Ukraine gas

[Frank123 0]

Ukraine importing around 60% gas from Russia.Therefore Putin could not take any gas from Ukraine.Always check the data.

[Tom Nolan + 2,441]

What if Austin were Kyiv? Map shows how Russian invasion of Ukraine, war zones can hit close to home

https://www.yahoo.com/news/austin-were-kyiv-ukraine-map-144523602.html

 

 

[nsdp + 449]

With the destruction Ukraine has suffered in the last 7 weeks, I doubt that Ukraine will ever buy another GJ of NG from Russia again.  40% from other sources will be sufficient while they rebuild.  That gives Cypress and Lebanon sufficient time to build an under sea pipeline around Turkey to Greece and access through Bulgaria and Romania.

Putin has just cut off another source of income.  Plus losing customers down stream on his pipeline through Ukraine.  Real Genius

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Perhaps I will tell you a little shocking secret that the Ukrainian army probably would have run out of fuel at least a month ago - oil is of course  still supplied to Ukraine by the Russian Federation.

And for last 8 years I dont know whether now but for that 8 years diesel fuel was mainly supplied from the Belarusian refinery in Mozyr.

 Lukashenko himself once told Poroshenko's clearly to behave because he cuts off diesel supplies to Ukraine and after a week the entire Ukrainian economy is standing still.

For last 8 years Ukraine was importing electricity from Belarus and Russia and coal from Russia and Donbas

Once in 2016 year Russia became even the main importer of Ukraine military equipment

You might thought Im lying but this is bussiness between oligarchs both in Ukraine and Russia

So one day we can fight hard with each other but next day lets do some bussiness.

 

[nsdp + 449]

What makes you think that the market will be there.  Putin has destroyed it and Ukraine won't need the gas for electricity peaking the next three years and they have switched to the EU grid and will be selling excess power there while reconstruction goes on.  Ukrainian gas market is gone forever as far as Russia is concerned. How Ukraine Unplugged from Russia and Joined Europe’s Power Grid with Unprecedented Speed ttps://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-ukraine-unplugged-from-russia-and-joined-europes-power-grid-with-unprecedented-speed/

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Let me explain. There is pipeline from Russia through Ukraine next to Czech and Hungary.

NG is flowing through Ukraine to Western Europe. Ukraine takes NG and transit feets.

Oil is sent to Czech and Hungary through Ukraine.

Russian oil from this pipeline is only reason why ukrainian army at least for month is not out of fuel

It looks for me rather strange that you fight biggest war in Europe after 1945 and you still give oil to your enemy.

Dont you think so?

If Ukraine wanted to put embargo on russian oil and gas to European Union it looks very easy.

All you need to do is to stop transiting it through Ukraine.

But of course Im russian troll and putin supporter.

[TailingsPond + 473]

3 hours ago, nsdp said:

With the destruction Ukraine has suffered in the last 7 weeks, I doubt that Ukraine will ever buy another GJ of NG from Russia again.  40% from other sources will be sufficient while they rebuild.  That gives Cypress and Lebanon sufficient time to build an under sea pipeline around Turkey to Greece and access through Bulgaria and Romania.

Putin has just cut off another source of income.  Plus losing customers down stream on his pipeline through Ukraine.  Real Genius

Ukraine becomes part of Russia.

[Starschy + 211]

5 hours ago, Frank123 said:

Ukraine importing around 60% gas from Russia.Therefore Putin could not take any gas from Ukraine.Always check the data.

Ukraine is re-importing Gas from Germany. Gas which sold Russia to Germany. If in the Ukraine War the Gaspipeline will be damaged then there is no more Gas from the Ukraine at all.

 

 

[Starschy + 211]

2 minutes ago, TailingsPond said:

Ukraine becomes part of Russia.

Cypress and Lebanon are you crazy. The don't have money or other Resources to buy a pipeline. Lebanon has no money not even for heating.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

If Ukraine want an instant embargo on russian gas and oil they can stop transit about 800.000 barrels per day and 110 mln m3 of NG at their own request by refusing to transit it at this very moment.

