Saudi Net Oil Exports Have Been Below Their 2005 Level for 16 Years

[Jeffrey Brown + 207]

The available data show that the volume of net oil exports that Saudi Arabia has delivered to importing counties has been below their 2005 level of net exports for 16 years. I'm defining net oil exports as total petroleum liquids production less total liquids consumption (BP data base).  It's an imperfect, but consistent, metric. Incidentally, BP has released their 2022 report, with annual production and consumption data through 2021.  

 

Note that as annual Brent crude oil prices approximately doubled from $25 in 2002 to $55 in 2005, Saudi net oil exports increased from  6.4 to 8.7 million bpd.  

 

As annual Brent Crude oil prices doubled again, from $55 in 2005 to an average of $110 over a three-year period from 2011 to 2013, Saudi net oil exports declined from 8.7 million bpd in 2005 to an average of 7.5 million bod for 2011 to 2013.  

 

They were at 8.3 million bpd in 2019, when the average annual Brent crude oil price was $64. 

 

Their net exports fell to 7.4 million bpd in 2020, as the average annual Brent crude oil price fell to $42, as the Pandemic considerably reduced global oil demand. 

 

However, as the average annual Brent crude oil price increased by about 70%, from $42 in 2020 to $71 in 2021, Saudi Arabia's net exports were flat year over year, at 7.4 million bpd--15% below their 2005 level. 

Edited July 15, 2022 by Jeffrey Brown

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

1 hour ago, Jeffrey Brown said:

The available data show that the volume of net oil exports that Saudi Arabia has delivered to importing counties has been below their 2005 level of net exports for 16 years. I'm defining net oil exports as total petroleum liquids production less total liquids consumption (BP data base).  It's an imperfect, but consistent, metric. Incidentally, BP has released their 2022 report, with annual production and consumption data through 2021.  

 

Note that as annual Brent crude oil prices approximately doubled from $25 in 2002 to $55 in 2005, Saudi net oil exports increased from  6.4 to 8.7 million bpd.  

 

As annual Brent Crude oil prices doubled again, from $55 in 2005 to an average of $110 over a three-year period from 2011 to 2013, Saudi net oil exports declined from 8.7 million bpd in 2005 to an average of 7.5 million bod for 2011 to 2013.  

 

They were at 8.3 million bpd in 2019, when the average annual Brent crude oil price was $64. 

 

Their net exports fell to 7.4 million bpd in 2020, as the average annual Brent crude oil price fell to $42, as the Pandemic considerably reduced global oil demand. 

 

However, as the average annual Brent crude oil price increased by about 70%, from $42 in 2020 to $71 in 2021, Saudi Arabia's net exports were flat year over year, at 7.4 million bpd--15% below their 2005 level. 

Some possible reasons

a) Growing domestic demand? The Saudi population has been growing all the way till about now

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=SA

b) OPEC+ turned OPEC into a functional entity? Note that OPEC quotas regulate total production, not exports.

c) The 2020 price war revealed the Saudi breakeven point to be in the region of $70, which is actually worse than many a US shale.

d) Speculatively, their local peak may already be over. (Vehemently denied) See

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghawar_Field

e) You should also not neglect their IMPORTS. I hear they are importing much oil from Estonia these days... This has no impact on their OPEC+ quota.

 

 

Edited July 15, 2022 by Andrei Moutchkine

[Jeffrey Brown + 207]

Per the BP data base, Saudi total liquids consumption increased from 2.1 million bpd in 2005 to 3.6 million bpd 2021, although consumption was basically flat from 2019 to 2021. 

[Jeffrey Brown + 207]

Two Different Ways to Calculate Net Exports (Gets you to the same place)

(mbpd = million bpd and assuming no refinery gains)

 

Production Land

9 mbpd of production

No refining capacity

5 mbpd of consumption

Gross exports:  9 mbpd (Crude to Refinery Land)

Gross imports:  5 mbpd (Refined Liquids from Refinery Land)

Net exports = Gross Exports Less Gross Imports = 9 - 5 = 4

Net exports = Production Less Consumption = 9 - 5 = 4

 

Refinery Land

1 mbpd of production

10 mbpd of refining capacity

5 mbpd of consumption

Gross exports (Refined Liquids to Production Land):  5 mbpd

Gross imports (Crude from Production Land):  9 mbpd

Net exports = Gross Exports Less Gross Imports = 5 - 9 = -4 (4 mbpd of net imports)

Net exports = Production Less Consumption = 1 - 5 = -4 (4 mbpd of net imports)

Edited July 17, 2022 by Jeffrey Brown