Is Europe heading for winter of discontent with extensive gas shortages?

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

2 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Yes, it happens a lot Rasmus

I am only wrong when you prove me wrong. "Democratic majority" against me doesn't count for much,

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

2 hours ago, Wombat One said:

Wrong, wrong, wrong! Seriously now Shrek, I know you Ogre's are a bit dumb and misinformed, but maybe you have not heard of the Canning Basin or Beetaloo basin. Or the Eromanga deeps? Australia has more gas than Russia both onshore and offshore. Maybe not as cheap to extract, which is why they are not considered official "reserves" just yet, but the gas is there in vast quantities. As for the USA, they have barely scratched the surface in Alaska, let alone offshore their coasts. As for Canada, they do not have a single LNG export facility yet, despite the compelling case. But sure, Qatar can sell it's gas first, that makes sense. Iran and Russia can sell to India and China, who cares? Qatar does not need to be a close ally, just a reliable supplier. All I know is that electric vehicles are becoming "mainstream" in the West and are already so in China. Russia gets it's money from oil and it's influence from gas? Will soon have little of either? Fact is, Russia would have become the second largest economy on the planet if it were a democracy. Instead, Australia has a larger economy than Russia despite having less than 1/4 the population. 

Here

https://www.worldometers.info/gas/

Australia is at #27, with 0.4% of total. I was wrong about the USA, which is at #4. First three also no longer at 60%, but at about half.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

3 hours ago, Michael Sanches said:

Wow! There is not a lie you don't love, is there? PPS ranking by country:
( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita )

10. USA = $76,000
14. Taiwan = $69,000
19. Germany = $63,000
21. Australia = $62,000
xx. European Union = $53,000
53. Greece = $36,000
58. Russia = $30,000
yy. US Poverty Level = $13,000

This one

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)#Table

(total, not per capita)

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

19 minutes ago, Wombat One said:

What are 3P Oil & Gas Reserves and Why Are They Important? (evaluateenergy.com)

In a bifurcated world, 3P is very important.

Gas | Australia’s Energy Commodity Resources 2021

This is highly speculative stuff. I can do better than this. For example, is entire Black Sea seafloor covered in methane hydrates

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1875510015303395

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/15567030802463885

Ditto for all the permafrosted swamps. Nobody touched it yet, because it is more expensive than conventional. Cheaper that shale, tight or "undifferentiated" I suppose it is "unconventional", but extractabillity is certain 100%, not "3P"

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

28 minutes ago, Wombat One said:

gdp russia 2022 - Search (bing.com)

australian gdp 2022 - Search (bing.com)

As I was saying, in real money terms, you know, those USD that you need to buy Boeing aircraft and things like oil, there is little difference in the GDP of Australia and Russia? Despite the fact your population is 4 times larger? The average house in Australia has 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 2 living rooms and 2 car garage. Nobody wants to live in an apartment. PPP is designed to make poor countries feel better about their poverty.

PPP is designed to reflect local prices people pay for everyday living. Boeing aircraft are no longer sold to Russia. In a few years, there will be domestic aircraft only, and in a few more, Boeing will be crushed with the crap product they had of late. USSR aircraft industries once had a larger market share than either Boeing or Airbus on their own. You just performed a miracle of resurrection of that industry, which was barely alive. Western currencies, which buy nothing in Russia anymore, are as good as candy wrappers there. Most Europeans live in apartments. It is not specific to Russia. Russia is more than self-sufficient in oil.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

15 minutes ago, Wombat One said:

Rubbles don't even buy toilet paper in 95% of the world?

Where CAN you use them? Cuba?

So far, in the countries immediately bordering Russia (EAC), Turkey, Egypt, Vietnam and UAE. India, Iran and Sri Lanka to follow soon.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

1 hour ago, Wombat One said:

gdp russia 2022 - Search (bing.com)

australian gdp 2022 - Search (bing.com)

As I was saying, in real money terms, you know, those USD that you need to buy Boeing aircraft and things like oil, there is little difference in the GDP of Australia and Russia? Despite the fact your population is 4 times larger? The average house in Australia has 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 2 living rooms and 2 car garage. Nobody wants to live in an apartment. PPP is designed to make poor countries feel better about their poverty.

