Is Europe heading for winter of discontent with extensive gas shortages?

[Blackbag99 + 20]

On 9/29/2022 at 3:46 AM, Tomasz said:

I see some European Union fans trying to take a victory lap on Brexit based on the performance of the Pound - I wonder if they’ve seen the Euro exchange rates lately? All bend the knee to the Dollar.

It’s unquestionably the case that while the overall power of the west is waning as a result of the Ukraine war, American predominance within the western bloc is skyrocketing. America is one of the winners in the short term.

Delay the disasterous effects of inflation by supplanting the currencies of all your allies. Genius!

I guess the question is will it last.

OPEC decision clear shows that the Saudis are not happy. They have appeared to have lost a large amount of market share to Russia in both India & China. KSA clearly looking to pick up more from the EU by reducing prices, and displace the 4m a barrel a day increase in exports of oil products from the US in the last year.

None of this points to a under supply in oil. Even the text of the OPEC agreement seems to suggest that production quota unders are kept, so we might not even see a production cut until late Q1 of 2023.

 

 

 

Edited October 7, 2022 by Blackbag99

[NickW + 2,714]

On 10/6/2022 at 10:01 AM, Rob Plant said:

Hows that 1000KM Russian front line going that you were soooo proud of? Telling us all it was the beginning of the end for Ukraine! LOL they cant run fast enough backwards!

A few years time Ukraine will be offering bulk buy deals on Russian rifles - only dropped once. 

TBF - can't blame the Russian troops - who wants to die in the fields of Ukraine to fulfill Putins wet dream. 

[Tomasz + 1,608]

On 9/29/2022 at 6:02 AM, Tomasz said:

Today Russia  is said to give ultimatum

Peace talk or 2 stage war next month

First stage. You destroy NS so we will finally destroy all critical infrastructure on Ukraine before Winter. Lets Say 10 milion new guest in Europe

Second stage tactical nuclear bomb

WEST TRIED TO BE CHAD SO VIRGIN RUSSIA BECAME BASED AFTER DESTROYING NS

Tit for tat. 

 

Time has past. Moreover attack on Crimea Bridge. 

Sorry but this is critical infrastructure of Russian Federation according to russian law.

Its means in a case a serious attack on teritory of Russia it has a annouced right to answer even with nuclear weapon against AGRESSOR according to official doctrine. 

End of story. 

SO 200-300 missiles as of today is nothing. 

 

[Starschy + 211]

On 10/6/2022 at 11:01 AM, Rob Plant said:

Hows that 1000KM Russian front line going that you were soooo proud of? Telling us all it was the beginning of the end for Ukraine! LOL they cant run fast enough backwards!

That frontline is winning back a lot of short term gains from Ukraine.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

To be honest Putin said that Russia will show what true decomunization of Ukraine looks like.

I think today there was some progress in that direction. You know not what MSM tells you but what was really hit- 8 power plants  built in Soviet Times.

[NickW + 2,714]

1 hour ago, Tomasz said:

To be honest Putin said that Russia will show what true decomunization of Ukraine looks like.

I think today there was some progress in that direction. You know not what MSM tells you but what was really hit- 8 power plants  built in Soviet Times.

Yet despite this Ukraine still has enough surplus electricity to be exporting (net) 700MW as I type. 

Electricity Maps | Live 24/7 CO₂ emissions of electricity consumption

[NickW + 2,714]

4 hours ago, Tomasz said:

Time has past. Moreover attack on Crimea Bridge. 

Sorry but this is critical infrastructure of Russian Federation according to russian law.

Its means in a case a serious attack on teritory of Russia it has a annouced right to answer even with nuclear weapon against AGRESSOR according to official doctrine. 

End of story. 

SO 200-300 missiles as of today is nothing. 

 

Don't be surprised that if Ruzzia goes nuclear on Ukraine, Ukraine will respond with its poor mans sampson plan. 

That involves detonating dirty missiles over Moscow and /  or other Russian cities.

