Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN March 30, 2022 Germany has triggered phase-1 of an emergency plan for natural gas. Germany's move comes ahead of Putin's March 31st deadline for Gazprom and Russia's central bank to arrange for payments in rubles for supplied natural gas. The EU and G7 rejected the Russian gas-for-rubles idea. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Germany-Gets-Ready-For-Gas-Rationing.html Germany Gets Ready For Gas Rationing By Tsvetana Paraskova - Mar 30, 2022, 10:30 AM CDT Germany has triggered phase-1 of an emergency plan for natural gas. Germany's move comes ahead of Putin's March 31st deadline for Gazprom and Russia's central bank to arrange for payments in rubles for supplied natural gas. The EU and G7 rejected the Russian gas-for-rubles idea. Join Our Community Germany is preparing for a potential disruption of natural gas supply from Russia and activated an emergency plan on Wednesday, ahead of the Thursday deadline Vladimir Putin has ordered for gas-for-ruble payments. Germany triggered an emergency plan in case the supply from Russia is interrupted. The plan could see rationing of gas supply. Other EU member states, including Greece and the Netherlands, have also placed their systems and stakeholders on high alert. Italy and Latvia also issued warnings of potential disruptions. Putin has set a March 31 deadline for the government, Gazprom, and the central bank of Russia to make the arrangements for payments in rubles from the so-called “hostile” countries. The Russian President—whose list of “hostile” states includes the United States, all EU member states, Switzerland, Canada, Norway, South Korea, Japan, and many others—ordered last week the central bank to develop a system for payments in rubles within a week. The EU and G7 rejected the Russian gas-for-rubles idea, saying that changing the currency of the payments would be a breach of contract and that Europe would not be blackmailed into buying gas with rubles. Yet, the emergency plan in Europe’s biggest economy, and warnings in other European markets, signal that the EU is preparing for a worst-case scenario of disrupted gas supply from Russia. German utilities had already called last week on the federal government to create a system for early warning about a potential drop in gas supply, noting that there are “serious indications that the gas supply situation is about to deteriorate.” Germany depends on Russian gas for around half of its needs, with many industries using gas and about half of all households heating with gas. The Russian war in Ukraine exposed Germany’s—and Europe’s—vulnerable reliance on gas and other energy flows from Russia. Europe has been reluctant to impose an embargo or sanctions on Russian energy because of its high dependence on supply from Moscow. By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com More Top Reads From Oilprice.com: Sanctions Are Forcing Russian Companies To Consider Moving To Kazakhstan Russia Threatens G7 Nations As Ministers Reject Gas-For-Rubles Scheme Are You Really Being ‘Gouged’ At The Gas Pump? 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Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN March 30, 2022 https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/why-us-wont-succeed-weaning-europe-its-dependence-russian-gas Europe's Plan To Boost LNG Imports From US, Elsewhere Faces Major Obstacles by Tyler Durden Wednesday, Mar 30, 2022 - 03:15 AM European leaders have grown quite fond of bandying about the notion of liberating their economies from their dependence on Russian oil and gas. Unfortunately, the numbers just don't make sense. On Tuesday, the FT highlighted how Washington's pledge to wean Europe off of Russian gas by boosting LNG exports simply doesn't add up. As a reminder, the US plan is supposed to work in three steps: first, it will help the EU secure short-term liquefied natural gas supplies to begin displacing Russian gas. Second, Europe will work "toward the goal of ensuring" a bigger market for US gas by 2030. Third, the US would help Europe accelerate its transition to clean energy. But how much more gas can the US even export? Limits on both exporters' capacity and Europe's infrastructure and ability to absorb gas imports by boat suggest that, for the foreseeable future, the notion of offsetting Russian energy exports is pretty much a pipe dream. The US says it aims to add 15 billion cubic meters of LNG to the EU this year, with more in the years to come. It didn't specify the origins of the gas, noting it would "work with international partners". By comparison, Russia currently exports 155 billion cubic meters a year of gas to the EU. However, the baseline for this 15 billion pledge isn't clear. While the US shipped about 22 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe in 2021, it has already sent about 10 billion in the first quarter of this year. All of it is in the form of LNG, which is much more expensive to ship than gas that flows through a pipeline (as most of the Russian gas arriving in the bloc does). Since October, America's LNG exports to Europe have already more than doubled. Source: FT Looking ahead, a team of analysts at Goldman Sachs warned clients in a recent research note that there's little scope for the US to boost LNG exports