How Far Have We Really Gotten With Alternative Energy

[Boat + 1,315]

That’s RT humor the west will never understand. Go back to lids of Russian Tanks exploding for entertainment. RT supply chain management may be a few decades stale.

[NickW + 2,714]

On 5/28/2022 at 8:38 PM, Ron Wagner said:

You really have no idea how much natural gas and biogas potential there is. That is even without methane hydrates which are even greater than that on land!

You really have no idea of context (in terms of the discussion)

The comment was  in reference specifically to UK potential non conventional reserves that maybe exploitable within the realms of economic reality.

As a UK citizen I do not want to be wholly  reliant on imports of energy no matter how much is washing around in other climes . Recent events couldn't  reinforce that point any further. While not being against the exploitation of those UK reserves it should be alongside other developments in the UK, primarily build out of wind power and new nuclear. Solar, tidal, biogas, being handy additional extras. 

[Boat + 1,315]

By the end of 2023, about 32,300 megawatts of solar is projected to be on the ERCOT grid (up from less than 4,000 megawatts in 2020.) Put another way, by the end of next year, Texas could have about as much solar capacity as now exists in California, which has about 33,200 megawatts.
 

While the Putin type fossile fuel promoters continue to gripe about renewables the projections the renewable promoters were making 2-3 years ago are happening. Unlike Mongolian coal, lol. In the case of Texas solar installation is going nuts. We’ll pass California by 2024 it looks like. Keep adding the future onslaught of grid batteries and this capacity will seem irrelevant in 5-7 years. No gas or coal needed in the summer. An overbuild in wind and batteries will cut the need for fossile fuels even in the winter. While rednecks furiously tout nat gas they be cheering the last hurrah. Putin is proof you can’t trust supply from rouge nations. The Middle East is still a powder keg. Distributed Renewables will eventually starve those war mongering polluters. Russians had a job fair hoping to hire tank commanders. There was no interest. Do they need new priests promoting the glory of death in the support of the motherland?

[JoMack + 547]

13 hours ago, Boat said:

By the end of 2023, about 32,300 megawatts of solar is projected to be on the ERCOT grid (up from less than 4,000 megawatts in 2020.) Put another way, by the end of next year, Texas could have about as much solar capacity as now exists in California, which has about 33,200 megawatts.
 

While the Putin type fossile fuel promoters continue to gripe about renewables the projections the renewable promoters were making 2-3 years ago are happening. Unlike Mongolian coal, lol. In the case of Texas solar installation is going nuts. We’ll pass California by 2024 it looks like. Keep adding the future onslaught of grid batteries and this capacity will seem irrelevant in 5-7 years. No gas or coal needed in the summer. An overbuild in wind and batteries will cut the need for fossile fuels even in the winter. While rednecks furiously tout nat gas they be cheering the last hurrah. Putin is proof you can’t trust supply from rouge nations. The Middle East is still a powder keg. Distributed Renewables will eventually starve those war mongering polluters. Russians had a job fair hoping to hire tank commanders. There was no interest. Do they need new priests promoting the glory of death in the support of the motherland?

ERCOT is adding more renewables making the Texas grid unreliable.  ERCOT is not setting up maintenance and upgrades as required by the power plants and as it buys more wind and solar, the summer will be a test of ERCOT's continuing place as the purchaser and controller of electricity in Texas.  ERCOT decide how much power Co-Ops deliver or whether to deliver partial power or no power to their customers.

THIS MONTH BY ERCOT:

By just after 5 p.m. Friday, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas announced that six power plants had gone down unexpectedly and asked Texans to turn up their thermostats to 78 degrees for the weekend and avoid using large appliances during the hottest hours of the day to reduce strain on the power grid.

“We had a scheduled major maintenance outage beginning Friday, May 13, but it was cancelled by ERCOT on May 12,” a Calpine spokesperson said in a statement, adding that May is a “shoulder month” during which power generators historically take power plants offline to do repairs and maintenance during cooler weather.

 

But this month has been warmer than most Mays of the past decade, leading to higher electricity demand and causing ERCOT to scramble to keep as many plants operating as possible.

