How Far Have We Really Gotten With Alternative Energy

[notsonice + 1,062]

On 4/12/2022 at 4:56 PM, Eric Gagen said:

It's already happening MUCH faster than that.  Even a simple straight line extrapolation from current trends indicates that we will be 90%  there by 2050 or so.  Why do you think technology and development will slow down so much in the next 30 years compared to the last 30?

 

IMHO it isn't 'stupid or arrogrant' to forecast it any longer, because the time horizon is short enough to make it reasonable to extrapolate.  In 2000 I might have agreed with you, but a lot has happened since then. 

Peak oil.......are we there now ?????is oil demand going to go up by 10 percent before diving??????? We all can see peak oil happening in our lifetimes if not in the next decade or it is already happening......................

 

One thing is for sure

Renewable developement/installations/production  worldwide is accelerating and EV's/hybrids production/sales is doubling each year now and this is  laying the ground work for a fall in demand for Coal ...Oil and Nat gas

Peak Coal has happened

Peak Oil is happening

and Finally Peak Nat Gas will happen in my lifetime

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,537]

Renewable Energy Prices Soar 30%

At a recent industry event, wind power developers complained that they are having to shrink their business amid an increasingly unfavorable business environment.

“The state of the supply chain is ultimately unhealthy right now,” said the chief executive of onshore wind at GE, Sheri Hickok. “It is unhealthy because we have an inflationary market that is beyond what anybody anticipated even last year. Steel is going up three times. It is really ridiculous to think how we can sustain a supply chain in a growing industry with these kind of pressures,” she added.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Renewable-Energy-Prices-Soar-30.html

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

Germany’s bold and ambitious 100% renewable power plan

Solar panels in a field in Offingen, Germany. Photo by Andreas Gücklhorn on Unsplash.

 

 

Germany’s plans to transform its power sector to 100% renewable energy system (RES) by 2035 adopted last week are a clear signal that Europe is reinforcing its plans to move beyond coal this decade to now eliminate gas too.

The plans, adopted in cabinet last week, show Germany will reach up to 115 GW of onshore wind by 2030 (over double the amount running at present), 30 GW of offshore wind and 215 GW of solar PV (both four times more than today). Power suppliers will have an obligation to reduce energy bills for consumers after scrapping the levy for renewables on the power price in July. It also means Germany will complete its coal phase out by 2030.  

Edited April 14, 2022 by Jay McKinsey

[notsonice + 1,062]

Just now, Jay McKinsey said:

Germany’s bold and ambitious 100% renewable power plan

Solar panels in a field in Offingen, Germany. Photo by Andreas Gücklhorn on Unsplash.

 

 

Germany’s plans to transform its power sector to 100% renewable energy system (RES) by 2035 adopted last week are a clear signal that Europe is reinforcing its plans to move beyond coal this decade to now eliminate gas too.

100 percent renewable by 2035....in 13 years???. my my looks like this is right around the corner. Ecochump are you paying attention???

 

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,537]

10 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Germany’s bold and ambitious 100% renewable power plan

Help a guy out here Jay...It's a age thing. 

https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/germany-boosts-renewables-biggest-energy-policy-reform-decades

Germany boosts renewables with “biggest energy policy reform in decades”

Verses.....

 

Germany’s bold and ambitious 100% renewable power plan

 

In the “biggest energy policy reform in decades,” the coalition of Social Democrats (SPD), Greens and Free Democrats (FDP) proposes to lift the rollout of wind and solar power “to a completely new level” in a draft law amounting to more than 500 pages. It aims to free up new land for green power production, speed up permit procedures, and massively increase wind and solar additions to achieve a nearly 100-percent renewable power supply by 2035. The energy industry welcomed the package as a good starting point for the necessary faster roll-out of wind and solar energy in Germany. [UPDATE add reactions from industry]

 

Edited April 14, 2022 by Eyes Wide Open

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

13 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Help a guy out here Jay...It's a age thing. 

https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/germany-boosts-renewables-biggest-energy-policy-reform-decades

Germany boosts renewables with “biggest energy policy reform in decades”

Verses.....

