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Australian power prices go insane

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On 7/14/2022 at 10:34 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

Australia 'on track' to generate half its electricity from renewable sources by 2025, report finds

 
Posted Mon 11 Jul 2022 at 12:57pmMonday 11 Jul 2022 at 12:57pm, updated Mon 11 Jul 2022 at 5:41pmMonday 11 Jul 2022 at 5:41pm
Aerial view of rows of solar panels on red soil from directly above.
Solar is seen as the leading contender to decarbonise global energy systems.(ABC News: Michael Franchi)

Australia is on track to generate half its electricity needs from renewable sources within three years, according to a report highlighting the extraordinary pace of change underway in the country's energy system.

Key points:

  • The Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering says the country's renewable energy share will rise to 69 per cent by 2030
  • The academy is calling for changes to help guide and coordinate massive investments needed to transition away from fossil fuels
  • It comes as amid upheaval in the eastern states' power and gas industries, which have been hit hard by soaring prices and fears of supply shortages
 

In what it described as a snapshot of the industry, the Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering (AATSE) found renewable energy adoption was galloping ahead as wind and solar power became cheaper.

The group, which is comprised of technical experts, said renewable energy was "tracking towards" 50 per cent of Australia's electricity generation in 2025, a share that was expected to rise to 69 per cent by 2030.

It also suggested Australia's electricity networks would be capable of running on 100 per cent green energy for periods at a time by the middle of the decade.

Time for simple math. 

Aussie annual power consumption: 213 million MWh.

Installed solar: 16 GW = 4 GW actual output. = 35 million MWh annual output. 

Hmm.... No. They'll just end up with Germany's situation. 

Installed wind is presently only 7.7 GW. This is such a joke. 

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(edited)

2 hours ago, KeyboardWarrior said:

Time for simple math. 

Aussie annual power consumption: 213 million MWh.

Installed solar: 16 GW = 4 GW actual output. = 35 million MWh annual output. 

Hmm.... No. They'll just end up with Germany's situation. 

Installed wind is presently only 7.7 GW. This is such a joke. 

Time for using real numbers.

Wind produced 28K GWh over the last year with a 12.6% share.

Solar did better at 29K GWh and a 13.1% share.

Combined that is 25.7% of total electricity production in Australia. Do you think 25% market share is a joke?

image.png.8ec57a3d166e0b46b75052cb5f3deccc.png

https://opennem.org.au/energy/au/?range=1y&interval=1w

Hydro adds another 7% share for a renewables total of 33%! 50% isn't far off.

image.thumb.png.fa5294043b7a9dc0721b86ed9c8813af.png

Edited by Jay McKinsey

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On 7/23/2022 at 1:26 AM, TailingsPond said:

Coal is dirty; coal is no longer cheap; coal plants are increasingly unreliable.

3 strikes you're out!

The Chinese still research into better coal plants

https://www.americanprogress.org/article/everything-think-know-coal-china-wrong/

mostly ultra-supercritical (running hotter = higher efficiency)

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6 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Time for using real numbers.

Wind produced 28K GWh over the last year with a 12.6% share.

Solar did better at 29K GWh and a 13.1% share.

Combined that is 25.7% of total electricity production in Australia. Do you think 25% market share is a joke?

image.png.8ec57a3d166e0b46b75052cb5f3deccc.png

https://opennem.org.au/energy/au/?range=1y&interval=1w

Hydro adds another 7% share for a renewables total of 33%! 50% isn't far off.

image.thumb.png.fa5294043b7a9dc0721b86ed9c8813af.png

33% is pretty far off. You need to take hydroelectric off the percentage because nobody here says hydro is bad. 

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(edited)

On 7/24/2022 at 12:38 AM, markslawson said:

 no one ever said that coal plants can always put out full power. Of course they can't.

 "In essence, academics are FINALLY starting to realize that wind droughts are an issue with intermittent systems and studying them."

Your words... what are the non-intermittent systems?

Laughable.  "No one ever said, except you and many others."

 

intermittent

Adjective

Stopping and starting, occurring, or presenting at intervals; coming after a particular time span.

 

Edited by TailingsPond

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On 7/21/2022 at 7:51 PM, markslawson said:

I just meant its got a fire place. When did houses stop having fire places? probably from the 1960s or so .. the house I'm in was built brick in 1950. Although there are plenty of timber houses around brick seems more common in Aus than America. Don't know why? Maybe Melbourne (where I live) has a clay sub soil, and there are major brown coal fields out to the east to provide energy to fire the clay but that's just a guess..  

