Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN January 6, 2023 https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/us-natgas-prices-slide-18-month-low-warmer-temps-some-models-forecast-cold-blast-weeks US NatGas Prices Slide To 18-Month Low On Warm Spell; Some Models Forecast Cold Blast In Weeks by Tyler Durden Friday, Jan 06, 2023 - 12:00 PM See WEATHER MODELS in article Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN January 10, 2023 https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-price-fundamental-daily-forecast-ripe-for-short-covering-rally-due-to-oversold-conditions-1247562 Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Ripe for Short-Covering Rally Due to Oversold Conditions By:James Hyerczyk Updated: Jan 9, 2023, 10:27 CST With futures down about 44% over the past three weeks, natural gas futures start the new week in oversold territory. Natural gas futures are edging higher on Monday, helped by oversold technical indicators and a surge in demand for crude oil. Hopes for less-aggressive U.S. interest rate hikes are also buoying financial markets and depressing the dollar. A weaker greenback makes dollar-denominated commodities like natural gas more affordable for investors holding foreign currencies. At 12:40 GMT, March natural gas futures are trading $3.485, up $0.093 or +2.74%. On Friday, the United States Natural Gas Fund ETF (UNG) settled at $11.87, down $0.09 or -0.75%. Natural Gas Starts Year with Biggest Weekly Dive in 31 Years U.S. natural gas tumbled about 18% in the first week of January, the biggest slide on record to start a year, according to Refinitiv Eikon data. “January 2023 is off to the warmest start in more than 15 years,” analysts at energy consulting firm EBW Analytics told customers in a note. Will Oversold Conditions Offset the Widow Maker? With futures down about 44% over the past three weeks, its biggest three-week drop in history, according to Refinitiv data, natural gas futures start the new week in oversold territory. The relative strength index (RSI) is below 30 for a seventh day in a row for the first time since 2019. Meanwhile, the premium of futures for March over April, which the industry calls the widow maker, fell to a record low of 7 cents per mmBtu last Thursday as some in the market gave up hope that extreme cold would cause prices to spike later this winter. The gas industry calls the March-April spread the “widow maker” because rapid price moves resulting from changing weather forecasts have knocked some speculators out of business. The market uses the March-April spread to bet on the winter heating season when demand for gas peaks. Given the oversold conditions, traders should watch this spread for any fast adjustments that could be indicating a bottom is forming. Short-Term Outlook We don’t expect to see a change in trend to up, but we could see a strong short-covering rally due to oversold conditions and stronger demand for dollar-denominated assets like natural gas due to the weaker greenback. Furthermore, although the weather is expected to be quite warm over the next 15-days, there is a possible colder pattern forming. According to the European model, a colder pattern could form around Feb. 3 – 10 if frosty air over Canada finally advances back into the United States. It’s quite far out but should be monitored because any shifts toward cold could shake out some of the weaker shorts. For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/weekly-waves-9-january-2023-eur-usd-gbp-usd-and-natural-gas-1249331 Natural Gas Falls Down Quickly in Bearish Impulse The natural gas chart has made a strong downtrend continuation – as we expected in our regular Elliott Wave updates on NGAS in 2022: The NGAS chart’s downtrend is expected to be a wave 3 (green) because of the strong impulsive decline. The wave 3 (green) could continue lower. A small retracement (blue arrow) could follow up with another bearish swing lower (red arrow) before the wave 3 (green) is finished. Eventually once the wave 3 (green) is completed, a larger bullish correction should emerge within a wave 4 (green). Usually waves 4 are complex and lengthy, but eventually a new push lower within the wave 5 (green) of wave C (pink) of a potential wave W (gray). Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN January 10, 2023 REUTERS Mon, January 9, 2023 at 9:36 AM CST (Adds latest prices) Jan 9 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 5% on Monday on forecasts for slightly more heating demand next week than previously expected and as short sellers take profits after prices fell to a one-year low last week. "The February natural gas contract is rebounding ... on overdue profit-taking by shorts," analysts at energy consulting firm EBW Analytics told customers, noting gas futures fell to an intraday low of $3.52 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) on Friday, their lowest since July 2021. That continues last year's record volatility with the contract now up or down over 5% on three of the five trading days so far this year. Front-month gas futures for February delivery rose 20.0 cents, or 5.4%, to settle at $3.910 per mmBtu. On Friday, the contract closed at its lowest since Dec. 30, 2021. Monday's price increase pushed the gas contract out of technically oversold territory for the first time in eight days. But after posting its worst start to a year on record, U.S. gas futures were still down about 13% so far this year after rising 20% in 2022. Last week's price drop caused gas speculators to boost their net short futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges for a third week in a row to their highest since October 2022, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report. Traders said the market's biggest uncertainty remains when Freeport LNG will restart its liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas. After several delays from October to November and then to December, Freeport expects the facility to return in the second half of January, pending regulatory approvals. Analysts have long said Freeport would likely return during the first or second quarter of 2023 because the company still has work to do to satisfy federal regulators, including training staff in new procedures, before restarting the plant. Whenever Freeport returns, U.S. demand for gas will jump. The plant can turn about 2.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas into LNG, which is about 2% of U.S. daily production. Several vessels, including Prism Diversity, Prism Courage, Prism Agility and Elisa Larus, have been waiting in the Gulf of Mexico to pick up LNG from Freeport, some since early November. Other ships were sailing toward the plant, including Corcovado LNG, which is expected to arrive in mid-January, and Prism Brilliance, Kmarin Diamond and Wilforce expected in late January. U.S. GAS OUTPUT RISING Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 98.3 bcfd so far in January, up from 96.7 bcfd in December. That compares with a monthly record of 99.9 bcfd in November 2022. With the weather expected to remain warmer-than-normal through late January, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would ease from 121.2 bcfd this week to 120.7 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Friday, while its forecast for next week was higher. The average amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants rose to 12.1 bcfd so far in January, up from 11.9 bcfd in December. That compares with a monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March 2022. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN January 10, 2023 https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/us-natgas-prices-bounce-after-monthlong-selloff-some-forecasters-see-cold-flip-end US NatGas Prices Bounce After Monthlong Selloff; Some Forecasters See Possible Cold Flip End Of Month by Tyler Durden Monday, Jan 09, 2023 - 05:40 PM US natural gas futures surged from an 18-month low and major support level. Energy prices as a whole rose on the prospects China's move to reopen would boost imports and outweigh global recession fears. Long-term weather models indicate the possibility of a return to winter for the Lower 48 later this month into next, while near-term outlooks still show mild temperatures. There's no concrete evidence yet of a flip from mild to colder temperatures for the US that would boost heating demand. Front-month NatGas futures for February delivery jumped more than 10% to above $4 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). The snap higher in price (possibly a short squeeze) occurred just above the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement on the 2020 run-up from $1.43 to $10 in August. Since late last summer, prices have slid nearly 65% on abundant supply, mild winter, and LNG export troubles due to Freeport delays. Comparing NOAA's latest 6-10 day weather outlook versus the 8-14 day outlook, there are signs cold weather could be ahead for the West Coast and Rocky Mountains while the eastern half of the US stays above average. There's some chatter on social media about longer-term outlooks pointing to much colder weather for the Lower 48 later this month into next (remember, we pointed out some of these forecasts last week). [MORE WEATHER MAPS] ...However, Houston-based energy firm Criterion Research said warmer trends would persist across the Lower 48 for the next two weeks. They also said there's a possibility of a weather event at the end of the month of early February... ... ...As for Freeport's restart, it's anyone's guess, but here's some commentary