Pandemonium in Venezuela.

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All i can say about this discussion is that venezuelan people in its majority is considered too pro U.S. so in any prospect of an intervention the U.S. forces need to be very careful about its targets and not incurring in those damn "collateral damages" like in Belgrade for example. This is a scenario i dont really want for Venezuela, but definitely another one more precise and accurate in order to push these criminals out of power that have sequestered Venezuela. 

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19 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Mike, I submit that arriving at the port with supplies and personnel, not only soldiers armed for war, as Jan has suggested, is ringing the bell and is not barging in.  Just my opinion.

Dan, Thank you, I do appreciate different opinions, mostly because they offer the most opportunity for growing my own knowledge.   But let me try again, ....you come home to find a complete stranger in your house with your family.  He says he's there to help.

Your reply to him is what?

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(edited)

17 minutes ago, Mike Marcellus said:

Dan, Thank you, I do appreciate different opinions, mostly because they offer the most opportunity for growing my own knowledge.   But let me try again, ....you come home to find a complete stranger in your house with your family.  He says he's there to help.

Your reply to him is what?

Mike, Thank You.  This is the attitude that gets things done, but with considerations for all involved.  Who, in your newly presented scenario, is coming home?  To take it literally, nobody would dream of going into people's houses.  It starts at the port and proceeds publicly forward only if the population indicates that they want it to proceed.  The proposal for this stage of operations, I would strongly argue, is NOT military and is not an invasion of any sort.

The "stranger" is not a stranger, but someone known the world over, and especially in the South and Central American region, as being good samaritans.  Since these known people would not be in my house but waiting at and working from the curb, my response would be "Come up on the porch.  Can I get you some tea?".

Edited by Dan Warnick
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Note the last line in this statement:

image.png.c4226520db157753ce945825e502c4b2.png

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Have a read about the USNS Comfort at this Wiki.  Click on any of the photos and then you can page through the few they make available.  Also, if you do a search on YouTube you will find some tours of the inner workings of the ship and its people.

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(edited)

On 8/31/2018 at 3:32 AM, Epic said:

 

Lady Liberty says it best:

"Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"

 

I promise you, Jan, that the USA has lost her way.  But she can be restored.  Have faith.  There is yet time.

The USA will be back.  I figure it will take another five election cycles, and then the emotions will be spent, and the population worn out with the BS from the Clintonites and the Trumpians,  and a new Leader will emerge, some melding between Eisenhower and Kennedy, and we will once again be asking:  "I ask not what my country can do for me, but what I can do for my country."  And the Great Beginning will be there. And once again, the Americans will be the proud leaders of the rest of nations.  America is a can-do society.  We will dump the Deep State and their infernal computer surveillances,  and the thuggish bureaucrats, and go back to being free men. 

Edited by Jan van Eck
scrivener error
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1 hour ago, jose chalhoub said:

All i can say about this discussion is that venezuelan people in its majority is considered too pro U.S. so in any prospect of an intervention the U.S. forces need to be very careful about its targets and not incurring in those damn "collateral damages" like in Belgrade for example. This is a scenario i dont really want for Venezuela, but definitely another one more precise and accurate in order to push these criminals out of power that have sequestered Venezuela. 

Jose, be realistic.  Venezuela is collapsing at this instant.  It cannot grow its own food; easily 85% has been imported, and the importers are refusing to sell or ship  (especially from Brasil).  Some food gets smuggled in via Colombia, but that window is closing.  In six months you will have four million dead.  IN a year, 25 million. Do I sound alarmist?  Yes, but that probability is out there. 

Nobody is going to "invade" Venezuela in the sense of combat brigades landing with heavy artillery.  You are looking at roll-on, roll-off ferry boats loaded with food pulling up to the ferry dock in Barcelona and in Puerto La Cruz.  Does Maduro have thousands of soldiers with machine guns on those ports?  No, he doesn't.  There is not going to be any shoot-out. The boat ties up, the ramp goes down, and the food trucks roll off.  Everybody is hungry. What, you want to start shooting at the bread trucks?  Or, have a loaf of bread?  And some sliced meat? And some jam and milk and cheeses?  Nobody is going to fight food being unloaded. 

You are a soldier on the dock.  the ferry shows up, and someone walks up to you with a big basket of fresh foods, and says: "Here, take this home to your wife, there is more coming, be back tomorrow for another basket."  Do you say No?   I don't think so. Time to change sides and forget about Maduro.  

