Ron Wagner

How Far Have We Really Gotten With Alternative Energy

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Utilities in Las Vegas is supplied by Nevada Power which is an investor owned utility and therefore not an eligible buyer of hydro from the Western Power Administration or the Bureau of Reclamation. Only publicly owned utilities are  eligible. Largest customer is City of Los Angeles and the munis in Orange and Riverside Counties.  Salt River Authority in Az is another large customer.

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11 hours ago, specinho said:

 

Someone gave an alternative perspective as feedback over issue on energy crisis somewhere.  Share it here (edited) for your reference.  Hope these info are useful to assure everyone that instead of out-competing one over another, they could most likely co-exist….

 

 

First of all, the general perspective over the average percentage of each energy sector is probably as below:

 

a) hydroelectricity (30% to 90%, median point of the world 50% to 70%), countries where the main source of fresh water is probably cactus might not have been counted in.

 

b) fossil fuel e.g. coal, petroleum and its derivatives, petroleum gas, etc (10% to 30%)

 

c) Others e.g. renewable solar, wind, non renewable nuclear etc (10% to 20% or less)

 

 

 

Second, the insecurity considered is probably based on the news that fossil fuel would be running out soon and it is popularly believed to be the major culprit of climate change.

 

 

 

From the percentage provided above, it might be obvious that countries with water catchment areas that bestow hydropower should keep their forest, water and power. Countries without, should start to think about ways to create their own water catchment areas in their own countries. For your information, most countries in the world might have 0% to less than 30% of forest remaining. The later action will not only ease off the uneasy feeling, but will drastically improve issues related to climate and water shortage drastically.

 

 

 

Solar and wind are good choices considering they are abundant and free. However, seasonal change, climate change, topological change would affect the effectiveness of these energy mentioned. For examples, no sun due to geological limitation, no wind due to climate change, too much development created too much dust that clouds the solar panels and still the wind often etc. The efficiency in some temperate countries is as low as 10% to 20%. Unless these perspectives are widely acknowledged, the push to make them mainstream could create more unsettling issues later.

 

 

image.png.ae74ee5d37f0d9a9f4042d2884529791.png

As I have stated before, we need an all of the above approach to the energy problems worldwide. The cleaner the better but affordability is still the most important factor. Just look where the most people live. China and India. Coal is their favorite fuel because it is cheapest. Russia is one of the worst of all polluters in every way including nuclear. It will be providing oil and natural gas to China, our chief competitor and keeping the Russian economy alive. India will also deal with Russia because they have the same needs. If the rest of the world goes for the most expensive forms of power, then Russia and China both win that part of the battle for economic power. We should not deal with China or India if they go whole hog for Russian oil. There are policies that could be acceptable though. Russia, China, and India will not use much in the way of wind, wave, solar or any other green power anytime soon. They will make small shows and big statements. That is all they have ever done for the green dream. 

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15 minutes ago, Ron Wagner said:

As I have stated before, we need an all of the above approach to the energy problems worldwide. The cleaner the better but affordability is still the most important factor. Just look where the most people live. China and India. Coal is their favorite fuel because it is cheapest. Russia is one of the worst of all polluters in every way including nuclear. It will be providing oil and natural gas to China, our chief competitor and keeping the Russian economy alive. India will also deal with Russia because they have the same needs. If the rest of the world goes for the most expensive forms of power, then Russia and China both win that part of the battle for economic power. We should not deal with China or India if they go whole hog for Russian oil. There are policies that could be acceptable though. Russia, China, and India will not use much in the way of wind, wave, solar or any other green power anytime soon. They will make small shows and big statements. That is all they have ever done for the green dream. 

China, ....... will not use much in the way of wind, wave, solar or any other green power anytime soon??????

 

 

last October 2021  –  renewable,........... the percentage of actual power that's generated by renewables closer to 26 percent in China

 

China plans a mammoth 450 GW of wind and solar in its deserts

By Loz Blain
March 07, 2022
 
 

The Gobi desert is already home to vast solar and wind resources, but China has renewable expansion plans totaling nearly half a terawatt in the works

The Gobi desert is already home to vast solar and wind resources, but China has renewable expansion plans totaling nearly half a terawatt in the works
VIEW 1 IMAGES

China already dominates renewable energy production. Its installed capacity of around 895 GW in 2020 was more than the European Union, the USA and Australia combined. And while the world in general is accelerating its transition to renewable power, China is growing its capacity faster than anyone else as well.

