Ron Wagner

How Far Have We Really Gotten With Alternative Energy

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On 3/19/2022 at 8:26 AM, KeyboardWarrior said:

You seen the price of coal as of late? 

Coal will get a temporary revival as many nations shun russian gas. 

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2 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

The UK's powergen in 2021 was made up of 38.5% NG, 44% of which was from its own production.

NG is the predominant form of energy used in UK powergen, however renewables are catching up fast especially wind power, coupled with many large scale battery storage back ups to maintain reliability. Renewables were 25.5%, with wind 20.1% of that total.

https://grid.iamkate.com/

https://www.nationalworld.com/lifestyle/money/where-does-the-uk-get-gas-from-how-much-is-imported-from-russia-current-supply-and-if-theres-a-gas-shortage-3391351

The UK is extremely fortunate geographically to have the gulf stream blowing along its coastline almost all of the time. Once the infrastructure is built it is low cost. Wind power as an energy source is free NG isnt.

Moral of the story is the UK's wind power currently creates 10's of thousands of jobs and has saved many historical oil & gas businesses as they diversify their skills into renewables. The US is set to have a lot more wind turbines on and offshore in the next few years so get used to them.

Solar is so cheap now against retail costs its worth using surpluses to heat hot water to displace gas use. 

I have 1.46KW of PV (self install) and a diverter than sends surpluses to the immersion. Late summer I'm putting in another 2.4KW. 

Its a simple form of storage and frees up gas

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probably a better question Ron is where will we be over the next 10 years. 

Offshore wind is now opening up globally whereas it was just limited to north west Europe. I see Brazil has recently opened up seabed areas that can support 17 GW of generation. 

Europe still has a massive pipeline of major projects, particularly the UK

South Korea, USA even Australia is moving ion this area. 

 

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If you want a good example look at this. Wind alone yesterday supplied 23.5% of Europes (Inc non EU members electricity). If you want to look back you can examine the archive data.

Wind Power Numbers | WindEurope

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On 3/19/2022 at 8:19 AM, Old-Ruffneck said:

Several lib-tards are trying to control the narratives in all the discussions. They know who they are. Just ignore 'em @ronwagn

The "lib-tards" are winning, what does that say about your group?

Losing to weak just means you are weaker. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kzT_0tQQnB0

"I lost to the worst candidate in the history of politics."

-trump

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6 hours ago, NickW said:

If you want a good example look at this. Wind alone yesterday supplied 23.5% of Europes (Inc non EU members electricity). If you want to look back you can examine the archive data.

Wind Power Numbers | WindEurope

Its almost as if Spring/Fall are good for wind above the tropics... Oh wait, it always has been.  Using an energy source for 6-->9 months out of the year is not exactly good. Its not bad either. Just meh.  Solar can fill in another 2 months during high summer(assuming one can get 2 day battery backup continent wide in scale(good luck)...)  And vast majority of energy in use is not electricity, so the claim of 23% is absurd.  Leaves winter when demand is highest and energy generation is lowest during continent wide winter high pressure systems.    It is doable in Windy Europe.  In fact, it is possible in Windy USA as well. Parts of Mongolia, Kazakstan, Australia, S. Africa, and Argentina can work as well, if one goes by "works" with 2 days of battery backup + 9 months a year.  The massive problem is that other 2-->3 months of the year in nearly every zone.  You had better have vast NG storage or coal or a new type of nuclear reactor(my actual solution which makes far more sense combined with NG)

PS: Do not forget EU/USA/Australia have effectively de industrialized, so in reality, energy usage should be much higher.

PPS: If one really is going to go all in on wind etc, I sure would love people to stop being hypocrites and start making their own solar panels and all the other components for wind instead of bringing them in from China and pretending they are "green" without tariffs/taxing said components. 

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(edited)

14 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Next time publish cost of electricity over time...

UK 2010 12.7 pence/kWh  = $0.15kWH USD 2021(before the war) 21.2 pence/kWh. https://www.nimblefins.co.uk/average-cost-electricity-kwh-uk#nogo

So, 15% of grid is "renewable" and price has increased by 80% in same time frame.  Brilliant. 