 

Germany’s bold and ambitious 100% renewable power plan

 

I don't see a difference.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,537]

1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

I don't see a difference.

I must admit I bit down on that headline just for a moment, after all the EU has jeopardized a entire continent with green energy and placed the world on the doorstep of WW3. Insanity has been defined many times as repeating the same mistakes over and over.

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.” That witticism—I'll call it “Einstein Insanity”—is usually attributed to Albert Einstein.

There is a very small paragraph that defines or illuminates the source of such insanity...Carry on Jay 

In the “biggest energy policy reform in decades,” the coalition of Social Democrats (SPD), Greens and Free Democrats (FDP) proposes to lift the rollout of wind and solar power “to a completely new level” in a draft law 

 

Edited April 14, 2022 by Eyes Wide Open

[Ron Wagner + 642]

On 4/10/2022 at 7:53 AM, Eric Gagen said:

They can’t fill it with coal to any meaningful degree - the plants have been torn down.  The plants which are left will of course run at higher capacity, but the ability for Europe to dramatically increase its usage of coal to generate electricity isn’t there.

That reminds me of the negative comments that I heard about keeping coal plants operable as back ups for our own uses, and natural gas plants as well. A lot of natural gas plants were given new leases on life as were nuclear plants around the country. Some were just political gravy trains though. That was here in Illinois nuclear plants. Europe did not have any foresight due to green pressure and believing in Russia. 

[Ron Wagner + 642]

On 4/12/2022 at 2:17 AM, Boat said:

Dosent it seem weird so many are worried about intermittency when it appears skilled engineers have already cracked the code for a pretty high percentage of renewables. Iowa is interesting because batteries and solar are not big players. I say it seems financially prudent to add more renewables. Nat gas shows even when the US is independant from the rest of the world we still get world market prices. That puts them out of the long term market in my view. Nat gas pricing is not reliable enough. Putin through nat gas will send the world into recession. At today’s FF prices an electric economy seems the most reasonable solution. 

You may be right but natural gas prices may drop a lot lower than they are right now. Do your projections include current and future prices for new wind turbines, installations, and related electrical transmission lines needed? Do they rely on subsidies? 

A big factor hindering fossil fuels right now is Biden being President. He is pretending to make some changes but is also making new roadblocks through taxation etc. 

The other big factor is the left wing influence on government union's holdings in investment companies. 

Another factor is what happens in November. 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

47 minutes ago, Ron Wagner said:

You may be right but natural gas prices may drop a lot lower than they are right now. Do your projections include current and future prices for new wind turbines, installations, and related electrical transmission lines needed? Do they rely on subsidies? 

A big factor hindering fossil fuels right now is Biden being President. He is pretending to make some changes but is also making new roadblocks through taxation etc. 

The other big factor is the left wing influence on government union's holdings in investment companies. 

Another factor is what happens in November. 

Natural gas price is going up, not down. 

You seem to be upset that some of the fossil fuel subsidies are being rolled back through elimination of tax breaks and proper fees for using public land.

ESG is called the free market in action.

[Ron Wagner + 642]

17 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Natural gas price is going up, not down. 

You seem to be upset that some of the fossil fuel subsidies are being rolled back through elimination of tax breaks and proper fees for using public land.

ESG is called the free market in action.

ESG is fascism. How did Germany's central planning work out so far? They should have used their own oil and natural gas resources rather than relying on Russia, while also building renewables. 

Edited April 18, 2022 by Ron Wagner

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

52 minutes ago, Ron Wagner said:

ESG is fascism. How did Germany's central planning work out so far? They should have used their own oil and natural gas resources rather than relying on Russia, while also building renewables. 

ESG is members of the free market making investment decisions of their own free will. The free market in action. Germany, famously, has no oil or natural gas resources. You are spouting nonsense as usual.

[Ron Wagner + 642]

21 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

ESG is members of the free market making investment decisions of their own free will. The free market in action. Germany, famously, has no oil or natural gas resources. You are spouting nonsense as usual.

https://www.reuters.com/article/germany-shale/german-study-says-domestic-shale-gas-oil-production-possible-idUSL8N15A2SN

You just don't have a clue about anything aside from wind turbines and electric cars. 

