It’s ‘Foolish’ to Fight Dollar Dominance as Rally Picks Up Speed What do you think? Who benefits?l Who loses?

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

8 hours ago, Wombat One said:

If Russia is the world's fifth largest economy, why is it that the rubble never made it into the top 10 most traded currencies? Australia is 5th. 

It inevitably will now that the Russian commodities are increasingly quoted in them. There is also going to be a lot more yuan, too.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

4 hours ago, frankfurter said:

True. Australia is blessed with an abundance of resources. But such are rather useless without a purpose and markets. Considering Morriscum alienated the country from its largest market, alternate sources are plentiful, and the world is at the precipice of an epic depression, the question is how will Australia fare in future?

The only countries deliberately provoking a major war are the AUKUS.

They should join Austria. Most Americans confuse the two anyway, and it is their opinion that matters.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

8 hours ago, Wombat One said:

• Chemicals & Resources›
• Mining, Metals & Minerals

PREMIUM

Global uranium resources by country 2019

Published by 

M. Garside

 

 

,

 Jul 1, 2022

 Australia has the largest known recoverable resources of uranium worldwide, with 1.69 million metric tons in 2019. The total known uranium resources in the United States were approximately 47,900 metric tons in 2019, down from 207,400 metric tons in 2013.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/264781/countries-with-the-largest-uranium-reserves/

In 2020, your claim was revealed to be bunk? I have no other explanation for previous #1 disappearing from the list alltogeter.

[Michael Sanches + 187]

The dollar will dominate until it collapses. Then the Euro will take over.

1. "The dollar will dominate." Like they say, "The US is the worst country in the world, except for all the others." As we deteriorate, we will still lead in freedom and opportunity. In addition, size matters:

US GDP = $25 Trillion
China GDP = $17 Trillion
Japan GDP = $5 Trillion
Germany GDP = $5 Trillion

2. "until it collapses" This officially started during the run offs for Georgia Senators in 2020, when Biden came out and explicitly said that if you want more relief checks, you will vote Democrat. While the practice had been going on for awhile, that was the Lexington and Concord, the shot heard around the world, of our self destruction.

“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury. After that, the majority always votes for the candidate promising the most benefits with the result the democracy collapses because of the loose fiscal policy ensuing, always to be followed by a dictatorship, then a monarchy."

Also, see usdebtclock.org

As Einstein said:

“The most powerful force in the Universe is compound interest.” 

3. "Then the Euro will take over" The center of finance will then migrate to the most free area, not China nor Russia. Japan is out because England and France have nuclear weapons and Japan doesn't.

(I know I will get flamed for this. But, I will also add that I believe we are approaching the End Times and Europe is the center of finance and commerce in those times.)

But, even without my End Times belief, the rest holds up.

[SUZNV + 1,197]

12 hours ago, Michael Sanches said:

The dollar will dominate until it collapses. Then the Euro will take over.

1. "The dollar will dominate." Like they say, "The US is the worst country in the world, except for all the others." As we deteriorate, we will still lead in freedom and opportunity. In addition, size matters:

US GDP = $25 Trillion
China GDP = $17 Trillion
Japan GDP = $5 Trillion
Germany GDP = $5 Trillion

2. "until it collapses" This officially started during the run offs for Georgia Senators in 2020, when Biden came out and explicitly said that if you want more relief checks, you will vote Democrat. While the practice had been going on for awhile, that was the Lexington and Concord, the shot heard around the world, of our self destruction.

“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury. After that, the majority always votes for the candidate promising the most benefits with the result the democracy collapses because of the loose fiscal policy ensuing, always to be followed by a dictatorship, then a monarchy."

Also, see usdebtclock.org

As Einstein said:

“The most powerful force in the Universe is compound interest.” 

3. "Then the Euro will take over" The center of finance will then migrate to the most free area, not China nor Russia. Japan is out because England and France have nuclear weapons and Japan doesn't.

(I know I will get flamed for this. But, I will also add that I believe we are approaching the End Times and Europe is the center of finance and commerce in those times.)

But, even without my End Times belief, the rest holds up.

And what advantage does Euro have over the rest for center of finance? I don't love or hate Euro as nothing is personal, just can't see any escape road for Euro in both demographically and geopolitically

- There is no large millennial generation in Euro, in an aging population where boomer in the West Bloc tried to match the welfare with East Bloc in younger time. Center right in France , Germany, Sweden is even more left than Dem in the US and social welfare always good in young booming time, not in an ageing demographics.

