Oil Set for Gains Amid Iran Sanctions, Shrinking Supply

[John Foote + 1,135]

The US can win every battle, quite handily in fact, and completely lose the war. Did it in Iraq, in Vietnam, and know way we can win against a committed Iran. In conflict with escalation the US has to count on much of the world supporting us, and nobody supporting the others. Iran doesn’t attack with masses of armor and planes and ships, it’s asymmetric warefare, and hearts and minds, and US actions pretty much alienate everyone in the region,minus the odd royala d Israel. We forget the military needs to be an absolute last resort, and only if absolutely vital. And we aren’t exactly fighting for democracy here. Bolton got Iraq completely wrong, still thinks Bush43 did the right thing, and gets Iran completely wrong. 

And Iran could take out Rastanura and Abqaiq with their ballistics. That de facto shuts down Saudi’s exports for a good while though the US reply would be devestation. But nobody is going to go pseudo nuclear. 

[Cowpoke + 70]

The Tanker War

Nice historical point of reference for past (1980's) turmoil in the Persian Gulf:

. https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/1988-05/tanker-war

Note: "Iran's use of traditional moored contact mines appears to have begun in May, in waters close to Kuwait. Minefields were later discovered (the hard way) in the shipping channels west of Farsi Island, and eventually in the Gulf of Oman. The mining campaign apparently tapered off or ended in September, following the attack by U. S. helicopters on the Iranian mine-laying landing craft Iran Air. "

"The Iranian sailors captured laying mines in the Persian Gulf were sent back home Saturday amid reports that some of them had requested political asylum". LOL

http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/keyword/iran-ajr

 

 

 

[James Regan + 1,776]

On 8/3/2018 at 10:43 PM, Jan van Eck said:

James, what is your take on that piece of rock Abu Musa? Are there soldiers sitting on it?  Is it a gun platform?  Or is all this so much posturing, the hot air of strutters?  

Jan not sure currently,in the 70s when I was a kid I visited the Mubarak field which was very close to Abu Musa Island,at the time all the grownups on board said it was a no go zone. During 90s it was  equipped with Iranian Anti Shipping missiles and as far as I know probably still is. https://www.tripadvisor.com/Tourism-g1049726-Abu_Musa_Hormozgan_Province-Vacations.html Check out trip advisor, probably tells all lol.... also check out Google earth nothing to hide there although it looks quite military https://www.google.com.br/maps/place/Abu+Musa/@25.8864019,55.0227149,698m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x3e58eeb3871b4b29:0x3fbc316e33dea3d5!8m2!3d25.8797106!4d55.0328017

Its obviously of huge strategic importance and if I was a world leader with an interest in strutting I would probably at least build a golf course on it.....

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

5 minutes ago, James Regan said:

Its obviously of huge strategic importance and if I was a world leader with an interest in strutting I would probably at least build a golf course on it.....

Now that is seriously funny!  And if you pop one off the sixth fairway onto the deck of an oil tanker, it counts as a hole in one!

[SRE + 8]

On 8/2/2018 at 11:37 PM, mthebold said:

That's an interesting video, but I think it overstates the threat from Iran.  There are a couple broad points we should keep in mind: 

1)  When we conduct military operations, we don't attack everything simultaneously; we start with the most important targets and systematically work our way down the list.  At some point, the remaining enemy assets are tactically irrelevant, either from disorganization, fear, or physical inability to engage.  Those targets can be annihilated at leisure. 

2)  The US military has fought every weapon wielded by every type of enemy in every possible climate and geography.  E.g. the Marine Corps has been in active conflict more years than not since it's founding in 1775.  As a result of this extensive experience, it's accumulated a vast body of knowledge and menagerie of special-purpose weapons.  If there's a scenario, the US military has the doctrine and weapons to handle it.  This dramatically decreases the time necessary to resolve problems. 

Given that the strait is less than 500 miles from the nearest airbases, the mine layers could be sunk in <2 hours.  With cruise missiles available, these could be the very first targets.  After that, systematically annihilate their armed forces: anti-air, command and control, anti-ship, surface fleet, submarine, and so on.  Most likely, you wouldn't have to destroy all of them.  Few armies continue fighting once they realize it guarantees death, fanatical statements notwithstanding. 

Iran wouldn't be a challenge; the only question is, "How quickly can the US and allies service available targets and sweep the mines?"  Between air bases, allied assets, a carrier group, and heavy bombers flying in from around the world, I doubt their armed forces would last more than a couple days.  That leaves the mine clearing.  I don't know how long that takes, but if they only have hours to lay them and satellites track the laying, probably not long.  This is a fairly well defined problem. 

All of that assumes Iran would keep fighting past Day 1.  Iran's leaders talk big now, as most inexperienced people do, but my experience is that people change their tune once rounds start flying.  If the leadership doesn't already know they're blustering, they'd figure it out once official comms went silent and all they had were sporadic reports of death and destruction. 

But they could shut down the strait for at least a few days.  Let's be generous and say a few weeks.  The US alone would struggle to make up the difference from our SPR, but we're not the only country with an SPR.  Wouldn't the world cooperate to minimize the disruption - esp. Asian countries that have a lot to lose from high oil prices?  If so, how much price disruption would we really see, and for how long?  Would it really shut down Iran's oil production, or would we take that production when they sued for peace?  Even if we didn't take the oil outright, would their dire straits not give them incentive to keep it flowing?  A few days of war doesn't have to stop the flow of oil.  It seems like the flow of oil would depend what was in America's best interest. 

The threat from Iran is presented as a scary unknown, but once the details are played out, it seems more like a quantifiable risk we've already hedged against.  This is not a WWII existential threat; it's a fundamentally weak country making noise.  An interesting country with many accomplishments to its name, but fundamentally weak nonetheless.  It doesn't seem like much to get excited about.

Your "broad points" and your analysis of the realities of a potential conflict around the strait of Hormuz are excellent. Thank you.