Commodity shortages will lead quickly to food shortages and more empty shelves in supermarkets.

Across the board, Biden’s economic sanctions have backfired and are hurting the U.S. and Europe far more than they are hurting Russia.

Not Pro-Russian, But Pro-Truth

I’ve been reporting honestly on the war since the beginning. My readers have not been misled by false reporting because I’ve been candid about the real impact of sanctions and Russia’s brutal but effective battlefield tactics.

It’s not that I’m pro-Russian — I’m not. I’m pro-truth. And I don’t defend the Russian invasion in any way (although I do understand it).

Even Bloomberg and The New York Times are now starting to admit that the war is a lost cause for Ukraine and the U.S. economy is suffering from sanctions aimed at Russia. But it’s a little late for legacy media to get their story straight.

What we know right now is the economic damage to the U.S. economy will get much worse before the economy gets better. Biden won’t stop the sanctions soon. That means the trashing of the U.S. economy will continue.

Meanwhile, Russia is “temporarily” shutting down the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline to Germany for repairs. Of course, the temporary shutdown may become permanent. It’s just more proof that U.S.-led sanctions only hurt the U.S. and Europe, not Russia.

Failed Sanctions Against Russia May Actually Lead to Other Wars

Here’s another potentially dangerous side effect of the failed sanctions campaign against Russia:

Economic sanctions may now facilitate war instead of preventing or stopping it. Why? Because U.S. sanctions on Russia are a complete failure. Nations considering invasions that might have been deterred because of sanctions threats may now feel emboldened and that they can proceed with confidence.

How this new dynamic plays out in hotspots like the Taiwan Strait remains to be seen. But it would be deeply ironic if sanctions actually encouraged China to move against Taiwan.

These are the sorts of issues that should be thoroughly thought through before action is taken. But our political leaders are incapable of thinking even one move ahead.

The U.S. has already committed about $56 billion to assist Ukraine, which will likely turn out to be a very poor investment. But American taxpayers might be fleeced even more…

Give Us More Money!

The prime minister of Ukraine has calmly asked an international conference for $750 billion of assistance to rebuild Ukraine after the war. Nice try. There are a few problems with this. First of all, there will be no Ukraine to rebuild, at least not in its current form.

Russia will take somewhere between a third and half the country and keep it. The parts that Russia is taking control of include the industrial nexus, the largest natural resource deposits and the most fertile land. Russia will be able to finance the reconstruction of their conquests using the very industrial capacity, mining and agricultural output they have captured.

Russia will also control the ports and major rivers and will be able to tax the remainder of Ukraine for access. The gradual result will be a prosperous part of Ukraine controlled by Russia and a desperately poor part of Ukraine left to the corrupt oligarchs under Zelenskyy.

You’re on the Hook to Rebuild Ukraine

When asked how Ukraine will finance the $750 billion demanded, the prime minister said they could use assets seized from Russian oligarchs. But that’s ridiculous. There may be $5 billion or $10 billion in yachts and townhouses, but nothing close to $750 billion.

The truth is that this money will be expected to come from the U.S. and the EU, either directly or indirectly through the World Bank and the IMF. In other words, you are going to pay for it one way or the other. Of course, most of the money would end up in the hands of corrupt Ukrainian oligarchs.

It’s unlikely much reconstruction will get done anyway because Ukraine has long been a money-laundering operation for the benefit of U.S. politicians including the Clintons, Bidens and Obamas.

That’s something to bear in mind when your taxes start going up to “help” Ukraine.

Edited by Tom Nolan
  • Like 2
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Tomasz said:

"The companies that beat out Sinopec for the ESPO cargoes in July include Dubai-based trader Coral Energy, state-owned companies CNOOC, PetroChina, and Shandong Port International Trade, which is backed by the local provincial government."  So other Chinese companies are outbidding Sinopec.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The shelling of Odessa port was a powerful remainder there is NO ceasefire but only a grain export agreement. Target was military part of seaport not civil part.

Also to make wheat price drop a little but not to much.

The some story is with NS I.

Extremely high prices are countermeasures to western sanctions.

 

 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

I have another question.

According to IEA Russian oil production should be in June-July about 8 milion barrels.

Its about 10.7-10.8

But to be honest is there anyone who would really wants to see it at 8 nearly 3 milion lover?

Maybe a real reason why oil is not really getting higher and higher is this that there is actually a LOT more Russian oil than previously expected?