US 2010 10.5c/kWh--> 11.5cKWh~ and 2021 is now ~13.5c-->15cKWh USD and USA  went from 5% renewable(hydro) to 12%

All this before inflation. If account for inflation, USA e nergy price dropped in middle, mountain, and South of country but New England/California price went WAAAAYYYY up as did not allow for nat gas pipes to be built. 

Difference USA released vast quantities of NG and UK did not.

Moral to story, no nat gas + renewables = you are screwed and will only get worse.

Never heard of Kern River Pipeline I guess or the El Paso NG Southern  or San Juan expansions.  As for crude oil/gasoline, lack of knowledge about blending requirements.   Ethanol has to be brought in by rail from Iowa. That is expeensive.

Sam Cooke described you perfectly because you:

Don´t know much about history
Don´t know much biology
Don´t know much about science books

or a 20+year drought in the Colorado River Basin  causing hydro to  vanish.

Edited by nsdp
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ERCOT is 55% wind plus 8% solar for 8 hours.   44% since midnight.

SPP is 68% wind .  62% since midnight.

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6 hours ago, nsdp said:

Never heard of Kern River Pipeline I guess or the El Paso NG Southern  or San Juan expansions.  As for crude oil/gasoline, lack of knowledge about blending requirements.   Ethanol has to be brought in by rail from Iowa. That is expeensive.

Sam Cooke described you perfectly because you:

Don´t know much about history
Don´t know much biology
Don´t know much about science books

or a 20+year drought in the Colorado River Basin  causing hydro to  vanish.

Ah, never put #'s down.  Very smart.  Kern river is in California... And what does this have to do with anything?  I have hiked that little river past its headwaters.  So? How about all the idiot regulations in CA not allowing drilling in the Monterrey...  is the real deal and blocked the NG pipeline expansions so they are going in SOUTH of the border to Baja for LNG terminals. And... finally the pipelines you listed already existed and are replacements where most of said gas goes to NM/UT/AZ/NV, not CA.

I knew you were smoking something you shouldn't, but damn, this post takes the cake...

And what the Hell are you smoking regarding blending... has zero relevance to discussion of electricity prices,  But hey, you do you for genius.  Far be it from me to stop you showing the world where you pretend gas prices = electricity prices. 

Your genius of wiping your ass with your degrees is amazing. 

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10 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Its almost as if Spring/Fall are good for wind above the tropics... Oh wait, it always has been.  Using an energy source for 6-->9 months out of the year is not exactly good. Its not bad either. Just meh.  Solar can fill in another 2 months during high summer(assuming one can get 2 day battery backup continent wide in scale(good luck)...)  And vast majority of energy in use is not electricity, so the claim of 23% is absurd.  Leaves winter when demand is highest and energy generation is lowest during continent wide winter high pressure systems.    It is doable in Windy Europe.  In fact, it is possible in Windy USA as well. Parts of Mongolia, Kazakstan, Australia, S. Africa, and Argentina can work as well, if one goes by "works" with 2 days of battery backup + 9 months a year.  The massive problem is that other 2-->3 months of the year in nearly every zone.  You had better have vast NG storage or coal or a new type of nuclear reactor(my actual solution which makes far more sense combined with NG)

PS: Do not forget EU/USA/Australia have effectively de industrialized, so in reality, energy usage should be much higher.

PPS: If one really is going to go all in on wind etc, I sure would love people to stop being hypocrites and start making their own solar panels and all the other components for wind instead of bringing them in from China and pretending they are "green" without tariffs/taxing said components. 

Granted the solar panels are mainly from China but its all about leverege. A relatively small investment in chinese solar means offsetting large amounts of gas imports from Russia* over the next 30-40 years. 

* effectively the supplier of last resort now for Europe. 

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How far we have gotten..... That is simple: To the end!
Why? Because we exit the most unique decade in the history of the industrialized world, where de-facto negative "cost" of capital (thanks, Fed!) together with energy and metal prices  below "development/replacement cost" led to the mother of all malinvestments: Wind and Solar.  These Windmills and magic black panels are enormous resource hogs, and it is not even remotely possible to replace them by using the energy "produced" by them in use, and even less possible to use that energy to get new metal/mineral resources to replace them when worn out. These ruins will scatter our landscapes for a few more decades, until smart scrap dealers have them all dismantled and sold. It is the second end of that era (OK, some solar will remain as a niche for remote places).