If Russia intends to wipe Ukraine off the map then there is no loss in making several (or more) Russian cities uninhabitable for the next 10,000 years. 

Ukraine has:

The Ballistic / Cruise  Missiles

Plenty of high grade nuclear waste / material.

Even if you shoot them down they still contaminate 1000's of square miles of Russian land. 

If that happens Dobby can stick his Russian Federal Law where the sun doesn't shine. 

 

 

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Type in google

Its called shock&awe.

Who could be such cruel to fight this way?

No it was not USSr or China.

[Mob61 + 2]

26 minutes ago, Tomasz said:

Type in google

Its called shock&awe.

Who could be such cruel to fight this way?

No it was not USSr or China.

Shock & Awe was first use by the ruZZan

First Chechen War

Russia's military strategy in the First Chechen War, and particularly the Battle of Grozny, was described as "shock and awe

[Tomasz + 1,608]

The attack on the Kerch Bridge was Putin's wet dream for his birthday.

From Russia's legal point of view, this is critical infrastructure and a terrorist attack like ISIS.

Now we are opening, for example, the Russian doctrine of the use of nuclear weapons known to all Western countries.

In the competition, who will escalate more this conflict  the US or Russia, in my opinion, Biden will not be able to beat Putin. B

Because Putin points to the official basic document of the Russian state and that someone did against Russia a heinous terrorist attack on the bridge where people died.

So now is time to bomb Ukraine to stone age. Still much better than nuclear bomb according to state oficial document.

Do you remember WMD in Iraq and Colln Powell?

 

Edited October 11, 2022 by Tomasz

[Rob Plant + 2,608]

7 hours ago, Tomasz said:

The attack on the Kerch Bridge was Putin's wet dream for his birthday.

From Russia's legal point of view, this is critical infrastructure and a terrorist attack like ISIS.

Now we are opening, for example, the Russian doctrine of the use of nuclear weapons known to all Western countries.

In the competition, who will escalate more this conflict  the US or Russia, in my opinion, Biden will not be able to beat Putin. B

Because Putin points to the official basic document of the Russian state and that someone did against Russia a heinous terrorist attack on the bridge where people died.

So now is time to bomb Ukraine to stone age. Still much better than nuclear bomb according to state oficial document.

Do you remember WMD in Iraq and Colln Powell?

 

So using targeted bombs aimed at civilians and kids playgrounds is better than bombing some bridge?

Wow you are pretty sick in the head!

"So now is time to bomb Ukraine to stone age."

Yeah because thats really going to solve this crisis isnt it? You are a really fu*ked up guy if thats really what you believe.

I pity you!

Do you think Ukrainians still think of Russians as their brothers and sisters? All that these missile strikes have done is double down on their resolve to fight Putin with every last breath they have, and they will, have no doubt about it!

Putin has made such idiotic choices, he will go down in history as a complete bloodthirsty moron who eventually failed in what he was trying to achieve. I feel sorry for the Russian people as their "leader" is a nut job!

[Rob Plant + 2,608]

8 hours ago, Tomasz said:

The attack on the Kerch Bridge was Putin's wet dream for his birthday.

From Russia's legal point of view, this is critical infrastructure and a terrorist attack like ISIS.

Now we are opening, for example, the Russian doctrine of the use of nuclear weapons known to all Western countries.

In the competition, who will escalate more this conflict  the US or Russia, in my opinion, Biden will not be able to beat Putin. B

Because Putin points to the official basic document of the Russian state and that someone did against Russia a heinous terrorist attack on the bridge where people died.

So now is time to bomb Ukraine to stone age. Still much better than nuclear bomb according to state oficial document.

Do you remember WMD in Iraq and Colln Powell?

 

Russia running out of weapons as it faces 'staggering' numbers of casualties, spy chief says

https://news.sky.com/story/russia-running-out-of-weapons-as-it-faces-staggering-numbers-of-casualties-spy-chief-says-12717702

[notsonice + 1,068]

On 10/10/2022 at 10:40 AM, Tomasz said:

Time has past. Moreover attack on Crimea Bridge. 