There is only a small problem- Germany at this very moment finding his own petrochemical industry and big german industry in a state of instant death do the only one sensible SOS move for Western Europe- at this very moment NG unofficialy starts flowing through NS II because thats state of emergency.

And thats end of ukrainian story as transit country so Ukraine looses much of its geopolitical weight.

So Russia now is free to finish its job to demilitarize Ukraine. By this I mean destroying ukrainian army and destroying far-right volunteers batalions (destroying Azov Aidar Right Sector and Banderites which is really much more important than Ukrainian army as non-ideological troops)

If Putin by denazification means destroying banderites I think he we will be welcomed by sensible people even in my home country Poland.

I dont mean all of Ukrainians but definately there is too much far-right banderites there. As you know people in Poland dont really like them after Volyn Massacre in 1943/1944.

Edited April 11, 2022 by Tomasz

[nsdp + 449]

7 hours ago, Tomasz said:

Perhaps I will tell you a little shocking secret that the Ukrainian army probably would have run out of fuel at least a month ago - oil is of course  still supplied to Ukraine by the Russian Federation.

And for last 8 years I dont know whether now but for that 8 years diesel fuel was mainly supplied from the Belarusian refinery in Mozyr.

 Lukashenko himself once told Poroshenko's clearly to behave because he cuts off diesel supplies to Ukraine and after a week the entire Ukrainian economy is standing still.

For last 8 years Ukraine was importing electricity from Belarus and Russia and coal from Russia and Donbas

Once in 2016 year Russia became even the main importer of Ukraine military equipment

You might thought Im lying but this is bussiness between oligarchs both in Ukraine and Russia

So one day we can fight hard with each other but next day lets do some bussiness.

 

The oil used right now in the Ukraine comes from Norway if you look at cargo trackers.  The other item is usage is 45% of normal.  ever hear of demand destruction.

[Ron Wagner + 643]

19 hours ago, Starschy said:

Ukraine is re-importing Gas from Germany. Gas which sold Russia to Germany. If in the Ukraine War the Gaspipeline will be damaged then there is no more Gas from the Ukraine at all.

 

 

That might apply to all of the Russian pipelines also. 

[Ron Wagner + 643]

19 hours ago, Starschy said:

Cypress and Lebanon are you crazy. The don't have money or other Resources to buy a pipeline. Lebanon has no money not even for heating.

European money might be made available but Turkey wants part of the pie and Lebanon is too unstable possibly.

More likely The Israeli and Egyptian fields would be used. 

[Michael Sanches + 187]

23 hours ago, nsdp said:

Putin has just cut off another source of income.  Plus losing customers down stream on his pipeline through Ukraine.  Real Genius

India and China will buy all the oil and NG Russia has to sell.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

9 minutes ago, Michael Sanches said:

India and China will buy all the oil and NG Russia has to sell.

Not even close. 90% of Russian oil and gas can only get to India and China by traveling through NATO. If the decision is made to shut that down there are no alternatives for Russia for years. 

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,539]

23 hours ago, Tomasz said:

So one day we can fight hard with each other but next day lets do some bussiness.

 

Oddly enough that I do understand, to be frank that commentary would be a foundational principle for many US ethnicity jokes made many yrs ago. 

 

[Tomasz + 1,608]

19 hours ago, nsdp said:

The oil used right now in the Ukraine comes from Norway if you look at cargo trackers.  The other item is usage is 45% of normal.  ever hear of demand destruction.

From Norway to Ukraine. How its possible? Please tell me. You must be some kind of field marshall of logistics

Its made through Belarus dependent fully on Russia? Through Black See blocked by russian navy?

Or how its really made? By trucks through Sweden Denmark Germany and Poland? Because I dont really see any pipeline to send it from Norway to Ukraine?

 Please englight to me how its really even possible in Aprill 2022 to send some norway oil to Ukraine?

