The Federal Reserve and Money...Aspects which are not widely known

Recommended Posts

Usually the Fed make a larger increases before Elections. Meaning before Presidential Elections is between April and July at the latest. This year the same. The next increase will be in 2023 and I think about June.

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites


16 hours ago, Starschy said:

Usually the Fed make a larger increases before Elections. Meaning before Presidential Elections is between April and July at the latest. This year the same. The next increase will be in 2023 and I think about June.

The Fed meets Nov 1st and 2nd.  On the 2nd, they will announce any interest rate hikes (or not).  75 points are expected.

Midterm elections occur Tuesday November 8th.

Edited by Tom Nolan

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

Monday Oct 24 REUTERS

Fed to hike by 75 bps again on Nov. 2, should pause when inflation halves - economists: Reuters poll

BENGALURU (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve will go for its fourth consecutive 75 basis point interest rate hike on Nov. 2, according to economists polled by Reuters, who said the central bank should not pause until inflation falls to around half its current level.

Its most aggressive tightening cycle in decades has brought with it ever bigger recession risks. The survey also showed a median 65% probability of one within a year, up from 45%.

Still, a strong majority of economists, 86 of 90, predicted policymakers would hike the federal funds rate by three quarters of a percentage point to 3.75%-4.00% next week as inflation remains high and unemployment is near pre-pandemic lows.

Results in the poll are in line with interest rate futures pricing. Only four respondents predicted a 50 basis point move.

"The front-loading of policy rate tightening we have seen up to now has been aimed at getting to a positive real fed funds rate at the start of 2023," said Jan Groen, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities, referring to rates adjusted for inflation.

"Instead of a pivot, in our view, the Fed is signaling that they foresee shifting from front-loading up to December, towards more of a more grinding pace of hikes from then onward."

A majority of economists in the Oct. 17-24 poll forecast another 50 basis point hike in December, taking the funds rate to 4.25%-4.50% by end-2022. That matches the Fed's "dot plot" median projection.

The funds rate was expected to peak at 4.50%-4.75% or higher in Q1 2023, according to 49 of 80 economists. But the risks to that terminal rate were skewed to the upside, according to all but one of the 40 who answered an additional question.

Fed officials have begun contemplating when they should slow the pace of rate hikes as they take stock of their impact given it takes many months for any rate move to take effect.  [ARTICLE CONTINUES]

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

Gas Price Crisis Overshadows A Crisis In Oil Prices

By Irina Slav - Oct 25, 2022, 6:00 PM CDT

  • Despite the 30-percent drop in oil price benchmarks, many buying nations are facing a steep bill for their oil imports.
  • The strong dollar isn't just causing trouble for oil buyers such as India and China, but also for European importers.
  • Importing nations might get a boost for their plans to move away from the U.S. dollar and start using their local currencies more.

There has been so much media space dedicated to the gas supply troubles of the European Union and the associated spillover effect for developing economies that another fossil fuel problem has remained relatively unnoticed: oil prices. Oil prices have been on a general decline over the past couple of months, shedding about 30 percent from the peaks reached earlier this year, pressured by expectations of a global economic slowdown.

The slowdown itself has a close causal link with energy prices, more specifically, oil and gas prices. And speaking of oil prices, despite the 30-percent drop in benchmarks, many buying nations are facing a steep bill for their oil imports, which would aggravate the challenge for their economies.

Take India, for instance—one of the world’s biggest oil importers. A recent analysis in the Indian Express detailed that because of the oil price rally from earlier this year, India’s trade deficit for the first half of the year had reached $150 billion and could double to $300 billion for the full year.

This would, in turn, cause a problem with the country’s balance of payments as various parts of the economy slow down due to higher oil prices, not just in India but in the West as well. And speaking of the West, its European part has similar oil price problems to those that India has.

Related: Texas Natural Gas Prices Sink Close To Zero

In a recent article on the troubles of oil-importing nations, Bloomberg noted that Europe was more than just a major importer of natural gas. The continent, and the EU specifically, also imports most of the oil it consumes, meaning it is highly vulnerable to price swings.

All the big European economies, including Germany, Italy, Spain, and France, the report said, depended on imported oil for as much as 90 percent of their consumption. And this means that, like India and China, the EU has a problem with the U.S. dollar.