Several other power plants broke down Friday and couldn’t produce electricity after agreeing — at ERCOT’s request — to postpone planned maintenance shutdowns, said Michele Richmond, who represents power plants across the state as executive director of the Texas Competitive Power Advocates.

[JoMack + 547]

On 5/28/2022 at 5:21 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

My scrapbook was done by just typing "power plant fire" into google and limiting the search to the last month.

That battery fire is not Moss Landing. The battery in Moss Landing did not catch on fire. The fire suppression system accidentally went off and damaged the battery. It is located inside the old turbine room of an old natural gas power plant and construction is underway to double the battery in size.

Yes they power the grid because they take excess electricity from one point in time and power the grid when demand increases.

Grid batteries are a raging success. They print money. The first merchant battery just got funding:

Fully merchant battery storage project in California raises US$78m debt financing

Siemens’ international financing arm, US development bank NADBank and energy storage developer EnerSmart Storage have signed a US$78.2 million loan facility to finance a fully merchant battery storage project in California totalling 165MW.

The debt facility from NADBank (North American Development Bank) and Siemens Financial Services will finance the design, construction and operation of a portfolio of utility-scale energy storage projects totalling 165MW/330MWh at nine sites in San Diego county. EnerSmart Storage is the developer, owner and operator of the projects, which are in the service territory of utility SDG&E.

The deal is thought to be the first reported project debt financing of fully merchant battery energy storage system (BESS) projects in the US, which means the BESS project does not have any long-term resource adequacy agreements with utilities in place, yet. The press release did say that the projects may provide energy through resource adequacy agreements in the future.

 

 

So, tell me again Jay that Moss Landing is not having problems?

 

The world’s largest lithium ion battery is down, again

The Moss Landing Energy Storage Facility Phase II set off fire alarms that activated a fault water suppression system, which – again – set off a cascading set of events that resulted in roughly ten battery packs melting down.

FEBRUARY 16, 2022 JOHN FITZGERALD WEAVER

Sunday night, February 13th, the Vistra Energy Moss Landing Energy Storage Facility Phase II set off fire alarms just after 8 p.m. Pacific Standard Time. Upon arrival, the local fire department found roughly ten battery racks that were completely melted. The fire department representatives said that the fire was extinguished.

…

Vistra has suggested that the event might be a similar event to the September incident that took down Phase I of the facility. According to a statement from Vistra, that incident involved a cascading series of events which may have started with the failure of a ball bearing in a fan.

The suspected bearing failure is presumed to have set off the very early smoke detection apparatus (VESDA), which in turn armed the heat suppression system. Vistra stated that due to ‘failures of a small number of couplings on flexible hoses and pipes’, water sprayed directly onto additional battery racks, causing short circuiting and arcing, which damaged the batteries and made more smoke. The additional smoke set off more alarms and caused even more water to spray from the failed couplings.

…

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,131]

2 hours ago, JoMack said:

So, tell me again Jay that Moss Landing is not having problems?

 

The world’s largest lithium ion battery is down, again

The Moss Landing Energy Storage Facility Phase II set off fire alarms that activated a fault water suppression system, which – again – set off a cascading set of events that resulted in roughly ten battery packs melting down.

FEBRUARY 16, 2022 JOHN FITZGERALD WEAVER

Sunday night, February 13th, the Vistra Energy Moss Landing Energy Storage Facility Phase II set off fire alarms just after 8 p.m. Pacific Standard Time. Upon arrival, the local fire department found roughly ten battery racks that were completely melted. The fire department representatives said that the fire was extinguished.

…

Vistra has suggested that the event might be a similar event to the September incident that took down Phase I of the facility. According to a statement from Vistra, that incident involved a cascading series of events which may have started with the failure of a ball bearing in a fan.

The suspected bearing failure is presumed to have set off the very early smoke detection apparatus (VESDA), which in turn armed the heat suppression system. Vistra stated that due to ‘failures of a small number of couplings on flexible hoses and pipes’, water sprayed directly onto additional battery racks, causing short circuiting and arcing, which damaged the batteries and made more smoke. The additional smoke set off more alarms and caused even more water to spray from the failed couplings.

…

TLDR: Dumb ass wet behind the ears naive engineers who can't tie their shoes designed battery packs without FMA.   Need to go back to school and learn basics of engineering. 