Stabilize the lightly-defended East, everyone switches sides, and the Word spreads into Caracas.  Maduro is history soon enough.  Figure three days.

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and no sign of that elusive 'petro'. Reuters did a 4-month investigation and can't find it traded anywhere 'real'. And the residents of the area where the oil is that is supposed to be backing the petro say they don't see any production activity. 

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I don't expect to be around in 'five election cycles' and really would like to see things become more clear long before then.  This is certainly too optimistic...

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First we have to understand that everything that is happening in Venezuela is by design. The progressive destruction of the economic framework on this country has been done flawless by late Chavez and now by Maduro, the objective was clear since the beggining, the inception of a new kind of social order, called 'socialismo del siglo XXI' which consist only in the perpetration of Maduro's Friends in the ruling of the country.

Now from an objective point of view, this model resembles a lot from the USSR and North Korea, they try to show muscle to the outside world but to their people there will be only missery and crumbs to live with, there should be no surprise in whatever horrorific policy or measure they might take, they know they can do it because there is no one who will stop them. 

Now, to understand why there will be no one to stop them, is the complex and genious part. As dark and evil Chavismo might be we have to acknowledge the geniousness is its execution. Maduro and Chavez have transformed Venezuela into its own murder accesory, by creating the most dramatic and sistematic corruption scheme of the century. In this scenario where almost everyone (with brains and power to do something about it) has some dirty laundry it is quite impossible to change the status quo from within. 

The oil industry in the country will continue to collapse no doubt, no matter how much reserves you throw into it, as the international isolation continues. In this scenario of a country, everything can go worst. 

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Hello, folks.  I'm new here.  I am interested in oil prices in general and Venezuelan oil prices in particular because I am interested in Venezuela.  I have been so since Maduro robbed the toy factory and handed out the toys to the kids for Christmas (¿2016?), and showing them how good their government is.  No!  I go back further than that... to when Chávez called our President Bush a devil.  I am interested in the bolívar soberano (VES) and its link to the petro  and the last's link to Venezuelan oil prices.  I don't think he can pull it off.  He based the petro on an oil price of USD 60 per barrel.  The last price I heard was USD 66.86. That's where I'm coming from.  I am fluent in Spanish.

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3 hours ago, DonBigotedelaLancha said:

 I don't think he can pull it off.  He based the petro on an oil price of USD 60 per barrel.  The last price I heard was USD 66.86. That's where I'm coming from.  I am fluent in Spanish.

Here's the thing, Robert.  It does not matter what the price of the oil is, if you cannot get it out of the ground, and if nobody wants to buy it.  At this point, the oil might as well not exist. All that that oil has, is some future value when this regime is gone, and responsible people can go back to pumping it and selling it.  Right now, what is the value of locked oil?  Pretty much useless, if you ask me. 

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2 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

Here's the thing, Robert.  It does not matter what the price of the oil is, if you cannot get it out of the ground, and if nobody wants to buy it.  At this point, the oil might as well not exist. All that that oil has, is some future value when this regime is gone, and responsible people can go back to pumping it and selling it.  Right now, what is the value of locked oil?  Pretty much useless, if you ask me. 

I took the price of USD 60/barrel for Venezuelan crude as a figure picked out the air by Maduro.  The subsequent USD 66.86 figure I assumed was the price that was actually paid (i.e. it was out of the ground), so that's good for Venezuela if true.  

Who doesn't want to buy Venezuelan crude?  It seems to me that they are having trouble pumping enough to satisfy demand and debt service.  I wonder how Venezuelan debt is denominated.  Is it based on USD X or some other currency, or is it based on X number of barrels of crude based upon the oil price at the time the debt was incurred.  I have a lot to learn.

The last figure I heard for the cost to produce a barrel of Venzuelan crude was USD 24.  

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6 hours ago, DonBigotedelaLancha said:

Hello, folks.  I'm new here.  I am interested in oil prices in general and Venezuelan oil prices in particular because I am interested in Venezuela.  I have been so since Maduro robbed the toy factory and handed out the toys to the kids for Christmas (¿2016?), and showing them how good their government is.  No!  I go back further than that... to when Chávez called our President Bush a devil.  I am interested in the bolívar soberano (VES) and its link to the petro  and the last's link to Venezuelan oil prices.  I don't think he can pull it off.  He based the petro on an oil price of USD 60 per barrel.  The last price I heard was USD 66.86. That's where I'm coming from.  I am fluent in Spanish.

Try Bitcoin instead......it makes about as much sense.

