Well from $74 we hit 67.xx now what?

Well, as you see, charts can predict future prices quite accurately. They can't predict the event though. But this is not saying you can just look at a chart, and you'll figure it out. Takes some practice,  maybe a little more than that. So what happens next? Well first of all at $62.50 well see some nice bounce. From 67.xx we could see 68.xx and then 62.50. So that would have been a nice trade of a $14 move, enough to have make a lot of money. Each $1 move on 1 future is $1,000, which requires about $3000 margin.

But notice When I came out with the prediction we would soon drop $3 from $75, no one thought it was possible. And even after dropping further, news came out to say, this just a small correction. And then what happened we fall another $5. Is this the twilight zone.

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the next year likely will oscilate from 50$ to 100$ dollars

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(edited)

16 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Is this the twilight zone.

Yup, sure is!

But keep in mind that these short-term inter-day and intra-day trade oscillations will obscure longer-term product substitution.  Inevitably, the longer term will see lower use of oil in everything from jet engines to rail locomotives to automobiles to the manufacture of concrete.  Product substitution will be the driver for a shrunken oil industry  (and shut-in oil).

Just for example, look at concrete, now a widely-used (and abused) construction material.  A concrete kiln uses vast amounts of heat.  As concrete is replaced by substitute goods, specifically wood, the sources of that heat will see dropping demand.  Concrete kilns use so much material in producing heat that they have become a machine for disposing of old tires, now burned up inside those kilns to extract the heat content in the rubber.  Construction of office buildings today typically involve a steel skeleton and a poured concrete set of floors.  When that is all replaced by structural (cross-laminated timber) wood, the demand for the steel and the concrete diminishes.  Remembering that all you have to do to get the wood is run a saw through it, the material and energy is all from sunlight and water, it takes little input to obtain the structure.  As society becomes more energy-efficient, inevitably the demand for oil drops.  And that drop will predictably be significant. The days of energy-hog buildings and 11 mpg pick-up trucks is rapidly drawing to a close. 

Edited by Jan van Eck
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1 hour ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Well, as you see, charts can predict future prices quite accurately. They can't predict the event though. But this is not saying you can just look at a chart, and you'll figure it out. Takes some practice,  maybe a little more than that. So what happens next? Well first of all at $62.50 well see some nice bounce. From 67.xx we could see 68.xx and then 62.50. So that would have been a nice trade of a $14 move, enough to have make a lot of money. Each $1 move on 1 future is $1,000, which requires about $3000 margin.

But notice When I came out with the prediction we would soon drop $3 from $75, no one thought it was possible. And even after dropping further, news came out to say, this just a small correction. And then what happened we fall another $5. Is this the twilight zone.

Analysis appreciated.  To trade short(er) term oil prices, your predictions would seem sound JJ.  Thanks.

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So as expected a small push up to 68.xx which could take us for a small journey, but from the looks of it, a journey to nowhere. It like in NYC we have cruise ships that have 3 day trips to go to nowhere and come back. Same here, the up move will go nowhere and back, down, how far up nowhere, I can't guess, since those moves are random, and not based on any fundamental reason. You might say it is investors squaring up their positions end of day.

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Just remember there will be forces larger than life, trying to push the oil prices back up, if we are in a downtrend, they may succeed. So to hope for prices to go straight down, is a fantasy. These large trading  vehicles are very volatile, and if you don't time it right, especially if you are heavily margin-ed, a MC will be in order. Therefore even if you know  that prices are going up or down, if you don't time it right, you can still lose your shirt, arm or both.

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