German study says domestic shale gas, oil production possible

By Vera Eckert

3 MIN READ

* Authority says fracking and water safety can be reconciled

* Revises shale gas potential, newly estimates shale oil

* Legal uncertainty continues, opposition runs high

FRANKFURT, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Tapping Germany’s shale gas and oil without damaging drinking water is possible, said the author of a federal study on Tuesday, although the size of reserves is slightly smaller than previously estimated.

German lawmakers are debating whether to use the hydraulic fracturing (fracking) technique to extract unconventional mineral resources, with many worrying it could damage Germany’s environment.

Fracking involves pumping water and chemicals at high pressure through drill holes to prise open shale rocks holding gas and oil, a process used in the United States.

 

Conventional resources reside in more porous and permeable rock, allowing easier access.

Geologists at the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) used computer simulations to study what would happen to frack fluids when injected into the bedrock of the North German basin.

“We found that the injected fluids did not move upwards into layers carrying drinking-water,” said Stefan Ladage, lead author of the BGR study, which was published in Germany last week.

Germany’s powerful green lobbies warn against the possible contamination of drinking water through fracking.

The densely populated country is committed to moving to renewable energy. Proponents say that eliminates the need to look beyond existing oil and gas reserves.

But energy companies like ExxonMobil, Basf , Dea and CEP want to develop Germany’s shale resources, arguing this could reduce its dependence on imported energy.

 

The BGR said that between 0.32 trillion and 2.03 trillion cubic metres (cbm) of gas could be extracted in depths below 1,000 metres in northern Germany.

This is slightly less than between 0.7 trillion and 2.3 trillion cbm estimated by BGR in 2012, but outweighs the 0.11 trillion cbm of conventionally available gas.

“Gas production from domestic resources has been falling for 10 years,” Ladage said. “Using shale gas resources in Germany primarily bears the potential of mitigating part of the ongoing decline.”

The process would take decades as it was in its very early stages, he said.

BGR for the first time also estimated Germany’s shale oil resources, at a relatively small 13 to 164 million tonnes. It has 31 million tonnes of conventional oil reserves.

But federal environment Minister Barbara Hendricks said last week she did not see much scope for fracking.

“I don’t think it will be economically rewarding,” she told a conference. (Reporting by Vera Eckert, additional reporting by Caroline Copley; Editing by Katharine Houreld)

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

6 minutes ago, Ron Wagner said:

The process would take decades as it was in its very early stages

So they confirm that there are minuscule oil resources and that it would take decades to access the gas. That is called vaporware.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

9 minutes ago, Ron Wagner said:

Using shale gas resources in Germany primarily bears the potential of mitigating part of the ongoing decline.”

Note how they even say that at best it would only mitigate the decline.

[Ron Wagner + 642]

1 minute ago, Jay McKinsey said:

So they confirm that there are minuscule oil resources and that it would take decades to access the gas. That is called vaporware.

Your comments are vaporware. 

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,537]

Looks like the Green Socialist  Movement is having a really bad start in 2022...

German regional leader ‘colluded with Russians' on Nord Stream 2, leaked documents reveal

Manuela Schwesig, chief minister of the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, is the latest member of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) to come under scrutiny over her ties to the Russian state-backed gas pipeline, which Germany has insisted — both in the build-up to and throughout the conflict in Ukraine — is only a commercial project.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1597624/germany-nord-stream-2-support-leaked-documents-russian-gas-manuela-schwesig-gazprom

Edited April 19, 2022 by Eyes Wide Open

[TailingsPond + 460]

1 hour ago, Ron Wagner said:

You just don't have a clue about anything aside from wind turbines and electric cars.[]

"I don’t think it will be economically rewarding”

 

You are biased towards anything natural gas and trump.

Your own post says this is not worthwhile.

 

Edited April 19, 2022 by TailingsPond

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

5 hours ago, Ron Wagner said:

Your comments are vaporware. 

Seems you realize you made a stupid claim and backed it up with stupid evidence. 