Con Mucho Gusto Senor.

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4 minutes ago, Glenn Ellis said:

Try Bitcoin instead......it makes about as much sense.

Con Mucho Gusto Senor.

so funny... of course people have been mining bitcoin ethereum dash ripple and myriads of other cryptos since long. Petros no way. Just a freaking scam. 

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45 minutes ago, DonBigotedelaLancha said:

I took the price of USD 60/barrel for Venezuelan crude as a figure picked out the air by Maduro.  The subsequent USD 66.86 figure I assumed was the price that was actually paid (i.e. it was out of the ground), so that's good for Venezuela if true.  

Who doesn't want to buy Venezuelan crude?  It seems to me that they are having trouble pumping enough to satisfy demand and debt service.  I wonder how Venezuelan debt is denominated.  Is it based on USD X or some other currency, or is it based on X number of barrels of crude based upon the oil price at the time the debt was incurred.  I have a lot to learn.

The last figure I heard for the cost to produce a barrel of Venzuelan crude was USD 24.  

the amount of barrels per day extracted from the orinoco belt hardly reaches the millions of barrels per day, just powe point showing reserves thats it, you need to have trust you need to create a proper environment not just bla bla. 

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On 8/30/2018 at 7:54 AM, TXPower said:

 Jon’s Van Eck’s logic concerning U.S. Military intervention in Venezuela, which he fleshed out in a similar thread a couple of weeks back, was solid.  Although I’m loathe to commit us to a conflict that will definitely cost American lives, the situation in Venezuela is dire and will become worse. From a humanitarian standpoint, we should go.

Strategically speaking, I have often wondered why we will travel to the other side of the world to intervene in the sandbox but rarely committ so completely in our own hemisphere.   The fact that Cuban thugs are on the ground in Venezuela supporting the thug Maduro and China and Russia are trying to influence and horn in on the action there makes the idea of U.S. intervention there elementary.

Why would we not want to help ease human suffering, hamdicap socialism/communism and develope a strong relationship with the new government of a country sitting on one of the largest known oil reserves in the world?

We have sacrificed our kids and indebted our grandkids on much larger gambles that have paid significantly less elsewhere, why not in our own neighborhood.  Or do we need to see Chinese and Russian military bases built in Venezuela, other south and Central American countries before we decide to act.

General/President Eisenhower and Allan Dulles (his brother JOHN FOSTER DULLES was Ike's Secretary of State at the time)  had that same strategy, which led to JFK holding the bag @ The Bay Of Pigs, in 1961. The Fidelistas knew all about it, having Cuban intell agents in the CIA training camps in Honduras & Nicaragua. Fidel puffed on his cigar during the whole episode. Sadly, an American pilot lost his life, as the president only authorized six fighter jets, no markings, to cover the boatload of "liberators" on the beach.

I have listened, to the tape of the presidents condolence call, to that pilots widow.

A sitting U.S. Senator in 1958-1960, having NO knowledge of the plan before being elected President.........Hmmmm, wonder then why after the failed "invasion" Dulles & John McCone abruptly left the CIA?

But I digress.

With  Rosneft holding a 49% stake in Citgo, with the Chinese having a significant interest in oil or cash for their investment in Venezuela, wonder what THEIR reaction would be to a USA led "intervention"? NOT to mention the Fidelistas..........

As I have said earlier, in another post, the same failed logic, got us into difficulty in many parts of the world. Sadly, I was an instrument of that policy.

The result is always the same.......

If Nelson Rockafeller, Howard Hughes, and Erle P. Halliburton were alive today,

SOCNY, Hughes Tool Co, and Halliburton, might lead the way.

They did, after WWII.

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On 8/31/2018 at 8:22 AM, jose chalhoub said:

i mean i dont want more suffering for my country and any military intervention will cause definitely that, although i think there's no other way to take out these thugs from power. They are pretty sure they will cling to power for long time, that's the worse. They think they are eternal. 

"The Ugly American"~ I respectfully request, that some members here, review that movie.

"The Wild Geese"~ with Sir Richard Burton, & Sir Roger Moore come to mind as well.

The setting was a fictional country in Africa, but the motives are the same. GREED>

Might as well be Venezuela. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

We did not "intervene" in Nicaragua when the Sandanista leader Ortega seized power.

Reagan did invade Grenada, to rescue U. S. medical students, not to furment a revolution.