between now and 2025. Another major obstacle to replacing Russian gas with American (or Qatari, or Saudi or Australian) LNG is the lack of necessary infrastructure available in Europe. LNG must be carefully offloaded and "regasified" from its liquid state after arriving at its destination. And most European countries simply don't have the necessary infrastructure to accomplish this. Perhaps this is why European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has called on the EU to "pool its resources", while Germany has suggested renting floating "regasification" vessels. And even though the bloc's energy situation is more precarious than it has been in years, the clean-energy partisans are have vehemently opposed the construction of more of this LNG infrastructure for fear that it could undermine their agenda of renewables-first. This is a U-turn from previous EU purchasing decisions as many buyers had stopped negotiating with US developers for LNG due to ESG [environmental, social and governance] concerns,” said Sindre Knutsson at Rystad Energy, a consultancy. Environmentalists were scathing. “Allowing for the expansion of new and expanded gas export facilities would lock in decades of reliance on risky, volatile fossil fuels and spell disaster for our climate,” said Kelly Sheehan at the Sierra Club. Even if Europe did manage to rapidly build out the infrastructure (which is unlikely, given the opposition from the ESG fanatics), they would likely have trouble convincing exporters to cut them in. After all, why would the Saudis (who have so far steadfastly refused to boost production in the face of the Ukraine conflict), or the UAE reroute their oil and gas from rapidly growing Asian markets (where demand is expected to remain robust for years to come) to Europe (where any short-term increase in demand is expected to be quickly offset by the bloc's pivot to renewables?). That's a question President Biden and his European compatriots have been struggling to answer. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
footeab@yahoo.com + 2,129 March 30, 2022 Ah yes, and go electric vehicles as well with booming demand increase for electricity... yet pretend wind/solar will fill this gap without NG. Guess the Saudi's are as dumb as the Europeans if you go by the logic proposed by this article. Saudi's are not pumping as much for much different reasons. $$$. They like the high oil prices thank you very much after the last few disasterous years. Same reason shale drillers are not racing to drill baby drill. Bankruptcy helps no one. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
footeab@yahoo.com + 2,129 March 30, 2022 When EU places EMERGENCY orders with S. Korea for more LNG tankers, and starts building their own, we will know they are serious. Until then, this is an absurd joke. Unicorn farts will warm them. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN March 30, 2022 (edited) ZZZZZZZZ German gas ... Public displays of the letter "Z" have been outlawed in two German states, after authorities in Bavaria and Lower Saxony announced over the weekend that anyone who displays the letter - which has become synonymous with support for Russia's war in Ukraine - will be subject to a fine or three years in jail, according to The Local. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/german-states-outlaw-letter-z-displays-ukraine-asks-world-criminalize Edited March 30, 2022 by Tom Nolan Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
surrept33 + 609 st March 31, 2022 Who blinked first? https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/30/business/germany-gas-rationing.html After Germany Moves Toward Gas Rationing, Putin Appears to Offer a Workaround The economy minister had said Germany must be “prepared for an escalation on the part of Russia.” Germany began preparing for shortages and potential future rationing of natural gas, citing concerns that Russia could cut off deliveries unless payments on existing contracts were made in rubles.CreditCredit...Bernd Von Jutrczenka/DPA, via Associated Press March 30, 2022Updated 4:54 p.m. ET BERLIN — Germany made the latest move in the brinkmanship with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia over his demand that Moscow be paid in rubles for critical energy supplies, announcing on Wednesday that it was prepared to ration natural gas if Russia cut its supplies. Hours later, the Kremlin appeared to defuse the standoff by detailing a plan that would allow Berlin or other European customers to keep paying in euros. The plan was relayed by Mr. Putin in a telephone call with Chancellor Olaf Scholz, according to statements released late Wednesday by the German government and by the Russian state news agency, Tass. In the call, Mr. Putin said that a new Russian law requiring gas deliveries to be settled in rubles would go into effect April 1. But “payments would continue to be made exclusively in euros and transferred as usual to Gazprom Bank, which is not affected by the sanctions,” according to a statement from Mr. Scholz’s office summarizing the call. “The bank would then convert the money into rubles.” Western sanctions are aimed at crippling the Russian economy by cutting off the country’s central bank, threatening the country’s currency, the ruble. But the Moscow-based Gazprom