 

 

Edited by Tomasz

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, frankfurter said:

USSA is the new acronym. proof you are too ignorant.

 

Maybe for a Fucking socialist Like you! More proof your IQ is below 60; you're a functional idiot; your mother probably still feeds you and changes yours depends!

  • Haha 2
  • Downvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Quote

 

Energy Markets Didn't React As Expected To Russian Sanctions

By Ellen R. Wald, Ph.D.Commodities Jul 21, 2022 05:43AM ET 

Russian oil did not come off the market when sanctions were introduced

In reality, demand for Russian oil increased

Growing unwillingness in Europe to sacrifice economic growth for Ukraine

It has been almost five months since Western Europe first started to obstruct the movement of Russian energy resources in response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine. On Feb. 22, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz suspended the certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which was ready to start delivering natural gas to Germany.

Since that time, we have seen a declaration of sanctions that forced western oil and gas companies to exit projects in Russia; export controls on products that would support the Russian oil and gas industry; a U.S. ban on importing Russian oil, natural gas and coal; and commitments from Britain and the E.U. to phase out or ban the importation of Russian oil, petroleum products and coal delivered by sea at later dates.

So how have these actions impacted the market, and what we can expect with regards to Russian oil and gas in the future.

1. Re-routing of oil and gas flows

As I predicted, Russian oil did not come off the market when the west shunned it. After a brief period where Russia cut some production, Russian oil companies found new customers in India and China. They offered significant discounts to refiners that were willing to pay for, transport and insure the oil. As oil prices soared into the triple digits, these discounts made Russian oil even more attractive. Russia opened a huge new market for its oil in India and substantially increased its exports to China. In fact, Russia has overtaken Saudi Arabia as the top supplier to China. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s sales to China have dipped. In May, Russia became India’s second largest supplier of oil, sending 819,000 bpd of oil to Indian refiners. This is up from just 75,000 bpd last year. Less Russian oil is heading to Europe and much more is heading to Asia.

India and China’s appetite for discounted Russian oil is likely to continue for as long as oil prices remain high (or at least higher than the discounts they get from Russia). There is some discussion that the U.S. may try to impose secondary sanctions on companies that import Russian oil, however this will be extremely difficult to implement. Expect the elevated oil flows from Russia to India and China to continue while displaced Saudi oil may end up in Europe.

2. Russian production and revenues are up

The point of the sanctions and bans was to cut Russia’s revenue from oil. However, these sanctions, most of which don’t actually go into effect until December, have actually done the opposite. As oil prices rose (in part due to these actions) discounted Russian oil became more attractive to non-western countries. They found ways to subvert sanctions on banking transactions and maritime insurance, and soon the demand for Russian oil was actually higher than supply. In response, Russian oil companies have increased production, pumping an average of 10.78 million bpd in July. This in an increase of nearly 1 million bpd compared to Russia’s production in June, which, according to Platts, averaged 9.75 million bpd. According to U.S. officials, Russia’s oil revenue has increased by 50% from the start of 2022. Expect Russian oil revenues to remain elevated for as long as the sanctions remain in place, barring a serious global recession. The G7 has been discussing plans to institute a “price cap” on Russian oil, but it is unclear how this price cap will be enforced, and it is extremely unlikely for any such mechanism to be implemented before December.

3. Europe’s need for Russian energy outweighs its politics

Despite its talk about cutting off Russian energy revenue to punish Russia for its military operations in Ukraine, Europe has continued to buy Russian oil and gas products. In July, 60% of Europe’s imports of diesel fuel came from Russia. However, the E.U. agreed in May to cut 90% of its petroleum imports from Russia by the end of 2022. The E.U. is also calling on all European nations to cut their natural gas use by 15% from August 2022 to March 2023. The idea is to reduce Europe’s dependency on Russian natural gas and cut Russian natural gas revenues. In the event of a supply emergency, the European Union could make the cut mandatory. Already, some European nations are pushing back. Spain, for example, which has other sources of natural gas, does not support the proposal, because it calls for an economic sacrifice that they believe is unwarranted. Traders should not assume that these cuts, bans and sanctions will all be implemented as written, given the growing unwillingness in Europe to sacrifice on behalf of Ukraine. Expect that Europe’s desire for energy will continue to outweigh politics.

 

https://www.investing.com/analysis/energy-markets-didnt-react-as-expected-to-russian-sanctions-200627421

PS

A someone mentioned in comment.