around the latest aerial drone photos of the LNG export facility and what one trader thinks the reopening timeframe could be in early March. "This is my key (Not Skylar's). When the Valve that is under wrap is installed here. I estimate it is 6 weeks to restart away (pending they are smooth with regulators). That puts me smack at March 1st given work is happening now." #LNG #FreeportLNG #NatGas Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN January 10, 2023 https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Europes-Warm-Winter-May-Not-Be-Such-Good-News-For-Energy.html Europe’s Warm Winter May Not Be Such Good News For Energy By Irina Slav - Jan 09, 2023, 5:00 PM CST Winter in Europe has been so mild there has actually been an unseasonable increase in gas storage. As long as the EU relies on LNG, these prices are not going to go much lower for the very simple reason that LNG could never be as cheap as pipeline gas. Potential new summer demand for energy could make the task of European countries rushing to refill their gas storage a bit harder. Join Our Community The last month has been a month of celebration in the European Union. Gas demand is down because of the unusually warm weather. As a result, prices are down, and the crisis, according to analysts, appears to be averted. The problem is that some of those analysts are adding the qualifier “For now.” The European Commission boasted an over 20-percent decline in demand in gas consumption on the continent over the period between August and November last year. This was not just a result of warm weather but also concerted action by European governments to discourage more demand. Then December turned out to be as warm as October, and demand fell naturally, as did prices. Some began talking about an end to the crisis and an end to the winter, even though in December, the astronomical winter was just beginning. January is turning out to be warm so far, adding substance to predictions that Europe lucked out in a major way this winter and will finish it with enough of a gas cushion should another cold spell pay Europeans a visit. In fact, winter has been so mild there has actually been an unseasonable increase in gas storage, Reuters’ John Kemp noted in a recent column. Only he also noted something else in that column. That the second factor leading to this unseasonable increase was the decline in industrial gas consumption. And the only way industrial consumers can reduce consumption is by shrinking their operations. Related: Norway Replaces Russia As Germany’s Top Gas Supplier This is the dark side of the success a lot of media are celebrating alongside Brussels. These celebrations appear to ignore the fact that the 20.1-percent decline in gas consumption across the bloc was also in no small part made possible by exorbitant gas prices that weighed on consumption the way excessive prices always weigh on the consumption of a commodity. Then there is the fact that although gas prices are down from last summer’s peaks, they are nowhere near where they were in 2019. As Politico noted in a recent story about European gas demand and prices, at close to 70 euro per megawatt-hour, European benchmark gas prices were about five times what they were in 2019. The problem that European politicians do not want to talk about is that as long as the EU relies on LNG, these prices are not going to go much lower for the very simple reason that LNG could never be as cheap as pipeline gas. The other reason is that Russian pipeline deliveries are not returning any time soon, not along Nord Stream 1, anyway, and this means that the EU will continue to rely on LNG both by choice and by necessity for the observable future. Over the short term, there’s some good news for Europeans. As wholesale prices on the TTF market fall, so will retail prices when they catch up with the wholesale prices—retail energy suppliers buy their gas on the wholesale market months in advance—and the winter may well continue mild. But that would likely mean a dry, hot summer, too. And that would increase the demand for energy for cooling purposes. In fairness, Europe as a whole is a much smaller user of cooling technology than the United States, but that’s largely because it is, for the most part, a colder place. If this warm winter is any indication for this year’s summer, it will be a really hot one, pushing demand higher. While unlikely to exceed traditional winter demand, this potential new summer demand for energy could make the task of European countries rushing to refill their gas storage a bit harder, even with gas left in storage from the previous heating season. The goal for the next heating season will once again be 90-percent fill rates for all storage caverns across the bloc. Last year, there was plenty of LNG—at the respective price—with the EU turning into the world’s largest LNG importer in the world thanks to its sudden appetite for the superchilled replacement for Russian pipeline gas. Yet this year, according to analysts, Europe would need to import even more LNG to secure its winter supply because there would be a lot less Russian pipeline gas than there was last year. One might hope for another warm winter but relying on hopes is hardly a sound energy security strategy. The International Energy Agency has already warned the EU is facing a supply gap of 30 billion cu m of gas, even with all the demand destruction and deliberate demand cuts. And this gap might prove tricky to fill with China’s LNG appetite returning, too, as the country reopens, even with doubts about the success of this reopening still abounding. It may, then, turn out that it is too early for the European Union to celebrate the warm winter, especially since it appears that warm or not, the weather is not having any positive effect on the EU’s emissions. By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com More Top Reads From Oilprice.com: Oil Prices Climb As China Reopens Its Borders Colonial Shuts Key Fuel Pipeline To The U.S. Northeast Russia Restores Output At Major Oil Project After Exxon’s Exit Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN January 10, 2023 https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Biden-Administration-Considers-Banning-Gas-Stoves.html Biden Administration Considers Banning Gas Stoves By Irina Slav - Jan 10, 2023, 2:07 AM CST The Biden administration may move to ban the use of gas stoves on the grounds of new research suggesting they may be related to health problems such as asthma. The research, co-authored by officials from a clean energy nonprofit that also participate in a carbon-free buildings promotion program, suggested that more than 12 percent of asthma cases in children could be attributed to the use of gas stoves. According to a Bloomberg report on the news, some 40 percent of American households use gas stoves but the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission may change that. “This is a hidden hazard. Any option is on the table. Products that can’t be made safe can be banned,” one of the members of the commission, Richard Trumka Jr., told Bloomberg. The report also cites information from the Environmental Protection Agency and the World Health Organisation, which says that gas stoves emit nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, and fine particulate matter, which makes them unsafe. A country-wide ban would follow similar bans set by several cities in the United States, including New York, Seattle and San Francisco. Bans in these cities cover things like gas furnaces and gas heaters, and California’s authorities are now moving to ban all gas-fired water heaters in the state. According to the Consumer Product Safety Commissioner interviewed by Bloomberg, the ban on gas stoves could take the form of a suspension of imports of such appliances or a ban on their local manufacture. Congressmen, meanwhile, have suggested the addition of warning labels, range hoods, and the introduction of higher performance standards, Bloomberg noted in its report. People willing to switch from gas to electric stoves could take advantage of funding opportunities in the Inflation Reduction Act, which includes several hundred billion in spending on the transition from fossil fuels to clean electricity. By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com More Top Reads From Oilprice.com: Oil Prices Climb As China Reopens Its Borders Colonial Shuts Key Fuel Pipeline To The U.S. Northeast Russia Restores Output At Major Oil Project After Exxon’s Exit ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Some of the largest culprits of asthmas type conditions: "Synthetic Chemical Fragrances" and the adjuvant of aluminum in the bulk of childhood vaccines. "Synthetic Chemical Fragrances" are designed to stay around (not degrade) and to cling to things and involve extremely toxic substances. The mechanism of the immune response when toxic aluminum is injected into the blood stream as an adjuvant explains many allergies and asthma and other health conditions. (The body does not use aluminum for any body function) Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN January 10, 2023 https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Energy-Crisis-Makes-Europe-The-Worlds-Premium-LNG-Market.html Energy Crisis Makes Europe The World’s Premium LNG Market By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jan 09, 2023, 9:00 AM CST In its rush to replace Russian natural gas, Europe imported nearly one-quarter of the liquified natural gas that was traded last year. While Europe has enough natural gas to get through this winter, it will have to import even more LNG next year to survive the 2023/2024 winter. LNG demand from Asia, particularly from China, was abnormally low this year but competition is expected to be more aggressive next year. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN January 11, 2023 Wed 1/11/2023 US natural gas futures fell to $3.6/MMBtu, returning to levels not seen since December 2021, as gas output is again approaching record levels while forecasts for heating demand this week were revised down. Also, the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas, forced to go offline in June following a fire, again delayed the restart to the second half of January, leaving more supply on the domestic market. Furthermore, traders worry the plant will only be back online during the first or second quarter due to the need for further work to satisfy federal regulators. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas European natural gas prices were at pre-Ukraine war levels of €70/MWh (66/MWh on Wed 1/11 am) in mid-January, down nearly 50% from their December peak and a fifth of records levels set in August, as warmer-than-expected temperatures eased concerns over shortages and the need for gas rationing. Yet, Europe is set for the warmest January in years. At the same time, record LNG imports, a rise in renewable capacity, namely from wind power in Germany, lower consumption and energy-saving measures helped to keep storages full. Gas storages across Europe hovered around 83% full in the last weeks, up from 50% a year ago and well above the five-year seasonal norm of 70%. Although the worst seems to be over for now, the outlook for 2023 remains challenging as a cold snap could raise heating demand. Also, Europe needs to increase its LNG import capacity and continue to attract LNG deliveries, at a time the Asian premium increased. Also, a rise in gas demand from China could increase competition in the LNG market. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Tuesday 1/10 am REUTERS https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-natgas-futures-fall-4-135920922.html U.S. natgas futures fall 4% on rising output and lower demand forecast Monday 1/9 PM https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/us-natgas-prices-bounce-after-monthlong-selloff-some-forecasters-see-cold-flip-end US NatGas Prices Bounce After Monthlong Selloff; Some Forecasters See Possible Cold Flip End Of Month Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN January 11, 2023 https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-price-fundamental-daily-forecast-eia-sees-production-rising-to-record-high-in-2023-1251771 Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – EIA Sees Production Rising to Record High in 2023 By:James Hyerczyk Published: Jan 11, 2023, 06:56 CST The short-term outlook is bearish, but a short-covering rally is possible. However, gains will be limited because we are in “Sell the Rally” mode. U.S. natural gas futures are edging higher on Wednesday after touching a multi-month low earlier in the session on rising output and forecasts calling for lower heating demand than previously expected for this week. The small rebound could be reflecting a technical bounce due to oversold conditions, or profit-taking and position-squaring ahead of Thursday’s government storage report. At 12:22 GMT, March natural gas futures are trading $3.357, up $0.043 or 1.30%. On Tuesday, the United States Natural Gas Fund ETF (UNG) settled at $11.42, down $1.01 or -8.13%. Rystad Energy Analyst Highlights Bearish Conditions “U.S. natural gas demand could be on track to hit record lows in January if seasonably warm weather sticks around,” Emily McClain, vice president at consulting firm Rystad Energy, said in a note. “Despite consistently robust LNG (liquefied natural gas) demand … particularly from European buyers, prices are falling and expected to continue bearish momentum until winter weather returns,” McClain said, noting gas production has rebounded after a winter storm caused a sudden drop in late December. Record US Production Growth to Keep Lid on 2023-2024 Gas Prices: EIA U.S. natural gas production will rise to a record high in 2023, while demand will fall, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday. EIA projected dry gas production will rise to 100.34 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2023 and 102.29 bcfd in 2024 from a record 98.02 bcfd in 2022. The agency also projected gas consumption would fall to 86.74 bcfd in 2023 and 85.79 bcfd in 2024 from a record 88.72 bcfd in 2022. The EIA’s latest projections for 2023 were lower than its December forecast of 100.38 bcfd for supply but higher than its December forecast of 85.40 bcfd for demand. Short-Term Weather Forecast According to NatGasWeather for Jan. 11-17, “Warmer than normal conditions will rule most of the central, southern, and eastern US with highs of 30s to 50s across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast and nice upper 50s to 70s over the southern US and Mid-Atlantic Coast for very light national demand. The West will be seasonal as weather systems track inland with rain, snow, and highs of 30s to 60s. The Northern Plains will be the nation’s only cold spot with highs of 20s-30s. Overall, low to very low national demand the next 7-days.” Short-Term Outlook Early estimates for the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage print covering the week ended Jan. 6 ranged from a pull of 14 Bcf to an injection of 10 Bcf, according to Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI). NGI modeled a pull of 14 Bcf. NGI also noted that even the withdrawal end of the range would compare meekly with the year-earlier EIA print of a 179 Bcf pull. The five-year average is a 151 Bcf draw. It would also stand in stark contrast to the close of 2022. The short-term outlook is bearish, but we still could see a short-covering rally. Nonetheless, we expect gains to be limited because we are in “Sell the Rally” mode. It’s going to have to turn extremely cold to put even the smallest dent in this bear market. For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN January 12, 2023 Wed, January 11, 2023 at 12:42 PM CST - Reuters https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-u-natgas-falls-3-155454546.html UPDATE 2-U.S. natgas edges up 1% with cold weather coming in late January ...as a growing number of analysts expect Freeport LNG to again delay the restart of its liquefied natural gas export plant in Texas. That continues last year's record volatility, with the contract now up or down more than 5% on four of the seven trading days in 2023. . ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ https://finance.yahoo.com/news/freeport-lng-may-extend-texas-171116470.html.. Freeport LNG may extend Texas plant restart to February- sources LONDON, Jan 11 (Reuters) - Top U.S. gas exporter, Freeport LNG, is expected to further extend the seven-month-long outage of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas to February, as it awaits regulatory approvals, three sources told Reuters on Wednesday. Accounting for 20% of U.S. LNG exports, resumption of the facility is important to ease the squeeze of global LNG supplies, especially as Europe is rebuilding its gas storage after Russia cut gas exports following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. "There has been no official messaging, but nobody expects any cargoes until end-February at the earliest," one of the sources said. "Second half of January is now out of sight," another source said. Freeport LNG spokeswoman said the restart timeline still stands and the company was still targeting the second half of this month for the safe, initial restart of its liquefaction facility, pending regulatory approvals. The facility was initially expected to restart in October, but pushed back that target several times since the plant first closed on June 8 following a fire that a consultants' report determined was due to inadequate operating and testing procedures, and human error and fatigue. In late December, the company said reconstruction work was substantially complete but regulators need to approve the restart, adding it did not anticipate the initial restart of its liquefaction facility to begin until the second half of January 2023. The delays have forced big customers including JERA and Osaka Gas to book hundreds of millions of dollars of losses. Its other big offtakers include BP, TotalEnergies and SK E&S. U.S. LNG exports have been steadily increasing for years and in 2022, the United States became the top supplier of LNG to Europe, where demand soared following Moscow's decision to largely cut off piped gas supply. Both the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and the Department of Transportation's Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) need to approve Freeport's return to service. Many analysts do not expect the plant to return until the first or second quarter because the company still has a lot of work to do to satisfy regulators. (Reporting by Marwa Rashad and Julia Payne in London; Additional reporting by Emily Chow in Singapore and Scott DiSavino in New York; Editing by Nina Chestney and Bernadette Baum) ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ California Pounding Continues, But Upcoming Large-Scale Weather Pattern Change On The Way https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/california-pounding-continues-upcoming-large-scale-pattern-change-way ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ More Trading Online Natgas Natural Gas Technical Analysis Today - Elliott Wave and Price News, Gas Price Prediction! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47oPWm_hDOo and on the 11th https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47oPWm_hDOo Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN January 13, 2023 (edited) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-u-natgas-jumps-6-153404547.html Thu, January 12, 2023 at 9:34 AM CST Reuters UPDATE 2-U.S. natgas up 1% on higher demand, despite surprise storage buildThu, January 12, 2023 at 9:34 AM CST·7 min read (Adds latest prices, quote) Jan 12 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Thursday on forecasts for higher demand this week than previously expected, colder-than-normal weather coming in late January and uncertainty about when the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas will exit a seven-month outage. That small price increase came despite a federal report showing a surprise build in gas stockpiles that was the first injection during the month of January on record because the weather last week was warmer than normal, keeping heating demand low. "With prices down so heavily to kick-off 2023, gas market players may have already largely priced in a considerably weak withdrawal," analysts at energy consulting firm Gelber & Associates said in a note. Gas futures were down about 17% so far this year. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 11 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Jan. 6. That was a surprise from the 13-bcf withdrawal forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll and compares with a decrease of 157 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2017-2021) average decline of 157 bcf. Last week's increase boosted stockpiles to 2.902 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 1.4% below the five-year average of 2.942 tcf for this time of year. Front-month gas futures for February delivery rose 2.4 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $3.695 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Earlier in the week, the contract closed at its lowest level since Dec. 30, 2021. Despite the gain the contract remained in oversold territory with a relative strength index (RSI) below 30 for a third day in a row. Daily volume in the U.S. Natural Gas Fund, an exchange-traded fund (ETF) designed to track the daily price movement of gas, rose to 21.1 million shares on Wednesday, its highest since February 2022, according to Refinitiv data. That was the fifth most active day for the U.S. gas fund and follows a rise on Monday in shares outstanding to their highest since December 2020. Daily share purchases have entered the top 10 daily inflows three times already this year. Traders said the biggest market uncertainty remains the restart date for Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas. After several delays from October to November and then to December, Freeport now expects the facility to be back in operation in the second half of January, pending regulatory approvals. Analysts, however, have long said Freeport, which shut in a fire on June 8, would probably return to service during the first or second quarter of 2023 because further work is required to satisfy federal regulators, including training staff in new safety procedures, before the plant can be restarted. A growing number of analysts and other sources have said this week that they do not expect Freeport back until February or later. Whenever Freeport returns, U.S. gas demand will jump. The plant can turn about 2.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas into LNG, which is about 2% of U.S. daily production. Several vessels, including Prism Diversity, Prism Courage and Prism Agility, were waiting in the Gulf of Mexico to pick up LNG from Freeport. Some have been there since early November. U.S. GAS OUTPUT RISING Data provider Refinitiv said that average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 98.4 bcfd so far in January, up from 96.7 bcfd in December. That compares with a monthly record of 99.9 bcfd in November 2022. With the weather expected to remain warmer than normal until late January, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would ease from 121.2 bcfd this week to 119.4 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Wednesday. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Jan 6 Dec 30 Jan 6 average (Actual) (Actual) Jan 6 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): +11 -213 -157 -157 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,902 2,891 3,042 2,942 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average -1.4% -6.7% ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Wed, January 11, 2023 at 11:23 AM CST https://finance.yahoo.com/news/freeport-lng-may-extend-texas-172328653.html Freeport LNG may extend Texas plant restart to February- sources LONDON (Reuters) - Top U.S. gas exporter, Freeport LNG, is expected to further extend the seven-month-long outage of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas to February, as it awaits regulatory approvals, three sources told Reuters on Wednesday. Accounting for 20% of U.S. LNG exports, resumption of the facility is important to ease the squeeze of global LNG supplies, especially as Europe is rebuilding its gas storage after Russia cut gas exports following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. "There has been no official messaging, but nobody expects any cargoes until end-February at the earliest," one of the sources said. "Second half of January is now out of sight," another source said. Freeport LNG spokeswoman said the restart timeline still stands and the company was still targeting the second half of this month for the safe, initial restart of its liquefaction facility, pending regulatory approvals. The facility was initially expected to restart in October, but pushed back that target several times since the plant first closed on June 8 following a fire that a consultants' report determined was due to inadequate operating and testing procedures, and human error and fatigue. In late December, the company said reconstruction work was substantially complete but regulators need to approve the restart, adding it did not anticipate the initial restart of its liquefaction facility to begin until the second half of January 2023. The delays have forced big customers including JERA and Osaka Gas to book hundreds of millions of dollars of losses. Its other big offtakers include BP, TotalEnergies and SK E&S. U.S. LNG exports have been steadily increasing for years and in 2022, the United States became the top supplier of LNG to Europe, where demand soared following Moscow's decision to largely cut off piped gas supply. Both the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and the Department of Transportation's Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) need to approve Freeport's return to service. Many analysts do not expect the plant to return until the first or second quarter because the company still has a lot of work to do to satisfy regulators. (Reporting by Marwa Rashad and Julia Payne in London; Additional reporting by Emily Chow in Singapore and Scott DiSavino in New York; Editing by Nina Chestney and Bernadette Baum) Edited January 13, 2023 by Tom Nolan Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN January 13, 2023 https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/freeport-lng-export-facilitys-power-flows-surge-first-time-explosion Freeport LNG Export Facility's Power Flows Surge For First Time Since Explosion by Tyler Durden Thursday, Jan 12, 2023 - 06:47 AM Bearish factors have driven down natural gas futures by 61% since last August. Some factors include the delayed restart of the Freeport LNG export facility and a mild winter. Last week, NatGas for February delivery hit an 18-month low of around $3.57/MMBtu and even lower to $3.47/MMBtu on Wednesday. Prices are clawing back some of the losses on Thursday, with Natgas prices up 4% to $3.81. One bit of good news that crossed the wires yesterday evening was the damaged Freeport plant on the Texas gulf coast "has likely drawn power from the grid for the first time since it was shut after an explosion in June," according to a Bloomberg report. Alex Bennitt, manager of fundamental analysis of Live Power at Yes Energy LLC., said the NatGas export terminal increased power flows on Wednesday between 1100 and 1250 ET. "The load was still well below the levels seen before the terminal's shutdown," he said. Power flows to Freeport LNG are promising and might indicate a return to operational status is progressing. The export facility, responsible for 20% of US LNG exports, has been delayed at least four times for a partial restart. It has suffered a seven-month-long outage following an explosion last June. The new timeline Reuters has provided for a partial restart is in the second half of February. "There has been no official messaging, but nobody expects any cargoes until end-February at the earliest," a source said. Besides Freeport developments, weather forecasts are turning colder, and heating demand is expected to rise in the coming weeks across the Lower 48. Is winter returning? And there's also overdue profit-taking by shorts as the February NatGas contract is rebounding. Prices tagged the 76.4% Fib retracement level and slightly bounced after hitting the lowest levels since July 2021. So the possibility of a Freeport restart inching closer and colder weather could be what NatGas needs to increase bullish speculators after months of declines. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN January 13, 2023 https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Natural-Gas-Prices-In-Europe-Ease-But-The-Energy-Crisis-Isnt-Over-Yet.html Natural Gas Prices In Europe Ease, But The Energy Crisis Isn't Over Yet By ChAI - Jan 12, 2023, 4:00 PM CST Historically warm winter has pushed down natural gas prices in early January. The ongoing coal revival shows no signs of slowing as exemplified by recent protests against a new mining operation in Germany. Natural gas prices in Europe, while now considerably lower than in summer 2022, are likely to stay much higher than the historical average in the short to medium term. Join Our Community Over the last week, European natural gas prices have been trading at levels not seen since prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. TTF prices, the European benchmark, have been trading below €75/MWh since the 2nd of January. Given the record price highs of over €330/MWh in late August 2022, the decline in prices has been welcomed across Europe, particularly by consumers who hope for a reduction in their domestic energy costs. At this stage, it is worth examining the key reasons for the fall in natural gas prices and to look ahead at what may be next for a commodity which has dominated European news over the past 12 months. Natural Gas TTF Prices over past 12 months (Source: Trading Economics) High Temperatures and High Storage Fundamental to the decline in gas prices has been an historically warm winter across Europe. Towns and cities across the continent experienced record high temperatures for Christmas and New Year’s day, continuing a warm trend that began late last summer. Indeed, the one period in Q4 2022 when the TTF price slide was interrupted was during ‘arctic blast’ that occurred throughout late October and November and forced many households to finally reach for the thermostat. Europe’s warm winter has been key to lowering natural gas prices because it reduced the demand for the gas that had been stored up in anticipation of the colder months. The successful drive to maximise gas storage across the continent last year has been bolstered by the lack of demand, resulting in almost record stocks entering the new year and 36% above the previous ten-year average. These record inventory levels have allayed last year’s fears of blackouts throughout Europe. While there are further cold spells forecast for northwest Europe in late January which may raise prices, concerns have decreased that energy supplies might be exhausted this winter. Image Source Production still Missing, Coal has Returned The combination of mild weather and high storage has been crucial to lowering natural gas prices, but it is also important to recall the impact that last summer’s unprecedented price surge had on industrial demand. Many energy-intensive industrial production sites across Europe closed in 2022 due to unsustainable costs and still have no prospect of reopening. Fertiliser production and metal processing plants were particularly affected by natural gas prices, with around 70% of the former group and 50% of the latter closing last year. Without the consistent demand resulting from such industries, downward pressure on natural gas prices was predictable. Less predictable, particularly in an era of climate change pledges, was the return of coal to the forefront of European industrial production. A quick look at Germany, often taken as a paradigm for the state of European industry, reveals insights into the revival of the most decried fossil fuel. Prior to the invasion of Ukraine, Germany relied on Russian gas for approximately 15% of its total energy supply. Compounding this loss, three of the final six active nuclear power plants in Germany were switched offline at the end of 2021 in line with an anti-nuclear policy that began following the Fukushima disaster in 2011. Despite these losses, German industrial production figures bounced back in late summer to record positive YoY growth in August and September and only mild reductions in October and September. Although LNG imports from Norway, Qatar and the US were crucial to this, Reuters reported that there was an almost 5% increase in coal-powered electricity in Germany in Q3 2022 compared to the previous year. This switch is important to note when assessing the decline in European natural prices, and the ongoing coal revival shows no signs of slowing as exemplified by recent protests against a new mining operation in Germany which recently made international news. Looking Ahead The European energy crisis has necessitated a long overdue assessment of the continent’s energy security which will initiate fundamental changes to national policies. The shortfall of Russian gas will need to be recouped elsewhere and the wheels are already in motion; in November, Germany announced a fifteen year supply deal with Qatar for natural gas which will begin in 2026. This agreement was reached in spite of vehement criticism from Germany over the Gulf nation’s record on rights for migrant workers and the LGBTQ community ahead of the 2022 World Cup which demonstrates the necessity of a more nuanced, or blurred, moral compass when securing energy as opposed to hosting major tournaments. Increased LNG exports from the US will also be vital to Europe’s transition away from Russian gas but building the required infrastructure will take time. These structural changes to continent-wide energy policies mean that natural gas prices in Europe, while now considerably lower than in summer 2022, are likely to stay much higher than the historical average in the short to medium term. Finally, there are two key unknown variables ahead in 2023 which could cause price shocks in the European gas market. The first is the weather which, as discussed, has been crucial to preventing power blackouts so far. While Europe looks set to make it through this winter with relative ease, a summer of heatwaves followed by a cold 2023/24 winter could challenge countries’ ability to rebuild and then maintain their gas storage through the next 18 months. As noted by John Kemp, Europe’s gas infrastructure is built for seasonal, rather than strategic, storage and therefore there is a limit to the capacity for gas stockpiling. The second variable is one which will affect all commodity markets this year; the post-Covid Chinese economic revival. The lack of Asian buyers in the gas spot markets over the past year due to the Zero-Covid policy dampening the need for natural gas imports created a less competitive market for gas which contributed to the decline in prices. With the policy now abandoned, a surge of natural gas imports to China could lead to cargoes being redirected to Asia and consequently cause a price spike in Europe. The low natural gas prices in Europe at present are certainly cause for optimism, but it is important to remember the combination of luck and losses that have enabled this, and with several unknowns on the horizon, commentators should be wary of declaring the energy crisis over. By ChAIpredict More Top Reads From Oilprice.com: Full U.S. Energy Independence Could Have Huge Ramifications For The Middle East 3 Pipeline Stocks To Watch In 2023 2023: Expect A Financial Crash And Major Changes In Global Energy Markets Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN January 13, 2023 https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Natural-Gas-Prices-Plummet-Despite-Inventory-Drop.html U.S. Natural Gas Prices Plummet Despite Inventory Drop By Irina Slav - Jan 13, 2023, 3:30 AM CST Natural gas prices in the United States have plunged and remained low despite a sharp drop in inventories at the end of 2022. Reuters’ John Kemp reported today that working gas stocks in underground storage in the U.S. had ended last year 9% below the five-year average for that time of the year, falling by three percentage points in just two weeks. The reason for the sharp slump was the cold spell that gripped much of the United States, driving much higher demand for gas. Prices, however, have remained low thanks to fast growth in production, which has outpaced both consumption and export growth, Kemp added. As a result of these developments, gas prices have dropped by as much as 50 percent in less than a month, Bloomberg reported this week. The decline is expected to continue this year as well as production growth continues to outpace demand growth. “The market does not need this incremental growth and will ultimately need to force the curve lower to push rigs out of the market,” a TPH analyst said this week, as quoted by Bloomberg. Front-month gas futures on Wednesday were cheaper than $3.70 per mmBtu, down from $9.60 per mmBtu in August last year, Reuters’ Kemp noted. Yet some forecast continued price volatility because of the war in Ukraine and the Western sanctions on Russia. “Alternative supplies are being developed, but it will take years for Europe to replace Russian gas, so price volatility is likely to remain a feature of the market for some time,” Michael Rosen, chief investment officer at Angeles Investments told Barron’s this week. Morgan Stanley is more upbeat, noting weaker gas demand from Europe thanks to the warm winter, which means more U.S. LNG would be freed to go to China, where the reopening of the economy will feature higher energy demand. “We see a much more manageable global supply/demand outlook for this winter and the next,” the bank’s analysts said in a note, quoted by Bloomberg. By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com More Top Reads From Oilprice.com: Global LNG Imports Hit