U.S. Forecasts 50% Cut in Iran Oil Sales, Missing Goal

The Trump administration forecasts that it will persuade countries to cut Iranian oil imports by as much as 1 million barrels a day when it reimposes energy sanctions in early November, according to two people familiar with the administration’s efforts to choke off Tehran’s crude sales. The assessment forecasts a range of likely cuts of 700,000 to 1 million barrels a day -- a significant reduction for the Islamic Republic but short of the announced U.S. goal of halting all sales of Iranian crude. Iran exported an average of about 2.1 million barrels of oil per day over the last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Any significant reduction would be a blow to Iran’s battered economy.

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According to Bloomberg, Iran regime sold 2.1 million barrels of oil last year, but ordinary Iranian people didn't see a penny of all that money. What was it spent on? Support for terrorism?

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In same time, China rejects US demand to reduce Iran oil import...India, too...

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Does that forecast include the backdoor sales through Iraq?

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I've read this article and three things can be a possible conclusion:

- no longer talking about zero oil exports
- their estimate is within market expectations 
- most people are talking about official numbers and ignoring black market

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From now on, according to the US sanctions. Iraq can't sell the Kirkuk crude Oil to the Iran....

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They will go bankrupt, similar as a Turkey now...

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What Iran really needs longer term, oil (and gas) wise is infrastructure investment, and here sanctions really hurt the countries capacity and capabilities. And sanctions have very little ability to effect terrorism out of Iran, and the effect their might be negative besides. It's the countries to the west of Iran that historically fund terrorism that effects the west. 

 

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Though the International Energy Agency's current report centers on how calm the oil market is, this could change after the second round of Iran sanctions. The IEA raised its 2019 global oil demand growth estimate and warned that sanctions against Iran will make the market "far less calm" than it is today. 

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Iran holds the largest combined oil and natural gas reserves in the world and ranks among the top ten oil producers globally with 4.66 million barrels per day (mb/d) of liquids output in 2017. Recent figures for July, however, suggest crude oil production has dropped to 3.72 million b/d with crude exports between 2.2 and 2.4 million b/d.

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