Quote

Yes, that was strange, but I wouldn't jump to conclusions. The author is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, a think tank that Russia has described as a threat to its system and which it added to its list of "undesirable" organizations, barring it from Russia. So...

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

In fact, the current situation scares me a lot

Personally I hope the gas will still flow to Europe.

Only with all due respect I am terrified also of people's stupidity.

As you know, Gazprom cut off supplies to my home Poland.

Only if Poland has handed over 480 tanks to Ukraine as of today, apart from assessing whether it did the right thing or not, would it not be a little bit absurd in such a situation to still send gas to Poland?

Edited by Tomasz
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Personally I find it rather highly unlikely Russia cut gas to 0%

- precipitates crisis

- kills market access for good

- ends diplomatic possible for deals

- ends cash

But THREAT of cutting is another matter.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Actually Oil price should go down because Russian Oil comes UAE and France will buy it so Russian Oil comes to market so oil price should go down 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Problem with all these sanctions is that Russia is currently producing 10.78 according to government in July.

Sustainable production is something like 11.0-11.5 but rather for sure not more.

So there is NO big cut in production right now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

So for the sake of strictness this high gasoline prices are largely  rather not only due to Putin.

This is what Biden and Kaczynski make you believe.

How by Putin?

Russia produces today some 10.8 million barrels in July. It is after 2 years of lockdowns that probably has had a heavy impact on the industry as a whole and is able to produce STABLE maybe  0.5-0.6 million more.

The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies once estimated that even if all the western companies entered Russia to the maximum, it means not only were there no sanctions, but some full cooperation, so that Russia was once able to produce a maximum maybe of 12 million barrels.

Russia has been increasing oil production under Putin slowly but surely for something like 20 years before COVID.

And yes Russia is exporting less now.

Well, what is actually needed, first of all, to conduct a serious, though not really a full-scale war?

For all those tanks and combat vehicles?

 What above all?

As WW2 teach us first of all, it is crude oil for the production of diesel for tanks.

If so, the topic of printing money like mad over the last 15 years is crucial.

I ignore the refining issues: Russia is a major producer of mainly diesel and heating oil on a global scale.

This explains the phenomenon of ultra-high diesel prices, but not everything.

Edited by Tomasz

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Tom Nolan said:

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/rickards-needless-death-and-misery

Rickards: Needless Death And Misery

Tyler Durden's Photo
by Tyler Durden
Monday, Jul 25, 2022 - 02:30 AM

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

The war in Ukraine is in its sixth month, and there’s no end in sight.

Here’s what we know…

Almost everything you heard about the war in Ukraine from U.S. media over the course of March, April and May was a lie.

Needless-Death-and-Misery-650x360.jpg?it

You heard that Putin was losing the war.

You heard that Russians had poor training and low morale and were deserting in droves. You heard that Ukrainians were destroying Russian armor in large numbers to blunt the Russian advance.

None of this was true.

In fact, Russian troops have achieved major victories in Mariupol, Kherson, Severodonetsk, Lysychansk and other key targets that control rivers, ports and junctions in Ukraine.

U.S. Willing to Fight Russia to the Last Ukrainian

This article isn’t about strategy and I don’t want to get too deeply into the weeds, but Russia’s next targets are Slovyansk and Bakhmut, which will consolidate Russia’s control over the Luhansk and Donetsk regions.

Russia has also deployed anti-drone laser systems that have neutralized Ukraine’s ability to target Russian positions with drones. The endgame is the takeover of Odessa, which would give Russia control of 100% of Ukraine’s coastlines along the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea.

A negotiated settlement that cedes Russian control over Crimea and the Russian-speaking parts of eastern Ukraine is probably the most realistic solution available to end the war. But the U.S. doesn’t want the war to end. Its plan is to wear Russia down through a protracted conflict, no matter how much the Ukrainian people suffer.

The battlefield situation aside, the story is even worse from the U.S. perspective…

Blowback!

Russia is not just winning the war on the ground. It’s winning the global financial and economic war launched by Biden and our European allies.

Russia’s revenues from oil and natural gas exports are at all-time highs. The Russian ruble is much stronger today than it was when the war began. China and India are buying all the Russian oil that Europe is refusing to buy.

Meanwhile, the economies of the U.S. and the EU are in or very near to recession. Inflation is out of control in the West. Commodity shortages will lead quickly to food shortages and more empty shelves in supermarkets.