Now, according to Reuters, it's got a series of mammoth solar and wind projects in the pipeline that will expand its current capacity by nearly half a terawatt.

 


"China is going to build the biggest scale of solar and wind power generation capacity on the Gobi and desert in history, at 450 GW," said He Lifeng, director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), on the sidelines of the National People's Congress in Beijing on Saturday.

About 100 GW of this new capacity is already under construction, adding to 306 GW of solar capacity and 328 GW of wind capacity that were already installed by the end of 2021. Chinese president Xi Jinping has pledged to get wind and solar capacity over 1.2 terawatts by 2030, as part of the country's plan to see its carbon emissions peak and begin to decline around the same time.

Coal will continue to support China's energy grids for the time being. While some 43.5 percent of the country's total installed capacity – or more than a terawatt by last October – is now renewable, intermittency issues and capacity factors have kept the percentage of actual power that's generated by renewables closer to 26 percent, with most of the rest being coal-fired. Still, this compares favorably to other major economies, and it'll continue to grow steadily as these enormous planned resources come online.

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(edited)

32 minutes ago, notsonice said:

China, ....... will not use much in the way of wind, wave, solar or any other green power anytime soon??????

 

 

last October 2021  –  renewable,........... the percentage of actual power that's generated by renewables closer to 26 percent in China

 

China plans a mammoth 450 GW of wind and solar in its deserts

By Loz Blain
March 07, 2022
 
 

The Gobi desert is already home to vast solar and wind resources, but China has renewable expansion plans totaling nearly half a terawatt in the works

The Gobi desert is already home to vast solar and wind resources, but China has renewable expansion plans totaling nearly half a terawatt in the works
VIEW 1 IMAGES
 

China already dominates renewable energy production. Its installed capacity of around 895 GW in 2020 was more than the European Union, the USA and Australia combined. And while the world in general is accelerating its transition to renewable power, China is growing its capacity faster than anyone else as well.

Now, according to Reuters, it's got a series of mammoth solar and wind projects in the pipeline that will expand its current capacity by nearly half a terawatt.

 


"China is going to build the biggest scale of solar and wind power generation capacity on the Gobi and desert in history, at 450 GW," said He Lifeng, director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), on the sidelines of the National People's Congress in Beijing on Saturday.

About 100 GW of this new capacity is already under construction, adding to 306 GW of solar capacity and 328 GW of wind capacity that were already installed by the end of 2021. Chinese president Xi Jinping has pledged to get wind and solar capacity over 1.2 terawatts by 2030, as part of the country's plan to see its carbon emissions peak and begin to decline around the same time.

Coal will continue to support China's energy grids for the time being. While some 43.5 percent of the country's total installed capacity – or more than a terawatt by last October – is now renewable, intermittency issues and capacity factors have kept the percentage of actual power that's generated by renewables closer to 26 percent, with most of the rest being coal-fired. Still, this compares favorably to other major economies, and it'll continue to grow steadily as these enormous planned resources come online.

Thanks for the information. It was my impression that their wind and solar was mainly being sold for export. When I last checked renewables were a minor part of their energy sources. I will have to do some more study. I am happy to hear of your report. I think everyone should plan on using wind, wave, and solar and any relatively clean source they really need and can afford. 

Here is my reference:

https://www.eia.gov/international/overview/country/CHN

Edited by Ron Wagner
reference

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On 3/21/2022 at 12:57 PM, NickW said:

If you want a good example look at this. Wind alone yesterday supplied 23.5% of Europes (Inc non EU members electricity). If you want to look back you can examine the archive data.

Wind Power Numbers | WindEurope

Impressive but I always prefer to look at total energy use which includes heating, manufacturing, and transportation. Only talking about electricity is not giving the big picture IMHO. I am all for wind, wave, and solar if they are readily available but feel that it will be decades before it is the primary source of energy worldwide. 

