by 7-12-2018, WTI (crude) will be trading under $72

Not trying to be William Delbert Gann from 1800s early 1900s, but it been clear now since last week, just wanted to put a target and date on the matter.

Please note trading futures is risky, you could lose everything, and  I mean everything, your money, your house and your wife.

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And whose projection is this? Sounds like you're speaking from experience...

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have you figured the cause for front month WTI spread yet?

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Danilka, how are you. Please understand, I just look at charts to see where any instrument is going. So that is the USD, Euro, GBP, OIL whatever. Why the spreads are diff, is not something I even care about. I simply pick a month and trade it down or up.

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Notice how news and analysts are still saying oil will hit 80s and 100s and 250s, even while I have been saying since last week we'll hit the 60s. No one has woken up yet to the fact oil will soon drop hard. But they will, after the fact. Watch!

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My $72 WTI target hit a day too early. I hope you can forgive me.

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5 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Notice how news and analysts are still saying oil will hit 80s and 100s and 250s, even while I have been saying since last week we'll hit the 60s. No one has woken up yet to the fact oil will soon drop hard. But they will, after the fact. Watch!

For the newbies (myself), and those with little to no knowledge about futures (myself), would you mind explaining how/why you came to your initial prediction and why the analysts are still predicting oil at $80-250.    

Thanks,

TP 

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How are you? Let me explain a little  bit about charting first. Most people think including traders, that fundamentals is what is important. I think fundamentals is important too, but that charts predict the fundamentals, way before. Now, having said that, most people who do trade by charts, look at charts incorrectly. Therefore, fundamentalist think that looking at charts is a random walk, something you can look up. 

Now you can study charts for 20 years and still come up with the wrong results, just listen to some analysts who are chartists and notice how few times they will be right. Now I look at charts you might say from a different dimension, and in many cases I can find the correct path of the future prices, well before most can. I am not showing off, but If i explained this to someone with 20 years charting experience he would say I was off the wall. So to even begin to explain to a newbie, would probably take me years, my friend. Again the way I look at charts, is very unique and there is noone who even comes close, if someone did come close I already would have come across them by now, since I watch every fundamentalist, analysts, and chartists, and they do use conventional trading, such as fundamentals, or charting, such as moving average, stochastics, rsi, macd, trend lines, quantitative analysis etc. I call my strategy "thinking a little out of the box ahead of the crowd", and this I guess took me a long time to figure out, actually I would say I figured it out very fast, but since I was so different, It took  me a while to have confidence in myself, but of course first I had to understand what the rest of traders focus on, which is volumes of charting books, being used for quite some time.

Hope this helps. Cheers.

 

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Notice how news and analysts are still saying oil will hit 80s and 100s and 250s, even while I have been saying since last week we'll hit the 60s. No one has woken up yet to the fact oil will soon drop hard. But they will, after the fact. Watch!

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Now just for a detailed understanding of futures and options, lots of people here can explain it a lot better than I can, i,m pretty short and to the point when i try and explain something, so please ask them.

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17 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

How are you? Let me explain a little  bit about charting first. Most people think including traders, that fundamentals is what is important. I think fundamentals is important too, but that charts predict the fundamentals, way before. Now, having said that, most people who do trade by charts, look at charts incorrectly. Therefore, fundamentalist think that looking at charts is a random walk, something you can look up. 

Now you can study charts for 20 years and still come up with the wrong results, just listen to some analysts who are chartists and notice how few times they will be right. Now I look at charts you might say from a different dimension, and in many cases I can find the correct path of the future prices, well before most can. I am not showing off, but If i explained this to someone with 20 years charting experience he would say I was off the wall. So to even begin to explain to a newbie, would probably take me years, my friend. Again the way I look at charts, is very unique and there is noone who even comes close, if someone did come close I already would have come across them by now, since I watch every fundamentalist, analysts, and chartists, and they do use conventional trading, such as fundamentals, or charting, such as moving average, stochastics, rsi, macd, trend lines, quantitative analysis etc. I call my strategy "thinking a little out of the box ahead of the crowd", and this I guess took me a long time to figure out, actually I would say I figured it out very fast, but since I was so different, It took  me a while to have confidence in myself, but of course first I had to understand what the rest of traders focus on, which is volumes of charting books, being used for quite some time.

Hope this helps. Cheers.

 

So, if I understand you correctly, you have a personal, well developed and somewhat unorthodox way of viewing the data and making your predictions.  You don't throw the baby out with the bathwater but you don't place as much dependence on the conventional way most other traders view the data, make predictions and take actions.  Fair enough.  I asked because after reading your initial post I wondered if there was some glaring data point or sign that others were missing or ignoring.

Thanks,

TP

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How are you? Let me explain a little  bit about charting first. Most people think including traders, that fundamentals is what is important. I think fundamentals is important too, but that charts predict the fundamentals, way before. Now, having said that, most people who do trade by charts, look at charts incorrectly. Therefore, fundamentalist think that looking at charts is a random walk, something you can look up. 

Now you can study charts for 20 years and still come up with the wrong results, just listen to some analysts who are chartists and notice how few times they will be right. Now I look at charts you might say from a different dimension, and in many cases I can find the correct path of the future prices, well before most can. I am not showing off, but If i explained this to someone with 20 years charting experience he would say I was off the wall. So to even begin to explain to a newbie, would probably take me years, my friend. Again the way I look at charts, is very unique and there is noone who even comes close, if someone did come close I already would have come across them by now, since I watch every fundamentalist, analysts, and chartists, and they do use conventional trading, such as fundamentals, or charting, such as moving average, stochastics, rsi, macd, trend lines, quantitative analysis etc. I call my strategy "thinking a little out of the box ahead of the crowd", and this I guess took me a long time to figure out, actually I would say I figured it out very fast, but since I was so different, It took  me a while to have confidence in myself, but of course first I had to understand what the rest of traders focus on, which is volumes of charting books, being used for quite some time.

Hope this helps. Cheers.

 

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How are you TXPower. By the way I live in Texas too. Yes, when i listen to analysts or the talking heads, and I do listen to quit a few every day, i feel sorry for them, and in many cases they really make me laugh like a comedy show. It is good I am not in front of them, it would be embarrassing, but I do like them as good people.

Yes I am very familiar with conventional wisdom of trading and how to approach the fundamentals of an instrument. And in the beginning I used to listen and follow, but when I saw listening to them was only getting me into trouble, I had to look for a new approach. So here I am.

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So, how long you been doing this and how have you done with it?

Do you think oil will ever go back past where it was a week ago or where do you think oil prices will range in the future? Any forecasts?

You certainly did nail your one forecast here.

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