Fireplaces are a relic and not very efficient. They add a lot to the cost of a home and people can't afford to buy wood. Anyone that depends on wood heat should have a good wood stove and find a free wood source or own a lot of trees. It is best to just cut branches off of certain types of trees and let them grow new ones. Or grow certain trees that are fast growing like aspen etc. They send new sprouts out all over. If you have no affordable wood then you can buy a wood pellet stove. Better yet use a natural gas stove and open your window half an inch for fresh air flow. They also burn propane as an alternative. 

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1 hour ago, Ron Wagner said:

Fireplaces are a relic and not very efficient. They add a lot to the cost of a home and people can't afford to buy wood. Anyone that depends on wood heat should have a good wood stove and find a free wood source or own a lot of trees. It is best to just cut branches off of certain types of trees and let them grow new ones. Or grow certain trees that are fast growing like aspen etc. They send new sprouts out all over. If you have no affordable wood then you can buy a wood pellet stove. Better yet use a natural gas stove and open your window half an inch for fresh air flow. They also burn propane as an alternative. 

What is wrong with gas central heating (other than cost very recently)?

Also Ground source heat pumps and air source heat pumps!

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3 hours ago, Ron Wagner said:

Fireplaces are a relic and not very efficient. They add a lot to the cost of a home and people can't afford to buy wood. Anyone that depends on wood heat should have a good wood stove and find a free wood source or own a lot of trees. It is best to just cut branches off of certain types of trees and let them grow new ones. Or grow certain trees that are fast growing like aspen etc. They send new sprouts out all over. If you have no affordable wood then you can buy a wood pellet stove. Better yet use a natural gas stove and open your window half an inch for fresh air flow. They also burn propane as an alternative. 

If you get a fireplace in every one of your home's rooms, you get to call it an "Edwardian mansion" :)

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4 hours ago, Ron Wagner said:

Fireplaces are a relic and not very efficient. They add a lot to the cost of a home and people can't afford to buy wood. Anyone that depends on wood heat should have a good wood stove and find a free wood source or own a lot of trees. It is best to just cut branches off of certain types of trees and let them grow new ones. Or grow certain trees that are fast growing like aspen etc. They send new sprouts out all over. If you have no affordable wood then you can buy a wood pellet stove. Better yet use a natural gas stove and open your window half an inch for fresh air flow. They also burn propane as an alternative. 

ROFL....Wood is ~free in today's world.  Heck, you can sign up for them to DELIVER it to your driveway in a pile.  Yea, you will have to split it and tidy things up, but FREE.  Sure, you can figure out ways to spend more money.  I have never paid for firewood other than in my sweat. 

Not efficient?  Try 95% + Does require a double burning stove with water jacket and an insulated hot water storage tank.  Does both heating for house and domestic water supply.  The old versions built in Europe for hundreds of years using nothing but Brick instead of a hot water jacket/tank are essentially 100% efficient.  Built in the center of homes/buildings.

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15 hours ago, KeyboardWarrior said:

33% is pretty far off. You need to take hydroelectric off the percentage because nobody here says hydro is bad. 

No, hydro is a renewable and absolutely counts for reaching 50% renewables in the next few years.

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15 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

ROFL....Wood is ~free in today's world.  Heck, you can sign up for them to DELIVER it to your driveway in a pile.  Yea, you will have to split it and tidy things up, but FREE.  Sure, you can figure out ways to spend more money.  I have never paid for firewood other than in my sweat. 

Not efficient?  Try 95% + Does require a double burning stove with water jacket and an insulated hot water storage tank.  Does both heating for house and domestic water supply.  The old versions built in Europe for hundreds of years using nothing but Brick instead of a hot water jacket/tank are essentially 100% efficient.  Built in the center of homes/buildings.

95% of what, exactly? Burning wet firewood is mostly boiling water away.

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(edited)

16 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

 

Not efficient?  Try 95% + Does require a double burning stove with water jacket and an insulated hot water storage tank.  Does both heating for house and domestic water supply.  The old versions built in Europe for hundreds of years using nothing but Brick instead of a hot water jacket/tank are essentially 100% efficient.  Built in the center of homes/buildings.

FYI makers of nice wood stoves say 70 - 80%.  Insulation performance has nothing to do with furnace efficiency... if you had a perfectly insulated home the furnace efficiency could be very low and you would stay warm.  Conversely, you could have a high efficiency furnace in a home with all the windows open and be cold.

https://www.drufire.com/int/essential-info/wood-burning-stoves-and-fires-en/efficiency-and-capacity-wood-burning-fire

Edited by TailingsPond

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16 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

 The old versions built in Europe for hundreds of years using nothing but Brick instead of a hot water jacket/tank are essentially 100% efficient. 