Invading Panama, to "arrest" "Pineapple" General Norieaga>>>>.  WELLLLLLLL>>>>>

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43 minutes ago, Glenn Ellis said:

General/President Eisenhower and Allan Dulles (his brother JOHN FOSTER DULLES was Ike's Secretary of State at the time)  had that same strategy, which led to JFK holding the bag @ The Bay Of Pigs, in 1961. The Fidelistas knew all about it, having Cuban intell agents in the CIA training camps in Honduras & Nicaragua. Fidel puffed on his cigar during the whole episode. Sadly, an American pilot lost his life, as the president only authorized six fighter jets, no markings, to cover the boatload of "liberators" on the beach.

I have listened, to the tape of the presidents condolence call, to that pilots widow.

A sitting U.S. Senator in 1958-1960, having NO knowledge of the plan before being elected President.........Hmmmm, wonder then why after the failed "invasion" Dulles & John McCone abruptly left the CIA?

But I digress.

With  Rosneft holding a 49% stake in Citgo, with the Chinese having a significant interest in oil or cash for their investment in Venezuela, wonder what THEIR reaction would be to a USA led "intervention"? NOT to mention the Fidelistas..........

As I have said earlier, in another post, the same failed logic, got us into difficulty in many parts of the world. Sadly, I was an instrument of that policy.

The result is always the same.......

If Nelson Rockafeller, Howard Hughes, and Erle P. Halliburton were alive today,

SOCNY, Hughes Tool Co, and Halliburton, might lead the way.

They did, after WWII.

We don't need another Bay of Pigs.  That only cemented Fidel's power.  The people adored him for standing up to the US.  The same thing would happen in Venezuela, in my opinion: Maduro would gain support.  The other Latin American countries are not requesting an American intervention.  Until that happens, let the sanctions have their effect.   

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On 8/31/2018 at 9:22 AM, jose chalhoub said:

All i can say about this discussion is that venezuelan people in its majority is considered too pro U.S. so in any prospect of an intervention the U.S. forces need to be very careful about its targets and not incurring in those damn "collateral damages" like in Belgrade for example. This is a scenario i dont really want for Venezuela, but definitely another one more precise and accurate in order to push these criminals out of power that have sequestered Venezuela. 

¿Too pro US?  Who says that?  I'll answer my own question:  the Chavistas/Maduristas.  It's been 19 years since Chávez won a fair election by making promises to the poor... and he kept those promises by expropriating everything in sight and borrowing billions, and not investing anything in oil infrastructure.  Now the chickens come home to roost and it's an international conspiracy.  Yeah, right!  

However, I think I can see the light at the end of the tunnel: the Venezuelan military.  As the country sinks lower in the recession, the rank and file military are being neglected by their superiors because the latter are having a hard time bleeding the country by their corruption.  Perhaps that will be the solution.

I mentioned 19 years of Chavismo.  I imagine there are lots of younger people that don't know anything but Chavismo (As happened in Cuba).  They hear stories from their elders and from others who have already left.  What will it take?

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2 hours ago, Glenn Ellis said:

General/President Eisenhower and Allan Dulles (his brother JOHN FOSTER DULLES was Ike's Secretary of State at the time)  had that same strategy, which led to JFK holding the bag @ The Bay Of Pigs, in 1961. The Fidelistas knew all about it, having Cuban intell agents in the CIA training camps in Honduras & Nicaragua. Fidel puffed on his cigar during the whole episode. Sadly, an American pilot lost his life, as the president only authorized six fighter jets, no markings, to cover the boatload of "liberators" on the beach.

I have listened, to the tape of the presidents condolence call, to that pilots widow.

A sitting U.S. Senator in 1958-1960, having NO knowledge of the plan before being elected President.........Hmmmm, wonder then why after the failed "invasion" Dulles & John McCone abruptly left the CIA?

But I digress.

With  Rosneft holding a 49% stake in Citgo, with the Chinese having a significant interest in oil or cash for their investment in Venezuela, wonder what THEIR reaction would be to a USA led "intervention"? NOT to mention the Fidelistas..........

As I have said earlier, in another post, the same failed logic, got us into difficulty in many parts of the world. Sadly, I was an instrument of that policy.

The result is always the same.......

If Nelson Rockafeller, Howard Hughes, and Erle P. Halliburton were alive today,

SOCNY, Hughes Tool Co, and Halliburton, might lead the way.

They did, after WWII.

Glen, It bothers me that the Venezuelan people have not begun to stand up against Maduro as of yet.  That’s what inspired my earlier questions for Jose our man on the ground there.  His answers were loud and clear.

