hemanthaa@mail.com

Is Europe heading for winter of discontent with extensive gas shortages?

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1 hour ago, RichieRich216 said:

So much for the Greenies ending the use of fossil fuels! The EU and especially Germany under that bitch Merkel was warned; nobody seems to take the fact that history tends to repeat itself.

Come winter with little sun and frozen wind farms; they will be back to burning wood.

Unlike Texas they winterize their turbines. They don't freeze.

This past winter wind in Germany was just a tad less than coal and way more than natural gas.

image.thumb.png.45c2458f778f4206cb2d5b389d681239.png

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economic-Sectors-Enterprises/Energy/Production/_node.html;jsessionid=43C35BE9286DFAB5E00EBB35972C14ED.live722#sprg265704

 

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On 7/7/2022 at 4:18 AM, Jay McKinsey said:

In 2023, the EIA forecasts U.S. crude production to increase further 13.0 million b/d which translates to record- high production on an annual average basis. According to the EIA, most of the U.S. crude oil production is WTI type crude oil with API gravity between 40 and 45 degrees. This is significant for the WTI benchmark, as it underscores the similarity in quality between the new oil production and the WTI pricing reference. https://www.cmegroup.com/articles/whitepapers/growing-relevance-of-us-domestic-crude-oil-grades.html

This table shows production by API Category. WTI is defined as oil with an API of approximately 40-42 and you can see that is what we produce the most of. Some WTI contracts go as low as 37 and as high as 44.

image.thumb.png.4e2083c7facf53595248f0553801a8d3.png

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/production/xls/api-history.xlsx

 

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image.thumb.png.79adba9ef55a1dc9ea4c3acbf613a721.png

u.s.tight_oil_production.jpg

 

Here are our oil imports vs domestic production, 1/3 rd of our gross total oil is imported.

image.png.24eef95a74df94032104b4b0c7c27a87.png

Here are our imports of oil by country: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_epc0_im0_mbbl_a.htm

Last year 62% of imports from Canada, 10% Mexico, 5% Saudi, 3% Russia, etc.

We are a net exporter of both diesel and kerosene with no oil from Russia this past quarter:

image.png.aa9efc8c7056ab5ab1f093a334256269.png

Domestic Production

image.png.12ea45f743bdfc9325e0784017b43914.png

image.png.e8fadfb227f71c7995bc2bdab0451b5e.png

Imports

image.png.a29cdb0c6b4b3db4ebb4299fdb0c9fb7.png

Exports

image.png.d58c1be89386aaa48294ed488d5a698a.png

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_dcus_nus_4.htm

I post all of that information repeatedly every year for over 4 years. Some Foreigners and rednecks are just piss poor at reading charts. Most have left the site because they can’t back their own lies. But yea, the US oil information is available in easy to read formats. Why there is any argument over numbers is beyond my comprehension. But then I was not raised to lie or glorify war or the taking of land. I am woke. I am of the breed that thinks we’re all in this together. Except for those who choose to die because of idiocy. Propaganda and those that spread it are of bad seed.

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3 hours ago, Boat said:

I post all of that information repeatedly every year for over 4 years. Some Foreigners and rednecks are just piss poor at reading charts. Most have left the site because they can’t back their own lies. But yea, the US oil information is available in easy to read formats. Why there is any argument over numbers is beyond my comprehension. But then I was not raised to lie or glorify war or the taking of land. I am woke. I am of the breed that thinks we’re all in this together. Except for those who choose to die because of idiocy. Propaganda and those that spread it are of bad seed.

I am a foreign redneck!

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18 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

I am a foreign redneck!

So you're piss poor at reading charts according to Boat!

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48 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

So you're piss poor at reading charts according to Boat!

Doubly so!

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11 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Unlike Texas they winterize their turbines. They don't freeze.