Broken windmill.jpeg

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15 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Its almost as if Spring/Fall are good for wind above the tropics... Oh wait, it always has been.  Using an energy source for 6-->9 months out of the year is not exactly good. Its not bad either. Just meh.  Solar can fill in another 2 months during high summer(assuming one can get 2 day battery backup continent wide in scale(good luck)...)  And vast majority of energy in use is not electricity, so the claim of 23% is absurd.  Leaves winter when demand is highest and energy generation is lowest during continent wide winter high pressure systems.    It is doable in Windy Europe.  In fact, it is possible in Windy USA as well. Parts of Mongolia, Kazakstan, Australia, S. Africa, and Argentina can work as well, if one goes by "works" with 2 days of battery backup + 9 months a year.  The massive problem is that other 2-->3 months of the year in nearly every zone.  You had better have vast NG storage or coal or a new type of nuclear reactor(my actual solution which makes far more sense combined with NG)

PS: Do not forget EU/USA/Australia have effectively de industrialized, so in reality, energy usage should be much higher.

PPS: If one really is going to go all in on wind etc, I sure would love people to stop being hypocrites and start making their own solar panels and all the other components for wind instead of bringing them in from China and pretending they are "green" without tariffs/taxing said components. 

OK, wind supplied 1/5th of electricity..... Which is not even 1/5th of all energy..... 1/5th of 1/5th is..... 1/25.... For well over a trillion Euro (for which all of Europe could have received 100% emission-free nuclear power, with excess). There is no bigger malinvestment in energy history than these collection systems for diffuse intermittent energy that go under "wind and solar".

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21 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Ah, never put #'s down.  Very smart.  Kern river is in California... And what does this have to do with anything?  I have hiked that little river past its headwaters.  So? How about all the idiot regulations in CA not allowing drilling in the Monterrey...  is the real deal and blocked the NG pipeline expansions so they are going in SOUTH of the border to Baja for LNG terminals. And... finally the pipelines you listed already existed and are replacements where most of said gas goes to NM/UT/AZ/NV, not CA.

I knew you were smoking something you shouldn't, but damn, this post takes the cake...

And what the Hell are you smoking regarding blending... has zero relevance to discussion of electricity prices,  But hey, you do you for genius.  Far be it from me to stop you showing the world where you pretend gas prices = electricity prices. 

Your genius of wiping your ass with your degrees is amazing. 

you show great ignorance. Kern River Pipeline starts at Carter Creek and Whitney Canyon gas plants on the Anschutz ranch in SW Wyoming.  The El Paso expansion from Waha ends at Top Rock  connection to SGE. 100% to California. The capacity of in-state companies to receive natural gas is also an issue. For instance, the delivery capacity from El Paso Natural Gas Company to California is 4.38 billion cubic feet per day. But this is 340 million cubic feet more than the combined daily receiving capacity in California of PG&E, SoCal Gas and Mojave Pipeline Company.

And did you forget this Questar, a pipeline company that operates in the Rocky Mountains area, has received FERC approval to convert its Four Corners Pipeline from crude oil to natural gas. This pipeline extends from the San Juan Basin in Colorado and New Mexico to Long Beach and could deliver 90 million cubic feet per day. The conversion is expected to be completed toward the end of this year.

what about Finally, El Paso Natural Gas Company has purchased the crude-oil All American Pipeline that extends from Santa Barbara to Texas. The company plans to convert the pipeline to transport natural gas from Texas to the California border. This would add 500 million cubic feet per day to California’s capacity

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On 3/23/2022 at 1:55 AM, nsdp said:

you show great ignorance. Kern River Pipeline starts at Carter Creek and Whitney Canyon gas plants on the Anschutz ranch in SW Wyoming.  The El Paso expansion from Waha ends at Top Rock  connection to SGE. 100% to California. The capacity of in-state companies to receive natural gas is also an issue. For instance, the delivery capacity from El Paso Natural Gas Company to California is 4.38 billion cubic feet per day. But this is 340 million cubic feet more than the combined daily receiving capacity in California of PG&E, SoCal Gas and Mojave Pipeline Company.