[Boat + 1,315]

2 hours ago, JoMack said:

ERCOT is adding more renewables making the Texas grid unreliable.  ERCOT is not setting up maintenance and upgrades as required by the power plants and as it buys more wind and solar, the summer will be a test of ERCOT's continuing place as the purchaser and controller of electricity in Texas.  ERCOT decide how much power Co-Ops deliver or whether to deliver partial power or no power to their customers.

THIS MONTH BY ERCOT:

By just after 5 p.m. Friday, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas announced that six power plants had gone down unexpectedly and asked Texans to turn up their thermostats to 78 degrees for the weekend and avoid using large appliances during the hottest hours of the day to reduce strain on the power grid.

“We had a scheduled major maintenance outage beginning Friday, May 13, but it was cancelled by ERCOT on May 12,” a Calpine spokesperson said in a statement, adding that May is a “shoulder month” during which power generators historically take power plants offline to do repairs and maintenance during cooler weather.

 

But this month has been warmer than most Mays of the past decade, leading to higher electricity demand and causing ERCOT to scramble to keep as many plants operating as possible.

Several other power plants broke down Friday and couldn’t produce electricity after agreeing — at ERCOT’s request — to postpone planned maintenance shutdowns, said Michele Richmond, who represents power plants across the state as executive director of the Texas Competitive Power Advocates.

That solar is just now being added. All the problems to the Texas grid were primarily gas and coal. Adding renewables and Democrats might be what it finally takes to break the corruption cycle. 
ps, don’t hire the battery boys from California.

Edited May 31, 2022 by Boat

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

On 5/27/2022 at 2:36 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

But it satisfies his needs well 99% of the time. To offset that 1% he can consider how he doesn't have to go to a gas station on a weekly basis, he just wakes up with a full car every morning.

There is currently only one size of Tesla LFP battery, no extended range versions.

Jay, if it made any sense to drive an EV, you would be driving one now.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

4 hours ago, JoMack said:

So, tell me again Jay that Moss Landing is not having problems?

 

The world’s largest lithium ion battery is down, again

The Moss Landing Energy Storage Facility Phase II set off fire alarms that activated a fault water suppression system, which – again – set off a cascading set of events that resulted in roughly ten battery packs melting down.

FEBRUARY 16, 2022 JOHN FITZGERALD WEAVER

Sunday night, February 13th, the Vistra Energy Moss Landing Energy Storage Facility Phase II set off fire alarms just after 8 p.m. Pacific Standard Time. Upon arrival, the local fire department found roughly ten battery racks that were completely melted. The fire department representatives said that the fire was extinguished.

…

Vistra has suggested that the event might be a similar event to the September incident that took down Phase I of the facility. According to a statement from Vistra, that incident involved a cascading series of events which may have started with the failure of a ball bearing in a fan.

The suspected bearing failure is presumed to have set off the very early smoke detection apparatus (VESDA), which in turn armed the heat suppression system. Vistra stated that due to ‘failures of a small number of couplings on flexible hoses and pipes’, water sprayed directly onto additional battery racks, causing short circuiting and arcing, which damaged the batteries and made more smoke. The additional smoke set off more alarms and caused even more water to spray from the failed couplings.

…

And how many gas and coal plants shutdown in Texas? Tell me again that fossil plants aren't having problems. 

Moss Landing actually has two batteries. The Vistra battery fire suppression system is having problems but that isn't slowing them down from doubling the size of the battery. The Tesla battery at Moss Landing is working just fine.

[JoMack + 547]

19 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

And how many gas and coal plants shutdown in Texas? Tell me again that fossil plants aren't having problems. 

Moss Landing actually has two batteries. The Vistra battery fire suppression system is having problems but that isn't slowing them down from doubling the size of the battery. The Tesla battery at Moss Landing is working just fine.

Landmass and instability - Austrailia's battery facilities and California are proving to be a less than a solution to the 100% baseload needed.  As far as gas, and coal plants, they are being closed, not due to end of life but lack of support by the Build Back Bullcrap by Biden and the powerful renewable energy organizations feeding off the taxpayers backs that have a pressure campaign backed by trillions in subsidies and tax credits and tax allowance at zero percentage.  Battery storage for baseload is expensive, unreliable and unstable. 