Across the board, Biden’s economic sanctions have backfired and are hurting the U.S. and Europe far more than they are hurting Russia.

Not Pro-Russian, But Pro-Truth

I’ve been reporting honestly on the war since the beginning. My readers have not been misled by false reporting because I’ve been candid about the real impact of sanctions and Russia’s brutal but effective battlefield tactics.

It’s not that I’m pro-Russian — I’m not. I’m pro-truth. And I don’t defend the Russian invasion in any way (although I do understand it).

Even Bloomberg and The New York Times are now starting to admit that the war is a lost cause for Ukraine and the U.S. economy is suffering from sanctions aimed at Russia. But it’s a little late for legacy media to get their story straight.

What we know right now is the economic damage to the U.S. economy will get much worse before the economy gets better. Biden won’t stop the sanctions soon. That means the trashing of the U.S. economy will continue.

Meanwhile, Russia is “temporarily” shutting down the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline to Germany for repairs. Of course, the temporary shutdown may become permanent. It’s just more proof that U.S.-led sanctions only hurt the U.S. and Europe, not Russia.

Failed Sanctions Against Russia May Actually Lead to Other Wars

Here’s another potentially dangerous side effect of the failed sanctions campaign against Russia:

Economic sanctions may now facilitate war instead of preventing or stopping it. Why? Because U.S. sanctions on Russia are a complete failure. Nations considering invasions that might have been deterred because of sanctions threats may now feel emboldened and that they can proceed with confidence.

How this new dynamic plays out in hotspots like the Taiwan Strait remains to be seen. But it would be deeply ironic if sanctions actually encouraged China to move against Taiwan.

These are the sorts of issues that should be thoroughly thought through before action is taken. But our political leaders are incapable of thinking even one move ahead.

The U.S. has already committed about $56 billion to assist Ukraine, which will likely turn out to be a very poor investment. But American taxpayers might be fleeced even more…

Give Us More Money!

The prime minister of Ukraine has calmly asked an international conference for $750 billion of assistance to rebuild Ukraine after the war. Nice try. There are a few problems with this. First of all, there will be no Ukraine to rebuild, at least not in its current form.

Russia will take somewhere between a third and half the country and keep it. The parts that Russia is taking control of include the industrial nexus, the largest natural resource deposits and the most fertile land. Russia will be able to finance the reconstruction of their conquests using the very industrial capacity, mining and agricultural output they have captured.

Russia will also control the ports and major rivers and will be able to tax the remainder of Ukraine for access. The gradual result will be a prosperous part of Ukraine controlled by Russia and a desperately poor part of Ukraine left to the corrupt oligarchs under Zelenskyy.

You’re on the Hook to Rebuild Ukraine

When asked how Ukraine will finance the $750 billion demanded, the prime minister said they could use assets seized from Russian oligarchs. But that’s ridiculous. There may be $5 billion or $10 billion in yachts and townhouses, but nothing close to $750 billion.

The truth is that this money will be expected to come from the U.S. and the EU, either directly or indirectly through the World Bank and the IMF. In other words, you are going to pay for it one way or the other. Of course, most of the money would end up in the hands of corrupt Ukrainian oligarchs.

It’s unlikely much reconstruction will get done anyway because Ukraine has long been a money-laundering operation for the benefit of U.S. politicians including the Clintons, Bidens and Obamas.

That’s something to bear in mind when your taxes start going up to “help” Ukraine.

Is this not what a few of us here have been saying?

Remember the words of Kissinger: better to be Amurca's enemy than a friend.

The end may be in sight. Ukraine may be divided into 2, a poor north and a rich south; but maybe not, as north would still be a territory for Natostan control. Sullivan has warned Zenskyshit to guard his personal safety: a euphemism for a CIA hit if ever was one. With Z gone, Ukraine can be another USSA achievement; an utterly failed state like Libya and Iraq, complete with warlords, slave traders, pimps, etc.  But a state that Russia would be nearly forced to support and rebuild with cash and troops. With all else lost, the USSA must grab for something.

So back to topic, what has Putin achieved? Plenty. If nothing else, he has achieved the beginning of the end of USSA hegemony.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Tomasz said:

Problem with all these sanctions is that Russia is currently producing 10.78 according to government in July.

Sustainable production is something like 11.0-11.5 but rather for sure not more.

So there is NO big cut in production right now.