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29 minutes ago, Ron Wagner said:

Thanks for the information. It was my impression that their wind and solar was mainly being sold for export. When I last checked renewables were a minor part of their energy sources. I will have to do some more study. I am happy to hear of your report. I think everyone should plan on using wind, wave, and solar and any relatively clean source they really need and can afford. 

Here is my reference:

https://www.eia.gov/international/overview/country/CHN

thanks.....

 

China is no different than any other nation....specifically is it in ones national security interest to produce energy on your own soil  instead of importing energy. If China did not produce electricity with renewables they would have to import more oil coal and nat gas. In the long run China is in the same boat as most countries. Easier to promote renewables ...Cleaner environment .....keeps employing more in the renewable business at home ........cheap source of energy with no need to keep importing fuel.........Do not have to play politics with other nations to secure Oil Nat Gas or Coal...and renewables keep producing when your own domestic supply of fossil fuels gets to expensive or runs out. Look at Europe today........ having to suck up to Putin is no way to go .........Europe in 2030...much more secure with more renewables than it is today......

Wind and solar with battery backup/hydro/pumped storage/hydrogen generation is now economically in the ballbark and competitive with fossil fuels  everywhere in the world.  

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5 hours ago, Ron Wagner said:

Impressive but I always prefer to look at total energy use which includes heating, manufacturing, and transportation. Only talking about electricity is not giving the big picture IMHO. I am all for wind, wave, and solar if they are readily available but feel that it will be decades before it is the primary source of energy worldwide. 

The link specificially states % of electricity produced in Europe. Its sets that context. 20% of Europes electricity from wind is 20% less electricity from Russian gas and coal. 

All energy sources have to start from somewhere. 

When oil started to be exploited coal, firewood, Hydro and windpower (windmills and sail) provided all the worlds energy

Likewise with natural gas. When that started to be exploited coal, oil, firewood, and hydro were the main sources. 

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10 hours ago, notsonice said:

China, ....... will not use much in the way of wind, wave, solar or any other green power anytime soon??????

 

 

last October 2021  –  renewable,........... the percentage of actual power that's generated by renewables closer to 26 percent in China

 

China plans a mammoth 450 GW of wind and solar in its deserts

By Loz Blain
March 07, 2022
 
 

The Gobi desert is already home to vast solar and wind resources, but China has renewable expansion plans totaling nearly half a terawatt in the works

The Gobi desert is already home to vast solar and wind resources, but China has renewable expansion plans totaling nearly half a terawatt in the works
VIEW 1 IMAGES
 

 

 


"

Thats about 750-800 Twh per year. Impressive if it does get delivered. 

Kremlinbots take note - how long can Russia rely on China as a secure outlet for its gas exports as China pursues its own energy independence plan? 

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2 hours ago, NickW said:

Thats about 750-800 Twh per year. Impressive if it does get delivered. 

Kremlinbots take note - how long can Russia rely on China as a secure outlet for its gas exports as China pursues its own energy independence plan? 

Gas?  Will become ever more REQUIRED by China.  Not less.  The more wind/solar the more NG you require.  Unless we pretend batteries are viable even if the cost drops in half again.  Now if someone finds a massive gargantuan find of LIthium that is super cheap to extract.... Ok.  Until then, no. 

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47 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Gas?  Will become ever more REQUIRED by China.  Not less.  The more wind/solar the more NG you require.  Unless we pretend batteries are viable even if the cost drops in half again.  Now if someone finds a massive gargantuan find of LIthium that is super cheap to extract.... Ok.  Until then, no. 

Aren't they also building gargantuan hydro plants? They would suffice to provide the quick response infill although with coal / nuclear baseload. 

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4 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Gas?  Will become ever more REQUIRED by China.  Not less.  The more wind/solar the more NG you require.  Unless we pretend batteries are viable even if the cost drops in half again.  Now if someone finds a massive gargantuan find of LIthium that is super cheap to extract.... Ok.  Until then, no. 

are you living in the 1990's?

China is installing over 100 pumped storage projects for storing power when the wind does not blow.......

More gas????? The future is not more gas.

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14 hours ago, NickW said:

Aren't they also building gargantuan hydro plants? They would suffice to provide the quick response infill although with coal / nuclear baseload. 