Bank, which handles energy contracts, was not placed under sanctions, a concession to Europe’s heavy dependence on Russian coal, oil and natural gas. More than 40 percent of all gas imported by Europe is from Russia. Europe’s energy payments to Russia, which have been rising because of escalating prices, could average $850 million per day in the first half of 2022, according to Bruegel, an economics institute in Brussels. By going through the Gazprom Bank, Russia is able to convert the Western currencies to rubles. Earlier Wednesday, the German government activated the first step of a national gas emergency plan that could lead to the rationing of natural gas. The action — the first step, or “early warning stage” — involves setting up a crisis team of representatives from the federal and state governments, regulators and private industry, said Robert Habeck, the economy minister and vice chancellor. The move illustrates the risk facing European countries that rely on Russian oil and gas as the war in Ukraine drags on. On Monday, energy ministers from the Group of 7 nations rejected a demand by Russia that the country be paid for its supplies in rubles. Several European energy companies have said payment in rubles would require a renegotiation of long-term contracts. “We will not accept any breach of the private contracts,” Mr. Habeck said. Eswar Prasad, a professor of trade policy at Cornell University, said the demand to be paid in rubles made little sense economically: “Paying euros actually helps Putin rather than hurting him.” Euros, which are considered strong and stable, can be used by Russia to prop up the ruble when its own currency has been weakened. “We must increase precautionary measures to be prepared for an escalation on the part of Russia,” Mr. Habeck told reporters. “With the declaration of the early warning level, a crisis team has convened.” The team will meet daily to monitor the situation and establish measures that can be taken if supplies start running low, which Mr. Habeck stressed was not yet the case. Only if the situation were critical enough would the government intervene to begin rationing natural gas supplies. In that case, according to a planning document, households and critical public services, including hospitals and emergency services, would be prioritized over industry. Roughly half of Germany’s homes rely on natural gas for their heating, and 55 percent of the country’s gas comes from Russia. It arrives via overland pipelines through Ukraine and Poland and through the original Nord Stream pipeline under the Baltic Sea. A sister pipeline that was awaiting German approval, Nord Stream 2, was effectively frozen by the government two days before Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine. “Security of supply continues to be guaranteed,” Mr. Habeck said. “There are currently no supply bottlenecks. Nevertheless, we must increase precautionary measures to be prepared for an escalation on the part of Russia.” Gazprom, Russia’s state-owned energy company, said on Wednesday that it had continued to supply gas to Europe via Ukraine in line with requests from European consumers and that flows remained high. Gas was also flowing west through a pipeline that crosses Poland from Russia for the first time since March 15, it said. Poland has been lobbying its European Union partners to end their dependence on Russian energy as quickly as possible. The government in Warsaw has a pipeline linking the country to Norway that is expected to open by the end of the year, and capacities for liquefied natural gas would be increased. The country also announced it would stop importing Russian oil by the end of the year. In Athens, the Greek energy ministry called an emergency meeting of all players in the country’s gas market to discuss alternative options for procuring natural gas in the event of an interruption in Russian gas supplies, the ministry said. Mr. Habeck also urged German consumers and companies to begin making efforts to cut their energy use wherever possible. “Every kilowatt-hour counts,” he said. Patricia Cohen, Ivan Nechepurenko and Niki Kitsantonis contributed reporting. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
surrept33 + 609 st March 31, 2022 U.S. Warns India, Others Against Sharp Rise in Russian Oil Imports NEW DELHI (Reuters) - A significant increase in Russian oil imports by India could expose New Delhi to a "great risk" as the United States prepares to step up enforcement of sanctions against Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine, a senior U.S. administration official said. The U.S. official's comment comes ahead of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's two-day visit to New Delhi and during the ongoing visit of U.S. deputy national security adviser for economics Daleep Singh. Refiners in India, the world's third biggest oil importer and consumer, have been snapping up Russian oil through spot tenders since the war broke out on Feb. 24, taking advantage of deep discounts as other buyers back away. India has purchased at least 13 million barrels of Russian oil since Feb. 24, compared with nearly 16 million barrels in all of 2021. "We, over the next several days and weeks, are going to be stepping up enforcement of sanctions. We are telling everybody, everywhere around