Yeah, no heat leaves the chimney... give your head a shake.

 

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1 hour ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

95% of what, exactly? Burning wet firewood is mostly boiling water away.

You could, oh I don't know, look up standard moisture content of dried wood.  But hey, that would require a TINY bit of work on your part...

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1 hour ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

You could, oh I don't know, look up standard moisture content of dried wood.  But hey, that would require a TINY bit of work on your part...

Dried by lying around outside? Good 20%, with something like 12% being the peak theoretical value, unless heat + vacuum are involved. Knock yourself out

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wood_drying

The DIN+ "Europellet" got 6% moisture, which is less than many an anthracite coal and also burns hotter. You absolutely cannot get bulk wood this dry, you need to grid it to a fine dust, which also happens to be a major EX hazard. This is the driest wood I am aware of, as it contains 100% original softwood material, yet is a manufactured product which requires a very large amount of heat and mechanical energy to produce. Which means another problem easiest dealt with by outsourcing it in the direction of Russia, where most of the required softwood also happens to be at right now.

Also, for reasons somewhat beyond the current scope of our conversation, you shouldn't really expect more than 50% efficiency from any contraption which isn't reversible. Which only works with some kind of closed loop.

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1 hour ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Dried by lying around outside? Good 20%, with something like 12% being the peak theoretical value, unless heat + vacuum are involved. Knock yourself out

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wood_drying

The DIN+ "Europellet" got 6% moisture, which is less than many an anthracite coal and also burns hotter. You absolutely cannot get bulk wood this dry, you need to grid it to a fine dust, which also happens to be a major EX hazard. This is the driest wood I am aware of, as it contains 100% original softwood material, yet is a manufactured product which requires a very large amount of heat and mechanical energy to produce. Which means another problem easiest dealt with by outsourcing it in the direction of Russia, where most of the required softwood also happens to be at right now.

Also, for reasons somewhat beyond the current scope of our conversation, you shouldn't really expect more than 50% efficiency from any contraption which isn't reversible. Which only works with some kind of closed loop.

Outside drying hits same drying percentage as kiln dried.  ALL wood, even wood pellets, return to ambient moisture content of 9% or thereabouts regardless of what you do to it. 

Moisture + CO2 = what again if temp is low enough?  Creosote which then gets burned again in 2nd chamber.  Outlet flu temp of a fully efficient burner is no hotter than you can stick your hand into.  ~40C and then only because you do not wish to put a fan on it.  If you put a fan on it then sub 30C outlet is easily possible depending on your hot water tank temperature of course. 

Your Europellet(not sure what that is), but I'll bet that is for electricity production where surface area is more important for total heat flow and attaining a higher Thot.  When heating your home you do not need the Thot high,  Or it is like pellet stoves here in the USA where they are wanting that extra surface area for more oxygen and clean burning in cheap crappy single stage fireboxs.

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21 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Outside drying hits same drying percentage as kiln dried.  ALL wood, even wood pellets, return to ambient moisture content of 9% or thereabouts regardless of what you do to it. 

Moisture + CO2 = what again if temp is low enough?  Creosote which then gets burned again in 2nd chamber.  Outlet flu temp of a fully efficient burner is no hotter than you can stick your hand into.  ~40C and then only because you do not wish to put a fan on it.  If you put a fan on it then sub 30C outlet is easily possible depending on your hot water tank temperature of course. 

Your Europellet(not sure what that is), but I'll bet that is for electricity production where surface area is more important for total heat flow and attaining a higher Thot.  When heating your home you do not need the Thot high,  Or it is like pellet stoves here in the USA where they are wanting that extra surface area for more oxygen and clean burning in cheap crappy single stage fireboxs.

Sorry, I don't believe that for a second. Did you look at the Wiki article I cited? All the sacred formulas the lumberjack sciences use temperature as the primary input. They say, the coolest running softwood drying kiln starts at 115 °C. Which is, notably, reliably over the water boiling point. Otherwise, you'll achieve jack due to atmospheric humidity. Mine is 61% right now, despite there also being 25°C and sunny outside. Not much of a drying effect...

You've got significant amounts of creosote in the "firewood" you foud? Probably old railroad tie slippers. Put them back where you found them, before it is too late!

