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Is Europe heading for winter of discontent with extensive gas shortages?

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Europe import more coal

As the European gas shortages become more and more acute, the companies in the power sector are being allowed to use coal as a substitute in proportion to the scale of the challenge. The issue can only get worse in the cold winter months ahead, unless the bull is taken by the horns - without beating about the bush as if there was no such a crisis.

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There will be shortage of course. Between 11th July and 21 Nordstream 1 will be stopped for maintenance. That was planned. One reason tor building Northstream 2. The flow will be smaller. There still Turkstream till Hungary open and the pipeline across Belarus and Poland.

In my opinion it will be harder in the South, Balkan and the East Bulgaria, Romania. Poland will be hit too if those Pipeline from Norway don't get certified. There won't be flows from Germany to Poland again. for sure.

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I am not sure that I agree.

Lets start with the basics. Russia only have one place to ditch excessive gas; and that is the Europe. Absolutely I agree that Putin might shoot himself in the foot to pretend he has power, but with his deteriotating economy his space for being a bad news bear (pun intended) is shrinking rapidly.

We can look a EU reserves, roughly 15% of total reserves (Same reserves as August 2021) higher than the previous year.

Exports from the US are expanding and are likely to fill some of the gap.

I am not in the slightest interested in news flows on minor disruption, they happened in 2021, they didn't make the news then.

If I could afford the margin (I can't), I would be selling European gas all day long!

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3 hours ago, Blackbag99 said:

I am not sure that I agree.

Lets start with the basics. Russia only have one place to ditch excessive gas; and that is the Europe. Absolutely I agree that Putin might shoot himself in the foot to pretend he has power, but with his deteriotating economy his space for being a bad news bear (pun intended) is shrinking rapidly.

We can look a EU reserves, roughly 15% of total reserves (Same reserves as August 2021) higher than the previous year.

Exports from the US are expanding and are likely to fill some of the gap.

I am not in the slightest interested in news flows on minor disruption, they happened in 2021, they didn't make the news then.

If I could afford the margin (I can't), I would be selling European gas all day long!

They are rerouting to China as quick as they can. Just how quick that is open to debate, but very likely faster than Europe can switch to other sources.

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On 7/1/2022 at 1:24 PM, Andrei Moutchkine said:

They are rerouting to China as quick as they can. Just how quick that is open to debate, but very likely faster than Europe can switch to other sources.

So you are saying the worlds largest importer of LNG, is no longer the worlds largest import of LNG.

How does that change price if world supply is unchanged?

Simple answer is it doesn't!

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16 hours ago, Blackbag99 said:

So you are saying the worlds largest importer of LNG, is no longer the worlds largest import of LNG.

How does that change price if world supply is unchanged?

Simple answer is it doesn't!

Additional Russian exports to China are to be via pipeline, not as LNG. This is most likely to undercut the LNG prices locally, as they do now for the EU.

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LNG selling Gas from Russia will still be available after End of 2022. At this moment record high Oil sales go from Russia to Europe. This time the European Industry is buying Oil as Gas replacement and reserves.

Russia is delivering LNG to China too. The distance from Sakhalin to China is close. Both ways Sakhalin - Vladivostok by Pipeline

The third large Gas user is inside Russia for Cars

 

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(edited)

On 7/1/2022 at 5:24 AM, Andrei Moutchkine said:

They are rerouting to China as quick as they can. Just how quick that is open to debate, but very likely faster than Europe can switch to other sources.

Actually they aren't rerouting any gas to China. The eastern and western gas pipelines are completely separate. Financing for building the west to east  pipeline hasn't even been announced though they have hopes of getting it running by 2031.

Edited by Jay McKinsey
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(edited)

7 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Actually they aren't rerouting any gas to China. The eastern and western gas pipelines are completely separate. Financing for building the west to east  pipeline hasn't even been announced though they have hopes of getting it running by 2031.

https://www.gem.wiki/Novosibirsk-Barnaul_Gas_Pipeline

I quote

Gas fields: Nadym and Urengoy fields, Kovyktinskoye field starting 2022

Nadym and Urengoy are West Siberia (previously supplying Europe) Kovyktinskoye is Far East, supplying Power of Siberia. From there, there is

https://www.gem.wiki/Barnaul-Biysk-Gorno-Altaysk_Gas_Pipeline

Which is a stone throw away from Xinjiang. You tell me what this means. This be the "Altai route" of Power of Siberia 2, which is supposedly defunct.

Meanwhile, on the Chinese side

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West–East_Gas_Pipeline

A world-record beating pipeline network from nowhere to nowhere?

Every-pipeline-leads-to-Shanghai-The-wes

Edited by Andrei Moutchkine

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7 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Actually they aren't rerouting any gas to China. The eastern and western gas pipelines are completely separate. Financing for building the west to east  pipeline hasn't even been announced though they have hopes of getting it running by 2031.

