Ron Wagner

How Far Have We Really Gotten With Alternative Energy

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13 hours ago, Ron Wagner said:

Aesthetics are, to a degree, an individual taste but in the real world there are many people who want them beyond the horizon and not used in many scenic areas. There are also many other objections such as noise, vibrations, birds being killed, etc. I am not against wind turbines but hope that eventually tide power can take over, since it is has the potential to produce much more power with a smaller and less obtrusive amount of space. 

I lived in Europe and saw most of Western Europe and it is very compact compared to America. We have vast areas of what I would call wasteland as a generalization. Many others would disagree as many Californians actually do. You are aware of the Cape in Massachusetts being foiled because too many rich people opposed it. I live near three wind farms but not close enough to have any personal opinion on them. I do think that the power could be less expensive using the natural gas that is abundant in southern Illinois or adjacent areas. It would also IMHO be less expensive than our old nuclear plants that are being subsidized by the taxpayers and will be enormously expensive over the coming decades when they are retired. The taxpayers pay for the energy and now the subsidies. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cape_Wind

Noise and vibration in an offshore context is completely irrelevant 

Bird kill is minimal and hyped by the anti brigade. 

In UK nuisance / amenity law & caselaw there is no right to a view. 

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7 hours ago, Wombat One said:

Let's just say that there is a 100-strong convoy of coal ships anchored within the Great Barrier Reef waiting to get their load right now. The previous record was 60. So the supply bottlenecks you hear about on the news are very real.

Whats the specific bottleneck at the Aussie end? 

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1 hour ago, Wombat One said:

I disagree Richie. Whilst you are correct that e-vehicles are far too expensive for the average Joe like me at this stage, the Chinese reckon they will soon be selling much cheaper ones here in Australia. Petrol will be approx $2/litre in a few months time (Federal govt has just temorarily halved the fuel excise due to our election), so maybe in 3 years when I need to replace my Suzuki Swift, I will be able to get a cheap electric shopping cart. I have a feeling that petrol will cost $3/litre (about $13/gallon) within 5 years. This is because I believe we are touching on peak oil right now. I know there are great advances in fracking etc, but ultimately, reserves have not been replaced for at least 3 years now. I suspect that only 55% of production is being replaced with new reserves at the moment.

There are plenty of decent EV's / PHEV's for well under $75K equivalent. Richie is just doing the reference TESLA (A premium product on a par with BMW) as the standard example of what you have to get. 

We went to look at the KIA Niro (small end family SUV) and Sportage today. List price on the NIRO EV is £35K and the PHEV £33K. You should be able to negotiate at least 5% off those prices. 

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15 minutes ago, NickW said:

Whats the specific bottleneck at the Aussie end? 

2 factors, both covid-related. The uptick in demand for energy due to the end of lockdowns around the globe has coincided with our new policy of "individual lockdowns". Nobody is wearing masks here anymore but everybody is using RAT (Rapid Antigen Testing) and all "close associates" have to "voluntarily" self-isolate. So 10% of the workforce is isolating at home with whatever family member has covid for 1 week at any time. I recently had to cancel a visit to a friend of mine who is a policeman because his wife had covid. It is affecting every industry. Big queues at the airports over Easter because 10% of the airport staff are at home isolating, same goes with the coal-loading ports etc. Should only last a few months though, given that infection rates are expected to peak soon then start to fall quite rapidly.

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11 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Like a broken record because i keep telling you the truth of reality, not your gibberish.

We have absolutely shown you that they don't have enough oil and gas to make a difference. 2 years of untapped oil and 1.3 years of natural gas with no hydrates.

Synthetic natural gas and oil is super expensive and what Nazi Germany had to rely on you idiot and they lost. But I guess you are too dumb to know that.

 

Sounds like Germany is screwed. And to think they themselves destroyed their own energy  infrastructure strictly for the illusion of Green Energy. 

And now the world has to pay the price for their I'll guided malfeasance? I think not.

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39 minutes ago, NickW said:

Noise and vibration in an offshore context is completely irrelevant 

Bird kill is minimal and hyped by the anti brigade. 

In UK nuisance / amenity law & caselaw there is no right to a view. 

