67.50 was the low for now, $70 - $76+ back in play

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Tom, this is very impressive, you obviously just like William know a lot about the industry. The thing is Tom, charts are like the Tsunami. The waves start hundreds of miles out there, but people only get hit once the waves hit the shores. I look for warning signs of up or down moves, and act way before the rest, as you can see. I try to pinpoint the exact change in direction of the storm. And in many cases i'm pretty accurate. I know its a hard feat to do, but as you can see, the drop before made me nervous but constantly going back to my charts, I realized there was no chance I was wrong, but sometimes they overpower the truth, see the oil prices are not based on true news, but are in many cases pushed by the futures trades to go in one way more that it should, because of fear and greed, sometimes causing me to take another look at the charts, and see if I overlooked something.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Very nice Tom. So you are in the industry just like William. I guess you two must have a lot to talk about. Even not here in the forum.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

12 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

charts are like the Tsunami. The waves start hundreds of miles out there, but people only get hit once the waves hit the shores. I look for warning signs of up or down moves, and act way before the rest, as you can see. I try to pinpoint the exact change in direction of the storm. And in many cases i'm pretty accurate. I know its a hard feat to do, but as you can see, the drop before made me nervous but constantly going back to my charts, I realized there was no chance I was wrong, but sometimes they overpower the truth, see the oil prices are not based on true news, but are in many cases pushed by the futures trades to go in one way more that it should, because of fear and greed, sometimes causing me to take another look at the charts, and see if I overlooked something.

Being able to see when the Tsunami is forming rather than when it is in sight of the shore is a skill that I can only wish I possessed.  If you can visualize this even fairly accurately by looking at the charts, I would call that an impressive skill indeed.  Kudos.

Anyway, your discussion with Tom is interesting and educational.  Please keep it going.  This is "Oil Price", so any techniques and knowledge should remain quite welcome, I would think.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

5 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Very nice Tom. So you are in the industry just like William. I guess you two must have a lot to talk about. Even not here in the forum.

@William Edwards has a totally different view, as well as much longer view (think decades).  I certainly won't presume to speak on behalf of William, who knows a heckuvalot more about oil price fundamentals than I do.

My concern is more medium term.  Short term - next week - I don't much care about.  Short term is crazy.

What I care more about is what may happen 6 months or 18 months from now.  And also not 18 years from now.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Short term next week, yes. But I don't understand why you need to know prices next week for your job. I can understand long term prices since the rigs want to make money for next couple of years. 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Keep up the good work Tom, I am sure you are an asset to people here, who look for guidance as to where prices are headed next.

[Fantom + 6]

you are the best

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Notice all the news that came out just as Oil found a bottom and reversed. 

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Is-This-The-End-Of-The-Oil-Rally17794.html

We have many other examples, and even lots of analysts predicting the collapse of oil once it hit $67. Like i said many times, you will have hedgefunds and smart traders going long at the top, $76 and shoring at the bottom $67, this explains why many need to close shop after just a couple of months. This is how the market works, and will work for the next millennium.  So why don't people just do the opposite? Because they never know where the top or the bottom is. But somehow they get stuck in the wrong trades, at the bottom and tops.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Well had a nice runup of 150 basis point. We may have some small drop here at $69, so will just let it ride out, and maybe get long at lower prices, call it Greed, call it timing, call it being cautious.

[J.mo + 165]

Can any explanation come to fruition on some of these traders mentalities?? 

 

Trader mentality is interesting. A drop in supplies was expected, price goes down..

Increase in supplies arisises. Price goes up? Lol.

Edited July 18, 2018 by J.mo

[henil + 4]

33 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Well had a nice runup of 150 basis point. We may have some small drop here at $69, so will just let it ride out, and maybe get long at lower prices, call it Greed, call it timing, call it being cautious.

Hey I am seeing WTI at 67.9, are you referring to another symbol? Thanks

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Hmm. You may be right. So what I trade is the futures which is the Oct, or Sep. So if you look at those prices, they are at 

So Sept is at 67.93 and Oct at 66.54 as of this writing.

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.html

The actual price of WTI is now 68.98 

https://www.bloomberg.com/energy

So not sure where you see 67.9, is it maybe the Sept prices for WTI?

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

At this point if I don't see strong up movement, that would could resume the short term bear trend we started at 76. Hei, sometimes you need to get in and out. Especially if you get out at a profit, when you see something wrong, it's not too late. It is easy to get out if you are at a loss. But from the last 2 days of movement, I can see why people in the oil business, don't look at charts, it would be like looking at spaghetti with sauce for them.. So during uncertainties I am not a hero, but stay on the sidelines. Been there done that.

[tsxman + 2]

Today's summary of EIA report is pretty simple to comprehend for us regulars who follow the energy market:

U.S. oil imports were up 1.6mmbbl and refinery utilisation was down a whopping 400kbpd.

I would say that $70-76 should most certainly be in play as it is highly doubtful that U.S. imports will match up for 07/20.

It all comes down to imports and exports now;  the market numbers have to be gauged with proper context.

Distillates are at a decade low seasonally and although on paper gasoline numbers appear to be a little higher, with updated context on demand and also U.S. exports they aren't so high at all.  

The market already had its little sell-off.  U.S. inventories are below the 5-year average and even further below when applying updated variables like pipeline fills.  

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Well. The market had its selloff. But this up move could just be a pause in the selloff. You might call this Fractal Elliot Waves, (can't explain). So Indeed the up from 67.5 to 69 was simply end of wave 4, before wave 5. And therefore my early prediction of 62.5 may still be in play. Wave 3-4, is the hardest wave to trade, it is where if people made money in wave 2-3 the easiest wave, they give it all back in wave 3-4. I was watching an oil trader, lots of his losses was during this downturn, he didn't expect it, but now he is expecting a move up, so he hopes to make his losses back, he sees this a wave 2-3 again. One of us will be right, that is for sure. But some move down from 69.xx I see as a given.

[henil + 4]

49 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Hmm. You may be right. So what I trade is the futures which is the Oct, or Sep. So if you look at those prices, they are at 

So Sept is at 67.93 and Oct at 66.54 as of this writing.

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.html

The actual price of WTI is now 68.98 

https://www.bloomberg.com/energy

So not sure where you see 67.9, is it maybe the Sept prices for WTI?

Hey Trader, looks like you are right i was looking at whatever prices oilprices.com shows, which happens to be the sept prices. Thanks!

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Well. The market had its selloff. But this up move could just be a pause in the selloff. You might call this Fractal Elliot Waves, (can't explain). So Indeed the up from 67.5 to 69 was simply end of wave 4, before wave 5. And therefore my early prediction of 62.5 may still be in play. Wave 3-4, is the hardest wave to trade, it is where if people made money in wave 2-3 the easiest wave, they give it all back in wave 3-4. I was watching an oil trader, lots of his losses was during this downturn, he didn't expect it, but now he is expecting a move up, so he hopes to make his losses back, he sees this a wave 2-3 again. One of us will be right, that is for sure. But some move down from 69.xx I see as a given.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Tom  you got  some serious posts that are based on some good info, keep it up.