They should be building massive hydro storage plants.... They do have the mountains for it... Except if you got off your lazy ass and did a basic load calculation as I have done for you over the last couple years on this very forum regarding the USA/EU power grids several times, you would have to admit due to BASIC MATH, that every single valley would have to be FILLED with hydro dams in the entire damn(pardon the pun couldn't help myself) country accounting for wind/solar's variability. 

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(edited)

On 4/4/2022 at 11:15 PM, NickW said:

Thats about 750-800 Twh per year. Impressive if it does get delivered. 

Kremlinbots take note - how long can Russia rely on China as a secure outlet for its gas exports as China pursues its own energy independence plan? 

if not mistaken, when  US and Russia were provoked to bicker in 201x ( do not recall exactly), US boycotts oil from Russia since then. A war or attack on Russia was nearly initiated by a general of foreign origin but did not receive a go ahead from the then president. A long term contract was signed between China and Russia ~ in 2015. Therefore, might still have  around 25 to 40 years to worry about the independent plan.....

p/s: forgot to mention, this was historical event, not very closely related to any bot, more over kremlinbot...

 

 

Edited by specinho

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7 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

They should be building massive hydro storage plants.... They do have the mountains for it... Except if you got off your lazy ass and did a basic load calculation as I have done for you over the last couple years on this very forum regarding the USA/EU power grids several times, you would have to admit due to BASIC MATH, that every single valley would have to be FILLED with hydro dams in the entire damn(pardon the pun couldn't help myself) country accounting for wind/solar's variability. 

if not mistaken, massive hydropower is not always problem free....

Not too sure if anyone notices a mini-hydropower design that could generate electricity  easily by running water or/and crank by hand (waterlily turbine)?

If this design is good to go (scaled up) for a small patch of community, why must we restrict our thought in the line of big dams for big areas only? The former is likely less damaging or environmental friendly, cheaper, lower risk on unwanted side effects etc compared to big ones.

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On 4/5/2022 at 10:07 AM, footeab@yahoo.com said:

They should be building massive hydro storage plants.... They do have the mountains for it... Except if you got off your lazy ass and did a basic load calculation as I have done for you over the last couple years on this very forum regarding the USA/EU power grids several times, you would have to admit due to BASIC MATH, that every single valley would have to be FILLED with hydro dams in the entire damn(pardon the pun couldn't help myself) country accounting for wind/solar's variability. 

Your wind and solar calculations are complete nonsense. They basically assume that grid operators have absolutely no idea what wind or solar outputs will be in 1 hour, 5 hours, 10 hours, 24 hours time etc 

The variability of wind output to estimates in those 1-10 hour time  frames is less than 5% which means operators can have coal fired plant up and running if needed to support the infill Hydro. 

As not so nice points out there are also building over 100 pump storage plants which will be another significant fast response service to support their grid. 

 

 

 

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Electricity production from difference sources in China (2019)

Solar and wind already more than double from natural gas. 

  •  
  • Coal (incl. coal gangue): 4,553,800 GWh (62.2%)
  •   Natural gas: 232,500 GWh (3.2%)
  •   Other thermal: 147,600 GWh (2.0%)
  •   Nuclear: 348,700 GWh (4.8%)
  •   Hydro (conventional): 1,270,200 GWh (17.3%)
  •   Pumped storage hydro: 31,900 GWh (0.4%)
  •   Wind: 405,300 GWh (5.5%)
  •   Solar: 224,000 GWh (3.1%)
  •   Biomass: 112,600 GWh (1.5%)
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On 4/3/2022 at 11:26 PM, Ron Wagner said:

As I have stated before, we need an all of the above approach to the energy problems worldwide. The cleaner the better but affordability is still the most important factor. Just look where the most people live. China and India. Coal is their favorite fuel because it is cheapest. Russia is one of the worst of all polluters in every way including nuclear. It will be providing oil and natural gas to China, our chief competitor and keeping the Russian economy alive. India will also deal with Russia because they have the same needs. If the rest of the world goes for the most expensive forms of power, then Russia and China both win that part of the battle for economic power. We should not deal with China or India if they go whole hog for Russian oil. There are policies that could be acceptable though. Russia, China, and India will not use much in the way of wind, wave, solar or any other green power anytime soon. They will make small shows and big statements. That is all they have ever done for the green dream. 