In other words, the data for oil, coupled with the data per your charts above, indicates the effects of sanctions is zero. In fact, 'friendly' countries have benefitted significantly; and per Rickards, USSA and EU have lost significantly.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

First of all one of main topic was denazification of Ukraine.

Believe me or not but even western press has quite a big problem with nazi emblemats from ukrainian soldiers or funerals.

Im not saying all Ukrainians are Nazis not at all. But there is at least a rather big problem with that.

Edited by Tomasz

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ukraine will be gone; it's a matter of time only.  The real question is which 'country' will be next in line for the black ops by the USSA mafia families of Bush, Clinton, Obama, Biden?

Japan?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No sanctions hurts them. And oil is sold with big discount.

But Ukraine is simply a truly vital matter for Russia. More probably  than for USA and West.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

To the topic of war. I'm not a military expert but Żeleński changed chief of SBU TWICE in one month. Changed army commander recently and also chief prosecutor this month. Also purged quite a lot of people for potential links with Russia. Also Ukrainian gold reserves was allegedly evacuated -12 billions dollars.

Taking under consideration there is  no collapse of Ukrainian army it looks quite  strange. Just like Hitler in 1944/1945.

Douglas McGregor and Scott Ritter works for Russia Today. They are biased a lot but maybe right what's going on there.

Edited by Tomasz

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Udara Hemachandra said:

Actually Oil price should go down because Russian Oil comes UAE and France will buy it so Russian Oil comes to market so oil price should go down 

It's like you are expecting the pricing process to be rational?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, frankfurter said:

Is this not what a few of us here have been saying?

Remember the words of Kissinger: better to be Amurca's enemy than a friend.

The end may be in sight. Ukraine may be divided into 2, a poor north and a rich south; but maybe not, as north would still be a territory for Natostan control. Sullivan has warned Zenskyshit to guard his personal safety: a euphemism for a CIA hit if ever was one. With Z gone, Ukraine can be another USSA achievement; an utterly failed state like Libya and Iraq, complete with warlords, slave traders, pimps, etc.  But a state that Russia would be nearly forced to support and rebuild with cash and troops. With all else lost, the USSA must grab for something.

So back to topic, what has Putin achieved? Plenty. If nothing else, he has achieved the beginning of the end of USSA hegemony.

I don't see how rump Ukraine could be viable if it loses access to the sea. With all the debt they just piled up...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

55 minutes ago, Tomasz said:

To the topic of war. I'm not a military expert but Żeleński changed chief of SBU TWICE in one month. Changed army commander recently and also chief prosecutor this month. Also purged quite a lot of people for potential links with Russia. Also Ukrainian gold reserves was allegedly evacuated -12 billions dollars.

Taking under consideration there is  no collapse of Ukrainian army it looks quite  strange. Just like Hitler in 1944/1945.

Douglas McGregor and Scott Ritter works for Russia Today. They are biased a lot but maybe right what's going on there.

Running Ukraine takes $5-$6 billion monthly straight out of Uncle Sam's pocket. If (when?) this stops, Ukrainian "economy" comes crashing down. Apparently, they are still short anyway and are printing UAH (witness the UAH devaluation of a couple of days ago)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They said they need just 9 billions PER month to balance budget. And potentially 750bilion for reconstruction.

Ukraine GDP was 180 bilion. 

According to Russian Forbes war cost Russian budget 400 milion per day. Even using as much old weapons as possible and just all 200.000 soldiers.

Take your conclusions.

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The next chapter.

If I understand correctly tweet by von der Leyen.

Maidan was about choosing European Union instead of Russia.

So in Aprill EU have them 1 bilion euro donation.

For next two months Germany simply blocked additional 8 billions.

So today they finally made a decision.

Check Twitter of von der Leyen.

So Leyen is boasting  boasting that additional maybe note 8 but still 1.59 was given.

Twitteratii are celebrating.

Its written something Like that this additional help od 1.59 bilion euros  INCLUDING 1 bilion grom Aprill.

Nice wording I must say.

This is Western Europe against Russia over Ukraine.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Tomasz said:

I have another question.

According to IEA Russian oil production should be in June-July about 8 milion barrels.

Its about 10.7-10.8

But to be honest is there anyone who would really wants to see it at 8 nearly 3 milion lover?

Maybe a real reason why oil is not really getting higher and higher is this that there is actually a LOT more Russian oil than previously expected?

 

 

I don't remember any IEA prediction ever coming out right.

There is certainly a lot more Russian LPG (it is exempt from OPEC+ quotas)

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.