And did you forget this Questar, a pipeline company that operates in the Rocky Mountains area, has received FERC approval to convert its Four Corners Pipeline from crude oil to natural gas. This pipeline extends from the San Juan Basin in Colorado and New Mexico to Long Beach and could deliver 90 million cubic feet per day. The conversion is expected to be completed toward the end of this year.

what about Finally, El Paso Natural Gas Company has purchased the crude-oil All American Pipeline that extends from Santa Barbara to Texas. The company plans to convert the pipeline to transport natural gas from Texas to the California border. This would add 500 million cubic feet per day to California’s capacity

Good points but California should be using its own natural gas rather than using up yours. Why, because they are so green. 

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On 3/21/2022 at 7:53 PM, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Its almost as if Spring/Fall are good for wind above the tropics... Oh wait, it always has been.  Using an energy source for 6-->9 months out of the year is not exactly good. Its not bad either. Just meh.  Solar can fill in another 2 months during high summer(assuming one can get 2 day battery backup continent wide in scale(good luck)...)  And vast majority of energy in use is not electricity, so the claim of 23% is absurd.  Leaves winter when demand is highest and energy generation is lowest during continent wide winter high pressure systems.    It is doable in Windy Europe.  In fact, it is possible in Windy USA as well. Parts of Mongolia, Kazakstan, Australia, S. Africa, and Argentina can work as well, if one goes by "works" with 2 days of battery backup + 9 months a year.  The massive problem is that other 2-->3 months of the year in nearly every zone.  You had better have vast NG storage or coal or a new type of nuclear reactor(my actual solution which makes far more sense combined with NG)

PS: Do not forget EU/USA/Australia have effectively de industrialized, so in reality, energy usage should be much higher.

PPS: If one really is going to go all in on wind etc, I sure would love people to stop being hypocrites and start making their own solar panels and all the other components for wind instead of bringing them in from China and pretending they are "green" without tariffs/taxing said components. 

Don't know where you are exactly, but winter is the windiest season in the great plains and southwestern US.  IF there is a 'calm' season it tends to be summer nights. 

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38 minutes ago, Eric Gagen said:

Don't know where you are exactly, but winter is the windiest season in the great plains and southwestern US.  IF there is a 'calm' season it tends to be summer nights. 

Yup, agree with ya on this....but don't forget to factor in "climate change" in 5 years winds may be differant? 

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17 hours ago, Ron Wagner said:

Good points but California should be using its own natural gas rather than using up yours. Why, because they are so green. 

They are Ron. 40% of California usage is local production.  The Kern  County and most of  the rest of southern California oil has to be heated to produce.  Forty Years of Steam Injection(now sixty )in California - The Evolution of Heat Management https://www.emerson.com/documents/automation/case-study-oil-production-company-reduces-steam-injection-costs-increases-production-rosemount-en-87610.pdf

Tenneco Oil was the leader in steam drive oil recovery installing the first cogeneration plants in 1960 in Kern County  Bakersfield. All units used casing head gas. Building codes in LA county means you never see the pumpjacks or well head facilities.

New StoryMap: Urban Oil and Gas Production in Los Angeles County

http://www.drillingedge.com/california/los-angeles-county

https://envhealthcenters.usc.edu/2019/08/urban-oil-and-gas-production-in-lacounty.html

My point above is that somethings have been there so long  people don't remember. Other times it happens somewhere other than their front yards so they don't know anything about it.  The only reason I know is I worked for Tenneco Oil in the 1970's when they were the largest oil producer in the state.  At that time California was the third largest oil producer in the Lower 48.  About the same as the North Slope and Kenai fields in Alaska. Texas was #1, Louisiana #2 and more than  New Mexico or Oklahoma. PDF on how efficiency has improved.  https://www.emerson.com/documents/automation/case-study-oil-production-company-reduces-steam-injection-costs-increases-production-rosemount-en-87610.pdf

The above is why El Paso NG has 340,000 mmbtu of surplus delivery at Toprock.

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(edited)

6 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

Don't know where you are exactly, but winter is the windiest season in the great plains and southwestern US.  IF there is a 'calm' season it tends to be summer nights. 

Averages is not reality and why the topic of a winter HIGH system is relevant across NA, EU, ASIA.  There is no wind/solar during said system after it sets in.  It also ushers in the coldest temperatures and highest heating load requirements.  Can last weeks.  Look no further than the winter high system which knocked out the Texas Grid which was on the edge of said winter high at the time.  Pull up data from wind farm in area from last year and then compare it to a wind farm in Iowa or Minnesota.  None of them were producing much if any power for weeks. 