You are welcome to speculate on how much of this is still dotted lines. Also note that they forgot to include network sections owned by somebody who is not Gazprom (who's only got a monopoly on export pipelines) This is how you see nothing going on on Yamal and Taymyr.

20191203-gazprom-siberian-pipeline-map.j

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18 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

https://www.gem.wiki/Novosibirsk-Barnaul_Gas_Pipeline

I quote

Gas fields: Nadym and Urengoy fields, Kovyktinskoye field starting 2022

031.Nadym and Urengoy are West Siberia (previously supplying Europe) Kovyktinskoye is Far East, supplying Power of Siberia. From there, there is

https://www.gem.wiki/Barnaul-Biysk-Gorno-Altaysk_Gas_Pipeline

Which is a stone throw away from Xinjiang. You tell me what this means. This be the "Altai route" of Power of Siberia 2, which is supposedly defunct.

None of this is planned to link to China before 2031 at the earliest. Altai is dead the plan now is to take POS 2 through Mongolia.

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Just now, Jay McKinsey said:

None of this is planned to link to China before 2031 at the earliest. Altai is dead the plan now is to take POS 2 through Mongolia.

I know, but somehow I don't believe this. Not that the two routes are mutually exclusive, but take a look at the update I just posted on how the NG distribution backbone looks on the Chinese side. It pretty much looks like Altai is already there, as well as a connection to West Siberian fields supplying Europe! Maybe they are being secretive due to Altai mountains being sacred to a bunch of indigenous people? (and apparently, even to the Turks) But, you tell me. I have utmost confidence in your considerable pathfinder skills, Jay.

 

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11 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

You are welcome to speculate on how much of this is still dotted lines. Also note that they forgot to include network sections owned by somebody who is not Gazprom (who's only got a monopoly on export pipelines) This is how you see nothing going on on Yamal and Taymyr.

20191203-gazprom-siberian-pipeline-map.j

According to Upstream it looked like this a few months ago:

b5e45aa12527b0a4d3f7a53925df9bec

https://www.upstreamonline.com/lng/gazprom-shuts-down-pipeline-suspends-gas-exports-to-china/2-1-1192609

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(edited)

8 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Yes, but it seems idiotic and does not explain appearance of Kovitkiskoe supply in Gorno-Altaisk expected this year. Ditto for the activities on the Chinese side. That is, unless they are building some kind of gas pipeline ring around Tibet together? Dotted line to Yamal might as well say "there be dragons"

Barnaul-Gorno-Altaisk are already connected to West Siberia, since like 2006, as it turns out. So, the disconnect between the Western and Eastern pipeline network is a lot less of a deal than everybody thinks. (If still existent at all)

Edited by Andrei Moutchkine

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51 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

https://www.gem.wiki/Novosibirsk-Barnaul_Gas_Pipeline

I quote

Gas fields: Nadym and Urengoy fields, Kovyktinskoye field starting 2022

Nadym and Urengoy are West Siberia (previously supplying Europe) Kovyktinskoye is Far East, supplying Power of Siberia. From there, there is

https://www.gem.wiki/Barnaul-Biysk-Gorno-Altaysk_Gas_Pipeline

Which is a stone throw away from Xinjiang. You tell me what this means. This be the "Altai route" of Power of Siberia 2, which is supposedly defunct.

Meanwhile, on the Chinese side

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West–East_Gas_Pipeline

A world-record beating pipeline network from nowhere to nowhere?

Every-pipeline-leads-to-Shanghai-The-wes

The west east pipelines were built years ago and are in apparent full use. They don't have excess capacity to handle 50BCM that POS 2 will bring in. That is why they rerouted to Mongolia, the total new pipe distance is shorter although it cuts through virgin routes.

 

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(edited)

7 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

The west east pipelines were built years ago and are in apparent full use. They don't have excess capacity to handle 50BCM that POS 2 will bring in. That is why they rerouted to Mongolia, the total new pipe distance is shorter although it cuts through virgin routes.

 

Odd... It is the biggest trunk the Chinese have. Hardly much local demand in Xinjiang. There is nothing connecting to Mongolia yet?

West-East-Gas-Pipeline-Project-route-map

Edited by Andrei Moutchkine

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5 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Odd... It is the biggest trunk the Chinese have. There is nothing connecting to Mongolia yet?

West-East-Gas-Pipeline-Project-route-map

Pipe 1 is small and is sourced from the Tarim oil field in China and the big Pipes 2 and 3 are supplied by a pipe coming out of Turkmenistan.

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21 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Pipe 1 is small and is sourced from the Tarim oil field in China and the big Pipes 2 and 3 are supplied by a pipe coming out of Turkmenistan.

Turkmenistan is very flaky.

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(edited)

44 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Turkmenistan is very flaky.