The $2.5 trillion reason we can’t rely on batteries to clean up the grid

 

Fluctuating solar and wind power require lots of energy storage, and lithium-ion batteries seem lik the obvious choice—but they are far too expensive to play a major role.ByIf state regulators sign off, however, it could be the site of the world’s largest lithium-ion battery project by late 2020, helping to balance fluctuating wind and solar energy on the California grid.

The 300-megawatt facility is one of four giant lithium-ion storage projects that Pacific Gas and Electric, California’s largest utility, asked the California Public Utilities Commission to approve in late June. Collectively, they would add enough storage capacity to the grid to supply about 2,700 homes for a month (or to store about .0009 percent of the electricity the state uses each year).The California projects are among a growing number of efforts around the world, including Tesla’s 100-megawatt battery array in South Australia, to build ever larger lithium-ion storage systems as prices decline and renewable generation increases. They’re fueling growing optimism that these giant batteries will allow wind and solar power to displace a growing share of fossil-fuel plants.But there’s a problem with this rosy scenario. These batteries are far too expensive and don’t last nearly long enough, limiting the role they can play on the grid, experts say. If we plan to rely on them for massive amounts of storage as more renewables come online—rather than turning to a broader mix of low-carbon sources like nuclear and natural gas with carbon capturetechnology—we could be headed down a dangerously unaffordable path.

Small doses

 

Today’s battery storage technology works best in a limited role, as a substitute for “peaking” power plants, according to a 2016 analysis by researchers at MIT and Argonne National Lab. These are smaller facilities, frequently fueled by natural gas today, that can afford to operate infrequently, firing up quickly when prices and demand are high.

Lithium-ion batteries could compete economically with these natural-gas peakers within the next five years, says Marco Ferrara, a cofounder of Form Energy, an MIT spinout developing grid storage batteries.

“The gas peaker business is pretty close to ending, and lithium-ion is a great replacement,” he says.

This peaker role is precisely the one that most of the new and forthcoming lithium-ion battery projects are designed to fill. Indeed, the California storage projects could eventually replace three natural-gas facilities in the region, two of which are peaker plants.

But much beyond this role, batteries run into real problems. The authors of the 2016 study found steeply diminishing returns when a lot of battery storage is added to the grid. They concluded that coupling battery storage with renewable plants is a “weak substitute” for large, flexible coal or natural-gas combined-cycle plants, the type that can be tapped at any time, run continuously, and vary output levels to meet shifting demand throughout the day.

Not only is lithium-ion technology too expensive for this role, but limited battery life means it’s not well suited to filling gaps during the days, weeks, and even months when wind and solar generation flags.

This problem is particularly acute in California, where both wind and solar fall off precipitously during the fall and winter months. 

This leads to a critical problem: when renewables reach high levels on the grid, you need far, far more wind and solar plants to crank out enough excess power during peak times to keep the grid operating through those long seasonal dips, says Jesse Jenkins, a coauthor of the study and an energy systems researcher. That, in turn, requires banks upon banks of batteries that can store it all away until it’s needed.

 

 

 

 

Edited June 1, 2022 by JoMack

[Ron Wagner + 643]

On 5/30/2022 at 6:59 AM, NickW said:

You really have no idea of context (in terms of the discussion)

The comment was  in reference specifically to UK potential non conventional reserves that maybe exploitable within the realms of economic reality.

As a UK citizen I do not want to be wholly  reliant on imports of energy no matter how much is washing around in other climes . Recent events couldn't  reinforce that point any further. While not being against the exploitation of those UK reserves it should be alongside other developments in the UK, primarily build out of wind power and new nuclear. Solar, tidal, biogas, being handy additional extras. 

I agree with your logic but you need to use what is available at present not in the future. That is true for all areas of the world. Of course you can go all out on future projects simultaneously. This summer will be a challenge in America due to our use of air conditioning. That is due to increased reliance on our own wind and solar. I doubt you need much air conditioning in Great Britain. 

