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Is Europe heading for winter of discontent with extensive gas shortages?

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On 9/3/2022 at 1:01 PM, Boat said:

Why do Russians need to die. Give up the Ukraine and go home. The reason your no longer the USSR is 1920 reasoning. Basically idiots politically along with much of the world. The woke are moving on without you and the rest of the war mongering idiots. It’s all about a clean planet and providing a path for our children. That needs intelligence mixed with capitalism. Globalism is all about not screwing up the planet. Get with the program. Eh?

Probably you should read first Ukas 117 from Ukraine. War declaration to Russia 21st March 2021.

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Its simple. European Union froze 300 bilion dollars. Discuss price caps both on russian oil and  russian gas. 

Sorry but we can discuss whether some sanctions should be put on Russia. Probably yes.

But if you try to put SUCH sanctions on your biggest energy supplier simply please dont be suprised there is a countreaction. 

Its still I would say measured counterreaction as about 120 milion cubic meters and all oil is still flowing.

 

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(edited)

Another question is if you want to buy gas from Nord Stream I maybe it would be a good move to at least not put sanctions that made repairing turbines unavailable or simply very difficcult?

Because its not really clear for me whether Russia or Siemens simple dont want to repair them or are they unable to repair them because of sanctions put by Canada and other western countries. You can here several version of the story whats the real problem with turbines for Nord Stream. You can also of course open NS II instead of not working NS I - I think its not really important whether you get 55 bilion cubic meters by NS I or NS II.

 

Edited by Tomasz

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I would say Zoltan Pozsar said it all

By not selling NG worth 20 bilion dollars Russia has a major leverage of survival of part of german industry worth about 2 bilion dollars. Its bigger leverage than even Leman Brothers bankrupcy in 2008.

Most powerful argument for future negotation how to end conflict between West and Russia over Ukraine.

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(edited)

HEAD OF UKRAINE GAS TRANSIT OPERATOR TELLS REUTERS UKRAINE COULD TECHNICALLY SUBSTITUTE FULL CAPACITY OF NORD STREAM 1 VIA UKRAINE'S SUDZHA ENTRY POINT

So Europe will pay Putin billions for Russian gas transiting through Ukraine with Russia using proceeds to fight Ukraine?

And Russia paying Ukraine for the gas transit which uses the proceeds to fight Russia.

Edited by Tomasz
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NORD STREAM: Some nuance required on today's reporting. Some claim Russia will only restart Nord Stream if sanctions are lifted. What the Kremlin is saying is that maintenance can't be done due to sanctions and that it could if there were no sanctions. Not the same thing.

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14 hours ago, Tomasz said:

HEAD OF UKRAINE GAS TRANSIT OPERATOR TELLS REUTERS UKRAINE COULD TECHNICALLY SUBSTITUTE FULL CAPACITY OF NORD STREAM 1 VIA UKRAINE'S SUDZHA ENTRY POINT

So Europe will pay Putin billions for Russian gas transiting through Ukraine with Russia using proceeds to fight Ukraine?

And Russia paying Ukraine for the gas transit which uses the proceeds to fight Russia.

Haha yeah the world is a fu*ked up place right now!

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7 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Haha yeah the world is a fu*ked up place right now!

Well hopefully things will change abruptly. You now have a new prime minister, it is being said she has the qualities of Margret Thatcher. Just as Trump ran MAGA she will put the UK best interest's first..and that is sorely needed right now. History has written how Regan&Thatcher changed the world, brought order..established a cohesive world society. Let us all hope that discipline and order returns

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8 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Well hopefully things will change abruptly. You now have a new prime minister, it is being said she has the qualities of Margret Thatcher. Just as Trump ran MAGA she will put the UK best interest's first..and that is sorely needed right now. History has written how Regan&Thatcher changed the world, brought order..established a cohesive world society. Let us all hope that discipline and order returns

Seriously?

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15 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

You now have a new prime minister, it is being said she has the qualities of Margret Thatcher.

Liz Truss is very right wing like Thatcher and she has appointed a very right wing cabinet. However before any comparisons can be made lets see what actions she takes before we judge. It is highly likely she will be in the job only 18 months as we will have a general election then and after Boris's numerous cock ups its not likely the Tories will get back in power.