The hawk in me says let’s go but discretion dictates deferring to past experience and wisdom such as your own.  The Venezuelans must shed their own blood and treasure first and demonstrate they are all in for freedom from socialist repression and truly want our assistance in their own fight for self determination before we commit to force.  

As to the Russians and Chinese, frankly, I don’t give a damn.  As stated before, we don’t need to allow them a foothold in our neighborhood.  Nuts to them.  

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On 8/31/2018 at 10:38 AM, Mike Marcellus said:

Dan, Thank you, I do appreciate different opinions, mostly because they offer the most opportunity for growing my own knowledge.   But let me try again, ....you come home to find a complete stranger in your house with your family.  He says he's there to help.

Your reply to him is what?

My kids are starving. I never feed them. Tomorrow I come home to find a stranger in my house offering my starving children food. I might be extremely irritated. In fact I might be hostile and aggressive. My kids, however, would likely be thankful. that stranger might not have the right, but they certainly would have the obligation. 

 

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15 hours ago, TXPower said:

Glen, It bothers me that the Venezuelan people have not begun to stand up against Maduro as of yet.  That’s what inspired my earlier questions for Jose our man on the ground there.  His answers were loud and clear.

The hawk in me says let’s go but discretion dictates deferring to past experience and wisdom such as your own.  The Venezuelans must shed their own blood and treasure first and demonstrate they are all in for freedom from socialist repression and truly want our assistance in their own fight for self determination before we commit to force.  

As to the Russians and Chinese, frankly, I don’t give a damn.  As stated before, we don’t need to allow them a foothold in our neighborhood.  Nuts to them.  

ABSOLUTELY ! My sentiment(s) exactly.

BUT, knowing what I do about "OIL DIPLOMACY" neither the Russians, Chinese, or the Fidelistas, will react kindly to our "humanitarian" intervention, whilst I assume, we extract payment, in the form of Orinoco Belt heavy crude.

To my knowledge, the Russians don't need the oil, as they export more than they use at home., The Chinese, are in the process of developing their own natural resources, for their peoples growing consumption. I don't think either the Russians or the Chinese would be willing to risk another "Missile Crisis" in Venezuela.The emerging markets in India, Pakistan, Malaysia and Indonesia are another matter. They are hungry for oil and don't care where it comes from.

But I digress.

The fact of the matter is, that Gulf Coast refineries long ago, adapted processes to take on the heavy Venezuelan crude production from the Orinoco belt.

The Orinoco Belt production is as prolific as the Permian Basin in West Texas.

Not many refineries are equipped to handle it without dilution by naptha.

We should see tankers loading in the area soon. A dock was damaged by accident just last week, but should be repaired within a short time.

Will the oil revenue translate to relief for the Venezuelan people?

Or will Maduro, Rameriez and their cronies, continue to line their pockets, at the peoples expense?

Chavez and his Clown/Clone Maduro sold the people a bill of goods.

Only the people can turn the tide, UNESCO and the OAS can help with food, medicine, etc.

THEN, either peaceful change can come, or revolution, it will be THEIR choice.

AS  I stated earlier in another post, my father was there for the one in 1948.

He was there for the one in Bogata also. I have the perspective from his eyes.

But that's another story.

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Once they stop being able to feed the military Venezuela might turn into the the next Chile 1973.

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Quote

Fist of all I think that we need to define the difference between oil “RESERVES” and “RESOURCES”. Reserves are those resources in place that that can be produced technically, physically, economically and politically. There is no doubt that the technology exists to produce the extra heavy oil of the Orinoco Basin. Lack of maintenance of the upgraders, transportation and port infrastructure is threatening the physical ability to produce, upgrade, transport and ship that oil. The absolute crisis at PDVSA where lack of investment, management, know how and massive flight of employees is threatening the ability to produce oil economically. The absolute ignorance and corruption of the political leadership threatens the ability to finance exploration and production activities as well as the ability to hire experienced management and personnel. Therefore without going into further detail the “RESERVES” of Venezuela are much lower than those claimed by PDVSA.

Unless there is a radical change, that will probably also require a significant political change, Venezuela’s “RESERVES” and oil production will continue to drop to the point that exports will eventually cease completely.

I suspect that without oil export revenues the regime will be unable to hold on to its power base paving the way for political change and the renaissance of the Venezuelan oil industry. Lets hope that it happens sooner rather than later for the sake of the Venezuelan People.

 

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