[notsonice + 1,068]

On 5/28/2022 at 1:46 PM, Ron Wagner said:

Lets us know what the real selling price and availability is for the future vehicles. I tried to buy a hybrid Maverick pickup and was told I could not place an order at the time. I hope you are right but caution anyone in the market to add up the real prices and pros and cons. Electricity prices are going up and it is not free, like a lot of people think. Computer chips are a huge factor also. I have a small, medium and large vehicle. I doubt if we will need a new vehicle at all. I can probably make them last ten more years. They have an average of 50,000 miles on them. One gets 40 mpg. It is the newest. 

 

The Teslas are way overpriced........The price being paid for a Tesla, in my book, is twice what they should be selling for....

$8000 in batteries all in plus the electric motors at $2000, the electronics another $3000 to $4000 and the actual car.... $10,000 ...$25000 is what they are worth............ The price for a used Tesla will plummet and the craze to buy a new one will disappear. 

My bet is Tesla is out of the car business in 5 years as Ford, GM   VW  and BMW...the Japanesse car makers and the South Koreans will take away all of the market Tesla has today in the US.

The new AWD SUVs coming out are priced in the 35,000 to 45000 range  the same as the ICE vehicles today. I am figuring I will get a new EV SUV at a decent price in 2023 to 2024 as they are just starting to come into production in late 2022 and early 2023. 

 

VW is pegging their 2022 SUV  ID.4 today $41,230 MSRP minus the fed and state rebates of $10,000.....$31230..That is a imported one built in Germany. US production is slated later this year early 2023 and should  be lower priced 

 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

7 hours ago, notsonice said:

The Teslas are way overpriced........The price being paid for a Tesla, in my book, is twice what they should be selling for....

$8000 in batteries all in plus the electric motors at $2000, the electronics another $3000 to $4000 and the actual car.... $10,000 ...$25000 is what they are worth............ The price for a used Tesla will plummet and the craze to buy a new one will disappear. 

My bet is Tesla is out of the car business in 5 years as Ford, GM   VW  and BMW...the Japanesse car makers and the South Koreans will take away all of the market Tesla has today in the US.

The new AWD SUVs coming out are priced in the 35,000 to 45000 range  the same as the ICE vehicles today. I am figuring I will get a new EV SUV at a decent price in 2023 to 2024 as they are just starting to come into production in late 2022 and early 2023. 

 

VW is pegging their 2022 SUV  ID.4 today $41,230 MSRP minus the fed and state rebates of $10,000.....$31230..That is a imported one built in Germany. US production is slated later this year early 2023 and should  be lower priced 

 

The Japanese car makers are nowhere with EVs. Toyota is rebadging Chinese BYDs and Honda just signed up for GM to make EVs for them. Let that sink in, Honda will be paying GM to make cars for them. 

Teslas are so over priced because of demand. If demand drops they can easily lower their prices, they are operating at incredible margins. In 5 years Tesla will be one of the largest car makers in the world along with BYD.

 

[Ron Wagner + 643]

12 hours ago, notsonice said:

The Teslas are way overpriced........The price being paid for a Tesla, in my book, is twice what they should be selling for....

$8000 in batteries all in plus the electric motors at $2000, the electronics another $3000 to $4000 and the actual car.... $10,000 ...$25000 is what they are worth............ The price for a used Tesla will plummet and the craze to buy a new one will disappear. 

My bet is Tesla is out of the car business in 5 years as Ford, GM   VW  and BMW...the Japanesse car makers and the South Koreans will take away all of the market Tesla has today in the US.

The new AWD SUVs coming out are priced in the 35,000 to 45000 range  the same as the ICE vehicles today. I am figuring I will get a new EV SUV at a decent price in 2023 to 2024 as they are just starting to come into production in late 2022 and early 2023. 

 

VW is pegging their 2022 SUV  ID.4 today $41,230 MSRP minus the fed and state rebates of $10,000.....$31230..That is a imported one built in Germany. US production is slated later this year early 2023 and should  be lower priced 

 

I like your pricing but will have to wait and see. Inflation is roaring and many people will be holding on to their current vehicles and fixing them. I know I will, but we don't drive to work anymore. We have small 40 mpg, medium 30 mpg and large 12 passenger 15 mpg. The smallest has only a few thousand on it. Safety is my only concern with that one. It costs $15,000 and seats 4 people plus a child (if no passengers have really long legs). Plus we are old. 😉

[Ron Wagner + 643]

On 5/30/2022 at 6:59 AM, NickW said:

You really have no idea of context (in terms of the discussion)

The comment was  in reference specifically to UK potential non conventional reserves that maybe exploitable within the realms of economic reality.