A rally in the greenback resulting from tighter monetary policies at the Fed contributed significantly to the affordability problem that most oil importers have been struggling with this year. Since most of the oil traded around the world is priced in U.S. dollars, the more expensive the dollar, even if oil prices themselves haven’t changed much, the higher the import bill for this oil would be.

“A stronger dollar is a headwind for oil consumer nations whose currencies are not linked to the greenback,” Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS, told Bloomberg. “Over the last 12 months, oil prices have increased much more in local currency terms.”

This state of affairs might have major implications for the oil markets of tomorrow. They might be markets with a bigger role for local currencies.

China—the world’s largest importer of oil—has been trying to expand the use of its national currency in international trade for years. By a happy coincidence, its BRICS partner and major oil supplier, Russia, is very much on board with the idea of local currencies, especially so after the EU began shooting sanction packages at it following the invasion of Ukraine.

Other developing nations, including India, are also entertaining the idea of replacing the global trade currency with their local currencies in bilateral trade deals. India has even developed a mechanism for international deal settlement in rupees, although it is still paying for Russian oil in U.S. dollars.

This might be an emerging trend worth watching, but how it could play out in the European Union is an entirely different matter. The EU has time and again declared its close alliance with the U.S., especially in energy. 

So, moving away from the greenback for oil trades would probably be as bad of an idea as President Macron’s accusations that the U.S. is employing double standards in having lower gas prices at home than the price of the LNG that U.S. companies sell to Europe.

Yet, with the U.S. dollar’s important role in the affordability of oil amid what is increasingly looking like a global economic slowdown, other importing nations might get a boost for their plans to move away from it and start using their local currencies more.

By Irina Slav for

More Top Reads From

RELATED TO ARTICLE  - Here is a quote from the Federal Reserve...


“…the insatiable foreign demand for our $100 dollar bills. They don’t use them as a medium of exchange overseas. They use them as a store of value. (countries listed)…”

“…a hundred dollar bill costs us 7 cents…in the interim, American commerce and industry doesn’t give them away. We are getting 100 dollars worth of something…Belgium chocolate, French wine…for something that costs us 7 cents. It is not a bad markup…They can have all they want. Almost none never comes back….”

(circa 2006) Gary Franchi interviews Chicago Federal Reserve Bank’s Jerry Nelson.

One of the questions asked was:

“People have often questioned about the Federal Reserve being a private bank or a private corporation.

 Is that in fact true?”

ANSWER: “It is. …We are literally owned by the banks in our district….”




If you watch Corbett Report’s Documentary “Century of Enslavement:  The History of The Federal Reserve” you would find out more about the owners and controllers of money supplies.  -

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting. The US Federal Reserve system is now considered almost the focus of global evil. Yes, it is there that dollars are printed and the very external debt of the United States is increased, to which adherents of the theory of a worldwide conspiracy and the imminent collapse of the existing financial system often like to nod. Despite the numerous myths and rumors surrounding the Fed, it becomes clear that this is not a secret government at all. At the same time, this organization operates according to its own laws. Their activities are under the control of the Senate and the President. It is they who set the policy of action for the Fed. 

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, JaciDivs said:

Their activities are under the control of the Senate and the President. It is they who set the policy of action for the Fed.

Jaci, Actually that is not true.  The Federal Reserve is an independent body.  It is owned by private institutions (the owners of which are not made public).  The Fed will give updates to the U.S. government, but they are not bound to obey government instruction.  No one has ever audited The Federal Reserve. 

In 1910, a group of wealthy and influential elite characters met in secret on Jekyll Island in Georgia.  They devised the plan for The Federal Reserve and for Federal Income Tax.   They snuck this through Congress in 1913 with the help of folks who they had power over.

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

Tuesday and Wednesday - Nov 1 and 2 - The Fed meets

Hopes Of Fed Pivot Fade As U.S. Economy Returns To Growth

By City A.M - Oct 30, 2022, 12:00 PM CDT

  • The U.S. economy has resisted the steep inflation rate hikes surprisingly well.
  • The U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) climbed 2.6 per cent last quarter.
  • European Central Banks are also racing to hike interest rates this autumn.  [Article continues...]


Next Thursday, the Bank of England is expected to raise borrowing costs 75 basis points, the biggest rise in its 25 years of independence. Prices are up 10.1 per cent in the UK, the fastest rise in 40 years.

Today, the European Central Bank (ECB) lifted rates 75 basis points for the second time in a row. Before a rate rise in July, the ECB had not tightened policy for over a decade.