Europellets be these

https://www.dincertco.de/din-certco/en/main-navigation/products-and-services/certification-of-products/fuels/wood-pellets-for-central-heating-boilers/

A secret weapon of a crafty German peasant. Usually costs half as much as heating oil for the same amount of heat energy. Little do they know where those actually come from :)

I am pretty sure they do not go back to 9% so easily. Residual lignite polymerizes and forms some kind of elastomer / surface seal. This is why they glue together so well, despite containing nothing but very dry wood dust. Happens when they extrude them under high pressure. They also burn up without barely any smoke or ash. Yes, the industrial customers would grid those back into dry dust. Hypothetically, it could be a plug-in replacement for coal that gets much cleaner flue, but they usually go for even cheaper pellets that burn hotter but also containing ash and smoke generating additives. Adding wood bark for example would do the trick (containing phenols) Those pellets are called "industrial" because they do not fulfill the retail standard.

For domestic purposes, it does not get any better than the whole pellet. Check out the negligible amount of ash they leave. So, the burn is very clean.

Sorry, I don't get the argument with water tank temperature. Any water boiling apparatus needs to achieve at least base supercritical to get any efficient. This be 373°C,at 220 bar. There, you'd be starting to pull away from the internal combustion efficiency-wise, I reckon. Still 20-ish percentile.

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8 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Sorry, I don't believe that for a second. Did you look at the Wiki article I cited? All the sacred formulas the lumberjack sciences use temperature as the primary input. They say, the coolest running softwood drying kiln starts at 115 °C. Which is, notably, reliably over the water boiling point. Otherwise, you'll achieve jack due to atmospheric humidity. Mine is 61% right now, despite there also being 25°C and sunny outside. Not much of a drying effect...

You've got significant amounts of creosote in the "firewood" you foud? Probably old railroad tie slippers. Put them back where you found them, before it is too late!

Europellets be these

https://www.dincertco.de/din-certco/en/main-navigation/products-and-services/certification-of-products/fuels/wood-pellets-for-central-heating-boilers/

A secret weapon of a crafty German peasant. Usually costs half as much as heating oil for the same amount of heat energy. Little do they know where those actually come from :)

I am pretty sure they do not go back to 9% so easily. Residual lignite polymerizes and forms some kind of elastomer / surface seal. This is why they glue together so well, despite containing nothing but very dry wood dust. Happens when they extrude them under high pressure. They also burn up without barely any smoke or ash. Yes, the industrial customers would grid those back into dry dust. Hypothetically, it could be a plug-in replacement for coal that gets much cleaner flue, but they usually go for even cheaper pellets that burn hotter but also containing ash and smoke generating additives. Adding wood bark for example would do the trick (containing phenols) Those pellets are called "industrial" because they do not fulfill the retail standard.

For domestic purposes, it does not get any better than the whole pellet. Check out the negligible amount of ash they leave. So, the burn is very clean.

Sorry, I don't get the argument with water tank temperature. Any water boiling apparatus needs to achieve at least base supercritical to get any efficient. This be 373°C,at 220 bar. There, you'd be starting to pull away from the internal combustion efficiency-wise, I reckon. Still 20-ish percentile.

1) You know nothing about wood apparently as you have never used it and

2) Yes, wood dries naturally down to ~10% without a kiln.  Takes a year sometimes longer if the wood has more natural oils. 

3) Pellets START at ~6%, but then increase in moisture content with age and end up same place as firewood of same species.

4) No Pellets do not produce less ash unless you are not properly burning your firewood.  If smoke out top = dumping wood out the chimney.  Wood is wood--> Get a double burning fireplace with water jacket --> you can put your HAND over the chimney pipe just as you can on a NG whole house furnace or NG Hot water tank vent pipe. 

4) If you can't figure out how a hot water tank works... Uh... Ok,

I knew you were a Socialist, but also science illiterate... No, we are not boiling water... 🙄

 

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On 7/26/2022 at 3:42 AM, Rob Plant said:

What is wrong with gas central heating (other than cost very recently)?

Also Ground source heat pumps and air source heat pumps!

Nothing aside from the initial expense which is beyond most families budgets. That is why it is not usually used. I am all for it though. Also building partially under soil  as  in a walkout home built on a hill or with a sod roof. Many variations and other architectural methods can be used. 

We have a small home that is very well insulated. Lately I have been only running the air conditioning at night when it is cooler. I get it down to 68 at night and let it climb up to 78. If it gets above that I turn it back on. We have a lot of ceiling fans also. 

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(edited)

On 7/27/2022 at 8:40 PM, footeab@yahoo.com said:

1) You know nothing about wood apparently as you have never used it and

2) Yes, wood dries naturally down to ~10% without a kiln.  Takes a year sometimes longer if the wood has more natural oils. 