As a UK citizen I do not want to be wholly  reliant on imports of energy no matter how much is washing around in other climes . Recent events couldn't  reinforce that point any further. While not being against the exploitation of those UK reserves it should be alongside other developments in the UK, primarily build out of wind power and new nuclear. Solar, tidal, biogas, being handy additional extras. 

The UK is also investing in the largest North Sea oil and gas development it has ever had. Finally waking up.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

4 minutes ago, Ron Wagner said:

The UK is also investing in the largest North Sea oil and gas development it has ever had. Finally waking up.

Waking up? What a laugh. They are just replacing Russian losses to the global market. Meanwhile they are doing all they can to pursue EVs and renewables.

[Professor ML 0]

On 3/17/2022 at 12:19 AM, Ron Wagner said:

Good question. Why not get a subscription and widen your knowledge base. The WSJ is pretty basic source material for anyone interested in energy and the economy.  There are ways around the restrictions too. 

The Wall Street Journal has a left-wing reportorial corps that slants information in favor of social democratic or RINO views. 

[Boat + 1,315]

On 5/31/2022 at 7:53 AM, JoMack said:

ERCOT is adding more renewables making the Texas grid unreliable.  ERCOT is not setting up maintenance and upgrades as required by the power plants and as it buys more wind and solar, the summer will be a test of ERCOT's continuing place as the purchaser and controller of electricity in Texas.  ERCOT decide how much power Co-Ops deliver or whether to deliver partial power or no power to their customers.

THIS MONTH BY ERCOT:

By just after 5 p.m. Friday, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas announced that six power plants had gone down unexpectedly and asked Texans to turn up their thermostats to 78 degrees for the weekend and avoid using large appliances during the hottest hours of the day to reduce strain on the power grid.

“We had a scheduled major maintenance outage beginning Friday, May 13, but it was cancelled by ERCOT on May 12,” a Calpine spokesperson said in a statement, adding that May is a “shoulder month” during which power generators historically take power plants offline to do repairs and maintenance during cooler weather.

 

But this month has been warmer than most Mays of the past decade, leading to higher electricity demand and causing ERCOT to scramble to keep as many plants operating as possible.

Several other power plants broke down Friday and couldn’t produce electricity after agreeing — at ERCOT’s request — to postpone planned maintenance shutdowns, said Michele Richmond, who represents power plants across the state as executive director of the Texas Competitive Power Advocates.

Your side has been making those claims even though solar did not have much of an imprint. That’s changing so we’ll see. Isn’t there a song. Give solar a chance? See how the power plants break down so much and your solution is more? I would take the Russian money out of the grid. Take foreign money out of refining in the US. Why let them control the market and the news. Your paying $8 for nat gas and feeding multiple pipelines to Mexico. That’s ridiculous. Insanity. You would purposely damage the economy of the worlds most successful continent because of a conflict in Europe. This is poor leadership by humans, period.  

[specinho + 440]

Eerrr………..breaking news................

[NickW + 2,714]

On 6/3/2022 at 2:42 AM, Ron Wagner said:

The UK is also investing in the largest North Sea oil and gas development it has ever had. Finally waking up.

If you are talking about the Shearwater and Jackdaw developments these will produce combined about 6 bn m3 per year or about 8% of UK current consumption. 

A handy addition but I don't know what the timeline is to bring that gas to market. 

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

On 5/28/2022 at 12:57 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

You are the one that apparently thinks we need more CO2 for food production when most of the world's birth rate is below replacement or that the increased CO2 is what is behind our increased food production over the past 50 years. Corn doesn't benefit from the extra CO2 yet production has increased many times thanks to fertilizer and technology. It doesn't matter that population will peak in 30 or 40 years. CO2 won't decrease between now and then, we will just achieve neutrality. 

Wild stuff, Jay. The usual panic line from distraught liberals.