Yes, summer is worse, but one has consistent solar during summer and why it is not a big problem, unless of course you put up massive numbers of wind turbines in the vain hope that is all you need.  One needs several multiples of capacity is the big takeaway and you still need massive stored power backup good for a week or two in ideal conditions. 

And no, the windiest season is not winter, rather fall/spring by a wide margin across the great plains.  Open any wind rose.  Winter is average.  Has big storms(have to shut down wind turbines) which even out the large lulls.

Edited by footeab@yahoo.com

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On 3/27/2022 at 9:12 PM, nsdp said:

They are Ron. 40% of California usage is local production.  The Kern  County and most of  the rest of southern California oil has to be heated to produce.  Forty Years of Steam Injection(now sixty )in California - The Evolution of Heat Management https://www.emerson.com/documents/automation/case-study-oil-production-company-reduces-steam-injection-costs-increases-production-rosemount-en-87610.pdf

Tenneco Oil was the leader in steam drive oil recovery installing the first cogeneration plants in 1960 in Kern County  Bakersfield. All units used casing head gas. Building codes in LA county means you never see the pumpjacks or well head facilities.

My point above is that somethings have been there so long  people don't remember. Other times it happens somewhere other than their front yards so they don't know anything about it.  The only reason I know is I worked for Tenneco Oil in the 1970's when they were the largest oil producer in the state.  At that time California was the third largest oil producer in the Lower 48.  About the same as the North Slope and Kenai fields in Alaska. Texas was #1, Louisiana #2 and more than  New Mexico or Oklahoma. PDF on how efficiency has improved.  https://www.emerson.com/documents/automation/case-study-oil-production-company-reduces-steam-injection-costs-increases-production-rosemount-en-87610.pdf

The above is why El Paso NG has 340,000 mmbtu of surplus delivery at Toprock.

I beg to differ, I visit California often and lived in Bakersfield for many years. They still have some pump jacks (donkeys). I have even seen them in Baldwin Hills. I will try to get some pictures if I see any more. My memory goes all the way back to wooden derricks on the coast near Signal Hill and walking on pieces of tar at the beach. 

I had a big derrick go up within a couple of hundred yards of my house! I remember the trucks driving around with their sonar before the drilling. Of course we had no mineral rights. We had a small flare tower within a few miles also. They had to give us free cleanups one time due to spots of tar on a lot of cars around the area.

We have "donkeys' near me in central Illinois, and some minor production. 

I grew up right near the Inglewood oilfield and lived in Inglewood. https://www.gettyimages.com/photos/inglewood-oil-field

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On 3/21/2022 at 8:53 PM, nsdp said:

Never heard of Kern River Pipeline I guess or the El Paso NG Southern  or San Juan expansions.  As for crude oil/gasoline, lack of knowledge about blending requirements.   Ethanol has to be brought in by rail from Iowa. That is expeensive.

Sam Cooke described you perfectly because you:

Don´t know much about history
Don´t know much biology
Don´t know much about science books

or a 20+year drought in the Colorado River Basin  causing hydro to  vanish.

Hydro doesn't work well in droughts, so not always reliable. Natural gas is available at all times and almost every area of the world. If it is not there is biogas if there are people. 

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17 hours ago, Ron Wagner said:

Hydro doesn't work well in droughts, so not always reliable. Natural gas is available at all times and almost every area of the world. If it is not there is biogas if there are people. 

Ron only combustion turbines are there.  Combined cycle use  uses water to capture exhaust energy for the steam turbine which evaporates water.   That requires a cooling tower Public service New Mexico tried a dry tower on San Juan 4 which had reliability problems. 

You are correct about pumped hydro.  Denver gets water at Silverthorne Co. using the MT Elbert Pumped Hydro over the Continental Divide.  Unless there is a 30 ft snow fall between now and April 30 there will no hydro or water for Denver to use. Oroville Dam in CA is only 34% full/   As these dams head toward dean pool, they lose lose 6mw for every 1 ft the lake drops.  On Hoover Dam they are loosing 1000 mw per hour at the 1035 foot level.