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(edited)

16 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Well hopefully things will change abruptly. You now have a new prime minister, it is being said she has the qualities of Margret Thatcher. Just as Trump ran MAGA she will put the UK best interest's first..and that is sorely needed right now. History has written how Regan&Thatcher changed the world, brought order..established a cohesive world society. Let us all hope that discipline and order returns

There is not a lot going for the UK in the foreseeable future, and I am not sure what difference Liz Truss can make.  She seems to be prioritizing diversity and gender equality in her cabinet appointments - no White men in top posts.

https://youtu.be/qw87uW4hcKQ

Edited by Hotone

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30 minutes ago, Hotone said:

There is not a lot going for the UK in the foreseeable future, and I am not sure what difference Liz Truss can make.  She seems to be prioritizing diversity and gender equality in her cabinet appointments - no White men in top posts.

https://youtu.be/qw87uW4hcKQ

In her defence its mainly because the majority of white men in the Tory parts are half wits, not because she's overly prioritising gender equality or diversity. UK politicians in the main are utterly useless.

We do have our own NG with new North Sea fields coming on stream this year so thats a big win, and we only buy LNG to sell to the EU.

We also have the largest wind farm in the world which is cheap energy. Lots of positives going forward compared to our near neighbours.

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On 9/5/2022 at 9:22 PM, Tomasz said:

NORD STREAM: Some nuance required on today's reporting. Some claim Russia will only restart Nord Stream if sanctions are lifted. What the Kremlin is saying is that maintenance can't be done due to sanctions and that it could if there were no sanctions. Not the same thing.

If the latter is true then Russia needs Western expertise badly and it is only a matter of time before they come crawling... 

What do you think ? 

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3 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

In her defence its mainly because the majority of white men in the Tory parts are half wits, not because she's overly prioritising gender equality or diversity. UK politicians in the main are utterly useless.

We do have our own NG with new North Sea fields coming on stream this year so thats a big win, and we only buy LNG to sell to the EU.

We also have the largest wind farm in the world which is cheap energy. Lots of positives going forward compared to our near neighbours.

You may be right that the UK is better off than your neighbours.  However, that's a depressing commentary of Europe's predicament.  Sorry to pop your bubble, but at last count, the UK imports 35% of its energy needs and self sufficiency (never mind earning export income) is many years away.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-10702803/UKs-energy-production-fell-lowest-level-50-years-year.html

https://www.statista.com/topics/4938/energy-imports-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/

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(edited)

1 hour ago, Hotone said:

You may be right that the UK is better off than your neighbours.  However, that's a depressing commentary of Europe's predicament.

what predicament?

This is clearly hurting. But at some point you have to stance. I am not blindly pro-American. But what is happening in Ukraine is simply barbaric. Should policies have different 30 years ago to avoid this. Probably. But it doesn't mean that what is happening in Ukraine is right. 

I for one am happy to wear a sweater this winter if I need to, to be able to take a stance against Russias actions in Ukraine. In 1-2 years time Russia wont be able to weaponize NG anymore. 

Edited by Rasmus Jorgensen
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(edited)

1 hour ago, Hotone said:

You may be right that the UK is better off than your neighbours.  However, that's a depressing commentary of Europe's predicament.  Sorry to pop your bubble, but at last count, the UK imports 35% of its energy needs and self sufficiency (never mind earning export income) is many years away.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-10702803/UKs-energy-production-fell-lowest-level-50-years-year.html

https://www.statista.com/topics/4938/energy-imports-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/

Yeah we do import that from Norway predominantly.

We now have the North Sea Link (1.4GW interconnector) where we can buy power from Norway's hydro and when they need more they buy from the UK's wind power, (as I type Norway are using 1.13GW). we have 8 interconnectors that can supply 8.4GW of power if needed, or we can sell to those connected.

With the new gas field operational since March with phase 2 round the corner they will ramp up production and that will make us pretty much self sufficient especially with loads of renewable projects underway which will produce green hydrogen which we will be mixing (15-20%) into the NG for heating and cooking further reducing the need for NG.

https://www.airswift.com/blog/offshore-wind-energy-projects-uk

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1092555/hydrogen-strategy-update-to-the-market-july-2022.pdf

Renewables made up 28.1% of all powergen in the UK last year and that will increase dramatically

https://grid.iamkate.com/

Your article is from April before any data had come from the new gas field.

We do buy and sell OZ LNG though as we already import enough for our needs.

As Rasmus says if we have to have a couple of years of pain to get the desired result then thats fine by us.

Its OK my bubble isnt popped as you may not be aware of all that is currently happening in the UK right now.