This past winter wind in Germany was just a tad less than coal and way more than natural gas.

image.thumb.png.45c2458f778f4206cb2d5b389d681239.png

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economic-Sectors-Enterprises/Energy/Production/_node.html;jsessionid=43C35BE9286DFAB5E00EBB35972C14ED.live722#sprg265704

 

Then please explain why the German Industry Is freeking out, along with the German people.

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Sorry you have to decide.

Economic war with Russia or truce.

For the time being Russia is NOT really  cutting any oil production (10.7 million barrels in June) and it's only starting to cut NG exports to Europe.

Its not even about wheat.

Yes that's true Russia put classic naval blockade in Odessa.

But main problem is that Ukraine put about 1000 maritime bombs and first someone need to clear water from this mess to start shipping wheat.

Is it Putin who force you to print $ or euros  like mad for last 15 years?

Because that's main reason for inflation - fiat money and never ending QE.

 

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2 minutes ago, RichieRich216 said:

Then please explain why the German Industry Is freeking out, along with the German people.

Because coal is at record high prices,  gas is used for direct heating as well as 10% of their electricity and and they are being idiots and shutting down their nuclear plants. It will take several years to see results from the accelerated renewable build out. They would be in even worse shape if they didn't have all of the low cost renewables they have.

German lawmakers back plan to expand renewable energy

German lawmakers on Thursday approved a major package of reforms aimed at boosting the production of renewable power, as Chancellor Olaf Scholz warned that the country has for too long relied on energy supplies from Russia

It recently pledged to rapidly accelerate the installation of sun and wind power facilities, setting a target of generating 80% of Germany's gross electricity use from renewable energy by 2030 — almost double the share it had last year — and cutting greenhouse gas emissions from all sources to “net zero” by 2045.

“If we want to keep energy affordable in the long term, if we want to reconcile supply security and climate protection, then this is only possible with renewable energies,” said Scholz. “That’s why we need to kick the expansion of renewables into high gear now.”

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(edited)

Having a cheaper currency is only an advantage in trade if that nation has adequate supplies of cheap energy.

In plain English? You can't make sh*t if you have no gas.

This lesson, long-ago forgotten by today's western senior policymakers, is being re-learned in real time.

Germany, the workshop of Europe is screwed with this madness.

The Euro without the might of Germany is screwed.

Destruction by design - that’s what it looks like to me

Edited by Tomasz

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(edited)

Do I understand correctly that a large number of commentators and analysts  hoped for a scenario in which the West imposes sanctions on Russia, freezes funds, prohibits paying in rubles (temporarily less, with what effect ...) and supplies weapons to Ukraine , and Russia is silent and immediately becomes poorer in the eyes, and if this scenario does not come true, then immediately expressions of indignation that how can we do that and Russia is limiting NG to Europe.

Well to be honest such thinking  did not even run around any contact with reality

Edited by Tomasz

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German Company Würth, Screws and many other products and tools is in trouble.

The Company in short 83000 Worker's, about 20 Billion sales.

The Company produces as example 100 reds of kinds of screws hardened ones around the Globe. Those hardened need heat treatment with Gas or electricity. Gas is 3 times cheaper as electricity. For that electricity part the need a new tool (oven) costs about 1 Mio. but delivery is in 12 Months. Gas is 12 Mio. Kilowatt per year. It means serious Business.

https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/unternehmen/wuerth-chef-warnt-teilemangel-erschwert-gassparen-18172847.html

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18 hours ago, Tomasz said:

Do I understand correctly that a large number of commentators and analysts  hoped for a scenario in which the West imposes sanctions on Russia, freezes funds, prohibits paying in rubles (temporarily less, with what effect ...) and supplies weapons to Ukraine , and Russia is silent. 

When the German Industry goes down countries like Poland, France, Switzerland, Scandinavia are in deep trouble. No to mention those tiny Baltic States. The Sanctions backfire since day 1. Weapon delivery have been closed for at least 6 Months from Central Europe. There aren't any available. Those old Sowjet Weapons got Ukraine.