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

On The Mortgage Front

Freddie Mac (OTCMKTS:FMCC) reported the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.08% as of Nov. 10, up from last week when it averaged 6.95%. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.38%, up from last week when it averaged 6.29%. And the 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage averaged 6.06%, up from last week when it averaged 5.95%.

“As the housing market adjusts to rapidly tightening monetary policy, mortgage rates again surpassed seven percent,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “The housing market is the most interest-rate sensitive segment of the economy, and the impact rates have on homebuyers continues to evolve. Home sales have declined significantly and, as we approach year-end, they are not expected to improve.”   ARTICLE CONTINUES (Home Buying)

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

The dollar index steadied above 106 on Thursday, remaining supported after stronger-than-expected US retail sales data clouded the outlook for inflation and indicated that the economy can withstand more rate hikes. Federal Reserve officials also continued to signal a firm hawkish stance, with San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly emphasizing that a pause is “off the table,” while Kansas City Fed President Esther George said that policymakers must be “careful not to stop too soon” on hiking rates and that achieving a soft landing might be difficult. Markets are betting that the central bank will deliver a 50 basis point rate hike in December and a series of 25 basis point increases early next year to bring the policy rate to around 5%. The dollar stabilized against other major currencies, while it gained sharply against emerging Asia currencies.   

Thursday morning 11/17/2022

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

On 6/15/2022 at 8:01 AM, Tom Nolan said:

Most people do not realize that The Federal Reserve Banks are owned by private institutions within their district.  The public is not allowed to know who the owners are.

Most people do not realize that The Federal Reserve was initially created by a secret cabal of rich elite via deceptive maneuvers.  The group gathered secretly on November 22, 1910, then hatched their plan.  During the Christmas season of 1913 after wading through the House and Senate, the Federal Reserve Act (known then as the Currency Bill) was signed into law on December 23rd.  Insidious in its nature, the Federal Reserve Banking system is a debt-based monetary system. which in itself is a mechanism of slavery. 

(The IRS) - The Federal Income Tax was also enacted in 1913.

-- Commercial Banks --

Banks don’t lend reserves. Banks create money out of thin air every time they make a new loan: they credit your bank account with money that never existed. They don’t use reserves in the process.


When you withdraw cash from an ATM you are converting your digital bank deposits into bills, which is transforming an existing form of real-economy money (your bank deposit) into another form of real-economy money (cash).


  Reserves are basically money for the commercial banking system.



Wednesday June 15th - 2pm ET  - The world will see what happens with interest rates by The Fed.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), a committee within the Federal Reserve System, is charged under United States law with overseeing the nation's open market operations. This Federal Reserve committee makes key decisions about interest rates and the growth of the United States money supply.


-  June 2022 - The Federal Reserve started (QT2) Quantitative TIGHTENING on June 1 .



(QE) Quantitative Easing Explained by Alfonso Peccatiello who once was involved with the process.


  The True Reason Why Central Banks Do QE


Pelley: “Where does it come from? Do you just print it?”
Powell: “We print it digitally. So as a Central Bank, we have the ability to create money digitally.’’.

Jerome Powell - ‘‘60 Minutes’’ interview, May 2020

In a famous interview released on May 2020, Jerome Powell stated Central Banks can print money in digital format.
And he is right, they indeed do that when they embark in policies such as QE.

But he forgot to mention that what they print is bank reserves, which is money only for commercial banks and not for us common people.
And that these bank reserves don’t have legal tender, they can’t be used to transact in the real economy and most importantly they never reach the private sector.

A LIST of LINKS to various documentaries, videos and articles concerning MONEY and the ECONOMY - Scroll to the last 10 paragraphs of the article:



Glad to know some people on this sight can see fact from the fiction! 

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

There is currently more outstanding debt in all the World then money to pay it back.

“ When you see blood in the streets, Buy land”

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites



Why Was the Fed Created?

...Before the Fed, the number of nonnational banks was growing steadily, as was their percentage of total bank deposits. By 1896 the number of nonnational banks had grown to 61 percent and their share of deposits to 54 percent; by 1913 those numbers had increased to 71 percent and 57 percent, respectively. Thus, Wall Street power was waning. It was also being diminished by a new trend in which businesses financed growth from profits rather than borrowed funds. Bank interest rates were too high for many ventures.

Then there was the long-standing problem with depositors. They would leave their money with a bank, believing it was available on demand, and the banks would turn around and loan it out. If enough customers lined up to withdraw their money, the bank could only close its doors (or get an exemption from government).