When wombats turn territorial

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IfNmX1do7Po

(for their favorite sewer :)

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

3 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

It is non-consequential. My main point was that you are normally self-sufficient and don't need Gazprom. That still stands. Ergo, abandoning this relationship of no consequence is somewhat easier for you than for those with enduring deficiency.

look - energy prices are going up in Denmark, too. Even if we are self-sufficient. addionnally Denmark has committed to an EU sharing policy meaning we will hurt as much as Germany. 

 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

10 minutes ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

look - energy prices are going up in Denmark, too. Even if we are self-sufficient. addionnally Denmark has committed to an EU sharing policy meaning we will hurt as much as Germany. 

 

I am not arguing with that. (though in all honesty, I didn't know the sharing policy is a go at all)

My point was that your gas problem is transient, while German gas problem is potentially permanent

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

18 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

My point was that your gas problem is transient, while German gas problem is potentially permanent

I disagree.  

Germany will soon have import capacity to replace NS 1  + 2. Yes, at higher prices. But that pricing issue is one that will face most of the world. And note that once the dust settles and there's sufficient LNG import capacity then global prices should stabilize as Russian supply to say China will displace say Qatar supply to China leaving that supply on the market. i.e. right now the issue is lack of infrastructure. 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

2 hours ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

I disagree.  

Germany will soon have import capacity to replace NS 1  + 2. Yes, at higher prices. But that pricing issue is one that will face most of the world. And note that once the dust settles and there's sufficient LNG import capacity then global prices should stabilize as Russian supply to say China will displace say Qatar supply to China leaving that supply on the market. i.e. right now the issue is lack of infrastructure. 

Your domestic gas is pipelined. Pipeline gas is inherently cheaper than LNG.

Russian LNG is also inherently cheaper than Qatari LNG, if you are up North. Qatar itself would much rather do swaps with the Russians than physically deliver their own LNG. What do you do about that? I think you are simply legislating against the laws of nature here. In this case, against geography.

Edited August 17, 2022 by Andrei Moutchkine

[NickW + 2,714]

17 hours ago, Starschy said:

Because they had short before the conflict 10'000 off it in Storage and the Ukraine doesn't have any more modern ones.

T62 is older than anything Ukraine is fielding or being donated. 

[NickW + 2,714]

13 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

The Iraqi Lion of Babylon tank was a very crappy T72 knockoff, with no composite armor. Some 20 yeas behind yours. Their ammo was even worse. Steel core APFSDS only. 30 years behind you. You only dared to attack after 13 years of "softening" by suffocating sanctions.

Russia is 5th or 6th economy worldwide on PPP basis, competing with Germany.

There is nothing wrong with the Russian doctrine. They only look bad to you because they are fighting such a similar force. Either one would go through a NATO force like butter.

There is not going to be a guerilla war. Ukrainians are snapping out of their support for this vile regime rather quickly.

Yet plenty of videos of drones taking out Russian T72's with 40mm grenades dropped on the turret. 

[NickW + 2,714]

On 8/16/2022 at 10:53 AM, Andrei Moutchkine said:

I don't know what to make of the values given in ppm.

Nitric acid condenses with water at room temperature. (Said acid rain as such) Corrosive means highly reactive. Nitric acid will react with anything organic and turn it into a high explosive. For example, with whatever liquid fuel. "Anti-knock" properties of more expensive petrol is another BS. You need to embrace detonation. It releases an order of magnitude more power from the same fuel than deflagnation.