-No cheap abundant resources in both energy nor raw material to boost up the economy in recession time and depend from cheap energy from Russia for manufacturing advantages.

-Unlike Japan has been invest oversea in younger developing economy for over 30 years to provide aging population retirement, Euro kept jobs and investment within itself until very recently, and the whole economy is  structuring depends on cheap energy from Russia to chase the political will of green energy. Arguably this is why  Putin has the confidence to attack Ukraine in the first place as his best weapon besides nuclear is natural gas. He only failed in executing the plan to a quick victory.

-Bureaucracy between ECB and fiscal policies among member. Italy gov will have to issue higher bond yield than Germany, in a weaker economy with more debt. What should ECB do? Selling Germany bond and buy Italia bond to help to increase Germany bond yield and decrease Italia bond yield? This means Germany tax payers will bail out Italian public debt. 

-US Gov and FED is not responsible for USD nominated debt bubble in oversea, in the decentralize "cashless" Eurodollar ledger system existed since 1950s (and occasionally caused troubles since with the greatest is in the GFC 2008) , by using US treasury bonds as collateral or currency among themselves. This creates a big demand for USD to pay back the USD nominated debt. USD "cash" only get out of US via import, remittance or paying treasury bond yield or maturity. This the only reason why the BIS, WEF, SWIFT, Basel 1,2,3 etc were invented and  based in Europe, long before Euro currency existed. In many Fed records in the last few decades, the theme was always we cannot do anything about it as it is out of our control and we don't have any tool, with the exception of The Dollar Swap Line in 2007, where the Fed want to have a new tool to put USD reserve out to other central banks to reduce the US treasury collateral shortages. 

And most of real USD came back onshore to buy US assets such as US treasury, stocks or real estates etc., especially in economics turbulence or Fed increase interest --> increase the Cantillon effect ---> reduce the GDP shares for middle class. 

Eurodollar system concept is not new, There was a cashless payments in the Early Modern Low Countries, 1500-1800, ghost money, all managed by ledger system based on "fiat" credit.

If you want to learn more about geopolitics, search for Peter Zeihan podcast or read his books. If you want to understand what Fed thinks about Eurodollar system, search for Eurodollar university (Jeff Snider and  Emil Kalinowski) or Alfonso Peccatiello in Blockworks. It is best to search for conversation between Alfonso (Italian) and Jeff Snider (American) . It is fine if you disagree with them and can point out what parts they got it wrong. One thing I love about Jeff is he digs in  lots of FED FOMC statements in many decades with data to back up. 

In FIAT world, all the governments and central banks can do is to pretend everything is under their control until SHTF and they can no longer hide it.  Govs want reelection while central banks want their tools will be efficient psychologically . 

I have high hope in the BRICS to put pressure on reducing paper gold manipulation by western gold custodies by doing physical settling among themselves. They cannot do paper gold settling among each others like the paper gold system because what if one member got bankruptcy and decide to default the debt and no country can have a navy capacity to reach the other? And all the settling will be protected on US guarded sea routes so its existence depends on  US navy allows it.  They are trying to find away to bypass the scarcity of US dollar offshore when interest is up. World wide economy only benefit when dxy is down as inflation is the best way to reduce the debt eventually. 

Euro only hope for a good retirement economy  is to have a US government that pro globalization hegemony on Euro behave using US future taxes and their nightmare would be to have a US government concentrating on main street and  reduce US international obligations and public debt. The higher US public debt, the higher chance US will choose the second option.  

Govs around the world  will blame US for their failures no matter what. What other choice do they have? Admit that they screwed up with bureaucracy and political wills for decades?

 

Edited August 31, 2022 by SUZNV

[Michael Sanches + 187]

5 hours ago, SUZNV said:

And what advantage does Euro have over the rest for center of finance? I don't love or hate Euro as nothing is personal, just can't see any escape road for Euro in both demographically and geopolitically.

 

I agree, right now the Euro looks as strong as a wet noodle. However, the End Times posit that Europe will be centered around Germany & Russia. Russian energy, German Industry, and English Finance are a powerful combo. You throw in the Chinese will be looking and influencing westward to ward the ME and the ME and its oil will be the focal point things look very plausible.

Energy is the key to power and prosperity. Even Iran is close to getting the bomb AND fully tapping its oil.

[SUZNV + 1,197]

2 hours ago, Michael Sanches said:

I agree, right now the Euro looks as strong as a wet noodle. However, the End Times posit that Europe will be centered around Germany & Russia. Russian energy, German Industry, and English Finance are a powerful combo. You throw in the Chinese will be looking and influencing westward to ward the ME and the ME and its oil will be the focal point things look very plausible.