So, from Wall Street’s perspective, there were the problems of competition from nonnational banks, industry’s preference for thrift over debt, and the public’s irritating tendency to panic and run on banks.

To address this situation, four representatives of J.P. Morgan, John D. Rockefeller, and Kuhn, Loeb, along with Senator Nelson Aldrich and assistant secretary of the Treasury A. Piatt Andrew, met secretly at Morgan’s retreat on Jekyll Island, Georgia, in November 1910. The bankers accounted for an estimated one-fourth of the world’s wealth. 

Led by Paul Warburg of Kuhn, Loeb, they devised a banking cartel that was written into law in late 1913. The money powers—Wall Street—sold the plan to the public as a means of controlling the vast power of Wall Street.

How was Wall Street shackled? It wasn’t. By appointing Wall Street bankers to the Federal Reserve Board and to the most important post in the new system, governor of the New York Fed, they increased Wall Street’s influence.

The original manifestation of the Fed included these developments:

  1. The Fed monopolized the issue of all banknotes; national and state banks could only issue deposits, and the deposits had to be redeemable in Fed notes and gold.

  2. All national banks were drafted into the Fed, and their reserves had to be kept as demand deposits at the Fed.

  3. As banks around the country sent their depositors’ gold to the Fed, they received Fed notes in return. Thereafter, when the public made withdrawals, they were handed Fed notes instead of gold coins. The disuse of gold coins not only encouraged inflation, but it also made confiscation easier later on.

  4. With the centralizing of gold and bank reserves, the Fed doubled the inflationary power of the banks by reducing the reserve requirement from 5:1 to 10:1. With more credit available, the banks could lower their interest rates. 

Banks Violate Their Depositors’ Property Rights....

Taken from...

The Fed Is Not "A Good Idea That Became Corrupt": It Always Was Corrupt

Tyler Durden's Photo
by Tyler Durden
Friday, Dec 02, 2022 - 11:31 AM
Edited by Tom Nolan

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

Money-Supply Growth Turns Negative For First Time In 33 Years

Tyler Durden's Photo
by Tyler Durden
Tuesday, Jan 03, 2023 - 12:05 PM

Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

Money supply growth fell again in November, and this time it turned negative for the first time in 33 years. November's drop continues a steep downward trend from the unprecedented highs experienced during much of the past two years. During the thirteen months between April 2020 and April 2021, money supply growth in the United States often climbed above 35 percent year over year, well above even the "high" levels experienced from 2009 to 2013. 


Since then, the money supply growth has slowed quickly, and we're now seeing the first time the money supply has actually contracted since the 1980s. The last time the year-over-year change in the money supply slipped into negative territory was in February of 1989. At that time, negative growth continued for 12 months, finally turning positive again in February of 1990. 

During November 2022, year-over-year (YOY) growth in the money supply was at -0.28 percent. That's down from October's rate of 2.59 percent, and down from November 2021's rate of 6.66 percent. 


The money supply metric used here—the "true" or Rothbard-Salerno money supply measure (TMS)—is the metric developed by Murray Rothbard and Joseph Salerno, and is designed to provide a better measure of money supply fluctuations than M2. The Mises Institute now offers regular updates on this metric and its growth. This measure of the money supply differs from M2 in that it includes Treasury deposits at the Fed (and excludes short-time deposits and retail money funds).

In recent months, M2 growth rates have followed a similar course to TMS growth rates. In November 2022, the M2 growth rate was -0.03 percent. That's down from October's growth rate of 1.25 percent. November's rate was also well down from November 2021's rate of 12.40 percent. 

Money supply growth can often be a helpful measure of economic activity, and an indicator of coming recessions. During periods of economic boom, money supply tends to grow quickly as commercial banks make more loans. Recessions, on the other hand, tend to be preceded by slowing rates of money supply growth. However, money supply growth tends to begin growing again before the onset of recession. 

Another indicator of recession appears in the form of the gap between M2 and TMS. The TMS growth rate typically climbs and becomes larger than the M2 growth rate in the early months of a recession. This occurred in the early months of the 2001 and the 2007–09 recession. A similar pattern appeared before the 2020 recession. 