[notsonice + 1,062]

7 hours ago, Ron Wagner said:

https://www.reuters.com/article/germany-shale/german-study-says-domestic-shale-gas-oil-production-possible-idUSL8N15A2SN

You just don't have a clue about anything aside from wind turbines and electric cars. 

German study says domestic shale gas, oil production possible

By Vera Eckert

3 MIN READ

 

* Authority says fracking and water safety can be reconciled

* Revises shale gas potential, newly estimates shale oil

* Legal uncertainty continues, opposition runs high

FRANKFURT, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Tapping Germany’s shale gas and oil without damaging drinking water is possible, said the author of a federal study on Tuesday, although the size of reserves is slightly smaller than previously estimated.

German lawmakers are debating whether to use the hydraulic fracturing (fracking) technique to extract unconventional mineral resources, with many worrying it could damage Germany’s environment.

Fracking involves pumping water and chemicals at high pressure through drill holes to prise open shale rocks holding gas and oil, a process used in the United States.

 

Conventional resources reside in more porous and permeable rock, allowing easier access.

Geologists at the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) used computer simulations to study what would happen to frack fluids when injected into the bedrock of the North German basin.

“We found that the injected fluids did not move upwards into layers carrying drinking-water,” said Stefan Ladage, lead author of the BGR study, which was published in Germany last week.

Germany’s powerful green lobbies warn against the possible contamination of drinking water through fracking.

The densely populated country is committed to moving to renewable energy. Proponents say that eliminates the need to look beyond existing oil and gas reserves.

But energy companies like ExxonMobil, Basf , Dea and CEP want to develop Germany’s shale resources, arguing this could reduce its dependence on imported energy.

 

The BGR said that between 0.32 trillion and 2.03 trillion cubic metres (cbm) of gas could be extracted in depths below 1,000 metres in northern Germany.

This is slightly less than between 0.7 trillion and 2.3 trillion cbm estimated by BGR in 2012, but outweighs the 0.11 trillion cbm of conventionally available gas.

“Gas production from domestic resources has been falling for 10 years,” Ladage said. “Using shale gas resources in Germany primarily bears the potential of mitigating part of the ongoing decline.”

The process would take decades as it was in its very early stages, he said.

BGR for the first time also estimated Germany’s shale oil resources, at a relatively small 13 to 164 million tonnes. It has 31 million tonnes of conventional oil reserves.

But federal environment Minister Barbara Hendricks said last week she did not see much scope for fracking.

“I don’t think it will be economically rewarding,” she told a conference. (Reporting by Vera Eckert, additional reporting by Caroline Copley; Editing by Katharine Houreld)

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

 

 

BGR for the first time also estimated Germany’s shale oil resources, at a relatively small 13 to 164 million tonnes. It has 31 million tonnes of conventional oil reserves.

 

 

Ron, resources are not reserves...........If you have worked on resource calcs and reserve calcs you would know the difference....To post the article thinking that Germany has plentiful amounts of reserves when they do not shows that you really do not understand that Germany really has no real chance of ever supplying itself with even 10 percent of its fossil fuel needs today. 31 million tonnes of reserves is peanuts and resources ....... at a relatively small 13 to 164 million tonnes????? which will never transform into not more than 20 or 30 million tonnes with fracking. 

“I don’t think it will be economically rewarding,” says it all.......

[Ron Wagner + 642]

19 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Seems you realize you made a stupid claim and backed it up with stupid evidence. 

That is what your estimates look like to me. Germany followed the wrong course, they should have gone with natural gas other than just from Russia. That is what I said all along. Whether they had enough on their own land or sea. It should be obvious to anyone that they made a big mistake thinking they could slash nuclear and fossil fuels like they did. You still don't see it though. 

[NickW + 2,714]

On 4/19/2022 at 1:06 AM, Ron Wagner said:

https://www.reuters.com/article/germany-shale/german-study-says-domestic-shale-gas-oil-production-possible-idUSL8N15A2SN

You just don't have a clue about anything aside from wind turbines and electric cars. 