Actually Ron we have shown you China has actually installed more renewables than any other country. They just have a huge, larger market. But you spin it how you want. I’m just glad they continue to invest in renewables. 

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2 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

A doctrine of the fossil religion says that electrical generation from gas increases as wind and solar increase. The truth is that it doesn't. This chart shows the rapid growth of wind and solar while gas has remained flat:

image.thumb.png.82467106600b443e0ba42f7ceae68ec6.png

https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/global-electricity-review-2022/

I’m looking at that world coal number. What’s up with the Mongolian coal. Was there a flood or something? Where is the Indian uptick in demand. I guess I need to wait for more charts and some explaining.

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9 hours ago, NickW said:

Your wind and solar calculations are complete nonsense. They basically assume that grid operators have absolutely no idea what wind or solar outputs will be in 1 hour, 5 hours, 10 hours, 24 hours time etc 

The variability of wind output to estimates in those 1-10 hour time  frames is less than 5% which means operators can have coal fired plant up and running if needed to support the infill Hydro. 

As not so nice points out there are also building over 100 pump storage plants which will be another...

You are nonsense, coal is NOT ALLOWED... And coal requires 10-->20+ hours to start let alone come to full capacity. 

For stored pumped hydro to replace coal in China, as YOU are proposing Wind/Solar to do so... which goes to ZERO during winter high storms or even other lulls... would require roughly speaking 1000 cubic kilometers of water dropped 200m over a 24 hour period all before we electrify everything so the ACTUAL total is several times as high. 

That is more water than ALL the dams in the world have water stored. 

Get real. 

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Ain’t it time one of you says we need a Canadian pipeline even though we are energy independent without it. How about we need to drill more natural gas wells to drop prices when we have 1/2 a dozen pipelines delivering US gas to Mexico. Americans, don’t believe the Foreigner. Stop the exports until you get a fair price. Like Putin they care little for your children. 

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3 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

You are nonsense, coal is NOT ALLOWED... And coal requires 10-->20+ hours to start let alone come to full capacity. 

For stored pumped hydro to replace coal in China, as YOU are proposing Wind/Solar to do so... which goes to ZERO during winter high storms or even other lulls... would require roughly speaking 1000 cubic kilometers of water dropped 200m over a 24 hour period all before we electrify everything so the ACTUAL total is several times as high. 

That is more water than ALL the dams in the world have water stored. 

Get real. 

Oh yea, and the most modern dam using modern concrete is ~300m high. 

Get REAL people.  Put down the bong pipes.

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4 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

You are nonsense, coal is NOT ALLOWED... And coal requires 10-->20+ hours to start let alone come to full capacity. 

For stored pumped hydro to replace coal in China, as YOU are proposing Wind/Solar to do so... which goes to ZERO during winter high storms or even other lulls... would require roughly speaking 1000 cubic kilometers of water dropped 200m over a 24 hour period all before we electrify everything so the ACTUAL total is several times as high. 

That is more water than ALL the dams in the world have water stored. 

Get real. 

Only in Texas does it go to zero. There Republicans. Known for mismanagement and corruption. Besides Renewables are growing around 1% per year. That’s easy to cover with batteries. Cut the drama queen theatrics. Hire an engineer. 

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Musk says his part of electric cars is 20 million a year in 8 years. The green revolution needs a couple of decades. Why do you claim it’s todays problem. You got comprehension problems. Putin trainee? Putin has one claim to fame. The worlds most dangerous job used to be Chinese coal mining. Now it’s a Putin Tank driver. 

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Generating capacity by source in China as of 2019[
  •   Coal (incl. coal gangue): 1,040,630 MW (51.8%)
  •   Natural gas: 90,240 MW (4.5%)
  •   Other thermal: 33,340 MW (1.7%)
  •   Nuclear: 48,740 MW (2.4%)
  •   Hydro (conventional): 327,750 MW (16.3%)
  •   Pumped storage hydro: 30,290 MW (1.5%)
  •   Wind: 209,150 MW (10.4%)
  •   Solar: 204,180 MW (10.2%)
  •   Biomass: 23,610 MW (1.2%)

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