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On 7/13/2022 at 7:47 PM, Tomasz said:

Do I understand correctly that a large number of commentators and analysts  hoped for a scenario in which the West imposes sanctions on Russia, freezes funds, prohibits paying in rubles (temporarily less, with what effect ...) and supplies weapons to Ukraine , and Russia is silent and immediately becomes poorer in the eyes, and if this scenario does not come true, then immediately expressions of indignation that how can we do that and Russia is limiting NG to Europe.

Well to be honest such thinking  did not even run around any contact with reality

That’s what happens when you go to war and kill people and take land. There were new rules after WWII. Countries gave up their colonies. Trade amongst each other grew nations while war destroyed nations. Putin and Russia are square yellow buss slow. They chose self destruction. 
 

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On 6/22/2022 at 1:18 PM, hemanthaa@mail.com said:

Europe import more coal

As the European gas shortages become more and more acute, the companies in the power sector are being allowed to use coal as a substitute in proportion to the scale of the challenge. The issue can only get worse in the cold winter months ahead, unless the bull is taken by the horns - without beating about the bush as if there was no such a crisis.

For more on this, please read here:

 

Are they? You have been reading too much news and not enough data. Coal generated power in Europe is largely stable!

So the shutdown to the Nordstream 1 was expected to have flow effects on EU storage. Yet again flows to storage are well above normal!

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On 7/4/2022 at 4:07 AM, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Additional Russian exports to China are to be via pipeline, not as LNG. This is most likely to undercut the LNG prices locally, as they do now for the EU.

Let us know when new pipelines are in place and who will own them. Will they also reach the Stans? Wouldn't that mean a lot more competition for Russia? 

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(edited)

10 hours ago, Ron Wagner said:

Let us know when new pipelines are in place and who will own them. Will they also reach the Stans? Wouldn't that mean a lot more competition for Russia? 

They are already pipelines connecting the Stans. Stans much prefer dealing with the Chinese directly instead of going through Russia. You can safely expect more Stan-China pipelines in the future. Kazachstan's Tokaev has some grand scheme involving shipping oil over the Caspian, but it probably does not work. Anyhow, it looks like he's behaving again

https://astanatimes.com/2022/07/russian-court-lifts-suspension-on-caspian-pipeline-consortium/

(as in not joining your sections anymore) Otherwise, the Stans hate dealing with China, too. Sucks to be landlocked. This story is about

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caspian_Pipeline_Consortium

Which is apparently the only Russian oil export pipeline not fully owned by

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transneft

Which does for oil what Gazprom does for gas, except that it is not a listed public company, but is completely state owned. Remember Khodorkovsky? (once, the richest Russian oligarch) Pu busted his kneecaps for trying to "privatize" it into his pocket. No politics, just business. Very important dissident leader today :)

UPDATE: Sorry, I see Transneft is listed now.

Edited by Andrei Moutchkine

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(edited)

That's for sure 150%.

At this time

- German Government is buying 30% of Uniper Stocks for ensuring gas supply in the Winter

- French Government is buying 100% of EDF  Electric de France with all Nuclear Power Stations

  An EDF Crash would be a disaster of magnitude proportion in Europe

- Polish Government will a Fusion of their 2 largest Oil Companies. With splits for Hungary Mol and Saudi Aramco Companies

Edited by Starschy

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Disposable gas weapon

Quote

 

Yuri Barsukov on reduced supplies via Nord Stream

Another reduction in supplies via Nord Stream, coupled with the anecdotal situation around the turbine for the Portovaya compressor station, should probably dispel any doubts from an unbiased observer about the real intentions of the Russian authorities. It is quite clear that Gazprom's main goal for the next three months is to prevent the Europeans from filling up their underground storage facilities in anticipation of winter.