Notably, this has happened again beginning in May this year as the M2 growth rate fell below the TMS growth rate for the first time since 2020. Put another way, when the difference between M2 and TMS moves from a positive number to a negative number, that's a fairly reliable indicator the economy has entered into recession. We can see this in this graph: 


In the two "false alarms" over the past 30 years, the M2-TMS gap reverted to positive territory fairly quickly. However, when this gap firmly enters negative territory, that is an indicator that the economy is already in recession. The gap has now been negative for 6 of the past 7 months. Moreover, in both September and October, the gap was greater than -1. There is only one case—1998—in more than 30 years during which the gap was greater than -1 and the US not in recession.

Interestingly, this indicator also appears to follow the pattern of yield curve inversion. For example, the 2s/10s yield inversion went negative in all the same periods where the M2-TMS gap pointed to a recession. Moreover, the 2s/10s inversion also fell into negative territory in 1998. This is not surprising because trends in money supply growth have long appeared to be connected to the shape of the yield curve. As Bob Murphy notes in his book Understanding Money Mechanics, a sustained decline in TMS growth often reflects spikes in short-term yields, which can fuel a flattening or inverting yield curve. 


It's not especially a mystery as to why short-term interest rates are headed up fast, and why the money supply is decelerating. Since January of 2022, the Fed has raised the target federal funds rate from .25 percent up to 4.0 percent. 


This means fewer injections of Fed money into the market through open market operations. Moreover, although it has done very little to sizably reduce the size of its portfolio, the Fed has nonetheless stopped adding to its portfolio through Quantitative Easing, and allowed a small amount (about $358 billion out of $8.9 trillion) to roll off. 

It should be emphasized that it is not necessary for money-supply growth to turn negative in order to trigger recession, defaults, and other economic disruptions. With decades marked by the Greenspan put, financial represssion, and other forms of easy money, the Federal Reserve has inflated a number of bubbles and zombie enterprises that now rely on nearly constant infusions of new money to stay afloat. For many of these bubble industries, all that is necessary is a slowing in money-supply growth, brought on by rising interest rates or a confidence crisis. 

Thus, a growth rate in money supply turning negative is not in itself an especially meaningful metric. But the drop into negative territory does help illustrate just how far and how rapidly money-supply growth has fallen in recent months. That is generally a red flag for economic growth and employment. It also serves as just one more indicator that the so-called "soft landing" promised by the Federal Reserve is unlikely to ever be a reality. 

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

Federal Reserve Tells U.S. Banks To Assess Climate-Related Risks

By Irina Slav - Jan 19, 2023, 12:49 AM CST

The Federal Reserve has tasked the largest U.S. lenders to make an assessment of the risks they are vulnerable to in case of an extreme weather event caused by climate change.

The U.S. central bank recently released information about a “pilot climate scenario analysis” that aims to find out what disruptions climate change and the energy transition itself could cause the business world, E&E News reports.

As well as extreme weather events such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires, scenarios that could affect top lenders’ performance also include protests against high-emission but highly profitable businesses in which banks have invested.

The purpose of the exercise, as the Fed calls it, is dual: first, to gauge the banks’ ability to tackle literal, physical damage from, say a hurricane, on its real estate portfolio, and, second, to assess their ability to deal with the financial fallout of such an event that causes financial stress for their customers, compromising their ability to repay their loans.

The lenders that need to submit an assessment of their climate change and transition risks include JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citi, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America. They have until the end of July to complete their assessments and develop a transition scenario for their operations.

Consumer rights advocacy Public Citizen has been quick to criticize the Fed’s plan. According to the organization, as quoted by Politico, the tests are too narrow and use models that rely too much on carbon offsets, which will lead to an underestimation of the risks that need to be assessed.

However, these tests could be seen as the starting pistol for a wave of climate-related disclosures.

Last year, the SEC announced it would introduce rules mandating emission disclosures from all listed companies.

The Treasury Department, meanwhile, is preparing a similar stress test for insurers.

By Irina Slav for

More Top Reads From

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, they printed almost 230 Trillion in total world debt. I am not a big fan of the yearly Davos meetings; these are a few wanting to shape everyone worldwide.

It is not hard to determine who the bank behind these Federal Reserve Banks is; go back to the events of the days when it was formed and look at the few who have the significant fortunes of the days, weeks, and months.

Look at the politics and policies of the day, and it's glaringly who they were.

The sticky part comes in that they are not accountable to any Federal Agency to audit but we're smart enough to call it The Federal Reserve to bring a legitimacy and no accountability.

  • Like 1

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.