A Record High In 2022 Why Oil’s 7-Month Downturn May Be About To Reverse 2023: Expect A Financial Crash And Major Changes In Global Energy Markets Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN January 13, 2023 Thu, January 12, 2023 at 2:00 PM CST Bloomberg https://finance.yahoo.com/news/key-us-lng-terminal-cancels-200000304.html Key US LNG Terminal Cancels Shipments, Raising Questions on Restart 6 Gerson Freitas Jr., Anna Shiryaevskaya and Stephen Stapczynski Thu, January 12, 2023 at 2:00 PM CST·1 min read (Bloomberg) -- Freeport LNG has canceled some upcoming shipments, adding to the uncertainty over when the US liquefied natural gas exporter will resume shipments after an explosion last summer. At least two cargoes scheduled to load at the Texas terminal at the end of January and in early February have been canceled, according to traders with knowledge of the matter. The facility, shut since June, was scheduled to restart the second half of this month. Freeport declined to comment on the cancellations. Speculation over the reopening timeline has driven fierce volatility in natural gas markets. The facility has the capacity to export roughly 2% of US daily gas production. Its seven-month shutdown means that enough gas to feed all US export terminals for roughly a month was made available for domestic use, contributing to a pile up in inventories. Prices for the commodity, used for industrial power and to heat homes, plummeted by more than 40% in the past month as domestic stockpiles grew ahead of winter and warmer-than-average temperatures reduced demand. The resumption of exports could cause prices to rebound by stemming the flow into local storage. Since October, 19 tankers have listed Freeport LNG as a destination, but the bulk have since switched destinations to another Gulf Coast terminal, according to Wood Mackenzie Ltd. A spike Wednesday in power and natural gas flows to the facility to levels not seen since its shutdown, fanned optimism that the operator may be conducting testing activities in preparation of a restart. Freeport still aims to resume operations in the second half of January, according to spokeswoman Heather Browne. (Updates with price history in fifth paragraph.) Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN January 14, 2023 Fri, January 13, 2023 at 11:46 AM CST REUTERS https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-us-natgas-plunges-8-174642760.html UPDATE 1-US natgas plunges 8% to 18-mth low on possible Freeport delay, mild weather (Adds latest prices) Jan 13 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures plunged about 8% to an 18-month low on Friday on growing expectations the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas will remain shut until February or later and on forecasts the weather will turn mild again in February following a late January freeze. "Sellers are back in the proverbial driver’s seat," analysts at energy consulting firm Gelber & Associates said in a note, pointing to a healthy amount of gas in storage, the expected delayed restart for Freeport LNG and forecasts for more mild weather in February. Front-month gas futures for February delivery fell 27.6 cents, or 7.5%, to settle at $3.419 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since June 24, 2021. That kept the front-month in technically oversold territory with a relative strength index (RSI) below 30 for a fourth day in a row and an 11th time in the last 12 days. For the week, the contract was down about 8%, putting it down for a fourth week in a row for the first time since October. During the prior three weeks, the contract lost about 44%. The premium on March futures over April , which the industry calls the widow maker, slid to a record low of 4 cents per mmBtu as some market participants give up hope that extreme cold will bring a price spike later this winter. The industry uses the March-April spread to bet on the winter heating season when demand for gas peaks. It calls the spread the "widow maker" because rapid price moves resulting from changing weather forecasts have forced some speculators out of business. Among them was the Amaranth hedge fund, which lost more than $6 billion on gas futures in 2006. Traders said the biggest market uncertainty remains the restart date for Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas. At least two LNG vessels gave up on Freeport this week after sources said the company would extend the plant's seven-month outage until February or later, ship tracking data from Refinitiv showed. After several delays from October to November and then to December, Freeport said again this week that the plant was on track to return in the second half of January, pending regulatory approvals. Despite Freeport's sliding timeline, analysts have long said it would likely take until the first or second quarter of 2023 to restart the plant due to the large amount of work needed to satisfy federal regulators, including training staff in new safety procedures. Whenever Freeport returns, U.S. gas demand will jump. The plant can turn about 2.1 billion cubic feet per day s(bcfd) of gas into LNG, which is about 2% of U.S. daily production. Freeport has filed reports with federal regulators about what it is doing to return the plant but has kept those filings confidential for competitive reasons. A growing number of local and environmental groups, however, have asked regulators in recent weeks to make those filings public so they can comment on whether they think Freeport is doing enough to safely restart the plant. Even though some vessels have turned away from Freeport, several tankers, including Prism Diversity, Prism Courage and Prism Agility, were still waiting in the Gulf of Mexico to pick up LNG from Freeport. Some have been there since early November. Other ships, meanwhile, were still sailing toward Freeport, including Prism Brilliance, Kmarin Diamond and Wilforce, and are expected to reach the plant in late January. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would ease from 120.8 bcfd this week to 119.7 bcfd next week as the weather turns milder before rising to 125.1 bcfd in two weeks when the weather turns colder. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Jan 13 Jan 6 Jan 13 average (Forecast) (Actual) Jan 13 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): -74 +11 -156 -203 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,828 2,902 2,839 2,786 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average +1.5% -1.4% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2022 (2018-2022) Henry Hub 3.56 3.70 4.26 6.54 3.60 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 20.42 21.41 28.25 40.50 14.39 US natural gas futures were trading around $3.5/MMBtu, closing in on their lowest level since June 2021, as soaring domestic production offset prospects of a recovery in demand amid colder weather. US natural gas production is likely to grow more than 2% this year to a record daily average of 100.3 billion cubic feet, the Energy Information Administration said. At the same time, EIA data showed that utilities unexpectedly injected 11 bcf into storage last week. Adding to the bearish tone, the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas, forced to go offline in June following a fire, again delayed the restart to the second half of January, leaving more supply on the domestic market. Traders worry the plant will only be back online during the first or second quarter due to the need for further work to satisfy federal regulators. US natural gas prices are down more than 20% since the beginning of 2023, the worst start of a year on record. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN January 14, 2023 https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/TotalEnergies-To-Supply-LNG-To-Germanys-Newest-Import-Terminal.html TotalEnergies To Supply LNG To Germany’s Newest Import Terminal By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jan 13, 2023, 10:00 AM CST TotalEnergies will supply LNG to Germany's newest LNG import terminal in Lubmin. The project, whose inauguration will be attended by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, will make TotalEnergies one of Germany’s main LNG suppliers. Separately, Switzerland-based trader MET Group said today it had secured binding long-term LNG capacities at the Lubmin terminal. Join Our Community TotalEnergies will supply LNG and is contributing a floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) to the Deutsche Ostsee LNG import terminal in Lubmin on the German Baltic Sea coast, which will be inaugurated on Saturday, the French supermajor said on Friday. The project, whose inauguration will be attended by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, will make TotalEnergies one of Germany’s main LNG suppliers, the French company said. Last month, TotalEnergies delivered the Neptune – one of its two FSRUs – to Deutsche ReGas, the operator of the Deutsche Ostsee LNG terminal. The vessel has an annual regasification capacity of 5 billion cubic meters of gas, enough to cover about 5% of German demand, TotalEnergies says. Following Deutsche ReGas’s open season procedure, TotalEnergies has also contracted regasification capacity of 2.6 billion cubic meters of gas per year and began to deliver LNG from its global integrated portfolio to the Lubmin terminal. Separately, Switzerland-based trader MET Group said today it had secured binding long-term LNG capacities at the Lubmin terminal. Germany has been racing to build and start up LNG import terminals to secure natural gas supplies after Russia halted