Sorry but this is critical infrastructure of Russian Federation according to russian law.

Its means in a case a serious attack on teritory of Russia it has a annouced right to answer even with nuclear weapon against AGRESSOR according to official doctrine. 

End of story. 

SO 200-300 missiles as of today is nothing. 

 

SO 200-300 missiles as of today is nothing. ???

do you enjoy targeting little kids with missiles...

Special place in hell for Putin and his supporters.....plenty of room for you

right to answer even with nuclear weapon against ?????

 

So when you lose you resort to being a terrorist...your comments fit the bill

[TailingsPond + 468]

20 hours ago, NickW said:

Don't be surprised that if Ruzzia goes nuclear on Ukraine, Ukraine will respond with its poor mans sampson plan. 

That involves detonating dirty missiles over Moscow and /  or other Russian cities.

If Russia intends to wipe Ukraine off the map then there is no loss in making several (or more) Russian cities uninhabitable for the next 10,000 years. 

Ukraine has:

The Ballistic / Cruise  Missiles

Plenty of high grade nuclear waste / material.

Even if you shoot them down they still contaminate 1000's of square miles of Russian land. 

If that happens Dobby can stick his Russian Federal Law where the sun doesn't shine. 

 

 

Dirty bombs are not that effective.  Horrible for sure, but won't win you any wars.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirty_bomb

Edited October 11, 2022 by TailingsPond

[NickW + 2,714]

18 hours ago, Tomasz said:

The attack on the Kerch Bridge was Putin's wet dream for his birthday.

From Russia's legal point of view, this is critical infrastructure and a terrorist attack like ISIS.

Now we are opening, for example, the Russian doctrine of the use of nuclear weapons known to all Western countries.

In the competition, who will escalate more this conflict  the US or Russia, in my opinion, Biden will not be able to beat Putin. B

Because Putin points to the official basic document of the Russian state and that someone did against Russia a heinous terrorist attack on the bridge where people died.

So now is time to bomb Ukraine to stone age. Still much better than nuclear bomb according to state oficial document.

Do you remember WMD in Iraq and Colln Powell?

 

You have a severe case of acute whataboutitis

[NickW + 2,714]

53 minutes ago, TailingsPond said:

Dirty bombs are not that effective.  Horrible for sure, but won't win you any wars.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirty_bomb

Hence the reason I called it a poor mans sampson*plan

Bring the whole temple down

[NickW + 2,714]

13 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

So using targeted bombs aimed at civilians and kids playgrounds is better than bombing some bridge?

Wow you are pretty sick in the head!

"So now is time to bomb Ukraine to stone age."

Yeah because thats really going to solve this crisis isnt it? You are a really fu*ked up guy if thats really what you believe.

I pity you!

Do you think Ukrainians still think of Russians as their brothers and sisters? All that these missile strikes have done is double down on their resolve to fight Putin with every last breath they have, and they will, have no doubt about it!

Putin has made such idiotic choices, he will go down in history as a complete bloodthirsty moron who eventually failed in what he was trying to achieve. I feel sorry for the Russian people as their "leader" is a nut job!

I think its time for western countries to offer Ukraine longer range air defence weapons. An obvious example is Patriot which the US has over 1000 systems and is coming towards the end of its service life but is still quite effective. 

Europe has the Aster 15 & 30 missile systems 

UK has CAMM system.

Ukraine has already been supplied with NASAMS and Starstreak which are a big improvement on MANPADS. 

I don't know whether Ukraine can manufacture replacement missiles for its S300 systems 

Edited October 11, 2022 by NickW

[NickW + 2,714]

19 hours ago, Mob61 said:

Shock & Awe was first use by the ruZZan

First Chechen War

Russia's military strategy in the First Chechen War, and particularly the Battle of Grozny, was described as "shock and awe

If that Kerch bridge explosion was a suicide attack it would not surprise me if it was a Chechen. Many deeply hate anything Russian after what they did to Chechnya. Don't be fooled by Kadrovs vodka worshippers. 