If they don't ship the gas they don't get paid and it appears that China National Petroleum owns and runs the gas field and the pipe. https://www.cnpc.com.cn/en/CentralAsia/CentralAsia_index.shtml

I think you need to accept that redirecting gas to China from the western fields via pipeline isn't happening any time soon. They might try LNG via the Northern Sea Route this summer but Yamal to China in winter is a long, long ways. And Europe will not handle the insurance after Dec. 31.

June 13 (Reuters) - Spot-market rates for liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers this week set annual records as traders bid up available vessels to meet rising global demand for the chilled gas, according to brokers.

Soaring demand for LNG and buyers shunning Russian cargoes and vessels over its invasion of Ukraine have led to more long-term charters, limiting the supply of vessels to the spot market, said shipbroker and LNG consultancy Poten & Partners.

 
 

Spot rates for transporting 160,000 cubic meters of LNG in the Atlantic Basin is $100,000 per day, and $85,000 per day for Asia, or the East-of-Suez, cargoes, said Poten's head of business intelligence Jason Feer.

Edited by Jay McKinsey
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On 6/22/2022 at 1:18 PM, hemanthaa@mail.com said:

Europe import more coal

As the European gas shortages become more and more acute, the companies in the power sector are being allowed to use coal as a substitute in proportion to the scale of the challenge. The issue can only get worse in the cold winter months ahead, unless the bull is taken by the horns - without beating about the bush as if there was no such a crisis.

For more on this, please read here:

 

Too expensive to mine, too expensive to move. Full stop end of story!

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On 6/23/2022 at 6:37 PM, Starschy said:

There will be shortage of course. Between 11th July and 21 Nordstream 1 will be stopped for maintenance. That was planned. One reason tor building Northstream 2. The flow will be smaller. There still Turkstream till Hungary open and the pipeline across Belarus and Poland.

In my opinion it will be harder in the South, Balkan and the East Bulgaria, Romania. Poland will be hit too if those Pipeline from Norway don't get certified. There won't be flows from Germany to Poland again. for sure.

As it is every year!

Of course EU inventories are 5 weeks ahead of where they were last year. 45 pence a therm then 300 pence a therm now.

I heard a currency trader (Failed economist as all fx traders are) ask if Putin will cut of gas to the EU. Its the wrong question, will Putin mothball and shut down 35% of his gas production as he has no storage worth mentioning. If he moves to another market it is a who cares moment, it merely displaces other suppliers that then must find a home.

Russian oil production has increased since the war in Ukraine started, he has little storage capacity of that too, world supply has increased. 

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(edited)

Well what would you expect after freezing about 300 billions of Russian currency reserves?

Because it's a casus belli not only for shutting NG to Europe before winter but also to start major war.

So what would you expect from Putin?

If you think you can play such games with nuclear power it's simply dangerous.

What response you expect?

Yeap you have some contracts for NG as Europe .But really?

 

Edited by Tomasz

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19 minutes ago, Tomasz said:

Well what would you expect after freezing about 300 billions of Russian currency reserves?

Because it's a casus belli not only for shutting NG to Europe before winter but also to start major war.

So what would you expect from Putin?

If you think you can play such games with nuclear power then you send a lot of weapons to Ukraine 

What response you expect?

Yeap you have some contracts for NG .Really?

 

Russia has no way to export all that gas except to Europe so they will have to shut in almost all of that production. Those wells will all be dead by the time they get a pipeline built to China in 10 years. Putin making threats with nuclear weapons instantly makes him an enemy of humanity. Europe has as much right to freeze the currency as Russia has the right to invade Ukraine. 

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You need to decide whether you want to buy Russian oil and NG or. not. You can pay Putin or pay very high oil and NG prices. Violenti not fit iniuria.

 

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If we talk only about NG

Only Germany 

Quote

 

A German economist Jens Ehrhardt confirmed that Berlin will incur €1 trillion in the cost of replacing Russian pipeline gas with an expansion of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which requires the construction of a special infrastructure for that.

The economist said in an interview published by the newspaper “Handelsblatt”: “My view in the political struggle with Russia, is that in Germany and Europe we do ourselves a lot of harm by imposing sanctions on Russia.”

“Germany, which lacks innovation, relies heavily on traditional industries such as the automobile industry,” Ehrhardt added.

He continued, “In the next four years, we will not be able to replace cheap Russian gas at all, and expanding the capacity to receive liquefied gas, it will cost us one trillion euros, according to some estimates.”

He pointed out that “the so-called green revolution will lead to higher production costs … and industries in Germany will become more expensive and therefore less competitive.”

He expressed his confidence that “the volume of German exports, which has increased by 50% since the adoption of the euro, will now begin to decline, and this will hurt our high export share more than other countries… We in Germany will go through very difficult times.”

The German expert criticized the US Federal Reserve’s measures aimed at combating inflation.

“I think the US Fed is making a big mistake right now, and it’s probably the biggest mistake since World War II,” he said.

He expected a repeat of the collapse of the German stock index Dax, which fell by about 12,500 points last March.

 

 

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