As soon as it became clear that the 60% reduction in Nord Stream supplies already made did not reach the goal, Gazprom decided to reduce them further. In my opinion, we should expect that if the EU, as a result of herculean efforts, manages to buy more LNG in August and reduce consumption by carving out a few billion cubic meters to send to reserves, gas supplies through Nord Stream may stop altogether. Then - what an irony - the main route for gas supplies to Europe will again, like 15 years ago, be Ukraine, only the volumes will be six to seven times less.

If the plan works, Europe will approach November with the understanding that cutting off Russian gas will not only bring much of its industry to a halt, but will have a direct and immediate impact on the quality of life of ordinary Europeans. What political goals Russia wants to achieve by creating such prerequisites for dialogue is a question beyond my professional competence. Why the shutdown of gas for the EU is framed in the genre of technological buffoonery, and not direct sanctions on the models demonstrated by the West, is an interesting question, but generally of secondary importance.

For me, the key question is different. In March-April, Western countries adopted sanctions against Russia, which were intended to stop a significant, if not most, part of the Russian economy and directly affect the quality of life of ordinary Russians. It was assumed that the resulting effects would force the political leadership of the Russian Federation to change its approach to the Ukrainian crisis, relations with the West and a number of other issues of utmost importance to Moscow.

It is already clear that this way of doing things has not served its purpose, and sanctions have not been as effective as expected in general. Should we assume that by giving Europe a full-scale energy crisis, Russia will achieve greater success? If so, what are these predictions based on? If light and heat disappear in Berlin in the winter (God forbid), will this create a stronger basis for a productive dialogue with the German authorities or its inhabitants?

Everyone can answer these questions for himself. It seems to me that the threat of shutting off gas, while remaining eventual, would help much more in advancing the Russian foreign policy agenda than real empty pipes.

 

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5480266?from=doc_vrez

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This will be the turning point if the EUROPEAN UNION has it in them to stand against war aggression since World War Two, or will they crumble and allow History to repeat itself!

If they falter, Putin will run amok throughout the continent.

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(edited)

1 hour ago, RichieRich216 said:

This will be the turning point if the EUROPEAN UNION has it in them to stand against war aggression since World War Two, or will they crumble and allow History to repeat itself!

If they falter, Putin will run amok throughout the continent.

Please explain this "history" of yours.  Members of the EU started the major wars, they certainly were not against war aggression.

Russia was on our side!

Edited by TailingsPond

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2 hours ago, TailingsPond said:

Please explain this "history" of yours.  Members of the EU started the major wars, they certainly were not against war aggression.

Russia was on our side!

Patton was right in 1945; We had everything we needed on the Continent and should have moved against the CCCP then and saved multiple trillions of dollars.

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1 hour ago, RichieRich216 said:

Patton was right in 1945; We had everything we needed on the Continent and should have moved against the CCCP then and saved multiple trillions of dollars.

One problem - you would have gotten your asses kicked.

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5 hours ago, RichieRich216 said:

This will be the turning point if the EUROPEAN UNION has it in them to stand against war aggression since World War Two, or will they crumble and allow History to repeat itself!

If they falter, Putin will run amok throughout the continent.

Hello? USA hasn't been at peace for a single day since WWII. Not one day! Quite, unlike Russia.

It is also not entirely obvious how exactly the interethnic strife left behind in a wake of the Soviet breakdown suppose to apply to the rest of the continent? What's in for Russia in attacking, say, Belgium? Collecting their chocolate?

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4 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Hello? USA hasn't been at peace for a single day since WWII. Not one day! Quite, unlike Russia.

It is also not entirely obvious how exactly the interethnic strife left behind in a wake of the Soviet breakdown suppose to apply to the rest of the continent? What's in for Russia in attacking, say, Belgium? Collecting their chocolate?

We may not be at peace because we can't sit back when free people are being Slaughtered, Unlike Russia, we don't build colonies, but as a whole, we will stand for others!
 

Live with it!

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