 

[Tomasz + 1,608]

4 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Not even close. 90% of Russian oil and gas can only get to India and China by traveling through NATO. If the decision is made to shut that down there are no alternatives for Russia for years. 

So now you want just like that to block oil from Russia to China or India. As far as I know this is trigger for WW3. Both are nuclear powers I must remind you every day if you forget about that.

But you could also buy a map. Russia and China are in fact neighbors. In fact this is one of longest borders you could find on the map.

If there is now ESPO pipeline I dont see why there is no reason to build another pipeline.

If you are not sure you can even find special ESPO blend on oilprice.com as one of more important international blends of crude oil. Dont forget also about Sokol blend  produce in joint venture with .... Exxon Mobile.

Edited April 12, 2022 by Tomasz

[Tom Nolan + 2,441]

23 hours ago, Tomasz said:

If Ukraine want an instant embargo on russian gas and oil they can stop transit about 800.000 barrels per day and 110 mln m3 of NG at their own request by refusing to transit it at this very moment.

There is only a small problem- Germany at this very moment finding his own petrochemical industry and big german industry in a state of instant death do the only one sensible SOS move for Western Europe- at this very moment NG unofficialy starts flowing through NS II because thats state of emergency.

And thats end of ukrainian story as transit country so Ukraine looses much of its geopolitical weight.

So Russia now is free to finish its job to demilitarize Ukraine. By this I mean destroying ukrainian army and destroying far-right volunteers batalions (destroying Azov Aidar Right Sector and Banderites which is really much more important than Ukrainian army as non-ideological troops)

If Putin by denazification means destroying banderites I think he we will be welcomed by sensible people even in my home country Poland.

I dont mean all of Ukrainians but definately there is too much far-right banderites there. As you know people in Poland dont really like them after Volyn Massacre in 1943/1944.

“We will not stop military operations in Ukraine until they succeed,” Putin said, adding that Ukraine has “deviated” from agreements that were made during previous rounds of talks, according to state-run RIA Novosti.

The goals of the conflict are “absolutely clear and noble,” Putin also said, state media reported. “There is no doubt that the goals will be achieved.”

“The main goal is to help the people of Donbass [region in eastern Ukraine], whose independence we recognized. We were forced to do so because the Kyiv authorities, pressed by the West, refused to comply with the Minsk agreements aimed at a peaceful solution of the Donbass-related problems,” Putin continued.

https://www.zerohedge.com/military/putin-breaks-silence-says-russia-will-triumph-ukraine

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

51 minutes ago, Tomasz said:

So now you want just like that to block oil from Russia to China or India. As far as I know this is trigger for WW3. Both are nuclear powers I must remind you every day if you forget about that.

But you could also buy a map. Russia and China are in fact neighbors. In fact this is one of longest borders you could find on the map.

If there is now ESPO pipeline I dont see why there is no reason to build another pipeline.

If you are not sure you can even find special ESPO blend on oilprice.com as one of more important international blends of crude oil. Dont forget also about Sokol blend  produce in joint venture with .... Exxon Mobile.

Blocking exports from Europe is in discussion. That would leave Russia open to export through other locations. Their problem then is that 90% of Russian product is produced in Western Siberia and shipped to Europe. The only quick alternative is the arctic ocean route which is long, difficult and expensive. Yes they can build pipelines to the east but that will take years, as I said. And China will pay them almost nothing for the oil, by the time the pipelines are complete they will be at 90% new EV market share.

And didn't Exxon Mobile pull out of that joint venture thus bringing it to a grinding halt? 

Edited April 12, 2022 by Jay McKinsey

[Rob Plant + 2,617]

12 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Blocking exports from Europe is in discussion. That would leave Russia open to export through other locations. Their problem then is that 90% of Russian product is produced in Western Siberia and shipped to Europe. The only quick alternative is the arctic ocean route which is long, difficult and expensive. Yes they can build pipelines to the east but that will take years, as I said. And China will pay them almost nothing for the oil, by the time the pipelines are complete they will be at 90% new EV market share.

