Failure To Implement Russian Oil Ban Could Send Oil Crashing To $65

[Mark Sloan + 9]

Several E.U. member states made it plain that they will veto any E.U. proposal to ban Russian oil (or gas) imports. Removal of oil ban ‘fear factor’ may significantly reduce risk premium in crude oil prices. Lack of clear leadership from Germany makes an effective oil embargo a long shot.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Failure-To-Implement-Russian-Oil-Ban-Could-Send-Oil-Crashing-To-65.html

 

[nsdp + 449]

The amount of oil that could reach market is limited by lightering capacity at NOVOROSSIJSK in the Black Sea of 275,000 b/d, Denmark has closed the Kattegat  so no shipments from the Baltic, Rotterdam is closed so no west European loadings and you have ice issues at Murrmansk and Vladivostock.   No tanker captain is going to sail for 10 weeks with no revenue generating cargo Murmansk to India. You can get 500,000 b/d to China by pipeline. So Russia's exports will be rounding errors in OPEC quotas.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

On 5/17/2022 at 4:37 AM, nsdp said:

The amount of oil that could reach market is limited by lightering capacity at NOVOROSSIJSK in the Black Sea of 275,000 b/d, Denmark has closed the Kattegat  so no shipments from the Baltic, Rotterdam is closed so no west European loadings and you have ice issues at Murrmansk and Vladivostock.   No tanker captain is going to sail for 10 weeks with no revenue generating cargo Murmansk to India. You can get 500,000 b/d to China by pipeline. So Russia's exports will be rounding errors in OPEC quotas.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Druzhba_pipeline

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Siberia–Pacific_Ocean_oil_pipeline

[Starschy + 211]

9 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Druzhba_pipeline

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Siberia–Pacific_Ocean_oil_pipeline

Thats nonsens. Fact is that Greek Tankers took 190 Loads in Russia in March/April and delivered to every Port in Europe.

[Starschy + 211]

There is no limitation for delivering Russian Oil to Europe. The closing is discussed for End of 2022 and thats a quite long time.

[nsdp + 449]

For long distance shipments you need a ULCC which holds  10 times what a tanker that can  can operate out of the Black Sea can load. So you need  10 tankers to go to the Med and lighter their cargoes  to the ULCC.   So count each of those as equal to 1/10th of a cargo. A ULCC cab dock at Rotterdam with no problem, It can't go though the Bosporus or the Suez or Panama Canal.   Lines on a map don't tell you the throughput capacity or the size .  You also need to ignore the imaginary lines that aren't built.

Export cargoes are measured in tons. 190  tankers operating out of the Black or Baltic seas would be less than 20 tankers operating out of Rotterdam. Also much of what has loaded is a "dark" cargo .  That means it was loaded with out a buyer, destination or insurance and no  trasnsponder.   If you remember Iran loaded 60 tankers in 2014 and kept them at Kharg Island.

Russian Oil Trade Goes Dark, But Exports Continue

Energy Intelligence initially estimated that Russia's oil exports had contracted by 2.5 million barrels per day — 1.5 million b/d of crude and 1 million b/d of refined products — a number that was later revised upwards to 3 million b/d.

However, as the dust starts to settle, it has become clear that the political and economic backlash against Russia has not triggered a sharp fall in its oil exports — at least for the time being.

Instead, the trade in Russian oil shipped from Baltic and Black Sea ports — totaling close to 2 million b/d — has increasingly gone "dark."

https://www.energnyintel.com/0000017f-92c6-dea0-a7ff-96df2ed80000

A dark cargo is one the exporter puts on the water hoping to find a buyer. No money has changed hands yet. aka "smuggling"

 

Russian Export Outage Holds Steady

https://www.energyintel.com/0000017f-79f4-df49-abff-fff5bd230000