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7 hours ago, nsdp said:

Ron only combustion turbines are there.  Combined cycle use  uses water to capture exhaust energy for the steam turbine which evaporates water.   That requires a cooling tower Public service New Mexico tried a dry tower on San Juan 4 which had reliability problems. 

You are correct about pumped hydro.  Denver gets water at Silverthorne Co. using the MT Elbert Pumped Hydro over the Continental Divide.  Unless there is a 30 ft snow fall between now and April 30 there will no hydro or water for Denver to use. Oroville Dam in CA is only 34% full/   As these dams head toward dean pool, they lose lose 6mw for every 1 ft the lake drops.  On Hoover Dam they are loosing 1000 mw per hour at the 1035 foot level.

How much of that electricity at Hoover Dam goes to Las Vegas? Wondering what will replace it. 

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On 3/20/2022 at 6:25 AM, Jay McKinsey said:

It takes time to build enough renewables to satisfy demand and storage at scale is just entering the market. Storage makes renewables reliable. Fossil fuels will continue to play a backup role until they aren't needed. 

 

On 3/31/2022 at 11:08 AM, Ron Wagner said:

Hydro doesn't work well in droughts, so not always reliable. Natural gas is available at all times and almost every area of the world. If it is not there is biogas if there are people. 

Someone gave an alternative perspective as feedback over issue on energy crisis somewhere.  Share it here (edited) for your reference.  Hope these info are useful to assure everyone that instead of out-competing one over another, they could most likely co-exist….

First of all, the general perspective over the average percentage of each energy sector is probably as below:

a) hydroelectricity (30% to 90%, median point of the world 50% to 70%), countries where the main source of fresh water is probably cactus might not have been counted in.

b) fossil fuel e.g. coal, petroleum and its derivatives, petroleum gas, etc (10% to 30%)

c) Others e.g. renewable solar, wind, non renewable nuclear etc (10% to 20% or less)

 

Second, the insecurity considered is probably based on the news that fossil fuel would be running out soon and it is popularly believed to be the major culprit of climate change.

 

From the percentage provided above, it might be obvious that countries with water catchment areas that bestow hydropower should keep their forest, water and power. Countries without, should start to think about ways to create their own water catchment areas in their own countries. For your information, most countries in the world might have 0% to less than 30% of forest remaining. The later action will not only ease off the uneasy feeling, but will drastically improve issues related to climate and water shortage drastically.

 

Solar and wind are good choices considering they are abundant and free. However, seasonal change, climate change, topological change would affect the effectiveness of these energy mentioned. For examples, no sun due to geological limitation, no wind due to climate change, too much development created too much dust that clouds the solar panels and still the wind often etc. The efficiency in some temperate countries is as low as 10% to 20%. Unless these perspectives are widely acknowledged, the push to make them mainstream could create more unsettling issues later.

image.png.ae74ee5d37f0d9a9f4042d2884529791.png

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On 3/23/2022 at 12:48 AM, Robert Ziegler said:

OK, wind supplied 1/5th of electricity..... Which is not even 1/5th of all energy..... 1/5th of 1/5th is..... 1/25.... For well over a trillion Euro (for which all of Europe could have received 100% emission-free nuclear power, with excess). There is no bigger malinvestment in energy history than these collection systems for diffuse intermittent energy that go under "wind and solar".

although i generally agree that some solar and some wind energy investments, particularly in temperate region and beyond, where there are periods when the sun does not shine and the wind does not blow, the biggest malinvestment, would also like to be fair to something I have a preference of.... i.e. old wind mill of Netherlands........

image.png.ae6cc7ae0d09f5d8b6da0bf883787517.png

based on this old draft, we could notice the wisdom of old generation easily i.e.

1. it's a double generator, combining energy from flowing water or stream, and from wind

2. the design of blades...... used to be large enough to catch the wind.

3. the location, often near the water where cycle of wind ( hot air rises replaced by colder air from water bodies, forested areas, etc) was obvious

 

not trying to be judgemental over modern inventions, but the choice of design and some of the locations could be slightly off...... to the point of unyielding as desired.

Hope the remaining old engineers would be free enough to have collections of everything used to be deemed old and out dated somewhere.............. They seem irreplaceable yet so far.....

 

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