I really think that there are many in the UK that disagree with you and in every other locality. All factors need to be considered IMHO. 

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6 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

It’s not closed versus open mind / it’s knowing how to do physics and read a map.  The geology and hydrologic conditions undersea in the Baltic won’t allow for methane hydrates to form, so they don’t have them, even though a bunch of other places do.  

OK, I agree with that, I interpreted your statement as ruling out methane hydrates as not worth considering as a whole. I know you are brilliant at what you do and know. I appreciate that.

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7 minutes ago, Ron Wagner said:

I really think that there are many in the UK that disagree with you and in every other locality. All factors need to be considered IMHO. 

There is always some opposition just as there is to natural gas developments

However opinion polls invariably show majority support for onshore and offshore wind turbines in the UK 

 

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29 minutes ago, NickW said:

There are plenty of decent EV's / PHEV's for well under $75K equivalent. Richie is just doing the reference TESLA (A premium product on a par with BMW) as the standard example of what you have to get. 

We went to look at the KIA Niro (small end family SUV) and Sportage today. List price on the NIRO EV is £35K and the PHEV £33K. You should be able to negotiate at least 5% off those prices. 

You may be surprised to know that the Aussie dollar is quite weak right now despite the record prices we are receiving for our commodity exports. We have a massive current account surplus but the RBA has signalled that interest rates will not be rising nearly as fast as in the USA. So 33k pounds is about $55k Aussie and it is still possible to get a new Suzuki Jimny for half that price. A proper 4WD that is capable of going almost anywhere but still runs on the smell of an oily rag :)

 

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3 minutes ago, Wombat One said:

You may be surprised to know that the Aussie dollar is quite weak right now despite the record prices we are receiving for our commodity exports. We have a massive current account surplus but the RBA has signalled that interest rates will not be rising nearly as fast as in the USA. So 33k pounds is about $55k Aussie and it is still possible to get a new Suzuki Jimny for half that price. A proper 4WD that is capable of going almost anywhere but still runs on the smell of an oily rag :)

 

Horses for Courses. I wouldn't go EV / PHEV if planning on going for a walkabout. 

At the same point if I were living around Perth again I wouldn't want to be driving around in a farm vehicle (Jimny) 

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2 hours ago, NickW said:

Noise and vibration in an offshore context is completely irrelevant 

 

Not always, whales etc. are disrupted by it.  Mostly by whale tourism boats chasing them, but it is documented that they don't like a lot of noise. 

 

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2 hours ago, Ron Wagner said:

OK, I agree with that, I interpreted your statement as ruling out methane hydrates as not worth considering as a whole. I know you are brilliant at what you do and know. I appreciate that.

not at all - I don't know if methane hydrates will get worked up on a large scale or not (way to early to tell on the technologies and competitive technologies) I just know Germany won't get any without paying to buy it from someone else. 

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(edited)

2 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Sounds like Germany is screwed. And to think they themselves destroyed their own energy  infrastructure strictly for the illusion of Green Energy. 

And now the world has to pay the price for their I'll guided malfeasance? I think not.

They didn't really destroy their energy infrastructure as it was that they ran out of fuel for it.  Up to about 2000 AD or so Germany ran on coal.  Full stop. Nothing else.  A small amount of oil was imported for motor vehicles, and a few other things (nuclear, hydro, natural gas, etc) tinkering on the edges.  Then they ran out of extractable coal, and they had nothing to fall back on.  Compare and contrast with the UK, and France, both of which were in the same boat at one time, and transitioned to something else in a far more organized fashion (UK to domestic natural gas, then domestic wind, France to nuclear power) which has been a huge benefit to them both.  Sure, it's not pleasant for them dealing with this whole mess, but they have options - fallback electric generation plans, rationalized distribution schemes, temporary subsidies for the needy, etc.  Germany is just in trouble, because they don't have enough independently powered generating capacity to make do with the sort of shortfall they are going to have. 

Edited by Eric Gagen
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15 hours ago, RichieRich216 said:

 

at the end of the day if you want a decent EV you’re going to drop at least $75,000. on it. 