German study says domestic shale gas, oil production possible

By Vera Eckert

3 MIN READ

 

* Authority says fracking and water safety can be reconciled

* Revises shale gas potential, newly estimates shale oil

* Legal uncertainty continues, opposition runs high

FRANKFURT, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Tapping Germany’s shale gas and oil without damaging drinking water is possible, said the author of a federal study on Tuesday, although the size of reserves is slightly smaller than previously estimated.

German lawmakers are debating whether to use the hydraulic fracturing (fracking) technique to extract unconventional mineral resources, with many worrying it could damage Germany’s environment.

Fracking involves pumping water and chemicals at high pressure through drill holes to prise open shale rocks holding gas and oil, a process used in the United States.

 

Conventional resources reside in more porous and permeable rock, allowing easier access.

Geologists at the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) used computer simulations to study what would happen to frack fluids when injected into the bedrock of the North German basin.

“We found that the injected fluids did not move upwards into layers carrying drinking-water,” said Stefan Ladage, lead author of the BGR study, which was published in Germany last week.

Germany’s powerful green lobbies warn against the possible contamination of drinking water through fracking.

The densely populated country is committed to moving to renewable energy. Proponents say that eliminates the need to look beyond existing oil and gas reserves.

But energy companies like ExxonMobil, Basf , Dea and CEP want to develop Germany’s shale resources, arguing this could reduce its dependence on imported energy.

 

The BGR said that between 0.32 trillion and 2.03 trillion cubic metres (cbm) of gas could be extracted in depths below 1,000 metres in northern Germany.

This is slightly less than between 0.7 trillion and 2.3 trillion cbm estimated by BGR in 2012, but outweighs the 0.11 trillion cbm of conventionally available gas.

“Gas production from domestic resources has been falling for 10 years,” Ladage said. “Using shale gas resources in Germany primarily bears the potential of mitigating part of the ongoing decline.”

The process would take decades as it was in its very early stages, he said.

BGR for the first time also estimated Germany’s shale oil resources, at a relatively small 13 to 164 million tonnes. It has 31 million tonnes of conventional oil reserves.

But federal environment Minister Barbara Hendricks said last week she did not see much scope for fracking.

“I don’t think it will be economically rewarding,” she told a conference. (Reporting by Vera Eckert, additional reporting by Caroline Copley; Editing by Katharine Houreld)

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

7 -20 years supply of gas. What then after that? 

[nsdp + 449]

4 hours ago, NickW said:

7 -20 years supply of gas. What then after that? 

Says possible. If I had a nickel for every possibility that turned out to  be a dry hole, I could pay off my mortgage.   Wild cat odds are some where between 1 out of 7 and 1 out of ten.  Germany drilled during WWII and only got a trickle of coal seam gas  which they already recover.

[Ron Wagner + 642]

On 4/19/2022 at 2:35 AM, notsonice said:

 

 

BGR for the first time also estimated Germany’s shale oil resources, at a relatively small 13 to 164 million tonnes. It has 31 million tonnes of conventional oil reserves.

 

 

Ron, resources are not reserves...........If you have worked on resource calcs and reserve calcs you would know the difference....To post the article thinking that Germany has plentiful amounts of reserves when they do not shows that you really do not understand that Germany really has no real chance of ever supplying itself with even 10 percent of its fossil fuel needs today. 31 million tonnes of reserves is peanuts and resources ....... at a relatively small 13 to 164 million tonnes????? which will never transform into not more than 20 or 30 million tonnes with fracking. 

“I don’t think it will be economically rewarding,” says it all.......

I think that the figures I gave you were based on minimal surveys of certain areas rather than a real survey of all of Germany. It was just a quick link grab. I do know that they did relatively nothing compared to what they could have to explore including their coastal waters. 

[Ron Wagner + 642]

33 minutes ago, nsdp said:

Says possible. If I had a nickel for every possibility that turned out to  be a dry hole, I could pay off my mortgage.   Wild cat odds are some where between 1 out of 7 and 1 out of ten.  Germany drilled during WWII and only got a trickle of coal seam gas  which they already recover.

Don't you think that modern technology makes a big difference? The Germans were afraid of minor temblors that occurred.