3) Pellets START at ~6%, but then increase in moisture content with age and end up same place as firewood of same species.

4) No Pellets do not produce less ash unless you are not properly burning your firewood.  If smoke out top = dumping wood out the chimney.  Wood is wood--> Get a double burning fireplace with water jacket --> you can put your HAND over the chimney pipe just as you can on a NG whole house furnace or NG Hot water tank vent pipe. 

4) If you can't figure out how a hot water tank works... Uh... Ok,

I knew you were a Socialist, but also science illiterate... No, we are not boiling water... 🙄

 

Well, I've got some wood right here for you, pal :)

No, it really doesn't. Also WITH a kiln. You'll need a kiln + vacuum to get bulk wood to go that low.

What age? Nobody stores pellets for longer than one heating season. If you store them properly, they remain bone-dry

DIN+ produces <1% ash content.  Fireplace? Water jacket? The German word for a pellet oven is "Vergaser" which unfortunately translates to "carburetor" most places, but should really be "wood gas generator" It does pyrolysis, turning the carbonaceous fuels into producer gas first.

Low heat = low efficiency. In the world of Carnots, delta t is king. The best hot water tank is a Dewar.

I am not a socialist, but I grew up in the USSR, and it was a childhood like any other. Conventional. Not at all like in your agitprop.

 

Edited by Andrei Moutchkine
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On 7/26/2022 at 6:42 AM, footeab@yahoo.com said:

ROFL....Wood is ~free in today's world.  Heck, you can sign up for them to DELIVER it to your driveway in a pile.  Yea, you will have to split it and tidy things up, but FREE.  Sure, you can figure out ways to spend more money.  I have never paid for firewood other than in my sweat. 

Not efficient?  Try 95% + Does require a double burning stove with water jacket and an insulated hot water storage tank.  Does both heating for house and domestic water supply.  The old versions built in Europe for hundreds of years using nothing but Brick instead of a hot water jacket/tank are essentially 100% efficient.  Built in the center of homes/buildings.

!00% is awesome! Congratulations. You keep in shape and get paid for it! I am aware of mass stoves but never heard of the water jacket stoves. Tell me more. I am too  old and lazy to go out and split wood though. I would grow fast growing trees and cut them when they are small diameter for cord wood. I have given up many cubic feet of oaks that I paid thousands to have removed. Two giant Burr Oaks that threatened my house. One large limb did damage to our house, another smaller one fell and jumped back on my new additional garage and damaged it. I love trees though. Hate to cut them down. 

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7 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Well, I've got some wood right here for you, pal :)

No, it really doesn't. Also WITH a kiln. You'll need a kiln + vacuum to get bulk wood to go that low.

What age? Nobody stores pellets for longer than one heating season. If you store them properly, they remain bone-dry

DIN+ produces <1% ash content.  Fireplace? Water jacket? The German world for a pellet oven is "Vergaser" which unfortunately translates to "carburetor" most places, but should really be "wood gas generator" It does pyrolysis, turning the carbonaceous fuels into producer gas first.

Low heat = low efficiency. In the world of Carnots, delta t is king. The best hot water tank is a Dewar.

I am not a socialist, but I grew up in the USSR, and it was a childhood like any other. Conventional. Not at all like in your agitprop.

 

I used to use a corn stove in a large old drafty house. I was just trying to reduce the natural gas bill. Corn was less than two dollars a bushel when I  started out but then natural gas became cheaper and corn higher. Corn was cheaper than wood pellets! That was about 17 years ago. I used to agitate the pellet stove forum members by telling them that. 

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On 7/26/2022 at 3:42 AM, Rob Plant said:

What is wrong with gas central heating (other than cost very recently)?

Also Ground source heat pumps and air source heat pumps!

Central air and heating are fine. I have it but in the winter we only need a small gas stove to heat the house and it keeps half the house warm and half cool. That saves money. In the summer I cool in the coolest parts of the night and that usually keeps the temperature below 78 all day. That saves money if you have a well insulated home. 

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1 hour ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Low heat = low efficiency. In the world of Carnots, delta t is king. The best hot water tank is a Dewar.

I am not a socialist,

 

🙄🤣🤡

We aren't doing work... We are absorbing heat in an effectively infinite heat exchanger.  And no delta T is NOT king. 

My bad, not a socialist, a communist.

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Kansas is getting a 4 billion battery plant for Tesla. Samsung is the battery builder. We’ll wait and see but that may end up being the biggest yet. 

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