[Mob61 + 2]

On 10/11/2022 at 8:31 PM, NickW said:

If that Kerch bridge explosion was a suicide attack it would not surprise me if it was a Chechen. Many deeply hate anything Russian after what they did to Chechnya. Don't be fooled by Kadrovs vodka worshippers. 

I wouldn't be surprise if Russian did this themselves to plant a false flag to gather up support back in Russia.
The only thing is they use too much explosive and done it very well to damaged the bridge.
Only a few would know when the train is coming filled with full of fuel for the bomb to exploded at that time, early in the morning when there is little traffic and only 3 people were killed.

[Mob61 + 2]

On 10/11/2022 at 8:31 PM, NickW said:

If that Kerch bridge explosion was a suicide attack it would not surprise me if it was a Chechen. Many deeply hate anything Russian after what they did to Chechnya. Don't be fooled by Kadrovs vodka worshippers. 

Some Chechens have switched sides and are being trained by the Ukrainian military to fight against Russia.

These Chechens want out of Moscow's control over them and to get rid of Ramzan Kadyrov.
Freedom is the most powerful force, more so than being suppressed by Kadyrov or any other dictatorship.
Kadyrov does not have respect from his people but he rules by fear. Once Putin's Russia can no longer support Kadyrov, he is finished and Chechens will become fully independent and free from Moscow's control

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JxsXAq0tmgk

Edited October 17, 2022 by Mob61

[Blackbag99 + 20]

I am not sure what the war in Ukraine has to do with Nat Gas anymore?

The Russians are supplying zero to the EU, as they have been for the last 4 months.

The outcome is irrelevant!

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

Natural gas futures linked to TTF, Europe's wholesale gas price, were trading around the €115 per megawatt-hour mark, a level not seen since early June, as abundant supplies of LNG, particularly from the US, helped countries fill storage sites ahead of the winter session. Europe's gas storage sites were more than 92% full, and Germany's stockpile rate reached 96% as of October 16th. On top of that, forecasts for a milder winter, with above-normal temperatures during the peak heating season between December and February, could suggest lower heating demand. 

[Starschy + 211]

On 10/11/2022 at 9:31 PM, NickW said:

If that Kerch bridge explosion was a suicide attack it would not surprise me if it was a Chechen. Many deeply hate anything Russian after what they did to Chechnya. Don't be fooled by Kadrovs vodka worshippers. 

No suicide attack for sure. The damage is relativly small  around 100 m of one Track. The Railway tracks are not destroyed and Trains run regular.

[Starschy + 211]

When you think that Ukraine is winning this war - think again:

1. The lost the size of 3 times Switzerland around 125'000 km2
2. The lost 30% of their Power Stations
3. A loss of the largest Nuclear Power Stations with 6 Reactors (Zaporizhzhia)
4. A loss of a very large Coal Power Station in Donetzk (Vuhlehirska Power Station)
5. Loss of 90% of all Military Airfields
6. Lost of 80% of all Military Production  Companies
7. Loss of Atomic Institute in Charkiv
8. Loss of at least 7 Ports 
9. Productions volume is down to 40% of 2019 results
10. Gold reserves are down by at least 12 Billion close to zero

Every time the US spent 500 Mio. short support - you can be sure a few Ukraine Weapon Warehouses are destroyed.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

On 7/28/2022 at 3:40 PM, Andrei Moutchkine said:

 Let's see how well that went in a couple of weeks, shall we? It is time to start subjecting wild predictions like yours to some form of an audit. Aren't all Russians dead by the miracle of Javelin, already? I think we are going to stay, because Kherson is a nice place, and we quite enjoy it there. Case closed.

Ok, you were right, it took a few months. But at least you got the raccoon.