So the only solution to energy problems is to limit population growth? Diminish the birth rate through some weird technological trick? Pathetic defeatism.

Of course we need CO2 to grow crops and feed people and power the O2 sources so the average guy can draw a breath of air into his lungs. I guess none of that matters to the cold minded government managers who desperately promote poorly devised climate models.

We need to revive the public interest in people and human needs.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

11 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Wild stuff, Jay. The usual panic line from distraught liberals.

So the only solution to energy problems is to limit population growth? Diminish the birth rate through some weird technological trick? Pathetic defeatism.

Of course we need CO2 to grow crops and feed people and power the O2 sources so the average guy can draw a breath of air into his lungs. I guess none of that matters to the cold minded government managers who desperately promote poorly devised climate models.

We need to revive the public interest in people and human needs.

You really enjoy showing off your ignorance for all to see. The birth rate is dropping fast and the current predictions are for peak population around 2060. This is happening because people are moving to cities and having fewer children. The weird technological trick is technology itself.

The world population may peak in 2064 at 9.7 billion and then decline to around 8.8 billion by 2100, the University of Washington 

The world is ill-prepared for the global crash in children being born which is set to have a "jaw-dropping" impact on societies, say researchers.

Falling fertility rates mean nearly every country could have shrinking populations by the end of the century.

And 23 nations - including Spain and Japan - are expected to see their populations halve by 2100.

Countries will also age dramatically, with as many people turning 80 as there are being born.

What is going on?

The fertility rate - the average number of children a woman gives birth to - is falling.

If the number falls below approximately 2.1, then the size of the population starts to fall.

 

 

Edited June 6, 2022 by Jay McKinsey

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

China population to shrink for 1st time in 60 yrs: What it means for world

After four decades in which China's population has swelled from 660 million to 1.4 billion, its population is on track to turn down this year, for the first time since the great famine of 1959-1961

According to the latest figures from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, China’s population grew from 1.41212 billion to just 1.41260 billion in 2021 – a record low increase of just 480,000, a mere fraction of the annual growth of eight million or so common a decade ago.

While a reluctance to have children in the face of strict anti-COVID measures might have contributed to the slowdown in births, it has been coming for years.

China’s total fertility rate (births per woman) was 2.6 in the late 1980s – well above the 2.1 needed to replace deaths. It has been between 1.6 and 1.7 since 1994, and slipped to 1.3 in 2020 and just 1.15 in 2021.

Projections prepared by a team at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences have it falling this year – for the first time post-famine – by 0.49 in a thousand.

The turning point has come a decade sooner than expected.

As recently as 2019 the China Academy of Social Sciences expected the population to peak in 2029, at 1.44 billion.

The rapid decline will have a profound impact on China’s economy.

China’s working-age population peaked in 2014 and is projected to shrink to less than one third of that peak by 2100.

https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/china-population-to-shrink-for-1st-time-in-60-yrs-what-it-means-for-world-122053000429_1.html

Edited June 6, 2022 by Jay McKinsey

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

India's fertility rate dips below replacement level: What does it mean?

The govt's efforts to tame the population have started paying off. Indian women are giving birth to fewer children now than in the past. Total fertility rate has fallen below the replacement level now

The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) -- which is the average number of children who would be born to any women in her lifetime – has declined from 2.2 in 2015-16 to 2.0 in 2019-21. It was revealed in the fifth round of the National Family Health Survey, or NFHS-5, conducted over two years starting in 2019. India’s TFR of two is currently below the replacement level of fertility of 2.1 children per woman. https://www.business-standard.com/podcast/current-affairs/india-s-fertility-rate-dips-below-replacement-level-what-does-it-mean-122051800062_1.html

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

To round it off I'll add the USA. China, India and USA together are the three largest countries in the world and account for 40% of the world's population. All are now below replacement rate of 2.1 with China's population actually having peaked.

The fertility rate in the United States, which represents an estimate of the average number of babies a woman will have in her lifetime, also increased slightly in 2021 to 1.66, up from 1.64 in 2020, which was the lowest fertility rate the United States has seen since the government started tracking it in the 1930s.

https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2022/05/24/us-birth-rate

Edited June 6, 2022 by Jay McKinsey