the world to ensure you are compliant with sanctions … this is the message to everyone". The U.S. sanctions have granted a waiver till June 24 for settling energy trade with the Central Bank of Russia. The State Department is aware of talks between Russia and India concerning the purchase of oil, a spokesperson said. "We continue to engage our partners in India and around the world on the importance of a strong collective action, including strong sanctions, to press the Kremlin to end its devastating war of choice against Ukraine as soon as possible," the spokesperson said. "U.S. has no objection to India buying Russian oil provided it buys it at discount, without significantly increasing from previous years," said the source who spoke on condition of anonymity. "Some increase is allowed," said the source, who did not offer more detail. The Biden administration is coordinating with India and European countries to mitigate the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on energy markets, while encouraging steps to reduce dependence on Russian energy, the spokesperson said. The source said Washington has no problems if India settles trade with Russia in rupees or continues to pay in dollars, provided the transaction are sanctions-compliant and with permitted entities.India is devising a mechanism to settle trade with Russia, including through payment in rupees. https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-03-30/exclusive-u-s-warns-india-others-against-sharp-rise-in-russian-oil-imports-official Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ron Wagner + 642 March 31, 2022 10 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said: Ah yes, and go electric vehicles as well with booming demand increase for electricity... yet pretend wind/solar will fill this gap without NG. Guess the Saudi's are as dumb as the Europeans if you go by the logic proposed by this article. Saudi's are not pumping as much for much different reasons. $$$. They like the high oil prices thank you very much after the last few disasterous years. Same reason shale drillers are not racing to drill baby drill. Bankruptcy helps no one. Losing your market to competitors with better prices doesn't help either. The competitors can be from other energy sources that are preferred by the greenies also. So I wouldn't have as much greed as I see right now. Gasoline is far more at retail than it should be. Like 40 cents a gallon too high. Same with ethanol to blend with it, which is far cheaper. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Starschy + 211 PM April 1, 2022 The rationing will not help large. It may help for a month or so. But winter is coming in a few Months and till then nothing will change that quick. Europe is not China. Inflation rate is 7.3% in Germany. Last time it was in 1990 30 years ago. The Baltic states are close to 10% across the board. When Ukraine will loose 50% of Wheat and Sunflower Oil and seeds their Export looses at least 3 Bio. USD. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tomasz + 1,608 April 1, 2022 (edited) The Central Bank has determined the procedure for paying for gas in rubles The Central Bank has determined the regime of special accounts for settlements with foreign buyers for natural gas. The Gazprombank will convert the received foreign currency into rubles in accordance with the decree of President Vladimir Putin. The procedure for converting foreign currency into rubles under gas contracts: foreign currency under contracts for the supply of natural gas is credited to a type “K” bank account in this currency; funds of a foreign buyer, on his behalf, are debited from his account of type "K" in foreign currency; conversion takes place in accordance with paragraph 6 of Decree No. 172; according to the results of the conversion, funds in rubles are credited to a bank account of type “K” in rubles; there is a debiting of funds in rubles from a type “K” bank account to the accounts of Russian natural gas suppliers. Other write-offs and credits to bank accounts of type "K" are carried out according to the standard conditions for the operation of a bank account. Among them is payment for bank services. President Vladimir Putin today, March 31, signed a decree according to which settlements for gas supplies to "unfriendly countries" will be carried out in rubles. The new gas sales rules will come into effect on April 1. https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5284007 Edited April 1, 2022 by Tomasz Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tomasz + 1,608 April 1, 2022 In march 2022 Gazprom was sending 493 milion cubic meters per day at price over 1.000 $ per 1.000 m3 outside Russia Its to fat cow to kill her for changing currency But newest contracts with Greece Slovakia Turkey Hungary and Austria has rouble clausures and from 1 Aprill will be paid in roubles so some european countries are really going to pay in this new currency. Its not made to make rouble stronger because even now 80 % of Gazprom revenues are exchanged to roubles. Its made to protect major banks that will proceed this transactions from further sanction- Sberbank and Gazprombank are 2 major russian banks (apart from VB) Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
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