And didn't Exxon Mobile pull out of that joint venture thus bringing it to a grinding halt? 

Jay the Russia to China pipeline has been in the offing since 2014.

It will be in situ in 2-3 years which isnt that long

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-russia-china-agree-30-year-gas-deal-using-new-pipeline-source-2022-02-04/

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

6 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Jay the Russia to China pipeline has been in the offing since 2014.

It will be in situ in 2-3 years which isnt that long

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-russia-china-agree-30-year-gas-deal-using-new-pipeline-source-2022-02-04/

It doesn't connect to the west where the vast majority of Russian oil and gas production is. 

[Rob Plant + 2,617]

14 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

It doesn't connect to the west where the vast majority of Russian oil and gas production is. 

Jay "The power of Siberia Pipeline" does connect gas fields that already can supply 38bcm of gas per year, Russia have agreed to supply an additional 10bcm to China from the 16.5bcm it supplied in 2021 to a total of 26.5bcm, so still capacity available from the easten gas fields and Sakhalin island.

There is also the proposed "Power of Siberia 2 Pipeline" that will connect to the western Russian gas fields by 2030 latest and you can guarantee the project will now be fast tracked in light of Europe's endeavours to move away from Russian gas reliance.

https://www.pipeline-journal.net/news/power-siberia-2-pipeline-puts-ever-more-pressure-europe#:~:text=Russia has agreed to a,over Ukraine and other issues.

https://www.offshore-technology.com/marketdata/power-of-siberia-2-gas-pipeline-russia/

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

1 hour ago, Rob Plant said:

Jay "The power of Siberia Pipeline" does connect gas fields that already can supply 38bcm of gas per year, Russia have agreed to supply an additional 10bcm to China from the 16.5bcm it supplied in 2021 to a total of 26.5bcm, so still capacity available from the easten gas fields and Sakhalin island.

There is also the proposed "Power of Siberia 2 Pipeline" that will connect to the western Russian gas fields by 2030 latest and you can guarantee the project will now be fast tracked in light of Europe's endeavours to move away from Russian gas reliance.

https://www.pipeline-journal.net/news/power-siberia-2-pipeline-puts-ever-more-pressure-europe#:~:text=Russia has agreed to a,over Ukraine and other issues.

https://www.offshore-technology.com/marketdata/power-of-siberia-2-gas-pipeline-russia/

The eastern fields are new and more complex than the western fields. They are reliant on Western know how, those are the fields that the Western oil companies abandoned. It is doubtful that they can increase production to fill out the current or newly agreed upon pipeline. Regardless, this gas is minuscule compared to what is shipped to Europe.

Power of Siberia 2 is still just a proposal. It has been in the works for a decade and not agreed upon. It's hard to fast track a project that has been in discussion for years. China knows Russia is desperate, they will drive a hard bargain and then it will still take many years to build.

https://fortune.com/2022/04/06/china-buys-russia-energy-exports-oil-gas-coal-ukraine-sanctions-thane-gustafson/

https://www.iea.org/articles/energy-fact-sheet-why-does-russian-oil-and-gas-matter

 

Edited April 14, 2022 by Jay McKinsey

[Rob Plant + 2,617]

28 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

They are reliant on Western know how, those are the fields that the Western oil companies abandoned.

Are you suggesting Gazprom cant operate or increase production out of Sakhalin or the Chayanda field because they dont have the expertise?

This just isnt correct.

Chayanda has the ability on its own to supply 38bcm to China if they wish, no need for Western companies expertise whatsover.

"The full capacity of the 1,420 mm (56 in) pipeline would be up to 61 billion m³ (2.2 trillion cu ft) per annum of natural gas,^[5][19] of which 38 billion m³ (1.3 trillion cu ft) per annum are supplied to China.^[20][21] The export to China starts with 5 billion m³ (180 billion cu ft) per annum in 2020, and is expected to increase gradually to 38 billion m³ (1.3 trillion cu ft) per annum by 2025.^[22]