 

Edited by Rob Plant
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On 9/4/2022 at 11:28 PM, Tomasz said:

But if you try to put SUCH sanctions on your biggest energy supplier simply please dont be suprised there is a countreaction. 

I would like for all it to stop. Within a few years Russia looses the power that this gives. 

Wait and see. Energy conservation will reduce energy consumption much more than most expect. And then what for your beloved Russia? Only one real client - China. How do think they will treat Russia? 

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(edited)

 

1 hour ago, Rob Plant said:

Renewables made up 28.1% of all powergen in the UK last year and that will increase dramatically

A strong argument for renewables. 

Another thing - look at how public opinion is changing towards nuclear. Maybe something good will come from this crisis. Tomasz and others underestimate what the freeworld can do when it needs to. Just look at how quickly we developed vaccines against covid

Edited by Rasmus Jorgensen
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8 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Liz Truss is very right wing like Thatcher and she has appointed a very right wing cabinet. However before any comparisons can be made lets see what actions she takes before we judge. It is highly likely she will be in the job only 18 months as we will have a general election then and after Boris's numerous cock ups its not likely the Tories will get back in power.

Have a read Mr. Plant, a thought process of a village idiot. 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/apr/08/margaret-thatcher-hugo-young

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15 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Have a read Mr. Plant, a thought process of a village idiot. 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/apr/08/margaret-thatcher-hugo-young

Thatcher was a divisive figure, loathed and detested by many and adored by others in equal number.

What cannot be questioned is her strength as a leader and her steadfast will to follow through on her convictions.

A leader such as this is needed right now and time will tell if anyone is up to the job. I somehow doubt it.

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On 8/27/2022 at 8:02 PM, Andrei Moutchkine said:

You profess values, but don't really have them anymore. Russia is the last bastion of European values.

I meant the economic integration, anyway. Because, geography? Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok thing? Except, it is going to be Asia now.

Yes, I agree. Vladivostok will be in Chinese hands soon.

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On 9/7/2022 at 3:15 AM, Rob Plant said:

In her defence its mainly because the majority of white men in the Tory parts are half wits, not because she's overly prioritising gender equality or diversity. UK politicians in the main are utterly useless.

We do have our own NG with new North Sea fields coming on stream this year so thats a big win, and we only buy LNG to sell to the EU.

We also have the largest wind farm in the world which is cheap energy. Lots of positives going forward compared to our near neighbours.

You were doing quite well in your post until the last part.  Wind MAY be cheaper in the long run, (especially in the North Sea/Irish Sea if one can figure out how to STORE power even if it is giant NG filled salt caverns) but in the SHORT term, it is VASTLY more expensive.  In fact, it is far more expensive than onshore wind even with 2/3 cf.

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9 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

You were doing quite well in your post until the last part.  Wind MAY be cheaper in the long run, (especially in the North Sea/Irish Sea if one can figure out how to STORE power even if it is giant NG filled salt caverns) but in the SHORT term, it is VASTLY more expensive.  In fact, it is far more expensive than onshore wind even with 2/3 cf.

Yes thats true but I was speaking about the North Sea wind farms which as you say will likely be cheaper in the long run.

We just dont have the land mass you have in the US for much onshore wind so its the best we can do without being an eyesore for everyone.

Until the energy crisis all the investment was in renewables, now we are seeing investment back into oil & gas and also nuclear which is long overdue.

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(edited)

13 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

You were doing quite well in your post until the last part.  Wind MAY be cheaper in the long run, (especially in the North Sea/Irish Sea if one can figure out how to STORE power even if it is giant NG filled salt caverns) but in the SHORT term, it is VASTLY more expensive.  In fact, it is far more expensive than onshore wind even with 2/3 cf.

if one can figure out how to STORE power ???

 

it is called taking the excess electricity from renewables and using it to create hydrogen gas......The electrolyzers are now under construction  in the UK, Europe Union, US , China ... all over the place and you will see many in production in 2023 and onwards...and yes the hyrdogen created will be cheaper than NG today in Europe.

 

Enjoy

Edited by notsonice
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4 minutes ago, notsonice said:

if one can figure out how to STORE power ???

 

it is called taking the excess electricity from renewables and using it to create hydrogen gas......The electrolyzerss are now under construction both in the UK, Europe Union, US , China ... all over the place and you will see many in production in 2023 and onwards...and yes the hyrdogen created will be cheaper than NG today in Europe.

 

Enjoy

UK's hydrogen strategy

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1092555/hydrogen-strategy-update-to-the-market-july-2022.pdf

 

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