the Nord Stream pipeline deliveries last year. Last week, Germany welcomed the first tanker carrying LNG at the newly opened LNG import terminal at Wilhelmshaven, with the cargo arriving from the Calcasieu Pass export facility in the United States. Germany inaugurated its first floating LNG import terminal at Wilhelmshaven a week before Christmas as Europe’s biggest economy looks to cut reliance on Russian gas and as Moscow halted supply via the Nord Stream pipeline in early September. Other LNG terminals are also planned in Germany, which was rather reluctant to commit to LNG import facilities before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. After the war started, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland, and countries in southern Europe hastened to bring forward or dust off plans to build floating LNG terminals to have enough regasification capacity to replace the lost volumes of Russian pipeline gas. By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com More Top Reads From Oilprice.com: Full U.S. Energy Independence Could Have Huge Ramifications For The Middle East 3 Pipeline Stocks To Watch In 2023 2023: Expect A Financial Crash And Major Changes In Global Energy Markets Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN January 16, 2023 https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/siberia-records-minus-80-degrees-talk-polar-vortex-grows MAPS AND IMAGES in article... Siberia Records Minus-80 Degrees As Talk Of Polar Vortex Grows by Tyler Durden Saturday, Jan 14, 2023 - 06:35 AM ******************************************************* Odessa American - TEXAS - Jan 14 https://www.yahoo.com/news/oil-prospects-much-better-natural-010200600.html Oil prospects much better than natural gas Oil prices will probably be strong all year, maybe reaching $100 a barrel, but gas is in the dumps with no immediate chance of escape. "For this time of year, gas prices are bizarrely low," said Odessa oilman Kirk Edwards, referring to Wednesday's $3.681 per thousand cubic feet following peaks of over $8 last year... ...Oil looks to be finding a footing with a base in the $70s and it still has so much room to run up because of the situation in Europe, what the Biden Administration has done to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and China coming back to full strength... ...Edwards said gas is getting whomped by the abnormally warm American winter and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's continued shutdown of the Freeport Liquefied Natural Gas Development on the Gulf Coast after the plant completed repairs months ago from fire damages last June. Having slapped down 64 new requirements just as the plant was about to resume operations in mid-November, Edwards said, the FERC is topping Emperor Nero, who fiddled as Rome burned, by fiddling around while Europeans freeze. "Natural gas is the opposite from oil with the Freeport LNG facility, the biggest LNG exporter in the country, being held in limbo by the Biden Administration," he said. "The administration will not let them get going and that is two billion cubic feet of gas per day that's not getting liquefied. "It's backing up into the American domestic system with a very dampening effect, especially for guys drilling in the Permian Basin who are seeing literally zero prices for their gas. "I don't know what the holdup is," Edwards said. "They're not going public about it, but at the same time the Freeport LNG is not being allowed to operate." The FERC did not respond to a recent request from the Odessa American for an explanation. Asked if Biden and the FERC are punishing Freeport LNG for the fire, Edwards said, "It makes sense if they want to keep the natural gas price low in the United States because that's exactly what they're doing, but our European friends are freezing to death because they can't get gas." As one of the Panhandle's largest natural gas producers, Edwards predicted that oil will stay between $75 and $100 per barrel for the rest of this year as gas flutters from $3 to $8 per thousand cubic feet. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN January 17, 2023 See WEATHER MODELS in article https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/us-natgas-prices-rise-models-suggest-polar-vortex-unload-us US NatGas Prices Rise As Models Suggest 'Polar Vortex To Unload On US' by Tyler Durden Monday, Jan 16, 2023 - 03:15 PM Natural gas futures bounced off 18-month lows during the holiday session period as the latest runs of long-term weather models suggest winter might not be over for the Lower 48. US NatGas futures for February delivery moved up 21 cents to $3.63 per million British thermal units. The price is now trading above the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of the main drop from the high of $10 in August 2022 and the low of $1.43 in June 2020. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN January 17, 2023 Tuesday Jan 17 morning in US - EUROPE Dutch TTF natural gas futures fell to €54/MWh, the lowest since September 2021 as more LNG cargos may be heading to Europe. Full stockpiles in China are forcing importers to divert February and March shipments to Europe. Gas storages across Europe hovered around 82% capacity in the last few weeks, up from 50% a year ago and well above the five-year seasonal norm of 70% as an unusually mild winter helped to lower heating demand and record LNG imports and a rise in renewable capacity boosted supplies. Europe was the largest customer in the global liquefied natural gas market in 2022, with the EU accounting for 24% of global LNG imports. Although the worst seems to be over for now, the outlook for 2023 remains challenging as a cold snap could raise heating demand. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN January 18, 2023 https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/natgas-flows-start-freeport-lngs-long-shut-export-plant NatGas Flows Start To Freeport LNG's Long-Shut Export Plant by Tyler Durden Tuesday, Jan 17, 2023 - 12:25 PM The restart of Freeport LNG, a US liquefied natural gas export terminal on the Texas Gulf Coast, could be nearing as new data via Reuters showed pipelines flowing to the facility started receiving natural gas over the holiday weekend. On Jan. 14, NatGas began flowing to Freeport and could reach as much as 69 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) on Tuesday, Reuters data showed. A source told Reuters that Freeport received NatGas flows in December to maintain a flare system. We noted activity at the plant last week might indicate restart was nearing. Freeport LNG officials are still sticking with their target for resuming production in the second half of the month. The export facility was shuttered after an explosion on June 8, 2022. Despite the growing anticipation of resuming production soon, Freeport LNG would still face regulatory hurdles to restart the plant. Three LNG market participants told S&P Global that Freeport had a higher probability of restarting in February or March -- none of that would come as a surprise considering the constant delays. The Quintana, Texas, facility accounts for 15% or so of all US LNG exports. A restart of the facility would be a bullish catalyst for US NatGas prices which have been stuck in a bearish downward spiral since last August -- touching an 18-month low last week. US NatGas prices are up 8.5% on the session, primarily because of longer-term models suggesting the possibility of colder weather. However, Houston-based energy firm Criterion Research had this to say about the Freeport developments: We noted that Freeport LNG began to receive marginal gas over the weekend, with 15-35 Mmcf/d being delivered via Gulf South's Coastal Bend Header Pipeline. This is not the first time we've seen flows of that magnitude, with Freeport flowing similar volumes for two other periods since going offline in June 2022. Freeport representatives have continued to affirm the second half of the January restart timeline, officially laid out in December 2022. However, several outlets, including ours, have doubts about that possibility. Based on the latest imagery of the facility -- Freeport is still missing several key pieces of equipment needed for a restart that could delay initial liquefaction operations into February or March 2023. When will Freeport be fully back in-service? That's a difficult question, but when it does come online, it would be a bullish catalyst for NatGas. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN January 18, 2023 Wed Jan 18 - Market Open US natural gas futures were trading below $3.4/MMBtu, closing in on their lowest level since June 2021, as soaring domestic production and high storage levels offset prospects of a recovery in demand amid forecasts of a cold spell. US natural gas production is likely to grow more than 2% this year to a record daily average of 100.3 billion cubic feet, the Energy Information Administration said. At the same time, EIA data showed that utilities unexpectedly injected 11 bcf into storage last week. Adding to the bearish tone, the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas, forced to go offline in June following a fire, again delayed the restart to the second half of January, leaving more supply on the domestic market. Still, arctic weather will move into the United States next week, resulting in below-normal temperatures, which, in turn, should boost demand for heating and push prices higher. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN January 18, 2023 https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Natural-Gas-Demand-Set-To-Climb-As-Cold-Weather-Closes-In.html U.S. Natural Gas Demand Set To Climb As Cold Weather Closes In By Irina Slav - Jan 18, 2023, 2:22 AM CST A forecast for a coming cold spell prompted a rise in the price of natural gas in the United States on Tuesday as it pointed to stronger demand for the commodity. On Wednesday morning, however, natural gas prices were falling once again as mild weather set in and storage levels remained above the five-year average. There will be some upward pressure on U.S. natural gas prices throughout the month as the cold spell is forecast for the final week of January. Even with a brief rebound, natural gas prices in the United States remain much lower than they were last year, when at one point they flirted with $10 per million British thermal units as U.S. LNG exports broke record after record to satisfy Europe’s demand for gas. On Tuesday, the first trading day for this week in the U.S., natural gas futures were trading at close to $3.7 per mmBtu. In the early hours of Wednesday morning, those prices dropped back below $3.5. The weather forecast that pushed natural gas prices higher will begin to materialize this weekend, when Arctic weather will move down into the United States and more specifically into the western and central parts of the country. “Cold air will finally advance into the East next week, resulting in below normal temperatures covering most of the U.S.,” helped by “several reinforcing cold shots into the northern U.S.,” NatGasWeather said, as quoted by Natural Gas Intelligence. The cold spell will probably only have a temporary effect on gas prices because production continues to grow and limit the upside potential of prices. At the same time, with prices so much lower now, there may be a limit to production growth in turn, Reuters reported earlier this month. U.S. natural gas production this year is seen gaining 2 percent, and another 2 percent in 2024. However, if prices remain low, producers may get discouraged to boost production in a market that may well swing into a surplus soon. "2023 is gearing up to be oversupplied by more than 5.0 bcfd (billion cubic feet per day), which justifies the downward trend in prices," an energy consultant from East Daley Capital told Reuters. By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com More Top Reads From Oilprice.com: Central Asia’s Glaciers Are Melting At Astonishing Rates How Long Can Russia Afford To Continue Its War In Ukraine? Bullish Catalysts Are Mounting For Copper Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN January 18, 2023 https://oilprice.com/Energy/Gas-Prices/EIA-Soaring-Production-Will-Keep-Natural-Gas-Prices-In-Check.html EIA: Soaring Production Will Keep Natural Gas Prices In Check By Charles Kennedy - Jan 18, 2023, 10:00 AM CST Natural gas prices have shaken off the geopolitical risk premium at the beginning of 2023. EIA: continued increases in U.S. dry gas production are expected to outpace domestic demand plus exports. The EIA expects the Henry Hub benchmark price to average $4.90 per MMBtu this year. Join Our Community Continued increases in U.S. dry natural gas production are expected to outpace domestic demand and exports this year and in 2024 according to the EIA Continued increases in U.S. dry natural gas production are expected to outpace domestic demand and exports this year and next, sending the average U.S. benchmark price lower than in 2022, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday. The EIA expects the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub price to average $4.90 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) this year, according to its January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The projected average would be more than $1.50/MMBtu lower compared to the 2022 average of natural gas prices. In 2024, Henry Hub prices are expected to remain almost the same compared to 2023 levels, as U.S. production is set to continue growing, the EIA said. This year, prices are likely to average close to $5.00/MMBtu in the first quarter, due to higher demand in the winter and LNG exports at near-capacity volumes. The return of Freeport LNG after a fire in June 2022 will also drive higher natural gas demand in the first quarter, the EIA said. As the winter ends in the second quarter of 2023, and as LNG exports will stay flat once Freeport LNG comes back online, natural gas prices are expected to drop in Q2, also because U.S. production will continue to rise, according to EIA’s estimates. U.S. natural gas prices are back to reflecting the domestic supply and demand balances, shaking off – for now – the geopolitical premium that ruled the energy and natural gas markets throughout most of 2022 after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February. Early on Wednesday, the U.S. benchmark price was tumbling by 4.10% to $3.433/MMBtu, as demand is light in the U.S. right now. For the week January 18 to January 24, overall U.S. natural gas demand is expected to be very light through Friday, and then light from Saturday to Tuesday, according to NatGasWeather.com. By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com More Top Reads From Oilprice.com: Venezuela’s Vast Oil Wealth Could Become The World’s Largest Stranded Asset IEA Sees Global Oil Demand Hitting A Record High In 2023 How Long Can Russia Afford To Continue Its War In Ukraine? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Nolan + 2,441 TN January 19, 2023 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-u-natgas-futures-drop-200447241.html Wed, January 18, 2023 at 2:04 PM CST REUTERS UPDATE 1-U.S. natgas futures drop 8% to 18-month low on forecasts for less demand (Adds closing prices) Jan 18 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures plunged about 8% to an 18-month low on Wednesday on forecasts for less heating demand in late January than previously expected. Adding to the price drop, a growing number of analysts have said they do not expect Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas to restart until February or later even though the company has said repeatedly that the liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant was on track to exit its seven-month outage in the second half of January, pending regulatory approvals. Whenever Freeport returns, demand for U.S. gas will jump, which should cause prices to rise. The plant can turn about 2.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas into LNG, which is about 2% of U.S. daily production. Front-month gas futures for February delivery fell 27.5 cents, or 7.7%, to settle at $3.311 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since June 22, 2021. That price drop pushed the contract back into technically oversold territory with a relative strength index (RSI) below 30 for the 12th time in 14 days. It also continues the record volatility seen last year, with the contract now up or down over 5% on six of the 11 trading days in 2023. With colder weather coming, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would jump from 121.4 bcfd this week to 128.7 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Tuesday. However, some market participants gave up hope that extreme cold will bring massive price spikes later this winter and the premium on March futures over April , which the industry calls the widow maker, fell to a record low of 2 cents per mmBtu. "The last contract on the winter strip (March) should never trade at a discount to the first month on the summer strip (April) ... but that is what is threatening," Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho, said last week. The industry uses the March-April spread to bet on the winter heating season when demand for gas peaks. It calls the spread the "widow maker" because rapid price moves resulting from changing weather forecasts have forced some speculators out of business. Among them was the Amaranth hedge fund, which lost more than $6 billion on gas futures in 2006. Traders said the biggest market uncertainty remains when the Freeport plant will return after shutting due to a fire on June 8, 2022. Gas started flowing to the Freeport plant on Jan. 14, according to data from Refinitiv, but was only being used to maintain the flare system, according to a source familiar with the plant. Although Freeport LNG says the plant is still on track to restart in the second half of January, pending regulatory approvals, that restart timeline has been delayed many times from October to November to December and most recently to January. Freeport has not yet filed a request with federal regulators to restart the plant, according to a source familiar with the company's filings. Even when the company was saying the plant could restart last year, many analysts said it would likely take Freeport until the first or second quarter of 2023 to get the plant ready due to the large amount of work needed to satisfy federal regulators, including training staff in new safety procedures. Even though some vessels have turned away from Freeport in recent weeks, a few tankers, including Prism Diversity, Prism Courage and Prism Agility, were still waiting in the Gulf of Mexico to pick up LNG from the plant. Some have been there since early November. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Jan 13 Jan 6 Jan 13 average (Forecast) (Actual) Jan 13 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): -71 +11 -156 -203 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,831 2,902 2,839 2,786 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
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