Did you know that octane numbers of petrol and cetane numbers of diesel count in the opposite directions? The higher octane the fuel has, the less prone it is to detonate = chemically retarded. The higher the cetane number, the more likely it is to detonate = more chemically reactive. So, nitrating a fuel would lower its octane, but boost the cetane number. Plus, add a bit of additional oxidizer. This is what the nitromethane component of the "funny fuel" in American drag racing does. Also causes the cars to spew spectacular flames out of their exhausts.

All of which is completely irrelevant to the issue of air pollution and what people breath in and the damage it does. 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

23 minutes ago, NickW said:

Yet plenty of videos of drones taking out Russian T72's with 40mm grenades dropped on the turret. 

Aha. Show me? I've only seen this mode of attack on infantry.

https://www.quora.com/Can-an-M203-launched-40mm-HEDP-grenade-destroy-a-tank-or-another-armored-vehicle

Edited August 17, 2022 by Andrei Moutchkine

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

11 minutes ago, NickW said:

All of which is completely irrelevant to the issue of air pollution and what people breath in and the damage it does. 

It is perfectly relevant, too. If you make the CO and NOx part of the burn reaction, they won't be any in your exhaust.

[NickW + 2,714]

13 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

It is perfectly relevant, too. If you make the CO and NOx part of the burn reaction, they won't be any in your exhaust.

Higher burn temperature means more NO / NO2

To minimise CO at source you need excess oxygen which means hot flame

Its why lean burn engines without CATS produce a lot of NO2. 

 

[NickW + 2,714]

19 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Aha. Show me? I've only seen this mode of attack on infantry.

https://www.quora.com/Can-an-M203-launched-40mm-HEDP-grenade-destroy-a-tank-or-another-armored-vehicle

I think in many cases they are dropping anti tank RPG's which will go through >400mm of RHA

Ok this one is through the hatch.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1559957547901231104

After this Ukraine will have the best darts team in the world. 

[NickW + 2,714]

On 8/16/2022 at 1:49 PM, Andrei Moutchkine said:

The highest energy users per head are Nordic, with Iceland an undisputed leader.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/energy-consumption-by-country

The Gulf states are only runners-up. (Bahrain is at #3, after Norway at #2) What's up with my dope is better than yours attitude? In both cases, does high per capita energy use correlate to high quality of life and possibly human development.

Energy use per unit of currency a better measure as it helps show efficiency. On that score Japan would score very highly. 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

12 minutes ago, NickW said:

Higher burn temperature means more NO / NO2

To minimise CO at source you need excess oxygen which means hot flame

Its why lean burn engines without CATS produce a lot of NO2. 

 

You are partially correct, but fixing all this falls under optimizing the burn reaction. It is even possible to separate the atmospheric nitrogen and oxygen as needed.

[NickW + 2,714]

Just now, Andrei Moutchkine said:

You are partially correct, but fixing all this falls under optimizing the burn reaction. It is even possible to separate the atmospheric nitrogen and oxygen as needed.

Ok - go pimp your Lada Granta......

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

9 minutes ago, NickW said:

Energy use per unit of currency a better measure as it helps show efficiency. On that score Japan would score very highly. 

Eh? It really wouldn't, because the yen is so small. I think you want this

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.GDP.PUSE.KO.PP.KD?most_recent_value_desc=true

instead. "GDP per unit of energy use"

This shows Lesotho to be the most energy-efficient economy out there.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

17 minutes ago, NickW said:

I think in many cases they are dropping anti tank RPG's which will go through >400mm of RHA

Ok this one is through the hatch.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1559957547901231104

After this Ukraine will have the best darts team in the world. 

They had 8 years of constant practice on Donbass civilians. Having a tank with an aircon cures this.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

10 minutes ago, NickW said:

Ok - go pimp your Lada Granta......

I only know how to do this with a turbine. Piston engines suck donkey nuts.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

1 hour ago, NickW said:

T62 is older than anything Ukraine is fielding or being donated. 

No evidence of those participating in actual combat. Ukraine is fielding a lot of upgraded T64s