 

 

 

or not

image.thumb.png.183678c6e1162c1960dcc3adc017f565.png

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1 hour ago, TailingsPond said:

Not always, whales etc. are disrupted by it.  Mostly by whale tourism boats chasing them, but it is documented that they don't like a lot of noise. 

 

Whales (particularly larger ones) generally don't come into the shallow waters that wind farms are based in.  I don't believe there is much vibration / noise  from the structures. They certainly aren't particularly noisy when you sail though one of the biggest wind farms in the world from first hand experience. 

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3 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

not at all - I don't know if methane hydrates will get worked up on a large scale or not (way to early to tell on the technologies and competitive technologies) I just know Germany won't get any without paying to buy it from someone else. 

 

4 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

They didn't really destroy their energy infrastructure as it was that they ran out of fuel for it.  Up to about 2000 AD or so Germany ran on coal.  Full stop. Nothing else.  A small amount of oil was imported for motor vehicles, and a few other things (nuclear, hydro, natural gas, etc) tinkering on the edges.  Then they ran out of extractable coal, and they had nothing to fall back on.  Compare and contrast with the UK, and France, both of which were in the same boat at one time, and transitioned to something else in a far more organized fashion (UK to domestic natural gas, then domestic wind, France to nuclear power) which has been a huge benefit to them both.  Sure, it's not pleasant for them dealing with this whole mess, but they have options - fallback electric generation plans, rationalized distribution schemes, temporary subsidies for the needy, etc.  Germany is just in trouble, because they don't have enough independently powered generating capacity to make do with the sort of shortfall they are going to have. 

Germany made big mistakes but they can probably afford to out bid any other country for large amounts of oil, gas, renewables etc. At the same time they need to increase their defense spending though. It will be a hardship for several years but well worth energy independence, from Russia,  in the long run. 

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4 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

They didn't really destroy their energy infrastructure as it was that they ran out of fuel for it.  Up to about 2000 AD or so Germany ran on coal.  Full stop. Nothing else.  A small amount of oil was imported for motor vehicles, and a few other things (nuclear, hydro, natural gas, etc) tinkering on the edges.  Then they ran out of extractable coal, and they had nothing to fall back on.  Compare and contrast with the UK, and France, both of which were in the same boat at one time, and transitioned to something else in a far more organized fashion (UK to domestic natural gas, then domestic wind, France to nuclear power) which has been a huge benefit to them both.  Sure, it's not pleasant for them dealing with this whole mess, but they have options - fallback electric generation plans, rationalized distribution schemes, temporary subsidies for the needy, etc.  Germany is just in trouble, because they don't have enough independently powered generating capacity to make do with the sort of shortfall they are going to have. 

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/12/germany-california-nuclear-power-climate/620888/

 

In American eyes, Merkel’s reputation has benefited from the comparison with Donald Trump, who singled her out as the democratic leader he disliked most. American journalists even touted her as the true leader of the free world, to jab at an American president who had abdicated that role. There is much to appreciate about her reticent style of leadership. But history may judge that, on one of the most consequential issues of her chancellorship, Merkel not only led from behind; she led in the wrong direction. And unfortunately for the world, Americans seem determined to follow Merkel’s path.

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The Energy Mix

 

U.S. Sees Drop in Gas-Fired Power Production

Natural gas-fired power generation in the United States peaked in 2020, and it will continue to fall as it competes with increasingly affordable wind and solar capacity, according to analysts who say renewables’ growth is being “supercharged” by rising fossil fuel costs and disruptions in energy security.

“The transition has just started,” Dennis Wamsted, energy analyst with the Institute for Energy Economics and Finance (IEEFA), told Utility Dive.

“We do believe that the takeoff is right now.”

Renewable energy could comprise 33% or more of the U.S. power market by 2026, finds the IEEFA, amending a 30% projection from just last year that analysts now believe was “on the low end” of possible growth. Combined with existing nuclear generation, the share of carbon-free electricity could be pushed well above 50%—“a massive transition from just five years ago,” IEEFA writes in its most recent U.S. power sector report.

“The soaring cost of fossil fuels and unexpected disruptions in energy security are now supercharging what was already a torrid pace of growth in solar, wind, and battery storage projects,” write the analysts.

Concerns about methane emissions from gas production and distribution also led to a decline in gas use, they add.