Energy is the key to power and prosperity. Even Iran is close to getting the bomb AND fully tapping its oil.

Yes, energy is everything yet biggest problem of Euro in the past, now and future is bureaucrac. Venezuela has abundant of energy yet without leadership and social morale: "Gov will buy us things we need", it failed big.

Europe had a chance to be better after the Cold War but it was the bureaucracy in Euro persuaded Clinton to cast pro West Boris Yeltsin  aside which leaded to Putin's Russia and the current bloody war is a  side effect. Bureaucracy leaded to decades of structuring US guarding for Europe to depend on cheap energy in Russia to the Great Leap Forward to neither cheap nor green energy and when they messed things up and get stuck, they want a great reset where everyone owns nothing and be happy, assuming US politicians would join them aka majority of US citizens would vote for that idea and pay taxes for it.

I am curious if Europe elites will successful export and convert American to join the "world harmony" or US individualism & isolationism will emerge.  Isn't it the deepest level why Blue and Red splitting in the US? US culture missed the taste of socialism movement in 19 and 20 centuries while Europe and Asia cultures missed the taste of individualism in US as each nation in Europe needed a big government to conquer their neighbors or colonials, similar to East Asia. Historically they could not afford individualism as their neighbor in crisis would invade and steal their wealth. US doesn't have this problem since independence. Many small countries should thanks the order since WW2 so they don't need to worry someone will steal their wealth. 

US people take freedom seriously at a different level than Asia or Europe and the ideology of "The nanny state" ideology  only started spreading in the US since the cold war. I still cannot see how euro will replace pound, rouble yen and come on the top of USD. Even if the world harmony grand scheme success, I still see USD as global currency.

US has cheap energy like Russia, has the industry like Germany since WW2 and inheritance Finance and management from the UK, plus Jews. 93% of the US has some sort of side hustle in 2022 and 80% of millionaire or billionaire are self made. What motivated them if not the American Dream? US has been sucking out talents (and illegal immigrants) around the world with 2 things: freedom and income. 

About  China, most of rich Chinese stored their assets in oversea and capital flight has been much bigger in the recent years which leads to HongKong security laws while middle class Chinese people stored their wealth  in empty apartments. Another example about the failure of a planned economy trying to sacrifice freedom for prosperity. In the US the productive ages is about 50s to 60s, in China the productive ages is 25s to 40s, max. Too late to transit to consumption economy where the percentage of household wealth is too low compare to developed countries, even in good time.  The world wouldn't have current living standard without China. 

Maybe the global prosperity started after the cold war  and peaked at 2008. As long as I keep my expectation low, I embrace for the US The Fourth Turning. Who knows, it always can be worse. 

Edited August 31, 2022 by SUZNV

[Hotone + 412]

23 hours ago, Michael Sanches said:

The dollar will dominate until it collapses. Then the Euro will take over.

1. "The dollar will dominate." Like they say, "The US is the worst country in the world, except for all the others." As we deteriorate, we will still lead in freedom and opportunity. In addition, size matters:

US GDP = $25 Trillion
China GDP = $17 Trillion
Japan GDP = $5 Trillion
Germany GDP = $5 Trillion

2. "until it collapses" This officially started during the run offs for Georgia Senators in 2020, when Biden came out and explicitly said that if you want more relief checks, you will vote Democrat. While the practice had been going on for awhile, that was the Lexington and Concord, the shot heard around the world, of our self destruction.

“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury. After that, the majority always votes for the candidate promising the most benefits with the result the democracy collapses because of the loose fiscal policy ensuing, always to be followed by a dictatorship, then a monarchy."

Also, see usdebtclock.org

As Einstein said:

“The most powerful force in the Universe is compound interest.” 

3. "Then the Euro will take over" The center of finance will then migrate to the most free area, not China nor Russia. Japan is out because England and France have nuclear weapons and Japan doesn't.

(I know I will get flamed for this. But, I will also add that I believe we are approaching the End Times and Europe is the center of finance and commerce in those times.)

But, even without my End Times belief, the rest holds up.

I am not going to bet on the Euro.  The Europeans already give out more largesse than America.  Forgive a portion of student debt?  How about totally free education like in Germany?  Subsidies to lower health care costs?  How about totally free medical care  like the NHS?  

The European economies have been hit hard by Covid, and now the energy price shock, and climate change.  What Macron said about the end of abundance applies not only to France but the whole of Europe.  It will be interesting to observe how Europe copes with what's to come.