A report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) echoes IEEFA’s assessment, projecting that U.S. wind and solar farms will grow to 22% of the U.S. power sector this year and 23% in 2023, while gas-fired generation falls to 35% this year and next.

“Although new natural gas-fired power generating units are scheduled to come online in 2022, they are likely to be run at lower utilization rates than in recent years,” the EIA said. The agency expects the rise of renewable energy production will also push coal-fired generation down to 21% next year, from 23% in 2021 and 2022.

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What are supplying the charging stations with the power to charge these low budget future cheap Chinese cars?

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20 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

or not

image.thumb.png.183678c6e1162c1960dcc3adc017f565.png

That price does not include a home charge station, if in U.S. a electrical permit must be pulled, if You are sticking with a 120-volt charger that amounts to no more than a trickle charge.
 

If you are going to go with 220 volts your costs jump Dramatically. Additionally, the price you provided did not include the delivery charge; tax and title fees.

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(edited)

52 minutes ago, RichieRich216 said:

That price does not include a home charge station, if in U.S. a electrical permit must be pulled, if You are sticking with a 120-volt charger that amounts to no more than a trickle charge.
 

If you are going to go with 220 volts your costs jump Dramatically. Additionally, the price you provided did not include the delivery charge; tax and title fees.

The vast majority of houses have 220 ready to go. The charging station is a few hundred dollars.

You are pathetic. Delivery, tax and title are the same as for ICE. Tax and title depend on your state and delivery is $1500. Still way below your $75K.

And the Model 3 is way more than the "decent EV" that you specified.

Here is a "decent EV" (with the new and improved fire safe battery)

image.thumb.png.af89a53afd45446090986333b6e0d5da.png

Edited by Jay McKinsey
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1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

The vast majority of houses have 220 ready to go. The charging station is a few hundred dollars.

Hmmm Low Ball Larry?

https://homeguide.com/costs/electric-car-charging-stations-cost#installation

HOME EV CHARGING STATION COST
National Average Cost $1,200
Minimum Cost $400
Maximum Cost $5,000
Average Range $750 to $2,600

 

homeguide-electrician-costs-to-install-home-ev-charger.jpg

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4 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Hmmm Low Ball Larry?

https://homeguide.com/costs/electric-car-charging-stations-cost#installation

HOME EV CHARGING STATION COST
National Average Cost $1,200
Minimum Cost $400
Maximum Cost $5,000
Average Range $750 to $2,600

 

homeguide-electrician-costs-to-install-home-ev-charger.jpg

 

The average cost from your article still keeps the total cost way under $75K and will be paid for with fuel savings in less than a year. However many, many homes have a 220 dryer outlet already in their garage. Most home chargers have a version that plugs right into it. No electrician needed.

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(edited)

3 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

 

The average cost from your article still keeps the total cost way under $75K and will be paid for with fuel savings in less than a year. However many, many homes have a 220 dryer outlet already in their garage. Most home chargers have a version that plugs right into it. No electrician needed.

This is your charging station?

https://www.amazon.com/Conntek-RUL630PR-100-L6-30-Extension-100-Feet/dp/B074MNLD6R/ref=mp_s_a_1_3?adgrpid=91324281257&gclid=CjwKCAjwjZmTBhB4EiwAynRmD_Xjv5ib2GtjY1rF1qOkuqIvlCwf5teD5MDe430BYeNKZFPow3G8UhoCJtwQAvD_BwE&hvadid=580830382529&hvdev=m&hvlocphy=9032828&hvnetw=g&hvqmt=e&hvrand=8846164948334215272&hvtargid=kwd-342795292026&hydadcr=6238_13192630&keywords=220v+extension+cord+100ft&qid=1650910368&sr=8-3

 

51Wlhi4yCrL._AC_SL1500_.jpg

Edited by Eyes Wide Open

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(edited)

8 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

This is your charging station?

 

51Wlhi4yCrL._AC_SL1500_.jpg

No, that looks like some kind of extension cord.

image.png.6f3f21604d496b2456aef52b814b3b4a.pngha

A popular non tesla charger

image.thumb.png.ebd97df4fc5b3fdbda89da1c178672cd.png

Edited by Jay McKinsey

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